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Investment cost estimates and investment decisions
Abstract
When evaluating new investment projects, oil companies traditionally use the discounted cashflow method. This method requires expected cashflows in the numerator and a risk-adjusted required rate of return in the denominator in order to calculate net present value. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a project is one of the major cashflows used to calculate net present value. Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. In the oil industry and many other industries, it is a common practice to report a CAPEX that is the estimated 50/50 (median) CAPEX instead of the estimated expected (expected value) CAPEX. In this article, we demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX, when the cost distributions are asymmetric, causes project valuation errors and therefore may lead to wrong investment decisions with acceptance of projects that have negative net present values.
... In this section some of the economic indicators used will be listed (Table I). [4] Net present value [5] Internal rate of return [6] Return on investment [6] Payback period [7] Benefit cost ratio [4] Capital cost [4] Operation & Maintenance costs Concerning the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) it is an indicator that is frequently used for renewable energy projects. The levelised cost of electricity is the average cost over the lifetime of the plant per MWh of electricity generated [9]. ...
... In this section some of the economic indicators used will be listed (Table I). [4] Net present value [5] Internal rate of return [6] Return on investment [6] Payback period [7] Benefit cost ratio [4] Capital cost [4] Operation & Maintenance costs Concerning the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) it is an indicator that is frequently used for renewable energy projects. The levelised cost of electricity is the average cost over the lifetime of the plant per MWh of electricity generated [9]. ...
... In this section some of the economic indicators used will be listed (Table I). [4] Net present value [5] Internal rate of return [6] Return on investment [6] Payback period [7] Benefit cost ratio [4] Capital cost [4] Operation & Maintenance costs Concerning the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) it is an indicator that is frequently used for renewable energy projects. The levelised cost of electricity is the average cost over the lifetime of the plant per MWh of electricity generated [9]. ...
... It was observed that median and modal values were being used as input parameters rather than mean values. This is an issue that is well known in the area of project management literature (Emhjellen, Emhjellen and Osmundsen, 2001). The statistical distribution of many parameters used in ore reserves estimates (and in concomitant feasibility studies) are heavily skewed (similar to the tails grade values in Figure 6; skewed to the FIG 6 – Distribution of 18 months historical shift tails gold grade for Mine C. right or 'positively' skewed), and study managers have a bias for using modal or median values rather than mean values as they don't believe that the larger mean values are true. ...
... By default, the estimated mean of a system of individual components will be underestimated. This underestimate ignores the further effects of project selection bias: @BULLET typically, the projects with the most optimistic internal cost estimates will be pursued by the investing fi rm @BULLET during tender selection, competition sees to it that tenders with pessimistic and realistic cost estimates are ruled out (Emhjellen, Emhjellen and Osmundsen, 2001). Is it any wonder that ten per cent of large projects overrun their budgets by 70 per cent or more (Hollmann, 2014)? ...
Recognising that the mining industry is wedded to the break-even cut-off grade rather than a cut-off grade that optimises value, the author examines some perils and pitfalls in the use of break-even grades that lead to what the author calls “negatively geared ore reserves”.
Negatively geared ore reserves occur when a portion of the ore reserves actually has a negative value and is effectively being subsidised by the more profitable portion of the ore reserves. This situation is generally difficult to detect with the level of information available to the public investor. The ore reserves can still be quite profitable in total – but now possess a level of risk that may not be appreciated.
The risk profile (financial risk) of a negatively geared ore reserve is far greater than for a non-negative geared ore reserve. Like a negatively geared investment property in a falling property market (for readers familiar with the Australian tax minimisation investment strategy), when the price of a commodity falls, a company that possesses a negatively geared ore reserve loses value at a magnified rate relative to a company that has a neutral or positively geared ore reserve. In the extreme case of a major commodity price reduction – for example as happened with the gold price in mid-2013 – the negatively geared ore reserve can easily become negative value in total, not just in part.
The negatively geared ore reserve is sometimes intentional – in order to increase published ore reserve tonnages and meet the CEO’s key performance indicators (KPIs) – but is also often unintentional, resulting from various errors in the break-even calculation. Common errors in calculating a break-even grade include using fixed metallurgical recoveries, not including allowances for ideal laboratory versus real plant results, ignoring available operational data, and using modal rather than mean parameter values in cost and performance calculations.
This paper examines a common value distribution profile in many ore reserves, and the effect of common break-even grade errors on this profile.
... However, observations clearly indicate an overrepresentation of cost overruns. This is due to two types of selection bias : (1) project selection; it is typically the projects with the most optimistic internal cost estimates that are being pursued by an investor, and (2) tender selection; competition sees to it that tenders with pessimistic and realistic cost estimates are ruled out [7]. ...
... (11)-(13) were used and finally they were substituted into Eqs. (14) and (7). The training data in Fig. 3 were applied to RBF and MLP in Matlab 6.0 Neural Network Toolbox. ...
Multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) artificial neural networks (ANN) are used to model economic analysis of risky projects and are presented in this paper. Analytical models of risky projects are investigated and neural network function approximation results are compared. A general, problem independent ANNs are developed for the normalized input values for risky projects. The expected cost value and variance are the outputs of the ANNs. The simulation results of RBF and MLP with respect to a mathematical model are shown and concluded.
... Therefore, the mean, or the expected value, can be significantly higher than the median. Emhjellen et al. [36] demonstrated that the mean can be 20% above the median in a cost estimate with a positive skew and they argued that the practice of using the median instead of the mean could explain part of the observed overruns in many projects. ...
Cost overruns are a threat to project performance
and continue to attract interest in both the popular media and the
academic literature. Numerous studies from all continents have
demonstrated that overruns remain prevalent in all industries.
Although there are different suggestions as to what are the main
causes of this problem, few studies have demonstrated what can be
done to improve cost performance. This article provides evidence
that improved cost estimation methodologies combined with external
quality assurance can significantly reduce the extent of cost
overruns in projects. The authors use data from 96 government
projects in Norway, which implemented a quality assurance regime
for large investment projects in the year 2000. The results showthat
cost performance was reasonably good. Only c. 25% of the projects
subject to the regime experienced cost overruns. This suggests that
by using proper cost estimation methodologies that are embedded
in a governance framework that ensures that projects are subject
to external scrutiny, the risks of cost overruns can be significantly
reduced. The results should be encouraging for project owners who
may have the impression that overrun is an unavoidable part of
project delivery.
... An interesting comparison was published by Emhjellen [17], who dealt with the difference of values when setting different limits of normal distribution and their effect on the resulting values. Kumar [18] noted that the concessionaire aims to bear minimal cost, so maximum probability occurs at lower cost values, and hence it followed a lognormal probability distribution. ...
This article deals with the partial outputs of large-scale infrastructure project risk assessment, specifically in the field of road and motorway construction. The Department of Transport spends a large amount of funds on project preparation and implementation, which however, must be allocated effectively, and with knowledge of the risks that may accompany them. Therefore, documentation for decision-making on project financing also includes their analysis. This article monitors the frequency of occurrence of individual risk factors within the qualitative risk analysis, with the support of the national risk register, and identifies dependent variables that represent part of the economic cash flows for determining project economic efficiency. At the same time, it compares these dependent variables identified by sensitivity analysis with critical variables, followed by testing the interaction of the critical variables’ effect on the project efficiency using the Monte Carlo method. A partial section of the research was focused on the analysis of the probability distribution of input variables, especially “the investment costs” and “time savings of infrastructure users” variables. The research findings conclude that it is necessary to pay attention to the setting of statistical characteristics of variables entering the economic efficiency indicator calculations, as the decision of whether or not to accept projects for funding is based on them.
... Many reasons like unclear project assumptions in early phase, optimistic interpolation of previous project assumptions, too optimistic estimates, and underestimation of uncertainty were given as reasons for overruns. Emhjellen et al. (2002) highlight the possibility that the cost overruns can also be related to an error in the estimation and reporting of capex. Usually the capex is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. ...
Development projects in the oil industry often have cost overruns. Through analysis of data from Norwegian development projects in the petroleum industry, this paper investigates the common effect of business cycle developments on cost overruns. Lack of capacity and expertise in a tight supplier market yield cost inflation and difficulties in managing projects. Unlike previous analyses of cost overruns, we analyze projects over a long time period to capture the cyclical effects. We document a statistically significant positive relationship between oil price developments and cost overruns, and a positive relationship between changes in number of employees in the sector and cost overruns. We also show that surprises to the oil price during the project implementation having a larger impact on cost overruns than the oil price level itself. Cost overrun ultimately leads to reduced competitiveness for the industry, and we discuss consequences and policy implications for business and society of these cost overruns.
... From this, probability distributions were constructed, relying on triangular distributions. As argued in Biegler et al. (2011), andEmhjellen et al. (2002), in view of a lack of data, triangular distributions are valid for representing preferences over a certain value with symmetric or asymmetric variations around it. Appendix A contains further details of the modelling set-up and key assumptions. ...
Policy goals to transition national energy systems to meet decarbonisation and security goals must contend with multiple overlapping uncertainties. These uncertainties are pervasive through the complex nature of the system, the long term consequences of decisions, and in the models and analytical approaches used. These greatly increase the challenges of informing robust decision making. Energy system studies have tended not to address uncertainty in a systematic manner, relying on simple scenario or sensitivity analysis. This paper utilises an innovative UK energy system model, ESME, which characterises multiple uncertainties via probability distributions and propagates these uncertainties to explore trade-offs in cost effective energy transition scenarios. A linked global sensitivity analysis is used to explore the uncertainties that have most impact on the transition. The analysis highlights the strong impact of uncertainty on delivering the required emission reductions, and the need for an appropriate carbon price. Biomass availability, gas prices and nuclear capital costs emerge as critical uncertainties in delivering emission reductions. Further developing this approach for policy requires an iterative process to ensure a complete understanding and representation of different uncertainties in meeting mitigation policy objectives.
... Back et al. (2000) estimated parameters of the triangular PDF of historical cost data for probabilistic scheduling. Emhjellen et al. (2002) claimed that applying the expected value is more appropriate for estimating investment cost, than the median value. In addition, a range estimating method was used for simultaneously implementing probabilistic scheduling and estimating. ...
Dynamic and volatile characteristics are the most significant factors that distinguish the construction industry from other fields. Many researchers have endeavored to deal with uncertainty caused by the above factors, and significant outcomes have been obtained, owing to the innovative methodologies of data handling. With the help of powerful data processing, enormous information, which is effective in coping with uncertainty, could be gained. During the last three decades, the housing industry in Korea has boomed, resulting in huge data generation. More precise estimation is required at the initiative phase to support decision-making on the possibilities of realization of projects. For more accurate estimation, a Range Estimating Model based on time series analysis is developed and suggested. This paper is organized into three main sections. In the first section, unit prices of residential building projects turn out to be time-dependent, from analysis of the Durbin-Watson ratio. The second section explores i) analysis of stationarity, ii) model development, and iii) model validation and application. In this process, this paper suggests appropriate time series models, such as the ARIMA, and Monte Carlo Simulation using the predicted unit prices. In order to validate the proposed model, priced bills of quantities of 150 housing projects are analyzed, and the results of a t-test on relative accuracies indicates that the proposed model is more accurate than the conventional range estimating technique, using historical cost data, and ignoring price fluctuations.
... assumptions about capital costs and future revenues (Emhjellen et al., 2002;Muñ oz et al., 2009), possibly including revenue from policies like feed-in tariffs or emissions trading (Laurikka and Koljonen, 2006). However, many renewable or low-carbon projects entail substantial uncertainties, for example in the realization of future revenues or in how the technology will interface with existing technological systems (Hoff, 1997). ...
The carbon market experiences of Brazil and India represent policy success stories under several criteria. A careful evaluation, however, reveals challenges to market development that should be addressed in order to make the rollout of a post-2012 CDM more effective. We conducted firm-level interviews covering 82 CDM plants in the sugar and cement sectors in Brazil and India, focusing on how individual managers understood the potential benefits and risks of undertaking clean development mechanism (CDM) investments. Our results indicate that the CDM operates in a far more complex way in practice than that of simply adding a marginal increment to a project's internal rate of return. Our results indicate the following: first, although anticipated revenue played a central role in most managers' decisions to pursue CDM investments, there was no standard practice to account for financial benefits of CDM investments; second, some managers identified non-financial reputational factors as their primary motivation for pursuing CDM projects; and third, under fluctuating regulatory regimes with real immediate costs and uncertain CDM revenue, managers favored projects that often did not require carbon revenue to be viable. The post-2012 CDM architecture can benefit from incorporating these insights, and in particular reassess goals for strict additionality and mechanisms for achieving it.
... This is a particularly relevant issue for immature groundbreaking projects like the CCS development at Kårstø. It has been considered in Emhjellen et al (2002 Emhjellen et al ( , 2003). In practice, overruns are more likely than savings. ...
Summary The article presents a commercial investment analysis of the carbon capture project at the Kårstø gas processing plant in south-western Norway. We update an earlier analysis and critically review the methods used--including those applied for cost estimating. Our conclusion is that carbon capture and storage (CCS) at Kårstø would be a very unprofitable climate measure with poor cost efficiency. It would require more than USD 1.7 billion1 in subsidies, or in excess of USD 133 million per year. That corresponds to a subsidy of roughly USD 0.1 per kWh on the power station's electricity output. The cost per tonne of carbon emissions abated is about USD 333, which is about 20 times the international carbon emission allowance price and many times higher than alternative domestic climate measures.
... Effective and efficient investment can boost the economy and promote social development, as in [2]. Accordingly, research on the investment decision is universally concerned and it has got many achievements, as in [3]–[6]. Through systematic analysis, investment can be rationally structured and efficiently utilized, which is able to stimulate economic growth. ...
In macro investment, an investment decision model is established by using an improved back propagation (BP) artificial neural network (ANN). In this paper, the relations between elements of investment and output of products are determined, and then the optimal distribution of investment is determined by adjusting the distributions rationally. This model can reflect the highly nonlinear mapping relations among each element of investment by using nonlinear utility functions to improve the architecture of artificial neural network, which can be widely applied in investment problems.
There are the distribution of enlarged indicators costs for the multifunctional business center with a hotel and sports complex in Nizhny Novgorod. This facility was designed for the 2018 FIFA World Cup hosted by the Russian Federation. Construction period lasted four years starting in 2014. Authors have described the distribution of various stages total costs for this type of buildings. Researchers have investigated the estimated costs of salary fund and materials sections for all multifunctional building construction’s stages. Authors have deeply analyzed the capital costs for engineering parts of this type of building. The most expensive engineering systems were identified and described by researchers in field of salary fund and purchasing equipment and materials sections. Authors have described the modern and promising ways to improve the comfort and environmental friendliness of civil and industrial buildings. There is the description of additional costs for modern devices which are included in the other low electric systems section. The main trends in improving area of building engineering system efficiency were outlined in this paper. Also, there are the trends in improving field of building’s enclosing structures. This article will be of interest for economists, developers and investment companies that are involved in assessing the cost of capital investments to multifunctional buildings construction process with various purposes.
Predictions of time (e.g., work hours) are often based on the aggregation of estimates of elements (e.g., activities and subtasks). The only types of estimates that can be safely aggregated by summation are those reflecting predicted average outcomes (expected values). The sums of other types of estimates, such as bounds of confidence intervals or estimates of the mode, do not have the same interpretation as their components (e.g., the sum of the 90% upper bounds is not the appropriate 90% upper bound of the sum). The present research shows that this can be a potential source of bias in predictions of time. In Studies 1 and 2, professionals with experience in estimation provided total estimates of time that were inconsistent with their estimates of individual tasks. Study 3 shows that this inconsistency can be attributed to improper aggregation of time estimates and demonstrates how this can produce both overestimation and underestimation—and also confidence intervals that are far too wide. Study 4 suggests that the results may reflect a more general fallacy in the aggregation of probabilistic quantities. The inconsistencies and biases appear to be largely driven by a tendency to naïvely sum (2 + 2 = 4) probabilistic (stochastic) values. This summation fallacy may be consequential in contexts where informal estimation methods (expert judgment) are used.
This analysis quantifies the impact of capital cost estimation methodologies and probability distributions on the 20-year net present values (NPV) of six thermochemical cellulosic biofuel pathways. It reviews the methodologies and distributions employed in the open literature, and compares the latter with those reported for existing energy projects. A sensitivity analysis calculates the impact of methodology choice on the NPV of each pathway scenario and an uncertainty analysis calculates the impact of probability distribution choice on the same. The sensitivity analysis finds that the choice of pessimistic or optimistic estimation methodology changes NPV by up to $300 million. The uncertainty analysis finds that the representation of capital cost by asymmetrical probability distributions increases the standard deviations of the 20-year NPV cumulative distribution functions by up to 35% relative to symmetrical distributions. Finally, recommendations are given to improve capital cost calculations in cellulosic biofuel techno-economic analyses.
The non-Gazprom gas producers (NGPs) doubled their share of the Russian domestic gas market between 2000 and 2010 and have continued growing since then. For several years especially Novatek expanded. More recently, Rosneft has emerged as a key player, not least through its purchase of TNK-BP. This article begins with an overview of the companies in the Russian gas sector, their resource bases and capacities, and subsequently examines whether differences in field development costs and export market access may make it rational for Gazprom to continue ceding market share to the NGPs. With rising costs of Gazprom's queue of greenfield developments, any delays in Gazprom's investment program may be compensated through increased NGP production. The article argues that the NGPs are ready to fill the gap, may be allowed to do so and are already increasing their market share in an increasingly competitive market. The stage may now be set for a continued gradual transformation of the Russian gas market, in which the interests of Gazprom and the NGPs may be complementary or may be pitted against each other, but those of the Russian Federation are in any case likely to be better fulfilled than in the past.
Recently, a Norwegian government report on the cost overruns North Sea projects was presented (NOU 1999:11). It concluded that there was a 25% increase in development costs from project sanction (POD, Plan for Operation and Development) to last CCE (Capital Cost Estimate) for the 11 oil field projects investigated. Many reasons like unclear project assumptions in early phase, optimistic interpolation of previous project assumptions, optimistic estimates, and underestimation of uncertainty were given as reasons for overruns. In this paper we highlight the possibility that the cost overruns are not necessarily all due to the reasons given, but also to an error in the estimation and reporting of the capital expenditure cost (CAPEX). Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. The oil companies report, and are required to do so by government authorities, the estimated 50/50 (median) cost estimate instead of the estimated expected value cost estimate. We demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX estimate for the 11 projects, when the cost uncertainty distributions are asymmetric, may explain at least part of the “overruns.” Hence, we advocate changing the practice of using 50/50 cost estimates instead of expected value cost estimates for project management and decision purposes.
The main topic of this article is how financial incentives can impact focus on safety. The case used is the relationship between the operator of a petroleum license and a drilling contractor. Focus is placed on how an operator can influence the actions of a drilling contractor with the aid of financial incentives both in connection with hiring in rigs and contract design. Furthermore, the article examines how these incentives can influence the contractor's focus on safety.
The report is based in part on contract and incentive theory – see e.g. Laffont and Tirole (1989) and Salanié (1999) – and in part on empirical data. The empirical basis consists of various drilling contracts utilized on the Norwegian and British shelves, as well as meetings and informal conversations with representatives of oil companies, rig companies and safety administrators.
There are some general development trends in the offshore sector; such as outsourcing, focus on financial indicators and increased focus on incentive-based compensation schemes, that have led to an increased emphasis on incentive clauses in contracts, thus making this topic even more relevant. The growing degree of outsourcing has meant that transactions previously conducted within the same organization are now governed by means of contracts between independent companies. We also see an increasing degree of management by objectives in the companies, including increased emphasis on financial indicators. One of the effects of this change appears to be a growing emphasis on financial performance on a quarterly and annual basis. This management by objectives is followed up internally within the companies and in contracts between independent companies, in part through the formulation of incentive agreements.
normally be executed by private players, for whom decision criteria developed from a commercial perspective are important. But such criteria are also important for the government in calculating the size of subsidies required for various measures. A ranking of different solutions in a socio-economic context must rest on calculations made from a commercial perspective. Examples of the subjects covered include the calculation of abatement unit costs and cost estimating for climate projects. The carbon capture project at the Kårstø gas-fired power station in south-west Norway is used as a case throughout the analysis.
Oil project assessment using separate cash flow valuation (Jacoby and Laughton, 1992; Laughton and Jacoby, 1993; Emhjellen and Alaouze, 2002), presumes that the present value of the cost cash flow of oil projects can be calculated using a risk free rate. This paper examines whether this practise, at least to a first approximation, is reasonable. More specifically, the paper examines whether labour wage hours costs and steel prices -- as cost factors in the investment cost stream -- are systematic risk factors (i.e., have a beta different from zero). The paper also investigates whether oil price as a factor in the revenue stream is a systematic revenue factor. Separate cash flow evaluation has been discussed in relation to petroleum taxation. A petroleum tax commission in Norway stated that tax reductions due to depreciation should separately be discounted by a risk free rate. We discuss the role of partial cash flow discounting in tax design.
In risk management of complex procurement projects in construction, the buyer can affect the level of risk by careful project specification, or shift risk over to the supplier. Each of the alternatives imply costs for the buyer. The major specification cost is the reduction in net present value due to postponing of the project. Risk sharing by the buyer is costly even if the buyer is risk neutral, since lower risk exposure for the contractor implies weaker incentives and higher construction costs. We model this trade-off in a risk sharing model with endogenous risk.
Renewable energy continues to be a hot topic in the United States affecting security and sustainability. A model to create renewable energy portfolio is established using guidelines drawn by Oregon’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) legislation with the objective of responding to a 25% of the state electricity demand by renewable resources in 2025. The fuzzy goal programming model is adaptable to accommodate changes in energy costs and future advances in technology maturity. It can also take into consideration the preferences of policy-makers and stakeholders. This model can help to reveal the costs and benefits of complex decisions regarding renewable energy.
Distinguishing between idiosyncratic and systematic risk, and taking into account that the government is only able to monitor the companies’ efforts to reduce costs and increase extraction in an imperfect way (moral hazard), criteria for optimal risk sharing between the Norwegian government and the petroleum companies are examined. The Norwegian practice is compared with the theoretical recommendations, and it is suggested that deviations can be explained by political constraints.
In risk management of complex procurement projects in construction, the buyer can affect the level of risk by careful project specification, or shift risk over to the supplier. Each of the alternatives imply costs for the buyer. The major specification cost is the reduction in net present value due to postponing of the project. Risk sharing by the buyer is costly even if the buyer is risk neutral, since lower risk exposure for the contractor implies weaker incentives and higher construction costs. We model this trade-off in a risk sharing model with endogenous risk.
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