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Modelling the supply of ecosystem services from agriculture: A minimum-data approach
Abstract
We argue that to support agriculture-environmental policy decision making, stakeholders need 'quantitative back-of-the-envelope' analysis that is timely and sufficiently accurate to make informed decisions. We apply this concept to the analysis of the supply of ecosystem services from agriculture. We present a spatially explicit production model and show how it can be used to derive the supply of ecosystem services in a region. This model shows that the supply of ecosystem services can be derived from the spatial distribution of opportunity cost of providing those services. We then show how this conceptual model can be used to develop a minimum-data (MD) approach to the analysis of the supply of ecosystem services from agriculture that can be implemented with the kinds of secondary data that are available in most parts of the world. We apply the MD approach to simulate the supply of carbon that could be sequestered in agricultural soils in the dryland grain-producing region of Montana. We find that the supply curve derived from the MD approach can approximate the supply curve obtained from a more elaborate model based on site-specific data, and can do so with sufficient accuracy for policy analysis. Copyright Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2006.
... However, the literature regarding their economic benefits as well as their potential for adoption, especially in the dry areas of the MENA region, is scanty. This paper uses the TOA-MD approach (Antle and Valdivia, 2006) for an ex-ante analysis of the economic returns and the potential for adoption of SRMP in the Syrian Badia. The TOA-MD approach has already been used in a number of studies which analyze the economic viability of the introduction of different new technologies or practices and the role of PES in enhancing their adoption (Adiku et al., 2015;Rao et al., 2015;Homann-Kee Tui et al., 2014, Ilukor et al., 2014Antle et al., 2010;Torero et al., 2010;Claessens et al., 2009). ...
... While this is true of virtually all economic analysis based on an economic rationality assumption, the TOA-MD is unique in that the analysis of choices is performed for a population of farms. Thus, it is based on the parsimonious characterization of the distribution of returns in the population (Antle and Valdivia, 2006) where it is designed to take into account spatial heterogeneity within the population (Claessens et al., 2009). ...
... Despite the lower level of accuracy compared to more rigorous and more complex mathematical programming and simulation models, the difficulty of quantifying the magnitudes of a large number of sources of uncertainty give the TOA-MD approach a considerable advantage. Its timeliness, low cost of implementation, and its simplicity and transparency make it an attractive method to apply in data-scarce contexts (Antle and Valdivia, 2006). By making an assumption about the distribution of the opportunity cost of adoption for each stratum of the population (as defined by the (2010) analyst), the TOA-MD model generates predictions of adoption under different scenarios. ...
Large-scale mismanagement of natural resources emanating from lack of appropriate policies and regulatory framework is arguably one of the reasons that led to resource degradation and poor livelihoods in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Sustainable rangeland management practices (SRMPs) are considered to be a solution to feed shortages and rangeland degradation. However, the scope for SRMP adoption, has been a subject of debate. Using a case study from Syria and the application of the Minimum Data Analysis method (TOA-MD), this paper provides empirical evidence for ensuring wider adoption of SRMP. The paper argues that the introduction of financial incentives in the form of payments for agricultural-environmental services can increase the economic viability and enhance the adoption of SRMPs and is a better alternative to the unsustainable state subsidies for fodder purchases and barley cultivation on rangelands. Model results indicate that further investment in research toward generating low cost technologies and tailored governance strategies including a financial incentive system would lead to better management of rangelands and improve livelihoods in the Syrian Badia. These findings are valuable for policy makers, donors as well as development and extension practitioners in the MENA region as they can better inform future courses of actions.
... Moreover, the complexity of the models being introduced should align with present or realistic projections of the technical competencies of government researchers and expected cost allocations to undertake studies. In this case, implementing more costly and elaborate modelling approaches may be prohibitively expensive (Antle and Valdivia, 2006). ...
... The theoretical model of acceptability was developed using the best practice-data minimum approach reported by Boateng et al. (2018) and Antle and Valdivia (2006), based on an iterative process with three phases referring to (1) selection of component and validation of construct, (2) scale development and (3) scale validation. ...
Measuring healthcare acceptability presents conceptual and contextual challenges, particularly in data-poor Multi-Island Microstates (MIMS). Thus, there has been limited evidence on acceptability of healthcare in MIMS, and scarce use of acceptability metrics in policy design and health system evaluation. In the present study, we developed and empirically validated a theoretical framework for measuring users' acceptability of healthcare in a Multi-Island Microstate in the Caribbean. Using a minimum-data approach, we used synoptic review of healthcare literature and consultations with experts and health system stakeholders to define, scope and select constructs for the theoretical framework of healthcare acceptability. Empirical validation of the modelled framework was performed using data collected from household expenditure and healthcare utilization surveys in Carriacou and Petite Martinique (n = 226), island dependents of Grenada in the Caribbean. Data were used to create health utilization profiles and analyse measurement scales of the healthcare acceptability framework using non-linear partial-least square structural equation modelling. The modelled framework included 17-items integrating economic and psychosocial concepts, with one dependent construct (utilization) and 3 independent constructs (users' perception, experience, and knowledge of health facility). Model analysis and validation indicated that the framework was significant, explaining 19% of the variation in healthcare acceptability. Users' experience construct was influenced by perception and knowledge of health facility, and was the only construct with a significant negative relationship with acceptability. Healthcare acceptability declined with increased waiting and travel times, and unsuitable opening hours. We conclude that acceptability comprises of a complex multidimensional concept, which is highly dependent on various interacting variables and contextual characteristics of the health system. Therefore, policies and actions to improve acceptability should be context specific and focused on evaluating factors infringing healthcare acceptability. Routine acceptability and/or satisfaction studies represent baseline evidence towards understanding and integrating acceptability in healthcare assessment.
... Systems models, which can be more readily applied at scale, hold great potential for addressing the complexity and uncertainty challenges in assessing long-run sustainability in land systems (Antle and Valdivia, 2006). Systems models can be strongly linked to quantitative global scenarios by taking estimates of key drivers as inputs into simulations of land-use change over time and space (Busch, 2006), with sustainability outcomes calculated via linkage to biophysical models. ...
... Systems models can be strongly linked to quantitative global scenarios by taking estimates of key drivers as inputs into simulations of land-use change over time and space (Busch, 2006), with sustainability outcomes calculated via linkage to biophysical models. Most applications have occurred at catchment scale (Antle and Valdivia, 2006;Bohnet et al., 2011;Crossman et al., 2012;Luo et al., 2005;Summers et al., 2012Summers et al., , 2015a. For example, Briner et al. (Briner et al., 2012(Briner et al., , 2013) combined a crop model, forest growth model, and a profitmaximising land allocation model to estimate competition between forest and agriculture and the trade-offs for ecosystem services under climatic and socio-economic scenarios to 2080 for the Visp valley in Switzerland. ...
Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook acomprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future.
... Over the years, successive regulation policies have affected the sub sector, with considerably diminishing returns from tobacco growing. The reduction in farm returns may induce farmers to seek economically viable alternative crops, which implies that any rational farmer will forego tobacco for an alternative crop only if the alternative has the higher economic value (Antle and Valdivia 2006;Antle et al. 2010). ...
Tobacco is grown on more than 4 million hectares of global agricultural land in at least 124 countries. As a member state to the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) international treaty, Uganda seeks to support economically viable alternative activities as a means to tobacco control because previous efforts with tobacco control that focused on the demand side have failed to control tobacco supply. This study employed the Tradeoff Analysis-Minimum Data (TOA-MD) model to assess tradeoffs and associated economic impacts of switching from tobacco to alternative crops in smallholder cropping systems. Results revealed that switching from tobacco to alternative crops is economically feasible for most of the farms owing to the higher net economic returns. The proportion of farms that expect higher returns from alternative crops is highest for cassava (97%) followed by maize (87%), rice (83%) and the least for beans (74%). Cassava is the best alternative for both small and large farms because of the highest gains in farm net returns, per capita income and poverty reduction. The next feasible crop alternatives for large farms are maize and rice. Despite their economic feasibility, alternative crops are typical of uncertain markets with unorganised structures for production. Since these are important incentives for tobacco farmers, the study recommends development of institutions that foster value chain development for alternative crops. Supporting agro-processors is likely to guarantee markets and provide for lump-sum payments, input credit for production and a reliable extension service system as way of incentivizing a sustainable switch to alternative cropping systems. ARTICLE HISTORY
... ES supply is primarily influenced by natural conditions, geographical location, biodiversity and human activities, whereas the demand escalates with the growth of population and economy (Xie et al. 2024). Scholarly inquiry has skewed towards analysing the supply aspect of ESs (Antlle and Valdivia 2006;Teixeira et al. 2019;Jiang et al. 2022). In recent years, there has been a shift towards comprehending the interplay between supply and demand (Maron et al. 2017;Ma et al. 2019), particularly as the degradation of ecological systems and associated ES flows have negatively impacted human well-being, drawing attention to the demand side. ...
Ecosystem services (ESs) are a pivotal interface between ecological and societal systems. Comprehending the balance between what nature offers and society demands is indispensable for fostering human prosperity. This study seeks to fill the gaps in existing knowledge, including inconsistencies in terminology, limited exploration of driving mechanisms, and the lack of a comprehensive management strategy framework in ES supply and demand research. The article comprehensively reviews the conceptual connotations and assessment methods related to ES supply and demand. The paper delves into the specific traits of studies examining the interplay between supply and demand, focusing on relationship identification, driving mechanisms, threshold effects and management strategies. And the review articulates a theoretical framework to examine the interplay of ES supply and demand as well as emphasises directions for further research. The results show that: (1) a unified definition for ES supply and demand has yet to be agreed upon. The critical part played by humans in ES supply is often neglected, and there is a corresponding scarcity of demand evaluations for such services. (2) Previous research has identified trade-offs and synergies, analysed underlying forces and threshold effects, and proposed management strategies for the dynamics between ES supply and demand based on quantitative assessment. (3) Prospectively, the beneficiaries need to be considered more. Additional research is required to explore in-depth the underlying processes of multi-scale ES supply and demand. Adaptive management provides opportunities for ecosystem management.
... To address the challenge of limited observational data for hemp production, we use an ex ante minimum data (exMD) method that can be implemented with available data from secondary sources to parameterize our economic simulation model. In this approach, we combine the minimum data concepts in Antle and Valdivia (2006) with the analog method discussed in Antle et al. (2017) to estimate the economic parameters of our simulation model. The exMD method is designed to incorporate a new crop such as hemp, not represented in available farm survey or census data, into a model of an existing multicrop system. ...
This paper provides an ex ante evaluation of the economic potential of the emergent industrial hemp industry in Oregon, a state with conditions favorable to hemp cultivation. The analysis exploits available data to simulate the performance of hemp for fiber and oil in existing cropping systems. The study finds that profitability and adoption of hemp into existing crop production systems in Oregon could range widely, depending on key factors including hemp prices, costs of production, investments in production technology and supply chains, and policies affecting hemp production and utilization.
... The positive influence (as indicated in Table 2) of both land ownership and farm income on the adaptation strategy of changing the timing of farm operations resonates with literature highlighting the role of financial stability and secure land tenure in facilitating farmers' ability to respond effectively to climate change. Previous studies, including those by Antle et al. (2006) and Bryan et al. (2009), have emphasized the importance of economic resources in enabling farmers to implement adaptation measures. Financial stability, reflected in farm income, provides the necessary resources to invest in machinery, tools, and technology that allow for flexible farming operations aligned with changing climate conditions (Gbetibouo, 2009). ...
Climate risks pose significant challenges to farmers' livelihoods, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where the complex interplay of factors intensifies the impact on small-scale farmers (SSFs). While there is a broad understanding of climate change's effects on agriculture, there is a need for deeper insights into the key determinants and preferences influencing SSFs' adaptation strategies in vulnerable regions to better inform agricultural policy and planning. Data were collected from 325 SSF randomly selected in Juaben Municipality, Ghana. Quantitative analysis was done using descriptive and inferential statistics, while qualitative data were analyzed through content analysis. The study identified shifting planting dates, altering farm operation timings and mulching as primary adaptation strategies. Significant associations were found between socio-economic factors and the adaptation strategies employed by SSFs, with the Relative Importance Index highlighting affordable tools, land ownership and access to fertile land as crucial for enhancing livelihoods and adaptation. The findings underscore the need for training programmes to equip extension officers with the knowledge to support SSFs in developing skills and efforts related to adaptation and viable livelihood options.
... For example, these models simplify agricultural systems, potentially leading to discrepancies with real-world observations [4] . While proficient in biophysical aspects, they often overlook crucial socioeconomic factors shaping agricultural outcomes, such as economic conditions and policy interventions [5] . Relying solely on climate-crop models may underestimate the role of adaptive strategies and mitigation measures, neglecting the resilience and adaptability of agricultural systems [6] . ...
... To estimate deforestation under incentive-based policies, studies have often assumed that forest carbon payments first cause increases in forest rent and consequently improve forest resources (Angelsen, 2010). Based on this assumption, methods such as the value maximization function of land use (Kerr et al., 2003;Kim et al., 2010;Barua et al., 2012;Antle and Valdivia, 2006), econometric models of deforestation drivers (Kindermann et al., 2006;Motel et al., 2009;Busch et al., 2012), and the difference-in-differences approach (Scullion et al., 2011;Alix-Garcia et al., 2012) have been used to determine the impact of payments for forest conservation on deforestation. REDD+ could play an increased role in climate mitigation by determining country-specific emission baselines, which is difficult using static baselines as baselines change in response to carbon payments must be considered. ...
The mechanism of reducing deforestation emissions in developing countries (REDD+) could play an increased role in climate mitigation by determining country-specific emission baselines. An impact evaluation able to assess the baselines change in response to carbon payments must be considered in order to highlight effective baselines. In this study, we proposed dynamic baselines and developed a forest-carbon-economy system-dynamic model to assess reduced deforestation emissions and payments for emission reductions. We conducted a comparative analysis from five countries, which were representatives of four forest country types. The results showed that the average dynamic baselines were lower than static baselines in Brazil, Cameroon, Guyana and Indonesia. It implied, in the context of limited climate funding, use of dynamic baselines will help REDD+ achieve more cost-efficient emissions reductions in these countries. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis of the key parameters showed that different data sources of carbon density, carbon prices and changes in agricultural product prices affect emission reductions. Thus, when a country has high flexibility in determining data sources, it may choose profitable data under alternative data sources, which can compromise the climate effectiveness and cost efficiency of the entire REDD+ mechanism.
... An example of these models which may be useful in the aquaculture sector is the Trade-off Analysis Model for Multidimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) (Antle et al., 2014;Antle & Valdivia, 2006). This model represents a whole farm production system which can be composed of an aquaculture sub-system with multiple fish species, a crop sub-system containing multiple crops, a livestock sub-system with multiple livestock species, and the farm household characteristics (e.g. ...
Focusing on economic methods, this study provides a comprehensive review of the current research in fisheries and aquaculture within the context of climate change. We find there has been remarkable progress in evaluating the biophysical impacts of climate change on fish. However, the effect those impacts have on future fish stocks, yields, and dynamics are less understood. Climate change adaptation strategies in fisheries and aquaculture lack quantitative assessment, while current vulnerability indices rely heavily on subjective weighting schemes. Economic studies involving fisheries and aquaculture have seen some recent advancements but can be improved through incorporating methods from other disciplines, notably agricultural economics. Relative to its increasingly large role in global fish supply, the aquaculture sector is found to be under-represented in the economic literature. We suggest that future research in fisheries and aquaculture should further incorporate methods from agricultural economics, focus on the economics of aquaculture, and refine interdisciplinary research methods such as bioeconomic modelling.
... Sustainability 2020, 12, 6177 2 of 12 mainly determined through payment willingness, opportunity cost, ecological benefits, protection value, and practical cost [11,12]. However, these methods commonly consider only macro factors and rarely take into account the relationship between the payment criteria and land use opportunity cost for the compensated individual, thus failing to measure the relationship between the payment criteria and the newly-added ecosystem services [13]. ...
Quantitative evaluation of the relationship between payment criteria and the amount of additional ecosystem services can improve the cost-effectiveness of payment for ecosystem services (PES) projects. This paper simulated additional water conservation (AWC) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, examined appropriate payment criteria, and matched different payment modes with local herders’ preferences in Northwest China. The results showed that if all the low-coverage grass areas were to be closed through PES projects, the actual payment criteria, 37 yuan/ha, would need to be increased eight times, which would be 302 yuan/ha. Along with that, annual AWC could reach 1.69 × 106 m3. If PES projects were implemented in all the low- and medium-coverage grass areas, payment criteria would need to be increased to 365 yuan/ha, and the annual AWC would reach 2.59 × 106 m3. There were scale economy effects in this range, because a 21% increase in the payment criteria would result in a 66% increase in the total AWC. The appropriate mode for herders above 40 years old is “cash + in-kind compensation” and “cash + capacity” for those below 40, due to the preferences varying in age.
... Economic assessment of climatic change sensitivity was done with the Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multidimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) version 6.1 in this study [75][76][77]. The economic analysis was done on a per farm basis. ...
There are numerous anticipated effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in the developing and the developed world. Pakistan is among the top ten most prone nations to CC in the world. The objective of this analysis was to quantify the economic impacts of CC on the agricultural production system and to quantify the impacts of suggested adaptation strategies at the farm level. The study was conducted in the Punjab province's rice-wheat cropping system. For this purpose, climate modeling was carried out by using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, and five global circulation models (GCMs). The crop modeling was carried out by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation models (CSMs), which were tested on the cross-sectional data of 217 farm households collected from the seven strata in the study area. The socioeconomic impacts were calculated using the Multidimensional Impact Assessment Tradeoff Analysis Model (TOA-MD). The results revealed that CC's net economic impact using both RCPs and CSMs was negative. In both CSMs, the poverty status was higher in RCP 8.5 than in RCP 4.5. The adaptation package showed positive results in poverty reduction and improvement in the livelihood conditions of the agricultural households. The adoption rate for DSSAT was about 78%, and for APSIM, it was about 68%. The adaptation benefits observed in DSSAT were higher than in APSIM. The results showed that the suggested adaptations could have a significant impact on the resilience of the atmospheric changes. Therefore, without these adaptation measures, i.e., increase in sowing density, improved cultivars, increase in nitrogen use, and fertigation, there would be negative impacts of CC that would capitalize on livelihood and food security in the study area.
... The Agriculture Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AGMIP), assessed the 20 different GCMs and adopted five models namely CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPIESM [41][42] These five adopted models were used as the basis of this study. These GCMs were chosen as they have a long history in development and evaluation, preference for higher resolution and established performance in monsoon regions ( [42]. ...
Smallholder farmers in semi-arid areas depend on both cropping and livestock as the main sources of livelihoods. Rangeland productivity varies on both spatial and temporal scales and provides the major source of feed for livestock. Rangeland productivity is expected to decline with climate change thereby reducing livestock feed availability and consequently livelihoods that depend on livestock. This study was carried out to assess the impacts of climate change on rangeland productivity and consequently livestock population dynamics using a 30-year simulation modeling approach. The climate scenarios used in the simulations are built from the localized predictions by General Circulation Models (GCMs). The primary climate variables under consideration are rainfall (+/−7% change), carbon dioxide (CO2 up to 650 ppm) and temperature (+4 °C change). This was done by applying the SAVANNA ecosystem model which simulates rangeland processes and demographic responses of herbivores on a temporal and spatial scale using a weekly internal time step and monthly spatial and temporal outputs. The results show that rainfall levels of less than 600 mm/year have the largest negative effect on herbaceous biomass production. The amount of biomass from the woody layer does not change much during the year. The carbon dioxide (CO2) effects are more influential on the tree and shrub layers (C3 plants) than the herbaceous layer (C4 grasses). The CO2 effect was more dominant than the effects of rainfall and temperature. In the baseline simulations, the shrub plant layer increased significantly over 30 years while there is a three-fold increase in the woody plant layer (trees and shrubs) where biomass increased from a 1980 production to that of 2010. The biomass of the herbaceous layer was stable over the historical period (1980 to 2010) with values fluctuating between 200 and 400 g/m2. Grass green biomass has a variable distribution where most production occurred in the fields and cleared areas while lower levels of production were found in the forested areas. The spatial distribution of shrub green biomass was less directly linked to yearly rainfall. Shrub biomass was mostly found in forested areas, and it showed a steady increase in production. Cattle, donkey, and goat populations rose slowly from 1980 but the rise was disrupted by a dry period during the late 1980s to the early 1990s causing a decline in all populations primarily due to grass unavailability. The populations of cattle goats and donkeys started to rise again from 1995 onwards due to improvements in rainfall. Cattle and donkey populations were rising faster than that of goats while sheep population was not changing much for most of the simulation period, otherwise they declined significantly during the drought of 2002. Similar changes in simulated grass biomass (g/m2) were observed in almost all climate scenarios, except for the peak and low years. The livestock population simulation showed few variations in livestock population under all scenarios. The main conclusion from the study is that CO2 effects on rangeland productivity are much more dominant than the localized effects of rainfall and temperature. This has implications of favoring the growth of the tree and shrub layers over herbaceous layer, which meant that in the long run, the species that are able to use tree and shrub layers may be kept as a livelihood source as they will have a feed source.
... ES can evaluate the comprehensive and quantitative value of an ecosystem (Costanza et al., 2017;Costanza and Kubiszewski, 2012;Droste et al., 2018). ES in agricultural ecosystems have now been extended to satisfy public and private demands (Belt and Blake, 2014;Antle and Valdivia, 2006), have been utilized in aquaculture (Mathé and Rey-Valette, 2015;Weitzman, 2019) and rice-field ecosystems (Ondiek et al., 2016). An ES study was conducted for a prawn-rice rotational system in Vietnam, and the comparison indicates that although the comprehensive value of this system was higher than the rice monoculture system (Loc et al., 2017). ...
... Economic assessment of climatic change sensitivity was done with the Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multidimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) version 6.1 in this study [75][76][77]. The economic analysis was done on a per farm basis. ...
The objective of this study was to measure the impacts of climate change sensitivity and how it is affecting economic conditions of farmers in current rice wheat cropping system. Cross-sectional data of 210 farmers from the seven different strata were collected from Punjab, Pakistan. Climate data of baseline (1980-2010) and future (2039-2040) under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for five global circulation models were collected from secondary sources. The climate scenarios were used in two crop simulation models, i.e., DSSAT and APSIM. Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multidimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) was used for the economic analysis. The crop modeling results of the study using different GCMs and RCPs show that there was negative impact of climate change on the yields of both major crops i.e., rice and wheat. The comparison of both CSMs given the insight that the percent losses were higher in APSIM as compared to DSSAT. The economic analysis endorsed the negative impacts of climate change on farming community. The major economic indicators (net returns, per capita income and poverty) of the study area expressed the declining trend in both RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) and all five GSMs. The observed household vulnerability to climate change percentage was more intense in RCP 8.5 as compared to RCP 4.5, however, among GCMs the figures shown higher vulnerability in hot dry climate conditions and lower in cool wet. The poverty of the study area increased with climate change and it was more prominent while using RCP 8.5 as compared with RCP 4.5. The highest increase in poverty was observed using APSIM crop model for hot-dry conditions. The study concluded that to ensure food security, poverty alleviation and to minimize climatic risks there is the need to update agronomic practices and develop adaptation strategies.
... The TOA-MD model is novel approach for economic, environmental and social impact assessment of agricultural systems that can be used for crops, livestock and aquaculture. (Antle and Valdivia, 2006). It depends on data from various sources like farm surveys, observed field data, simulated data and expert's judgment. ...
... When one paddy adopts production mode a, per hectare paddy each year can produce e 0 unit of ecosystem services; if the paddy adopts production mode b, e unit of ecosystem services supply can be increased per hectare. The paddy production decision-making of farmers is all based on the maximized expected benefit value v (z), of which z represents the land utilization type (a or b) (Antle and Valdivia, 2006). If, ...
Agricultural land provides not only food and fiber, but also various non-market commodities with characteristics of externalities or public goods. However, more and more chemical inputs lead to frequent environmental pollution. Thus, in order to incentivise farmers to engage in ecological agriculture to provide more ecosystem services, it’s necessary to pay farmers for their loss to change current cultivation approach. This paper studied Hani Rice Terraces System in southwest China, and calculated how much should be paid for paddy eco-compensation based on the subjective decision-making characteristics of individuals and characteristics of a paddy ecosystem. On the one hand, from the perspective of the microeconomic decision-making done by the individual farmers, we investigated the space distribution of the opportunity cost for paddy ecosystem services supply; on the other hand, from the perspective of farmers’ macroeconomic behaviors, we investigated the relationship between the compensation standard and the ecosystem services willingly provided by the farmers. For example, when we need more ecosystem services (80.77 × 104 yuan/ha/yr), the compensation standard is 3000 yuan/ha/yr; when the demand of ecosystem services is to add 219.49 × 104 yuan/ha/yr, the compensation standard should be 9000 yuan/ha/yr.
... The study used the Trade-Off Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD), for economic assessment of climate change and adaptation strategies. Previously, the model was used by researchers to check the adoption rate of technology (Antle and Valdivia 2006;Baig et al. 2014;Rehman et al. 2015). Past studies revealed that the methodological framework of the said model is more valid as ...
This study involves the climate change impact assessment of wheat producers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. An extensive farm survey of 150 farms was designed. From study area, three districts, namely, Chitral, D.I. Khan, and Peshawar, were selected through multistage sampling process. Yield simulation from Crop model DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer) was used for socio-economic impact assessment. Future climate scenarios were generated by selecting five GCMs from latest CMIP5 family with two RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, at two carbon concentrations of 499 ppm and 571 ppm, respectively. Yield simulations were analyzed for each GCM. Results of crop model revealed that wheat yield will increase in district Chitral, while in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, yields would be reduced due to climate change. For socio-economic impact assessment, TOA-MD (Trade-Off Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment) version 6 was used. Climate change impacts on poverty, net farm returns, and per capita income were calculated for different scenarios. The analysis was carried out on per-farm basis. The economic model results revealed that climate change has negative impact on wheat producers in D.I. Khan and Peshawar while making wheat producers better off in Chitral. The number of losers ranged from 54 to 66.21% and 50 to 61.99% in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, respectively. Losers are the farmers who would be economically worse off under perturbed climate. With current climate, the observed poverty rate would be 34 to 49 in D.I. Khan while 21.26 to 34.03 in Peshawar. The study recommended need for adaptation strategies to overcome the vulnerabilities of climate change.
... However, in contrast to typical mathe- matical programming models which use average representative farms to model new systems and interventions, the use of a heterogenous farm population in this study adds value by offering solutions that can help with the targeting of interventions, so that they are applied to farms that are likely to profit from their uptake. The Tradeoff Analysis for Multidimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) model (Antle, 2011;Antle and Valdivia, 2006) is another ex-ante assessment tool, which explicitly considers farm population heterogeneity in ex-ante evalua- tions of farm practice changes. It is a statistical method that uses simple statistical parameters derived from farm population data, to predict rates of adoption and associated distributions of economic impacts. ...
There are large yield gaps in the mixed smallholder farming systems of Africa, with limited opportunities to sustainably increase productivity and adapt to climate change. In this study, the ex-ante potential of residue retention and fertilization measures to meet this challenge is assessed using a positive mathematical programming (PMP) model. This micro-economic model captures decision making at the farm level for a sample population in Northern Burkina Faso for the 2010 to 2045 simulation period. In contrast to previous studies of mixed farms in this area, we model each individual farm in the sample population, instead of one or a small number of representative farms. We are therefore able identify groups of farms for which each measure is profitable, applied either individually or as a combined package. This approach also enables simulation of the economic impacts from indiscriminate applications of the measures or "smart" applications which are restricted to the farms that profit from the measures. Our findings are aligned with other studies showing that residue retention causes trade-offs between crop and livestock production, while fertilization can synergistically raise returns to both production activities. The annual profit losses from the "middle of the road" RCP6 trajectory of climate change assumed in this study were estimated to reach 15% by 2045. The smart package of measures increased aggregate profit the most, although not by nearly enough to claw back the losses from climate change. The fertilizer measures were the next most profitable, with indiscriminately applied residue retention being the only measure to reduce aggregate profit relative to this climate change baseline. Importantly, the measures that are the most profitable at the aggregate level are not necessarily those that would be the most widely adopted. For example, residue retention is profitable for a larger share of the sample population than fertilization. The advantage of the population scale analysis used in this study is that it prevents measures such as residue retention, which can benefit a significant share of farms, from being disregarded by practitioners because they appear to be unprofitable at the aggregate level or when viewed through the lens of an average representative farm. Finally, amidst the growing emphasis of studies on the benefits of packages compared to individual measures, the findings from this study are more equivocal about this choice, suggesting that extension programs should have the flexibility to apply measures individually or as a package.
... This suggests that a minimumdata approach or 'back-of-the-envelope' type of analysis that mainly uses secondary data in modelling could support an informed policy decision-making process as in this case. Antle and Valdivia (2006) have demonstrated the minimum-data approach in the provision of sufficiently accurate analysis of ecosystem provision scenarios to support such a process. ...
The Pest Free Place of Production (PFPP) project was piloted in 2013 in the Yarra Valley region of Victoria. An accreditation system has underpinned the PFPP concept as a strategy for enabling market access to Queensland fruit fly (QFF) sensitive markets. The overall aim of this evaluation was to assess the economic merits of the PFPP
accreditation system which is an alternative to the existing chemical-based approach to complying with the phytosanitary standards of QFF-sensitive interstate markets.
The primary methodology adopted in this economic evaluation was benefit-cost analysis. This was supplemented by a survey of project participants and non-participants to collect project-level data relating to trade benefits, as well as gain some insight into the motivating factors affecting the speed and level of project uptake by industry.
The evaluation found that the PFPP project could provide large ongoing net gains to participating businesses, including commercial-scale producers and marketers of QFF-host fruits in the Yarra Valley region.
There is economic evidence to suggest that the project is an economically useful model for enhancing access of QFF-host fruits from the Yarra Valley to QFF-sensitive interstate markets. This means the PFPP accreditation system under the pest free place of production concept is a worthy alternative to chemical disinfestation particularly when relatively broader adoption occurs.
Efforts to increase both the speed and level of adoption of the PFPP accreditation system would raise the project’s chances of achieving a net gain.
... Some experiences of PSA use a combination of uses of the soil which may receive payments, including agriculture and forestry, such as the case of the program of New York City (LANDELLMILLS and PORRAS, 2002), and the schema in Jesús de Otoro, Honduras (KOSOY et al., 2006). Already in other cases, only the conservation agriculture is contemplated in the diagrams (ANTLE and VALDIVIA, 2006). The review on the topic of PSA in river basins, FAO (2004) States specific studies are required to include agricultural land in PSA schemes. ...
To provide goods and services to human’s ecosystems need water like fish, timber, food, grains, among others. Similarly, are responsible for important services for the preservation of the quality and quantity of water available, such as the supply and maintenance of water flows and smoothing of natural disasters related to water, such as floods and droughts. This work was carried out to explain why the existence of this type of payment services in the pursuit of environmental protection exercised in several countries including environmental Brazil, based on the location of cases of payment for environmental services. Some countries have already practiced the payment for environmental services and the majority of services is related to water. Environmental service providers whose main goal that the business is profitable and remains. Payment for environmental service exists as an incentive to conserve the environment so profitable to the owner of rural land or forests ale smallholders and farmers.
... Earlier approaches in climate change impact assessments employed the agronomic model, future agricultural resource model (FARM), agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model, integrated assessment models (IAM's) and Ricardian (or cross-section) models (Darwin, 1999;Maddison et al., 2007;Deressa, et al., 2009). While the first two approaches mainly rely on time series data, which are often not available in developing countries, the IAM's and Ricardian models have been widely applied in cross-sectional analyses (Antle and Valdivia, 2006;Hassan and Nhemachena, 2008;etc.). However, recent studies have criticised the Ricardian approach because of its failure to account for potential endogeneity of adaptation. ...
Climate change continues to pose a serious threat to rain-fed agriculture, especially food crop production in Ghana. In this study, we examined the factors that affect farmers’ decision to adopt climate sensitive farming practices to adjust to climate change and how adaptation impacts on farm productivity and household welfare. The study employed data from a survey conducted during the 2015/2016 cropping season in twenty-five communities across three regions of Ghana. We employed an endogenous switching regression approach to account for selectivity bias caused by observable and unobservable factors and to capture the differential welfare impacts of adaptation on adapters and non-adapters. The results showed that long-term mean temperature, extension contacts, farm and household endowments are the main determinants of adaptation. The results also showed that adaptation had positive and significant effects on farm incomes and household dietary diversity scores. We recommend the facilitation of access to inputs such as drought tolerant and early maturing crop varieties and fertilizer to ease adaptation challenges of farmers; in addition to the strengthening of extension service and incorporation of climate change sensitization into extension delivery.
... This method provides a preliminary basis on which to assess adoption potential. Antle and Valdivia (2006) argue that this approach can be implemented at low cost in a timely manner to provide a good firstorder estimate of adoption potential that can be used to support informed decision making by researchers and policy decision makers.The related empirical literature is Akroush (2012) and Claessens, Stoorvogel and Antle(2008). ...
... We used the Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multi-dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) economic model, which is a multi-dimensional impact assessment program that utilizes statistics of farm characteristics (means, standard deviations, coefficients of variation) to simulate the impacts of environmental changes on economic conditions (Antle, 2011;Antle and Valdivia, 2006). In this study we use it to assess climate change impacts on socio-economic aspects of farming systems with the intent of providing support for informed policymaking. ...
... The importance of ecological modelling in research and policy making has been recognized in recent years' research ( Figure 4), which has caused an immense increase in and a wide variety of modelling approaches (EVANS, 2012). Modelling ecosystem services can be used to provide information of possible events to ecosystems and human society in advance with minimal data (ANTLE & VALDIVIA, 2006;MOKANY et al., 2016). It can be used also to study the optimal use, conservation and management of ecosystems (MOKANY et al., 2016). ...
In this paper possible applications of ecological modelling on the municipal level and beyond are investigated. The use of models and scenarios can help in the valuation of ecosystem services, that is, the benefits humans derive from nature for their well-being. Based on those scenarios, public policies can take better informed decisions on how to improve the provision of those services e.g. through conservation areas. To this end the concepts of ecosystem services, modelling and scenarios are explored to contextualize them in the urban setting of the Atlantic Rainforest. It is argued that the lack of applied ecological modelling in the Atlantic Forest biome poses a threat to the provision of ecosystem services for the populations in Brazil's most populous urban areas that are situated in this biome
... We would then need to see the joint distribution of the farms and the potential ES. A combination of the earlier approaches of Shively and Coxhead (2004), and Antle and Valdivia (2006) working on the distribution of farms in the territory with works by Quintero et al. (2009) relying more on landscape models would be interesting to pursue. ...
Agriculture production is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change in Vietnam. Therefore, assessing levels of climate change vulnerabilities on agriculture production is extremely necessary. Vulnerability assessment using an index method has been broadly applied throughout the world. However, this method is a preliminary step and is complicated for application in Vietnam. This chapter presents the result of constructing an easy framework and a tool for assessing and calculating a climate change vulnerability index with unequal weight. The result of the assessment identifies which community/province is most vulnerable to climate change. This in-turn supports decision makers in proposing mitigation measures in the future.
... We would then need to investigate the joint distribution of the farms and potential ES. A combination of the earlier approaches of Shively and Coxhead (2004), and Antle and Valdivia (2006), who worked on the distribution of farms in a given territory with works by Quintero et al. (2009), who worked on landscape models, would be interesting to pursue. Finally, our model considered that unlimited funds would be available for the program, and that PFF and TFF would be mutually exclusive, i.e. ...
The forested areas of northern Vietnam, mostly located in mountainous areas, have important watershed regulating functions. However, current land-use changes pose a threat to the continuing provision of environmental services. This chapter investigates two alternative payment for environmental services (PES) programs tailored to reestablish natural or productive forests in the uplands of northern Vietnam: “Payments for Forest” (PFF) and “Terraces for Forest” (TFF). Both programs involve setting aside sloping land for reforestation but they differ in the type and amount of compensation offered. PFF offers annual payments per area of retired land. TFF offers to convert a certain amount of the current sloping land into a terraced area, combined with annual payments per area of retired land. The main objective of the chapter is to compare the two types of programs in terms of potential participation (what type of farmers will likely participate?), and what impact it would have on their revenues. Using mathematical programming, we developed a set of farm models corresponding to typical farms of a mountainous district of northern Vietnam. We simulated the level of participation of different types of farms for the two types of PES programs. For each specific PES, we analyzed participation, measured by the area of land converted into forest land and its impacts on land use and household revenues. Results show that, given the assumptions of the models, increasing access to irrigated terraces as a way to compensate for land conversion to forest increases the participation of the poorest farmers. Therefore, our research suggests that PES schemes, when fine-tuned to a Southeast Asian context, may not only be used as a way to restore ecosystem services but also as a way to alleviate poverty.
... The Trade Off Analysis-Minimum Data (TOA-MD) model is a multi-dimensional impact assessment tool which utilizes statistics of farms (means, standard deviations, coefficients of variation) to simulate the adoption and impacts of a change in environmental conditions on economic conditions (Antle & Valdivia, 2006). It seeks to assess the climate change impact on socio-economic aspects of farming systems with a minimal requirement of data. ...
... Trade-off analysis model for multi-dimensional impact assessment (TOA-MD) TOA-MD 5.0 is a computerized model publicly available at http://tradeoffs.oregonstate.edu. It was developed by Antle and Valdivia (2006) and further developed and applied in several case studies (Claessens et al. 2008;Antle 2011;Tran et al. 2013). The approach addresses the economic, environmental, and social impacts of agricultural technologies, and also assesses adoption rates. ...
Sustainable agricultural development is fundamental to food security and poverty alleviation, notably in developing countries. Many development initiatives focus on the enhancement of smallholder production and productivity because the majority of poor people in developing countries live in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of livelihood. The consequences of these development initiatives need to be assessed before implementation to reduce the risk of possible negative impacts. This can be done by applying ex ante sustainability impact assessment. Here, we compare methods of assessment of sustainability impact for farming interventions. We review methodological approaches and verify whether the requirements of sustainability impact assessment theory are fulfilled. Our major points are the following: (1) main methodological approaches do not fulfill the requirements defined in the theoretical sustainability impact assessment discourse. (2) The active involvement of different stakeholder groups throughout the assessment process and the possibility of learning and exchange are fundamental to sustainability impact assessment. (3) The institutional dimension of sustainability is not yet sufficiently integrated. We therefore suggest institutional criteria and indicators to be also considered in the sustainability impact assessment framework. We argue that sustainability impact assessment, respecting the interactive involvement of all stakeholder groups throughout the whole process, is a compulsory element in project planning for a sustainable agricultural development in developing countries.
... There is, however, heterogeneity in herd sizes as well as in other livestock production activities. Our approach therefore follows the minimum data approach as described by Antle and Valdivia (2006) using the TOA-MD to simulate economic and environmental impacts. Methane emissions for TOA-MD simulations were calculated using Ruminant model's input data on emissions, the lactation period, and the total quantity of milk produced. ...
... There is, however, heterogeneity in herd sizes as well as in other livestock production activities. Our approach therefore follows the minimum data approach as described by Antle and Valdivia (2006) using the TOA-MD to simulate economic and environmental impacts. Methane emissions for TOA-MD simulations were calculated using Ruminant model's input data on emissions, the lactation period, and the total quantity of milk produced. ...
Crop-livestock production systems play an important role in the livelihoods of many rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) but are vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. Understanding which farming options will give the highest return on investment in light of climate change is critical information for decision-making. While there is continued investment in testing adaptation options using on-farm experiments, simulation models remain important tools for 'ex-ante' assessments of the impacts of proposed climate-smart agricultural technologies (CSA). This study used the Ruminant model and the Trade-offs Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) to assess how improved livestock management options affect the three pillars of CSA: increased productivity, improved food security, and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Our sample was stratified into: 1) households with local cow breeds (n = 28); 2) households with improved dairy cow breeds (n = 70); and 3) households without dairy cows (n = 66). Results showed that the predicted adoption rates for improved livestock feeding among households with improved dairy cows (stratum 2) were likely to be higher compared to households with only local cows (stratum 1). Both households with local cows and those with improved cows had increased income and food security. However, overall poverty reduction was only modest for households with local cows. Expected methane emissions intensity declined with adoption of improved livestock feeding strategies both in stratum 1 and stratum 2, and greater impacts were observed when households in stratum 2 received an additional improved cow breed. Providing a cow to households that were not keeping cows showed substantial economic gains. Additional research is, however, needed to understand why those farms currently do not have cows, which may determine if the predicted adoption rates are feasible.
The emerging hemp industry is an example of an important class of agricultural products where the market extent is limited, in hemp's case by laws and regulations, causing technology adoption to interact through prices with market‐level equilibrium. In this paper, we show that the equilibrium adoption rate and producer welfare impact of new technology, such as improved hemp genetics and management, are determined by the interaction between market prices and the spatial distribution of returns of both current and new technologies in the farm population. Price changes affect adoption and welfare through shifts in both the location (mean) and dispersion (variance and higher moments) of the spatial distribution of gains to the new technology. We show that an output price change may either increase or decrease the adoption rate of a new technology and in turn impact the elasticity of the market supply function. Additionally, we derive market‐equilibrium measures of welfare change for both adopters and non‐adopters and show how these welfare measures are affected by the spatial distribution of returns to a new technology. Our finding suggests that the interplay between new technologies and price changes is likely to have empirically important effects on regional supply and farm welfare.
This study analyzes the production impacts of climate change on smallholder agricultural households across Ethiopia. Hypothesizing that climate change affects agricultural livelihoods mainly through productive and distributive effects, this article examines an integrated farm [crop, livestock, mixed] production impacts overtime. Methodically, the comprehensive Ethiopian socioeconomic survey (ESS] panel data, and nation-wide observatory 60-years climate data- precipitation and temperature [1960-2019] were merged to form a joint panel database; then analyzed using Ricardian panel model with random effects regression. Objectively, factor productivity, the rate of convergence, the historical, real, and seasonal climate impacts were investigated against net-agricultural return overtime. The applied panel model augments both the temporal, spatial, and individual effects and yields more efficient and consistent estimates than the cross-sectional and time series models. The results revealed that CC poses net-negative, increasing and significant impacts on factor elasticity, percapita farm output, and net-farm revenue [NFR] due to diminishing marginal returns; the progressive temporal impacts; regressive duration impacts; divergence effects on the growth of net-farm return; and mixed regional, farm, and HH impacts. Therefore, introducing institutionalized sustainable livelihoods framework [green institutions, finance, education, training, research, inputs, subsidy, insurance, market] in agricultural production system would enhance sustainable production and improved welfare among smallholder households even under changing climate.
Ecological compensation has become very common worldwide due to the imbalance in the development of modern society, economy, and the environment and the increased pressure on ecosystem carrying capacity. Nonetheless, the various approaches for quantifying ecological compensation standards differ significantly. Thus, the process for determining a reasonable ecological compensation threshold is important to understand. To ensure the maximization of ecosystem service supply and economic benefit incentives for farmers, this paper constructs a discriminant model of an ecological compensation threshold based on the minimum data approach and the most appropriate land use scenario to define the ecological compensation threshold of the Sloping Land Conversion Program in the upper Yangtze River basin. The results show that with an increase in the compensation price, the proportion of farmers participating in returning farmland to forests and grassland increases, and water conservation increases. However, the discriminant curve first increases to a certain threshold point and then decreases, after which the ecoefficiency rate obtained from the compensation decreases. The ecological compensation thresholds for Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hubei, Qinghai, Gansu, Tibet and Shaanxi provinces are 17.74 yuan/m³, 13.79 yuan/m³, 19.1 yuan/m³, 17.79 yuan/m³, 15.28 yuan/m³, 45.14 yuan/m³, 17.23 yuan/m³, 25.2 yuan/m³ and 22.36 yuan/m³, respectively. This research examines ecological compensation standards in different watersheds throughout the world and discusses the relationship between ecological compensation and water conservation. The discriminant model of the ecological compensation threshold can provide a new reference for the implementation and management of ecological compensation policies.
The ISTA conferences are the primary events to review and predict the direction of the global tilapia farming industry. Presentations on genetics, health, nutrition and feeds, national reports, processing innovations and development of commercial co-products from experts bring the latest information to the participants.
The mechanism of reducing deforestation emissions in developing countries (REDD+) could play an increased role in climate mitigation by determining country-specific emission baselines. An impact evaluation able to assess the baselines change in response to carbon payments must be considered in order to highlight effective baselines. In this study, we proposed dynamic baselines and developed a forest-carbon-economy system-dynamic model to assess reduced deforestation emissions and payments for emission reductions. We conducted a comparative analysis from five countries, which were representatives of four forest country types. The results showed that the average dynamic baselines were lower than static baselines in Brazil, Cameroon, Guyana and Indonesia. It implied, in the context of limited climate funding, use of dynamic baselines will help REDD+ achieve more cost-efficient emissions reductions in these countries. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis of the key parameters showed that different data sources of carbon density, carbon prices and changes in agricultural product prices affect emission reductions. Thus, when a country has high flexibility in determining data sources, it may choose profitable data under alternative data sources, which can compromise the climate effectiveness and cost efficiency of the entire REDD+ mechanism.
Protecting ecosystems while simultaneously promoting economic growth are both goals of sustainable development. The mining sector has long lacked dynamic environmental regulation based on eco-efficiency, which limits the efforts of extractive industries to achieve sustainability. We combine cumulative availability curve theory and environmental economic incentive theory to construct a mechanism for controlling environmental losses in mines based on ecosystem costs. We used a dataset of 1115 non-metallic mines to verify the feasibility of the mine environmental loss control mechanism. We demonstrate the feasibility of using ecosystem loss costs to control environmental losses in mines by constructing environmental loss supply curves, production cumulative availability curves and reserve cumulative availability curves for extractive industries based on ecosystem costs in mines. Overall, this mechanism provides incentives for sustainable mining and gives government policy makers more flexibility in policy formulation.
With the rapid development of human society, the self-regulation ability of ecosystem services has lagged far behind the degree of human destruction. As an effective environmental incentive policy, ecological compensation plays an important role in improving the ecology of all regions in the world. This study discussed the willingness of farmers to participate in ecological compensation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on the results of a questionnaire, analyzed the influencing factors, established differential ecological compensation standards, and explained the coupling relationship between ecological compensation and ecosystem services. First, the contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to analyze the ratio of farmers' willingness to accept and willingness to pay and to identify the factors affecting farmers' willingness to accept ecological compensation. The minimum-data approach was used to establish different types of ecological compensation standards in various administrative regions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Finally, the efficient guidelines for ecological compensation standards were analyzed. The results showed that the expected value ratio of farmers' willingness to accept and willingness to pay in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was 9.26 times, the actual compensation standard was generally lower than the theoretical compensation standard, and the degree of participation in seven administrative regions was less than 10%. When the compensation standard reached a certain threshold, the supply of ecosystem services would exceed the needs of regional development, leading to a “marginal effect”, so compensation standard should be no longer increased. The results of this study provide scientific advice for formulating compensation standards, perfecting the ecological compensation mechanism, and improving the efficiency of ecological compensation in the rapidly developing regions represented by the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
The implementation of the coal-to-gas (C2G) project is the key to achieving the transition to clean energy and improving air quality in rural areas in the north of China. Based on the survey data of 374 households in the town of Mishan, which is in the city of Jincheng in Shanxi Province, the C2G heating compensation standard was calculated using the minimum data method, and the key factors affecting farmers' choice of clean energy were analyzed using logistic regression models. The results were as follows. (i) The C2G project almost doubled the heating expenditure of farmers. (ii) When the compensation standard increased, the ratio of newly added C2G heating area and newly reduced pollutant emissions increased non-linearly. To achieve an environmental goal of reducing particulate matter by 40%, the government will need to compensate each household by 3.56 CNY/m² per month, which is 1.35 times the current compensation standard. When the monthly compensation is 9 CNY/m², the comprehensive best economic and environmental benefits can be achieved. (iii) The per capita annual income of households and the permanent population of households are the most significant variables affecting farmers' choice of clean energy. Introducing environmental perception variables, such as adaptive efficacy perception and self-efficacy perception, can help to identify the willingness of farmers to choose clean energy.
This article investigates the technology acceptance factors in the context of information communication technology enabled agricultural extension services. Behavioral intention has always been a consequence of the technology acceptance model. The purpose of this study was to examine if the consequence of adoption be an economic benefit to the customer. It examines how these factors influence perceived economic well-being of such users. A stratified sampling procedure was adopted to obtain data from 325 valid responses from rural Indians using a structured survey instrument. A two step method was applied to analyse the data. First, the measurement model was calibrated for the reliability and validity of constructs. Then, the strength and direction of the hypothesized relationships were investigated by the structural model using structural equation modeling. Users of mobile application were checked for their perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, subjective norm and attitude for their perceived economic well-being. These four factors, when regressed upon the perceived economic well-being using structural equation modeling predict that all but attitude is significant. This article improvises the extant technology acceptance model by replacing behavioral intention with a perceived economic well-being as a consequence. A consumer who perceives economic benefits is more likely to adopt an innovative product. Marketers can advertise the economic benefits so that the target customers adopt such technologies. By this research, the authors have identified a different outcome for perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, attitude and subjective norm. A new relationship between the exogenous variables perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, subjective norm and attitude and the endogenous variable perceived economic well-being is established by this study. Behavioral intention can be replaced by perceived economic well-being as the outcome in the technology acceptance model.
Mankind is in peril and there are many reasons for this; however, climate change precedes all other reasons. Problems of poor farming communities are augmented due to the menace of climate change. This study endeavors to determine the effect on farming communities of both climate change and a situation without climate change. To carry out the study, three different districts were selected (Rawalpindi, Chakwal, and Layyah). Impact of the climate vagaries on per capita income, farm returns, and poverty of the respondents was taken into consideration. To achieve pathways analysis, regional representative agricultural pathways were used. The decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) crop growth model was employed for wheat-related simulations. The tradeoff analysis model for multidimensional impact assessment (TOA-MD) model was used for economic analysis. The results lend credence to the aforementioned nuisance of climate change, as the findings which came through were negatively affecting farm returns, per capita income, and poverty of the farmers. The negative impact applies to both current and future production systems. Farmers are up against the wall because of climate change and they will have to adopt new innovations to raise their productivity.
Crop rotation systems are an important part of agricultural production for managing pests, diseases, and soil fertility. Recent interest in sustainable agriculture focuses on low input-use practices which require knowledge of the underlying dynamics of production and rotation systems. Policies to limit chemical application depending on proximity to waterways and flood management require field-level data and analysis. Additionally, many supply estimates of crop production omit the dynamic effects of crop rotations. We estimate a dynamic programming model of crop rotation which incorporates yield and cost intertemporal effects in addition to field-specific factors including salinity and soil quality. Using an Optimal Matching algorithm from the Bioinformatics literature, we determine empirically observed rotations using a geo-referenced panel dataset of 14,000 fields over 13 years. We estimate the production parameters which satisfy the Euler equations of the field-level rotation problem and solve an empirically observed four-crop rotation.
Climate change impacts assessment of current agricultural production system
of Punjab was studied at (Five Districts were taken i.e. Shekhupura, Nankana
Sahab, Hafizabad, Gujranwala and Sialkot, Punjab, Pakistan) during the year
2014. An extensive farm survey of 155 farmers was designed. From this study
rice- wheat cropping zone comprising Sheikhupura, Nankana Sahab,
Hafizaabad, Gujranwala, districts was selected. Yield simulations with two
crop models, i.e. Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer
(DSSAT) and Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), were used in
a socio-economic impact assessment. Five selected General Circulation
Models (GCM) were used for crop modelling, and yield simulations were
analysed for both crop models and each GCM. The Trade off Analysis Model
for a Multidimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) version 6 was used for
the analysis. Climate change and adaptation impacts on poverty, net farm
returns and per capita income were calculated for different scenarios. The
results revealed that the number of losers in all forms of study area ranged
from 73 to 85 percent. Losers are categorized as the farmers who would be
economically worse off under a changed climate. Without climate change,
observed poverty rate would be 24.4 percent and in case of climate change, the
predicted poverty rates would range from 28 to 32 percent. Results urged the
need for adaptation strategies to reduce the exposed vulnerabilities of farming
systems for viable future.
This study presents results of an analysis of 1060 academic articles published in the Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics and the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics from 1957 to 2015. A number of trends in research topics over time identified by the study include a decline in research on agricultural topics; growth in publications related to natural resources, the environment, trade, food and international development. Other trends include an increase in the average number of co-authors on each paper; a gradual increase in authorship be females; changes in the shares of top contributing institutions; increases in collaboration between institutions; and a steady increase in the number of authors from outside Australia or New Zealand.
This paper provides a method for estimating the marginal cost of soil carbon (C) derived from setting aside highly erodible cropland in the United States. Increases in soil carbon are estimated using a modified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change soil organic carbon inventory method and National Resources Inventory data. Marginal costs of soil carbon sequestration activities are based on the opportunity cost of removing highly erodible land from crop production using land rental rates adjusted to account for the productivity of cropland and Conservation Reserve Program rental rates. Total soil carbon sequestration from setting aside highly erodible land is over 10 Tg C yr-1 (11.0 Mtn C yr-1) on the 21.9 Mha (54.1 Mac) where corn, cotton, sorghum, soybean, wheat, or fallow were grown in 1997. The marginal cost of stored carbon based on these estimates range from 4,492 Mg-1 C (4,075 tn-1 C) with a US weighted average of 261 tn-1 C). Changes in US crop production levels from removing land from crop production are also estimated.
Land degradation is a global constraint to economic development in countries such as Peru that have a complex topography where soil erosion is an important problem. Governmental and private institutions are promoting adoption of soil conservation practices such as construction of slow formation terraces, yet they lack accurate estimates of the private and social benefits and costs of these investments. The objective of this thesis is to provide a better understanding of the economics of terrace investments by (1) developing a method to conduct a sensitivity analysis of an integrated assessment model designed for the agricultural production systems in Peru, and (2) conducting an economic analysis of the effects of terraces on productivity and their economic implications. The Tradeoff Analysis software was used to implement an integrated assessment model and to conduct a sensitivity analysis of terrace investments in a watershed in northern Peru. Key parameters in the analysis are: erosion and terrace effects on productivity; interest rates; terrace maintenance and investment costs; and time to achieve terrace maturity. The analysis shows that the proportion of fields on which terraces are a profitable investment can be highly sensitive to key parameters, thus demonstrating the importance of sensitivity analysis to understand and interpret policy implications derived from integrated assessment models. The analysis also verifies the hypothesis that physical and economic heterogeneity are important determinants of terrace profitability. Terraces were found to be most profitable on more steeply sloped fields, implying that farmers have incentives to invest in terraces where both private and social returns are the highest.
Agricultural policy has a well-documented impact on farmers' production decisions, which may in turn affect the environment. There is a public perception that existing agricultural policies are linked to agricultural pollution, as exemplified by the conclusions of the recent National Research Council report, Alternative Agriculture (1989). This paper develops a conceptual framework that can be used to analyze the interactions between agricultural and environmental policies and pollution. It integrates physical and economic models at a disaggregate level necessary to capture the heterogeneity of the physical environment and the economic behavior of farmers. Combining the different policy instruments with the microeconomic heterogeneity, we find that existing agricultural and environmental policies can have either positive or negative effects of nonpoint source pollution; to infer an aggregate effect requires data that do not currently exist. Our framework provides a basis for empirical investigations of these effects, given adequate data. -from Authors
The economic benefits of the adoption of conservation tillage depend on site-specific factors including soil characteristics, local climatic conditions, cropping patterns, and other attributes of the overall farming operation. While it is possible to draw some general inferences about components of economic returns and costs, a comprehensive assessment of the net private benefits from greater use of conservation tillage is not feasible.
Many important hypotheses in applied economics depend upon the magnitude of estimated elasticities or flexibilities. However,
their statistical properties are unknown for many popular models, making standard statistical inference impossible. This problem
is addressed in the present paper which analyzes and evaluates alternative methods of constructing confidence intervals for
elasticities and flexibilities. The methods studied include three bootstrap-based approaches, an approximation based on a
Taylor's series expansion, and approaches proposed by Fieller and Scheffé. Results show that all method's except Scheffé's
worked reasonably well, but the simpler Fieller and Taylor's series methods modestly outperformed the various bootstrapped-generated
intervals.
Land use changes to sequester carbon also provide "co-benefits," some of which (for example, water quality) have attracted at least as much attention as carbon storage. The non-separability of these co-benefits presents a challenge for policy design. If carbon markets are employed, then social efficiency will depend on how we take into account co-benefits, that is, externalities, in such markets. If carbon sequestration is incorporated into conservation programs, then the weight given to carbon sequestration relative to its co-benefits will partly shape these programs. Using the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) as an example, we show that CRP has been sequestering carbon, which was not an intended objective of the program. We also demonstrate that more carbon would have been sequestered had CRP targeted this objective, although the "co-benefits" would have increased or decreased.
The growth in conservation programs has created a need for modeling frameworks capable of measuring microlevel behavioral responses and macrolevel landscape changes. This paper presents an empirical model that predicts farmers' production practices and the resulting levels of agricultural runoffs at more than 42,000 agricultural sites in the upper-Mississippi river basin under alternative conservation policies. Results suggest that payments for conservation tillage and crop rotations increase the use of these conservation practices. However, the acreage response is inelastic and the programs are not likely to be cost effective on their own for addressing hypoxia problem in the Gulf of Mexico. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.
The economic benefits of the adoption of conservation tillage depend on site-specific factors including soil characteristics, local climatic conditions, cropping patterns, and other attributes of the overall farming operation. While it is possible to draw some general inferences about components of economic returns and costs, a comprehensive assessment of the net private benefits from greater use of conservation tillage is not feasible. overall farming operation. While it is possible to draw some general inferences about components of economic returns and costs, a comprehensive assessment of the net private benefits from greater use of conservation tillage is not feasible.
If the United States chooses to implement a greenhouse gas reduction program, it would be necessary to decide whether to include carbon sequestration policies—such as those that promote forestation and discourage deforestation—as part of the domestic portfolio of compliance activities. We investigate the cost of forest-based carbon sequestration by analyzing econometrically micro-data on revealed landowner preferences, modeling six major private land uses in a comprehensive analysis of the contiguous United States. The econometric estimates are used to simulate landowner responses to sequestration policies. We treat key commodity prices as endogenous and predict carbon storage changes with a carbon sink model. Our estimated sequestration costs exceed those from previous engineering cost analyses and sectoral optimization models. Our estimated sequestration supply function is similar to the carbon abatement supply function from energy-based analyses, suggesting that forest-based carbon sequestration merits consideration in a cost-effective portfolio of domestic US climate change strategies.
In this paper we develop methods to investigate the efficiency of alternative contracts for Carbon (C) sequestration in cropland soils, taking into account the spatial heterogeneity of agricultural production systems and the costs of implementing more efficient contracts. We describe contracts being proposed for implementation in the United States and other countries that would pay farmers for adoption of specified practices (per-hectare contracts). We also describe more efficient contracts that would pay farmers per tonne of soil C sequestered, and we show how to estimate the costs of implementing these more efficient contracts. In a case study of a major agricultural region in the United States, we confirm that the relative inefficiency of per-hectare contracts varies spatially and increases with the degree of spatial heterogeneity. The results also show that per-hectare contracts are as much as five times more costly than per-tonne contracts—a degree of inefficiency similar to that found in assessments of command-and-control industrial emissions regulations. Measurement costs to implement the per-tonne contracts are found to be positively related to spatial heterogeneity but are estimated to be at least an order of magnitude smaller than the efficiency losses of the per-hectare contract for reasonable error levels. This finding implies that contracting parties could afford to bear a significant cost to implement per-tonne contracts and achieve a lower total cost than would be possible with the less efficient per-hectare contracts.
Agricultural tillage practices are important human-induced activities that can alter carbon emissions from agricultural soils and have the potential to contribute significantly to reductions in greenhouse gas emission (Lal et al., 1998). This research investigates the expected costs of sequestering carbon in agricultural soils under different subsidy and market-based policies. Using detailed National Resources Inventory data, we estimate the probability that farmers adopt conservation tillage practices based on a variety of exogenous characteristics and profit from conventional practices. These estimates are used with physical models of carbon sequestration to estimate the subsidy costs of achieving increased carbon sequestration with alternative subsidy schemes. Copyright 2001 by Oxford University Press.
Many important hypotheses in applied economics depend upon the magnitude of estimated elasticities or flexibilities. However, their statistical properties are unknown for many popular models, making standard statistical inference impossible. This problem is addressed in the present paper which analyzes and evaluates alternative methods of constructing confidence intervals for elasticities and flexibilities. The methods studied include three bootstrap- based approaches, an approximation based on a Taylor's series expansion, and approaches proposed by Fieller and Scheffé. Results show that all method's except Scheffé's worked
Agricultural tillage practices are important human-induced activities that can alter carbon emissions from agricultural soils and have the potential to significantly contribute to reductions in greenhouse gas emission. This paper investigates the expected costs of sequestering carbon in agricultural soils under different subsidy and market-based policies. Using the detailed National Resources Inventory data, the authors estimate the probability that farmers adopt conservation tillage practices based on a variety of exogenous characteristics and profit from conventional practices. Using these estimates, along with physical models of carbon sequestration, the authors estimate the subsidy costs of achieving increased carbon sequestration with alternative subsidy schemes.
This article develops the conceptual and empirical basis for a class of empirical economic production models that can be linked to site-specific biophysical models for use in integrated assessment research. Site-specific data are used to estimate econometric production models, and these data and models are then incorporated into a simulation model that represents the decision-making process of the farmer as a sequence of discrete and continuous land-use and input-use decisions. An econometric-process model of the dryland grain production system of the Northern Plains demonstrates the capabilities of this type of model to simulate decision making both within and outside the range of observed data. Copyright 2001 by American Agricultural Economics Association
Land-use change and carbon sinks: econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function, Faculty Research Working Paper Series RP-2005-01 The efficiency of sequestering carbon in agricultural soils
- R N Lubowski
- A J Plantinga
- R N Stavins
Lubowski, R.N., Plantinga, A.J. and Stavins, R.N. (2005). Land-use change and carbon sinks: econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function, Faculty Research Working Paper Series RP-2005-01, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Regulatory Policy Program, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA. Pautsch, G.R., Kurkalova, L.A., Babcock, B.A. and Kling, C.L. (2001). The efficiency of sequestering carbon in agricultural soils, Contemporary Economic Policy 19, 123–134.