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The Effects of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws on Motor Vehicle Fatalities in the United States
Abstract
Objective. This article assesses the effectiveness of mandated seat belt usage. The theory of offsetting behavior asserts that when drivers feel safer, they compensate by driving less cautiously. As a consequence, any lifesaving effects from mandated safety devices such as seat belts could be significantly diminished or entirely offset. Methods. This article uses regression analysis and two years (1988 and 1997) of state-level data to test for the presence of offsetting behavior by estimating models explaining total and nonoccupant motor vehicle deaths. In addition to accounting for several factors generally acknowledged as being determinants of highway deaths, the models control for the impact of primary and secondary seat belt laws. Results. The findings suggest the existence of offsetting behavior by drivers of motor vehicles. Conclusions. We need to recognize the probability of such compensatory behavior and direct our efforts at ways of ameliorating the adverse effects.
... Graham & Lee (4) find evidence that the increase in fatalities following helmet law repeal may be transitory and speculate that it may be due to gradual risk compensation. and Zlatoper (8) and Evans and Graham (9) find evidence of offsetting behavior following mandatory seatbelt laws. Peterson et al. (10) find evidence of offsetting behavior among drivers of airbag-equipped vehicles, and estimate the drivers of these vehicles to be at fault in 85% of the crashes they are involved in. ...
... where the natural log of motorcycle fatality and crash counts in state i at time t are a function of a vector of time-varying state characteristics, SC i,t , including average annual temperature, precipitation, log of vmt, log of rural vmt, log of driving-age population, log of alcohol consumption per capita, log of maximum rural interstate speed limit, log of white infant mortality rate, and interaction terms for log of alcohol consumption by Vermont and Nevada state indicator variables (see Table I for definitions). 8 Each model also contains a vector of indicator variables for motorcycle safety legislation, ML i,t , that include the following: laws requiring motorcyclists to pass skills tests, laws requiring motorcycle rider education classes prior to licensing, laws establishing statefunded rider education programs irrespective of licensing requirements, and laws requiring daytime 8 The choice of log or linear explanatory variables was based on goodness-of-fit measures in specifications that systematically varied functional form for similar variable groups (e.g., weather, alcohol consumption, and congestion). Noland (24) notes that models of crash data can be sensitive to choice of negative binomial or OLS specifications. ...
... where the natural log of motorcycle fatality and crash counts in state i at time t are a function of a vector of time-varying state characteristics, SC i,t , including average annual temperature, precipitation, log of vmt, log of rural vmt, log of driving-age population, log of alcohol consumption per capita, log of maximum rural interstate speed limit, log of white infant mortality rate, and interaction terms for log of alcohol consumption by Vermont and Nevada state indicator variables (see Table I for definitions). 8 Each model also contains a vector of indicator variables for motorcycle safety legislation, ML i,t , that include the following: laws requiring motorcyclists to pass skills tests, laws requiring motorcycle rider education classes prior to licensing, laws establishing statefunded rider education programs irrespective of licensing requirements, and laws requiring daytime 8 The choice of log or linear explanatory variables was based on goodness-of-fit measures in specifications that systematically varied functional form for similar variable groups (e.g., weather, alcohol consumption, and congestion). Noland (24) notes that models of crash data can be sensitive to choice of negative binomial or OLS specifications. ...
This study uses state-level panel data from a 33-year period to test the hypotheses of offsetting and enhancing behavior with regards to motorcycle helmet legislation. Results presented in this article find no evidence of offsetting behavior and are consistent with the presence of enhancing behavior. State motorcycle helmet laws are estimated to reduce motorcycle crashes by 18.4% to 31.9%. In the absence of any behavioral adaptations among motorcyclists mandatory helmet laws are not expected to have any significant impact on motorcycle crash rates. The estimated motorcycle crash reductions do not appear to be driven by omitted variable bias or nonclassical measurement error in reported crashes. Overall, the results strongly suggest that mandatory helmet laws yield significant changes in motorcycle mobility in the form of reduced risk taking and/or decreased utilization.
© 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
... Suggestive of the hypothesis, an increase in belt use has been linked to an increased number of crashes and nonoccupant fatalities (Garbacz, 1990;Risa, 1994). Similarly, others have found the presence of a mandatory seatbelt law to be associated with more motor vehicle crashes (Asch et al., 1991;McCarthy, 1999) and nonoccupant fatalities (Adams, 1982;Calkins and Zlatoper, 2001;Chirinko and Harper, 1993;Evans and Graham, 1991). ...
... Additional weak evidence of risk compensation is provided by studies that report a lower than expected decline in total fatalities associated with a seatbelt law (Sen, 2001) or by a variable reflecting a seatbelt law or safety regulation that is a statistically insignificant determinant of motor vehicle fatalities (Keeler, 1994;Maguire, Faulkner, and Mathers, 1996). Calkins and Zlatoper (2001) report increased total fatalities in the presence of belt laws. ...
... Young, inexperienced drivers tend to be risky drivers so we expect the percent of young adults to be positively correlated with traffic fatality rates (Houston, Richardson, and Neeley, 1995). The prevalence of drinking and driving in a state also contributes to higher motor vehicle fatalities rates (Calkins and Zlatoper, 2001;Chirinko and Harper, 1993) and is measured as the percent of traffic fatalities that are alcohol related (as determined by NHTSA). Conversely, the unemployment rate has been found to be negatively associated with fatalities (Houston, Richardson, and Neeley, 1995). ...
Objective. The risk compensation hypothesis suggests that drivers enjoying greater safety will drive more recklessly and thereby impose greater risks on nonoccupants. We provide a test of the risk compensation hypothesis in the context of state seatbelt laws and belt use rates.
Methods. Fixed-effects models with policy and demographic variables are estimated using annual state data from 1985 to 2002 to test the effect of seatbelt laws and seatbelt use rates on logged fatality rates for occupants, pedestrians, motorcyclists, and all nonoccupants in separate models.
Results. Contrary to the risk compensation hypothesis, the results indicate that both occupants and nonoccupants enjoy greater safety due to state mandatory use laws and increased safety belt use rates.
Conclusion. Overall, seatbelt laws and the higher belt use these laws induce do not increase nonoccupant risk exposure. If anything, these laws and the accompanying increase in belt use result in safer driving behavior.
... Some research studies have shown that population density generally affects highway mortality rates but specifically correlates more with motorcycle rider fatalities. Usually, when the population density increases, it leads into frequent stops on the highways and streets as compared to lower population density areas where drivers can drive with fewer interruptions (Keeler 1994;Calkins and Zlatoper 2001;Cohen and Einav 2003;Farmer and Williams 2005). A study by Branas and Knudson (2001) reports a significant positive relationship between state-level population densities and motorcycle rider death rates. ...
... Higher levels of education have been considered as a factor in promoting personal healthy behaviors (Grossman, 1975). Generally, healthy behaviors have been associated with compliance with existing laws such as wearing motorcycle helmets, wearing seat belts, obeying traffic rules, etc. (Dissanayake and Shaheed, 2012) Several studies show that education is negatively associated with motor vehicle fatality rates (e.g., Calkins and Zlatoper, 2001;Braver, 2003;Muelleman et al., 1992). According to Paulozzi (2005), income is usually postulated to be negatively correlated with traffic fatalities because wealthy people are generally regarded as more aware and place a higher value on safety, and possess the means to enhance it. ...
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, road crashes are one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in the United States. The Healthy People 2020 has indicated that accidents are a major public health issue. Most motor-vehicle related events resulting in injury, disability, or death are predictable and preventable. Injuries are the leading cause of death for Americans aged 1 to 44 years and a leading cause of disability for all ages, regardless of sex, race/ethnicity, or socioeconomic status. Although motorcycles represent approximately 3% of all registered vehicles in the United States, motorcycling accounts for more than 13% of highway traffic fatalities. While fatalities normally represent a small percent of other motor vehicle occupants, fatalities can be as high as 40% for the motorcyclists when involved in accidents (or traffic crashes as typically referred to by transportation safety professionals). Motorcyclists are more vulnerable in crashes due to their lack of protection like enclosed vehicles do to motor vehicle occupants, so they are more likely to be severely injured or killed. Therefore, there is a motivation among stakeholders to decrease the injury severity of motorcyclists. A clear understanding of the factors influencing injury severity levels due to motorcycle crashes and the related evidence prevention strategies is of paramount importance. When examining a topic of motorcycle injury severity, it is important to keep into consideration of different issues that include the definition and concept of injury severity, trends in motorcycle crashes, motorcycle-related policies and laws, knowledge of risk and protective factors. The main purpose of this chapter is to discuss the risk factors and protective factors related to injury severity of motorcycle crashes in the US. Important aspects related to motorcycle crashes’ injury severity such as methodological challenges related to conceptual clarity and measurement are discussed. In addition, implications for education, research, practice and policy including laws and enforcement are highlighted so that the overall motorcycle safety situation could be improved.
... This work suggests that remedies designed to reduce the impacts of high risk behavior can have the unintended consequence of reinforcing it by reducing the actual or perceived risk of engaging in the action. Early theorizing on this phenomenon (e.g., the "Peltzman Effect") originated alongside analyses suggesting that, even after controlling for a host of explanatory variables, the existence of a state seatbelt law is correlated with an increase in motor-vehicle fatalities (Calkins & Zlatoper, 2001;Peltzman, 1975). Authors interpreted this finding as evidence that drivers feel more secure when wearing seatbelts and compensate by driving more recklessly, leading to a greater number of overall traffic accidents and fatalities. ...
... Authors interpreted this finding as evidence that drivers feel more secure when wearing seatbelts and compensate by driving more recklessly, leading to a greater number of overall traffic accidents and fatalities. As such, this phenomenon is often referred to as an "offsetting effect" or "compensatory behavior" (Calkins & Zlatoper, 2001;Cohen & Einav, 2003). ...
Many have speculated that increased attention to climate change adaptation will reduce support for mitigation. The Risk Compensation Hypothesis suggests that remedies to reduce the impacts of risky behaviors can unintentionally increase those behaviors. The Risk Salience Hypothesis suggests that information about adaptation may increase the salience of impacts, and therefore increase mitigation support. Experiment 1 presented participants with a news article about an irrigation technology described as a way to improve efficiency (Pure Control), reduce emissions (Mitigation Control), or reduce drought vulnerability (Adaptation). Political moderates in the adaptation condition rated climate change as a higher political priority and were more supportive of a policy to subsidize the technology than those in both controls. Results were not replicated in Experiment 2. These results partially support the Risk Salience Hypothesis. There was no evidence to justify the concern that discussing adaptation will reduce support for mitigation or concern about climate change.
... Some studies showed that the severity of injuries did indeed decline with the use of seat belts but the frequency of accidents increased [26], suggesting that regulatory measures, such as mandating seat belt use, have a limited effect in reducing fatalities [27,28]. Another study found that seat belt laws led to an increase in the number of deaths of both those in the car and those not in the car at the time of the accident, such as pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists [29]. The above studies and others attribute these findings to an offset of the desired results because of a compensating behavior. ...
Over the past decade, the popularity of installing advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in cars has increased markedly. However, the effectiveness of ADAS is subject to debate, primarily because these systems intervene in drivers’ perceptions and actions and could lead to adaptive behavior. Using complete national data for the installation of three leading safety systems and speeding tickets issued over the course of an entire year, allowed us to pinpoint the impact of these safety systems at a national level. Employing zero-inflated negative binomial regression models, we found that the installation of the three safety systems was associated with higher number of speeding tickets. These findings are in line with the literature that indicates adaptive behavior in the context of risk. However, when we accounted for the proneness to commit other traffic violations, the effect of the safety systems on the prevalence of speeding tickets was evident only for those prone to violations. Further research should be conducted to identify which drivers will be more likely to be affected and under what circumstances and safety system types.
... Similarly, Houston et al. (1995), Sen (2001, and Young and Likens (2000) found that traffic fatalities in general benefit from the enactment of seat belt laws. Conversely, evidence of offsetting behavior has been found by Garbacz (1990), and Sen and Mizzen (2007), who show a positive relationship between seat belt use and non-occupant death rates, as well as by Calkins and Zlatoper (2001) and Risa (1994) who show evidence of a positive relationship between occupant and non-occupant fatalities and seat belt use. Some investigations, such as Garbacz (1992) and Derrig et al. (2002), even find no kind of relationship at all between seat belt use and traffic fatalities. ...
Dans le cadre des efforts déployés pour se défendre contre les risques de cybersécurité, il est nécessaire de mieux comprendre l'élément humain actif dans la cyberguerre, en particulier du côté de l'attaque. L’analyse des biais dans la prise de décision des attaquants pourrait permettre aux cyber-défenseurs de concevoir des leurres et des pots de miel plus adaptés pour attirer et retarder les attaquants. Ces pièges permettent également d'observer les modes de prises de décisions des attaquants et les biais cognitifs en jeu (Johnson et col., 2021 ; Krawczyk et col., 2013 ; Goh, Hou, & Cho, 2022).
... The term behavioral adaptation indicates the set of behaviors that occur as an unintended outcome to a change in the road network (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 1990). Researchers have postulated that behavioral adaptation contributed to driver behavioral changes after the past deployment of various measures intended to improve road safety, including seatbelts (Calkins and Zlatoper, 2001) and airbags (Peterson and Hoffer, 1994). Saad et al. (2004) introduced two phases of behavioral adaptation in response to a newly introduced technology such as driving automation systems: a learning phase followed by an integration phase. ...
Driving automation systems (e.g., SAE Level 2) ultimately aim to enhance the comfort and safety of drivers. At present, these systems are able to control some portions of the driving task (e.g., braking, steering) for extended time periods, giving drivers the opportunity to disengage from the responsibilities associated with driving. In this study, data derived from two naturalistic driving studies involving automation-equipped vehicles were analyzed to evaluate driver behaviors with respect to driving automation system use, specifically distraction-related factors (i.e., secondary task engagement, eye-glance behavior, and drowsiness). The results indicate that when drivers had prior experience using driving automation systems, they were almost two times as likely to participate in distracted driving behaviors when the systems were active than during manual driving. Drivers with less experience and familiarity with driving automation systems were less likely to drive distracted when the systems were active; however, these drivers tended to be somewhat drowsy when driving with systems activated. The results provide important insights into different operational phases of driving automation system use (i.e., learning/unfamiliar vs experienced users), whereby experience results in overtrust and overreliance on the advanced technologies, which subsequently may negate some of the safety benefits of these systems. Thus, while the safety benefits of driving automation systems are evident, it is imperative to better understand the impact these advanced technologies may have on driver behavior and performance in order to evaluate and address any unintended consequences associated with system use.
... For instance, analyzing traffic safety data spanning the latter half of the 20 th century, several analyses consistently demonstrate the significance of state regulatory environments in reducing motor vehicle fatalities. Importantly, state actions can change drivers' behaviors by mandating the use of seat belts, enacting graduated driver's license regulations, increasing the minimum legal drinking age, and instituting lower maximum speed limits (Calkins and Zlatoper 2001;Houston, Richardson Jr, and Neeley 1995;1996;Houston 1999;Williams 2009). These findings are substantiated by multiple reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention documenting the significant state-and regional-level variation in motor vehicle behavior and fatalities across the United States. ...
Background:
Recent studies of US adult mortality demonstrate a growing disadvantage among southern states. Few studies have examined long-term trends and geographic patterns in US early life (ages 1 to 24) mortality, ages at which key risk factors and causes of death are quite different than among adults.
Objective:
This article examines trends and variations in early life mortality rates across US states and census divisions. We assess whether those variations have changed over a 50-year time period and which causes of death contribute to contemporary geographic disparities.
Methods:
We calculate all-cause and cause-specific death rates using death certificate data from the Multiple Cause of Death files, combining public-use files from 1965-2004 and restricted data with state geographic identifiers from 2005-2014. State population (denominator) data come from US decennial censuses or intercensal estimates.
Results:
Results demonstrate a persistent mortality disadvantage for young people (ages 1 to 24) living in southern states over the last 50 years, particularly those located in the East South Central and West South Central divisions. Motor vehicle accidents and homicide by firearm account for most of the contemporary southern disadvantage in US early life mortality.
Contribution:
Our results illustrate that US children and youth living in the southern United States have long suffered from higher levels of mortality than children and youth living in other parts of the country. Our findings also suggest the contemporary southern disadvantage in US early life mortality could potentially be reduced with state-level policies designed to prevent deaths involving motor vehicles and firearms.
... In contrast to the previous framework, research in risk compensation research analyzing consumer aggregate behavior suggests that in spite of the fact that risk compensation exists in various types of remedies (e.g., Calkins and Zlatoper (2001)) the remedies may cause unintended consequences that harm consumer welfare in the society. ...
... See Garbacz (1990a, 1990b, 1991;Risa (1994);Calkins and Zlatoper (2001). ...
Prior research on policy-induced moral hazard effects in the auto insurance market has focused on the impact of compulsory insurance, no-fault liability, and tort liability laws on traffic fatalities. In contrast, this paper examines the moral hazard effect of a previously overlooked policy variable: Minimum auto insurance coverage. We hypothesize that state-mandated auto insurance minimums may 'over-insure' some drivers, lowering their incentives to drive carefully. Using a longitudinal panel of American states from 1982 to 2006, we find that policyinduced increases in auto insurance minimums are associated with higher traffic fatality rates, ceteris paribus.
... See Garbacz (1990a, 1990b, 1991;Risa (1994);Calkins and Zlatoper (2001). ...
... Put simply, why put effort into living a healthy lifestyle when a weight-management remedy can take care of the problem? The net effect is a form of moral hazard or risk compensation: consumers trade away the potential gains of remedy usage by engaging in riskier behavior (e.g., Calkins and Zlatoper 2001;Richens, Imrie, and Copas 2000). Indeed, Bolton et al. (2008) show that exposure to weight-management remedy marketing can reduce self-reported healthy intentions. ...
This research explores the impact of weight management remedy marketing on healthy lifestyle behaviors. Three studies demonstrate that exposure to drug (but not supplement) marketing for weight management encourages unhealthy consumer behavior, due to consumers' reliance on erroneous beliefs about health remedies. The authors explore the possible mitigating role of two dimensions of healthy literacy: nutrition knowledge and remedy knowledge. Whether measured or manipulated, remedy knowledge is shown to be more effective than nutrition knowledge at lessening the effect of weight management drug marketing on unhealthy behavior. The theoretical and substantive implications of this research for consumer welfare are discussed.
... That is, why avoid risk if a remedy exists to take care of the problem? The net effect is a form of moral hazard or risk compensation (e.g., Calkins and Zlatoper 2001;Richens, Imrie, and Copas 2000;Rodgers 1996;Rogers and Greenfield 1999), in which consumers trade away some of the safety gains of the remedy by continuing to engage in risky behavior and even increase their exposure to risk. For example, rather than minimizing use of credit cards, debt consolidation loan marketing might lead consumers to increase spending limits on their cards or even acquire additional cards. ...
The marketing of debt consolidation loans is intended to offer a financial remedy to consumers faced with mounting debt and credit problems and unable to meet their monthly payments. The authors argue that debt consolidation loan marketing overemphasizes the short-term benefits (e.g., lower monthly payments) and downplays the considerable downside of these loans (e.g., longer repayment and more total interest paid). Two experiments demonstrate that a financial literacy intervention combining information about loans and lenders can help consumers understand and respond to debt consolidation loan marketing (whereas a basic financial numeracy intervention does not). Implications for consumers, marketers, public policy makers, and researchers who work in the area of financial literacy are discussed.
... For example, an increase in seat belt usage may lead to more careless driving, which may increase traffic accidents and fatalities. Several studies corroborate this argument (Garbacz, 1990aGarbacz, , 1990bGarbacz, , 1991Garbacz, , 1992 Risa, 1994; Calkins and Zlatoper, 2001; and Sen, 2001). Unlike the mountainous state dummy, the coastal state dummy has a consistently negative and significant coefficient across the second and third regressions. ...
Many important determinants of traffic fatalities have been identified using the widely popular fixed-effects (FE) estimator for panel data. However, the FE estimator precludes an analysis of time-invariant or rarely changing variables, thereby obscuring their relative impact on traffic fatalities. This study estimates the effect of time-invariant and rarely changing variables (climate, geography, laws, etc.) on the U.S. state traffic fatality rate using alternative econometric methods in addition to the FE estimator. We find that alcohol consumption, air temperature, and precipitation have the largest effect on traffic fatalities. Our findings suggest that policy makers and the insurance industry practitioners may want to re-evaluate the role of climate in road safety.
... But, this interpretation does not account for the notion that drivers potentially engage in risk compensation or offsetting behavior (e.g., Calkins and Zlatoper, 2001;Houston and Richardson, 2007;Peltzman, 1975), which is a tendency to be more likely to take risks when drivers feel they have done some action (e.g., slow down) that seemingly affords a degree of protection. Nor does it account for the idea that slowing down in some situations may actually be dangerous in and of itself (e.g., producing traffic congestion) or the view that slowing down per se does not guarantee sufficient attention is being paid to driving itself. ...
This study sought to investigate the relationship between cell phone conversation type and dangerous driving behaviors. It was hypothesized that more emotional phone conversations engaged in while driving would produce greater frequencies of dangerous driving behaviors in a simulated environment than more mundane conversation or no phone conversation at all. Participants were semi-randomly assigned to one of three conditions: (1) no call, (2) mundane call, and, (3) emotional call. While driving in a simulated environment, participants in the experimental groups received a phone call from a research confederate who either engaged them in innocuous conversation (mundane call) or arguing the opposite position of a deeply held belief of the participant (emotional call). Participants in the no call and mundane call groups differed significantly only on percent time spent speeding and center line crossings, though the mundane call group consistently engaged in more of all dangerous driving behaviors than did the no call participants. Participants in the emotional call group engaged in significantly more dangerous driving behaviors than participants in both the no call and mundane call groups, with the exception of traffic light infractions, where there were no significant group differences. Though there is need for replication, the authors concluded that whereas talking on a cell phone while driving is risky to begin with, having emotionally intense conversations is considerably more dangerous.
... It is well-known that public policies often have unexpected secondary effects, and there is ample evidence that such unintended consequences have diminished or even completely eliminated the intended effects of a variety of policies. Automobile safety measures can decrease the safety of passengers and non-occupants by increasing risky driving behavior (Calkins and Zloptroper 2001; Chirinko and Harper 1993; Keeler 1994). Building roads to decrease traffic congestion can do just the opposite (Downs 1992; Fulton et al. 2000). ...
I address the functioning of the U.S. governing system by analyzing distributional outcomes from 1947 to 2000. The key question is whether public policy influences distributional outcomes. The macropolitics model and power resource theory suggest that left policies should equalize the distribution of income. I utilize single equation error correction models to assess the impact of policy on income inequality through two mechanisms—market conditioning and redistribution. Since nearly every government action influences markets in some way, I examine policy in the aggregate rather than focusing only on policies explicitly designed to redistribute income. The analysis indicates that policy influences inequality through both mechanisms, with left policy producing more equality. The results are consistent with power resource theory and strongly support the macropolitics model. Furthermore, I find that market conditioning is as important as, and works in tandem with, explicit redistribution.
... Robert Jervis (1997aJervis ( , 1997b (Asch et al. 1991;Calkins and Zloptroper 2001;Chirinko and Harper 1993;Garbacz 1990Garbacz , 1992aGarbacz , 1992bLave and Weber 1971;Merrell, Poitras, and Sutter 1999;Maguire, Faulkner, and Mathers 1996;Keeler 1994;Leege and Park 1994;Garber and Graham 1990;Peltzman 1975). Similarly, road projects designed to decrease traffic congestion can be ineffective because new road construction often leads to more miles traveled by drivers (Cervero 2003;Downs 1962Downs , 1992Fulton et al. 2000;Goodwin 1996;Hansen and Huang 1997;Hartgen and Curley 1999;Hartgen and Kim 1998). ...
(Under the direction of James Stimson) This dissertation seeks to explain changes in income inequality since 1947 in the United States. The emphasis is on how government influences the distribution of income. The theoretical foundation of this work is a combination of the power resources theory of the welfare state and the macro politics model of the U.S. governing system. By bringing these two theories together, one of which has its roots in comparative political theory and the other of which developed in the American context, I am able to provide a more comprehensive understanding of how political choices influence distributional outcomes in the United States. Using time series data from 1947-2000 the dissertation argues that government uses at least two major mechanisms to influence distributional outcomes – explicit redistribution and the manipulation of economic opportunity. The quantitative analysis supports the conclusion that explicit redistribution, which is the most commonly considered government influence on income inequality, is only a part of the picture. In fact, governmental manipulation of economic opportunity appears to be at least as important. Most importantly, this analysis shows that distributional outcomes are responsive to ideological changes in public policy.
... The majority of these tests have found evidence of offsetting behavior. But they have been conducted using aggregate data at either the national (Peltzman, 1975;Crandall et al., 1986;Chirinko and Harper, Jr., 1993;Yun, 2002), state (Calkins and Zlatoper, 2001;Cohen and Einav, 2003), county (Keeler, 1994), or city (Dee, 1998;McCarthy, 1999) level. A few researchers have used less aggregated data derived from state police accident reports (Traynor, 1993;Peterson, Hoffer, and Millner, 1995;Harless and Hoffer, 2003). 2 In our view, a test of the offset hypothesis calls for an analysis of two empirical questions that require the use of disaggregate data: (1) What types of consumers are likely to switch to products with new safety devices? ...
The offset hypothesis predicts consumers adapt to innovations that improve safety by becoming less vigilant about safety. Previous tests have used aggregate data that may confound the effect of a safety policy with those consumers who are most affected by it. We test the hypothesis using disaggregate data to analyze the effects of airbags and antilock brakes on automobile safety. We find that safety-conscious drivers are more likely than other drivers to acquire airbags and antilock brakes but these safety devices do not have a significant effect on collisions or injuries, suggesting drivers trade off enhanced safety for speedier trips. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006
News media portrayals of climate change have strongly influenced personal and global efforts to mitigate it through news production, individual media consumption, and personal engagement. This chapter explores the media framing of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the effects of media routines, factors that drive news coverage, the influences of claims-makers, scientists, and other information sources, the role of scientific literacy in interpreting climate change stories, and specific messages that mobilize action or paralysis. It also examines how journalists often explain complex climate science and legitimize sources, how audiences process competing messages about scientific uncertainty, how climate stories compete with other issues for public attention, how large-scale economic and political factors shape news production, and how the media can engage public audiences in climate change issues.
Sadly, motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) take the lives of all too many children and adolescents. The crash described above is illustrative: a teenage driver with multiple teenage passengers not wearing safety belts driving a not very safe vehicle at night. Rollover crashes tend to result in serious injuries and modern passenger vehicles are built to prevent rolling over, but the higher center of gravity of many sport utility vehicles makes them susceptible to rolling in certain types of crashes. Of course, being thrown from a vehicle is the most dangerous result of a crash, and safety belts are effective at keeping passengers in the vehicle and free from contact with cabin objects only when they are worn. Many fatalities such as these could be prevented through the combination of improved technology, strict policies, enhanced enforcement, and effective education.
The United States has a long and romantic history with vehicles and roads (Vanderbilt 2009), despite their ongoing and substantial contribution to national injury and death tolls. Because the country is geographically large and relatively wealthy, the United States has developed a greater reliance on motor vehicle transportation than any other nation, with only Australia and Canada similarly dependent on motor vehicles. Consequently, the United States leads the world in annual miles driven per driver and has one of the highest rates of injury and death due to MVCs, with more than 33,000 fatalities in 2009 (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration [NHTSA] 2010), approximately 35% of deaths for all causes.
Over the past few years, motorcycle fatalities have increased at an alarming rate in the United States. Motorcycle safety issues in Kansas are no different from the national scenario. Accordingly, this study examines motorcycle crashes in Kansas in order to identify and evaluate critical crash-related factors and subsequent impacts on motorcycle crash injury outcomes. State-level motorcycle rider fatality rates were investigated while considering various factors including helmet laws, using generalized least-squares regression modeling. A detailed characteristic analysis was carried out for motorcycle crashes, using Kansas crash data. Comparisons were made between several aspects of motorcycle crashes and other vehicle crashes. Logistic regression analyses were performed on Kansas motorcycle crash data to identify factors affecting fatal motorcycle crashes. In addition, a survey was administered to motorcyclists in order to gather information on rider behaviors and helmet usage patterns, as well as their perceptions regarding helmet laws in Kansas, potential problems associated with the law, crash-related factors, and the level of difficulty in executing various motorcycle maneuvers. Ordered probit modeling was used to identify factors contributing to the increased severity of injuries sustained by motorcycle riders involved in crashes. Results from state-based modeling showed statistically significant relations between motorcycle fatality rates in a given state and crash-related factors such as weather-related conditions, helmet laws, per capita income, highway mileage of rural roads, population density, education, demographic distributions, and motorcycle registrations in the state. States with mandatory helmet laws had 5.6% fewer motorcycle fatalities per 10,000 motorcycle registrations and 7.85% fewer motorcycle fatalities for every 100,000 in a given population. Characteristic analysis of motorcycle crashes in Kansas revealed that motorcycle maneuvers such as overtaking, motorcyclists being older than 40 years, not using motorcycle helmets, daytime riding, crashes occurring on roadside shoulders, and influence of alcohol among the riders during crashes increased the risk of crash fatalities. Survey results showed that 71% of motorcyclist respondents perceived drivers of other vehicles as the single biggest threat to their own safety. Moreover, 64% opposed legislation that would require motorcycle riders and passengers in Kansas to wear helmets. The ordered probit model results indicate that overturned and fixed-object motorcycle crashes, not wearing a helmet, being younger in age, speeding, good weather, as well as being under the influence of alcohol significantly contributed to increased severity of motorcyclist crash-related injuries in Kansas.
In 2004, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
set up Panel on Inspection and Maintenance of Vehicles. The panel
investigated on the negative impacts of the extention of validity period
of vehicle inspection certificate and drew a conc lude that the
extention would cause severe harmful effects. However, the estimation of
vehicle failure rate by the panel had many problems. In this paper, we
propose a hazard model that can resolve the problems in the estimation
by the panel. We estimate the hazard model using the same data with that
used by th e panel. Based on the estimation results, we point out the
possibility that the estimates of negativ e impacts by the panel was
overestimation.
We empirically investigate the deterrent and offsetting effects of the introduction of a point-record driving license (PDRL) in Italy. We find that the PDRL resulted in a sharp reduction of seat belt offenses, and in a noticeable decrease of road accidents. However, the reduction in occupant fatalities and injuries was associated with an increase in non-occupant ones, suggesting a remarkable "Peltzman effect". We then discuss whether a given enforcement design, by inducing drivers to make the best use of safety resources already available to them, may generate more external costs than would otherwise occur. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Policymakers around the globe have opted for high levels of regulation of the market for vehicle safety and declared many vehicle safety systems as mandatory for new cars. In this paper we argue that the delivered justifications for these policies are at least questionable. We add a completely new argument to the discussion and show in a simple theoretical model that vehicle safety systems might cause positive externalities. Based on a large dataset of traffic accidents in Germany we show that the these externalities in fact occur. Based on our estimation results we show that for anti-lock-brakes (ABS) and electronic stability programmes (ESP) the average expected externality exceeds the price of these systems. Thus, the obligation to equip any new car with both ABS and ESP is adequate from an allocative point of view although the official justification for the introduction of these regulations are flawed.
News media portrayals of climate change have strongly influenced personal and global efforts to mitigate it through news production, individual media consumption, and personal engagement. This chapter explores the media framing of mitigation strategies, including the effects of media routines, factors that drive news coverage, the influences of claims-makers, scientists, and other information sources, the role of scientific literacy in interpreting climate change stories, and specific messages that mobilize action or paralysis. It also examines how journalists often explain complex climate science and legitimize sources, how audiences process competing messages about scientific uncertainty, how climate stories compete with other issues for public attention, how large-scale economic and political factors shape news production, and how the media can engage public audiences in climate change issues.
It has been shown that road safety laws, such as motorcycle helmet and safety belt laws, have a significant effect in reducing road fatalities. Although an expanding body of literature has documented the effects of these laws on road safety, it remains unclear which factors influence the likelihood that these laws are enacted. This study attempts to identify the factors that influence the decision to enact safety belt and motorcycle helmet laws. Using panel data from 31 countries between 1963 and 2002, our results reveal that increased democracy, education level, per capita income, political stability, and more equitable income distribution within a country are associated with the enactment of road safety laws.
Despite the success of antismoking campaigns that aim to prevent young teens from smoking, this qualitative study provides strong evidence that different initiatives are needed for college students, particularly those who already smoke. When asked for responses to current antismoking messages, nonsmokers generally championed the cause; however, smokers often responded with anger, defiance, denial, and other negative responses. Consumers who respond in this manner are not well served by existing strategies, and money used for such campaigns could be better spent. New strategies are offered in hopes that antismoking campaigns can communicate more effectively with one high-risk group—college student smokers.
Based upon monthly California data, this exploratory analysis uses vector error correction methods and associated statistical
tests to identify the long-run relationship and the short-run dynamics between highway exposure and crashes. The analysis
finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between exposure and crashes, and for fatal, serious injury, and materials
crashes, could not reject the hypothesis that crash exposure and frequency move proportionately. The analysis indicates that
vector error correction models may be an important tool for improving our understanding of highway crashes and the near and
longer term impacts of alternative safety policies.
KeywordsTraffic crashes-Highway safety-Cointegration-Error correction
JEL ClassificationR40-R41-C22
Our research investigates the marketing of preventive and curative "remedies" (products and services that offer ways of mitigating risk by decreasing either its likelihood or severity). Examples include debt consolidation loans and smoking cessation aids. Like risk-avoidance messages, advertisements for remedies aim to reduce risk-by advocating the use of the branded product or service promoted by the marketer. In a series of experiments, we demonstrate that remedy messages undermine risk perceptions and increase risky behavioral intentions as consumer problem status rises. Ironically, remedies undermine risk avoidance among those most at risk-a boomerang effect with negative consequences for consumer welfare. (c) 2006 by JOURNAL OF CONSUMER RESEARCH, Inc..
Using cross-sectional time series data for the 50 states and Washington, DC, covering the period 1975-2004, we estimate fixed effects regression models that examine the effects of universal and partial helmet laws on three different motorcyclist fatality rates, while controlling for other state policies and characteristics. Depending on the particular measure that is employed, states with universal helmet laws have motorcyclist fatality rates that are on average 22-33% lower in comparison to the experience with no helmet law. Additionally, partial coverage helmet laws are associated with reductions in motorcyclist fatality rates of 7-10%, on average.
This study contributes to the literature by using provincial data in Canada between 1980 and 1996 to analyze the effect of seat belt use on traffic fatalities. Empirical estimates from first stage instrumental-variables regressions suggest that the enactment of mandatory seat belt laws is significantly associated with an increase in average seat belt use, while corresponding estimates from second stage regressions imply that a 1 percent increase in average seat belt use is correlated with a 0.170.21 percent drop in vehicle-occupant fatalities. These results suggest that roughly 17 percent of the observed decline in vehicle-occupant fatalities is attr ibutable to the enactment of mandatory seat belt legislation and the corresponding increase in seat belt use. Keywords:
Objective. In 1929, Iowa adopted the Bergman Secondary Road Act, which transferred control of the state's rural roads from the townships to the counties. This study examines the interesting and potentially important unintended consequences of the law.
Method. We gathered the minutes from 2,275 Iowa township meetings in 20 townships from 1917 to 1950 to investigate the effect of the Bergman Act.
Results. Multiple regression analysis shows that this apparently innocuous Act turned out to have dramatic and unintended consequences on Iowa's township governments. Without responsibility for the roads, township government activity plunged dramatically—the annual number of meetings and the length of those meetings fell by half from 1929 to 1930. The effect of the law on township activity remains substantial even after controlling for competing explanations, such as the onset of the Depression.
Conclusions. The Bergman Act unintentionally caused a sharp drop in township activity and it may have initiated the gradual marginalization of Iowa township governments that continues today. It is even possible that it had a depressing effect on voter turnout in rural Iowa.
DEATHS FROM ROAD ACCIDENTS IN THE UNITED STATES
An Econometric Analysis
By Rajindar K. Koshal
Abstract:
The main purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between road accidents and the quality of highways. A log-linear model using 1970 data for 48 is estimated. The results suggest a number of interesting findings. First, an increase in quality of highways would reduce highways accidents. Second, an increase in speed increases highways accidents. Third, an increase in temperature results in more accidents. Fourth, our statistical results suggest that, ceteris paribus, an increase in the driving age from 16 to 18 years would be accompanied by a reduction of about 11.1 per cent in accident rates per vehicle mile.
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Since the mid-1970s numerous states have raised their minimum legal drinking age in an effort to reduce alcohol-related traffic accidents. This study examines determinants of a variety of traffic fatality rates at the state level for 1978, with particular attention to drinking age and drinking experience. The legal drinking age has no perceptible influence on fatalities, but inexperience in drinking is an apparent risk factor independent of age. The findings suggest that the effectiveness of higher drinking ages as a safety policy tool probably has been overstated.
We examined the effectiveness of state automobile safety inspections and present new evidence from a panel of the 50 states for the years 1981–1993. Our approach incorporated several innovations over previous studies of safety inspections; most significantly, we estimated a fixed-effects model that incorporated state-specific shifts in casualty rates. We found no evidence that inspections significantly reduce fatality or injury rates. Our study also provides evidence on the effects of speed limits, seat belts, and Peltzman’s offsetting behavior hypothesis.
This study provides a detailed examination of the determinants of motor vehicle fatalities and offers a new assessment of the effects of automobile safety regulation. An empirical analysis is difficult because drivers are unlikely to remain passive in the face of changes in their safety environment. This offsetting behavior hypothesis is cast in a broad framework that brings together elements from the economics and cognition literatures. This approach allows us to highlight key maintained assumptions in previous analyses and to consider how econometric evidence can inform discussions about highway safety policy. The econometric estimates reveal that, while imprecisely estimated, offsetting behavior is quantitatively important and attenuates the effects of safety regulation on total motor vehicle fatalities. Cognitive elements, the relative costs of repairs, and the functional form of the estimating equation are shown to play prominent roles in the analysis of safety regulation. Our estimates imply that current highway policy initiatives-mandating restraint systems and relaxing restrictions on the maximum speed limit-are likely to have only a modest net effect on reducing motor vehicle fatalities.
Cross-sectional economic models of traffic fatalities are estimated to determine the effectiveness of state statutes that require motor vehicle occupants to use seat belts. The estimates provide some support for the theory of offsetting consumer behavior. In the case of primary enforcement front-seat belt laws, models suggest that rear-seat passengers and nonoccupants may be killed as a result of more dangerous driving by belted drivers. In the case of secondary enforcement front-seat belt laws, there is no favorable or unfavorable effect that is statistically significant. Models that employ self-reported seat belt usage rates from the Centers for Disease Control suggest an offsetting effect for rear-seat passengers and non-occupants as in the case of the models for primary seat belt laws.1
This paper investigates the effectiveness of New Jersey's mandatory belt use law (MUL) by testing specifically for: (1) a safety effect, and (2) a risk-compensation effect that could offset (in part) any safety impact. The main findings are that injury severity declined significantly in the 22 months following implementation of the MUL; but that accident frequency increased significantly. The increase in accidents may be explained only partially by increased driving mileage. These findings suggest that the real safety effect of the law may have been diluted by risk-compensating behavior.
A state cross-sectional model of traffic fatalities estimates the effectiveness of seat belts with data on usage from the Centers for Disease Control [Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (1987), henceforth BRFSS]. Seat belts have no statistically significant effect for total or driver or overall occupant fatalities. However, deaths for non-occupants and passengers increase with seat belt usage. The results suggest offsetting consumer behavior as driver drive more dangerously, due to seat belt laws, and non-occupants and passengers may be killed as a result. Care should be exercised in using these results, since the BRFSS data are based on telephone surveys. However, it has been shown here that the carefully gathered North Carolina observational data can be explained with BRFSS data.
For nearly a decade it has been commonly assumed that seat belt laws save lives. Using traffic fatality data from 1983 through 1993 this paper offers evidence to call this assumption into question. For several years traffic fatality rates have been declining in roughly equal proportions in both law states and non-law states. Moreover, the most current data reveals that while seat belt legislation is positively associated with increased safety belt use, neither seat belt laws nor seat belt use rates are associated in any substantial way with traffic death rates. Also included in the paper is an extended discussion of some of the most prominent difficulties involved in researching the relationship between seat belt laws and traffic fatalities.
This paper presents a parameter covariance matrix estimator which is consistent even when the disturbances of a linear regression model are heteroskedastic. This estimator does not depend on a formal model of the structure of the heteroskedasticity. By comparing the elements of the new estimator to those of the usual covariance estimator, one obtains a direct test for heteroskedasticity, since in the absence of heteroskedasticity, the two estimators will be approximately equal, but will generally diverge otherwise. The test has an appealing least squares interpretation.
Technological studies imply that annual highway deaths would be 20 percent greater without legally mandated installation of various safety devices on automobiles. However, this literature ignores offsetting effects of nonregulatory demand for safety and driver response to the devices. This article indicates that these offsets are virtually complete, so that regulation has not decreased highway deaths. Time-series (but not cross-section) data imply some saving of auto occupants' lives at the expense of more pedestrian deaths and more nonfatal accidents, a pattern consistent with optimal driver response to regulation.
A state cross-sectional model of traffic fatalities estimates the effectiveness of seat belt laws. Seat belt laws have no statistically significant effect on total or occupant fatalities. However, the results suggest that seat belt laws lead to increased non-occupant deaths possibly as a result of more dangerous driving. In an indirect fashion, the zero effect of seat belt laws on total fatalities may provide an argument for a favourable occupant effect that is offset by the unfavourable non-occupant effect.
This paper uses 1987 state-level data and least-squares regression to estimate a model of motor vehicle deaths in the United States. The model includes several factors accounted for in previous cross-sectional studies of these fatalities. The estimates suggest that income, the ratio of urban to rural driving, expenditures on highway police and safety, motor vehicle inspection laws, and adult seat belt use laws with secondary enforcement provisions are inversely related to motor vehicle death rates. They also indicate that volume of driving, speed, speed variance, driving density, alcohol consumption, temperature, and a dummy variable for western states are directly related to the rates.
This paper presents a critical review of state-of-the-art macro models for road accidents. Such a review is meant to identify and establish the significance of policy and socioeconomic variables affecting the level of road accidents. The aim is to identify those variables associated with effective policies and interventions to enable decision makers to improve the level of road safety. The variables that appear to affect the number of fatalities or injuries are: vehicle miles travelled (VMT), vehicle population, income (in its various forms), percentage of young drivers, intervention policies such as speed limits, periodic vehicle inspection, and minimum alcohol-drinking age. Viewed critically, the state-of-the-art models being used to explain and predict road accidents are still deficient. One possible approach to correcting this deficiency draws from consumer utility theory, using analytical models built on a newly constructed theoretical framework. Success in estimating such models may improve predictions of road accidents, thus demonstrating the comparative cost effectiveness of alternative intervention policies.
This paper examines the effects of the new 65 mile-per-hour (mph) speed limit on U.S. rural highway fatality counts. Separate analyses are conducted for each of the 40 states that had adopted the new (higher) limit by mid-1988. Using monthly Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data from January 1976 through November 1988, time-series regression equations--including policy variables, seasonal variables, and surrogate exposure variables--are estimated for each state. The results suggest that the new laws have increased fatalities on both rural interstate and rural noninterstate highways in most states, but also that these effects differ substantially across the states. For rural interstate fatalities the estimates suggest a median (among the 40 states) effect of the increased speed limit of roughly 15% more fatalities; the median estimates for rural noninterstates suggest a 5% increase in fatalities due to the increased speed limits. Estimates such as those reported here should be revised as more information becomes available.
This paper is a selective survey of models explaining motor vehicle death rates in the United States. First, it reviews Peltzman's 1975 study of the effect of automobile safety regulation and critiques of the study. Then it summarizes several subsequent statistical studies of highway fatalities. The surveyed studies are typically regression analyses of the impact of various factors on motor vehicle deaths. They are categorized in this paper according to which of three types of data they utilized: time-series; cross-sectional; or pooled time-series, cross-sectional. This paper notes what can be inferred collectively from the surveyed studies regarding the impacts of various factors on highway fatalities. It also discusses certain shortcomings of the studies in general along with possible remedies, and makes recommendations regarding future research. Tabular summaries of the statistical studies surveyed in this paper are included in the Appendix.
The technological approach to risk regulation seeks to lessen the incidence of mortality and morbidity by modifying environmental conditions. Insofar as risk-taking behavior is purposive, social scientists have predicted that technological progress may be negated by various forms of “risk compensation.” The validity of this hypothesis is tested in the transportation sector with data from the U.S. on the effects of new mandatory safety-belt-use laws. A fixed-effects model of traffic fatality counts is estimated using pooled data from 50 states during the 1975–1987 period. Results suggest that such laws have reduced mortality among car occupants to a degree that is compatible with the predictions of technologists. However, there is weak evidence of increased mortality among some nonoccupants, a pattern predicted by risk-compensation theorists. The lifesaving effects of belt-use laws are largest in states that permit primary police enforcement and appear to be somewhat larger for front-seat occupants age 21 and under. Although offsetting behavior appears to be small relative to lifesaving effects, it may take several more years for any compensatory behavior to achieve a new equilibrium.
This paper considers the use of [`]long-run cost functions' for congested networks in solving second-best network problems, in which capacity and tolls are instruments. We derive analytical results both for general cost and demand functions and for specific functional forms, namely Bureau of Public Roads cost functions and constant-elasticity demand functions. The latter are also used in a numerical simulation model. We consider second-best cases where only a sub-set of links in a network is subject to tolling and/or capacity choice, and cases with and without a self-financing constraint imposed. We will demonstrate that, under certain assumptions, second-best long-run cost (or actually: generalized price) functions can be derived for most of the cases of interest, which can be used in an applied network model as a substitute for the conventional short-run user cost functions. Doing so reduces the dimensionality of the problem and should therefore be helpful in speeding up procedures for finding second-best optima.