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Patent trends as a technological forecasting tool
Abstract
Patent indicators provide a very useful forecasting tool for decision makers in the public and private sectors. These tools are useable for Research and Development planning, for competition analyses, and for analytical studies of how technologies emerge, mature and pass away. Currently in the public and private sectors there are numerous indicators of performance for sales, finance and similar issues but no corresponding information on technological performance. Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, has identified several families of indicators which can be extracted from patent data to measure corporate or national technological performance. These include measures such as: - Patent activity level of firms' intellectual property - Age of firms' technology bases - Relative legal/technological strength of firms and similar measures.
... To address this research question, we turn to patent analytics (Campbell, 1983;Ashton and Sen, 1988;Ernst, 2003). We show how patent analytics may shape innovation management during crises (e.g., Campbell, 1983;Archibugi et al., 2013a;Guderian, 2019). ...
... To address this research question, we turn to patent analytics (Campbell, 1983;Ashton and Sen, 1988;Ernst, 2003). We show how patent analytics may shape innovation management during crises (e.g., Campbell, 1983;Archibugi et al., 2013a;Guderian, 2019). By drawing on longitudinal and crosssectional patent data, we present four distinct case studies. ...
... Although scholars have acknowledged that patent information can be used, among others, for technological forecasting, business planning, or strategic 4 R&D Management 2020 R&D planning, the value and use of patent information in crises have largely been overlooked, resulting in a knowledge gap (Campbell, 1983;Ashton and Sen, 1988;Ernst, 2003). By means of this research, we fill this void. ...
Crises like the COVID‐19 pandemic affect firms’ innovation management and decision making. On the downside, crises lead to detriments like budget constraints, to which firms often respond by reducing their innovation activities. On the upside, crises are opportunities, where some firms exploiting changing market requirements and necessities excel. No matter in which direction, decision makers must react quickly but often rely on ad‐hoc decisions or even gut feeling when drafting their crisis response strategies. Through a series of distinct cases, we demonstrate that innovation management may fill this void through patent analytics. Drawing on biochemical expertise, we particularly describe the functions and effects of COVID‐19. To counter downside detriments, firms may circumvent budget constraints by discerning patents that can be (1) monetized, for example via sales or licensing deals, or (2) abandoned to achieve cost‐savings, allowing firms to maintain their innovation activities. To realize upside opportunities, firms and governments may use patent analytics to detect key biotechnology firms that are likely to successfully develop treatments and vaccinations against pandemics like COVID‐19. Promulgated U.S. interest in relocating foreign firms to the United States is not without technological and commercial reasoning. Herein, the insights of this study contribute to a better understanding of the use of patent information, such as smart patent indicators, harmonized patent data, novel annuity fee measures, and hand‐collected datasets of COVID‐19 and related antibodies’ patents to the management of innovation in times of crisis.
... Out of the variety of methods and sources used in technology intelligence and technological forecasting, patent data-based analytics has proven reliable and accurate [e.g. Campbell (1983); Ernst (1997); Altuntas et al. (2015); Mathew (2015)]. Reasons for this reliability include the timely availability of patents in a systematic, documented manner, also for¯rms that are not subject to publication requirements on their research and development e®orts and outcomes [e.g. ...
... The most common approaches to assign importance or value to patents are to analyze their (forward) citations [e.g. Campbell (1983); Ernst (1997); Daim et al. (2006); Nair and Mathew (2015)] or international scope and patent family sizes [Lanjouw et al. (1998); Harho® et al. (2003); Fischer and Leidinger (2014)]. Other conventional measures span, for example, di®erent types of citations, technology classes and their relatedness, and patent ages [e.g. . ...
... Patent analytics has proven most reliable and accurate for reasons such as the timely availability of patents in a systematic manner for all¯rms regardless of their sizes or publication requirements [e.g. Campbell (1983);Pavitt (1985); Basberg (1987); Brockho® (1992); Ernst (1996Ernst ( , 1997; Altuntas et al. (2015); Mathew (2015)]. Firms conducting pro¯cient patent analytics outperform rms who do not regularly apply patent analytics [Ernst et al. (2016)]. ...
Patent information plays a key role in technology intelligence. As granted patent rights provide temporary exclusivity to commercialize inventions, emerging technologies are marked by brisk increases in patenting, revealing patent-based information as sources for corporate technology intelligence. In this paper, I analyze one such emerging technology, smart houses, which refers to connected and centrally controlled everyday household solutions. I provide a detailed technology landscape study that tracks longitudinal patenting changes in the technology during the 18-year period from 2000 to 2017. Central to the analyses is the use of smart indicators and longitudinal annual data, allowing tracking changes over time. The analyses encompass general patenting trends in the technology of smart houses, including the detection of key players, pertinent technology class developments, and most relevant countries for the technology of smart houses. The case study results indicate that the use of smart indicators and longitudinal data supplements established patent indicators in technology intelligence by providing additional insights to the emergence of new technologies that cannot be detected by conventional measures.
... Popp (2005) investigated the strategic use of patent information and how this information could be used to measure technological changes in environmental models. According to Campbell (1983), patents have strategic value, which is closely related to measurement with the help of patent documents. Campbell (1983) also stated that: ...
... According to Campbell (1983), patents have strategic value, which is closely related to measurement with the help of patent documents. Campbell (1983) also stated that: ...
This study focused on investigating the technological context of cellulose and its derivatives and their applications to the biomedical area. Therefore, patentometric analysis of patent documents was conducted. A scenario containing information related to the most prominent players in the biomedical area and the places with high relevance for biomedical cellulose technologies and its markets of interest was built. This study used several tools of patentometry to forecast when the use of commercial cellulose or cellulose derivatives might be replaced by the newly created ones. The analysis of technological maturity showed that, in a few years, the market will be saturated with biomedical products that use cellulose as one of its raw materials, and the known molecules will be replaced by recently invented materials based on chemically modified cellulose. This study of patentometry related to technological specialization identified cellulose technologies applied to the treatment of eye or ocular diseases. The newest and most cited patents indicated the preference of companies to use commercial cellulose derivatives to formulate their biomedical products instead of creating new cellulose derivatives to be applied to their compositions. This methodology can help researchers and decision-makers choose the best way to undertake a project involving the technological applications of cellulose to medicine.
Graphic abstract
Patent big data analysis helping researches doing business using cellulose technologies
... Segundo Campbell [22], dados provenientes da análise de patentes são fontes valiosas de informação para a previsão de mudanças tecnológicas. Além disso, esses dados podem ser usados para prospectar tecnologias emergentes. ...
... Além disso, a análise de patentes pode indicar o padrão de crescimento de uma tecnologia (emergente, madura ou em declínio), bem como as atividades tecnológicas que estão em andamento. Também é possível identificar quais firmas estão prestes a entrar ou sair de um determinado campo tecnológico, o seu tempo de mercado e o tipo de base tecnológica, e as forças tecnológicas relativas de cada uma delas[22].Uma limitação dessa técnica é que, mesmo na maioria dos países desenvolvidos (onde o processo de publicação de patentes costuma ser mais ágil) as informações sobre patentes são usualmente defasadas de dois ou mais anos, dependendo do tempo entre o depósito e sua publicação. Além disso, algumas indústrias fazem pouco uso de patentes, preferindo1 Artifício utilizado por pessoas físicas ou jurídicas para preservar a natureza confidencial de uma informação e evitar que a mesma seja divulgada, adquirida ou usada por terceiros não autorizados, desde que tal informação seja secreta, tenha valor comercial por ser secreta, e tenha sido objeto de precauções razoáveis para mantê-la secreta pela pessoa legalmente responsável. ...
Este trabalho apresenta um novo método quantitativo de prospecção tecnológica para apoio à tomada de decisão na área de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (CTI). O objetivo principal é priorizar tecnologias de uma determinada área com base em um método multicritério conhecido como Processo de Análise Hierárquica (AHP). A ideia é utilizar um novo conjunto de critérios que consideram parâmetros quantitativos relacionados ao número de registros de patentes e a uma medida do alinhamento entre as tecnologias e
os objetivos estratégicos da organização que deseja priorizá-las. O resultado é uma listagem das potenciais tecnologias ordenadas segundo índices calculados a partir da ponderação das pontuações parciais obtidas para cada critério de mensuração, indicando aquelas mais promissoras considerando-se a sua difusão e o seu alinhamento com a organização. O método proposto é aplicado a um estudo de caso de tecnologias na área de materiais de carbono para o Exército Brasileiro.
... Patent certificates are one of the most valuable indicators for identifying and predicting technology trends. They contain explicit information and tacit knowledge that represent technological concepts, topics and activities related to research and development, which can be used to support decision making (Campbell, 1983;Griliches, 1990). Therefore, considering the importance of the aviation industry in the field of international economy, the present study utilises patent certificate information, which has attracted much attention in international circles today, leading companies and new business areas in this field to examines the industry. ...
... Decisions that can include early warning signals for future market changes or encouragement for future competitions. Over the last decade, continuous growth of patents has led to the progression of technological knowledge (Campbell, 1983;Griliches, 1990). Comendador et al. (2012) in their article examine the liberalisation of the air transport industry in Spain and explore the opportunities and challenges that exist. ...
... Patent certificates are one of the most valuable indicators for identifying and predicting technology trends. They contain explicit information and tacit knowledge that represent technological concepts, topics and activities related to research and development, which can be used to support decision making (Campbell, 1983;Griliches, 1990). Therefore, considering the importance of the aviation industry in the field of international economy, the present study utilises patent certificate information, which has attracted much attention in international circles today, leading companies and new business areas in this field to examines the industry. ...
... Decisions that can include early warning signals for future market changes or encouragement for future competitions. Over the last decade, continuous growth of patents has led to the progression of technological knowledge (Campbell, 1983;Griliches, 1990). Comendador et al. (2012) in their article examine the liberalisation of the air transport industry in Spain and explore the opportunities and challenges that exist. ...
Organizations have to identify and exploit new business areas to ensure stable and continuous growth. The air transport is an important pillar of international transportation and is one of the most important economic activities for development and economic progress. In this research, 115 patents between 2000 and 2017 were reviewed to identify new areas in the air transport. After the selection of the most important criteria for the companies' assessment, we used the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (Fuzzy AHP), triangular Chang method, to gain weights of criteria, and then, by the data envelopment analysis(DEA) and BCC output model, companies operating in the air transport were ranked; companies (AIRBUS, LTA, BOEING) earned the most points. Ultimately, through the text mining and extraction of information, products and new areas of the industry were identified that the domains and products (AIRCRAFT, AIRPLANE, JET) were more attractive to companies than other products.
... Mit der Verwendung von semantischen und bibliografischen Analysemethoden werden Patentdaten u.a. zur Erkennung und Prognose technologischer Trends oder als Frühwarnsystem für Marktveränderungen genutzt [8,9]. Im Kontext der Technologiediffusion sind bereits einige Ansätze zu finden, die zumeist auf Basis bibliografischer Metadaten eine solche Diffusion messen [8][9][10][11]. ...
... zur Erkennung und Prognose technologischer Trends oder als Frühwarnsystem für Marktveränderungen genutzt [8,9]. Im Kontext der Technologiediffusion sind bereits einige Ansätze zu finden, die zumeist auf Basis bibliografischer Metadaten eine solche Diffusion messen [8][9][10][11]. Gleichwohl werden auch Ansätze diskutiert, die semantische Strukturen zur Messung der Technologiediffusion nutzen [4,12]. Auftreten von Wörtern in Dokumenten [18]. ...
Die Platzierung einer Technologie auf einem Markt ergibt unterschiedliche Möglichkeiten hinsichtlich ihrer Diffusion. Einige Technologien verbreiten sich schnell auf dem gesamten Markt, andere werden dagegen erst in bestimmten Marktsegmenten eingeführt und diffundieren anschließend in weitere Segmente. Das Wissen über die Richtung einer Technologiediffusion kann dem IP-Management bei der Beurteilung von Patentaktivitäten helfen und damit zu einem Wettbewerbsvorteil führen. Die bisherigen Ansätze zur Messung der Technologiediffusion durch Patente beschränken sich zumeist auf die Verwendung bibliografischer Metadaten wie Patentklassifikationen und -zitationen und unterliegen mehreren Restriktionen. Mit diesem Beitrag wird ein neuartiger Ansatz der Patentanalyse mittels Topic Modeling vorgestellt und dieser anhand eines Fallbeispiels der Diffusion der RFID-Technologie validiert. Resultierend aus Zeitreihenanalysen werden direkte Maßnahmen für die Orientierung des strategischen IP-Management technologieorientierter Unternehmen abgeleitet.
... This is a reasonable investment strategy because technology is one of the most common factors that affects the success of new product development, directly or indirectly [2][3][4]. New products produced by new technologies for new market have resulted in between 40% and 90% of the increase in national wealth in most countries [5]. However, most companies that are undergoing successful growth are facing pressure to develop new technology and products because they are changing rapidly [6]. ...
This paper proposes a method that can reliably monitor the adoption of existing technology by Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) and K-means clustering using cited patents. TF-IDF and K-means clustering can extract patent information when the number of patents is sufficiently large. When the number of patents is too small for TF-IDF and K-means clustering to be reliable, the method considers patents that were cited by the originally set of patents. The mixed set of citing patents and cited patents is the new subject of analysis. As a case study, we have focused in agricultural tractor in which new technologies were adopted to achieve automated driving. TF-IDF and K-means clustering alone failed to monitor the adoption of new technology but the proposed method successfully monitored it. We anticipate that our method can ensure the reliability of patent monitoring even when the number of patents is small.
... papers, books, patents) contain significant research results that are valuable to the academic, industry, business, and policy-making communities. Through intently analyze, they can highlight technological details and relations, unveil research trends and business trends, or help make investment policy (Campbell, 1983). In recent years, keyword analysis had been recognized as an important task at the academical and even governmental level in some countries with different applications and domains; such as CRM, tourism industry, patents, news and so on (Juanzi, Qi'na, & Kuo, 2007;Kevork & Vrechopoulos, 2009;Tseng, Lin, & Lin, 2007;Wu, Xiao, Dong, Wang, & Xue, 2012). ...
Social commerce is rapidly growing owing to widespread Web 2.0 and Web 3.0 applications in electronic commerce. Today, social commerce is approximately known both in terms of practical as well as theoretical area; and little effort has been made to determine the current state of the studies in this new research area. In this paper, we systematically review studies in social commerce to have a better understanding of social commerce. We perform two stage processes and identify 81 studies in stage 1 and 55 studies in stage 2 that related to social commerce based on the research protocol. The results reveal that academic research in the area of social commerce has started since 2007. Studies are in different themes, but most of them are related to customer behavior, social commerce website design, and social commerce adoption. This study shows that social commerce is promising research area; it specifies the direction for future research by identifying research gaps based on the results of the systematic review and investigating the studies related to the main topics in recent four years.
... Technology forecasting has attracted the attention of many scholars (for a review, see Cho and Daim, 2013) with considerable research on patent-based forecasting methods (Altuntas et al., 2015b;Campbell, 1983;Ernst, 2003). Scholars have approached technology forecasting using patent analysis with quantitative and qualitative methods such as explanatory models (Altuntas et al., 2015a;Choi and Yun, 2014;Harell and Daim, 2009), neural networks (Jun and Lee, 2012), the technology S-curve (Altuntas et al., 2015b;Chen et al., 2011;Daim et al., 2006;Dubaric et al., 2011), the Delphi method (Choi and Park, 2009;Hsieh, 2013), and data envelopment analysis (Sharma and Thomas, 2008). ...
Developing technologies for a transfer from science to market is a key element of research-intensive organizations such as innovation management centers that work closely with inventors to commercialize their technological innovations. To advance the commercial viability of technological innovations, this paper proposes a framework that integrates topic modeling, survival analysis, and judgment of subject matter experts to forecast promising technologies using patents as data resources. Regarding the commercial viability of identified technologies, our empirical analysis focuses on patents and licensing data from a prominent innovation management center over a 20-year period. We are able to identify technologies that are statistically significant for predicting the likelihood and the time until a patent is commercialized, and suggest a way to assess their scope of technological impact. Our results contribute to the understanding of promising healthcare technologies and help R&D managers to develop the knowledge they need to advocate technologies in support of commercial returns.
... 14 Traditionally, the number of filed or granted patents, or patent citations, was used to distinguish more qualitative from less valuable patents. 15 However, simply counting patents or patent citations ignored the effects of age and other key factors. 16 For example, the older a patent became, the more time it had to gain citations. ...
TEACHING CASE with TEACHING NOTE: Three scientists from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) planned to start their own academic spinoff by commercializing a new software technology they had developed. The underlying software technology was invented by the scientists, but legally owned by KIT because the scientists were employed by KIT during the discovery. The three scientists set up a meeting with the institute to discuss settlement terms for the successful creation of a spinoff business. The scientists wanted to discuss whether they would be able to use their technology as part of their new venture, and if so, how that would work. What interests would be in conflict between the scientists and KIT? What issues needed to be resolved before the three scientists could successfully launch their new spinoff venture?
... Une très grande majorité d'auteurs s'accorde depuis de nombreuses années sur le potentiel des données brevets dans l'orientation de la stratégie de la firme (Campbell, 1983 ;Narin et al, 1987 ;Wilson, 1987 ;Martinet et Ribault, 1989 ;Brockhoff, 1992 ;Ashton et Klavans, 1997 ;Porter et Cunningham, 2004). Mais pour que les résultats qui en découlent soient pertinents, il est indispensable de disposer de données représentatives du sujet d'interrogation, impliquant un travail important au moment de la requête. ...
L’agriculture est un secteur qui connaît de forts bouleversements depuis plusieurs années en France. Face à cette instabilité croissante, les firmes ont besoin de moyens pour caractériser leur environnement externe et ainsi être en capacité de saisir les opportunités qui se créent. Cette thèse a pour objectif de développer une méthode d’intelligence technologique qui pourra être intégrée au sein du groupe Avril. Pour cela, nous nous appuyons sur le cas de la moindre utilisation des antibiotiques dans l’élevage.Dans un premier temps, nous montrons en quoi les méthodes d’intelligence technologique peuvent effectivement apporter un soutien au management de l’innovation chez Avril. Nous étudions l’agro-industrie et plus particulièrement l’élevage à travers les concepts de paradigmes, de trajectoires ou encore de régimes technologiques qui se retrouvent dans la littérature évolutionniste. Nous montrons que le paradigme de l’antibiotique dans la santé animale est toujours d’actualité mais qu’un changement de trajectoire est en cours. Cela justifie le recours aux méthodes d’intelligence technologique.Dans un second temps, nous développerons une méthode d’intelligence technologique pour le groupe, appliquée à la caractérisation des solutions scientifiques et techniques pour une diminution de l’utilisation des antibiotiques dans l’élevage. A l’issue de ce cas, un travail plus poussé sur le cas précis des phages est réalisé. Nous montrons à travers ce travail comment ces méthodes peuvent s’intégrer au sein du processus organisationnel de la firme.
... As the PUREX process has been one of the successful methods to reprocess spent nuclear fuel for several decades, further enhancements are being carried out in the worldwide. Patents combine extensive technological and commercial information, which reflect the direction of the technology development [9]. ...
The PUREX process has been one of the most successful methods to reprocess spent nuclear fuel for several decades, and further enhancements have being carried out in the worldwide. The published global patents about the PUREX technology are investigated in this work. The technology forecasting and the development strategy of PUREX process was provided from the view of patents, based on the nations, the technology field, the trend in the number of patent applications. The purpose of this work is to help the technical personnel in this field to understand the advanced development of PUREX technology from a new perspective.
... Hence, an entire research area, called patent mining or patent analysis, aims to assist patent analysts and policy makers in finding, processing, and analyzing patents. Patent analysis can reveal market trends and novel industrial solutions that can lead to investment decisions [1]. ...
Patents contain a wealth of information about technological progress and market trends. Many existing techniques for patent assessment rely on citation analysis. Despite its importance, citation analysis alone is not adequate to identify all important patents for a given topic. We propose the simultaneous use of eight criteria for patent ranking and evaluation. Additionally, we investigate computationally the effect on ranking quality when fewer than eight criteria are utilized. Contrary to previous approaches, the proposed methodology does not require expert opinions to weigh the different criteria and evaluate the patents. The solution of an intuitive linear optimization problem provides optimal weights for the proposed criteria. These weights are subsequently utilized in a systematic multicriteria methodology for patent ranking. The proposed methodology has been implemented in a web-based decision support system and has been validated in the context of identifying the most important patents for the production of twenty-two chemicals.
... Patenty są ważnymi wskaźnikami, które można wykorzystać do badania rozwoju technologii (Campbell, 1983). Zdaniem Ernst'a (1997) wnioski patentowe mogą mierzyć wpływ działań badawczo-rozwojowych. Andersen (1999) Analizując liczbę patentów lub liczbę wnioskodawców z różnych krajów, naukowcy mogą szybko określić, które kraje przejmują wiodącą rolę w różnych obszarach technologii. ...
The thesis is the result of desire to explore the nature and significance of 3D printing technology in today's society. Its main goal is to identify the future state of the market for 3D printing
technology used in construction. The study was based on the information collected on the current
state of 3D technology, included in the literature and obtained directly from experts.
The first chapter of the paper presents the essence of 3D printing and discusses the history
of its development from the perspective of activities for the commercialization of technology. The
classification of existing additive manufacturing techniques has been described depending on its
purpose. Based on consultations with specialists from the Pomeranian Science and Technology
Park and from the Pomeranian Research and Technology Center, a list of exploitation materials
most often used for printing construction elements has been prepared.
The second chapter presents examples of the use of 3D printing in construction based on
the most industrial-active enterprises, their successes and the impact on the development of technology.
The third chapter introduces the concept of technology forecast, discusses selected methods and tools used to predict its future state. The essence and methods of conducting morphological analysis, methods based on technology monitoring and expert knowledge are presented.
The fourth chapter is the analytical part of the work. The collected and organized data on
the state of 3D technology used in construction has been analyzed on the basis of the methods
described in the previous chapter.
The fifth and last chapter is an assessment of the development of the studied technique on
the basis of conclusions drawn from the conducted analyzes and expert opinions. The determinants
that influence the development of technologies, such as machines, materials, solution demand and
the accompanying legal aspects have been identified. The conducted prognostic study allowed to
answer the question about the state of 3D printing technology in construction in the next 5 years.
The main goal and subordinate goals of the work have been achieved and implemented in
individual chapters.
... In all years, more patents classified as B60L000800 occurred than B60K001600. In technology life cycle theory (Campbell, 1983;Haupt, Kloyer and Lange, 2007), this period corresponds to "initial phase" in which costs of R&D are high and fundamental scientific and technological problems must be resolved. From 2004, a R&D expanding phase is observed when GVP technologies starts to gather strength and theirs use has increased interest by manufacturers.. ...
The rapid growth of electric engine application as vehicle propulsion system is one of the main approaches to tackle its oil dependence. This paper aims at investigating main technological routes, characteristics of main inventions, and indicating the most promising and emerging technologies in vehicle propulsion systems. Based on solar and wind inventions, this paper analyzes 3,876 patents of green vehicle propulsion (GVP) developed between 1990 and 2016. Theoretical findings proposed a new classification (long-term, recent, and occasional innovators) for patent assignees that can be applied to other technological fields. It also pointed out the robustness of technological routes as a tool to investigate the technology evolution and to identify of most emerging and promising inventions. The results also denote a non-collaborative development and protection profile for GVP technologies implying that companies prefer to solo development instead of joint R&D. Practical contributions aim to support R&D managers and industry experts in their decisions, offering quantitative and qualitative information about most relevant technologies, players and relationships, as well as their interest of market protection.
... By following the development over time of the number of users it will be possible to observe these dynamics. Furthermore we want to apply forecasting techniques on the information we will extract, since patent trends are a great source for forecasting [47]. 3. New entrants enter the industry by targeting highly specific categories of users (niches): New entrants may develop innovations that target niche categories, instead of large categories. ...
Patents contain a large quantity of information which is usually neglected. This information is hidden beneath technical and juridical jargon and therefore so many potential readers cannot take advantage of it. State of the art natural language processing tools and in particular named entity recognition tools, could be used to detect valuable concepts in patent documents.
The purpose of the present research is to design a method capable of automatically detecting and extracting one of the multiple entities hidden in patents: the users of the invention.
The method is based on a new approach tailored for users extraction by integrating state-of-the-art computational linguistics tools with a large knowledge base. Furthermore the paper shows a comparison among different machine learning algorithms with the twofold aim of achieving the highest recall and evaluating the performance in terms of precision and computational effort.
Finally, a case study on two patent sets has been conducted to evaluate the effectiveness and the output of the entire tool-chain.
... Patent documents not only contain 90%-95% of the world's technical information (Wang, Zeyuan, and Haiyan 2010), their content is also stored in a structured database format, making them a highly practical source of data for analysis (Campbell 1983;Ernst 2003). Beyond their international patent classifications (IPC), patent documents also include information about the patent assignees, grant numbers, titles, abstracts, claims, the year the patent was granted, and so on (Song, Seol, and Park 2016). ...
There is a great and urgent necessity for appropriate data and methods to help organisations select appropriate R&D (Research and Development) partners. In response, this study presents a structured framework for identifying and selecting the R&D partners with the greatest potential to meet a given technological need. The formal methods in the framework include systematic information collection, patent portfolio analysis, technological similarity screening, and semantic evaluation that views subject-action-object (SAO) sentence structures as problem-solution patterns. The results of an empirical evaluation, with dye-sensitive solar cells as the case, demonstrate that using this framework can reveal more appropriate R&D partners for technological needs (TNS) in less time and with less cost than methods based solely on one criterion.
... R. Campbell и др. [10] показали, что патентные данные могут служить полезным инструментом прогнозирования для принятия решений в государственном, отраслевом и личном секторах производственной деятельности. ...
В работе, на основании анализа многочисленных публикаций, предлагается классификация методов прогнозирования, среди которых авторы отдали предпочтение патентному анализу. Сущность использования данного метода заключается в создании базы данных патентов в исследуемой области знаний и построении на базе Международной патентной классификации (МПК) временных рядов по основным группам и подгруппам МПК. По динамике изменения количества выдаваемых патентов в анализируемых тематиках предлагается выявлять перспективные и прорывные технологии развития конкретных технологических направлений. Учитывая, что патентование опережает реализацию технических решений в производстве, формируется вывод о появлении в ближайшие годы новых продуктов по выявленным прорывным и перспективным технологиям
... One of the most important factors in establishing successful technology strategies is to understand and identify trends in technological development (Choi and Park, 2009). Several techniques and models were developed to detect these trends, and there have been numerous papers (Andersen, 1999;Campbell, 1983;Ernst, 1997;Gim et al., 2016;Suh and Sohn, 2015;Park et al., 2016) using patents as indicators of technological trends and development. The number of patent applications has increased dramatically, which has caused the rapid generation of continuous streams of information. ...
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to develop an approach that can detect abnormal deviations in the time series models for technology forecasting. The detected modifications provide a basis for understanding the determinants and impact of the corresponding change.
Design/methodology/approach
The proposed approach is based on monitoring residual values (the difference between the observation and the forecasted value) continuously using statistical control charts (SCCs). The residuals that are out of the expected limits are considered an alert indicating a remarkable change. To demonstrate the use of the proposed approach, a time series model was fitted to a number of TV-related patent counts. Subsequently, model residuals were used to determine the limits of the SCCs.
Findings
A number of patents granted in the year 2012 violated the upper control limit. A further analysis has shown that there is a linkage between the abnormal patent counts and the emergence of LCD TVs.
Practical implications
Change in technology may dramatically affect the accuracy of a forecasting model. The need for a parameter update indicates a significant change (emergence or death of a technology) in the technological environment. This may lead to the revision of managerial actions in R&D plans and investment decisions.
Originality/value
The proposed methodology brings a novel approach for abnormal data detection and provides a basis for understanding the determinants and impact of the corresponding change.
... Patent documents not only contain 90%-95% of the world's technical information (Wang, Zeyuan, and Haiyan 2010), their content is also stored in a structured database format, making them a highly practical source of data for analysis (Campbell 1983;Ernst 2003). Beyond their international patent classifications (IPC), patent documents also include information about the patent assignees, grant numbers, titles, abstracts, claims, the year the patent was granted, and so on (Song, Seol, and Park 2016). ...
... Patent analysis is performed to understand the nature of the technology and industry such as detailed properties of technology and industrial trends [11]. In addition, patent analysis can extract various information in the patent, through classification, visualization, and clustering analysis [7]. ...
Since patents contain various types of objective technological information, they are used to identify the characteristics of technology fields. Text mining in patent analysis is employed in various fields such as trend analysis and technology classification, and knowledge flow among technologies. However, since keyword-based text mining has the limitation whereby, when screening useful keywords, it frequently omits meaningful keywords, analyzers therefore need to repeat the careful scrutiny of the derived keywords to clarify the meaning of keywords. In this research, we structure meaningful keyword sets related to technological information from patent documents; then we layer the keywords, depending on the level of information. This research involves two steps. First, the characteristics of technological information are analyzed by reviewing the patent law and investigating the description of patent documents. Second, the technological information is structured by considering the information types, and the keywords in each type are layered through natural language processing. Consequently, the structured and layered keyword set does not omit useful keywords and the analyzer can easily understand the meaning of each keyword.
... A careful analysis of the technical information in patents is expressed visually as a patent map or matrix, which simplifies the task of understanding complex patent information [16], and also highlights various elements of knowledge about technologies and competitive positions [17]. Moreover, a patent map or matrix can provide details about technologies, relationships among them, business trends, and clues to create new solutions in the industry; the visualizations thereby support decisionmaking for technology development and investment [18] [19]. ...
For the purposes of technology planning and R&D strategy development, we present a semi-automated method that extracts text information from patent data, uses natural language processing to extract the key technical information of the patent, then visualizes this information in matrix form. We tried to support qualitative analysis of patent contents by extracting functions, components, and contexts, which are the most important information about inventions. We validated the method by applying it to patent data related to nanosensors. The matrix can emphasize technical information that have not been exploited in patents, and thereby identify development opportunities.
... However, it requires an in-depth study to undercover the diffuse mechanism of knowledge in inspiring technological innovations. To measure innovative activities, patent-based proxies have been validated by a large body of literature (Campbell, 1983;Curran and Leker, 2011;Kim and Lee, 2015;Song et al., 2018). Combined with a scientific and reasonable diffusion mode, it is possible to predict the developing trajectory of technological innovations with patent-based indicators. ...
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the diffusion patterns of knowledge in inspiring technological innovations and to enable monitoring development trends of technological innovations based on patent data analysis, thus, to manage knowledge wisely to innovate.
Design/methodology/approach
The notion of knowledge innovation potential (KIP) is proposed to measure the innovativeness of knowledge by the cumulative number of patents originated from its inspiration. KIP calculating formula is regressed in forms of two specific diffusion models by conducting a series of empirical studies with the patent-based indicators involving forward and backward citation numbers to reveal knowledge managing strategies regarding innovative activities.
Findings
Two specific diffusion models for regressing KIP formula are compared by empirical studies with the result indicating the Gompertz model has higher accuracy than the Logistic model to describe the developing curve of technological innovations. Moreover, the analysis of patent-based indicators over diffusion stages also revealed that patents applied at earlier diffusion stages normally has higher forward citation numbers indicating higher innovativeness meanwhile the patents applied at the latter stages usually requiring more knowledge inflows observed by their larger non-patent citation and backward citation amounts.
Originality/value
Although there is a large body of literature concerning knowledge-based technological innovation, there still room for discussing the mechanism of how knowledge diffuses and inspired knowledge. To the best of authors' knowledge, this study is the first attempt to quantitate the innovativeness of knowledge in technological innovation from the knowledge diffusion perspective with findings to support rational knowledge management related to innovation activities.
... Patents are known to contain more than 90% of the technical information existing in the world, and 80% of the technical information existing in patent documents is not published in any other form of document [2]. Therefore, patents are a major competitive strategy to categorize commercial value based on the source information of technology; researchers use patent analysis as a practical tool to infer various types of information [3,4]. ...
Based on the rapid development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), all industries are preparing for a paradigm shift as a result of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Therefore, it is necessary to study the importance and diffusion of technology and, through this, the development and direction of core technologies. Leading countries such as the United States and China are focusing on artificial intelligence (AI)’s great potential and are working to establish a strategy to preempt the continued superiority of national competitiveness through AI technology. This is because artificial intelligence technology can be applied to all industries, and it is expected to change the industrial structure and create various business models. This study analyzed the leading artificial intelligence technology to strengthen the market’s environment and industry competitiveness. We then analyzed the lifecycle of the technology and evaluated the direction of sustainable development in industry. This study collected and studied patents in the field of artificial intelligence from the US Patent Office, where technology-related patents are concentrated. All patents registered as artificial intelligence technology were analyzed by text mining, using the abstracts of each patent. The topic was extracted through topic modeling and defined as a detailed technique. Promising/mature skills were analyzed through a regression analysis of the extracted topics. In addition, the Bass model was applied to the promising technologies, and each technology was studied in terms of the technology lifecycle. Eleven topics were extracted via topic modeling. A regression analysis was conducted to identify the most promising/mature technology, and the results were analyzed with three promising technologies and five mature technologies. Promising technologies include Augmented Reality (AR)/Virtual Reality (VR), Image Recognition and Identification Technology. Mature technologies include pattern recognition, machine learning platforms, natural language processing, knowledge representation, optimization, and solving. This study conducts a quantitative analysis using patent data to derive promising technologies and then presents the objective results. In addition, this work then applies the Bass model to the promising artificial intelligence technology to evaluate the development potential and technology diffusion of each technology in terms of its growth cycle. Through this, the growth cycle of AI technology is analyzed in a complex manner, and this study then predicts the replacement timing between competing technologies.
... Therefore, patent analysis has become a strategic tool in technology trend analysis and its forecasting area. Patents have updated information on technology areas and are the best tools for technology forecasting and technology decision-making [32,45,46]. Hence, patent analysis has been executed with a vast range of methods to achieve a wide range of objectives. ...
Information technologies (ITs) have been playing an important role in improving our society, and the fast evolution of ITs creates a competitive environment not only for companies but also for regions. Hence, recognizing the future trend of technologies can be effective in decision-making with regard to technology selection and investment. Blockchain technology with its vast and impressive applications has received considerable attention from researchers, investors, and public agencies. The purpose of this research is to investigate blockchain technology to explore its trends according to their classification by use of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) database. Furthermore, we particularly evaluate the registered patents in the world's most well-known patent databases such as the USA patent database. We drew the current technology trends in blockchain patents by applying the text mining and clustering approach. The results represent that the registered patents in the USA patent database have been achieved in the growth phase. That means, attention to the blockchain is rising nowadays and most patents focused the cryptocurrencies and their application in finance. However, blockchain technology is in the emergence phase and is evolving by researchers and inventors.
... The direct output of technological innovation is patent, which contains many technical research details and economic intelligence of an industry (Campbell 1983). Using data analysis to classify and integrate the collected patents, researchers can obtain valuable information (Kyebambe et al. 2017). ...
Coal consumption brings a lot of coal fly ash (CFA). It requires interdisciplinary efforts in research, policy, and practice to improve the utilization of CFA. Although there have been a lot of achievements in technological innovation, the utilization of CFA is still difficult to match its output. So, it is urgent to explore how to guide its effective innovation. This paper uses social network analysis to discuss the characteristics of the collaborative innovation network of CFA comprehensive utilization technology in China. Then, this paper uses regression analysis to explore the differences in innovation performance under different research and development (R&D) backgrounds. The results show that (1) based on the network-level indicators, the collaborative innovation scale has an obvious trend of expanding. Partnerships increased from 20 to 574. Meanwhile, the network shows obvious scale-free and “small-world” characteristics, indicating that innovation resources are concentrated in a few organizations. (2) Based on the node-level indicators, the major contributor has shifted from universities and research institutions to enterprises. Enterprises account for the highest proportion (73%) and have the highest centrality (8.3). The betweenness centrality of the universities is 265, and only 14% of the organizations are universities which means universities play an important role in connecting different organizations in the network, but their participation in the collaborative innovation is insufficient. (3) Based on the collaborative relationship-level indicators, the cooperation is lack of depth. Only a small number of organizations, especially enterprises, have stable partners, showing the characteristic of “low cooperation width and high cooperation depth,” which means fewer partners but more frequently collaborative innovation. (4) Based on the innovation performance, the innovation performance under the category of cooperative R&D, especially industry-academy cooperation, is better than that of independent R&D. But, industry-academy cooperation only occupied 43% of collaborative relationships in the network. Finally, this paper puts forward suggestions for governments from five aspects: decentralization, defining roles of enterprise and university, encouraging collaboration, changing the idea of the patent application, and promoting deeper cooperation.
... Patents are legally binding documents providing protection to the intellectual property of the patentee within a certain time period. Since patents are complete technical documents publicly available with descriptions of the results of research in clear technical details, patents are useful references to help plan investment strategies (Campbell, 1983;Jung, 2003). ...
Introduction. Enterprise decision-makers can use news media to help guide investment decisions, and patents are publicly available documents describing research and development outputs. This work sought to leverage the information extracted from news articles and patent documents to identify companies holding patents about emerging technologies. This helped to pinpoint the companies with growth potential.
Method. We used text mining techniques to extract hot terms for novel technologies and products from news articles and patent documents to identify the supply chain companies holding patent portfolios in emerging technologies.
Analysis. We identified eighteen public companies in the supply chain of the automotive industry in Taiwan. The data envelopment analysis-based Malmquist productivity index was adopted to evaluate their relative performance growth over time.
Results. The experimental results show that most of the companies identified by the proposed method had promising growth potential.
Conclusions. The results of this research indicate that the supply chain companies identified by the hot terms in news articles and patent documents possessed development potential. This could assist decision-makers in planning investment strategies.
... According to Asche [31], about 80% of the technical information contained in a patent document is not available in other types of sources. Therefore, in-depth and appropriate analyses of patents can enable a better understanding of current business trends and help researchers and companies to better direct their research efforts [32]. ...
Fiber-reinforced plastic composite materials are increasingly used in many industrial applications, leading to an increase in the amount of waste that must be treated to avoid environmental problems. Currently, the scientific literature classifies existing recycling technologies into three macro-categories: mechanical, thermal, and chemical; however, none are identified as superior to the others. Therefore, scholars and companies struggle to understand where to focus their efforts. Patent analysis, by relying on quantitative data as a precursor to new technological developments, can contribute to fully grasping current applications of each recycling technology and provide insights about their future development perspectives. Based on these premises, this paper performs a patent technology roadmap to enhance knowledge about prior, current, and future use of the main recycling technologies. The results show that recycling macro-categories have different technology maturity levels and growth potentials. Specifically, mechanical recycling is the most mature, with the lowest growth potential, while thermal and chemical recycling are in their growth stage and present remarkable future opportunities. Moreover, the analysis depicts several perspectives for future development on recycling technologies applications within different industries and underline inter- and intra-category dependencies, thus providing valuable information for practitioners and both academic and non-academic backgrounds researchers interested in the topic.
... This hype phase is followed by commercial adoption failing to meet performance expectations (Dedehayir and Steinert, 2016), leading to a temporarily reduced activity in the area. There are several approaches available to determine the life stages of a technology through the use of patents (Campbell, 1983), (Ernst, 1997). An illustrative TLC, including a hype level, is depicted in Fig. 4, which expresses the theoretical development of patenting activity. ...
Patent documents provide knowledge about which countries are investing in certain technologies and make it possible to identify potential innovation trends. The aim of this article is to analyze trends in patenting that might result in innovations for three energy technologies: thermochemical conversion of biomass (Bioenergy), lithium-ion battery storage, and hydrogen production by alkaline water electrolysis. Based on different patent indicators, the most active countries are compared to provide insights into the global market position of a country, particularly Germany which is used as a reference here. In line with this, a freely available patent analysis software tool was developed directly using the European Patent Office database through their Open Patent Services. The results for named technologies show that patenting activity of Germany is considered lower in comparison to countries such as Japan, China, and the US. Whereas the position of Germany for batteries and hydrogen is comparable, bioenergy shows different results regarding the identified countries and the number of patents found. However, a broader context beyond patenting is suggested for consideration to make robust statements about particular technology trends. The presented tool and methodology in this study can serve as a blueprint for explorative assessments in any technological domain.
... The information of communication functionalities of ICT was archived as raw texts in patent documents [6,7]. Analyzing patent documents effectively is important to acquire technological knowledge, link potential solutions to problems and inspire innovation in the industry [8]. Therefore, exploiting information underlying patent documents has gained increasing interests by researchers, patent analysts, and practitioners [9]. ...
The patents of information and communication technology (ICT) in construction are valuable sources of technological solutions to communication problems in the construction practice. However, it is often difficult for practitioners and stakeholders to identify the key communication functionalities from complicated expressions in the patent documents. Addressing such challenges, this study develops a deep learning model to enable automatic recognition of communication-oriented entities (CEs) from patent documents. The proposed model is structured based on the Transformer, consisting of feed-forward and self-attention neural networks to better recognize ambiguous and unknown entities by utilizing contextual information. The validation results showed that the proposed model has superior performance in CE recognition than traditional recurrent neural networks (RNN)-based models, especially in recognizing ambiguous and unknown entities. Moreover, experimental results on some research literature and a real-life project report showed satisfactory performance of the model in CE recognition across different document types.
... A large amount of patents or publications indicates that there is an optimistic view in terms of economy and technological development as R&D is costly and time intensive (Daim et al. [11]). Campbell [8] highlights the importance of using patent data for technology forecasting as patent data exhibits typical growth patterns for technology markets such as emerging, maturing or declining. Ernst [16] reinforces the usefulness of patent analysis by using Japanese and German patenting activity for forecasting CNC-technologies in the machine tool industry. ...
One of the major limiting factors and criticism about the real options approach is related to issues with estimating the right input values for state variables that are critical to make the right investment decisions under uncertainty. While vast research exists that applies real options valuation to technology investments, scholars often present theoretical findings based on fictional numerical applications neglecting the process of estimating the right input variables for their models. We present a simple framework to obtain these variables for technology investments by analysing publicly available data such as bibliometrics and patents related to any technology and apply it to forecast 3D printing technology diffusion. We base our approach on the Bass model, which is a prominent technique in the area of technology forecasting and show that these methods can help to forecast technology diffusion and obtain the required input parameters for technology investment decisions. We further use our 3D printing example to demonstrate the major differences between the suggested technology diffusion model and a standard Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, as it is often found in Real Options literature. We find that the GBM is often not suitable when analysing technology investments, as it can lead to wrong investment decisions.
... Patent information contain technical research results and economic intelligence that are valuable to an industry. It discloses technical details, reveals technology development trends, and helps with making investment decisions for potential competition (Campbell, 1983). Patent analysis method is a valuable approach to study a specific industry or technology, especially in energy field, such as oil and gas industry (Duch-Brown and Costa-Campi, 2015), wind power technology (Tsai et al., 2016;Schleich et al., 2017) and green technology (Cho and Sohn, 2018). ...
With huge technical potential, Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is widely regarded as an important means of addressing climate change. International technological collaboration on CCS appears particularly crucial to help expedite commercial-scale deployment globally. This study investigates CCS patents and measures technological collaborations among CCS research communities by looking at a global patent cooperation network. Using a social network analysis method, network properties, network actors and cohesive subgroups were examined. The collaborative strength of patentees was also investigated, along with an analysis of the breadth and depth of technological collaboration. The results show that the overall collaboration network of CCS is still at an early stage of development; CCS enterprises and relevant R&D organizations have not established close partnerships. Based on the findings, two suggestions are proposed in order to promote more successful technological collaborations, including the creation of CCS patent pools and the construction of CCS knowledge sharing platforms.
... The amount of patent applications can directly reflect the R&D strength and output level of the innovative subject [2]. Patent analysis is the most accurate method to predict short-and medium-term technological developments [3]. Analysis of patent-related historical information such as regional distribution and field distribution can accurately predict the main competitors, as well as the development of core technologies at various stages [4]. ...
The textile industry of China has been facing with fierce competition and transformational pressures. It is of great significance to study the evolution of textile industry’s technological progress and to predict the trends. The study analyses the technological innovation ability of China’s textile industry based on the data of 270,145 patent applications from 1987 to 2016. At the same time, the Logistic model is used to forecast the technology innovation capability of China’s textile industry. The study found out: the number of Chinese textile patent applications is on a upward trend; enterprises and universities are the most important patentee; the regional distribution of textile technology innovation is uneven; the number of patent applications in the southeast coastal areas is the largest; the distribution of the IPC is also uneven, D06 (fabric treatment) having the largest number of patent applications and the fastest growth rate; China’s textile industry technology innovation has entered a maturity stage in 2018, and will enter the recession stage after 2027 based on the Logistic model.
... The crucial task is how to identify the outliers in the patent corpora. Citations and structured data analysis provide useful indicators of patent activities, such as patent immediacy, dominance, and clustering [11]. These indicators provide a measure of the degree of significance and the level of interest about a technology. ...
Patent analysis is crucial for technology monitoring, forecasting, and assessment, and facilitates entrepreneurs and different stakeholder groups to develop forward-looking technologies and business strategies. However, the speed and scale in the development of disruptive technologies, such as blockchain, present a challenge for analysts and experts. In this article, we propose an unsupervised systematic patent analysis framework that applies a mixture of cosine-based and density-based outlier analysis to the patent space. A sample of 13 393 blockchain-related patents published between January 2014 and June 2020 is used to test the proposed framework. Specifically, this framework merges cosine and density-based outlier detection methodologies to improve the identification of outliers within clusters of patents. The identified outliers are visualized through an age-outlier technology-opportunity analysis map that represents the different levels of novelty existing in each cluster of the patent sample. The map facilitates companies to better target their R&D efforts and maximize the return of technology investments. Benchmark results show that the proposed outlier detection method improves recall, precision, and f1 score. In addition, the results show that the cluster with a higher percentage of outliers represents the Internet of Things applications of blockchain technology.
Technology development is a blend of inheritance and innovation that follows certain rules along a technology trajectory. This trajectory charts a technology's evolution and is among the best-supporting data for decision making. Technology life cycle (TLC) analysis, as one of the foundational topics in the field of technology management field, is of vital importance for describing the evolutionary path of technology. However, most current methods simply rely on static patent indicators, which neglect the dynamic aspects of a technology's development. To overcome this limitation, we propose a framework of diverse characteristics and novel procedures for identifying the entire span of a technology's life cycle from a series of patent citation networks. After retrieving patent data with a well-defined search strategy, a sequence of patent citation networks is constructed year by year. Network attribute indicators are then calculated for each of the networks and used to inform an evolution model, which reveals the TLC. To illustrate the strengths and potential of this approach, we have taken additive manufacturing technology as an example for analysis. Through the framework, we are able to demonstrate the technology at various stages of its maturity and how it has changed over time, along with some areas of competitive advantage and promising future opportunities.
The sustainable development goals (SDGs) are a blueprint for achieving a better and more sustainable future for all by defining priorities and aspirations for 2030. This paper attempts to expand on the United Nations SDGs definition by leveraging the interrelationship between science and technology. We utilize SDG classification of scientific publications to compile a machine learning (ML) model to classify the SDG relevancy in patent documents, used as a proxy of technology development. The ML model was used to classify a sample of patent families registered in the European Patent Office (EPO). The analysis revealed the extent to which SDGs were addressed in patents. We also performed a case study to identify the offered extension of ML model detection regarding the SDG orientation of patents. In response to global goals and sustainable development initiatives, the findings can advance the identification challenges of science and technology artefacts. Furthermore, we offer input towards the alignment of R&D efforts and patenting strategies as well as measurement and management of their contribution to the realization of SDGs.
Tech mining is an analytical method of technology monitoring that can reveal technology trends in different industries. Patent databases are the major sources for information retrieval by tech mining methods. The majority of the commercially viable research and development results in the world can be found in patents. The time and cost of research and development can greatly be reduced if researchers properly analyze patents of prior arts. Appropriate analyses of patents also help firms avoid patent infringement while simultaneously developing new products or services. The main path analysis is a bibliometric method which can be used to derive the most dominant paths in a citation network of patents or academic works and has widely been adopted in tracing the development trajectory of a specific science or technology. Even though main path analysis can derive patent citation relationships and the weight associated with some specific arc of the citation network, the weights associated with patents and influence relationships among patents can hardly be derived based on methods of main path analysis. However, these influence relationships and weight can be crucial for defining research and development and patent aggregation strategies. Thus, the authors want to propose a novel analytic framework which consists of the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), the DEMATEL based Analytic Network Process (DANP) and the main path analysis. The proposed analytic framework can be used to derive the influence relationships and influence weights associated with the patents in a main path. Empirical cases based on the main path of a published work and the patent mining results of nanowire field effect transistors from the database of the United States Patent and Trademark Office will be used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed analytic framework. The analytic results of empirical research can be used as a basis for infringement evaluation, patent designing around and innovation.
Electronics companies are facing global economic and trade competition. As patents can form an endowment shield that protects the development of corporate capabilities, companies are actively increasing their number of patents and attaching importance to technological research and development and patent management to achieve differentiated strategic effects. As such, patent layout and research and development (R&D) investment have become important strategic weapons for Taiwanese manufacturers, with which to enter the international market or compete among enterprises. This study first utilized the principal components analysis method to define patents in terms of the number of patents and the times patents are cited, with R&D defined in terms of expenditure and intensity. Furthermore, this study used a quantile regression model to visualize the relationship between R&D, technological imports, and patent performance in Taiwanese listed electronics companies. The empirical results show that technological imports in the second time-lag period require patents, while the effect on patents varies alongside industry characteristics. In addition, the empirical results found that the total assets, number of employees, and number of patent inventors are also factors that significantly affect patents. This research proposes that Taiwan’s listed electronics companies should expand their scale, increase their economic efficiency, maximize their resources, increase their patents, enhance their corporate value, boost their investor confidence, and improve their industry competitiveness.
The work is framed within Printed Electronics, an emerging technology for the manufacture of electronic products. Among the different printing methods, the roll-to-roll flexography technique is used because it allows continuous manufacturing and high productivity at low cost. Apart from the process parameters, the ink and the substrate properties are some of the variables associated with the flexographic printing. Specifically, this study investigates the ink penetration, the print uniformity, the adhesion, the fastness, and the electrical behaviour of the same conductive silver ink printed on different flexible substrates through the flexography process. In addition to polymeric and siliconized paper substrates, which are typical used in printed electronics, two substrates were also chosen for the study: woven and nonwoven fabric. Optical, scanning electronic microscope (SEM), 4-point Kelvin and colour fastness to wash and rubbing analyses have been performed. The results concluded that, regarding the conductivity behaviour, porous substrates like textiles and nonwoven fabrics without pre and post treatments do not present acceptable results, whereas polymers or silicone papers do. Nevertheless, woven and nonwoven fabrics are a suitable early option regarding colour fastness to wash instead of thin polymeric and paper substrates that tear at the wash machine. A solution for an optimal printing on textiles would be the surface substrates pre-treatment by applying different chemical compounds that increase the adhesion of the ink on the fabric
World Patent Information (WPI) is the leading international academic peer reviewed journal in the field of patent information. The journal was launched in 1979 and celebrated its 40th anniversary in 2019. In recognition of this event, the aim of this work is to analyse the main actors, research themes and audiences of WPI. The analyses are based on the Scopus and Web of Science databases and include bibliographic coupling, co-citation and co-occurrence of author keywords. WPI is a boundary-spanning journal with authors from academia, industry and governmental organisations, such as patent authorities. This unique composition provides a prominent platform for knowledge transfer between academia and industry. In addition, WPI facilitates knowledge transfer between academia and industry, with research institutions citing contributions from authors affiliated to industry and patent offices. Furthermore, WPI not only crosses the boundaries between organisations (academia, industry and government), but also across disciplines, linking IP management, technology and innovation management, engineering, computer sciences, physical and natural sciences.
3D printing is the important part of the emerging industry, and the accurate prediction of technology hot spots (THS) in the 3D printing industry is crucial for the strategic technology planning. The patents of the THS are always in the minority and have outlier characteristics, so the existing single and rigid models cannot accurately and robustly predict the THS. In order to make up for the shortcomings of the existing research, this study proposes a model for robust composite attraction indicator (MRCAI), which avoids the impact of outlier patents on prediction accuracy depending on not only extracting the patent attraction indicators (AIs) but also constructing the robust composite attraction indicator (CAI) according to the rough consensus of predicted results of CAIs with high generalization. Specifically, firstly, this study selects the patent AIs from the four dimensions of the attraction: technology group attraction, state attraction, enterprise attraction and inventor attraction. Secondly, in order to completely describe the attraction features of patent, AIs are directly and indirectly integrated into CAIs. Thirdly, we reduce the influence of outlier patents on prediction accuracy from two aspects: on the one hand, we initially select the CAIs with good generalization performance based on the prediction error fluctuation range. On the other hand, we build the robust CAIs by calculating the consensus of CAIs with high generalization performance based on the rough set. Fourthly, the 3D printing industry technology attention matrix is constructed to map the effective technology strategic planning based on predicted patent backward citation count by MRCAI in the short, medium and long term. Finally, the experimental results on 3D printing patent data show that MRCAI can effectively improve the efficiency in dealing with samples with outlier patents and has strong flexibility and robustness in predicting the THS in 3D printing industry.
In this work, to identify promising areas for the development of electronic systems using reflection or secondary radiation of acoustic waves, a patent analysis method is used based on the formation of time series of US patents and comparison between different technical solutions for the number of patents registered in specific subgroups of the International Patent Classification (IPC), and the dynamics of their issuance in the interval 2010–2019. The use of the IPC allows an effective search and classification of any technical solution, a retrospective analysis, as well as the formation of predictive assessments of the development of technologies, involving open resources of various patent offices. As a result of the study, data were obtained that suggest that all systems using the reflection of acoustic waves have been successfully developing for the past ten years. The most promising among them are systems using reflection of acoustic waves and systems specially designed for special applications. Among systems with reflection of acoustic waves, the most promising systems are systems for determining the location of a target by measuring only range using transmissions of intermittent pulse-modulated signals.
In diesem Kapitel geht es um das „Wie?“. Hier werden die Methoden beschrieben, mit denen wir Fähigkeiten kontinuierlich aufbauen und Optionen schnell realisieren. Ausdauer und Flexibilität kommen nicht von alleine. Der Änderungsprozess hat mentale, soziale und formale Aspekte. Wir suchen daher Antworten auf folgende Fragen:
In this work, I examine the potential of social epistemology to serve as a foundation for foresight. I firstly describe the history of ideas that led to foresight and clarify the specific characteristics of foresight in contrast to other futures research activities. To develop an epistemological classification of foresight, or rather to show the impossibility of such a classification, I sketch the development of main strands of philosophy of science and the most prominent approaches of futures research and foresight theory. I argue that foresight is best grasped on the basis of socio-epistemic approaches that recognize the importance of values in science. On this basis I propose a socio-epistemic foresight framework that includes rules for scientific criticism, operates in close connection with scientific practice, and accommodates both the role of values and forms of objectivity. The work shows that Longino’s claim that “science is social knowledge” (Longino 1990) can be adapted to foresight as “foresight is science as social knowledge”.
https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000084920
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