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The foreign trade pattern and foreign trade specialization of candidates of the European Union
Abstract and Figures
The enlargement of the European Union will bring many political, economical and structural changes on the Continent, which require careful and deep analysis to be made. This paper will grasp the enlargement of the European Union from the aspect of the trade pattern and trade specialization of six major European Union candidates; namely, Turkey, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Poland and the Czech Republic by focusing on the years from 1996 to 2002. In other words, the main purpose of this paper is to examine the international competitiveness of six candidate countries and to compare the structure of specialization in foreign trade with each other and the EU/15.
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... Ba1assa's RCA index has been used in the following studies; Lafay (1992), Lee (1995), Rodas-Martini (1998), Yue and Hua (2002), Wu and Chen (2004). 8 For recent studies, see Kucukahmetog1u (1996), Akgungor et al. (2002), Karakaya and Ozgen (2002), Yilmaz (2002;2003), Yilmaz and Ergun (2003), Ferman et al. (2004). 9 See Appendix Table 1 for SITC categorization of goods given by Hufbauer and Chilas (1974). ...
... Ba1assa's RCA index has been used in the following studies; Lafay (1992), Lee (1995), Rodas-Martini (1998), Yue and Hua (2002), Wu and Chen (2004). 8 For recent studies, see Kucukahmetog1u (1996), Akgungor et al. (2002), Karakaya and Ozgen (2002), Yilmaz (2002;2003), Yilmaz and Ergun (2003), Ferman et al. (2004). 9 See Appendix Table 1 for SITC categorization of goods given by Hufbauer and Chilas (1974). ...
... Karaalp (2011) examined the comparative advantages between Turkey and the Commonwealth of Independent States by considering 16 different goods groups. Yılmaz and Ergun (2003) investigated the international competitiveness of 6 EU candidate countries which Turkey, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Czech Republic. The results obtained from the study, in which 6 different index numbers were calculated, show that there are significant differences between candidate countries and EU countries. ...
Abstract
Globalization increased the importance of export competitiveness. The Balassa index (1965) tries to identify whether a country possesses a ‘revealed’ comparative advantage through analyzing relative export performance, instead of determining the underlying other sources of comparative advantage. Against the criticism for static RCA for failure to capture the changing competitiveness over time, Edwards and Schoer (2002) developed the dynamic RCA index to analyze the changing structure of a country’s trade relative to world market over time. In this study, national static and dynamic indexes according to ISIC Rev.(3) sectors were calculated for 2011-2015 periods for Turkey. Then, province based dynamic export performance has been calculated for ISIC Rev. (3) for the sectors above unity at national level for the periods for both 2011-2012 and 2017-2018. The results show that 15 sectors have over unity static RCA scores for whole 2001-2015 period which are: 1, 5, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21, 25, 26, 27, 28, 34, 36, 37. However dynamic RCA shows that while world trade volume are increasing, Turkey’s export share is decreasing at a national level for these sectors. According to dynamic RCA results just 4 sectors; 5, 18, 21, 36 and 37; are in rising star category for the consecutive period for both 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Province based results show that both statistically and dynamically competitive sectors are 5, 18, 21, 36, 37 and just dynamically sectors are 19 and 24.
Öz
Küreselleşme, ihracatta rekabet gücünün önemini arttırmıştır. Balassa indeksi (1965) karşılaştırmalı üstünlüğü yaratan sebepleri inceleme konusu yapmadan ülkelerin ihracat performanslarını analiz ederek karşılaştırmalı üstünlüğe sahip olup olmadıklarını belirlemeye çalışmaktadır. Edwards ve Schoer (2002) bir ülkenin ticaretini zaman içinde dünya pazarına göre değişen yapısını analiz ederek dinamik RCA indeksini geliştirmişlerdir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin statik ve dinamik RCA indeksleri ISIC Rev. 3 sektör sınıflandırmasına göre 2011-2015 dönemi için hesaplanmıştır. Daha sonra illerin dinamik ihracat performansları 2011-2012 ve 217-2018 dönemleri için hesaplanmıştır. Sonuçlar, Türkiye'nin 15 sektörde 1'den büyük statik RCA indeks değerine sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sektörler, 1, 5, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21, 25, 26, 27, 28, 34, 36 ve 37'dir. Diğer yandan Dinamik RCA sonuçları bu sektörlerde dünya ticaret hacmi genişlerken Türkiye'nin ihracat payının azaldığını göstermketedir. Dinamik RCA sonuçları sadece 4 sektörün (5, 8, 21, 36) hem 2013-2014 hem de 2014-2015 dönemlerinde rising star kategorisinde yer aldığını göstermektedir. İl düzeyinde yapılan analiz sonuçlarına göre 5, 18, 21, 36-37 nolu sektörler hem statik hem de dinamik rekabetçi yapıya sahip iken 19 ve 24 nolu sektörler ise dinamik rekabetçi yapıya sahiplerdir.
... According to the product classification by factor intensiveness, created byYilmaz (2003). ...
The paper is aimed at identifying characteristics of trade relations of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) with the Republic of Slovenia (Slovenia) in order to contribute to determining the position of BiH in its bilateral trade. The foreign trade analysis has been performed in the context of the changing trade regime between the two countries, thereby including both institutional and functional aspects of bilateral trade relations development. Different trade indicators have been calculated and interpreted for the period of 2003-2017 and/or for selected years which were identified by a change in the institutional regulations of mutual trade flows. The research results indicate increasing trade intensity between the two countries, with almost balanced export and import flows and with prevailing inter-industry trade. The trade performance of BiH has significantly improved, with increasing intra-industry specialization and trade. However, the export structure and comparative advantage pattern are not favourable toward BiH, which points to the need for improving the country’s position in its trade with Slovenia.
In this study, it is aimed to determine the comparative advantages of 15 countries, which are party to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement as a new economic entity in the Asia-Pacific region, in exports on the basis of standard product groups. To do so, calculations were made with the Balassa Index to measure the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) between 2011 and 2020. The products exported by the countries are divided into 13 standard product groups in total according to their factor intensities in production (low, medium, high technology; labour, raw materials, capital intensive; easy-to-imitate and hard-to-imitate, minerals and metals, mineral fuels, agricultural products, textiles, manufacturing). and RCA coefficients are determined for each group separately. According to the findings, RCEP countries (9 countries) are mostly specialised in agricultural product groups. This sector is followed by the manufacturing industry (8 countries) and raw material-intensive goods (7 countries). In the easy-to-imitate and hard-to-imitate groups where research-based goods are included, 7 countries, and in the high technology group, 6 countries have specialised and achieved a comparative advantage in exports. In these research-based groups, especially China, Vietnam, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore and Japan are advantageous.
This research conducted a structural and analysis of the foreign trade position of the Republic of Serbia, with special emphasis on agricultural and food products, in order to provide detailed information regarding current trends, measuring the level of comparative advantage and international position in the world and European markets. The obtained results indicate the elements that have a limiting effect on the development of this type of production. Using the RCA Index methodology and the Lafay's Index, the link between the food industry and the character of industrial exchange was established, which is measured by the Grubel Lloyd's Index. The structure of exports was analyzed from the aspect of factor intensity, so the existence of negative values of a comparative advantage and intensive goods was confirmed. Finally, we believe that the results obtained have contributed to the unraveling of available instruments, the eventual efficient use of which would help rural development, and thus the overall economic development of the Republic of Serbia.
This study focuses on the sectoral structure of exports of Russian regions and its dynamics. We also explore the reasons for similarities in export portfolios of regions. Despite the differences in geography, climate and capital availability, Russian regions have more similarities than differences in terms of their export baskets. This conclusion is valid for the six economic sectors we examined based on observations from 1998 to 2018. This paper aims to clarify the nature of the relationship between the structure of exports and knowledge diffusion. Our main hypothesis is that knowledge diffusion has a positive impact on the similarity of exports in Russian regions. Using econometric tools, we bring to light the following patterns: first, knowledge diffusion has a positive effect on similarity of regional exports; second, an increase in the distance between Russian regions leads to a decrease in the similarity of their export baskets, while the presence of a common border leads to the opposite; and finally, a growing difference in socio-economic indicators leads to a decrease in the similarity of regions’ export baskets. The research findings could be used to design strategies for development of regional exports.
Purpose: This study investigates the comparative advantage of Ready-made Garment (RMG) industry of Bangladesh compared to other major Asian competitors in the global market such as China, Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Sri Lanka and Turkey from 2013 to 2017.
Methodology: This study applies Balassa‟s Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) with data from World Trade Organization (WTO) database during the stated period of 2013 to 2017 to calculate the RCA index of competing economies in global clothing export. Additionally, correlation-coefficient of the clothing export of competing economies for the study period has been calculated to analyze the export pattern. Moreover, the consistency and volatility of comparative advantage measured by standard deviation and coefficient of variance of the RCA have been analyzed.
Findings: All seven competing economies display some degree of comparative advantage, the strongest display of RCA score comes from Bangladesh, followed by Cambodia. The findings exhibited that Bangladesh‟s export pattern is highly non diversified to single industry compared to other Asian economies. It is also depicted that Bangladesh has been unsuccessful in grabbing the growth in global clothing export compared to Vietnam. There has been a strong negative correlation that exists between the clothing export of Bangladesh and China whereas strong correlation persists between Bangladesh and Vietnam. It has been also identified that although Bangladesh has the highest RCA among other considered economies, the volatility remains on the higher side. Limitations: This research study has only focused on five countries trade variables. Time period of analysis of the data could also be extended.
Practical Implications: The outcomes of the analysis would be helpful in formulating export policies and identifying factors of competitiveness for selecting strategic business and industrial policy for future growth.
Originality/Value: This paper is one of the limited attempts to perform a structured investigation of competitiveness of Bangladesh and its Major Asian Competitor on clothing (RMG) trade to international markets as very limited previous studies have been conducted in this area.
The relationships among input, production and market suddenly broke down after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The reflections of this disintegration are deeply felt in the Central Asian and in the Caucasian economies, which lack the traditions of being a government. The imbalances in the supply and demand, such as shutting down of factories due to breakdown of production relations and the resulting severe rise in the unemployment rate, caused a transition recession. As well-known in the literature, the main reason behind this is the interdependency of the production structures in these newly independent former Soviet countries. Large industrial establishments were left alone due to lack of sufficient raw materials and other inputs, due to lack of new technologies, and/or due to political void resulting from the transition period. In the newly established economic and political system, all of these countries, namely Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, try to realize their economic growth and development by specializing in the production of goods in which they have an economic advantage in terms of competitiveness. In this study, the effects of competitiveness on economic growth is investigated for these 7 countries during the 1995-2010 period using panel data analysis based on the Lafay index. In the light of the results of this research, policy recommendations are attempted in order to determine the sectors in which these countries are more competitive and hence to suggest ways of increasing their economic growth rate.
The analysis of Baltic regional trade patterns reveals that during the nineties the Baltic states made significant progress to integrate into the Western European division of labour although a significant share of (transit) trade with Russia remained. In view of this development, history seems to matter with respect to the interwar period and the period of Soviet occupation. In addition, a trade entropy analysis and gravity model estimates show that European integration of the Baltic states has a regional centre of gravity located in the Baltic Sea region. The Baltic trade flows increasingly follow the gravitational forces that generally shape trade relations, while regional integration is still much more important than it is normally the case.
This paper examines the structure and specialization and international competitiveness of Turkish industry compared to the EU/12/15 and to the European-Mediterranean members Greece, Portugal, and Spain. This research work evaluated Turkey's ability to overcome difficulties and challenges that may arise from the hard competition with the European Union.
In this paper we focus on cycles and trends of some macroeconomic and housing market variables representative of the French economy. In a first part, we empirically show that cycles in the housing sector, measured by housing prices, housing starts, building permits, sales or residential investment, are strongly correlated to GDP cycles with a lead lying between of one and four quarters, suggesting thus that a monitoring of housing fluctuations could bring useful information for macroeconomic forecasting. Interestingly, this result is robust to the various considered approaches. Moreover, it seems that the housing sector long-term trend possesses its own dynamics, quite different from the global French economic activity. Thus, in a second part, we review various structural factors that could drive housing market developments in France in the future.
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