Hidden Drug Resistant HIV to Emerge in the Era of Universal Treatment Access in Southeast Asia

National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
PLoS ONE (Impact Factor: 3.23). 06/2010; 5(6):e10981. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0010981
Source: PubMed


Universal access to first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection is becoming more of a reality in most low and middle income countries in Asia. However, second-line therapies are relatively scarce.
We developed a mathematical model of an HIV epidemic in a Southeast Asian setting and used it to forecast the impact of treatment plans, without second-line options, on the potential degree of acquisition and transmission of drug resistant HIV strains. We show that after 10 years of universal treatment access, up to 20% of treatment-naïve individuals with HIV may have drug-resistant strains but it depends on the relative fitness of viral strains.
If viral load testing of people on ART is carried out on a yearly basis and virological failure leads to effective second-line therapy, then transmitted drug resistance could be reduced by 80%. Greater efforts are required for minimizing first-line failure, to detect virological failure earlier, and to procure access to second-line therapies.

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    • "Of the small number of population PrEP models that include drug resistance, only one has considered reversion of resistance by assuming that resistance and reversion occur at fixed rates for the treated and post-treated subpopulations, respectively [10,11]. Recent models of combination ART that account for resistance and reversion treat these similarly [12,13]; though one model used stochastic numerical methods as a proxy for variability in acquisition and transmission of resistance, these are still assumed to occur at a fixed rate [13] with no consideration for heterogeneous host biology and behavior. "
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    ABSTRACT: Background Population transmission models of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use simplistic assumptions – typically constant, homogeneous rates – to represent the short-term risk and long-term effects of drug resistance. In contrast, within-host models of drug resistance allow for more detailed dynamics of host immunity, latent reservoirs of virus, and drug PK/PD. Bridging these two levels of modeling detail requires an understanding of the “levers” – model parameters or combinations thereof – that change only one independent observable at a time. Using the example of accidental tenofovir-based pre-exposure prophyaxis (PrEP) use during HIV infection, we will explore methods of implementing host heterogeneities and their long-term effects on drug resistance. Results We combined and extended existing models of virus dynamics by incorporating pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and adherence behavior. We identified two “levers” associated with the host immune pressure against the virus, which can be used to independently modify the setpoint viral load and the shape of the acute phase viral load peak. We propose parameter relationships that can explain differences in acute and setpoint viral load among hosts, and demonstrate their influence on the rates of emergence and reversion of drug resistance. The importance of these dynamics is illustrated by modeling long-lived latent reservoirs of virus, through which past intervals of drug resistance can lead to failure of suppressive drug regimens. Finally, we analyze assumptions about temporal patterns of drug adherence and their impact on resistance dynamics, finding that with the same overall level of adherence, the dwell times in drug-adherent versus not-adherent states can alter the levels of drug-resistant virus incorporated into latent reservoirs. Conclusions We have shown how a diverse range of observable viral load trajectories can be produced from a basic model of virus dynamics using immunity-related “levers”. Immune pressure, in turn, influences the dynamics of drug resistance, with increased immune activity delaying drug resistance and driving more rapid return to dominance of drug-susceptible virus after drug cessation. Both immune pressure and patterns of drug adherence influence the long-term risk of drug resistance. In the case of accidental PrEP use during infection, rapid transitions between adherence states and/or weak immunity fortifies the “memory” of previous PrEP exposure, increasing the risk of future drug resistance. This model framework provides a means for analyzing individual-level risks of drug resistance and implementing heterogeneities among hosts, thereby achieving a crucial prerequisite for improving population-level models of drug resistance.
    Full-text · Article · Feb 2013 · BMC Systems Biology
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    • "In microbicides it is preferable to avoid first line anti-HIV agents that are used to treat HIV-infected people, or agents with the potential to induce class- or cross-resistance to them [9], [10]. There was no evidence of tenofovir resistance in those individuals who became infected in the CAPRISA 004 trial [8]. "
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    ABSTRACT: Repeated use, coitus-independent microbicide gels that do not contain antiretroviral agents also used as first line HIV therapy are urgently needed to curb HIV spread. Current formulations require high doses (millimolar range) of antiretroviral drugs and typically only provide short-term protection in macaques. We used the macaque model to test the efficacy of a novel combination microbicide gel containing zinc acetate and micromolar doses of the novel non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor MIV-150 for up to 24 h after repeated gel application. Rhesus macaques were vaginally challenged with SHIV-RT up to 24 h after repeated administration of microbicide versus placebo gels. Infection status was determined by measuring virologic and immunologic parameters. Combination microbicide gels containing 14 mM zinc acetate dihydrate and 50 µM MIV-150 afforded full protection (21 of 21 animals) for up to 24 h after 2 weeks of daily application. Partial protection was achieved with the MIV-150 gel (56% of control at 8 h after last application, 11% at 24 h), while the zinc acetate gel afforded more pronounced protection (67% at 8-24 h). Marked protection persisted when the zinc acetate or MIV-150/zinc acetate gels were applied every other day for 4 weeks prior to challenge 24 h after the last gel was administered (11 of 14 protected). More MIV-150 was associated with cervical tissue 8 h after daily dosing of MIV-150/zinc acetate versus MIV-150, while comparable MIV-150 levels were associated with vaginal tissues and at 24 h. A combination MIV-150/zinc acetate gel and a zinc acetate gel provide significant protection against SHIV-RT infection for up to 24 h. This represents a novel advancement, identifying microbicides that do not contain anti-viral agents used to treat HIV infection and which can be used repeatedly and independently of coitus, and underscores the need for future clinical testing of their safety and ability to prevent HIV transmission in humans.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2011 · PLoS ONE
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