Article

What effect will a few degrees of climate change have on human heat balance? Implications for human activity

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Abstract

While many factors affecting human health that will alter with climate change are being discussed, there has been no discussion about how a warmer future will affect man's thermoregulation. Using historical climate data for an Australian city and projections for Australia's climate in 2070, we address the issue using heat balance modelling for humans engaged in various levels of activity from rest to manual labour. We first validate two heat balance models against empirical data and then use the models to predict the number of days at present and in 2070 that (1) sweating will be required to attain heat balance, (2) heat balance will not be possible and hyperthermia will develop, and (3) body temperature will increase by 2.5°C in less than 2 h, which we term "dangerous days". The modelling is applied to people in an unacclimatised and an acclimatised state. The modelling shows that, for unacclimatised people, outdoor activity will not be possible on 33-45 days per year, compared to 4-6 days per year at present. For acclimatised people the situation is less dire but leisure activity like golf will be not be possible on 5-14 days per year compared to 1 day in 5 years at present, and manual labour will be dangerous to perform on 15-26 days per year compared to 1 day per year at present. It is obvious that climate change will have important consequences for leisure, economic activity, and health in Australia.

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... Of these, 27 articles were excluded-15 articles did not project the impact of climate change on future PA patterns, five reported no PA-related outcome, six were commentaries instead of original studies, and the remaining one was not written in English. Therefore, a total of ten articles met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]. Table 1 summarizes the characteristics of the ten studies included in the review. ...
... The sample sizes were generally large but varied substantially across studies. Two studies analyzed 27-37 million bicycle trips [25,26], two analyzed 16,383 all-mode trips [17], and 651,485 bicycle trips [21], three included 40,000-1,941,429 respondents [19,22,24], and the sample sizes of the remaining three studies were not reported [18,20,23]. Three studies focused on individuals aged 18 years and older [20,24,25], one on individuals aged 15 years and older [22], one on individuals aged 13 years and older [17], and one on individuals aged 11 years and older [19]. ...
... Three studies focused on individuals aged 18 years and older [20,24,25], one on individuals aged 15 years and older [22], one on individuals aged 13 years and older [17], and one on individuals aged 11 years and older [19]. Nine studies analyzed all four seasons [17,18,[20][21][22][23][24][25][26], whereas one exclusively focused on fall and spring [19]. Table 2 summarizes data sources and detailed measures for climate change and PA. ...
Article
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Purpose of Review This study systematically identified and synthesized empirical data-driven modeling studies that projected the future influence of global warming on people’s physical activity patterns. Recent Findings A total of ten studies met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Global warming, in general, was predicted to be associated with a net increase in active commuting and leisure-time physical activity. However, the specific relationship between climate change and future physical activity patterns was expected to vary by the periods of prediction, geographical locations, population subgroups, and seasons. Moreover, the positive association between global warming and physical activity could level off or be reversed once reaching a temperature threshold. Summary Preliminary evidence suggested a net increase in physical activity by mid- to late-twenty-first century owing to global warming. Future studies should refine the projections by taking into account the indirect effect of global warming through induced natural and human events, and assess effective countermeasures to mitigate the negative impact of global warming on vulnerable population subgroups.
... Climate change mitigation and adaptation, however, presents 'the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century' (16  climate change has a substantial impact on people's health worldwide, and is affecting the health today  delayed response to climate change over the past 25 years has jeopardised life and livelihoods  health professions play an essential role in driving forward action and realising the health benefits of climate action  there are new opportunities to protect and promote health through climate action, if we act now (17). ...
... Hotter temperatures place outdoor and manual labourers at increased risk of heat-related illnesses, work accidents and death, while the increased incidence of extreme weather events increases occupational risks for emergency services (15,16,17). Heat stress in the workplace resulting in reduced productivity and absenteeism is estimated to cost the Australian economy $6.2 billion per annum (27). ...
... Vulnerable populations will suffer disproportionate adverse health impacts of climate change, with people with preexisting medical conditions, older people, young, disabled, socio-economically disadvantaged, isolated and Indigenous Australians identified as being particularly vulnerable (1,4,8,9,16,19,24,25). ...
Technical Report
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The Queensland Government committed to implementing the Queensland Climate Adaptation Strategy (Q-CAS) in 2017. This Human Health and Wellbeing Climate Change Adaptation Plan (H-CAP) was developed as a component of the Q-CAS. The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) and the Climate and Health Alliance (CAHA) worked with key stakeholders in the health and wellbeing sector in Queensland to develop the H-CAP. The goal of the H-CAP is to support human health and wellbeing services to be innovative and resilient in managing the risks associated with a changing climate, and to harness the opportunities provided by responding to the challenges of climate change. It provides a preliminary climate change adaptation framework and guidance for stakeholders across health care, aged care, and childcare services. This document outlines the process to develop the H-CAP and describes its scope. It provides an overview of existing policy, and outlines policy drivers and enablers, and case studies to inspire action. It also summarises the concerns of stakeholders in Queensland about the health impacts of climate change, in addition to the barriers, opportunities and pathways forward they saw for climate adaptation. The consultation revealed concerns among stakeholders that are consistent with multiple lines of evidence: there is a policy gap in relation to addressing the health impacts of climate change.
... As the preceding discussion has indicated, the potential climate change-related population-level health impacts of occupational heat stress on working people are now being recognized (18,37,38,41,53). The recent IPCC assessment of human health effects (75) highlighted this issue, but no quantitative analysis was included. ...
... An analysis from Perth, Australia (53), based on projections of Australia's climate through 2070, explored the likely physiological effects of heat exposure in association with intense physical activity (including work) on human performance. Results indicated that whereas an average person, acclimatized to heat, could safely carry out physical activity or manual labor outdoors during all but one day per year in the 1990s, climate change would increase the number of days with dangerous heat exposure to 15-26 days per year by the 2070s (53). ...
Article
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Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30–40% of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20% by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change–related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed.
... Heat events, as well as socioeconomic vulnerability, led to more than 14,800 mortalities in France due to dehydration, hyperthermia, and heat stroke [3]. Heat waves with urban heat islands can increase the death ratio, particularly for vulnerable people such as outdoor workers and elders who are socially isolated and/or with pre-existing disease [4,5]. Other influencing factors include urbanization, poverty, literacy rate, and possibly air pollution [6,7]. ...
... Satellite data can be used to derive the surface temperature using high-spatial-resolution imagery and remote sensing techniques to study the effect of heat over a large area. Therefore, we used Landsat 8 multispectral satellite images to obtain high-resolution LST, NDVI, and NDWI data using Equations (1)(2)(3)(4). The mean LST values at the pixel level show that Amiens experienced high LST on 27 July 2018, 25 July 2019, and 31 July 2020. ...
Article
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Urbanization, anthropogenic activities, and social determinants such as poverty and literacy rate greatly contribute to heat-related mortalities. The 2003 strong heat wave (Lucifer) in France resulted in catastrophic health consequences in the region that may be attributed to urbanization and other anthropogenic activities. Amiens is a medium-sized French city, where the average temperature has increased since the year 2000. In this study, we evaluated the Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) in Amiens for extreme heat days recorded during three years (2018–2020). We used the principal component analysis (PCA) technique for fine-scale vulnerability mapping. The main types of considered data included (a) socioeconomic and demographic data, (b) air pollution, (c) land use and cover, (d) elderly heat illness, (e) social vulnerability, and (f) remote sensing data (land surface temperature (LST), mean elevation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and normalized difference water index (NDWI)). The output maps identified the hot zones through comprehensive GIS analysis. The resultant maps showed that high HVI exists in three typical areas: (1) areas with dense population and low vegetation, (2) areas with artificial surfaces (built-up areas), and (3) industrial zones. Low-HVI areas are in natural landscapes such as rivers and grasslands. Our analysis can be implemented in other cities to highlight areas at high risk of extreme heat and air pollution.
... Evidence shows that Australia would be at moderate to high risk of occupational heat strain for outdoor workers if temperatures increase by 3°C [14]. Dangerous days (days when there is a 2.5°C increase in body temperature in less than 2 hours) for Australian outdoor workers may increase to [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27] days per year by 2070 compared with 1 day per year at present [15]. Several heat-related deaths have recently been reported in Australian workplaces [16][17][18], raising increased concerns over workplace heat exposure. ...
... Evidence shows that Australia would be at moderate to high risk of occupational heat strain for outdoor workers if temperatures increase by 3°C [14]. Dangerous days (days when there is a 2.5°C increase in body temperature in less than 2 hours) for Australian outdoor workers may increase to [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27] days per year by 2070 compared with 1 day per year at present [15]. Several heat-related deaths have recently been reported in Australian workplaces [16][17][18], raising increased concerns over workplace heat exposure. ...
Article
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Background Occupational exposure to extreme heat without sufficient protection may not only increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and injuries but also compromise economic productivity. With predictions of more frequent and intense bouts of hot weather, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers’ health and safety. This study aims to investigate workers’ perceptions and behavioural responses towards extreme heat exposure in a warming climate. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in 2012 in South Australia among selected outdoor industries. Workers’ heat risk perceptions were measured in the following five aspects: concerns about heat exposure, attitudes towards more training, policy and guideline support, the adjustment of work habits, and degree of satisfaction of current preventive measures. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors significantly associated with workers’ heat perceptions. Results A total of 749 respondents participated in this survey, with a response rate of 50.9 %. A little more than half (51.2 %) of respondents were moderately or very much concerned about workplace heat exposure. Factors associated with workers’ heat concerns included age, undertaking very physically demanding work, and the use of personal protective equipment, heat illness history, and injury experience during hot weather. Less than half (43.4 %) of the respondents had received heat-related training. Workers aged 25–54 years and those with previous heat-related illness/injury history showed more supportive attitudes towards heat-related training. The provision of cool drinking water was the most common heat prevention measure. A little more than half (51.4 %) of respondents were satisfied with the current heat prevention measures. About two-thirds (63.8 %) of respondents agreed that there should be more heat-related regulations and guidelines for working during very hot weather. More than two-thirds (68.8 %) of the respondents were willing to adjust their current work habits to adapt to the likely increasing extreme heat, especially those with previous heat illness experience. Conclusions The findings suggest a need to strengthen workers’ heat risk awareness and refine current heat prevention strategies in a warming climate. Further heat educational programmes and training should focus on those undertaking physically demanding work outdoors, in particular young workers and those over 55 years with low education levels. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3241-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
... Some studies have highlighted that in temperate climate regions, climate change (e.g., increase in temperatures) might positively impact physical activity behaviors (e.g., active travel) [17]. Conversely, climate change impacts such as heat waves and natural disasters are related to lower physical activity participation, decreased sport participation and limited sport performance in subtropical regions [18,19]. On the other hand, some researchers have argued that physical activity behaviors could play a major role in adaptation and mitigation strategies [20]. ...
... Maloney and Forbes [18] modeled the ability of the human body to transfer heat to the environment under projected future meteorological conditions. They established the yearly number of days between 2001 and 2070 on which Perth (Australia) residents will become either hyperthermic (i.e., failed heat balance resulting in hyperthermia) or living in "dangerous days" (i.e., body temperature increase > 2.5 °C in less than 2 h) in the context of moderate or vigorous physical activities. ...
Preprint
POST PRINT : https://avuer.hypotheses.org/files/2021/05/Bernard-2021-Climate-change-physical-activity-and-sport-a-systematic-review.pdf The climate change manifestations are associated with dramatic consequences for human health and threat physical activity behaviors.Objective The aims of this systematic review were to present the potential bidirectional associations between climate change consequences and physical activity (PA) behaviors in human and to propose the first synthesis of the literature through a conceptual model of climate change and PA. Methods Studies published before October 2019, were identified through database searches in Pubmed, PsycArticles, CINAHL, SportDiscus, GreenFILE and GeoRef. Studies examining the associations between PA domains and climate change (e.g., natural disaster, air pollution, carbon footprint) were included.ResultsA narrative synthesis was performed and the 63 identified articles were classified into 6 topics: air pollution and PA, extreme weather conditions and PA, greenhouse gas emissions and PA, carbon footprint among sport participants, natural disasters and PA and the future of PA and sport practices in a changing world. Then, a conceptual model was proposed to identify the multidimensional associations between climate change and PA as well as sport practices. The results indicated a consistent negative effect of air pollution, extreme temperatures and natural disasters on PA levels. This PA reduction will be more severe in adults with chronic diseases, higher body mass index and elderly. The sport and PA communities can play an important mitigation role in post-natural disaster contexts. However, transport related to sport practices are also a source of greenhouse gas emissions.Conclusion The climate change consequences increasingly and disproportionately impact PA at worldwide scale. PA has two concurrent mitigation and amplification roles towards climate changes.
... Sustained periods of higher temperatures-referred to as heatwaves-result in heat stress, which the body reacts to by acclimatising. During this process, plasma volume increases, perspiration rate quickens, and sweat production kicks in earlier [8]. If the high outdoor temperature is accompanied by high levels of humidity, sweat output and therefore also the body's ability to regulate its temperature are particularly at risk [8,9]. ...
... During this process, plasma volume increases, perspiration rate quickens, and sweat production kicks in earlier [8]. If the high outdoor temperature is accompanied by high levels of humidity, sweat output and therefore also the body's ability to regulate its temperature are particularly at risk [8,9]. This can then rapidly escalate to an acute emergency situation [9]. ...
Article
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Climate change is linked to health risks for both professional and amateur athletes. Sports organisations will need to react to these developments. The starting point for this concept paper is a summary of the sport-specific health risks currently under discussion: increasing heatwaves, growing numbers of extreme weather events, rising UV, ozone and allergen levels and the spread of infectious diseases. Based on the current state of research, a conceptual model is developed to reduce these climate-related health risks in sports at organisational level. Given the wide variety of predicted direct and indirect health risks linked to climate change, the “sports, clubs and climate change model” (SC3 model) presented here follows a stepwise risk-specific approach using technical, organisational and person-related measures. The SC3 model also includes cross-cutting measures that have an overarching effect comprising training, warning systems, coordination and evaluation measures. The SC3 model makes it possible to develop prevention plans, both at national level for central associations and at the regional level of local organisations and clubs. It can be applied to typical settings (e.g., training or competition at elite or amateur levels) and target groups (e.g., athletes, spectators, referees and club officials).
... football, rugby, hockey, athletics, tennis), but also those who exercise indoors if they have to train in insufficiently air-conditioned, overheated sports halls and gyms. The human body acclimatizes to this type of thermophysiological stress by increasing plasma volume and sweat rate and starting to produce sweat earlier (Maloney & Forbes, 2011). However, such an acclimatization process takes longer than the (currently typical) duration of most local heatwaves. ...
... Even if body core temperature is not directly dependent upon ambient temperature, thermoregulation is compromised when exposed to great physical stress combined with high outdoor temperature and air humidity (Brotherhood, 2008;Hanna et al., 2011). High levels of air humidity impede perspiration, thus causing heat to remain in the body and increasing core body temperature (Maloney & Forbes, 2011). Well-trained athletes have an individual tolerance to increases in core body temperature that is about 0.9°C higher than that of untrained individuals (Hanna et al., 2011). ...
Article
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Climate change will have complex consequences for the environment, society, economy and people’s health. The issue of climate change has received comparatively little attention to date in the fields of sports science. Thus, sport-related health risks caused by climate change are discussed and summarized in a conceptual model presented here for the first time. Climate change is associated with the following increases of health-related risks for athletes in particular: Direct consequences caused by extreme temperature and other extreme weather events (e.g. increasing risks due to heatwaves, thunderstorms, floods, lightning, ultraviolet radiation) and indirect consequences as a result of climate-induced changes to our ecosystem (e.g. due to increased air pollution by ozone, higher exposures to allergens, increasing risks of infection by viruses and bacteria and the associated vectors and reservoir organisms). Each aspect is supplemented with advice on the prevention of health hazards. Not only individual athletes but also sports organizations and local clubs will have to respond to the changes in our climate, so that they can appropriately protect both athletes and spectators and ensure a plannable continuation of the sport in the future.
... We extend the definition of heat exposure 8 to contact between people and immediate thermal environment (affected by air temperature, humidity, wind speed and mean radiant temperature) that results in any of the following: increase in core temperature, heart rate, or sweating (physiological strain 10 ), change in thermal sensation and pleasure (i.e. thermal discomfort), or change in various aspects of life quality and lifestyle (including physical activity 30 , food intake 31 , sleep quality 32 and mental health 33 ) . The literature database search in this area leads to thousands of studies well beyond the scope and feasibility of this literature review. ...
... More related to the general population than specific professions, it is evident that assessment of heat exposure impact on wellbeing is overlooked in the literature 24 . Research suggests that heat exposure affects various aspects of human life and wellbeing beyond the direct heat-health relationship, including physical activity 30 , food intake 31 , sleep quality 32 and mental health 33 and exposure to outdoor environments, ultimately contributing to creating obesogenic environments. Ambient temperature is one of several factors hypothesized to influence obesity, a significant public health concern. ...
Article
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To fully address the multi-faceted challenges of urban heat, it is paramount that humans are placed at the center of the agenda. This is manifested in a recent shift in urban heat studies that aim to achieve a "Human-Centric" approach, i.e. focusing on personalized characteristics of comfort, well-being, performance, and health, as opposed to the one-size-fits-all solutions and guidelines. The proposed article is focused on systematically reviewing personalized urban heat studies and detailing the objectives posed, methodologies utilized, and limitations yet to be addressed. We further summarize current knowledge and challenges in addressing the impact of personal heat exposure on human life by discussing the literature linked with urban heat studies at the human, building, and city scales. Lastly, this systematic review reveals the need for future evaluations focused on accuracy and standardization of human-centric data collection and analytics, and more importantly, addressing critical geographic and socio-economic knowledge gaps identified in the field.
... Some studies have highlighted that in temperate climate regions, climate change (e.g., increase in temperatures) might positively impact physical activity behaviors (e.g., active travel) [17]. Conversely, climate change impacts such as heat waves and natural disasters are related to lower physical activity participation, decreased sport participation and limited sport performance in subtropical regions [18,19]. On the other hand, some researchers have argued that physical activity behaviors could play a major role in adaptation and mitigation strategies [20]. ...
... Maloney and Forbes [18] modeled the ability of the human body to transfer heat to the environment under projected future meteorological conditions. They established the yearly number of days between 2001 and 2070 on which Perth (Australia) residents will become either hyperthermic (i.e., failed heat balance resulting in hyperthermia) or living in "dangerous days" (i.e., body temperature increase > 2.5 °C in less than 2 h) in the context of moderate or vigorous physical activities. ...
Article
Full-text available
Background Climate change impacts are associated with dramatic consequences for human health and threaten physical activity (PA) behaviors.Objective The aims of this systematic review were to present the potential bidirectional associations between climate change impacts and PA behaviors in humans and to propose a synthesis of the literature through a conceptual model of climate change and PA.Methods Studies published before October 2020 were identified through database searches in PubMed, PsycARTICLES, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, GreenFILE, GeoRef, Scopus, JSTOR and Transportation Research Information Services. Studies examining the associations between PA domains and climate change (e.g., natural disasters, air pollution, and carbon footprint) were included.ResultsA narrative synthesis was performed and the 74 identified articles were classified into 6 topics: air pollution and PA, extreme weather conditions and PA, greenhouse gas emissions and PA, carbon footprint among sport participants, natural disasters and PA and the future of PA and sport practices in a changing world. Then, a conceptual model was proposed to identify the multidimensional associations between climate change and PA as well as sport practices. Results indicated a consistent negative effect of air pollution, extreme temperatures and natural disasters on PA levels. This PA reduction is more severe in adults with chronic diseases, higher body mass index and the elderly. Sport and PA communities can play an important mitigating role in post-natural disaster contexts. However, transport related to sport practices is also a source of greenhouse gas emissions.Conclusion Climate change impacts affect PA at a worldwide scale. PA is observed to play both a mitigation and an amplification role in climate changes.Trial Registration NumberPROSPERO CRD42019128314.
... Selon les divers scénarios d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre, appelés « profils représentatifs d'évolution de concentration » (ou RCP), une augmentation moyenne de la température à la surface de la Terre de 1 à 4 °C est estimée d'ici 2100 (GIEC, 2015), avec de grandes disparités entre les régions. L'humain est et sera donc amené à évoluer dans un environnement de plus en plus chaud (Grundstein et al., 2013;Maloney & Forbes, 2011), y compris au Québec (Ouranos, 2015). Par ailleurs, les enjeux de disponibilité en eau sont de plus en plus présents, en raison de l'accroissement de la demande mondiale, elle-même liée à la forte croissance démographique et à l'élévation du (Bernard et al., 2021). ...
Thesis
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(Thesis written in French) Dehydration, especially when ≥ 2% body mass, is usually associated with an alteration of physiological functions, subjective perceptions as well as endurance performance and cognitive functions. More specifically, it is frequently mentioned that together, the cardiovascular, thermal, metabolic impacts as well as subjective effects induced by dehydration could contribute to increase the perception of effort, which in turn would act as a mediator of endurance performance. While several studies have observed an exacerbation of the perception of effort with dehydration, evidence is contradictory, and some studies do not observe such an effect. In addition, evidence suggests that some individuals may better tolerate dehydration, while others are more widely affected. In this regard, a hypothesis has recently been put forward, according to which repeated exposure to dehydration could somewhat attenuate certain effects, in particular on subjective perceptions, including the perception of effort, and therefore reduce its subsequent impact on performance. In addition to being a possible key mediator in the relationship between exercise-induced dehydration and endurance performance, perception of effort could also play a central role in the process of habituation to the dehydration. However, the idea that humans can become habituated to dehydration has been discussed superficially and anecdotally. Several questions remain unanswered and must therefore be studied.
... 11 A study for the city of Perth projects that by 2070, manual labour will be dangerous to perform on 15e26 days per year compared with 1 day per year at present for acclimatised people. 12 For this indicator, we calculated total hours of labour lost due to heat in the agriculture, industry and service sectors in Australia (Box 5). Over the period 2000e2017, there was significant interannual variability, with two periods of particularly high labour loss: an earlier period including the years 2001, 2002 and 2004; and a later period including the years 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017. ...
Article
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Climate plays an important role in human health and it is well established that climate change can have very significant impacts in this regard. In partnership with The Lancet and the MJA, we present the inaugural Australian Countdown assessment of progress on climate change and health. This comprehensive assessment examines 41 indicators across five broad sections: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. These indicators and the methods used for each are largely consistent with those of the Lancet Countdown global assessment published in October 2017, but with an Australian focus. Significant developments include the addition of a new indicator on mental health. Overall, we find that Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In a number of respects, Australia has gone backwards and now lags behind other high income countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Examples include the persistence of a very high carbon-intensive energy system in Australia, and its slow transition to renewables and low carbon electricity generation. However, we also find some examples of good progress, such as heatwave response planning. Given the overall poor state of progress on climate change and health in Australia, this country now has an enormous opportunity to take action and protect human health and lives. Australia has the technical knowhow and intellect to do this, and our annual updates of this assessment will track Australia’s engagement with and progress on this vitally important issue.
... Treatment options are also discussed. As the climate warms it has been projected (Maloney and Forbes 2011) that in the future decades the number of days on which sporting events for humans can be conducted without risk may diminish substantially, especially in the hot summer months. The same will no doubt pertain to our equine athletes. ...
... Heat strokes (Nakai et al. 1999) and heat waves can provoke serious impacts on morbidity and mortality. Some authors have focused their work on the effect of few degrees of change in air temperature on human heat balance (Maloney and Forbes 2011). Risk and vulnerability of humans (Larson 1990;De'Donato et al. 2008;Vanos 2015) is analyzed through comparative studies that consider thermoregulation responses to heat (Wijayanto et al. 2011;Rosenfelder et al. 2016). ...
Article
The following paper presents the history of the Climate and Human Health Commission at the International Society of Biometeorology after more than one decade since its creation. A brief history of the origins of the human biometeorology is revealed through some of the main research topics and publications of the founders of the society in this field. Secondly, it is presented as a brief review of the activities of the commission in the last 10 years, based on the reports that have periodically been submitted by members of the commission to the Bulletin of the society. A summary of the topics of interest on human biometeorology and the most frequent research topics are also described. Thirdly, the need of adapting human biometeorology contents, methods and techniques to a changing world is articulated according to some of the new environmental threats in the XXI century. Finally, a list of future actions and research lines collected through a form from members of the commission is presented. The paper concludes with the existence of great challenge for human biometeorology in order to transform biometeorological knowledge into specific services to improve the wellbeing of human beings.
... Heat acclimation will improve substantially the capacity of people to work outside, under future climate change (Maloney & Forbes, 2011). It may well be that there is little evidence for adaptation of UCT to heat, but UCT is not a measure of heat tolerance (see above, ...
Article
1. The accuracy of predictive models (also known as mechanistic or causal models) of animal responses to climate change depends on properly incorporating the principles of heat transfer and thermoregulation into those models. Regrettably, proper incorporation of these principles is not always evident. 2. We have revisited the relevant principles of thermal physiology and analyzed how they have been applied in predictive models of large mammals, which are particularly vulnerable, to climate change. We considered dry heat exchange, evaporative heat transfer, the thermoneutral zone and homeothermy, and we examined the roles of size and shape in the thermal physiology of large mammals. 3. We report on the following misconceptions in influential predictive models: underestimation of the role of radiant heat transfer, misassignment of the role and misunderstanding of the sustainability of evaporative cooling, misinterpretation of the thermoneutral zone as a zone of thermal tolerance or as a zone of sustainable energetics, confusion of upper critical temperature and critical thermal maximum, overestimation of the metabolic energy cost of evaporative cooling, failure to appreciate that the current advantages of size and shape will become disadvantageous as climate change advances, misassumptions about skin temperature, and lastly, misconceptions about the relationship between body core temperature and its variability with body mass in large mammals. 4. Not all misconceptions invalidate the models, but we believe that preventing inappropriate assumptions from propagating will improve model accuracy, especially as models progress beyond their current typically-static format to include genetic and epigenetic adaptation that can result in phenotypic plasticity.
... Only six manuscripts explicitly considered temporal change in health outcomes. Of these six, five involved projections of future temperature-related mortality or morbidity (Ostro et al. 2012;Martin et al. 2012;Maloney and Forbes 2011;Gosling et al. 2009;Dessai 2003), whereas only one involved historical trends in heat-related mortality (Davis et al. 2003). Although projections of future health impacts related to climate change are rapidly growing in number in the literature, no such studies have been published in IJB since 2012. ...
Article
Improvements in global sustainability, health, and equity will largely be determined by the extent to which cities are able to become more efficient, hospitable, and productive places. The development and evolution of urban areas has a significant impact on local and regional weather and climate, which subsequently affect people and other organisms that live in and near cities. Biometeorologists, researchers who study the impact of weather and climate on living creatures, are well positioned to help evaluate and anticipate the consequences of urbanization on the biosphere. Motivated by the 60th anniversary of the International Society of Biometeorology, we reviewed articles published in the Society’s International Journal of Biometeorology over the period 1974–2017 to understand if and how biometeorologists have directed attention to urban areas. We found that interest in urban areas has rapidly accelerated; urban-oriented articles accounted for more than 20% of all articles published in the journal in the most recent decade. Urban-focused articles in the journal span five themes: measuring urban climate, theoretical foundations and models, human thermal comfort, human morbidity and mortality, and ecosystem impacts. Within these themes, articles published in the journal represent a sizeable share of the total academic literature. More explicit attention from urban biometeorologists publishing in the journal to low- and middle-income countries, indoor environments, animals, and the impacts of climate change on human health would help ensure that the distinctive perspectives of biometeorology reach the places, people, and processes that are the foci of global sustainability, health, and equity goals.
... 11 A study for the city of Perth projects that by 2070, manual labour will be dangerous to perform on 15-26 days per year compared with 1 day per year at present for acclimatised people. 12 For this indicator, we calculated total hours of labour lost due to heat in the agriculture, industry and service sectors in Australia (Box 5). Over the period 2000-2017, there was significant interannual variability, with two periods of particularly high labour loss: an earlier period including the years 2001, 2002 and 2004; and a later period including the years 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017. ...
Article
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1. Climate plays an important role in human health and it is well established that climate change can have very significant impacts in this regard. In partnership with The Lancet and the MJA, we present the inaugural Australian Countdown assessment of progress on climate change and health. 2. This comprehensive assessment examines 41 indicators across five broad sections: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co‐benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. 3. These indicators and the methods used for each are largely consistent with those of the Lancet Countdown global assessment published in October 2017, but with an Australian focus. Significant developments include the addition of a new indicator on mental health. 4. Overall, we find that Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In a number of respects, Australia has gone backwards and now lags behind other high income countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Examples include the persistence of a very high carbon‐intensive energy system in Australia, and its slow transition to renewables and low carbon electricity generation. However, we also find some examples of good progress, such as heatwave response planning. 5. Given the overall poor state of progress on climate change and health in Australia, this country now has an enormous opportunity to take action and protect human health and lives. Australia has the technical knowhow and intellect to do this, and our annual updates of this assessment will track Australia's engagement with and progress on this vitally important issue.
... Previous studies have shown that coastal dwellers, as well as the elderly, and patients with heart-and lung-related diseases are more vulnerable to impacts of extreme heat events (e.g. Knowlton et al., 2007;Maloney and Forbes, 2011). ...
Article
The present study examines trends in extreme temperature absolute indices [warmest day (TXx), coldest day (TXn), warmest night (TNx) and coldest night (TNn)] using the newly homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature series from 21 stations in Nigeria for the period 1971–2012. The indices provide an understanding of the characteristics of changing temperature, in light of the present anthropogenic global warming. Trends in the indices and the statistical significance are obtained using the modified Mann–Kendall test in the R-package. The results show that many of the stations have significant increasing trends in the absolute indices, with the warming most pronounced in Southern Nigeria. Averaged over the country, the TXx, TXn, TNx and TNn have absolute warming trends of 0.59, 0.17, 0.67and 0.97 °C, respectively, for the 42 years since 1971. The warming rate is highest during the winter (DJF) season for TNn. The present study also examines the possible influence of large-scale teleconnection patterns on extreme temperature variations by determining the correlation between the absolute indices and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index on monthly, seasonal and annual timescales. Our results show that warming over Nigeria during the dry season months from November to February is significantly correlated with NAO. The NAO has significant correlation with TXx and TXn in the north, and with TNx and TNn in the south. The analysis is repeated with ERA-20C-gridded data set, and similar correlations are found. The warming nights, in particular, in Nigeria can lead to sleeplessness and widespread mosquito-related diseases as the mosquito population and its parasites thrive in warmer conditions. The results of the analyses are relevant for decision-making process, especially for the development of early warning systems for extreme heat events.
... Hotter temperatures place outdoor and manual labourers at increased risk of heatrelated illnesses, work accidents and death, while the increased incidence of extreme weather events increases occupational risks for emergency services 43,44,45 MeNTAL iLLNess AND sTress Ongoing environmental change and more frequent and severe weather events, combined with the social and economic impacts of climate change, increase the risk that Australians will experience mental illness and stress 41,42,46,47,48 AerOALLergeNs AND Air POLLuTiON Increases in atmospheric temperatures may lengthen the pollen season and alter chemical reactions of some air pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter, increasing exposure to aeroallergens and aggravating conditions such as allergic rhinitis, as well as heart and lung conditions including asthma, while increasing the risk of mortality 41 In addition, there are serious and immediate health threats associated with the production and combustion of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas. International estimates suggest air pollution from coal-fired electricity generation is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. 1 In Australia, the health impacts from coal-fired power generation is estimated to cost $2.6 billion annually. ...
Technical Report
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A nation-wide consultation with healthcare stakeholders in 2016 revealed serious concerns at the lack of national leadership to address the serious and increasing public health risks posed by climate change. There is a clear expectation that the Commonwealth Government provide leadership for a national response to address climate change and health, and a rm conviction that a national public policy framework is required to coordinate action across government portfolios and at all levels of government. While important actions are being taken at the state/ territory and local level, a coordinated national effort is required to ensure that Australia is well prepared to protect the health and well-being of communities from the impacts of climate change. This Framework for a National Strategy on Climate, Health and Well-being for Australia provides a roadmap to support the Commonwealth Government in taking a leadership role in protecting the health and well-being of Australian communities from climate change, and in ful lling its international obligations under the Paris Agreement.
... Chapter 1) in the near-term future, defined as roughly midway through the 21st century, or the era of climate responsibility (see SPM). It is uncertain how much acclimatization may mitigate the effects on human health (Wilkinson et al., 2007a;Bi and Parton, 2008;Baccini et al., 2011;Hanna et al., 2011;Maloney and Forbes, 2011;Peng et al., 2011;Honda et al., 2013). In New York, it was estimated that acclimatization may reduce the impact of added summer heat in the 2050s by roughly a quarter (Knowlton et al., 2007). ...
Chapter
Introduction This chapter examines what is known about the effects of climate change on human health and, briefly, the more direct impacts of climate-altering pollutants (CAPs; see Glossary) on health. We review diseases and other aspects of poor health that are sensitive to weather and climate. We examine the factors that influence the susceptibility of populations and individuals to ill health due to variations in weather and climate, and describe steps that may be taken to reduce the impacts of climate change on human health. The chapter also includes a section on health "co-benefits." Co-benefits are positive effects on human health that arise from interventions to reduce emissions of those CAPs that warm the planet or vice versa. This is a scientific assessment based on best available evidence according to the judgment of the authors. We searched the English-language literature up to August 2013, focusing primarily on publications since 2007. We drew primarily (but not exclusively) on peer-reviewed journals. Literature was identified using a published protocol (Hosking and Campbell-Lendrum, 2012) and other approaches, including extensive consultation with technical experts in the field. We examined recent substantial reviews (e.g., Gosling et al., 2009; Bassil and Cole, 2010; Hajat et al., 2010; Huang et al., 2011; McMichael, 2013b; Stanke et al., 2013) to check for any omissions of important work. In selecting citations for the chapter, we gave priority to publications that were recent (since AR4), comprehensive, added significant new findings to the literature, and included areas or population groups that have not previously been well described or were judged to be particularly policy relevant in other respects. We begin with an outline of measures of human health, the major driving forces that act on health worldwide, recent trends in health status, and health projections for the remainder of the 21st century. 11.1.1. Present State of Global Health The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) pointed to dramatic improvement in life expectancy in most parts of the world in the 20th century, and this trend has continued through the first decade of the 21st century (Wang et al., 2012).
... Numerous metrics are based upon direct physiological responses within humans and animals, however, almost all of them are complicated algorithms (e.g. Moran et al., 2001;Berglund and Yokota, 2005;Gribox et al., 2008;Maloney and Forbes, 2011;Havenith et al., 2011;Gonzalez et al., 2012;Chan et al., 2012). The Universal Thermal ...
Article
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We implement and analyze 13 different metrics (4 moist thermodynamic quantities and 9 heat stress metrics) in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5), the land surface component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We call these routines the HumanIndexMod. These heat stress metrics embody three philosophical approaches: comfort, physiology, and empirically based algorithms. The metrics are directly connected to CLM4.5 BareGroundFuxesMod, CanopyFluxesMod, SlakeFluxesMod, and UrbanMod modules in order to differentiate between the distinct regimes even within one gridcell. This allows CLM4.5 to calculate the instantaneous heat stress at every model time step, for every land surface type, capturing all aspects of non-linearity in moisture-temperature covariance. Secondary modules for initialization and archiving are modified to generate the metrics as standard output. All of the metrics implemented depend on the covariance of near surface atmospheric variables: temperature, pressure, and humidity. Accurate wet bulb temperatures are critical for quantifying heat stress (used by 5 of the 9 heat stress metrics). Unfortunately, moist thermodynamic calculations for calculating accurate wet bulb temperatures are not in CLM4.5. To remedy this, we incorporated comprehensive water vapor calculations into CLM4.5. The three advantages of adding these metrics to CLM4.5 are (1) improved thermodynamic calculations within climate models, (2) quantifying human heat stress, and (3) that these metrics may be applied to other animals as well as industrial applications. Additionally, an offline version of the HumanIndexMod is available for applications with weather and climate datasets. Examples of such applications are the high temporal resolution CMIP5 archived data, weather and research forecasting models, CLM4.5 flux tower simulations (or other land surface model validation studies), and local weather station data analysis. To demonstrate the capabilities of the HumanIndexMod, we analyze the top 1% of heat stress events from 1901–2010 at a 4 × daily resolution from a global CLM4.5 simulation. We cross compare these events to the input moisture and temperature conditions, and with each metric. Our results show that heat stress may be divided into two regimes: arid and non-arid. The highest heat stress values are in areas with strong convection (±30° latitude). Equatorial regions have low variability in heat stress values (±20° latitude). Arid regions have large variability in extreme heat stress as compared to the low latitudes.
... Assuming an increase of 3 degree in WBGT index due to climate change since 2000, their study concluded that the risk of heat stress in most regions would be moderate and high (14). The number of days during which people will not be able to engage in physical activities in order to avoid the effects of heat stress increased with time, so that in 2070 about 15 to 26 days a year will be dangerous for physical activities, while the amount is currently one day a year (21). Given the existing trend of climate change over time, the results of current study indicate that an increase in the risk of heat stresses for the workers in heavy, physical jobs in open environments will be seen over the hot month of the year. ...
Article
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Background: The workers who are working in the open and warm environments are at risk of health effects of climate and heat changes. It is expected that the risk is increase with global warming. This study aimed to investigate the changes of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index in the past and to predict their trend of future changes in Tehran, capital of Iran. Methods: The meteorological data recorded in Tehran, Iran during the statistical period between 1961 and 2009 were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization and based on them, WBGT index was calculated and processed using Man-Kendall correlation test. Results: The results of Man-Kendall correlation test showed that the trend of changes of annual mean WBGT during the statistical period under study (1961–2009) has been significantly increasing. In addition, the result of proposed predictive model estimated that an increase of about 1.55 degree in WBGT index will be seen over 40 years from 2009 to 2050 in Tehran. Conclusion: Climate change in Tehran has had an effect on person’s exposure to heat stresses consistent with global warming.
... The NWBT is developed to quantify the heat exchange between a person and the surrounding environment by including air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation (Maloney & Forbes, 2011). Compared to the aforementioned four indices, the NWBT considers both convective and radiative heat transfer ways. ...
Article
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It has been suggested that global warming impacts on human thermal comfort will cause an increase in the heat stress and a decrease in the cold stress in the future. A recent study has shown elevated increases in human-perceived equivalent temperature (HPET) by using a single index for summer and winter seasons (Li et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0036-2). However, they have not considered multiple indices with combined effects on deriving HPET, which can result in large uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on HPET and related extremes. Therefore, we develop a new framework with high-resolution projections and an ensemble of 10 indices to quantify the impacts of climate change on HPET and related perceived extremes as well as to address uncertainties in both empirical indices and emission scenarios over China. Our findings reveal that different combinations of climatic variables can lead to two opposite conclusions for both normal and extreme conditions. For example, by using indices only considering the combined effect of temperature and relative humidity, China is projected to have an elevated increase in the HPET and in the frequency of high-temperature extremes. By taking into account wind speed, the country expects to have the HPET even lower than the surface air temperature and an increase in the frequency of low-temperature extremes. In addition, the resulting range of HPET due to uncertainty in indices is greater than the uncertainty range derived from different emission scenarios for the entire country. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive assessment that explicitly addresses uncertainties in the HPET in order to improve the robustness and reliability of assessing climate change impacts on human-perceived temperature extremes.
... In occupational settings, problems are already felt by millions of workers [30], especially those above 53/56 years old (males/females) who are especially susceptible to heat illness [140]. The available data suggest that in future decades, individuals working even in temperate climates may be at risk for heat illness on nearly 40 days/year [241]. In line with this, the extent of the damaging potential of heat on human productivity is evident in estimations for 2030, according to which the heat-related labor productivity losses may be 70 times more damaging to healthy, productive, and disability-free life years, than those resulting by occupational heat stroke fatalities [219]. ...
Chapter
The projected rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat conditions associated with global climate change represent the greatest threat to human health of the twenty-first century. This threat is particularly great for heat-vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those employed in physically demanding occupations. As such, there is an immediate need to define appropriate heat action plans to protect human health. To increase our readiness and ability to protect people during extreme heat events, it is essential that we continue to develop our understanding of the physiological factors that contribute to increased heat vulnerability. This includes the inter- and intraindividual factors that modify physiological strain during extreme heat exposure or during work and/or physical activity in the heat. In this review, emphasis will be directed to the consequences of rising global temperatures on human health, including the cause-and-effect relationships between the thermal environment and the body’s physiological capacity to dissipate heat. Further, we examine how physiological adaptations, behavioral adjustments, and the implementation of heat management and monitoring strategies can mediate one’s susceptibility to heat exposure and work in the heat. Finally, we review current initiatives directed at creating communities and industries resilient to climate change and protecting the general public and workers against the projected rise in temperatures.
... To delineate the myriad factors that can contribute to heat-associated occupational incidents, we used a socioecological approach, recognizing that risk factors may be aligned with the individual, and/or be linked with interpersonal and organizational contexts [35]. Individual-level factors included the benefits of acclimatization that can render workers less likely to suffer from hyperthermia than those who are un-acclimatized [41]. Nevertheless, heat exposure effects can accumulate over several days, likely due to individuals working beyond their physiological levels of heat tolerance [42]. ...
Article
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Epidemiological evidence has shown an association between exposure to high temperatures and occupational injuries, an issue gaining importance with environmental change. The aim of this study was to better understand contributing risk factors and preventive actions based on personal experiences. Interviews were conducted with 21 workers from five Australian states using a critical phenomenological approach to capture the lived experiences of participants, whilst exploring contextual factors that surround these experiences. Two case studies are presented: a cerebrovascular injury and injuries among seasonal horticulture workers. Other accounts of heat-related injuries and heat stress are also presented. Risk factors were classified as individual, interpersonal and organizational. In terms of prevention, participants recommended greater awareness of heat risks and peer-support for co-workers. Adding value to current evidence, we have provided new insights into the etiology of the health consequences of workplace heat exposure with workers identifying a range of influencing factors, prevention measures and adaptation strategies. Underpinning the importance of these are future climate change scenarios, suggesting that extended hot seasons will lead to increasing numbers of workers at risk of heat-stress and associated occupational injuries.
... 152 • As the frequency and intensity of heatwaves increases due to climate change, increased hospitalisations and considerable associated costs due to lost productivity can be expected. 153 Transport and logistics • Movement of heavy machinery and transport on 'bleeding' pavements may cause surface damage. 154 • Effects of heatwave on the road and rail networks may impact transport and logistics operations, especially where: ...
Technical Report
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The summer of 2018-19 was the hottest on record for Australia. The extreme heatwaves and bushfires that occurred across Queensland are a clear indication that we are facing unprecedented challenges in understanding and responding to the impacts of natural hazards in a changing climate. The State Heatwave Risk Assessment (SHRA) was developed to provide all stakeholders with clear and consistent information regarding the changing nature of heatwave risk in Queensland. It was a collaborative effort between multiple stakeholders, coordinated through a working group led by Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES), Queensland Health (QH), and the Department of Environment and Science (DES). The inclusion of long-term climate change projections within the assessment represents a first for hazard specific, emergency management related risk assessments in Australia. This robust scientific basis enhances the assessment and enables State agencies and disaster management groups to inform their planning against current and future heatwave risk.
... The rise in heat stress has a considerable adverse impact on human health (Harlan et al. 2014;Kovats and Akhtar 2008;Michelozzi et al. 2009;Gosling et al. 2009). Heat stress impacts human activity (Maloney and Forbes 2011) leading to reduced labor productivity (Kjellstrom et al. 2009;Dunne et al. 2013;Zander et al. 2015). Another phenomenon worsening human thermal comfort during the summer season is heatwaves. ...
Article
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Human beings are adversely affected by climate extremes, pertinent to an increase in frequency and intensity of warm temperatures, eventually inducing warming on a global and regional scale. In a tropical nation like India, high summer temperature and increased moisture with the arrival of the southwest monsoon (hereafter referred to as monsoon) aggravate the sultriness of the ambient environment. Irrespective of global climate change, cities alter their climate due to urban materials' impervious surfaces and thermal properties, which upsurge moisture and temperature in urban settings. Thus, urban dwellers are peculiarly vulnerable to heat stress health hazards. Heat stress indices allow quantitative assessment of thermal stress to determine the safe limits of thermal exposure. In the present study, statistical trends in Heat Index were evaluated to analyze heat stress over 41 urban stations of southern peninsular India over the summer and monsoon season from 1969 to 2015. Results indicated that almost all stations registered a significant increase at 95% confidence level in heat stress except for an insignificant decrease at a few stations. Changepoint detection depicted an increase in heat stress initiated in the late 1990s and early years of the decade 2000 at most urban stations. Hierarchical cluster analysis partitioned data into seven spatial units. Accordingly, the highest magnitude of increase was observed over cities located in the northeastern part of the study area and the southern tip of peninsular India. The study demands attention to perilous health risks related to India's increasing heat stress casualties and the need for an indigenous thermal stress alerts system.
... Also, meta-analytic data shows that 30% of individuals who work under heat stress report productivity losses [1] with potentially large spill over effects on the entire economy [29]. In the coming decades, individuals working in currently temperate climates may be at risk for heat illness on nearly 40 days/year [30]. ...
Article
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In a series of three companion papers published in this Journal, we identify and validate the available thermal stress indicators (TSIs). In this third paper, we conducted field experiments across nine countries to evaluate the efficacy of 61 meteorology-based TSIs for assessing the physiological strain experienced by individuals working in the heat. We monitored 372 experienced and acclimatized workers during 893 full work shifts. We continuously assessed core body temperature, mean skin temperature, and heart rate data together with pre/post urine specific gravity and color. The TSIs were evaluated against 17 published criteria covering physiological parameters, practicality, cost effectiveness, and health guidance issues. Simple meteorological parameters explained only a fraction of the variance in physiological heat strain (R 2 = 0.016 to 0.427; p < 0.001), reflecting the importance of adopting more sophisticated TSIs. Nearly all TSIs correlated with mean skin temperature (98%), mean body temperature (97%), and heart rate (92%), while 66% of TSIs correlated with the magnitude of dehydration and 59% correlated with core body temperature (r = 0.031 to 0.602; p < 0.05). When evaluated against the 17 published criteria, the TSIs scored from 4.7 to 55.4% (max score = 100%). The indoor (55.4%) and outdoor (55.1%) Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (51.7%) scored higher compared to other TSIs (4.7 to 42.0%). Therefore, these three TSIs have the highest potential to assess the physiological strain experienced by individuals working in the heat.
... Heat limits the time people are able to be physically active and reduces work productivity, as more breaks are required to avoid health problems like dehydration, spasms and fatigue or even more serious illnesses such as heat stroke (Levy and Patz, 2015;Binazzi et al., 2019). A study predicted that heat acclimatized people in Perth in 2070 will not be able to perform manual labor for 15-26 days a year due to the extreme heat, while currently it is only one day per five years (Maloney and Forbes, 2011). For unacclimatized individuals of low physical fitness and low body mass, performance decrement is probably greater, as these factors are shown to be most detrimental for working in the heat (Foster et al., 2020;Foster et al., 2021). ...
Article
Thermal models and indices integrated into a mobile application could provide relevant information regarding thermal stress and strain to the general public. The aim of the current paper is to validate such a mobile application, ClimApp, to the users need in the heat. ClimApp combines weather data with personal user data, thermal models and indices to estimate the thermal strain of the user. The output of ClimApp ranges from -4 to +4, where values below 0 indicate cold stress and values above 0 indicate heat strain. 134 participants filled in the required personal settings into the app, and indicated if the estimated thermal strain by ClimApp matched their thermal perception. 45 of the participants filled in a user satisfaction questionnaire. Results show that ClimApp is able to predict the heat strain of the user, but may underestimate perceived heat strain when ambient temperature increases. Furthermore, participants were positive about the user-friendliness of ClimApp, but did not think they would use ClimApp frequently and believed the information was irrelevant for them. This is quite remarkable as the number of heat illness cases are increasing and the negative effects of heat occur in all populations exposing themselves to the heat. There needs to be more focus on making people aware of the negative health risks of the heat. ClimApp could play a role as a tool to make heat warnings more accessible for everyone and make people aware of appropriate behavior during periods with high ambient temperatures.
... 99,100 Projections (in Perth, WA, Australia) indicate an eight to 50-fold increase in the number of days that will be unsafe for moderate physical activity by 2070. 101 Sports requiring intense physical activity are at high risk, including those with prolonged environmental exposures (marathon, triathlon, and road cycling), high intensity sports, and those where specialised clothing or protective equipment impairs heat loss (eg, American football and cricket). Risks for youth athletes are poorly understood. ...
Article
Hot ambient conditions and associated heat stress can increase mortality and morbidity, as well as increase adverse pregnancy outcomes and negatively affect mental health. High heat stress can also reduce physical work capacity and motor-cognitive performances, with consequences for productivity, and increase the risk of occupational health problems. Almost half of the global population and more than 1 billion workers are exposed to high heat episodes and about a third of all exposed workers have negative health effects. However, excess deaths and many heat-related health risks are preventable, with appropriate heat action plans involving behavioural strategies and biophysical solutions. Extreme heat events are becoming permanent features of summer seasons worldwide, causing many excess deaths. Heat-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase further as climate change progresses, with greater risk associated with higher degrees of global warming. Particularly in tropical regions, increased warming might mean that physiological limits related to heat tolerance (survival) will be reached regularly and more often in coming decades. Climate change is interacting with other trends, such as population growth and ageing, urbanisation, and socioeconomic development, that can either exacerbate or ameliorate heat-related hazards. Urban temperatures are further enhanced by anthropogenic heat from vehicular transport and heat waste from buildings. Although there is some evidence of adaptation to increasing temperatures in high-income countries, projections of a hotter future suggest that without investment in research and risk management actions, heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase.
... Future predictions for global warming and increasing temperatures suggest that activity levels will be reduced due to thermal stress as well as reduced competitive levels at events [23,24]. This is due to exercise altering the bodies thermoregulatory, circulatory and endocrine systems and a reduced capability to maintain a suitable internal body temperature, especially in warmer and more humid conditions [23]. ...
Preprint
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Background: Despite increased awareness of climate change and urban air pollution, little research has been performed to examine the influence of meteorology and air quality on athletic performance of the general public and recreational exercisers. Anecdotal evidence of increased temperatures and wind speeds as well as higher relative humidity conditions resulting in reduced athletic performance has been presented in the past, whilst urban air pollution can have negative short- and long-term impacts on health. Furthermore, pollutants such as Ozone, Nitrogen Dioxide and Particulate Matter can cause respiratory and cardiovascular distress, which can be heightened during physical activity. Previous research has examined these impacts on marathon runners, or have been performed in laboratory settings. Instead, this paper focuses on the potential impacts on the general public. With the rise of parkrun events (timed 5 km runs) across the UK and worldwide concerns regarding public health in relation to both air quality and activity levels, the potential influence of air quality and meteorology on what is viewed as a ‘healthy’ activity has been investigated. A weekly dataset of parkrun participants at fifteen events, located in London UK, from 2011-2016 alongside local meteorological and air quality data has been analysed. Results[JH(G+ESLF1] : The biggest influencer on athletic performance is meteorology, particularly temperature and wind speed. Regression results between parkrun finishing times and temperature predominantly show positive relationships, supporting previous laboratory tests (p=0[JH(G+ESLF2] .01). Increased relative humidity also can be associated with slower finishing times but in several cases is not statistically significant. Higher wind speeds can also be related to slower times (p=<0.01) and in contrast to temperature and relative humidity, male participants are more influenced than female by this variable. Although air quality does influence athletic performance to an extent, the heterogeneity of pollutants within London and between parkrun events and monitoring sites makes this difficult to prove decisively. Conclusions: It has been determined that temperature and relative humidity can have the largest detrimental impact on parkrun performance, with ozone also being detrimental in some instances[JH(G+ESLF3] . The influence of other variables cannot be discounted however and it is recommended that modelling is performed to further determine the extent to which ‘at event’ meteorology and air quality has on performance. In the future, there results can be used to determine safe operating and exercise conditions for parkrun and other public athletics events. Key Points · Temperature and relative humidity have the largest detrimental impact on parkrun participants in the Greater London area. · Air quality impacts are less clear but it is shown that ozone, as an irritant to the cardiorespiratory system, can lead to slower times. · Modelling ‘at event’ air quality is recommended to improve data resolution and influence on participants.
... Future predictions for global warming and increasing temperatures suggest that activity levels will be reduced due to thermal stress as well as reduced competitive levels at events [23,24]. This is due to exercise altering the bodies thermoregulatory, circulatory and endocrine systems and a reduced capability to maintain a suitable internal body temperature, especially in warmer and more humid conditions [23]. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Despite increased awareness of climate change and urban air pollution, little research has been performed to examine the influence of meteorology and air quality on athletic performance of the general public and recreational exercisers. Anecdotal evidence of increased temperatures and wind speeds as well as higher relative humidity conditions resulting in reduced athletic performance has been presented in the past, whilst urban air pollution can have negative short- and long-term impacts on health. Furthermore, pollutants such as Ozone, Nitrogen Dioxide and Particulate Matter can cause respiratory and cardiovascular distress, which can be heightened during physical activity. Previous research has examined these impacts on marathon runners, or have been performed in laboratory settings. Instead, this paper focuses on the potential impacts on the general public. With the rise of parkrun events (timed 5 km runs) across the UK and worldwide concerns regarding public health in relation to both air quality and activity levels, the potential influence of air quality and meteorology on what is viewed as a ‘healthy’ activity has been investigated. A weekly dataset of parkrun participants at fifteen events, located in London UK, from 2011–2016 alongside local meteorological and air quality data has been analysed. Results The biggest influencer on athletic performance is meteorology, particularly temperature and wind speed. Regression results between parkrun finishing times and temperature predominantly show positive relationships, supporting previous laboratory tests. Increased relative humidity also causes slower finishing times but in several cases is not statistically significant. Higher wind speeds also result in slower times and in contrast to temperature and relative humidity, male participants are more influenced than female by this variable. Although air quality does influence athletic performance to an extent, the heterogeneity of pollutants within London and between parkrun events and monitoring sites makes this difficult to prove decisively. Conclusions It has been determined that temperature and relative humidity can have the largest detrimental impact on parkrun performance, with Ozone also having an impact. The influence of other variables cannot be discounted however and it is recommended that modelling is performed to further determine the extent to which ‘at event’ meteorology and air quality has on performance. In the future, there results can be used to determine safe operating and exercise conditions for parkrun and other public athletics events.
... The NWBT is developed to quantify the heat exchange between a person and the surrounding environment by including air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation (Maloney & Forbes, 2011). Compared to the aforementioned four indices, the NWBT considers both convective and radiative heat transfer ways. ...
Article
This study assessed the potential impact of heat stress on labor productivity in South Korea; as such, stress is expected to increase due to climate change. To quantify the future loss of labor productivity, we used the relationship between the wet-bulb globe temperature and work-rest cycles with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 as the climate change scenarios. If only climate factors are considered, then future labor productivity is expected to decline in most regions from the middle of the twenty-first century onwards (2041–2070). From the late twenty-first century onwards, the productivity of heavy outdoor work could decline by 26.1% from current levels under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. Further analysis showed that regional differences in labor characteristics and the working population had noteworthy impacts on future labor productivity losses. The heat stress caused by climate change thus has a potentially substantial negative impact on outdoor labor productivity in South Korea.
Article
It is inevitable that each sector has a distinct vulnerability to climate change in divergent dimensions with different aspects. When health, social, cultural, and economic components are considered together, the vulnerability of the sports sector to climate change cannot be ignored in terms of its mass impact. Thus, it is estimated that professional or amateur athletes, trainers, and spectators, as well as managers, administrators, media workers, and sponsor companies interested in outdoor sports will be exposed to the potential direct and/or indirect impacts of climate change in the future. In this context, the potential impacts and risks of climate change on outdoor sports activities were comprehensively reviewed in terms of climate change indicators about the health of athletes and spectators, venues and calendars of competitions. Accordingly, the danger and risk thresholds were determined for the mentioned sports branches, and the conditions that cause the postponement or cancellation of the competitions are examined. Additionally, the extent to which these values and conditions may change in the short and long term with the increasing impacts of climate change has been considered. Moreover, the rules and regulations added to the sports and health policies of countries in order to minimize or prevent the adverse impacts caused by climate change have been examined, and additional precautions to be taken have been mentioned. The review indicates that these potential climate change-related disruptions may pose a serious risk for outdoor sports in terms of the health of athletes and spectators and sectoral incomes.
Article
The short- and long-term impacts of air pollution on human health are well documented and include cardiovascular, neurological, immune system and developmental damage. Additionally, the irritant qualities of air pollutants can cause respiratory and cardiovascular distress. This can be heightened during exercise and especially so for those with respiratory conditions such as asthma. Meteorological conditions have also been shown to adversely impact athletic performance; but research has mostly examined the impact of pollution and meteorology on marathon times or running under laboratory settings. This study focuses on the half marathon distance (13.1 miles/21.1 km) and utilises the Great North Run held in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England, between 2006 and 2019. Local meteorological (temperature, relative humidity, heat index and wind speed) and air quality (ozone, nitrogen dioxide and PM2.5) data is used in conjunction with finishing times of the quickest and slowest amateur participants, along with the elite field, to determine the extent to which each group is influenced in real-world conditions. Results show that increased temperatures, heat index and ozone concentrations are significantly detrimental to amateur half marathon performances. The elite field meanwhile is influenced by higher ozone concentrations. It is thought that the increased exposure time to the environmental conditions contributes to this greater decrease in performance for the slowest participants. For elite athletes that are performing closer to their maximal capacity (VO2 max), the higher ozone concentrations likely results in respiratory irritation and decreased performance. Nitrogen dioxide and PM2.5 pollution showed no significant relationship with finishing times. These results provide additional insight into the environmental effects on exercise, which is particularly important under the increasing effects climate change and regional air pollution. This study can be used to inform event organisation and start times for both mass participation and major elite events with the aim to reduce heat- and pollution-related incidents.
Article
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Adverse effects of occupational heat stress in the context of the changing climate on working populations are subtle but considerably harmful. However, social dimensions and impacts of climate change–related occupational heat concerns on workers’ safety and health, productivity and well-being are often overlooked or relegated as minor issues in social impact analyses of occupational heat exposure due to climate change. This paper offers a conceptual framework based on an appraisal and synthesis of the literature on social impacts of climate change–related occupational heat exposure on workers’ safety and health, productivity and social welfare and the quest to localise and achieve sustainable development goals. A sustained global, national, institutional and individual collaborative involvement and financial support for research, improved adaptation and social protection strategies, predominantly in the developing world, where a large number of people work outdoors, can reduce heat exposure and boost the resilience and adaptive capacity of workers to facilitate efforts to achieve sustainable development goals.
Article
Numerous human thermal climate indices have been proposed. It is a manifestation of the perceived importance of the thermal environment within the scientific community and a desire to quantify it. Schemes used differ in approach according to the number of variables taken into account, the rationale employed, and the particular design for application. They also vary considerably in type and quality, method used to express output, as well as in several other aspects. In light of this, a three-stage project was undertaken to deliver a comprehensive documentation, classification, and overall evaluation of the full range of existing human thermal climate indices. The first stage of the project produced a comprehensive register of as many thermal indices as could be found, 165 in all. The second stage devised a sorting scheme of these human thermal climate indices that grouped them according to eight primary classification categories. This, the third stage of the project, evaluates the indices. Six evaluation criteria, namely validity, usability, transparency, sophistication, completeness, and scope, are used collectively as evaluation criteria to rate each index scheme. The evaluation criteria are used to assign a score that varies between 1 and 5, 5 being the highest. The indices with the highest in each of the eight primary classification categories are discussed. The work is the final stage of a study of the all human thermal climatic indices that could be found in literature. Others have considered the topic, but this study is the first detailed, genuinely comprehensive, and systematic comparison. The results make it simpler to locate and compare indices. It is now easier for users to reflect on the merits of all available thermal indices and decide which is most suitable for a particular application or investigation.
Article
Aims: To identify regional and seasonal patterns of climate at the continental part of the Far East and to study associations between climate discomfort and population health. Methods: Correlation coefficients between climatic indices in January and July and all-cause-, cardiovascular- and respiratory mortality and morbidity were calculated. Results: The overall morbidity was similar to the national average. It was slightly lower for circulatory diseases, but higher for respiratory diseases. In some regions the latter was significantly higher than the national average. Circulatory- and respiratory morbidity was almost twice as high in Chukotka (Far North East) than in the Jewish Autonomous Region (South Far East). At the same time, the low all-cause mortality in Chukotka needs further research. Conclusions: Common and specific patterns of spatial and seasonal variations and their associations with morbidity were observed in the continental part of the Russian Far East. Wet Kata Cooling Power index by Hill seems to be the best indicator of thermal discomfort. Significant correlations between health indicators and thermal discomfort expressed by bioclimatic indices are in line with other studies suggesting links between population health in the Russian Far East and climate. Low all-cause mortality in Chukotka requires further research.
Chapter
According to the Fifth Assessment Report issued by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2014, the average combined land and ocean surface temperature across the globe rose approximately 0.85 °C over the period of time from 1880 to 2012. The 30-year period from 1983 to 2012 was the warmest in the last thirteen centuries. Current climate models predict that global surface temperatures will rise another 0.3–0.7 °C between 2016 and 2035, culminating in a total increase of 1.5–2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century (IPCC, Climate change 2014: synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Meyer LA (eds) Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, 151 pp, 2014). There is a scientific consensus that this change is due to anthropogenic causes, namely, the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and nitrous oxide (NO). The impact of global warming on the environment will potentially be felt in multiple areas, including sea level rises, the spread of disease vectors, and altered severe weather patterns. These and other effects will challenge public health and medical care, among them the field of dermatology. Doctors and other healthcare professionals need to be aware of the risks. Efforts to meet these challenges remain a work in progress (Andersen, Int J Dermatol 51:656–661, 2012).
Article
Increased risk of occupational injuries and illnesses (OI) is associated with hot ambient temperatures. However, the existing evidence of risk estimation is limited to large regions at the city or provincial scales. For effective and localized occupational health risk management, spatio-temporal analysis should be carried out at the intra-city level to identify high-risk areas within cities. This study examined the exposure-response relationship between ambient temperatures and OI at the intra-city scale in Greater Adelaide, Australia. Vulnerable groups of workers, in terms of workers' characteristics, the nature of their work, and workplace characteristics were identified. Further, the projected risk of OI was quantified in various climate change scenarios. The temperature-OI association was estimated using a time-series study design combined with Distributed Lag Non-linear Models. Daily workers' compensation claims (2005–2018) were merged with 5 km gridded meteorological data of maximum temperature (°C) at Statistical Area Level 3 in Greater Adelaide. Region-wise subgroup analyses were conducted to identify vulnerable groups of workers. Future projections (2006–2100) were conducted using downscaled climate projections and the risk was quantified using log-linear extrapolation. The analyses were performed in R 4.1.0. The overall OI risk was 16.7% (95%CI: 10.8–23.0) at moderate heat (90th percentile) and increased to 25.0% (95%CI: 16.4–34.2) at extreme heat (99th percentile). Northern Adelaide had a higher risk of OI for all types of workers at moderate heat, while western regions had a high risk for indoor industries. Southern and eastern regions had a higher OI risk for males, older workers, and outdoor industries at extreme heat. The projected risk of OI is estimated to increase from 20.8% (95%CI: −0.2-46.3) in 2010s to 22.9% (95%CI: −8.0-64.1) by 2050s. Spatio-temporal risk assessment at the intra-city scale can help us identify high-risk areas, where targeted interventions can be efficiently employed to reduce the socio-economic burden of OI.
Article
Introduction. The climatic factors affect the mucous membrane of the respiratory tract contacting with the environment. The investigation of pulmonary ventilation plays a leading role in the diagnosis of bronchial obstruction in response to an external stimulus. Material and methods. The study included a healthy population of the city and patients with chronic catarrhal nonobstructive bronchitis (CCNB), controlled and uncontrolled asthma (131 people). The respiratory function (RF) was estimated by spirography and body plethysmography. Meteorological conditions were evaluated from the point of view of contrasting weather changes (on the survey day, on 1st and 2nd days before the survey). The degree of the climatic impact on RF was determined by the statistical module “Discriminant analysis”, used to a group of RF indices relatively adverse levels of impact of the monsoon climate. Results. The low level of the responsiveness in a healthy urban population was identified. The negative impact of climatic indices on the respiratory system in CCNB patients was observed mainly in extreme weather conditions. The influence of climatic conditions on patients with asthma depends on the level of the disease control. Discussion. The influence of climatic conditions was found to be within the adaptive and compensatory responses in a group of healthy people and CCNB patients. We assumed the use of basic drugs in patients with asthma without signs of bronchial obstruction to reduce the susceptibility of the receptors of the bronchi to the negative climatic impact. The greatest negative RF response to the impact of monsoon climate manifested both in static and in dynamic weather conditions, was observed in patients with uncontrolled asthma. It was associated with the impaired pulmonary ventilation. Conclusion. The results indicate the Far East monsoon climate to be an important risk factor for the exacerbation in patients with respiratory diseases.
Article
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Wet kata cooling power (WKCP) as measured by a kata thermometer is a well-known heat stress index used in the mining industry. Although, over the years, several researchers proposed different heat indices and indicated limitations of the kata thermometer, WKCP is used in the South African gold mining industry due to its simplicity and rapidity of assessment. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the newly developed empirical expression for the WKCP and some of the more commonly used empirical models. For this purpose, WKCP measurements are obtained based on experiments conducted in a low-speed wind tunnel. Based on a regression technique, the analysis presented aims to assess the disagreement between the empirical model predictions and actual measurements. The correlation is also presented between WKCP and the well-established thermoregulation models using parameters from the low-speed wind tunnel experiments, including dry-bulb temperature (Td), wet-bulb temperature (Tw), barometric pressure (P), and wind speed (v). It is found that the proposed empirical model for the WKCP represents the bioclimatic interaction quite well under the specific parameters that defines the harsh thermal environment and air condition, such as metabolic activity, clothing of the person, and the velocity of the ventilating air in which the person is working. The statistical analyses performed show that the empirical model proposed for the WKCP produces satisfactory estimates of the thermal stress experienced under lower air velocities, light clothing, and higher metabolic activity rates.
Chapter
In the last decades, researchers are witnessing an increasing interest among public opinion and global communities regarding outdoor environmental comfort. The number of studies about mitigation strategies for the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon and the effect of climate change in urban areas has considerably increased, as well as those aimed to assess the effectiveness of urban planning strategies (e.g. implementation of vegetation and building orientation) on the urban microclimate and the outdoor comfort [1]. Actually, indoor thermal comfort is a well-established discipline. However, the outdoor environment is far more complex than the indoor environment because of the wide spatial and temporal variations of meteorological variables, hence the need to define suitable models and indices to assess the outdoor thermal comfort. Such models usually refer to a standing person and take into account how human body exchanges heat with the surroundings, according to the mechanisms thoroughly discussed in Chapter 1 of this book. This chapter briefly discusses some of the main models for the evaluation of the outdoor thermal comfort in urban areas, by also showing principles and features of the main related thermal indices. Then, it presents a description of the main software tools nowadays available to simulate the urban micro- climate and to calculate the above-mentioned outdoor comfort indices. For each software tool, the chapter aims to highlight the main advantages and drawbacks, while also providing hints about their reliability according to the existing literature.
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In a series of three companion papers published in this Journal, we identify and validate the available thermal stress indicators (TSIs). In this first paper of the series, we conducted a systematic review (registration: INPLASY202090088) to identify all TSIs and provide reliable information regarding their use (funded by EU Horizon 2020; HEAT-SHIELD). Eight databases (PubMed, Agricultural and Environmental Science Collection, Web of Science, Scopus, Embase, Russian Science Citation Index, MEDLINE, and Google Scholar) were searched from database inception to 15 April 2020. No restrictions on language or study design were applied. Of the 879 publications identified, 232 records were considered for further analysis. This search identified 340 instruments and indicators developed between 200 BC and 2019 AD. Of these, 153 are nomograms, instruments, and/or require detailed non-meteorological information, while 187 can be mathematically calculated utilizing only meteorological data. Of these meteorology-based TSIs, 127 were developed for people who are physically active, and 61 of those are eligible for use in occupational settings. Information regarding the equation, operating range, interpretation categories, required input data, as well as a free software to calculate all 187 meteorology-based TSIs is provided. The information presented in this systematic review should be adopted by those interested in performing on-site monitoring and/or big data analytics for climate services to ensure appropriate use of the meteorology-based TSIs. Studies two and three in this series of companion papers present guidance on the application and validation of these TSIs, to guide end users of these indicators for more effective use.
Article
1. The use of traits is growing in ecology and biodiversity informatics, with initiatives to collate trait data and integrate it into biodiversity databases. A need to develop better predictive capacity for how species respond to environmental change has in part motivated this focus. Functional traits are of most interest—those with a defined link to individual survival, development, growth, and reproduction. 2. Non‐trivial challenges arise immediately in deciding which functional traits to prioritise and how to characterise them. Here we discuss the advantages of a theoretical perspective for defining functional traits in the context of dynamical systems models of energy and mass exchange that link organisms to their environments. We argue that the theoretical frameworks upon which such models are built (biophysical ecology, metabolic theory) provide clear criteria to decide upon functional trait definitions, measurement requirements, and associated metadata, via their mathematical connection to model parameters and state variables, and thus to system performance (survival, development, growth, and reproduction). 3. We distinguish ‘descriptive’ traits from ‘functional’ traits by dividing the latter into four classes—parameter, model, threshold, estimation—according to whether they are model parameters, define model structure, are threshold state variables, or can be used to estimate model parameters. 4. We develop a decision tree for this classification and illustrate it in the context of mammalian heat exchange but emphasise the scheme’s generality to any kind of organism. 5. We show how a theoretical perspective may change how we prioritise traits for collection and databasing in ways that are not necessarily more difficult to achieve, especially with new technologies, and provide clear guidance for requisite metadata. The use of theoretically driven criteria for prioritising the collection of functional trait data will maximise the generality, quality and consistency of trait databases for comparative analyses. Such databases will simultaneously facilitate the development of integrated predictive modelling frameworks across multiple organisational scales from individuals to ecosystems.
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This paper first reviews the health impacts of climate change in Australia. It then examines the current national climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, especially the extent to which they acknowledge and respond to the impacts of climate change on human health and the health sector. Finally, the key elements of a National Strategy for Climate, Health and Well-being are outlined.
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1. Human life is sustainable only below an internal temperature of roughly 42–44°C. Yet our ability to survive at severe environmental extremes is testimony to the marvels of integrative human physiology.2. One approach to understanding human thermoregulatory capacity is to examine the upper limits of thermal balance between man and the air environment, i.e. the maximal environmental conditions under which humans can maintain a steady-state core temperature. Heat acclimation expands the zone of thermal balance.3. Human beings can and do, often willingly, tolerate extreme heat stresses well above these thermal balance limits. Survival in all such cases is limited to abbreviated exposure times, which in turn are limited by the robustness of the thermoregulatory response.4. Figures are provided that relate tolerance time and the rate of change in core temperature to environmental characteristics based on data compiled from the literature.
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Paleontological information was used to evaluate and compare how Rocky Mountain mammalian communities changed during past global warming events characterized by different durations (350, ∼10,000-20,000, and 4 million years) and different per-100-year warming rates (1.0°C, 0.1°C, 0.06-0.08°C, 0.0002-0.0003°C per 100 years). Our goals were to determine whether biotic changes observed today are characteristic of or accelerated relative to what took place during past global warming events and to clarify the possible trajectory of mammalian faunal change that climate change may initiate. This determination is complicated because actual warming rates scale inversely with the time during which temperature is measured, and species with different life-history strategies respond (or do not) in different ways. Nevertheless, examination of past global warming episodes suggested that approximately concurrent with warming, a predictable sequence of biotic events occurs at the regional scale of the central and northern United States Rocky Mountains. First, phenotypic and density changes in populations are detectable within 100 years. Extinction of some species, noticeable changes in taxonomic composition of communities, and possibly reduction in species richness follow as warming extends to a few thousand years. Faunal turnover nears 100% and species diversity may increase when warm temperatures last hundreds of thousands to millions of years, because speciation takes place and faunal changes initiated by a variety of shorter-term processes accumulate. Climate-induced faunal changes reported for the current global warming episode probably do not yet exceed the normal background rate, but continued warming during the next few decades, especially combined with the many other pressures of humans on natural ecosystems, has a high probability of producing effects that have not been experienced often, if ever, in mammalian history.
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This study examined the association between mean daily apparent temperature and hospital admissions for several diseases in nine California counties from May to September, 1999 to 2005. We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study limited to cases with residential zip codes located within 10 km of a temperature monitor. County-specific estimates were combined, using a random effects meta-analysis. The analyses also considered the effects of ozone and particulate matter (PM(2.5)). We found that a 10 degrees F increase in mean apparent temperature was associated with a 3.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-5.6] increase in ischemic stroke and increases in several other disease-specific outcomes including all respiratory diseases (2.0%, 95% CI 0.7-3.2), pneumonia (3.7%, 95% CI 1.7-3.7), dehydration (10.8%, 95% CI 8.3-13.6), diabetes (3.1%, 95% CI 0.4-5.9), and acute renal failure (7.4%, 95% CI 4.0-10.9). There was little evidence that the temperature effects we found were due to confounding by either PM(2.5) or ozone. Our results indicate that increases in ambient temperature have important public health impacts on morbidity.
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During exercise in the heat, sweat output often exceeds water intake, resulting in hypohydration, which is defined as a body fluid deficit. This fluid deficit is comprised of water loss from both the intracellular and extracellular fluid compartments. Hypohydration during exercise causes a greater heat storage and reduces endurance in comparison with euhydration levels. The greater heat storage is attributed to a decreased sweating rate (evaporative heat loss) as well as a decreased cutaneous blood flow (dry heat loss). These response decrements have been attributed to both plasma hyperosmolality and a plasma hypovolemia. Subject gender, acclimation state, and aerobic fitness do not alter the increased heat storage when hypohydrated. Hyperhydration, or body fluid excess, does not seem to provide a clear advantage during exercise-heat stress, but will delay the development of hypohydration.
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Many recreational and elite runners participate in distance races each year. When these events are conducted in hot or cold conditions, the risk of environmental illness increases. However, exertional hyperthermia, hypothermia, dehydration, and other related problems may be minimized with pre-event education and preparation. This position stand provides recommendations for the medical director and other race officials in the following areas: scheduling; organizing personnel, facilities, supplies, equipment, and communication; providing competitor education; measuring environmental stress; providing fluids; and avoiding potential legal liabilities. This document also describes the predisposing conditions, recognition, and treatment of the four most common environmental illnesses: heat exhaustion, heatstroke, hypothermia, and frostbite. The objectives of this position stand are: 1) To educate distance running event officials and participants about the most common forms of environmental illness including predisposing conditions, warning signs, susceptibility, and incidence reduction. 2) To advise race officials of their legal responsibilities and potential liability with regard to event safety and injury prevention. 3) To recommend that race officials consult local weather archives and plan events at times likely to be of low environmental stress to minimize detrimental effects on participants. 4) To encourage race officials to warn participants about environmental stress on race day and its implications for heat and cold illness. 5) To inform race officials of preventive actions that may reduce debilitation and environmental illness. 6) To describe the personnel, equipment, and supplies necessary to reduce and treat cases of collapse and environmental illness.
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We investigated whether fatigue during prolonged exercise in uncompensable hot environments occurred at the same critical level of hyperthermia when the initial value and the rate of increase in body temperature are altered. To examine the effect of initial body temperature [esophageal temperature (Tes) = 35.9 +/- 0.2, 37.4 +/- 0. 1, or 38.2 +/- 0.1 (SE) degrees C induced by 30 min of water immersion], seven cyclists (maximal O2 uptake = 5.1 +/- 0.1 l/min) performed three randomly assigned bouts of cycle ergometer exercise (60% maximal O2 uptake) in the heat (40 degrees C) until volitional exhaustion. To determine the influence of rate of heat storage (0.10 vs. 0.05 degrees C/min induced by a water-perfused jacket), four cyclists performed two additional exercise bouts, starting with Tes of 37.0 degrees C. Despite different initial temperatures, all subjects fatigued at an identical level of hyperthermia (Tes = 40. 1-40.2 degrees C, muscle temperature = 40.7-40.9 degrees C, skin temperature = 37.0-37.2 degrees C) and cardiovascular strain (heart rate = 196-198 beats/min, cardiac output = 19.9-20.8 l/min). Time to exhaustion was inversely related to the initial body temperature: 63 +/- 3, 46 +/- 3, and 28 +/- 2 min with initial Tes of approximately 36, 37, and 38 degrees C, respectively (all P < 0.05). Similarly, with different rates of heat storage, all subjects reached exhaustion at similar Tes and muscle temperature (40.1-40.3 and 40. 7-40.9 degrees C, respectively), but with significantly different skin temperature (38.4 +/- 0.4 vs. 35.6 +/- 0.2 degrees C during high vs. low rate of heat storage, respectively, P < 0.05). Time to exhaustion was significantly shorter at the high than at the lower rate of heat storage (31 +/- 4 vs. 56 +/- 11 min, respectively, P < 0.05). Increases in heart rate and reductions in stroke volume paralleled the rise in core temperature (36-40 degrees C), with skin blood flow plateauing at Tes of approximately 38 degrees C. These results demonstrate that high internal body temperature per se causes fatigue in trained subjects during prolonged exercise in uncompensable hot environments. Furthermore, time to exhaustion in hot environments is inversely related to the initial temperature and directly related to the rate of heat storage.
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One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense precipitation events. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather and climate extremes, which would be exacerbated by climate change. In wild plants and animals, climate-induced extinctions, distributional and phenological changes, and species' range shifts are being documented at an increasing rate. Several apparently gradual biological changes are linked to responses to extreme weather and climate events.
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This study examined whether differences in heat alone, as opposed to public health interventions or other factors, accounted for the reduction in heat-related deaths and paramedic emergency medical service (EMS) runs between 1995 and 1999 during 2 heat waves occurring in Milwaukee, Wis. Two previously described prediction models were adapted to compare expected and observed heat-related morbidity and mortality in 1999 based on the city's 1995 experience. Both models showed that heat-related deaths and EMS runs in 1999 were at least 49% lower than levels predicted by the 1995 relation between heat and heat-related deaths or EMS runs. Reductions in heat-related morbidity and mortality in 1999 were not attributable to differences in heat levels alone. Changes in public health preparedness and response may also have contributed to these reductions.
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Critical environmental limits, defined as those above which heat balance cannot be maintained for a given metabolic heat production, have not been determined for unacclimated subjects. To characterize critical environmental limits and to derive evaporative heat exchange coefficients (K(e)') for unacclimated young men (n = 11) and women (n = 10), subjects of average aerobic fitness walked at 30% maximal aerobic capacity in an environmental chamber. Critical environmental conditions were defined as the psychrometric loci of dry-bulb temperature and water vapor pressure at which core (esophageal) temperature was forced out of equilibrium (heat gain exceeded heat loss). Compared with the men in our study, the women had significantly higher critical environmental limits (P < 0.001) in warm (34-38 degrees C), humid (>60%) environments, a function of their lower absolute metabolic heat production at the fixed relative exercise intensity. Isotherms constructed from biophysical models closely fit the data in this range of environments but underestimated empirically determined critical limits in hotter, drier environments. Sex-specific values of K(e)' were derived by partial calorimetry in the critical water vapor pressure environments, in which full skin wettedness occurred. There were no sex differences for K(e)' (men = 17.4, 15.5, and 14.2 W. m(-2). Torr(-1) and women = 16.8, 15.5, and 14.2 W. m(-2). Torr(-1) at 34, 36, and 38 degrees C, respectively). These K(e)' values were lower than those previously published for fully heat-acclimated men (18.4 W. m(-2). Torr(-1) at 36 degrees C) and women (17.7 W. m(-2). Torr(-1) at 36 degrees C and 15.5 W. m(-2). Torr(-1) at 38 degrees C) and may be used to model heat balance responses for unacclimated men and women working in hot environments.
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To measure the prevalence of obesity in Australian adults and to examine the associations of obesity with socioeconomic and lifestyle factors. AusDiab, a cross-sectional study conducted between May 1999 and December 2000, involved participants from 42 randomly selected districts throughout Australia. Of 20,347 eligible people aged > or = 25 years who completed a household interview, 11,247 attended the physical examination at local survey sites (response rate, 55%). Overweight and obesity defined by body mass index (BMI; kg/m(2)) and waist circumference (cm); sociodemographic factors (including smoking, physical activity and television viewing time). The prevalence of overweight and obesity (BMI > or = 25.0 kg/m(2); waist circumference > 80.0 cm [women] or > or = 94.0 cm [men]) in both sexes was almost 60%, defined by either BMI or waist circumference. The prevalence of obesity was 2.5 times higher than in 1980. Using waist circumference, the prevalence of obesity was higher in women than men (34.1% v 26.8%; P < 0.01). Lower educational status, higher television viewing time and lower physical activity time were each strongly associated with obesity, with television viewing time showing a stronger relationship than physical activity time. The prevalence of obesity in Australia has more than doubled in the past 20 years. Strong positive associations between obesity and each of television viewing time and lower physical activity time confirm the influence of sedentary lifestyles on obesity, and underline the potential benefits of reducing sedentary behaviour, as well as increasing physical activity, to curb the obesity epidemic.
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The purpose of this investigation was to compare the thermoregulatory responses during exercise in a hot climate among three age categories. Eight prepubertal (PP), eight young adult (Y) and eight elderly (O) male subjects cycled at an intensity of 50 +/- 1% of their maximum oxygen uptake (V(O2peak)) for 85 min (three 20 min bouts with three 7 min rest periods) in hot and dry conditions (41 +/- 0.67 degrees C, 21 +/- 1% relative humidity). During the exercise-in-heat protocol, rectal temperature (T(re)) skin temperatures (T(sk)), heart rate (HR), V(O2), V(CO2) V(E), RER, sweat rate, and the number of heat activated sweat glands (HASG) were determined. Despite highest and lowest end-exposure T(re) in the Y and O groups, respectively, the rise in rectal temperature (accounting for differences in baseline T(re)) was similar in all age groups. Changes in body heat storage (DeltaS), both absolute and relative to body mass, were highest in the Y and O groups and lowest in the PP group. While end-session as well as changes in mean skin temperature were similar in all three age groups, HR (absolute and percentage of maximum) was significantly lower for the O compared with the PP and Y groups. Total body as well as per body surface sweating rate was significantly lower for the PP group, while body mass-related net metabolic heat production ((M -- W) kg(-1)) and heat gained from the environment were highest in the PP and lowest in the O group. Since mass-related evaporative cooling (E(sk) kg(-1)) and sweating efficiency (E(sk)/M(sw) kg(-1)) were highest in the PP and lowest in the O group, the mass-dependent heat stored in the body (DeltaS kg(-1)) was lowest in the PP (1.87 +/- 0.03 W kg(-1)) and highest in Y and O groups (2.19 +/- 0.08 and 1.97 +/- 0.11 W kg(-1), respectively). Furthermore, it was calculated that while the O group required only 4.1 +/- 0.5 W of heat energy to raise their body core temperature by 1 degrees C, and the Y group needed 6.9 +/- 0.9 W (1 degrees C)(-1), the PP group required as much as 12.3 +/- 0.7 W to heat up their body core temperature by 1 degrees C. These results suggest that in conditions similar to those imposed during this study, age and age-related characteristics affect the overall rate of heat gain as well as the mechanisms through which this heat is being dissipated. While prepubertal boys seem to be the most efficient thermoregulators, the elderly subjects appear to be the least efficient thermoregulators.
Book
Introduction.- The Skin as a Source of Temperature Signals.- The Inner Body as a Source of Temperature Signals.- The Neuronal Basis of Temperature Reception.- Heat Production and Heat Balance of the Body.- Physics of Heat Exchange with the Environment.- External and Internal Insulation.- The Temperature Field of the Body Core.- Behavioural Control of Heat Exchange with the Environment.- Autonomic Control of Dry Heat Loss from the Skin.- Autonomic Control of Evaporative Heat Loss.- Interaction of Various Body Temperatures in Control of Thermoregulatory Responses.- The Central Interface Between Afferent Temperature Signals and Efferent Drives.- Short-Term Temperature Regulation in Various Environments: Inputs and Responses.- Exercise in the Heat: the Ultimate Challenge.- Changes of Set-Point.- Adaptation to Cold.- Adaptation to Heat - Pathophysiology of Temperature Regulation.- References.- Subject Index.
Article
Many recreational and elite runners participate in distance races each year. When these events are conducted in hot or cold conditions, the risk of environmental illness increases. However, exertional hyperthermia, hypothermia, dehydration, and other related problems may be minimized with pre-event education and preparation. This position stand provides recommendations for the medical director and other race officials in the following areas: scheduling; organizing personnel, facilities, supplies, equipment, and communication; providing competitor education; measuring environmental stress; providing fluids; and avoiding potential legal liabilities. This document also describes the predisposing conditions, recognition, and treatment of the four most common environmental illnesses: heat exhaustion, heatstroke, hypothermia, and frostbite. The objectives of this position stand are: 1) To educate distance running event officials and participants about the most common forms of environmental illness including predisposing conditions, warning signs, susceptibility, and incidence reduction. 2) To advise race officials of their legal responsibilities and potential liability with regard to event safety and injury prevention. 3) To recommend that race officials consult local weather archives and plan events at times likely to be of low environmental stress to minimize detrimental effects on participants. 4) To encourage race officials to warn participants about environmental stress on race day and its implications for heat and cold illness. 5) To inform race officials of preventive actions that may reduce debilitation and environmental illness. 6) To describe the personnel, equipment, and supplies necessary to reduce and treat cases of collapse and environmental illness.
Article
ABSTRACT A deterministic system of models relates man and other vertical objects to horizontal shortwave radiation under cloudless conditions, and permits comparison of actual conditions with an ideal standard. This is the first in a system of increasingly more complex models which will eventually solve the entire energy balance equation in bioclimatology. The parameters examined are concerned with direct solar radiation, diffuse sky radiation, diffuse radiation reflected from the ground, and the total solar heat load on man. Each latitude and each season has its own characteristic pattern of these components, which often differ drastically from data applicable to horizontal surfaces. Depending on the season, direct solar radiation on vertical objects poleward of latitude 30° can exceed several times the amounts incident on an equivalent horizontal surface. Direct solar radiation on vertical objects equatorward of latitude 30° is less than that incident on the horizontal interface.
Article
The transmission spectra of a three-dimensional photonic crystal for various incident angles was examined. When the incident angle is not normal to the surface of the crystal, the direction of the wave vector of light is sensitive to the frequency. In order to compare the experimental band edge with the theoretical band diagram, we calculated the band diagram of the frequency versus the incident angle by converting the ordinary band diagram, which is ordinarily expressed as the diagram of the frequency versus the internal wave vector. As a result of the comparison, the changes of the band edge which was obtained in the experimental transmission measurement agreed well with the theoretical changes. It became clear that the two-step attenuation of transmission which is at large incident angles is caused by the split of the first and the second band edge (also the third and the fourth band edge) at large incident angles. © 2002 American Institute of Physics.
Article
The biggest mass extinction of the past 600 million years (My), the end-Permian event (251 My ago), witnessed the loss of as much as 95% of all species on Earth. Key questions for biologists concern what combination of environmental changes could possibly have had such a devastating effect, the scale and pattern of species loss, and the nature of the recovery. New studies on dating the event, contemporary volcanic activity, and the anatomy of the environmental crisis have changed our perspectives dramatically in the past five years. Evidence on causation is equivocal, with support for either an asteroid impact or mass volcanism, but the latter seems most probable. The extinction model involves global warming by 6°C and huge input of light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system from the eruptions, but especially from gas hydrates, leading to an ever-worsening positive-feedback loop, the ‘runaway greenhouse’.
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How strong a part does water vapor play in global warming?
Article
Rates of evaporation and sweating were recorded for three acclimatized male subjects in hot humid conditions, the ambient parameters of which were set so that the various imposed evaporative rates required the same skin wettedness at different levels of sweating. Rectal and skin temperatures were measured. Results showed that during steady state occurring during the 2nd h of exposure each subject reached the required evaporative rate by means of increases in skin wettedness regardless of the level of sweating; the sweat evaporative efficiency, defined as the ratio between evaporative rate and sweat rate, decreased as skin wettedness increased, in a range between 0.74 and 1.0 Sweat efficiency fell to 0.67 for fully wet skin. The body temperatures did not increase with time if skin wettedness was less than unity. Evaporative heat transfer coefficient (he), maximum evaporative capacity, and wettedness were estimated on the basis of the observed decrease of sweat efficiency. The relationship between skin wettedness and sweat efficiency was interpreted as a combined effect of differences in local he as well as in local sweat rates.
Article
Ten heat-acclimated females exercised seminude on a treadmill at 30% Vo2 max (M=152 W-m-2) under eight air temperatures (Ta) ranging from 30 degrees C to 52 degrees C. Each experiment involved 1 h of fixed and a 2nd h of progressively increasing water vapor pressure (Pw) with either air movement of 1 m-s-1 or still air. The equilibrium values of rectal temperature (Tre), mean skin temperature (Tsk),and heart rate (HR) reached in the 1st h were forced upwards in the 2nd h by the rising Pw. The critical Pw was defined by the Tre inflection point for each Ta. The loci of the critical Pw were used to delineate the thermal limits on the psychrometric chart and were used to derive the effective evaporative coefficient (Ke') applicable to the ambient capacity for evaporative cooling (Emax). The derived Ke' was 17.6 +/- 4.2 W-m-2 (mean +/- SD) for v0.6m-s-1. Isotherms constructed on the basis of the obtained Ké, Tsk, and sweating capacity were higher than the physiologically based Pw limits.
Article
The technique of indirect calorimetry is now widely used to examine rates of energy production and substrate oxidation in humans. Although the basic principles of indirect calorimetry are well established, it is important to recognize that there are several potential pitfalls in the methodology and data interpretation that must be appreciated to properly understand and apply the results derived from this technique. In particular, one must recognize that the fundamental measurement provided by indirect calorimetry is the net disappearance rate of a substrate regardless of the metabolic interconversions that the substrate may undergo before its disappearance from its metabolic pool. Under most circumstances, direct oxidation represents the major route by which a substrate disappears from its metabolic pool, and the two terms are often used interchangeably. However, under conditions when rates of gluconeogenesis, ketogenesis, or lipogenesis are elevated, the presumed equivalence between oxidation and disappearance may no longer apply, even though the actual measurements derived from indirect calorimetry remain valid. When indirect calorimetry is combined with other in vivo metabolic techniques (e.g., the insulin clamp or radioisotope turnover methods) it can provide a powerful tool for noninvasively examining complex metabolic processes.
Two series of experiments were performed in physically untrained subjects. In series A (heat adaptation, HA), seven male subjects were adapted to dry heat (five consecutive days at 55 degrees C ambient air temperature (Ta) for 1 h X day-1) under resting conditions. Before and after HA, the subjects' shivering responses were determined in a cold test (Ta + 10 to 0 degrees C). In series B, eight male subjects underwent mild exercise training (five consecutive days at a heart rate, HR, of 120 b X min-1) under Ta conditions individually adjusted (Ta + 15 to +5 degrees C) to prevent both sweating and cold sensations. Before and after "sweatless training", the subjects were subjected to a combined cold and heat test. During HA the thresholds for shivering, cutaneous vasodilatation (thumb and forearm) and sweating were shifted significantly (p less than 0.05) towards lower mean body temperatures (Tb). The mean decrease in threshold Tb was 0.36 degrees C. "Sweatless training" resulted in a mean increase in work rate (at HR 120 b X min-1) and oxygen pulse of 13 and 8%, respectively. However, "sweatless training" did not change the threshold Tb for shivering or sweating. Neither HA nor "sweatless training" changed the slopes of the relationships of shivering and sweating to Tb. It is concluded that the previously reported lowering of shivering and sweating threshold Tb in long-distance runners is not due to an increased fitness level, but is essentially identical with HA. The decreased shivering threshold following HA is interpreted as "cross adaptation" produced by the stressors cold and heat.
A method is devised where evaporation and dripping sweat rates can be continuously determined during work. 6 unacclimatized men performed work on a bicycle ergometer at 3 different workloads and in 3 humidities. Ambient temperatures were always equal to mean skin temperatures, thus eliminating all sensible heat transfer. Evaporation rates ranged between 6.8 and 11.2 g X min-1. Rates of dripping sweat ranged from a mean of 2.2 to 10.4 g X min-1. One subject dripped 20.3 g X min-1 in condition H3 (70% RH, 100 W). The fully wet skin in condition H3 corresponded to an evaporative heat transfer coefficient of 99 W X m-2 kPa. Efficiency of sweating, defined as the ratio between secreted and evaporated sweat, ranged from 87 (50% RH, 50 W) to 51% (70% RH, 100 W). Corresponding values of wettedness were 0.56 and 1.0. Efficiency fell to 51% for fully wet skin (H3), and in some subjects the efficiency values were remarkably low. One subject displayed an efficiency of 31% in condition H3. The reduction in efficiency at a given level of wettedness was higher than previously reported.
Article
The problem of setting environmental limits for everyday work is a difficult one. The basis for setting such limits seems clearly established and stems from the well established fact that during exercise the body temperature is principally a function of the rate of work and is almost independent of environmental influence over a wide range of climates. But once the climate reaches a critical level of heat stress, it causes the body temperature to rise above the level set by the rate of work. That critical level has been called the upper limit of the prescriptive zone and is variable depending on the rate of work - the higher the rate of metabolism is, the lower is the critical heat stress which represents the upper limit of the prescriptive zone. As always, when men work in different climates, there are many factors that can affect the physiological responses - the influences of the rate of work, the degree of acclimatization, the individual variation, the duration of exposure, the age of the men concerned are the main aspects that have been studied. These findings have been discussed and a 'unifying' concept is presented that much of the data support. However, there are some results which do not support it, and the reason remains obscure. Also, other factors, such as sex, dehydration, clothing, and the like remain to be evaluated.