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Topics in applied econometrics / Kenneth F. Wallis
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This paper presents a model of industrialization through rural–urban interdependence. It shows how an economy with a low cost share of industrial inputs in agricultural production and a low expenditure share of manufactured goods, together with a limited variety of industrial inputs, can be caught in a low development trap. By escaping from the trap the economy moves toward more roundabout methods of agricultural production, mass consumption of manufactured goods, and urbanization. The transition from the low development trap to industrialization is consistent with the historical evidence on Japan.
This is an empirical and historical study of the dynamics of technological innovation (TI) in the pharmaceutical industry from its establishment at the beginning of the 19th century to 1990. It is based on the identification and evaluation of the originality and commercial significance of 1736 product innovations (new medicines) commercialized between 1800 and 1990, and on company economic data for the period 1950–1990. The study is presented in the framework of established macroeconomic theory of technical change.Applying both empirical and historical evidence, the study: (a) identifies the technological, social and economic driving forces for TI; (b) examines the relation between originality and market performance of medicinal innovations; (c) studies the mechanisms of the diffusion of medicinal technologies that led to the formation of five successive generations of drugs (long waves); (d) describes the structural changes forced on the pharmaceutical industry by the introduction and development of each successive generation of drugs; (e) provides evidence of the concentration of the innovative segment of the pharmaceutical industry among few large companies, which sustained high levels of growth and R&D expenditures by means of inhouse innovation, technological and therapeutic market specialization, and mergers and acquisitions of companies within and outside the pharmaceutical industry; and (f) shows that the localization of the innovative segment of the pharmaceutical industry in the USA, UK, Germany, Switzerland and France was caused by the influence of national environments on the intensities of the driving forces for TI.
One of the standard criticisms of the St. Louis reduced form approach has been their failure to provide a sound theoretical base to the proposition that nominal income is primarily determined by the money stock and government fiscal measures. In this respectAnderson in a recent article [1975] attempts to set out a theoretical model with empirical conclusions to justify this proposition. The theoretical properties of this model have a close similarity to the empirical estimates found in previous St. Louis studies, seeAnderson/Jordan [1968] andAnderson/Carlson [1970], and perhaps not surprisingly an empirical analysis for the U.S., for the period 1955(I)–1973 (IV), fails to reject the theory. In this paper we briefly portray the theoretical flavour of the Anderson model. Secondly we consider certain estimation problems and test for the existence of such a relationship for the U.K. Thirdly we examine the forecasting ability of the model with respect to nominal income, private expenditure, nominal imports and the velocity of circulation. Finally we examine the dynamic properties of the model and conclude on its overall performance.
The main purpose of this paper is to test the substitution hypothesis of saving for the case of Life Assurance and Pension Funds (LAPF) on the one hand, and other (personal and corporate) savings on the other. The focus is the postwar U.K. period. Earlier U.K. findings on this issue rejected the substitution hypothesis. Most, in particular time series studies though, are subject to various limitations : that is, they focused on a very short period of time : made an uncritical use of the official data, that may cast doubt on their results : estimated consumption functions, which do not explicitly allow the testing of the effects of LAPF on other than personal savings too, such as corporate retentions : finally, confined their attention to - in most cases - one specification of the consumption function.
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That demand‐side deficiencies can provide an inducement for outward investment by transnational corporations has never acquired much currency, despite its long history and the fact that existing theories ofter have implications supportive of it. Arguably a reason for this is that the idea has never been tested empirically. In this paper we provide the first such empirical test. First we critically survey and attempt to synthesize the mainstream microeconomic or supply‐side theories of the TNC. Then we examine the case for a demand‐side perspective, link this to the supply‐side and discuss some existing indirect evidence in support of this perspective. Finally we provide a direct econometric test of the demand‐side perspective, which provides clear support for it.
The idea of (ultra) rationality in the context of changes in corporate and/or government savings stimulating offsetting responses in household savings has been the subject of theoretical and empirical controversy. This paper provides fresh evidence of the (ultra) rationality hypothesis, in the context of a generalized version of the life-cycle hypothesis of saving, for the case of the UK. The results suggest partial personal savings adjustment to government and corporate saving changes in the short and (to a lesser extent) the long run. This has important implications on the issues of 'rationality', 'fiscal policy' and financial capital accumulation. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester, 2004.
The effects of individual economic incentives are modified by social interactions among cooperating members of an organization such as the firm. An economic theory of such interaction, based on individual rationality or utility maximization, is briefly outlined, and various hypotheses on the effects of profit-sharing, piece-rates, and employee participation in decision-making are derived. These hypotheses are tested on data collected from smaller West German firms with various participation and profit-sharing schemes, independent of legal co-determination requirements. The predicted positive effect of participation, and of profit-sharing combined with participation on productivity is confirmed, in contrast to received theory.
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