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The X-factor: A longitudinal study of calibration in young novice drivers

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It is often assumed that young novice drivers overestimate their driving skills and underestimate the risks in traffic; and therefore insufficiently adapt their driving behaviour (e.g. speed or headway) to the specific situation. This balancing of skills and task demands has been called calibration. To study if improved calibration can explain the decreasing crash risk in the first years of the driving career, 500 young novice drivers completed questionnaires and kept a driving diary during two years (from the moment of licensing). The results indicate that, although drivers are less positive about their driving skills than has been previously thought, young novice drivers indeed overestimate their driving skills more than experienced drivers. In addition the results show that overestimation of driving skills correlates with self reported unsafe driving behaviour, such as more violations and less adaptation of driving behaviour (speed) to the specific situation. However, the study did not find evidence that calibration skills of young novice drivers improved in the first two years of the driving career. Therefore it is still uncertain how these skills are developed and if they can be taught in driver training. Until we have a better understanding of how driving experience works, and which aspects are important for reducing crash risk, we can only let drivers gain as much experience as possible in the most safe environment. This can be achieved with constricting drivers’ privileges (e.g. by limiting the number of passengers or restricting driving after dark), or by introducing a period of accompanied driving after licensing.
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... Young people with insufficient driving experience underestimate risk (ie, novice drivers show less awareness of the real hazards of the road environment), overestimate their driving skills (they consider they have mastered all the necessary driving skills) and do not adapt their driving behaviour to the demands of the specific traffic situation (eg, excessive speed, small safety margins, unsafe following-distances, aggressive driving, risky manoeuvres and engaging in secondary behaviours such as making a phone call). [3][4][5][6] Efforts should be made to raise the awareness of novice drivers about the danger of overconfidence in their driving skills. For instance, training after obtaining their driving licence should be contemplated to help fully develop their driving skills. ...
... Risky decision-making (RDM) can have a number of causes including an inability to understand the level of danger their actions place them in, over-confidence in their own abilities, sensation seeking, and an incorrect assessment of the advantages and costs of taking that risk. 3,5 In hazard awareness tests, hazardous situations are typically provoked by the actions of another road user (eg, a delivery driver half-hidden by their vehicle suddenly crosses the road). In this sense they can be considered as "passive" hazards. ...
... There has in fact been considerable investigation of this issue, looking at young/novice drivers' balancing of skills and task demands that has been defined as calibration: young/novice drivers overrate their driving skills and undervalue the risks of driving, and therefore fail to adapt their driving behaviour sufficiently to the actual driving scenarios "(eg, excessive speeding, gap acceptance problems or reckless overtaking)". 3,5 Training should address this calibration issue and ensure that risk inoculation is included with training to help nondrivers to anticipate hazards (see, for instance, the "online hazard perception training course for drivers"). By upskilling drivers while constantly reminding them of the risk and dangers of driving (in relation to their newly found skills), we might avoid the increase in risk that comes with untethered increases in confidence. ...
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Introduction Traffic collisions are a principal cause of death in Europe, disproportionately affecting young drivers. Driving safety depends not only on our ability to anticipate and respond to dangers on the road but also on the level of risk we are willing to engage within our own driving behaviour. Methods Hazard prediction (HPr) and risky decision-making (RDM) tests were given to three groups of young Spaniards (169 participants): 54 non-drivers (M=20), 65 novice (M=21) and, 50 experienced drivers (M=26 years old). Both tests presented participants with video clips of driving recorded from the driver’s perspective. The HPr test contained hazardous situations caused by the actions of another road user (eg, a pedestrian crossing the road). Each HPr clip was occluded as a hazard began to unfold and participants were asked to predict “what happens next?” They selected their answer from four on-screen options. The RDM test used clips where any imminent danger would be provoked by the film-car driver’s risky behaviour (eg, overtaking illegally). Participants were asked to report the probability of following certain types of risky behaviour (eg, “Would you go forward with the lights on amber?” or “Would you overtake the cyclist/lorry/bus at this point?”). In addition, the effect of the locality of the driving scenarios was manipulated: they could take place in the participant’s native country (Spain) or in a different country (UK). Results Non-drivers and novice drivers were less able to predict upcoming hazards and more likely to make risky decisions. Driving scenarios from another country (UK) provoked riskier decisions than those from the participants’ home country (Spain). Conclusion Improvement in HPr skills among novice or new drivers poses a huge challenge as far as driver training is concerned, though it is only part of the solution. Young inexperienced drivers’ willingness to engage in risky behaviour also needs to be tackled. Our results suggest that such RDM can be assessed in a similar way to HPr skill, using a naturalistic approach, which raises the possibility of assessing and training drivers on a wider range of safety-related behaviours.
... Appropriate calibration is an important aspect to safe driving (Kuiken & Twisk, 2001). Theories of demand regulation such as the task compatibility and interface model (TACM) state that drivers adjust their behaviors to balance driving demands with their self-assessed abilities (De Craen, 2010;Fuller, 2005). To engage in a successful and safe drive, drivers must be able to not only regulate their task demands with their own abilities but also have an accurate estimate of both. ...
... Young drivers overestimate their driving abilities to a greater extent than experienced drivers (De Craen, 2010;Gregersen, 1996;Horrey et al., 2015;Matthews & Moran, 1986). Additionally, a longitudinal study found that drivers' calibration did not improve during the first 2 years of their driving, suggesting that they continued to overestimate their abilities even with 2 years of driving experience (De Craen, 2010). ...
... Young drivers overestimate their driving abilities to a greater extent than experienced drivers (De Craen, 2010;Gregersen, 1996;Horrey et al., 2015;Matthews & Moran, 1986). Additionally, a longitudinal study found that drivers' calibration did not improve during the first 2 years of their driving, suggesting that they continued to overestimate their abilities even with 2 years of driving experience (De Craen, 2010). This miscalibration is particularly dangerous for young drivers, as overestimation of driving skills is thought to be correlated with a high crash risk of young drivers (Gregersen, 1996;Matthews & Moran, 1986). ...
Article
Objective The present study examines the effect of an existing driver training program, FOrward Concentration and Attention Learning (FOCAL) on young drivers’ calibration, drivers’ ability to estimate the length of their in-vehicle glances while driving, using two different measures, normalized difference scores and Brier Scores. Background Young drivers are poor at maintaining attention to the forward roadway while driving a vehicle. Additionally, drivers may overestimate their attention maintenance abilities. Driver training programs such as FOCAL may train target skills such as attention maintenance but also might serve as a promising way to reduce errors in drivers’ calibration of their self-perceived attention maintenance behaviors in comparison to their actual performance. Method Thirty-six participants completed either FOCAL or a Placebo training program, immediately followed by driving simulator evaluations of their attention maintenance performance. In the evaluation drive, participants navigated four driving simulator scenarios during which their eyes were tracked. In each scenario, participants performed a map task on a tablet simulating an in-vehicle infotainment system. Results FOCAL-trained drivers maintained their attention to the forward roadway more and reported better calibration using the normalized difference measure than Placebo-trained drivers. However, the Brier scores did not distinguish the two groups on their calibration. Conclusion The study implies that FOCAL has the potential to improve not only attention maintenance skills but also calibration of the skills for young drivers. Application Driver training programs may be designed to train not only targeted higher cognitive skills but also driver calibration—both critical for driving safety in young drivers.
... Driving Anxiety score (1)(2)(3)(4)(5): The driving anxiety score is based on the respondents' answers to the question "Were you scared to drive a car when you started your driving lessons?" (not at all (1), barely (2), a little (3), quite (4), very much (5)). Self-Assessment violations and errors task difficulty driving anxiety comparison of skills accidents/1,000km ...
... (1) drive more than 10 km/h faster than the speed limit inside city limits, (2) use your mobile phone to read/send a text, (3) (intentionally) crossed a red light, (4) drive after drinking alcohol, (5) drive without using the safety belt. Respondents could choose between seven answers: (1) never (score = 0), (2) rarely -less than one time a month (score = 1), (3) sometimes -approximately once a month (score = 2), (4) frequently -approximately once a week (score = 3), (5) very frequently -multiple times a week (score = 4), (6) almost every time I drive (score = 5), and (7) I cannot remember. The score is calculated for the first six months, second six months, first year and last twelve months of driving. ...
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Highlights • Learning the value of hazard awareness training and testing for driving education. • Results from 2,879 respondents show safe driving effects for driving education. • Significant correlations between simulator performance scores, on-road training hours, exam attempts, and self-reported violations and errors after licensing. • Females are more risk-aware than males.
... Furthermore, overconfidence among drivers makes them less likely to adapt their behavior to traffic situations, leading to even more violations of traffic rules (De Craen, 2010;Isler et al., 2008). The question of overestimated driver's self-appreciation also reflects the impact of traffic safety campaigns: why people who overestimate their skills should pay attention to the instructions given to drivers in general since they are safer and drive better than these drivers? ...
... That is, the more the person positively self-assessed, the more Aggressive Violations and Ordinary Violations he / she committed. The literature shows that overconfidence among drivers causes them more difficulty in adapting their behavior to traffic situations, leading to more violations of traffic rules (De Craen, 2010;Isler et al., 2008). Therefore, it is possible to perceive that inflated self-assessment can cause concrete risks to people, because if the person believes to be a better driver, have the tendency to commit violations of traffic laws and aggressive behavior and endanger the lives of others as a result. ...
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This study aims to verify the self-evaluation that people make about their ability to drive and investigate whether there is a difference between self-evaluation and evaluation about their friends’ abilities. To this end, 151 people answered three different questionnaires, one questionnaire about driving abilities (self-evaluation and evaluation of friends), the Driver’s Behavior Questionnaire and a socio-demographic questionnaire The sample consisted of 50.3% of males with a mean age of 25.32 years (sd = 1.66). As a result, self-evaluation was positively correlated with age, evaluation of friend, weekly driving hours, Common Violations, and Aggressive Violations. In addition, there was significant difference between evaluation by sex: males carry out self-assessments in a more positive way. It was also found that people evaluate themselves better than they evaluate their friends. From this research, it is possible to think the target audience that would most benefit from an intervention to reduce self-evaluation, that is, men, people over 24 years old, and people who have more driving experience.
... They require special research because they have a higher tendency to cause accidents. The literature states that young drivers should drive at least 100,000 km over seven years to reach the level of an advanced driver [14][15][16]. There are many research methods that can be used, which are listed, for example, in [17] and used and described in [18,19]. ...
... Rarely/Never, 2-Occasionally, 3-Often, 4-Always/Always 1 11. I "squirm" at plays or lectures.15. I like to think about complex problems. ...
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This paper focuses on the statistical evaluation of two independent research tools in the field of traffic psychology. Our research focuses on young drivers in the Slovak Republic and conducts an international comparison. At present, these young drivers make up only about 7% of the total number of drivers, but they cause about 20% of accidents. The paper analyzes the traffic accident rate of young as well as inexperienced drivers. All drivers in the survey had a short period of driving experience. The traffic-psychological survey obtained detailed data via two independent tools. We aimed to find relations between the factors and subfactors of the tools used, namely the BIS-11 (Barratt Impulsiveness Scale) and DAQ (Driver Attitude Questionnaire). The researchers also used these tools in other countries, so it was possible to compare the results obtained. The results from these tools should reveal the psychological causes of as many traffic accidents as possible. Our paper shows the possibilities for the evaluation of the tools used with correlation analysis. The results of our research are shown in symmetrical matrixes of correlation coefficients. Our study also compares its values with the results of foreign authors. Such research has revealed some facts about young drivers’ violations connected with drunk driving, speeding, and other traffic offenses. Our aim was to find connections between the driver’s history (skills, traffic accidents, age, etc.) and psychological characteristics, and we have answered several research questions. In conclusion, we have highlighted the most significant relationships between the factors of driver psychology.
... Not all drivers perceive the same level of risk in a given situation nor do they evaluate their ability to handle it in the same way. There are various reasons for risky decision-making, such as failure to understand the degree of danger of one's actions, overconfidence in one's abilities, thrill seeking and an erroneous assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of making a risky decision (De Craen, 2010;Kuiken & Twisk, 2001). ...
... Further research should also explore the potential relationship between increases in cognition as a result of improved mood after physical activity, and how this potential relationship may impact driving performance (Strasser & Fuchs, 2015). Additionally, exploring the impact of prolonged sitting on cognition related to driver calibration should be a future research direction (De Craen, 2010). Driver calibration is the concept of how well a driver is able to align their self-assessments of driving performance to their actual driving ability, and relies on attention and information processing abilities by the driver (Unverricht et al., 2020). ...
... This tendency to perceive oneself as more capable and less prone to suffer crashes than one's peers can result in fewer prudent behaviours and more dangerous behaviours behind the wheel (Padilla et al, 2018;White, Cunningham & Titchener, 2011). The classic literature affirmed that young drivers do not adapt their behaviour to the demands of traffic (e.g. they drive above the speed limit, leave little distance between themselves and the vehicle ahead of them, drive aggressively and engage in risky behaviours, such as using a cell phone while driving) (De Craen, 2010, Engström et al., 2003Kuiken & Twisk, 2001). According to Horrey et al., (2015), driver estimations of their abilities are often inflated or erroneous. ...
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Tesla's Full Self-Driving Beta (FSD) program introduces technology that extends the operational design domain of standard Autopilot from highways to urban roads. This research conducted 103 in-depth semi-structured interviews with users of Tesla's FSD Beta and standard Autopilot to evaluate the impact on user behavior and perception. It was found that drivers became complacent over time with Autopilot engaged, failing to monitor the system, and engaging in safety-critical behaviors, such as hands-free driving, enabled by weights placed on the steering wheel, mind wandering, or sleeping behind the wheel. Drivers' movement of eyes, hands, and feet became more relaxed with experience with Autopilot engaged. FSD Beta required constant supervision as unfinished technology, which increased driver stress and mental and physical workload as drivers had to be constantly prepared for unsafe system behavior (doing the wrong thing at the worst time). The hands-on wheel check was not considered as being necessarily effective in driver monitoring and guaranteeing safe use. Drivers adapt to automation over time, engaging in potentially dangerous behaviors. Some behavior seems to be a knowing violation of intended use (e.g., weighting the steering wheel), and other behavior reflects a misunderstanding or lack of experience (e.g., using Autopilot on roads not designed for). As unfinished Beta technology, FSD Beta can introduce new forms of stress and can be inherently unsafe. We recommend future research to investigate to what extent these behavioral changes affect accident risk and can be alleviated through driver state monitoring and assistance.
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