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It is generally assumed that in order to survive, people
and animals need to extract contingency information from
the environment. Doing this allows them to infer causal
relations and to predict when important events will occur,
which in turn allows them to prepare for these outcomes
(see, e.g., Dickinson, 1980; Hollis, 1997). The large num-
ber of experiments on contingency learning that have been
published during the last decades (see Shanks, 2007, for
a recent review) are justified precisely on these premises.
Contingency learning is critical for survival because it ul-
timately allows organisms to prepare for important events.
A functional analysis of contingency learning, therefore,
calls for the investigation of preparatory behavior. Thus,
the scant attention that preparatory judgments have cap-
tured in the research community is highly surprising. Pre-
paratory judgments are not just one more additional type
of judgment. They are the judgments that most naturally
show the function that has traditionally been attributed to
contingency learning. Indeed, if preparing for outcomes
provides the function of contingency learning, then one
would expect preparatory behavior to be closely depen-
dent on contingency information. Quite surprisingly, the
(little) data available on preparatory judgments suggest
otherwise.
The most commonly used metric of contingency is ΔP,
which is the difference between the probability of the out-
come when the cue is present, p(O|C), and the probability
of the outcome when the cue is absent, p(O|¬C) (Jenkins
& Ward, 1965). The experimenter can manipulate the
strength of the cue–outcome contingency by varying the
frequencies with which the cue (e.g., a fictitious medi-
cine) and the outcome (e.g., a fictitious allergic reaction)
occur or do not occur together. Interestingly, some reports
have suggested that these contingency manipulations
have a different effect on causal judgments than on pre-
dictive and preparatory judgments. For example, Vadillo,
Miller, and Matute, (2005; see also Vadillo & Matute,
2007) showed that contingency information had no im-
pact on participants’ likelihood of predicting the outcome
in the presence of the cue. At the same time, however,
participants in those studies showed an accurate use of
contingency information to estimate both the causal and
the predictive value of the cue. Thus, apparently, people
use contingency to infer causal and predictive value, even
though they do not use it to predict the likelihood that the
outcome will follow.
In a related study, De Houwer, Vandorpe, and Beckers
(2007) showed that contingency information was used to
make accurate estimates of causal relations, whereas it
had little impact on participants’ stating that they would
prepare for the outcome when the cue was present. Con-
sistent with the findings of Vadillo et al. (2005) regarding
outcome predictions, p(O|C) seemed to be the main deter-
minant of preparatory judgments as well.
At least at first glance, those results seem quite con-
trary to the idea that opened the present article—that
contingency knowledge is needed both to predict the oc-
currence of important events and to prepare for them.
From a normative point of view, it certainly does make
sense to neglect the value of contingency when making
predictions. After all, the value of p(O|C) is the only
thing one needs to know when predicting whether the
outcome will follow the cue. Information on p(O|¬C)
becomes absolutely irrelevant in this case. But the poten-
tial dissociation between contingency and preparatory
behavior is not that obvious. On the one hand, prepara-
tory judgments, like predictions, could simply rely on
p(O|C). People could prepare for the outcome whenever
117 © 2010 The Psychonomic Society, Inc.
Contingency is used to prepare for outcomes:
Implications for a functional analysis of learning
Fe r n a n d o Bl a n c o , He l e n a Ma t u t e , a n d Mi g u e l a. V a d i l l o
Deusto University, Bilbao, Spain
It is generally assumed that the function of contingency learning is to predict the occurrence of important
events in order to prepare for them. This assumption, however, has scarcely been tested. Moreover, the little evi-
dence that is available suggests just the opposite result. People do not use contingency to prepare for outcomes,
nor to predict their occurrence, although they do use it to infer the causal and predictive value of cues. By using
both judgmental and behavioral data, we designed the present experiments as a further test for this assumption.
The results show that—at least under certain conditions—people do use contingency to prepare for outcomes,
even though they would still not use it to predict their occurrence. The functional and adaptive aspects of these
results are discussed in the present article.
Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
2010, 17 (1), 117-121
doi:10.3758/PBR.17.1.117
H. Matute, matute@fice.deusto.es
118 Bl a n c o , Mat u t e , a n d Va d i l l o
has not taken Dugetil and a picture of a bottle crossed in red were
shown. To encourage their attention, participants had to answer the
question Do you think that Mr. X is going to develop a skin rash?
by clicking the “yes” or “no” button in every trial. Then, a feedback
panel showed either the phrase Mr. X has developed the skin rash
and a picture of an ill face (outcome-present trials), or the phrase
Mr. X has not developed the skin rash and a picture of a healthy face
(outcome-absent trials).
At test, every participant emitted three different judgments:
a causal judgment (To what extent do you think that Dugetil is the
cause of the skin rash that Mr. X suffers?), a prediction judgment
(If Mr. X has taken Dugetil, to what extent do you think that he will
develop a skin rash?), and a preparation judgment (If Mr. X has taken
Dugetil, to what extent would you recommend him to take an oint-
ment in order to prevent a skin rash?). The three questions were dis-
played simultaneously, with their position (upper, middle, or lower
panel of the screen) counterbalanced between participants. A rating
scale ranging from 0 (labeled Definitely NOT ) to 100 (labeled Defi-
nitely YES) was displayed below each question.
Results
Figure 1 depicts the mean judgments at test. As was ex-
pected, a 3 (question) 3 2 (contingency) ANOVA showed
significant main effects of question [F(2,98) 5 27.10, p ,
.001] and contingency [F(1,49) 5 17.07, p , .001], as well
as an interaction [F(2,98) 5 6.14, p , .01]. Both causal
and preparatory judgments were significantly higher in
Group High than in Group Low [t(49) 5 6.46, p , .001,
and t(49) 5 2.41, p , 0.05, respectively]. This indicates
that both of these judgments were affected by contingency.
Prediction judgments did not significantly differ as a func-
tion of contingency [t(49) 5 1.28, p 5 .21].
EXPERIMENT 2
As was expected, in Experiment 1 we showed that both
causal and preparatory judgments, but not predictions,
were affected by contingency information. The results of
the causal and prediction judgments were consistent with
those of several previous human studies (e.g., Gredebäck
et al., 2000; Matute et al., 2002; Vadillo et al., 2005; Va-
dillo & Matute, 2007). However, the results on prepara-
tory judgments, although expected, contradicted the null
they know it will occur. On the other hand, however,
it is not clear that the most adaptive behavior that one
can adopt when preparing for an outcome should rely
simply on p(O|C). If the outcome is occurring with the
same probability regardless of whether the target cue is
present or absent, this becomes a situation in which the
outcome follows the cue regularly, but without any pre-
dictive relation between them. The cue is not a signal for
the outcome, but a completely unrelated event. In this
situation, organisms should look for another cue with
greater predictive value to help them decide when to act,
or else they will have to be preparing at all times for any
of the many possible outcomes that could follow any of
the millions of cues that are present at any given time.
There are so many potential outcomes for which there
are no known causes (or good signals) that it becomes
impossible to prepare for them all. Thus, when prepar-
ing for outcomes, it might be much more efficient to
rely on the predictive value of the cue, which depends on
contingency, rather than on p(O|C). Indeed, if any con-
clusion can be drawn from decades of related research
on Pavlovian conditioning, it is that nonhuman animals
do use contingency to prepare for outcomes (Rescorla,
1968). As for human preparatory Pavlovian responses,
we know of no study that has tested whether they rely on
cue–outcome contingency rather than on p(O|C).
In sum, further evidence is needed before we can reject
(or accept) the general assumption that people use con-
tingency information to prepare for outcomes. Although
several studies have shown a dissociation between causal
judgments and predictions (e.g., Gredebäck, Winman,
& Juslin, 2000; Matute, Vegas, & De Marez, 2002; Va-
dillo et al., 2005; Vadillo & Matute, 2007), the evidence
of the dissociation between contingency and preparatory
judgments relies on only one study (De Houwer et al.,
2007). Moreover, none of the aforementioned studies has
explored the effects of contingency information on both
outcome predictions and preparatory judgments. If our
hypothesis is correct, then preparatory judgments, not
predictions, might show sensitivity to contingency.
EXPERIMENT 1
Method
Participants
. Fifty-one college students voluntarily took part in
the study. A random assignment of participants into two groups re-
sulted in 24 participants in Group High, and 27 in Group Low.
Procedure and Design
. Participants were told to imagine that
they were physicians who were trying to find out whether a relation-
ship existed between a cue (a fictitious medicine, Dugetil) and an
outcome (a side effect—skin rash—in a fictitious patient).
p(O|C) was 1 in both groups, but p(O|¬C) was .5 in Group High
and 1 in Group Low. Therefore, Δp was .5 in Group High and 0
in Group Low. This should permit us to compare the sensitivity of
causal, prediction, and preparation judgments to specific manipula-
tions of covariational information. Judgments that are only sensitive
to p(O|C) should not differ between these two groups, but judgments
that are sensitive to Δp should.
Participants received 120 medical cards, 1 per trial. In cue- present
trials, the computer screen showed the phrase Mr. X has taken Dug-
etil and a picture of a pill bottle. In cue-absent trials, the phrase Mr. X
0
25
50
75
100
Causal Prediction Preparatory
Mean Judgments
Type of Question
Group High
Group Low
Figure 1. Mean judgments in Experiment 1. Error bars repre-
sent 1 standard error of the mean.
co n t i n g e n c y , Pr e d i c t i o n , a n d Pr e P a r a t i o n 119
spaceships invade the screen faster than usual (one spaceship every
50 msec). These invasions cannot be escaped once started. Thus, to
avoid them, participants have to suppress their barpressing behavior
immediately before the shield is connected. Participants are also
told that there will be some cues that sometimes may (or may not)
be followed by the activation of the shield. If participants learn that
a cue is a good predictor of the shield, then they should respond to
this cue by suppressing their barpressing behavior in anticipation
of the outcome. Suppression ratios are conventionally assessed as
A/ (A 1 B), where A is the number of barpresses during the cue and
B the number of barpresses in a period of time identical to the dura-
tion of the cue and immediately preceding it.
In Experiment 2, the training phase consisted of 69 trials in
pseudo random order. In both groups, the target cue was presented
in 30 trials, and the activation of the shield followed 80% of them
(24 trials). Contingency was manipulated by varying the percentage
of trials in which the context, rather than the cue, was followed by
the outcome. In the high-contingency condition, the context was
never followed by the activation of the shield, whereas in the low-
contingency condition, the context was followed by the shield 80%
of the time (i.e., 24 trials), thereby making the target cue noncontin-
gent on the shields despite its high probability of being reinforced.
An additional 15 trials were used in both groups with a filler cue
that was never followed by the shield, and its only purpose was to
prevent indiscriminate suppression (Arcediano et al., 1996). The
target and filler cues were two “Martian letters,” counterbalanced,
that represented the interception of messages between spaceships
(Costa, 2009). They appeared from time to time for a duration of
1.5 sec. At test, the target cue was presented for 3 sec so that the
suppression ratio could be assessed (see Arcediano et al., 1996).
Intertrial intervals lasted between 7 and 13.50 sec.
Upon completion of the Martians task, the judgmental variables
were assessed between participants. The screen presented the target
cue and a question that had to be answered with a number between
0 and 100. Half of the participants in each contingency condition re-
ceived a prediction question: If this cue [image of target cue inserted
here] appears on the screen, to what extent do you think that the
shield will be activated? The other half received a predictive-value
question: To what extent do you think that the onset of this cue is a
good predictor of the activation of the shield?
Results
Behavioral data
. The results of Experiment 2 were as
expected. Participants in the high-contingency condition
suppressed their barpressing behavior more in response
to the target cue (M 5 .20; SEM 5 .11) than did those
in the low-contingency condition (M 5 .27; SEM 5 .23)
[F(1,32) 5 7.08, p , .05]. (Recall that values closer to 0
indicate stronger suppression—that is, stronger prepara-
tory behavior in response to the target cue.) Thus, partici-
pants’ preparatory behavior was significantly affected by
the contingency between the cue and the shield, with those
exposed to a higher contingency being the ones who sup-
pressed their behavior the most.
Judgments
. Figure 2 plots the mean judgments by
group in this experiment. A 2 (contingency) 3 2 (question)
ANOVA yielded a significant interaction [F(1,30) 5 6.46,
p , .05]. No main effects for contingency [F(1,30) 5 2.40,
p 5 .132] or for question [F(1,30) 5 2.20, p 5 .148] were
found. Consistent with our hypothesis and with previous
literature, predictive-value judgments were significantly
affected by the contingency manipulation [F(1,16) 5
10.51, p , .01], whereas prediction judgments were not
[F(1,14) 5 3.97, p 5 . 54].
result reported by De Houwer et al. (2007). Our Experi-
ment 2, therefore, had several goals. The first one was
to provide a replication for the results of Experiment 1
using a very different procedure, in which most param-
eters changed, allowing the generality of the effect to be
assessed. The most important change in this experiment
was probably that in our dependent variable. A functional
analysis of contingency learning cannot rely solely on
what people say that they would do (i.e., their subjective,
verbalized judgments), or what they say that somebody
else should do. Our analysis needed convergent evidence
from the actual, nonverbal, preparatory behavior. Experi-
ment 2 was aimed at extending the findings of Experi-
ment 1 to a more comprehensive framework that included
not only verbal (numerical) judgments but also, most
importantly, the nonverbal preparatory behavior itself.
On a lesser point, we also aimed at using less extreme
contingencies. Although extreme values were needed
for a fair comparison with previous research [i.e., both
De Houwer et al., 2007, and Vadillo et al., 2005, used
a contingency of 0 and a p(O|C) of 1], and although the
difference between the contingency and p(O|C) needed to
be large for the dissociation to be observed, we thought
it was important to use a lower p(O|C) so as to make sure
that the results were not restricted to the special condition
in which the outcome is always present. Also, in order
to make sure that the dissociation observed in the judg-
mental responses in Experiment 1 was not the result of
our presenting all of the questions in the same screen,
we manipulated the question type between participants,
with each participant answering only one question. Fi-
nally, we used predictive-value rather than causal-value
questions. If our hypothesis was correct, the dissociation
that we observed between prediction and causal-value
judgments should also have been observed between pre-
diction and predictive-value judgments (see, e.g., Vadillo
et al., 2005).
Method
Participants
. Thirty-four anonymous volunteers took part in the
study. A random assignment resulted in 16 participants in the high-
contingency condition, and 18 in the low-contingency condition.
Orthogonally, 16 participants emitted a prediction judgment at the
end of training, and 18 emitted a prediction-value judgment.
Procedure and Design
. In Experiment 2, we used the Martians
video game that was originally developed by Arcediano, Ortega,
and Matute (1996); however, we used the new and improved version
that was developed by Franssen, Clarysse, Beckers, van Vooren, and
Baeyens (in press),
1
and we also incorporated several interesting
features that were developed by Costa (2009; see note 1). In the Mar-
tians paradigm, the suppression of barpressing behavior is used as an
analogue to animal conditioning suppression to assess preparatory
behavior in humans. The participants’ goal is to prevent Martians
from landing on Earth. Martian spaceships appear on the computer
screen at a rate of one spaceship every 250 msec. Participants are
told to fire their laser guns by pressing the space bar, and to destroy
as many spaceships as possible. Doing this results in a stable bar-
pressing rate. From time to time, the Martians activate an anti laser
shield consisting of screen flashes and a distinctive sound with a
duration of 500 msec. This shield is the outcome to be prepared
for. If the participant continues pressing the bar when the shield is
active, the laser gun becomes deactivated for 5 sec, and dozens of
120 Bl a n c o , Mat u t e , a n d Va d i l l o
We cannot know the reason why De Houwer et al.
(2007) observed a null result in the sensitivity of prepara-
tory judgments to contingency, but the main differences
between our judgmental study (Experiment 1) and theirs
are that we manipulated contingency between, rather than
within, participants; we used 120 training trials rather
than 10; and we assessed preparatory responses differ-
ently. These, and perhaps several other differences we are
not aware of, increased the chances that the sensitivity of
preparatory judgments to contingency could be detected
in our studies.
Why, then, is contingency learning used to prepare for
outcomes if it is not used when predicting their occurrence?
If the outcome is occurring often, regardless of whether the
cue is present or absent, a normatively adjusted response
should be sensitive to several facts: (1) The contingency
between the cue and the outcome is 0; (2) the causal value
of the cue is 0; (3) the predictive value of the cue is 0; (4) the
probability that the outcome will occur in the next trial is
high; and (5) the likelihood (the prediction) that the out-
come will occur following the cue is high. However, which
would be the most effective preparatory behavior? A prepa-
ratory response speaks to the question of what should be the
best possible use of knowledge and information in order to
best adapt to the demands of the environment. This includes
making good use of knowledge and information, but also
of energy resources and cost-efficient behavior. Therefore,
this also includes assessing the high cost of emitting a pre-
paratory response in all trials, irrespective of the predictive
value of the cue. What the present experiments have shown
is that once participants know that the outcome will occur
with a given probability and that there are no clues as to
what its cause can be, they learn that it makes no sense to
keep preparing for that outcome whenever any of the many
irrelevant cues in the environment are present (or at least it
makes no sense to prepare as intensely as if it were contin-
gent). Although we are often able to predict the occurrence
of important events just by looking at their base rates, it
would be impossible to prepare for all types of outcomes
that may occur, irrespective of their degree of contingency
with the signals that are present.
Because predictions, preparatory behavior, and prediction-
value judgments are so often taken as synonyms, we all tend
to assume that animals use contingency to predict the out-
comes. However, the only thing we can know for sure when
we work with animals is that they use contingency to prepare
for outcomes. Whether they use contingency because they
predict the outcome or because they know that the cue has
a high predictive value is something that, to our knowledge,
has not been addressed in the animal literature. Our results
suggest that, in addition to preparation behavior, it is the pre-
dictive value of cues rather than the predictions of the out-
come that requires contingency. This point should be valid
for human and nonhuman animals.
In sum, the present experiments have shown that con-
tingency learning may have survival value after all. It is
true that we do not need it to know the likelihood that
an outcome will occur, but we do need it if we want to
be able to select those signals with the higher predictive
(or causal) value in our environment so that we can en-
DISCUSSION
As was noted in the introduction, it is often assumed
that the reason why humans and animals extract contin-
gency information from the environment is a very practi-
cal one: being able to identify those cues that signal im-
portant events, so as to be able to predict their occurrence
and prepare for them.
Previous research has indeed shown that animals use
contingency information to prepare for outcomes (Res-
corla, 1968). It has also shown that people use contin-
gency information to acquire knowledge not only about
causation, but also about the predictive (signal) value of
the cues in the environment (Vadillo et al., 2005; Vadillo
& Matute, 2007). However, it has also shown that people
do not use this knowledge to predict the outcomes (see,
e.g., Gredebäck et al., 2000; Matute et al., 2002; Vadillo
et al., 2005; Vadillo & Matute, 2007) or to prepare for
them (De Houwer et al., 2007). This seems inconsistent
with the general assumption that the function of contin-
gency learning is to predict and prepare for outcomes.
Our present experiments have shown that prepara-
tory judgment and behavior are sensitive to contingency.
The two experiments used very different procedures and
dependent variables and demonstrated consistently that
preparatory judgments and behavior were significantly
stronger when there was a high level of contingency. Par-
ticipants also used contingency to detect which cues had
the higher causal and predictive values. Consistent with
previous reports, however, outcome predictions were not
based on contingency (see, e.g., Gredebäck et al., 2000;
Matute et al., 2002; Vadillo et al., 2005; Vadillo & Matute,
2007). Similar dissociations have been found for judg-
ments about the frequency with which the outcome fol-
lows the cue (Matute, Arcediano, & Miller, 1996) and
for outcome recall in the presence of the cue (Mitchell,
Lovibond, & Gan, 2005). Both of them also appear to
be independent of contingency and different from causal
judgments. Moreover, related research is also showing
that people tend to use base rates, rather than contingen-
cies, to infer correlations and to make predictions (Fiedler,
Freytag, & Meiser, 2009).
0
25
50
75
100
Prediction Predictive Value
Mean Judgments
Type of Question
Group High
Group Low
Figure 2. Mean judgments in Experiment 2. Error bars repre-
sent 1 standard error of the mean.
co n t i n g e n c y , Pr e d i c t i o n , a n d Pr e P a r a t i o n 121
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NOTE
1. We thank these researchers for sending us their improved versions
of the program. Special thanks are due to M. Franssen for helping us
program the experiment using the Leuven version.
(Manuscript received June 3, 2009;
revision accepted for publication October 9, 2009.)
gage in efficient preparatory behavior. Most importantly,
and regardless of the merits of the particular account we
have presented herein, our research calls for the need to
add preparatory judgments and behavior to the research
agenda of contingency learning. As was noted in the intro-
duction, the little attention that preparatory judgments and
behavior have captured in the human learning research
tradition is surprising, and it will be a task for future re-
search to investigate under which conditions contingency
learning is or is not useful for preparing for outcomes.
AUTHOR NOTE
Support for the present research was provided by Grant SEJ2007-63691/
PSIC from Dirección General de Investigación of the Spanish Govern-
ment, Grant PI2008-9 from Departamento de Educación, Universidades e
Investigación of the Basque Government, and Grant P08-SEJ-3586 from
Junta de Andalucía. F.B. was supported by fellowships BFI081.020.0 and
BFI04.484 from the Basque Government. He is now at the University
of Leuven, Belgium. We would like to thank M. Brown, J. De Houwer,
S. Musca, and C. Orgaz for their insightful comments on preliminary ver-
sions of this manuscript. Special thanks are due to Estíbaliz San Antón
for her valuable help in recruiting and running the participants of Experi-
ment 2. Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to
H. Matute, Departamento de Psicología, Universidad de Deusto, Apar-
tado 1, 48080 Bilbao, Spain (e-mail: matute@deusto.es).
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