No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Long-term global availability of food: Continued abundance or new scarcity
Abstract
During the 20th century hunger has become a problem of poverty amidst plenty rather than absolute food scarcity. The question is whether this will remain so or whether the hunger of the poor will once more be exacerbated by rising food prices. In this paper we discuss biophysical conditions, social forces and non-linear interactions that may critically influence the global availability of food in the long term. Until 2050, the global demand for primary phytomass for food will more than double, while competing claims to natural resources for other purposes (including biobased non-foods) will increase. A sober assessment of the earth¿s biophysical potential for biomass production, which recognizes competing claims and unavoidable losses, suggests that this is in itself still large enough for accommodating this rising demand. However, the exploitation of this biophysical potential proceeds through technical paradigms that set a relative maximum to food production. In addition, socio-economic mechanisms make the food economy run up against a ceiling even before this maximum is reached. As a consequence, current developments may well entail a new trend change in international markets. These developments include the depletion of land and water reserves, the stagnation of the potential yields of major crops, the rise in energy prices, and the way in which systemic socio-economic factors lead to a strong underutilization of production possibilities in the developing world. Given these conditions, the avoidance of steep rises in food prices may depend on the timely relaxation of socio-economic constraints in developing countries and on timely breakthroughs in sustainable yield increases, biorefinement and non-farm production systems. Myopic expectations make it doubtful whether spontaneous market forces will provide the necessary incentives for this, which may be reason for societal actors to consider the need for more active policies
... Total yield gap is sum of unexploitable, agronomic, and non-agronomic yield gaps and calculated as the difference between the simulated potential yield and the farmer's actual yield. Unexploitable yield gap is estimated as the difference between the simulated potential yield and the simulated research station yield and indicates that reaching the potential yield is not possible in practice because of increased production costs (high use of inputs) and environmental impacts (Tran and Nguyen 2001;Koning et al. 2008;Lobell et al. 2009). The agronomic yield gap is the difference between the simulated research station yield and the farmer's simulated yield, caused by limiting and reducing agronomic factors. ...
... Some parts of the substantial total yield gaps have been defined herein as unexploitable gap (26.7% of the total yield gap). Filling this type of yield gap in the field requires a high amount of water and nitrogen, which would result in a higher production costs and serious environmental impacts. The yield response to the application of more inputs tends to be a decreasing one because of the law of diminishing returns (Koning et al. 2008;Lobell et al. 2009). Other studies have reported different values when quantifying unexploitable yield gap. ...
Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) is one of the most important staple crops grown to produce feed for animals worldwide as well as in Iran with considerable surface in the arid and frost-prone climates. The yield gap analysis is an important topic for researchers worldwide as it aims to identify the factors influencing the gap between actual and potential yields and to enhance food security. To date, almost no long-term assessments have been focused on the barley yield gap analysis for the arid and semi-arid environments, particularly categorizing yield gap. In the current study, we therefore calibrated the APSIM-Barley model for three irrigated barley cultivars, validated the model using 31 field experiment reports, and applied it to simulate long-term (1989 to 2019) yields under eight production levels in eight major barley growing locations of Iran (Arak, Hamedan, Kabudarahang, Marvdasht, Neyshabour, Sabzevar, Saveh, and Shiraz). This is the first time that barley yield gaps are categorized into unexploitable, agronomic, and non-agronomic ones in Iran. The results revealed a huge difference between potential and actual yields (on average, 5.4 t ha−1 yield gap) across the studied locations indicating that the farmers could achieve only 38.6% of the potential yield. Yield gap values varied over locations and seasons. Unexploitable, agronomic, and non-agronomic yield gaps in the studied locations averaged 26.7%, 55.9%, and 17.4% of total yield gap, respectively. The major part of the agronomic yield gap in the studied locations was owing to water limitation, which accounted for ~ 40% of the agronomic yield gap, followed by other agronomic (30%), frost-limited (15.8%), cultivar-limited (13.7%), and sowing date-limited (10.4%) yield gaps. Our findings showed that by improving agronomic management practices, particularly water management and farmers’ non-agronomic conditions, the current yield gaps could be reduced considerably in arid and frost-affected locations.
... Although family farmers have been increasingly recognised for their contribution to the social, environmental and economic development of Latin American countries, they often do not fit the modernization paradigm of agriculture and have also been largely marginalized, which results in challenges such as poverty reduction, integration to markets and access to land (Medina et al., 2015). While it is estimated that 14% of all land in Latin America has changed hands through land redistribution, land negotiation or land colonization between 1930and 2008(FAO, 2019a, land distributions remain much more skewed than in other structurally-transformed economies, such as the United Kingdom, or other agricultural export-oriented countries, such as the Netherlands (Fig. 4). It is estimated that 1% of farms hold more than half of the total agricultural land in Latin America (Oxfam, 2016). ...
... Plant breeding (perhaps with wider acceptance of genetic modification in future) and improved management continue to shift production potential upwards, and productivity is still rising (albeit with some signs of levelling off -Cassman & Grassini, 2020). Technological developments in large-scale farming systems within well organised value-chains drive a process of lowering nominal prices of agricultural commodities (Koning et al., 2008). This will continue to drive many farmers to reduce operational costs and increase production to maintain their incomes. ...
Achieving SDG2 (zero hunger) in a situation of rapid global population growth requires a continued focus on food production. Farming not merely needs to sustainably produce nutritious diets, but should also provide livelihoods for farmers, while retaining natural ecosystems and services. Rather than focusing on production principles, this article explores the interrelations between farms and farming systems in the global food system. Evaluating farming systems around the world, we reveal a bewildering diversity. While family farms predominate, these range in size from less than 0.1 ha to more than 10,000 ha, and from hand hoe use to machine-based cultivation, enabling one person to plant more than 500 ha in a day. Yet, farming in different parts of the world is highly interdependent, not least because prices paid for farm produce are largely determined by global markets. Furthermore, the economic viability of farming is a problem, globally. We highlight trends in major regions of the world and explore possible trajectories for the future and ask: Who are the farmers of the future? Changing patterns of land ownership, rental and exchange mean that the concept of ‘what is a farm’ becomes increasingly fluid. Next to declining employment and rural depopulation, we also foresee more environmentally-friendly, less external input dependent, regionalised production systems. This may require the reversal of a global trend towards increasing specialisation to a recoupling of arable and livestock farming, not least for the resilience it provides. It might also require a slow-down or reversal of the widespread trend of scale enlargement in agriculture. Next to this trend of scale enlargement, small farms persist in Asia: consolidation of farms proceeds at a snail’s pace in South-east Asia and 70% of farms in India are ‘ultra-small’ – less than 0.05 ha. Also in Africa, where we find smallholder farms are much smaller than often assumed (< 1 ha), farming households are often food insecure. A raft of pro-poor policies and investments are needed to stimulate small-scale agriculture as part of a broader focus on rural development to address persistent poverty and hunger. Smallholder farms will remain an important source of food and income, and a social safety net in absence of alternative livelihood security. But with limited possibilities for smallholders to ‘step-up’, the agricultural engine of growth appears to be broken. Smallholder agriculture cannot deliver the rate of economic growth currently assumed by many policy initiatives in Africa.
... Underlying most of these transitions is the diminishing scarcity of food in Western societies combined with a higher purchasing power of most consumers (e.g. Koning et al., 2008;Hertel, 2011). The differentiated demand from consumers, but also the stronger pressure from society and policy-makers (such as the increased environmental regulations for agriculture production) have led to a shift in focus from production capacity to quality aspects and the external effects of production (Schneider et al., 2014). ...
... This especially holds in modern agricultural markets, with abundance of food for most consumers in developed countries (e.g. Koning et al., 2008;Sexton, 2013), as well as increased concentration of the largest global retail companies (Hovhannisyan et al., 2018). ...
... Phosphorus (P) is a major nutrient, essential for plant growth that cannot be substituted by any other element 1 . Phosphorus is mainly derived from non-renewable phosphate rock 2 and its application as inorganic P fertilizers increased rapidly since 1950 3 due to higher food demand for a growing world population 4 . Phosphate rock is mined faster than it is deposited 1 and it is estimated that the reserves of phosphate rock, based on current production rates of P fertilizers, will only last for the next 300-400 years 5 . ...
... Phosphorus is highly immobile due to adsorption, precipitation and conversion into the organic form 13 . Phosphorus has a very low solubility and is only available for plant uptake in its inorganic form as HPO 4 2− or H 2 PO 4 − and H 3 PO 4 14 . ...
Phosphorus (P) is a limiting nutrient for plants and an essential element for all life on Earth. As the resources of phosphate rock are depleting, new management tools for environmentally friendly P fertilizers are needed. In order to achieve this, recent studies have proposed to use biochar, a carbon-rich solid product of thermochemical conversion of biomass with minimal or zero oxygen supply, as slow-release P fertilizer. However, the effects of biochar on plant-available P in soils have been reported to be variable. Therefore, we quantitatively evaluated existing peer-reviewed data using meta-analysis to draw general conclusions. In the present study, we evaluated 108 pairwise comparisons to their response of biochar application on P availability in soils. Our results indicate that biochar can act as a short-, mid-, and long-term P fertilizer with its effect depending on feedstock, pyrolysis temperature and application amount. Overall, the addition of biochar significantly increased the P availability in agricultural soil by a factor of 4.6 (95% confidence interval 3.4–5.9), independent of the used feedstock for biochar production. Only biochar application amounts above 10 Mg ha−1 and biochar produced at temperatures lower than 600 °C significantly increased the P availability of agricultural soils. The application of biochar to acid (pH < 6.5) and neutral soils (pH 6.5–7.5) significantly increased plant-P availability by a factor of 5.1 and 2.4, respectively (95% confidence interval 3.5–6.7 and 1.4–3.4, respectively), while there was no significant effect in alkaline soils (pH > 7.5). Taken together, this meta-analysis shows that biochar significantly enhances plant-available P in biochar-amended soils at least for five years.
... However, the case against food imports is far from decided. The future of food prices is uncertain (Koning et al., 2008), but for most of the past half century, global food prices have declined relative to other prices, and even despite recent increases, the real prices (i.e. expressed in constant US$) of key staples such as maize, wheat and rice currently remain about half their average during the 1960s and 1970s, as shown by Frankema (this volume, Figure 9.3). ...
... Addressing postharvset losses is critical for enhancing global food security. By reducing these losses, it is possible to increase the availability of nutritious food without the need for additional agricultural production, thereby reducing the pressure on natural resources and contributing to environmental sustainability (Koning et al., 2008). Moreover, reducing postharvest losses can help to stabilize food prices and improve the incomes of smallholder farmers, who are often the most affected by postharvest losses. ...
Postharvest management in horticulture is important for maintaining the quality, safety, and shelf life of produce, significantly impacting global food security and economic stability. This review explores critical advancements in postharvest practices, focusing on quality control, safety standards, and emerging technologies. Postharvest quality assessment involves the evaluation of physical, chemical, and sensory attributes, supported by microbiological testing to ensure food safety. Global standards like HACCP, GlobalG.A.P., and ISO 22000 provide frameworks for ensuring compliance and market access. Technological innovations, including near-infrared spectroscopy, hyperspectral imaging, and smart sensors, enable precise, real-time monitoring of produce quality, enhancing operational efficiency. Emerging technologies are revolutionizing the field; nanotechnology offers advanced packaging solutions that improve shelf life and food safety, while drones and AI enhance postharvest monitoring and logistics through real-time data collection and predictive analytics. Blockchain technology introduces unprecedented levels of traceability and transparency, ensuring accountability and rapid response to food safety issues. The integration of these technologies not only improves the efficiency and sustainability of postharvest systems but also aligns with consumer demands for high-quality, safe, and sustainably sourced produce. This holistic approach reduces post- harvest losses, enhances market competitiveness, and contributes to global efforts in ensuring food security. The synergy of traditional quality control methods with cutting-edge technologies paves the way for a resilient and adaptive post- harvest management system that meets the evolving challenges of the agricultural sector.
... It is irreplaceable by other soil nutrients (Neset and Cordell 2012). Phosphorus fertilizer is produced from many sources, such as phosphate rocks, to meet the growing demand caused by the expanding global population (Koning et al. 2008). Biochars are synthesized from a wide range of organic materials through several thermochemical processes. ...
Biochar is a carbon-rich material produced through the pyrolysis of organic biomass. Its unique properties make it a versatile asset in agricultural and environmental management. This review paper provides scientific insights into how biochar affects soil’s physical, chemical, and biological properties. It then discusses how these changes can impact crop growth and yield, addressing a key concern for farmers while also considering the potential for biochar to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as carbon dioxide (CO2), Nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4), which is of public interest. Additionally, it examines the costs and benefits associated with biochar use, aiming to guide its adoption and suggest future research directions in agricultural applications. Biochar incorporation improves soil properties by enhancing structure, water retention, aeration, nutrient availability, and microbial activity. Different processes impact the effects of biochar on soil, plants, and agricultural systems, influenced by factors like biochar type, soil type, and application rate. Understanding the interaction of these elements, especially over the long term, is vital for promoting the widespread use of biochar in agriculture. Moreover, assessing the economic benefits and costs of biochar in each region is key to convincing farmers to adopt this practice.
Graphical abstract
... When major agricultural producers experience yield losses due to abiotic stress, the global supply of commodities such as grains, fruits, and vegetables can diminish Kumar et al., 2022). This scarcity often leads to increased competition for available supplies, causing prices to rise in international markets (Koning et al., 2008). Also, disruptions in supply can result in fluctuations in export volumes and trade patterns, as countries seek to secure their domestic food supplies and balance trade deficits. ...
Abiotic stress encompassing drought, salinity, and temperature extremes pose a
significant threat to agricultural profitability. Reduced crop yields due to these
environmental factors translate into direct economic losses for farmers. Lower
production necessitates higher prices to maintain income, impacting consumers
through food price inflation. Approximately 90% of arable land is affected by
abiotic stressors, which result in yield losses of 51% to 82% for significant
crops. These challenges have major impact on the economy on a local, national,
and international level in addition to immediately endangering food security.
Abiotic stressors cause physiological processes necessary for plant growth and
development to be disrupted, which has a significant impact on agricultural
productivity. While each stressor affects plants differently, they all hinder the
growth, development and yield of the plants. Reducing yield of the crops will
make more difficult for farmer to pay production costs, make payments on
loans, and maintain their way of life. Abiotic stressors affect food security,
farmer livelihoods, and the dynamics of international trade, posing serious
economic difficulties to agriculture. A comprehensive strategy including
technology advancements, capacity-building programs, and legislation is
required to address the economic impacts of abiotic stresses in agriculture.
Adopting sustainable farming practices, enacting supportive legislation and
investing in research and development are just a few of the fronts‘ where
coordinated efforts are needed to mitigate these issues. We can develop a more
resilient and sustainable agricultural system that can feed a growing world
population in the face of expanding environmental pressures by tackling the
economic effects of abiotic stresses.
... Factors such as global food demand, scarce cereal stocks, and climate change are emerging challenges to be confronted for the stability of food systems at the national and global levels [1][2][3]. Likewise, hunger has increased in Latin America and the Caribbean [4] and threatened a massive resurgence amid the coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic [5][6][7]. ...
Over a comprehensive 5-year assessment, and extrapolating it prospectively until 2025, a thorough examination was conducted of productive agrobiodiversity in nine rural agricultural districts across Peru. The present study involved in-depth interviews with 180 representative farmers of the Coast, Highlands, and Jungle natural regions. Employing the Shannon–Weiner diversity index and the Margalef species richness index, the dynamics within years and across different zones were analyzed. Utilizing quadratic trend models, we assessed the frequency of each crop, aiming for the optimal fit concerning absolute deviation from the mean, mean squared deviation, and mean absolute percentage error. These findings revealed five distinct crop types—tuberous, fruits, cereals, legumes, and roots—distributed across 25 diverse families. Looking ahead to 2025, our projections indicated positive trends in 15 families and negative trends in 9 crop families. The nuanced mathematical distinctions observed in crop management decisions varied significantly depending on the specific area and year, underscoring the importance of localized considerations in agricultural planning.
... This consequently exerts escalations in the demand for food and food crops. Other killer factors include the food gap dangers, meat and milk scarcity due to animal extinction and environmental problems [38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. Considering these already existing challenges associated with food and food crops production, the "biomass-to-fuel" strategies must shift emphasis on the utilization of non-edible dedicated energy crops. ...
The production of energy crops as biomass resources for conversion into different fuels is increasingly becoming an issue of industrial interest for establishing a balance between energy security and hunger threats. In line with this perspective, the present review discussed a comprehensive analysis of wide literature on the process commercialization potentials from the catalysis point of view. Concise details on the major energy crops were initially provided together with highlights on current industrial status. Specifically, catalytic fast pyrolysis (including the ablative method) of energy crops feed and derived bio-oil upgrading were discussed. Catalytic strategies suitable for the production of high heating value bio-oil that is rich in hydrocarbons (i.e. both BTEX aromatics and aliphatic) were highlighted. For the interest of commercial advances, the paper discussed the role of different catalytic systems including low-cost oxides, natural zeolites and the catalyst materials derived from industrial wastes such as red mud and steel slags. Perspective areas for further investigations were subsequently highlighted.
Graphical Abstract
... The story of design and change is one of blood, sweat and tears for many good willing producers. Public, business, consumers and rural communities each have their own 'scapes' and roles to play in keeping the farming sector variable, resilient and viable enough to innovate [99]. As implied in thermodynamic theory, unlikely design by forced and unlikely goal setting is likely to need more energy (resources) than processes that 'happen' in accordance with local conditions. ...
Terms such as system crash, collapse of chaos and complexity can help one understand change, also in biological, socio-economic and technical systems. These terms need, however, explanation for fruitful dialogue on design of sustainable systems. We start this paper on Grass Based (GB) systems, therefore, dwelling on these terms and notions as review for the insiders and to help interested ‘outsiders’. We also stress the need to use additional and/or new paradigms for understanding of the nature of nature. However, we show that many such ‘new’ paradigms were known for long time around the globe among philosophers and common men, giving reason to include quotes and examples from other cultures and eras. In the past few centuries, those paradigms have become hidden, perhaps, under impressive but short-term successes of more linear paradigms. Therefore, we list hang-ups on paradigms of those past few centuries. We then outline what is meant by ‘GB systems’, which exist in multiple forms/‘scapes’. Coping with such variation is perhaps the most central aspect of complexity. To help cope with this variation, the different (GB) systems can be arranged on spatial, temporal, and other scales in such a way that the arrangements form logical sequences (evolutions) of stable states and transitions of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Together with other ways to handle complexity, we give examples of such arrangements to illustrate how one can (re-)imagine, (re-)cognize and manage initial chaotic behaviors and eventual ‘collapse’ of chaos into design and/or emergence of new systems. Then, we list known system behaviors, such as predator–prey cycles, adaptive cycles, lock-in, specialization and even tendency to higher (or lower) entropy. All this is needed to understand changes in management of evolving GB into multi-scapes. Integration of disciplines and paradigms indicates that a win-win is likely to be exception rather than rule. With the rules given in this paper, one can reset teaching, research, rural development, and policy agendas in GB-systems and other areas of life.
... Hasta antes de las primeras conceptualizaciones de los sistemas alimentarios, el debate sobre política alimentaria centraba su análisis en la disponibilidad de alimentos y la problemática productiva, identificando la política alimentaria con la política agrícola (Schejtman, 1994). Sin embargo, diversos estudios advirtieron que la intensificación de la producción agrícola por sí sola no es suficiente para resolver los grandes problemas alimentarios que aquejan a nuestras sociedades (Sen, 1981;Koning et al., 2008;Ruben, 2020), y que incluso una oferta superavitaria de alimentos puede coexistir con altos niveles de desnutrición (Schejtman, 1986). Las limitaciones de este enfoque radican, principalmente, en la concentración de la atención en la actividad agropecuaria como respuesta a la problemática alimentaria, ignorando los vínculos e interacciones de este sector productivo con un conjunto más amplio de actores que forman parte de los procesos y actividades, que se realizan desde la cosecha de alimentos primarios hasta su consumo final. ...
La pérdida del bosque húmedo tropical es una de las principales preocupaciones
globales por su impacto sobre la pérdida de biodiversidad y el cambio climático. Para mitigarlo, es necesario un enfoque sistémico que permita identificar los factores causales, cómo se interrelacionan y quiénes son los agentes que los
mueven. Recientemente, en Perú, se han desarrollado metodologías y herramientas para estimar la deforestación, aprovechando la tecnología y disponibilidad de datos geoespaciales, y relacionarla a factores «directos» que la desencadenan. Sin embargo, estos estudios y modelos no reflejan las raíces más profundas de los procesos de cambio, ni cómo se generan a partir de interacciones complejas entre factores. Esta investigación presenta los resultados de un piloto de implementación de una metodología basada en el análisis sistémico de las causas de deforestación, que permite identificar las causas y sus relaciones, que llevan a los agentes a tomar decisiones que impactan en los procesos de deforestación y degradación en la Amazonía peruana. Con la metodología DriveNet, que combina un enfoque participativo multiactor con elementos de la contextualización progresiva y el análisis de métricas de redes, se analizan las causas y sus relaciones de influencia bajo mecanismos causales relacionados con los agentes de deforestación. Se contrastan los procesos en dos regiones amazónicas: San Martín, con el 30% de su superficie deforestada y un patrón de pérdida intermitente estable; y Madre de Dios, con el 5% de su superficie deforestada y un patrón de pérdida creciente. El estudio brinda elementos claves para entender los factores desencadenantes, los agentes vinculados a estos procesos; y para informar a los tomadores de decisión con el fin de que desarrollen intervenciones adecuadas y oportunas.
... Currently, this essentially technocratic approach comes strongly to the fore in debates about total world food production, its potentials and its (natural) limits (see, e.g., Koning et al., 2008). The main parameters in the models used are the amounts of water, nutrients, solar energy and agricultural land (ranked in different classes that reflect levels of fertility). ...
... Over the last few decades, eating habits and home environments have considerably changed [1]. The resulting shifts in global dietary patterns led to a world in transition to highly processed diets [2], with the increased availability of ready-to-eat foods, large portion sizes, energy-dense, and inexpensive foods [3]. In the last two decades, dietary habits have shifted across all age groups in modern societies and seem to be converging into a diet pattern high in saturated and trans-fat, sugar and refined foods but low in fibre [4,5]. ...
Background & Aims
Ultra-processed foods (UPF) consumption has increased greatly over the last decades but its impact on health remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the prospective effect of different degrees of food processing on children’s cardiometabolic profile.
Methods
Children from the Portuguese population-based birth cohort Generation XXI evaluated at 7 and 10 years of age (y), with dietary information at 7 y and anthropometric measurements at 10 y, were included in the present study (n=3034). Dietary data were collected by 3-day food diaries and all reported food items were classified according to the degree of processing using the NOVA classification system. The daily consumption of the NOVA classification groups was calculated (in grams, as a proportion of total grams and total energy intake). The cardiometabolic outcomes included were serum markers [fasting glucose, insulin, blood lipids], anthropometric measurements [body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC)], body composition [fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM)] and blood pressure (BP). Age- and sex-specific sample z-scores were obtained for all outcomes. Principal Component Analysis was used to identify a potential cluster of cardiovascular risk factors. Generalized linear models were fitted to evaluate the association between the consumption according to the processing degree (as absolute gram intake) and the individual cardiometabolic risk factors and cluster, adjusted for child’s sex, maternal age and education and remaining NOVA groups. A mediation role of children’s BMI in the previous analysis were tested.
Results
At 7 y, the daily median consumption of un/minimally processed, processed and UPF was 1210g, 113g and 433g (68%, 6% and 25% of the total grams, as well as 51%, 15% and 31% of the total energy intake, respectively). After adjustment, an increase of 100g in the consumption of un/minimally processed at 7y was associated with a lower BMI (βˆ = -0.028; 95%CI: -0.043; -0.014), WC (βˆ = -0.020; 95%CI: -0.032; -0.008), FM (βˆ = -0.023; 95%CI: -0.035; -0.011), insulin (βˆ = -0.022; 95%CI: -0.036; -0.008) and BP (systolic BP: βˆ= -0.014; 95%CI: -0.025;-0.004; diastolic BP: βˆ= -0.013; 95%CI: -0.020;-0.005), at 10 y. BMI was a mediator between the consumption of un/minimally processed foods and BP. Positive associations were found between consumption of processed foods and the cluster ‘higher blood pressure’, while an inverse association was described between un/minimally processed and the cluster 'higher blood pressure' no significant associations were found between the UPF consumption and any cardiometabolic outcomes.
Conclusions
High consumption of unprocessed or minimally processed foods has a favourable effect on later children’s cardiometabolic health, namely lower body weight and body fat, lower waist circumference, blood pressure insulin serum levels.
... Political, economic, engineering, and agronomic challenges for protecting food security in the developing world have long received the attention of food policymakers as well as food resource scholars (Andrew et al., 2007;Frison et al., 2006;Naylor et al., 2004;Newell et al., 2010;Pretty and Bharucha, 2014;Samberg et al., 2016b;Schaffler and Swilling, 2013;Smith, 2008;Tontisirin et al., 2002). This attention has seen growing attention in recent years for both crop (Koning et al., 2008;Naylor et al., 2004;Pretty and Bharucha, 2014;Samberg et al., 2016a;Sumberg et al., 2013) and livestock (Devendra, 2013;Franc et al., 2018;Newell et al., 2010;Reynolds et al., 2010;Rosegrant et al., 1999;Tontisirin et al., 2002) systems in the face of ongoing climate change, COVID-19, and related food security threats. ...
CONTEXT
A classical challenge in the search for principles and guidelines to protect food security affordably in the developing world comes from the well-known dilemma faced by farmers who incur economic losses from low prices brought on by excess production combined with poorly developed policies to anticipate, adapt to, and manage production and price fluctuations. This challenge is elevated in the face of growing evidence of climate change.
OBJECTIVE
This work performs a series of policy experiments to discover an affordable set of measures to protect food grain security as well as assure profitability of high valued crops in Bangladesh.
METHODS
This work uses primary and secondary data from Bangladesh agriculture to develop an empirical mathematical programming economic optimization model to achieve each of four alternative food policy objectives.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Results show total economic welfare achievable under each policy objectives: protecting baseline observed farm sector outcomes, minimum protection of food grain security, protection of farm income from producing high value crops, and unconstrained food welfare optimization. The application is to an important farming region of northwest Bangladesh. We find that policymakers can achieve both food grain security and farm income from high value crops at a minimum cost of economic welfare displaced.
SIGNIFICANCE
The use of empirical models that describe and predict farm economic optimization behavior can provide guidance in the search for affordable policies for protecting food grain security while protecting farm income in the developing world.
... Furthermore, the widespread use of P fertilizers is a threat to SDG6 (clean water and sanitation) and SDG14 (life below water) due to P losses from farm fields by surface runoff and consequent eutrophication of freshwater and coastal seas 8,9 . Yet, the supply of P is crucial to food security 10 . Future P management will therefore play an important role in achieving SDG2 (zero hunger). ...
Phosphorus (P) is an essential nutrient for life. In many tropical countries, P-fixing soils and very low historical P input limit uptake of P in crops and thus yields. This presents a serious obstacle for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 2.3 of doubling productivity in smallholder farms. We calculated the geographic distribution of P limitation (1 – actual/potential P uptake) and the P input required to achieve this SDG target by 2030 in comparison to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) scenario for five world regions where smallholder farms dominate. To achieve target 2.3, these regions require 39% more P application (126 Tg) between 2015 and 2030. While P limitation is most widespread in sub-Saharan Africa, it is the only region on track to achieving the doubling of productivity in the SSP2 scenario (increase by a factor of 1.8). Achieving the target requires a strong increase in P input, while protecting soils and waterways from excessive P runoff.
... Phosphorus is a major limiting nutrient for crop production in many regions (Koning et al., 2008;Sattari et al., 2014;Jarvie et al., 2015). The application of phosphate (P) fertilizers is a necessary practice for sustaining high crop yields in low P soils. ...
Modern phosphate (P) fertilizers are sourced from P rock reserves, a finite and dwindling resource. Globally, China is the largest producer and consumer of P fertilizer and will deplete its domestic reserves within 80 years. It is necessary to avoid excess P input in agriculture through estimating P demand. We used the legacy P assessment model (LePA) to estimate P demand based on soil P management at the county, regional, and country scales according to six P application rate scenarios: (1) rate in 2012 maintained; (2) current rate maintained in low-P counties and P input stopped in high-P counties until critical Olsen-P level (CP) is reached, after which rate equals P-removal; (3) rate decreased to 1–1.5 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in low-P counties after CP is reached and in high-P counties; (4) rate in each county decreased to 1–8 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ after soil Olsen-P reached CP in low P counties; (5) rate in each county was kept at P-removal rate after reduction; (6) P input was kept at the rate lower than P-offtake rate after reduction. The results showed that the total P fertilizer demand of China was 750 MT P2O5, 54% of P fertilizer can be saved from 2013 to 2080 in China, and soil Olsen-P of all counties can satisfy the demand for high crop yields. The greatest potential to decrease P input was in Yangtze Plain and South China, which reached 60%. Our results provide a firm basis to analyze the depletion of P reserves in other countries.
... Recycling P has become a critical topic of interest in sustainable agriculture because P is mainly derived from non-renewable phosphate rock [49]. The demand for inorganic P fertilizer has increased due to the rapidly growing world population, and phosphate rock is being mined faster than it is being replaced [50,51]. Another source of P is animal manure, and some research proposes pyrolyzing animal manures to provide inorganic P in agricultural soils [52][53][54]. ...
Biochar, wood vinegar, and poultry litter are waste streams that can be utilized as soil amendments and fertilizers. However, poultry litter releases several pollutants through nutrient leaching and carries heavy microbial loads, including potential human pathogens. Improving nutrient retention and reducing microbial load in poultry litter may help protect environmental and human health and improve its value as a soil amendment. The objectives of this study were to determine how blending varying proportions of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) biochar, wood vinegar, and poultry litter affected nutrient profiles and microbial abundance over time. Biochar inclusion rates were 0%, 5%, 10%, and 20%, and wood vinegar was applied at 2% w/w. Samples were taken at Day 0, 57, and 112 to measure nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, pH, total fungi, and total bacteria. Nutrient levels generally decreased with increasing biochar level; however, biochar inclusion rates of 10% and 20% retained nitrogen and phosphorus and exhibited improved physical properties. Overall, adding wood vinegar decreased nutrient concentrations and showed a biocidal effect for bacteria and fungi. Bacteria and fungi showed different relationships with biochar inclusion rates, with fungi preferring higher biochar inclusion rates and bacteria flourishing at lower biochar inclusion rates.
... Thus, due to population increase, crop production must be increased to prevent malnutrition and starvation (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012;Liu and Savenije, 2008). The problem of reducing natural vegetation loss while increasing crop yield required for population health has been discussed by many researchers, but it has remained unsolved (Koning et al., 2008). However, the intensification of existing cropland is also thought to be more productive than the conversion of more natural area (Estel et al., 2016). ...
The world's rapid population growth is also fueling the high demand for food. Cropland intensification and expansion as the primary source of increasing food production thrives everywhere, yet hinders natural vegetation. This study aims to examine the extent to which the development of Cropland intensity affects natural vegetation and scrutinizes its relationship with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the African continent from 1992 to 2015. The ratio of total Crop area harvested and Cropland extent (CE) datasets used to compute the cropping intensity CI (yr⁻¹) for each year over 24 years. The correlation coefficient and comparison method were applied for cropland intensity and natural vegetation to reveal the rate at which cropland intensity affects natural vegetation. The same method was applied between CI, CE and GDP percentage from Agriculture to know their relationship. The results revealed that Cropland extended at a rate of about 9130.17 km² yr⁻¹, leading to a rise of 219,123.99 km² of increase. Shrubland was the most devastated natural vegetation at a rate of −9461.96 km² and cleared about 227,087.1 km². The CI and GDP percentage from agriculture showed a strong negative correlation in most of the countries, especially in developing countries. The CI is low and the CE is high, which means the degradation of existing natural vegetation and the eradication of potential environment health. Ethiopia and Tanzania have been the only two countries which experienced cropland decrease among the top 10 African countries with a large cropland area, while Nigeria and Sudan have increased the most. Further Malawi witnessed the highest percentage growth for cropland. South Sudan has identified strong trends in GDP percent from agriculture, while Libya has seen substantial decline. On the other hand, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, Ethiopia, and Chad identified to have the biggest % of agriculture to GDP during the study period.
... Phosphorus is an important and indispensable resource for the biological growth of plants and is widely used in agricultural activities to increasing crop production (Koning et al. 2008). Owing to the slow regeneration of phosphorus, this element is considered a non-renewable resource (Van Vuuren et al. 2010). ...
Phosphorus is an essential nutrient for maintaining and increasing crop production. Owing to frequent human activities, phosphorus resources cause serious environmental pollution. Simulating phosphorus transport with a hydrological model could help understand the phosphorus loss processes at catchment scale. However, in previous modeling studies, phosphorus calibration and validation usually run in monthly time steps, it is difficult to correctly simulate the phosphorus transport peak. Additionally, most previous studies have disregarded the form of phosphorus in transported processes and only considered the total phosphorus, which cannot accurately assist in understanding the specific process of phosphorus transport. Rice is an important agricultural product, widely planted in Asia, and the particulate inorganic phosphorus loss in rice paddies is generally high. Previous studies could not fully simulate the transport of different phosphorus forms in rice paddy catchments. We analyzed the impact of climate change on phosphorus transport under different fertilization scenarios using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. We compared mineral phosphorus flux with the sum of particulate phosphorus and dissolved orthophosphate during the calibration and validation processes. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of mineral and total phosphorus in both the calibration and validation periods were higher than 0.65. Rice paddies are the major source of phosphorus loss from the catchment, amounting to 5.4 kg/ha, and particulate inorganic phosphorus accounted for 53% of total phosphorus loss. The average annual phosphorus export was 30 tons/yr; the maximum value was nine times higher than the minimum value. Precipitation had a clear impact on phosphorus transport.Graphic Abstract
... Yp and Yw are defined according to crop species, varieties, climate, soil type (Yw) and water supply (Yw), so Yp and Yw are highly variable between regions and within regions. However, a large number of farmers are unlikely to achieve the crop and soil management required to achieve Yp or Yw perfectly, and it is usually not cost-effective, because the yield response to application input follows a decreasing return when farm yields approach the maximum yield (Koning et al., 2008, Lobell et al., 2009). In addition, from the perspective of resource use efficiency (De Wit, 1992), the goal is to narrow the yield gap at a lower yield level threshold (relative to Yp or Yw) when the factors controlling the highest yield have greater uncertainty (such as high temperature, variable rainfall, strong wind promoting lodging), and so on. ...
Global warming has seriously affected human survival and the sustainable development of agriculture. Due to the rapid global climate change, the situation has further deteriorated. In crop production, drought is undoubtedly the most important stress, which has a great impact on crop growth and productivity. Understanding the physiological, biochemical and ecological interventions associated with these stresses is important for better management. Abiotic stress is one of the main factors restricting crop production and food security in the world. This paper discusses the scientific basis of greenhouse gas emission and carbon absorption in farmland describes the response of plants to drought stress and the negative effects of crop growth and yield formation and evaluates the gap between actual yield and crop potential yield and the influence of limiting factors, which has not been reasonably eliminated. This phenomenon is common in the agricultural production of all countries in the world.
... Phosphorus (P) is an essential element for plant growth (Smil, 2000;Koning et al., 2008). All modern synthetic P fertilizers are sourced from finite phosphate rock reserves (Syers et al., 2008;Cordell and White, 2011). ...
Phosphate (P) rock is a finite natural resource, and its use for P fertilizer production has resulted in its rapid depletion worldwide. In order to reduce the use of natural P resources, reducing the input of P into agricultural systems is necessary. The assessment of legacy P in soil is an option to maintain crop yield with low P fertilizer input. Many models have been tested to assess the contribution of legacy soil P to crop uptake. However, these models face a common challenge as conceptual soil P pools in models cannot be accurately initiated and evaluated using measured soil P indexes. In this study, a novel legacy P assessment (LePA) model was developed according to empirical equations about crop P uptake, soil Olsen-P, and total P from two long-term fertilizer experiments in typical calcareous and acidic soils in China. We used the DPPS (dynamic phosphorus pool simulator) model as a contrast model to estimate the simulation accuracy of the new LePA model. The calibration and validation datasets for both models were set-up by collecting data from two long-term fertilizer experiments in typical calcareous and acidic soils in China. The results showed that the LePA model simulated crop P uptake similar to the DPPS model in calcareous soil. While the DPPS model failed to depict crop P uptake under low pH conditions, the LePA model worked well after modification when limited crop growth caused by acidic conditions was considered. Moreover, the LePA model can also predict changes in soil TP and Olsen-P with P fertilizer application, which are new functions compared with the DPPS model. Based on a scenario analysis generated by the LePA model, P fertilizer application could be reduced by 52% in Yangling and 46% in Qiyang compared with the conventional application rate during this period to maintain the current yields if soil legacy P can be utilized efficiently. The LePA model is a useful tool for guiding soil P management from the field to country scales.
... Water, soil and nutrient are the three major resources for crop production that met the food demand of the earth 2,15 . Yield of crop, especially rice, has a close relation to soil nutrient content and moisture status. ...
The fundamental goal of sustainable agricultural is to meet food demand without disturbing soil and environment. However, the heavy fertilization is crucial for higher agricultural production to feed increasing population. However, environmental pollution through nutrient leaching or runoff has a serious concern due to their negative environmental consequences. Therefore, the inherent nutrient supply capacity of a soil (soil yield potential) should be explored because it has direct relationship with crop yield. To determine the impact of initial soil fertility on crop yield, 144 soil samples were collected from south central region of Bangladesh during boro season of 2013 and 2014. Soil properties were determined following standard procedure. The yield of rice demonstrated a strong linear relationship with Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) content, but poor with other soil properties like pH, total N, available P and exchangeable K. Hence, a generic model was developed from the association of grain yield and SOC. According to the model, if the initial SOC content of crop field increased by 1%, the rice yield may be increased by 4.58 t ha-1 in boro season. Therefore, there is a great potential of enhancing the crop yield by improving the SOC content of soil. It will limit overuse of nutrients which can save production cost and protect environment.
... Water, soil and nutrient are the three major resources for crop production that met the food demand of the earth 2,15 . Yield of crop, especially rice, has a close relation to soil nutrient content and moisture status. ...
Abstract:
The fundamental goal of sustainable agricultural is to meet food demand without disturbing soil and environment. However, the heavy fertilization is crucial for higher agricultural production to feed increasing population. However, environmental pollution through nutrient leaching or runoff has a serious concern due to their negative environmental consequences. Therefore, the inherent nutrient supply capacity of a soil (soil yield potential) should be explored because it has direct relationship with crop yield. To determine the impact of initial soil fertility on crop yield, 144 soil samples were collected from south central region of Bangladesh during boro season of 2013 and 2014. Soil properties were determined following standard procedure. The yield of rice demonstrated a strong linear relationship with Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) content, but poor with other soil properties like pH, total N, available P and exchangeable K. Hence, a generic model was developed from the association of grain yield and SOC. According to the model, if the initial SOC content of crop field increased by 1%, the rice yield may be increased by 4.58 t ha-1 in boro season. Therefore, there is a great potential of enhancing the crop yield by improving the SOC content of soil. It will limit overuse of nutrients which can save production cost and protect environment.
Keywords:
Generic model, rice yield, Soil Organic Carbon, soil chemical properties, soil yield potential
... Interest in more systematic approaches to food system outcomes goes back some 20 years, in response to dissatisfaction with supplyfocused development programs based on rather linear food security thinking. It became increasingly clear that intensification of food production alone would not be enough to accomplish the structural eradication of hunger (Koning et al., 2008). Innovation of production technologies could increase potential food supply, but uptake has been limited due to high risks and market constraints, whereas issues of diet diversity and micronutrient deficiencies were largely disregarded. ...
Food systems approaches are increasingly used to better understand transitions in diets, sustainable resource use and social inclusion. Moreover, food systems frameworks are also widely used in many recent policy and foresight studies. We assess 32 highly-cited international studies, identifying and comparing differences in the frameworks used for food systems analysis, and discrepancies in the procedures to identify strategies for and performances of food system transformation. We show that the relevance of existing food systems analysis for identifying critical trade-offs and understanding relevant policies and practices for achieving synergies remains limited. While many studies are largely descriptive, some offer more practical insights into and evidence of entry points for food system transformation as well as opportunities for improving multiple food system outcomes (i.e. nutrition and health, environmental sustainability and resilience, social inclusion). We distinguish four different pathways for food system transformation and outline their analytical underpinnings, their views on multi-stakeholder governance, and how they deal with critical trade-offs between multiple food system objectives. We conclude that food systems approaches must be useful to decision makers and performance can only be improved if decision makers have a better understanding of these underlying interactions and dynamics of food systems change.
... Nevertheless, FAO's is the longest time series with worldwide coverage obtained using relatively consistent methods. Figure 1 shows that until the 19th century there was little variation in per capita agricultural land, notwithstanding some productivity gains, particularly in cropland per capita in the 18th century (Koning et al. 2008). Consequently, agricultural land loosely tracked population. ...
Terrestrial biodiversity loss and climate change, driven mainly by loss of habitat to agriculture and fossil fuel (FF) use, respectively, are considered among the world's greatest environmental threats. However, FF‐dependent technologies are currently essential for manufacturing synthetic nitrogen fertilizers (SNFs) and synthetic pesticides (SPs) critical to increasing agricultural productivity, which reduces habitat loss. Fossil fuel use increases CO2 levels, further enhancing agricultural productivity. Based on estimates of global increases in yields from SNFs, SPs, and atmospheric CO2 fertilization, I estimated that FF‐dependent technologies are responsible for at least 62.5% of current global food production (GFP) from cropland. Thus, if FF use is eschewed in the future, maintaining current GFP means croplands would have to increase from 12.2% of global land area (GLA) excluding Antarctica to 32.7%. The additional 20.4% of GLA needed exceeds habitat lost currently to cropland (12.2% of GLA) and cumulative conservation areas globally (14.6% of GLA). Thus, although eliminating FF use could reduce climate change, its unintended consequences may be to significantly exacerbate biodiversity loss and indirectly increase food costs, reducing food security which, moreover, disproportionately affects the poor. Although it may be possible to replace SNFs and SPs with FF‐free technologies, such substitutes have not yet been demonstrated to be sufficiently economical or efficient. In the interim, meeting global food demand and keeping food prices affordable would increase habitat conversion and food prices. These trade‐offs should be considered in analyses of climate change policies.
... From an agronomic point of view, the responsiveness of yields to the increased prices has been a key factor in meeting the increases in world food, feed and bioenergy demands, although especially in emerging economies also land area extensions have played a role. Nevertheless, real prices of agricultural commodities have been going down most of the time in the past 100+ years (Koning et al., 2008), while yields have gone up in many places almost linearly. ...
The evolution of yields is one of the driving factors explaining crop supply growth. Part of this is explained by how yields react to prices, though there is a lot of uncertainty about the price-responsiveness of yields. Using information from various sources such as agronomy, economic theory and economic literature an in-depth assessment of yield price responsiveness is made. The result is used as a set of prior-information, which is subsequently taken into account to re-estimate yield price supply responses for 20 main crops in major producing developed and developing countries, using OLS and Mixed Estimation (ME) approaches. The outcomes indicate that price-responsiveness is usually low. Moreover, the ME results are different than the current estimates used in the OECD-FAO’s market outlook model, showing stronger differentiation among crops/countries. The Mixed Estimation is found useful to overcome typical problems encountered when estimating yield-price responsiveness, such as violations of economic theory, insignificance of estimated parameters and inconsistencies with agronomic knowledge regarding the size of the estimated responses.
... Studies of agricultural development (e.g., Koning, 2008;Alexandratos, 2009;IAASTD, 2009) show lower expected yield growth than studies of the biomass resource potential that report very high technical potentials for biomass plantations (Johnston et al., 2009). Some observations indicate that it can be a challenge to maintain yield growth in several main producer countries and that much cropland and grazing land undergoes degradation and productivity loss as a consequence of improper land use (Cassman, 1999;Pingali and Heisey, 1999;Fischer et al., 2002). ...
This comprehensive exploration of sustainable food waste management in the hospitality industry reveals a pressing need for transformative change. Examining key findings, including staggering statistics, environmental impacts, and regulatory frameworks, underscores the issue's complexity. The industry's commitment to change is evident through innovative approaches like farm-to-table initiatives and emerging technologies, while education and awareness emerge as catalysts for meaningful transformation. Practical steps, from inventory management to circular economy integration, offer a roadmap for implementation. Fostering a sustainability culture within individual establishments and industry-wide collaborations proves essential for lasting change. The conclusion emphasises the hospitality sector's potential to lead a shift towards a more responsible and environmentally conscious future, where conscious practices and waste reduction become integral to the culinary experience.
Phosphorus (P) is the main limiting nutrient in agriculture. Most of the P fertilizers applied to the soil remain ineffective because of the weak movement and transfer of P in the soil. Current agricultural production requires large amounts of P fertilizers, leading to the accumulation of residual P in the soil and serious ecological problems. Fixation of P is a vital reason for limited fertilizer effectiveness. Therefore, improving soil P effectiveness is the key to reducing soil P accumulation. This study explored the effects of different water‐soluble P fertilizers on maize yield and economic benefits by comparing the relationships between soil P distribution and P absorption and utilisation of maize in a calcareous soil of Xinjiang province in China. The main results indicated that (1) the drip application of ammonium polyphosphate (APP) and urea phosphate (UR) was more beneficial for increasing the total P content in the deep soil layer; the drip application of APP was beneficial in increasing the available P content of the deep soil layer. (2) Dripping acid fertilizer was more conducive to reducing soil acidity and alkalinity (pH). (3) The application of different P fertilizers favoured the accumulation of P in all organs of maize, among which APP and UP were the most effective since they increased accumulation by 75.8% and 60.4% (at flowering stage) and 98.2% and 62.3% (at maturity stage), respectively, compared with CK (without P fertilizer). (4) pH was the main factor affecting P uptake and transformation, and the drip application of P fertilizer had the most significant effect on pH. (5) The application of different water‐soluble P fertilizers increased maize yield and economic benefits. Among the five water‐soluble P fertilizers selected in this study, APP had the greatest economic benefits, followed by UP and Monoammonium phosphate (MAP); they increased yields by 31.6%, 24.5%, and 22.0%, respectively, compared with CK.
In the coming decades, communities may become exposed to local food self-insufficiency due to climate change, land degradation and land scarcity. Rapid population growth may exacerbate this. To support mitigating policies, answers are needed to the following two research questions: (i) Where and to what extent will environment-related food self-insufficiency occur or increase over the period from 2015 to 2050 and (ii) How will local communities respond to increased food self-insufficiency? Potential responses to food self-insufficiency are agricultural expansion, agricultural intensification, import, migration, starvation and violent conflict. Answering these research questions is hampered for different reasons. A persistent debate is ongoing on whether environmentally induced food deficit may cause migration and violent conflict at all. Although a clear relationship is assumed as self-evident by many scholars and politicians, as yet no convincing evidence has been found, in contrast to the relevance of socioeconomic factors. Moreover, a lack of consistent and accurate data on local food supply and demand hampers mapping of food self-insufficiency in the present and future. In this article, we explore the difficulties to find a clear relationship between environmentally induced food deficit, migration and violent conflict, and propose and test an operational methodology that does provide preliminary answers to the research questions: the necessary conditions approach. The results are presented in maps and tables of environment-related food self-insufficiency and of plausible responses for 2015 and 2050. Over that period, local food self-insufficiency roughly doubles as well as the number of people living in conditions that favour starvation, migration and violent conflict. The increase in food self-insufficiency is mostly caused by a significant population growth on the one hand—hence the demand side—and a stagnating or even slightly declining food production on the other. In contrast, food self-sufficiency stays high and constant on the global scale.
The Covid pandemic has amplified the hardships people are experiencing from human-induced climate change and its impact on weather extremes. Those in the Majority World are most effected by such global crises, and the pandemic has exposed the vulnerabilities of these populations while highlighting the differences between them and those fortunate to live in the Minority World. This book presents an overview of the impact of the climate emergency punctuated by a pandemic, discussing the expanding inequalities and deteriorating spaces for democratic public engagement. Pandemic responses demonstrate how future technological, engineering, political, social, and behavioural strategies could be constructed in response to other crises. Using a critical analysis of these responses, this book proposes sociotechnical alternatives and just approaches to adapt to cascading crises in the Majority World. It will be valuable for social science students and researchers, policymakers, and anyone interested in inequality and vulnerability in developing countries.
It is often taken for granted that the right products will be available to buy in retail outlets seven days a week, 52 weeks a year. Consumer perception is that of a simple service requirement, but the reality is a complex, time sensitive system - the retail supply chain (RSC). Due to short product life-cycles with uncertain supply and demand behaviour, the RSC faces many challenges and is very vulnerable to disruptions. In addition, external risk events such as BREXIT, extreme weather, the financial crisis, and terror attacks mean there is a need for effective RSC risk management (RSCRM) processes within organisations. Literature shows that although there is an increasing amount of research in RSCRM, it is highly theoretical with limited empirical evidence or applied methodologies. With an active enthusiasm coming from industry practitioners for RSCRM methodologies and support solutions, the RSCRM research community have acknowledged that the main issue for future research is not tools and techniques, but collaborative RSC system wide implementation.
The implementation of a cross-organisational initiative such as RSCRM is a very complex task that requires real-world frameworks for real-world practitioners. Therefore, this research study attempts to explore the business requirements for developing a three-stage integrated RSCRM framework that will encourage extended RSC collaboration. While focusing on the practitioner requirements of RSCRM projects and inspired by the laws of Thermodynamics and the philosophy of System Thinking, in stage one a conceptual reference model, The 𝑃6 Coefficient, was developed building on the formative work of supply chain excellence and business process management. The 𝑃6 Coefficient reference model has been intricately designed to bridge the theoretical gap between practitioner and researcher with the aim of ensuring practitioner confidence in partaking in a complex business process project. Stage two focused on a need for a standardised vocabulary, and through the SCOR11 reference guide, acts as a calibration point for the integrated framework, ensuring easy transfer and application within supply chain industries. In their design, stages one and two are perfect complements to the final stage of the integrated framework, a risk assessment toolbox based on a Hybrid Simulation Study capable of monitoring the disruptive behaviour of a multi-echelon RSC from both a macro and micro level using the techniques of System Dynamics (SD) and Discrete Event Simulation (DES) modelling respectively.
Empirically validated through an embedded mixed methods case study, results of the integrated framework application are very encouraging. The first phase, the secondary exploratory study, gained valuable empirical evidence of the barriers to successfully implementing a complex business project and also validated using simulation as an effective risk assessment tool. Results showed certain high-risk order policy decisions could potentially reduce total costs (TC) by over 55% and reduce delivery times by 3 days. The use of the 𝑃6 Coefficient as the communication/consultation phase of the primary RSCRM case study was hugely influential on the success of the overall hybrid simulation study development and application, with significant increase in both practitioner and researcher confidence in running an RSCRM project. This was evident in the results of the hybrid model’s macro and micro assessment of the RSC. SD results effectively monitored the behaviour of the RSC under important disruptive risks, showing delayed effects to promotions and knowledge loss resulted in a bullwhip effect pattern upstream with the FMCG manufacturer’s TC increasing by as much as €50m. The DES analysis, focusing on the NDC function of the RSC also showed results of TC sensitivity to order behaviour from retailers, although an optimisation based risk treatment has reduced TC by 30%. Future research includes a global empirical validation of the 𝑃6 Coefficient and enhancement of the application of thermodynamic laws in business process management. The industry calibration capabilities of the integrated framework application of the integrated framework will also be extensively tested.
Phosphorus (P) deficiency in soil limits crop yields and can be managed by P fertilizers. But mere applying P fertilizers alone may not be effective in justifying its bioavailability. At present global P reserves are declining in an increasing way which urges us to find out alternatives. Thus, the present work was taken to prepare phosphocompost using water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) as feedstock, termite, and normal soil as bulking agents cum decomposers and enriched with single super phosphate. The effect of phosphocompost on rice(var.ADT-43) productivity, P availability and uptake was evaluated by comparing various P fertilizers (single super phosphate, rock phosphate, di-ammonium phosphate, nano phosphate) combined with or without phosphate solubilizing bacteria (PSB). The experiment was laid out in a completely randomized design with seven treatments including absolute control and replicated thrice. Phosphocompost produced with water hyacinth and termite soil microbes come with superior quality and early maturity compared to normal soil. Pot culture study results revealed that rice growth, yield, P availability and uptake were significantly (p<0.05) higher with SSP + PSB, and Nano phosphate +PSB treated plants, followed by Phosphocompost + PSB. The cost of P fertilizer (Rs/ha) related to yield (kg/ha) was found to be significantly low with phosphocompost (Rs.1132/-) than SSP (Rs.1530/-) and Nano P (Rs.2518/-). Further, phosphocompost combined PSB helps in optimizing the P availability in a long run through P solubilization thus sustained the P uptake. The present investigation brings light to the valorization of water hyacinth as compost will be an effective and economically viable alternative for P fertilizers.
As western-style food systems extend further around the world, food sustainability is becoming an increasingly important issue. Such systems are not sustainable in terms of their consumption of resources, their impact on ecosystems or their effect on health and social inequality. From 2009 to 2011, the duALIne project, led by INRA and CIRAD, assembled a team of experts to investigate food systems downstream of the farm, from the farm gate, to consumption and the disposal of waste. Representing a diverse range of backgrounds spanning academia and the public and private sectors, the project aimed to review the international literature and identify major gaps in our knowledge. This book brings together its key conclusions and insights, presenting state-of-the-art research in food sustainability and identifying priority areas for further study. It will provide a valuable resource for researchers, decision-makers and stakeholders in the food industry.
As western-style food systems extend further around the world, food sustainability is becoming an increasingly important issue. Such systems are not sustainable in terms of their consumption of resources, their impact on ecosystems or their effect on health and social inequality. From 2009 to 2011, the duALIne project, led by INRA and CIRAD, assembled a team of experts to investigate food systems downstream of the farm, from the farm gate, to consumption and the disposal of waste. Representing a diverse range of backgrounds spanning academia and the public and private sectors, the project aimed to review the international literature and identify major gaps in our knowledge. This book brings together its key conclusions and insights, presenting state-of-the-art research in food sustainability and identifying priority areas for further study. It will provide a valuable resource for researchers, decision-makers and stakeholders in the food industry.
As western-style food systems extend further around the world, food sustainability is becoming an increasingly important issue. Such systems are not sustainable in terms of their consumption of resources, their impact on ecosystems or their effect on health and social inequality. From 2009 to 2011, the duALIne project, led by INRA and CIRAD, assembled a team of experts to investigate food systems downstream of the farm, from the farm gate, to consumption and the disposal of waste. Representing a diverse range of backgrounds spanning academia and the public and private sectors, the project aimed to review the international literature and identify major gaps in our knowledge. This book brings together its key conclusions and insights, presenting state-of-the-art research in food sustainability and identifying priority areas for further study. It will provide a valuable resource for researchers, decision-makers and stakeholders in the food industry.
As western-style food systems extend further around the world, food sustainability is becoming an increasingly important issue. Such systems are not sustainable in terms of their consumption of resources, their impact on ecosystems or their effect on health and social inequality. From 2009 to 2011, the duALIne project, led by INRA and CIRAD, assembled a team of experts to investigate food systems downstream of the farm, from the farm gate, to consumption and the disposal of waste. Representing a diverse range of backgrounds spanning academia and the public and private sectors, the project aimed to review the international literature and identify major gaps in our knowledge. This book brings together its key conclusions and insights, presenting state-of-the-art research in food sustainability and identifying priority areas for further study. It will provide a valuable resource for researchers, decision-makers and stakeholders in the food industry.
Rice grain yield and quality declines due to unsuitable temperature induced by wide regions and various sowing dates. This study was aimed to evaluate the effects of temperature at different phenological periods on rice yield and quality, and to obtain suitable temperature for phenological periods in the Yangtze River Basin. Therefore, this study took regional varieties, and experiments of different sowing dates under different areas were carried out in the Yangtze River Basin to observe and compare the differences in rice growth, yield and quality. Results showed that the rice growth, grain yield and quality had significant differences in sowing dates and areas, which were related to the average daily temperature during vegetative period (VT) and the first 20 days of grain filling period (GT20). In addition, there was a smaller variation of the average daily temperature in reproductive period (RT) than that of these two phenological periods. Therefore, according to the VT and GT20 thresholds of different yield and quality, experiment results were divided into 4 scenarios (I, II, Ⅲ, and Ⅳ) in this study. In scenario I, high head rice production (rice grain yield multiply by head rice rate) and rice quality could be obtained; compared with scenario I, the head rice production of scenarios III and IV decreased by 30.1% and 27.6%; in scenario II, the head rice production increased insignificantly while the chalky grain rate and chalkiness were 50.6 and 56.3% higher than those of scenario I, respectively. In conclusion, scenario I combination with VT ranges of 22.8 ℃-23.9 ℃ and GT20 ranges of 24.2℃-27.0℃ or combination with VT ranges from 23.9℃ to 25.3℃, and GT20 ranges from 24.2℃ to 24.9℃ are recommended to achieve the high rice grain yield and quality in the Yangtze River Basin by adjusting sowing date and selecting rice varieties with suitable growth periods.
Precision farming appears to be a better choice for reducing production costs while maximizing productivity in order to alleviate the limitations associated with agricultural farming. A variety of state-of-the-art techniques for improving precision farming practices are available, which are supported by the nanotechnology process, enabling precise control at the nanometer scale. By targeting specific nanoparticles that can minimize damage to nontarget plant tissues, nanotechnology can be used for disease detection and treatment, as well as increasing plant nutrient enhancement ability. The implementation of the machine centric biological nanotechnology can work miracles if they are used properly. Nanotechnology and molecular biology create unknown positions that go unfilled largely because of a lack of highly skilled personnel. Most of the negative impacts of nanotechnology in agriculture are still unknown and can be realized after a certain time of use. Active ingredients with a nanosize can have a higher efficacy and penetration. As technology continues to grow at exponential rates, adopting nanotechnology seems to obsolete more jobs than it creates. The ethical question necessarily comes about the accountability of the nanotechnology used through involvements of the mechanical nanobots. Will they fulfill a mission? This book chapter aims to identify a few of the socio-legal ethical issues involved in adopting the nanotechnology through extensive analysis of the existing literatures available.
Phosphorus usage is irreplaceable in agriculture; however, its excessive use leads to wastage of invaluable resources and significant soil surplus. Agronomic soil phosphorus surplus in Asian regions has a much higher level than the global average. And with rapid urbanization and population growth in the recent decades, Asian countries have seen a rise in environmental pollution levels also. This study assessed the detailed phosphorus budget in the Yamato River catchment, an urbanized coastal catchment in Asia, from 1940s to 2010s using Soil and Water Assessment Tool, comprehensively analyzed the effect of anthropogenic factors on long-term phosphorus loading and agronomic soil phosphorus balance. The results showed the peak period of total phosphorus loading and agronomic soil phosphorus surplus occurred in 1970s, at 895 tons/year and 36.6 kg/ha, respectively. The major reasons for increased phosphorus loading and soil surplus during 1940–1970 were rapid population growth and increased fertilizer usage, respectively. Since the 1980s, the construction of wastewater treatment system and reduction in agricultural land contributed to environmental improvement. These anthropogenic factors had a much stronger impact on phosphorus budget than climate change in the study catchment. Soil phosphorus balance is affected by a combination of factors, such as soil properties, fertilizer usage and applied schedule, precipitation event, and crop types. And soil phosphorus surplus may be severely overestimated if the non-point source loss due to precipitation factor is not fully considered.
SCOPE Newsletter visions for sustainable phosphorus tomorrow contributions
May 2014, pp. 25-26
The climate change, as evidenced by changes in temperature rise and increased CO2 concentration, is a major concern. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global temperature is anticipated to upsurge between 1.1 and 6.4 °C during the twenty-first century followed by alteration in precipitation patterns. Soils are directly linked to the climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Because of this, the altered climate will have an effect on soil processes and properties. In the recent past, there are numerous studies conducted to study the impact of climate change on crop performance and soil properties. These studies indicated that climate change has a negative impact on soil health by increasing soil degradation through the loss of soil organic carbon, soil erosion, salinization, sodification, acidification, etc. Reversing these downward spirals implies the implementation of best-proven technologies, such as conservation agriculture, integrated nutrient management, precision agriculture, and use of biochar. Bringing back degraded soils under cultivation and sustaining soil health by the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices is the only way to combat the negative imprints of climate change on soil health and fulfilling the food demands of the ever-growing population.
Global food and feed demands have been projected to double in the 21st century, which will further increase the pressure on the use of land, water and nutrients. At the same time, the political decisions to support renewable energy sources are accelerating the use of biomass, including grain, sugar, oilseed, and lignocellulosic crops for biofuel and power generation. Government directives — incited by climate change, high oil prices and geo-political tensions — promote partial replacement of fossil fuel by biofuels. Prices and availability of commodities used as staple food and feed are becoming already affected by the growing demand for bioenergy. Many implications of this demand for biofuel on the resource base (land, water, biodiversity), environment, rural economy, food prices and social impacts are unknown. The present study reviews and discusses the opportunities and limits of crops and resources for food, feed and biofuel production. There are gaps in our knowledge regarding the global capacity for sustainable plant-based bioenergy production, while maintaining food security; commercial biomass production will compete with food crops for arable land and scarce fresh water resources. The rapidly growing demand for food, feed and fuel will require a combination of further increases in crop yields (ca. 2% per annum) and a doubling or tripling of resource-use efficiencies, especially of nitrogen-use efficiency and water productivity in production systems with high external inputs, over the next 20 to 30 years. Adaptation of cropping systems to climate change and a better tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses by genetic improvement and by managing diverse cropping systems in a sustainable way will be of key importance. An integrated assessment of resource-use efficiencies, ecological services and economic profitability may guide the choice of crop species and cultivars to be grown in a target environment and region, depending on the added value for specific purposes: food, feed or fuel. To avoid negative impacts on food security, governments should give high priority to 2nd, 3rd and 4th generation technologies for bioenergy.
Recent empirical literature pays increasing attention to farmer‐retail power relations in agricultural supply chains, yet seems to neglect potential differences between prices that primary producers receive for their products. Via both a Markov chain analysis and a hybrid panel data model, we empirically test whether primary producers receive prices in a consistent way and what explains any price differences. Using a unique data set containing individual farm‐specific output prices in various horticultural markets, we show substantial price dispersion across farms and reveal relations between farm characteristics and observed output prices. The Markov analysis shows that the same farms are constantly found in the higher and lower quartiles of the price distribution, implying prices are not distributed randomly. The results of the hybrid panel data model show that characteristics as farm size and production orientation are strongly associated with differences in the obtained output prices as well as the price/cost ratio between farms. [EconLit Citations: D22, D40, L11, Q13].
Enhanced phosphorus (P) release from flooded, anaerobic soils has been extensively studied under summer temperatures but not under cold temperatures with intermittent freeze–thaw events. We investigated the temperature and freeze–thaw effects during flooding on the release of P to floodwater from soil monoliths (15‐cm depth) collected from eight agricultural fields in Manitoba. Soil monoliths were flooded with reverse osmosis water and incubated for 56 d under simulated summer flooding (SSF; 22 ± 1 °C) or snowmelt flooding with intermittent freeze–thaw (IFT; 4 ± 1 °C with intermittent freezing) in triplicates. Redox potential (Eh), pore water and floodwater dissolved reactive P (DRP) concentrations, pH, and concentrations of Ca, Mg, Fe, and Mn were determined weekly. In seven soils, Eh decreased rapidly with days after flooding (DAF) under SSF to values <200 mV but not under IFT. Both pore water and floodwater DRP concentrations significantly increased with DAF in all soils under SSF and in seven soils under IFT. Although DRP concentrations were consistently greater under SSF than IFT in four soils, other soils had similar concentrations at certain DAF. Significant relationships between ion concentrations and redox status that fitted both IFT and SSF data in most soils suggest that similar redox‐driven mechanisms are responsible for the P release; however, less P was released under IFT than under SSF because soils were not severely reduced under IFT. Substantial P release in a few soils under IFT appeared to be unrelated to redox status, suggesting other P release mechanisms that are not redox driven.
Mixed family farms produce almost half of the world food. Increasing food supply in developing countries requires increasing productivity of both land and farmers' labour as key to increase household income, food security and reduce poverty. A research project developed into Uruguayan vegetable family farms (2006-2010) revealed that the main life quality problems were low family income, high work overload, lack of leisure time, and health problems associated with work. In many of these farms, labour productivity was lower than the opportunity cost of labour. Understanding labour productivity determinants would help to guide co-innovation processes of family farm systems. The objective of this study was to develop and apply a method to analyze labour productivity (LP) at farm level, identifying the main causes of low LP, to use its results in a co-innovation process. We selected 14 vegetable-beef cattle farms with different resource endowment. The method developed involved characterization and quantification of labour allocation to farm activities, calculation of technical coefficients that explained LP and quantification of improvement scenarios. The first scenario estimated the impact of farm redesign plans and the second one added the effect of mechanizing some tasks. LP was lower than the opportunity cost of labour (4 USD h −1) in 10 out of 14 farms. LP in vegetable production (LPv) was explained by both, net return (NR, $ kg −1) and labour efficiency (LE, kg h −1). LE correlated with the amount of product sold (APS, kg of vegetables or meet per year). LP in beef cattle production (LPb) was lower than LPv. LPb was higher on farms with more than 80 cattle units (CU) and 60 ha due to lower labour per ha and per CU showing a scale effect. Projected scenarios showed that LP could be tripled by improving resource allocation, and crop and animals management. Mechanizing some labour consuming tasks could further increase LP by 12 %. This study contributes to co-innovation methodology development by adding labour productivity analysis at diagnosis stage and using the results to aid participatory development of applicable and appropriate strategies to increase family farm systems sustainability.
The nutritional transition currently occurring in Asia is one facet of a more general demographic/nutritional/epidemiological transition that accompanies development and urbanization. The nutritional transition is marked by a shift away from relatively monotonous diets of varying nutritional quality toward an industrialized diet that is usually more varied, includes more preprocessed food, more food of animal origin, more added sugar and fat, and often more alcohol. This is accompanied by shift in the structure of occupations and leisure toward reduced physical activity, and leads to a rapid increase in the numbers of overweight and obese. The accompanying epidemiological transition is marked by a shift away from endemic deficiency and infectious diseases toward chronic diseases such as obesity, adult-onset diabetes, hypertension, stroke, hyperlipidaemia, coronary heart disease, and cancer. Obesity is now a major public health problem in Asia. Obesity is a problem of the urban poor as well as the rich, and the urban poor have the added predisposing factors associated with low birthweight.
Alors que les gains à attendre suite à la libéralisation des échanges, en particulier pour les PED, sont généralement présentés comme essentiels aux progrès de la lutte contre la pauvreté, cette étude souligne leur faiblesse lorsqu'ils sont exprimés en termes relatifs et leur sensibilité aux hypothèses réalisées sur le fonctionnement des marchés. En effet, alors que l'imperfection de l'information est largement admise, parmi les spécialistes, comme caractéristiques des marchés agricoles, sa prise en compte dans le modèle transforme des gains extrêmement faibles en pertes parfois importantes, soulignant ainsi l'utilité sociale des politiques agricoles.
Knowledge of the changes in physiological traits associated with genetic gains in yield potential is essential to improve understanding of yield-limiting factors and to inform future breeding strategies. Our objective was to identify physiological traits associated with genetic gains in grain yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in the UK. The growth and development of eight representative cultivars introduced from 1972 to 1995 (one tall rht-D1b cultivar and seven RHt-D1b, formerly RhT2, semidwarf cultivars) was examined in Field experiments at Sutton Boningfon in 1996-1997, 1997-1998, and 1998-1999. A linear genetic gain in grain yield of 0.12 Mg ha-1 yr-1 (1.2% yr-1) was positively correlated with both harvest index (HI) and aboveground biomass; a quadratic function fitted to the data showed that progress in HI was most apparent during the earlier phase of the 23-yr period, whereas biomass contributed most since about 1983. There was a linear increase across time of 217 grains m-2 yr-1, but no change in grain weight. Significant genetic changes across time and correlations with grain yield were also found for preanthesis radiation-use efficiency (RUE, 0.012 g MJ-1 yr-1) and water soluble carbohydrate (WSC) content of stems and leaf sheaths at anthesis (4.6 g m-2 yr-1). Our results suggest that recent genetic gains in grain yield have been based on a combination of improved growth rate in the preanthesis period, which has driven increases in number of grains per square meter, and a larger source for grain filling through increases in stem soluble carbohydrate reserves.
This paper addresses the question of whether there has been an increase in yield potential of maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids released in the north-central United States since the advent of the “Green Revolution” that began in the late 1960s. Because there are few published data about hybrid growth rates and yield-determining plant traits when grown at yield potential levels, we attempt to address this issue indirectly by evaluation of maize breeding efforts, changes in plant traits of commercial hybrids, and by comparison of statewide average yield trends and yield trends in sanctioned yield contests. On the basis of these sources of information and a definition of yield potential as the yield that can be achieved with an adapted hybrid when grown without obvious stress of any kind, we found that there is conflicting evidence to support the hypothesis that maize yield potential has increased. We recommend experimental approaches to quantify and investigate the determinants of maize yield potential in the north-central United States and for use in breeding hybrids with greater yield potential.
Biomass represents an abundant carbon-neutral renewable resource for the production of bioenergy and biomaterials, and its
enhanced use would address several societal needs. Advances in genetics, biotechnology, process chemistry, and engineering
are leading to a new manufacturing concept for converting renewable biomass to valuable fuels and products, generally referred
to as the biorefinery. The integration of agroenergy crops and biorefinery manufacturing technologies offers the potential
for the development of sustainable biopower and biomaterials that will lead to a new manufacturing paradigm.
When, why, and how early humans began to eat meat are three of the most fundamental unresolved questions in the study of human origins. Before 2.5 million years ago the presence and importance of meat in the hominid diet is unkown. After stone tools appear in the fossil record it seems clear that meat was eaten in increasing quantities, but whether it was obtained through hunting or scavenging remains a topic of intense debate. This book takes a novel and strongly interdisciplinary approach to the role of meat in the early hominid diet, inviting well-known researchers who study the human fossil record, modern hunter-gatherers, and nonhuman primates to contribute chapters to a volume that integrates these three perspectives. Stanford’s research has been on the ecology of hunting by wild chimpanzees. Bunn is an archaeologist who has worked on both the fossil record and modern foraging people. This will be a reconsideration of the role of hunting, scavening, and the uses of meat in light of recent data and modern evolutionary theory. There is currently no other book, nor has there ever been, that occupies the niche this book will create for itself.
When, why, and how early humans began to eat meat are three of the most fundamental unresolved questions in the study of human origins. Before 2.5 million years ago the presence and importance of meat in the hominid diet is unkown. After stone tools appear in the fossil record it seems clear that meat was eaten in increasing quantities, but whether it was obtained through hunting or scavenging remains a topic of intense debate. This book takes a novel and strongly interdisciplinary approach to the role of meat in the early hominid diet, inviting well-known researchers who study the human fossil record, modern hunter-gatherers, and nonhuman primates to contribute chapters to a volume that integrates these three perspectives. Stanford’s research has been on the ecology of hunting by wild chimpanzees. Bunn is an archaeologist who has worked on both the fossil record and modern foraging people. This will be a reconsideration of the role of hunting, scavening, and the uses of meat in light of recent data and modern evolutionary theory. There is currently no other book, nor has there ever been, that occupies the niche this book will create for itself.
It is worthwhile to have a preview of the background of official econonic assistance. In the wake of independence of a large number of former colonies in Asia and Africa, at the end of the second World War and around the time when the Marshal Plan was being implemented in Europe, the former coloilies started to get the attention of their erstwhile colonisers who, in a vast majority of cases, did not want all ties with the periphery sapped all of a sudden. There were political, strategic, commercial and humanitarian consideration for this. The vast new world was viewed in the centres as a potential market for their exports. In addition was the thought of building up zones of influence in these newly independent countries where the way of life would be, given adequate support, on the pattern of the centres. Economic advancement of these countries was viewed as a major factor for sustaining non-inflationary growth in the industrial countries. A sort of interdependence of welfare functions of the peoples living in the two largely disparate worlds was also perceived by many in the industrial countries. There should not be a partage of the world between the very rich and the very poor, many felt obliged to concede. Aid was viewed as 'present day largesse produced by a feeling of post imperial guilt.
div>The interaction between humans and their natural environment today is unprecedented in its scope and complexity, and recent scholarly research attests to the need for a multidisciplinary approach to fully study it. Mappae Mundi answers this call for a scholarly synthesis, illuminating dominant social trends affecting the relationship between human societies and the environment.
Contributors discuss this relationship, and analyze several different possibilities for the future. Mappae Mundi will appeal to social scientists or anyone interested in the current and future consequences of our interaction with the natural environment.</div
English Population History from Family Reconstitution 1580–1837 is the most important single contribution to English historical demography since Wrigley and Schofield's Population History of England. It represents the culmination of work carried out at the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure over the past quarter-century. This work demonstrates the value of the technique of family reconstitution as a means of obtaining accurate and detailed information about fertility, morality, and nuptiality in the past. Indeed, more is now known about many aspects of English demography in the parish register period than about the post-1837 period when the Registrar-General collected and published information. Using data from 26 parishes, the authors show clearly that their results are representative not only of the demographic situation of the parishes from which the data were drawn, but also of the country as a whole. Some very surprising features of the behaviour of past populations are brought to light for the first time.
This text offers insight into one of the classic questions of history: why did sustained industrial growth begin in Northwest Europe, despite surprising similarities between advanced areas of Europe and East Asia? As the author shows, as recently as 1750, parallels between these two parts of the world were very high in life expectancy, consumption, product and factor markets, and the strategies of households. Perhaps most surprisingly, he demonstrates that the Chinese and Japanese cores were no worse off ecologically than Western Europe. Core areas throughout the eighteenth-century Old World faced comparable local shortages of land-intensive products, shortages that were only partly resolved by trade. The author argues that Europe's nineteenth-century divergence from the Old World owes much to the fortunate location of coal, which substituted for timber. This made Europe's failure to use its land intensively much less of a problem, while allowing growth in energy-intensive industries. Another crucial difference that he notes has to do with trade. Fortuitous global conjunctures made the Americas a greater source of needed primary products for Europe than any Asian periphery. This allowed Northwest Europe to grow dramatically in population, specialize further in manufactures, and remove labor from the land, using increased imports rather than maximizing yields. Together, coal and the New World allowed Europe to grow along resource-intensive, labor-saving paths. Meanwhile, Asia hit a cul-de-sac. Although the East Asian hinterlands boomed after 1750, both in population and in manufacturing, this growth prevented these peripheral regions from exporting vital resources to the cloth-producing Yangzi Delta. As a result, growth in the core of East Asia's economy essentially stopped, and what growth did exist was forced along labor-intensive, resource-saving paths, paths Europe could have been forced down, too, had it not been for favorable resource stocks from underground and overseas.
China's population is growing by 14 million people a year. Incomes are climbing at a record rate, which means that even as the number of people increases, their consumption of meat is increasing even faster. And while the resulting surge in demand is occurring, the country's capacity to produce food is projected to shrink, due to the massive ongoing conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses. The author argues that the issue now facing Beijing is not starvation, but the prospect of a gap between the market demand for food and its production - a gap that will dwarf anything the world has even seen. -from Authors
Conventional wisdom is that investments in agricultural R and D have yielded handsome dividends for society, more than enough to justify past investments and to support increased funding in the future. Many cite annual rates of return in the range of 40-60 percent as the norm, although some have suggested that these estimates are biased upwards or represent a partial and possibly biased sample of the overall rate-of-return evidence. Past reviews of the evidence on rates of return to agricultural research have been generally descriptive in nature, usually ad hoc, and always partial. The entire body of work has not been subjected to systematic, quantitative scrutiny of the types needed if we were to adequately answer various questions that have relevance to decisionmakers concerned with agricultural R and D. We assembled 292 studies reporting a total of 1,886 rate of return estimates-an average of 6.5 estimates per published study. About one-third of the publications were in refereed journals. Few (21 percent) of the published rate of return estimates fall within the range of conventional wisdom of 40-60 percent per year. Excluding two extreme outlier observations (724,323 and 455,290 percent per year), the average rate of return was 100 percent per year for research, 85 percent for extension, 48 percent for studies that estimated the returns to research and extension jointly, and 81 percent for all the studies combined. However, these averages give an incomplete and in some important ways misleading picture. The rate of return estimates are widely dispersed around their respective averages. For example, studies of returns to research reported estimates of annual rates of return ranging from -7.4 percent to 5,645 percent. To demonstrate the effects of skewness on measures of central tendency in the various distributions of estimates of rates of return, we report the mode (the value of the most frequent observation) and median (the central value when observations are arrayed by size), in addition to the mean (or simple average). The median of the rate of return estimates was 48.0 percent per year for research, 62.9 percent for extension studies, 37 percent for studies that estimated the returns to research and extension jointly, and 44.3 percent for all studies combined. This is almost half the corresponding average, indicating significant positive skewness in the distribution of rates of return. What accounts for the substantial variation in the reported rates of returns? We posited a number of factors, grouped into four broad categories: Characteristics of the rate of return measure (for example, real versus nominal measures, ex post versus ex ante, average versus marginal, private versus social) Characteristics of the analysts performing the evaluation (factors intended to reveal possible bias or differences in precision of the measures associated with the attributes of the person or group that generated the estimate, or differences in the methods and approaches used that are not revealed by our other proxies) Characteristics of the research being evaluated (for example, the field of science, commodity class, type of technology, time period and geographical location, and institutional scope of the research being evaluated) Features of the evaluation (details of the methodologies used to estimate the returns to research, like the structure and length of the lag between R and D spending and its productivity consequences).
I. Introduction, 227. — II. Akerman's argument, 229. — III. Reformulation in terms of adaptive expectations, 230. — IV. An
alternative but equivalent formulation, 233. — V. Some empirical results, 236. — VI. More complicated models, 238. — VII.
Conclusions, 240.
West African landscapes are generally considered as degraded, especially
on the forest edge. This unique study shows how wrong that view can be,
by revealing how inhabitants have enriched their land when scientists
believe they have degraded it. Historical and anthropological methods
demonstrate how intelligent African farmers' own land management can be,
while scientists and policy makers have misunderstood the African
environment. The book provides a new framework for ecological
anthropology, and a challenge to old assumptions about the African
landscape.