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Uncovering divergences in parking payment behavior

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... While the work outlined in this paper focuses on fitting predictive count models, the MetaCountRegressor package can also be applied to linear regression. An implementation of MetaCountRegressor for linear regression can be found in Florian Heraud et al. (2025), which focuses on identifying the best specification for differences in parking payments, as well as the relationship between the amount spent and the remaining time. ...
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{Analyzing and modeling rare events in count data presents significant challenges due to the scarcity of observations and the complexity of underlying processes, which are often overlooked by analysts due to limitations in time, resources, knowledge, and the influence of biases. This paper introduces MetaCountRegressor, a Python package designed to facilitate predictive count modeling of rare events guided by metaheuristics. The MetaCountRegressor package offers a wide range of functionalities specifically tailored for the unique characteristics of rare event prediction. This package offers a collection of metaheuristic algorithms that efficiently explore the solution space, facilitating effective optimisation and parameter tuning. These algorithms are specifically engineered to deal with the inherent challenges of modeling rare events for predictive purposes, and capturing causative effects that are easily interpretable. State-of-the-art models are produced by the decision-based optimization framework. This includes the ability to capture unobserved heterogeneity through random parameters and allows for correlated and grouped random parameters. It also supports a range of distributions for the random parameters, and can capture heterogeneity in the means. The package also supports panel data, among other features, and serves as a systematic framework for analysts to discover optimization-driven results, saving time, reducing biases, and minimizing the need for extensive prior knowledge.
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A case study of how big-data analytics can help to evaluate the effectiveness of existing policies and to formulate new policies is presented in this paper. The District Department of Transportation (DOT) in Washington, D.C., analyzed data for meter time limit adherence, identifying “overstays” at on-street metered parking spaces beyond the prescribed time limit. This analysis assessed the prevalence of meter overstays, citation patterns, and characteristics of that area. This information could help to determine the validity of existing time limits and develop a pricing structure that would shift longer-duration parkers to off-street garages. The analysis of overstays was conducted by using parking transaction data from the District DOT’s pay-by-cell program, transactions at networked single- and multispace meters, and parking citation data for overstays. Maps were created to identify areas experiencing historically, chronically, or persistently high rates of overstays. An assessment based on existing lan...
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Commercial vehicles are of particular interest in parking enforcement because of their heavy presence in central business districts and their recurrent behavior of illegal parking. To deter illegal commercial vehicle parking, enforcement policies are defined by the citation fine and level of enforcement. This paper investigates how rational carriers react to a policy under steady state equilibrium conditions. To model the equilibrium, the paper uses the theory of bilateral searching and meeting where enforcement units meet illegally parked commercial vehicles at a rate which depends on the size of the two agents (illegally parked commercial vehicles and enforcement units). In assessing policy effectiveness, two objectives are defined which are profit maximization and social cost minimization. With the two objectives, the paper presents three market regimes and studies the equilibrium of each market. The proposed model covers several gaps in the parking literature by introducing illegal parking behavior elasticity with respect to parking dwell time, level of enforcement, citation fine, and citation probability. The model is applied on a case study of the City of Toronto and the results show that the citation probability increases with dwell time and the level of enforcement. Increasing either the citation fine or level of enforcement will hinder illegal parking but the obtained profit remains approximately constant. Sensitivity analysis on the meeting rate elasticity shows that profits are low when both elasticities are either high or low.
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This paper reviews the literature on parking with an emphasis on economic issues. Parking is not just one of the most important intermediate goods in the economy; it is also a vast use of land. Many theoretical and empirical papers analyze the quantity and pricing of parking by concentrating on particular aspects of the issue. The aspects covered in this review are cruising for parking, spatial competition, (minimum and maximum) parking requirements, parking pricing and road pricing in the bottleneck model, and temporal-spatial pricing. Various forms of parking, including residential parking, shopping mall parking, and employer-provided parking, are also reviewed before identifying understudied topics that should be on the research agenda.
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The mixed logit model is considered to be the most promising state of the art discrete choice model currently available. Increasingly researchers and practitioners are estimating mixed logit models of various degrees of sophistication with mixtures of revealed preference and stated choice data. It is timely to review progress in model estimation since the learning curve is steep and the unwary are likely to fall into a chasm if not careful. These chasms are very deep indeed given the complexity of the mixed logit model. Although the theory is relatively clear, estimation and data issues are far from clear. Indeed there is a great deal of potential mis-inference consequent on trying to extract increased behavioural realism from data that are often not able to comply with the demands of mixed logit models. Possibly for the first time we now have an estimation method that requires extremely high quality data if the analyst wishes to take advantage of the extended behavioural capabilities of such models. This paper focuses on the new opportunities offered by mixed logit models and some issues to be aware of to avoid misuse of such advanced discrete choice methods by the practitioner.
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Previous work in the economic theory of parking has treated parkers as homogeneous. In almost all policy contexts, however, heterogeneity among individuals matters not only quantitatively but also qualitatively. For example, providing both tolled and untolled alternatives allows those with high values of time to pay largely with money and those with low values of time to pay only with time. This paper extends the authors' (2009) integrated model of parking and traffic congestion in an isotropic downtown in steady state to treat heterogeneity in the value of time and parking duration. It develops the theory, and then presents an extended numerical example that applies the theory to several policy scenarios. With homogeneous individuals, underpricing curbside parking leads to wasteful cruising for parking. With heterogeneous individuals, however, curbside time limits can be used to ration out those with longer parking durations, so that cruising for parking is eliminated. With curbside parking time limits, underpricing curbside parking downtown may be a sound policy response to the free parking provided by suburban shopping centers.
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The objective of this research is to investigate the behavior of Greek drivers with respect to their parking behavior through a staged approach. Available data collected from previous traffic studies was augmented with data collected by the authors for the year 2010, thus establishing different time periods and allowing comparisons over time (besides among the survey locations). First, at the national level, illegal parking behavior is examined in six Greek cities. Specifically, three of these cities are placed in Athens and the other three are smaller Greek cities. Second, the evolution of controlled parking systems in Athens is investigated by analyzing available data (as well as data collected within the scope of this study) and observing the change of parking characteristics, compliance and enforcement level.
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This paper addresses and extends upon the recent upsurge of interest in market-oriented reform of parking policy, which has been reinvigorated by the work of Donald Shoup. His market-oriented approach to parking policy is shown to be the more ambitious of two distinct challenges to the conventional supply-focused approach. The other is 'parking management'. However, off-street parking markets and their post-reform dynamics have been neglected so far in proposals to deregulate the quantity of off-street parking. The paper highlights additional barriers to the emergence of off-street parking markets and several likely problems within them. Rather than suggesting the rejection of market-oriented parking policy, these findings are taken to imply a need for a more vigorous policy effort than has so far been called for. Achieving well-functioning off-street parking markets would require efforts both to actively foster such markets and to regulate to ensure their health. Deregulation would not be enough.
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Multiple linear regression (MLR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models are used for estimating parking demand in areas with paid short stay parking systems. These models have been applied to the city of Santander (Cantabria, Spain) to check their goodness of fit and their predictive ability. The results show the main advantages and disadvantages of using GWR models. The technique proved to be useful in this case study because it offered a better fit and made better predictions in a scenario showing a certain degree of spatial heterogeneity unexplained by any of the variables introduced into the global model. However, the GWR model also presented situations of local correlation although this was considered moderate given the results provided by the variance inflation factors and the local condition indexes.
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This paper is the first to look at cruising for parking from an economic perspective. We present a downtown parking model that integrates traffic congestion and saturated on-street parking; the stock of cars cruising for parking adds to traffic congestion. Two major results emerge from the model, one of which is robust. The robust one is that, whether or not the amount of on-street parking is optimal, it is efficient to raise the on-street parking fee to the point where cruising for parking is eliminated without parking becoming unsaturated. The other is that, if the parking fee is fixed at a sub-optimal level, it is second-best optimal to increase the amount of curbside allocated to parking until cruising for parking is eliminated without parking becoming unsaturated
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