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Assessment of a Tailings Dam Breach by Experimental, Numerical, and Gene-Expression Programming Model

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Arian Eghbali
Arian Eghbali
Arian Eghbali
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Mehdi Soltanabadi
Mehdi Soltanabadi
Mehdi Soltanabadi
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Mitra Javan
Mitra Javan
Mitra Javan
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Omid Mohseni
Omid Mohseni
Omid Mohseni
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Abstract and Figures

Empirical evidence from documented tailings dam failures highlights the severe consequences for economic systems, human lives, and ecological integrity. The spatial distribution and depositional configuration of tailings within the impoundment structure are regarded as the critical factors influencing the heterogeneous behavioral responses during failure events. This study uses experimental and numerical approaches to investigate the influence of a lateral slope of non-liquefied tailings on localized tailings dam breach mechanisms. The HEC-RAS 2D model was employed to simulate failure scenarios, with the numerical model calibrated against experimental data to evaluate flow characteristics and hydrograph profiles under conditions with and without a lateral slope. Gene-Expression Programming (GEP) was successfully applied to predict flood hydrographs at the failure location based on the simulated data. Results indicate that erosion in the direction perpendicular to the dam is more pronounced in the presence of a lateral tailings slope compared to the scenario without a lateral slope. While a 2% lateral slope exerts minimal influence on the outflow hydrograph, it reduces tailings erosion from the reservoir by approximately 1.3 times in localized failure scenarios. The GEP-derived formula demonstrated high accuracy in computing the flood hydrograph, offering a reliable approach for predicting tailings dam breach-induced flooding.
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Received: 21 January 2025 / Accepted: 7 March 2025
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025
Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Assessment of a Tailings Dam Breach by Experimental,
Numerical, and Gene-Expression Programming Model
ArianEghbali1· MehdiSoltanabadi1· MitraJavan1· OmidMohseni2
Water Resources Management
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-025-04172-z
Abstract
Empirical evidence from documented tailings dam failures highlights the severe conse-
quences for economic systems, human lives, and ecological integrity. The spatial distri-
bution and depositional conguration of tailings within the impoundment structure are
regarded as the critical factors inuencing the heterogeneous behavioral responses during
failure events. This study uses experimental and numerical approaches to investigate the
inuence of a lateral slope of non-liqueed tailings on localized tailings dam breach mech-
anisms. The HEC-RAS 2D model was employed to simulate failure scenarios, with the
numerical model calibrated against experimental data to evaluate ow characteristics and
hydrograph proles under conditions with and without a lateral slope. Gene-Expression
Programming (GEP) was successfully applied to predict ood hydrographs at the failure
location based on the simulated data. Results indicate that erosion in the direction perpen-
dicular to the dam is more pronounced in the presence of a lateral tailings slope compared
to the scenario without a lateral slope. While a 2% lateral slope exerts minimal inuence
on the outow hydrograph, it reduces tailings erosion from the reservoir by approximately
1.3 times in localized failure scenarios. The GEP-derived formula demonstrated high ac-
curacy in computing the ood hydrograph, oering a reliable approach for predicting
tailings dam breach-induced ooding.
Keywords Numerical Model · Tailings Dam Failure · Flood Hydrograph · Tailings
Slope · Experiment · Sediment · Gene-Expression Programming
1 Introduction
In recent years, mining operations for mineral extraction have increasingly faced signicant
hazards, and tailings dam failures are rising (Lin et al. 2022). Tailings dams are critical
structures that store waste materials generated during mining processes. These tailings are
often deposited in dams with longitudinal or lateral slopes, and in some cases, water is
stored above the tailings to control dust or mitigate aerial pollution. The extent of down-
stream damage following a tailings dam failure is highly sensitive to factors such as water
1 3
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