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Ethiopia’s Tigray Region on the Brink: An Urgent Call for Peace and Action
Prologue
The Tigray War, which ignited in November 2020, represents a catastrophic conflict with far-
reaching implications for the Horn of Africa. This brutal confrontation involved the Ethiopian
National Defense Force (ENDF), in coalition with the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), Amhara
militias, and various regional special forces, opposing the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
The conflict has unveiled deep-seated ethnic and political tensions, resulting in egregious human
rights violations and widespread devastation. Reports indicate that the war has claimed hundreds
of thousands of civilian lives and displaced millions. Although hostilities were ostensibly curtailed
by the Pretoria Agreement, the enduring effects are dire, exacerbating political instability, social
fragmentation, and economic ruin, with escalating humanitarian needs throughout the region.
Post Pretoria Tigray: Fragmented Authority and Rising Tensions
The Pretoria Agreement, signed on November 2, 2022, between the Federal Government of
Ethiopia and the TPLF, sought to terminate the devastating Tigray War. This pivotal agreement
outlined essential objectives, including an immediate cessation of hostilities, restoration of
constitutional order, civilian protection, humanitarian access, disarmament of Tigray Defense
Forces (TDF), and the promotion of reconciliation. It also proposed the establishment of an
inclusive Interim Regional Administration (TIA) to govern Tigray temporarily, aimed at fostering
stability and facilitating recovery. However, the TIA has faced considerable challenges, including
internal power struggles within the TPLF and criticisms regarding its structure and leadership.
Initial expectations for the agreement were optimistic, anticipating a swift return to stability and
the restoration of essential services.
Regrettably, the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement has encountered significant delays,
particularly concerning the Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) of
combatants, the repatriation of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), and the withdrawal of external
forces. The agreement mandated the disarmament of TDF within 30 days, a timeline that has not
been adhered. While some heavy weaponry has been relinquished, the core elements of DDR
remain incomplete. The safe repatriation of IDPs has been indefinitely postponed, leaving millions
still displaced. The continued presence of Eritrean and Amhara forces has perpetuated violence
and ethnic cleansing.
Once a dominant entity in Ethiopian politics, the TPLF now grapples with significant internal
divisions that jeopardize governance and regional stability in Tigray. These rifts, exacerbated by
the aftermath of the Tigray War and challenges in implementing the Pretoria Agreement, pose
critical risks to the region's fragile peace. The leadership crisis within the TPLF is characterized
by a power struggle between two factions. One faction, aligned with TIA leaders such as President
Getachew Reda, seeks to implement the Pretoria Agreement and rebuild the region accordingly.
In contrast, the faction led by former President Debretsion Gebremichael appears intent on
regaining power, undermining the essence of the agreement. This faction's efforts to destabilize
the interim administration have resulted in paralysis of effective governance and delays in the
agreement's implementation. Accusations of sabotage against the TIA have emerged, with the
headquarters faction attempting to delegitimize it as an extension of the federal government,
ultimately leading to dysfunction within the interim regional administration. The political rifts
within the TPLF have resulted in a fragmented governance system in Tigray, with the TIA
struggling against internal conflict, resource shortages, and a lack of functional authority.
The ongoing crisis in Tigray is further exacerbated by a critically weakened TIA, which has proven
incapable of addressing the myriad challenges facing the region. This governance deficit has
stymied postwar reconstruction efforts, leaving Tigray mired in disrepair. The absence of effective
governance has also contributed to rampant insecurity, manifesting in widespread intra-
community conflicts and pervasive human rights violations. Economic hardship is profound, with
soaring unemployment and lack of access to basic necessities fueling a pervasive sense of
hopelessness. Consequently, the region is experiencing a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions
at risk of starvation and lacking essential resources. The TIA's inability to provide basic services
and protection has eroded public trust, further destabilizing the region and exacerbating the
suffering of its populace.
Recent decisions by TDF leadership have escalated security threats and undermined the fragile
peace established by the Pretoria Agreement. Initially, Tigrayan security forces adopted a neutral
stance, advocating for peaceful dispute resolution. However, a pivotal moment occurred on
January 23, 2025, when approximately 200 senior leaders of the Tigray forces declared their
allegiance to the Debretsion faction of the TPLF. This action, characterized as a “coup” by interim
administration president Getachew, involved demands for the reorganization of the interim
administration, seeking to replace members of the Interim Regional Administration council with
those loyal to the Debretsion-led TPLF. This power grab ignited widespread opposition and
popular protests, drawing criticism from various segments of the regional community, including
those in the diaspora. Notably, the Global Society of Tigrian Scholars and Professionals (GSTS)
and the Union of Tigrians Living in Europe issued statements opposing the decision, asserting that
it falls outside their official mandate and is detrimental to the peace-loving regional community.
In addition, the regional community has officially opposed the decision through various
demonstrations. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) documented 31
demonstrations occurring across major and minor towns between January 25 and 27, with 18
opposing and 13 supporting the decision, the latter organized by the TPLF faction led by
Debretsion. This reflects profound community divisions along administrative lines and highlights
the deep social unrest following the TDF leaders' decision.
Amidst this volatile atmosphere, many residents have withdrawn substantial sums from banks,
driven by fears of impending violence, while prices of essential goods have surged throughout
Tigray. A notable number of individuals have begun migrating to the national capital, Addis Ababa,
in anticipation of renewed conflict, evidenced by an increase in daily flights from Mekelle to Addis
Ababa, rising from an average of four to nine flights per day. Moreover, reports suggest that
factions within the TPLF, led by Debretsion, alongside the Tigray Defense Forces, are actively
seeking collaboration with Eritrean forces in preparation for potential confrontations with the
federal government, which further implies the precarious security situation.
Related to this, former Ethiopian President Dr. Mulatu Teshome has published a piece warning
that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki is actively seeking to reignite conflict in northern Ethiopia
by manipulating divisions within the TPLF leadership, posing a significant risk of another
devastating war. He also criticizes the Eritrean regime, asserting that “war is the main business”
of the state, which thrives on conflict and division. The internal political rift within the TPLF, if
exploited by Eritrean leadership, heightens the risk of violent conflict, underscoring the precarious
security situation in the region. Thus, he calls upon the international community to help prevent
this potential conflict.
Conclusion and ways forward
Ethiopia's Tigray region teeters on the precipice of catastrophic conflict, as escalating tensions and
political manipulation threaten to plunge the area into deeper chaos. Ignoring these pressing issues
will perpetuate a vicious cycle of instability, displacement, economic devastation, and egregious
human rights violations. To avert this dire trajectory, it is crucial to adopt a resolute commitment
to social justice, inclusive governance, and comprehensive peacebuilding, thereby securing a
sustainable and prosperous future for the people of Tigray—an outcome with profound
implications for Ethiopia and the broader region. To this end, prioritizing the unconditional
execution of the Pretoria Agreement is imperative. This entails the complete disarmament of
combatants, the withdrawal of external forces, the restoration of the region’s territorial integrity,
and the safe return of IDPs. The timely implementation of these elements will not only restore
peace but also cultivate an environment conducive to dialogue and reconciliation. Furthermore,
enhancing governance is a critical step in this process, necessitating the implementation of
inclusive political reforms that strengthen the capacity of the TIA. It is essential to create a political
landscape that facilitates constructive participation from all stakeholders, including civil society
organizations, the media, the business sector, and opposition parties. While the TIA has made
strides toward inclusivity, further efforts are required to integrate those who have been excluded.
Establishing comprehensive post-war reconstruction programs is vital to address both the visible
and invisible scars inflicted by the conflict. These initiatives should focus on economic recovery,
social stability, and political reconstruction, ensuring that they meet the holistic needs of affected
populations. Building democratic institutions that prioritize social justice and uphold
accountability in the region is paramount. To mitigate the critical risk of military mutiny and deter
the unmandated actions of the TDF leadership, comprehensive security sector reform must be
implemented. This reform should emphasize the establishment of accountable and transparent
military structures, fostering a culture of discipline and respect for democratic principles. Crucially,
depoliticizing the TDF is essential to ensure that military decisions are guided by national security
imperatives rather than political considerations. Finally, the international community has a pivotal
role to play in halting the potential descent into war, facilitating necessary reforms, and promoting
reconciliation efforts. Initiatives must be established to ensure compliance from all parties
involved in the peace agreement, thereby reinforcing their commitment to lasting peace and
stability. The path forward is fraught with challenges, but with concerted effort and unwavering
dedication, a brighter future for Tigray and Ethiopia can be achieved.
By: Assefa Leake Gebru, PhD
Mekelle University, Department of Political Science and Strategic Studies
Can be contacted via: visitassie@yahoo.com