Transforming Maasai Landscapes: Land Cover Changes and Their Implications for Pastoralism and Conservation

Abstract

Land cover change, particularly in landscapes inhabited by pastoralist communities like the Maasai, is a growing concern due to its environmental and socio-economic implications. The Maasai regions in Tanzania have experienced significant land cover shifts in recent years, which can affect biodiversity, ecosystem services, and traditional livelihoods. Despite the importance of these landscapes, there is limited understanding of how specific land cover types, such as rangelands, croplands, and tree cover, have changed over time, and what the drivers behind these changes are. To address this gap, this study examines the extent and nature of land cover changes in Maasai landscapes between 2017 and 2023. The study specifically focuses on the conversion of rangelands to other land uses, such as tree cover, croplands, and built areas, as well as the shifts from trees to cropland and built areas. By analyzing these trends, the study aims to provide insights into the factors driving land cover change and their implications for land management in the region. The findings reveal substantial transitions, including the conversion of 451,514 hectares of rangeland to tree cover, 152,064 hectares to cropland, and 10,181 hectares to built areas. These results highlight the urgent need for strategies that support sustainable land use while considering the ecological and socio-economic importance of Maasai landscapes.

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Transforming Maasai Landscapes: Land Cover Changes and
Their Implications for Pastoralism and Conservation
Richard A. Giliba
Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology
Research Article
Keywords: Land cover change, Rangeland conversion, Maasai landscapes, Agricultural expansion, Pastoralism,
Sustainable land use
Posted Date: February 3rd, 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5911943/v1
License:   This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.  Read Full License
Additional Declarations: No competing interests reported.

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Abstract
Land cover change, particularly in landscapes inhabited by pastoralist communities like the Maasai, is a growing concern
due to its environmental and socio-economic implications. The Maasai regions in Tanzania have experienced signicant
land cover shifts in recent years, which can affect biodiversity, ecosystem services, and traditional livelihoods. Despite the
importance of these landscapes, there is limited understanding of how specic land cover types, such as rangelands,
croplands, and tree cover, have changed over time, and what the drivers behind these changes are. To address this gap,
this study examines the extent and nature of land cover changes in Maasai landscapes between 2017 and 2023. The
study specically focuses on the conversion of rangelands to other land uses, such as tree cover, croplands, and built
areas, as well as the shifts from trees to cropland and built areas. By analyzing these trends, the study aims to provide
insights into the factors driving land cover change and their implications for land management in the region. The ndings
reveal substantial transitions, including the conversion of 451,514 hectares of rangeland to tree cover, 152,064 hectares to
cropland, and 10,181 hectares to built areas. These results highlight the urgent need for strategies that support
sustainable land use while considering the ecological and socio-economic importance of Maasai landscapes.
Introduction
Land cover change is a signicant driver of ecological and socio-economic transformations across the globe, affecting
natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and human livelihoods(Ameneshewa et al., 2024; Chiaka et al.,
2024). In East Africa, particularly in Maasai-inhabited landscapes, this issue has become increasingly pressing due to
growing pressures from population expansion, agricultural intensication, and infrastructural development(Chebby et al.,
2023). Historically, Maasai pastoral communities have relied on vast rangelands to sustain their cattle-based
livelihoods(Hezron et al., 2024). However, the rapid conversion of these rangelands into croplands, afforestation, and built
environments is disrupting traditional land-use practices and threatening both biodiversity and the pastoralist way of life
(Homewood et al., 2009; Mwangi & Ostrom, 2009).
A growing body of research highlights the impacts of land cover changes, but there is still a gap in understanding the
specic nature and scale of these transformations within Maasai landscapes. The conversion of rangelands into
croplands and other land uses can lead to land degradation, fragmentation of wildlife habitats, and diminished ecosystem
services, such as carbon sequestration and water regulation (Reid et al., 2004). These changes, exacerbated by the
increasing variability of climate conditions, also contribute to heightened competition for natural resources, leading to
conicts between wildlife conservation needs and local community livelihoods (Galvin, 2009).
The problem becomes more acute in the face of limited data on the spatial and temporal dynamics of these land cover
changes, particularly regarding their long-term impacts on Maasai pastoral systems. Although some studies have explored
land use changes in the region (Kariuki et al., 2021), there is a clear gap in data-driven assessments that quantify the
extent of land conversion over time, specically focusing on the transformation from rangelands to croplands, tree cover,
and built environments. Such data is critical for understanding the drivers of these changes and developing sustainable
land-use strategies that can mitigate adverse effects.
This study aims to address this gap by analyzing land cover changes in Maasai landscapes between 2017 and 2023.
Specically, it focuses on quantifying the transitions from rangeland to other land cover classes, including cropland, tree
cover, and built-up areas. By providing a detailed analysis of these land cover transitions, the study seeks to offer insights
into the scale of landscape transformation and its implications for pastoral livelihoods and biodiversity conservation. The
ndings will be crucial in informing policy interventions aimed at balancing socio-economic development with the
conservation of natural ecosystems in Maasai regions.
Methods

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2.1 Study area
The study area is located in northern Tanzania, approximately between latitudes 2.0°S and 5.0°S and longitudes 34.0°E
and 38.0°E, encompassing six district councils (DC): Longido, Ngorongoro, Siha, Simanjiro, Monduli, and Arusha (Fig.1).
These DC are part of the Maasai pastoralist landscapes, known for their ecological diversity and cultural signicance. The
region is situated near key ecological zones such as the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Serengeti National Park, and
Mount Kilimanjaro. The altitude across the area varies signicantly, from around 600 meters above sea level in the semi-
arid lowlands of Longido and Simanjiro to as high as 3,000 meters in the highlands near Mount Kilimanjaro in Siha and
Arusha districts.
Rainfall in the study area ranges from 400 mm in the drier, semi-arid districts to 1,200 mm in the more fertile, highland
regions. Temperatures vary accordingly, from cooler temperatures of around 15°C in the highlands to approximately 30°C
in the lower, hotter regions. The soils in the area are predominantly volcanic near Kilimanjaro, supporting fertile agricultural
lands, while sandy and loamy soils dominate the rangelands of Longido and Simanjiro. Alkaline soils are found in the
highland areas of Ngorongoro.
The vegetation is diverse, with savannah grasslands, acacia woodlands, and montane forests in the highlands. The
rangelands, particularly in Longido and Simanjiro, are essential for supporting pastoralist livelihoods. Population density
varies, with the highest concentrations in Arusha and Siha, while Longido and Simanjiro have more sparsely populated
pastoralist communities. The main economic activities across the districts include livestock rearing (pastoralism),
agriculture (particularly maize), tourism (centered around Ngorongoro and Kilimanjaro), and mining, notably tanzanite
mining in Simanjiro. This area is a focal point for balancing traditional livelihoods, conservation, and modern development
pressures.
2.2 Land cover data
A 10-meter annual land cover data of Earth's land surface from 2017–2023 were downloaded from ESRI
[https://livingatlas.arcgis.com/landcover/]. Each time slice data is a composite of LULC predictions for 9 classes
throughout the year, aiming to create a representative snapshot of each year (Table1). Upon download, land cover data
were uploaded to ArcGIS Pro version 2.6 (ESRI, 2020) to: 1) visualize the spatial distribution of land cover classes across
each time slice within the Maasai landscapes. 2) Detect changes in land cover between 2017 and 2023 using the change
detection wizard available in ArcGIS Pro version 2.6. I projected a map for each time slice from WGS 1984 to the Africa
Albers Equal Area Conic projection using the Project tool in ArcGIS Pro version 2.6 to ensure accurate area calculations. I
generated 315 accuracy assessment points per time step using stratied random sampling in ArcGIS Pro version 2.6 to
assess the accuracy of the classied maps. I validated the land cover maps produced by ESRI (Giliba et al., 2023; Hu et al.,
2013; Yu, 2013) using high-resolution images from Google Earth. The overall land cover classication accuracy for the
2017 and 2023 years was 94–95% with kappa coecients of 93% and 94, respectively (Table S1 & S2).

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Table 1
Description of land cover classes adapted from (Karra et al., 2021)
SN Class Class denition
1 Water Water Areas where water was predominantly present throughout the year; may not cover areas
with sporadic or ephemeral water; contains little to no sparse vegetation, no rock outcrop nor
built up features like docks; examples: rivers, ponds, lakes, oceans, ooded salt plains.
2 Trees Any signicant clustering of tall (~ 15 feet or higher) dense vegetation, typically with a closed or
dense canopy; examples: wooded vegetation, clusters of dense tall vegetation within savannas,
plantations, swamp or mangroves (dense/tall vegetation with ephemeral water or canopy too
thick to detect water underneath)
4 Flooded
vegetation Areas of any type of vegetation with obvious intermixing of water throughout a majority of the
year; seasonally ooded area that is a mix of grass/shrub/trees/bare ground; examples: ooded
mangroves, emergent vegetation, rice paddies and other heavily irrigated and inundated
agriculture.
5 Crops Human planted/plotted cereals, grasses, and crops not at tree height; examples: corn, wheat, soy,
fallow plots of structured land.
7 Built Area Human made structures; major road and rail networks; large homogeneous impervious surfaces
including parking structures, oce buildings and residential housing; examples: houses, dense
villages / towns / cities, paved roads, asphalt.
8 Bare
ground Areas of rock or soil with very sparse to no vegetation for the entire year; large areas of sand and
deserts with no to little vegetation; examples: exposed rock or soil, desert and sand dunes, dry
salt ats/pans, dried lake beds, mines.
9 Snow/Ice Large homogeneous areas of permanent snow or ice, typically only in mountain areas or highest
latitudes; examples: glaciers, permanent snowpack, snow elds.
10 Clouds No land cover information due to persistent cloud cover
11 Rangeland Open areas covered in homogeneous grasses with little to no taller vegetation; wild cereals and
grasses with no obvious human plotting (i.e., not a plotted eld); examples: natural meadows and
elds with sparse to no tree cover, open savanna with few to no trees, parks/golf courses/lawns,
pastures. Mix of small clusters of plants or single plants dispersed on a landscape that shows
exposed soil or rock; scrub-lled clearings within dense forests that are clearly not taller than
trees; examples: moderate to sparse cover of bushes, shrubs and tufts of grass, savannas with
very sparse grasses, trees or other plants.
Results
3.1 Time series land cover analysis
Between 2017 and 2023, the Maasai landscapes experienced signicant changes in land cover across various classes
(Table2 and Fig.2)). The water-covered area uctuated signicantly, beginning at 46,231.27 ha in 2017, reaching a peak of
125,258.96 ha in 2020, and then declining to 77,512.33 ha by 2023. This pattern suggests dynamic changes likely driven
by seasonal rainfall and climate variability. Tree cover experienced a sharp increase from 432,343.19 ha in 2017 to
1,617,971.94 ha in 2020, followed by a decline to 834,394.90 ha by 2023. This increase may indicate successful
reforestation efforts, but the subsequent decrease points to potential deforestation or land use conversion.
Flooded vegetation also showed variability, starting at 2,610.80 ha in 2017, peaking at 11,773.92 ha in 2020, and then
dropping to 1,359.90 ha by 2023. Hydrological shifts and seasonal ooding likely contribute to these changes. Crops
steadily expanded from 210,640.27 ha in 2017 to 334,577.55 ha in 2023, indicating an increase in agricultural activities,
potentially driven by population growth and the need for food production. Built-up areas also showed a gradual rise,
growing from 28,981.71 ha in 2017 to 44,207.45 ha by 2023, indicating ongoing urbanization and infrastructure
development. Bare ground experienced signicant uctuations, starting at 288,950.44 ha in 2017, dropping to 9,734.29 ha
in 2020, and then rising again to 34,925.45 ha by 2023, likely reecting cycles of land degradation and restoration efforts.

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Rangeland, the largest land cover class, steadily decreased from 4,216,853.47 ha in 2017 to 3,900,474.56 ha in 2023,
indicating the conversion of rangelands to other uses, such as agriculture and settlements, which may have profound
implications for pastoralist communities and wildlife relying on these areas for grazing. Overall, the landscape changes in
Maasai regions are characterized by increasing agricultural expansion and urbanization, uctuating tree and bare ground
cover, and a steady reduction in rangelands, all of which highlight the impact of human activities and environmental
factors on land use patterns.
Table 2
Distribution of land cover within Maasai landscapes between 2017 and 2023
Land
cover
class
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Water 46231.27 100199.83 73344.39 125258.96 115884.40 87641.88 77512.33
Trees 432343.19 705616.13 690998.02 1617971.94 1037663.76 819808.10 834394.90
Flooded
Vegetation 2610.80 5590.43 2266.35 11773.92 2929.84 1290.87 1359.90
Crops 210640.27 249677.70 299251.22 289555.29 332202.18 321847.26 334577.55
Built Area 28981.71 32211.80 36117.90 38862.12 38590.38 41449.55 44207.45
Bare
Ground 288950.44 70317.00 83507.70 9734.29 10704.49 30711.63 34925.45
Clouds 1071.68 1674.00 282.10 3422.01 1103.02 169.12 224.79
Rangeland 4216853.47 4062395.94 4041915.15 3167617.17 3688604.76 3924764.42 3900474.56
3.2 Overall land cover change between 2017 and 2023
The land cover changes within Maasai landscapes between 2017 and 2023 reveal signicant shifts in land use patterns
(Table2). The conversion of 451,514.10 ha of rangeland to tree cover indicates reforestation efforts or natural
regeneration, potentially contributing to carbon sequestration, biodiversity, and water conservation. However, the transition
of 152,064.70 ha from rangeland to cropland suggests increasing agricultural expansion, likely driven by population
growth and food security demands. This shift could lead to reduced grazing areas for pastoral communities, potentially
impacting livestock production and livelihoods.
Additionally, 10,181.69 ha of rangeland was converted into built-up areas, indicating urbanization and infrastructure
development. This change may reduce available land for traditional grazing and affect wildlife habitats, contributing to
increased human-wildlife conicts. The conversion of 2,943.54 ha of tree cover to cropland highlights land use pressures
that may result in deforestation and loss of ecosystem services, such as water regulation and biodiversity support.
Furthermore, 335.55 ha of tree cover transitioned to built-up areas, reecting the ongoing urban sprawl at the expense of
forested land. These land cover changes imply growing pressure on natural resources due to agricultural and
infrastructural expansion. The reduction of rangeland and tree cover in favor of cropland and built-up areas poses
challenges for environmental sustainability and pastoral livelihoods, which are dependent on intact ecosystems for
grazing and natural resource use. Future land use planning in the region will need to balance development goals with
conservation efforts to ensure long-term ecological and economic resilience.
Discussion
4.1 Land cover changes

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The ndings of land cover changes within the Maasai landscapes between 2017 and 2023 highlight key environmental and
socio-economic shifts. The transition of 451,514.10 hectares from rangeland to tree cover suggests reforestation efforts
or natural regeneration. This shift is positive for biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration but may reduce
grazing areas critical for Maasai pastoralists, whose livelihoods depend on these landscapes for livestock rearing (Otsyina
& Maghembe, 1998). The conict between conservation and pastoral needs requires policies that integrate reforestation
with community needs (Homewood et al., 2009).
The conversion of 152,064.70 hectares of rangeland to cropland reects the growing demand for agricultural land due to
population pressure and economic activities. This transition improves food security and local economies but also raises
concerns over rangeland degradation and sustainability (Fratkin & Mearns, 2003). Loss of grazing land for pastoralists
could lead to overgrazing in remaining areas, further exacerbating land degradation (Said et al., 2017).
Urbanization trends are evident in the shift of 10,181.69 hectares of rangeland to built-up areas, driven by population
growth and infrastructural development (Olson et al., 2004). While urban expansion can boost local economies, it leads to
habitat fragmentation, wildlife displacement, and increased human-wildlife conicts (Homewood et al., 2009).
Urbanization also puts pressure on natural resources like water and land, leading to unsustainable consumption. The
conversion of 2,943.54 hectares of trees to cropland and 335.55 hectares to built-up areas signals deforestation trends in
the region. The loss of forest cover leads to biodiversity loss, soil erosion, and reduced ecosystem services (Lambin et al.,
2003). Although this land use change may provide short-term economic benets, it could undermine long-term ecological
sustainability and resilience to climate change (Lambin & Meyfroidt, 2011).
To sum up, these changes indicate the need for integrated land-use planning to balance economic development with
environmental sustainability. Policymakers must create strategies that promote sustainable agriculture, conserve
rangelands, and protect biodiversity while supporting community livelihoods (Said et al., 2017). Community participation in
land-use decisions and the implementation of sustainable practices are critical for mitigating the negative impacts of
these land cover transitions.
4.2 Implications
The ndings of this study have several critical implications for environmental sustainability, livelihoods, biodiversity
conservation, and land-use policy.
Environmental sustainability
is at risk as the shift from rangelands and forests to
croplands and built-up areas imposes ongoing strain on ecosystems. This transformation leads to habitat loss, reduced
biodiversity, and increased land degradation. Over time, unsustainable land-use practices may exacerbate the region’s
vulnerability to climate change, soil erosion, and desertication.
Livelihood challenges
are evident for Maasai pastoralist
communities, whose traditional practices rely on open rangelands for grazing. Agricultural expansion and urbanization are
reducing these grazing areas, forcing pastoralists to either adopt alternative livelihoods or intensify grazing in limited
spaces, resulting in overgrazing and environmental degradation. This trend threatens the traditional pastoral system and
highlights the urgent need for integrated land-use planning that balances development with pastoral needs.
Additionally,
biodiversity conservation
is severely affected by the conversion of forested land to agriculture and
infrastructure development. Habitat fragmentation and the transformation of natural ecosystems into human-dominated
landscapes contribute to declining wildlife populations and increasing human-wildlife conicts. To address these
challenges, development plans must incorporate conservation strategies that maintain ecological balance while meeting
the socio-economic demands of the growing population. The study also underscores the importance of
land-use planning
and policy
. There is a pressing need for comprehensive land management approaches that accommodate agricultural
expansion, urbanization, and biodiversity conservation. Policies should encourage sustainable agricultural practices,
protect critical habitats, and ensure urban development does not encroach on ecologically sensitive areas. Involving local
communities in decision-making processes can help mitigate the adverse effects of land-use changes. To sum up, while

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the conversion of rangelands to tree cover offers potential ecological benets, the large-scale shifts toward cropland and
urban areas pose signicant challenges to environmental sustainability, biodiversity conservation, and the livelihoods of
pastoral communities. Policymakers must focus on sustainable development strategies that balance human needs with
ecological integrity to ensure the long-term resilience of the Maasai landscapes.
Conclusion
The ndings of this study highlight signicant land cover changes within the Maasai landscapes between 2017 and 2023.
The most notable transitions include the conversion of rangeland to tree cover, cropland, and built areas. The
transformation of over 450,000 hectares of rangeland into tree cover, reecting afforestation or natural reforestation
efforts, was the largest observed change. However, the conversion of over 150,000 hectares of rangeland to cropland
signals increasing agricultural expansion, which may pose challenges to the sustainability of traditional pastoralist
livelihoods. Additionally, the conversion of rangeland to built-up areas, although smaller in scale, indicates ongoing
urbanization and infrastructural development in the region. These land cover transitions suggest a dynamic shift in land
use practices within the Maasai landscapes, driven by both environmental factors and socio-economic pressures. While
afforestation efforts may offer environmental benets, the conversion of rangeland into cropland and built areas could
lead to long-term ecological consequences, including habitat fragmentation, loss of biodiversity, and diminished
ecosystem services. The transition from trees to cropland and built areas, though less extensive, further underscores the
competing demands for land resources in the region.
Overall, the results underscore the need for integrated land use planning and sustainable management strategies that
balance ecological conservation with the socio-economic needs of local communities. Further research is required to
assess the broader impacts of these land cover changes on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and the livelihoods of
indigenous communities. Policymakers and stakeholders must work together to develop solutions that promote
sustainable land use practices while addressing the challenges posed by agricultural expansion and urban development.
Declarations
Ethical statement
This study was conducted using publicly available remote sensing and GIS datasets in compliance with ethical guidelines
for geospatial research. All satellite imagery and geospatial data were obtained from ESRI website
(https://www.esri.com/)
Funding
The author did not receive any funding to carry out this study.
Author Contribution
Conceptualization: RG; Data curation: RG; Formal analysis: RG; Methodology RG; Visualization: RG ; Writing original draft:
RG; Review & editing: RG
Acknowledgement
I thank ESRI for allowing access to publicly available remote sensing and GIS datasets.

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Data Availability
The ESRI land cover land use data used in this study is publicly available and can be accessed through the ESRI website
(https://www.esri.com/). Additional information about the dataset and its usage guidelines can be obtained from ESRI's
data repository. Any specic data processing or analysis steps applied to the ESRI land cover land use data in this study
are detailed in the methods section.
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Figures
Figure 1
Location map of the study area in northern Tanzania, showing the six districts (Longido DC, Ngorongoro DC, Siha DC,
Simanjiro DC, Monduli DC, and Arusha DC) within the Maasai landscapes. The red inset indicates the broader location of
the study area within Tanzania.

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Figure 2
Land cover changes in Maasai landscapes from 2017 (a) to 2023 (g), illustrating shifts in land cover classes such as
water, trees, closed vegetation, open vegetation, crops, built areas, rangeland, and bare ground. Land cover changes
between 2017 and 2023 (h) in Maasai landscapes, illustrating the conversion of rangeland to crops, trees, built areas, and
vice versa across the districts.
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