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Loss analyses associated with the secondary effect in earthquake: A case study of Kahramanmaras earthquake sequences
Abstract
On February 6, 2023, two major earthquakes occurred in southern Turkey with an interval of 9 hours. The two earthquakes that occurred are two major earthquakes that are individually important. If it had occurred in different regions over a longer period, it would have entered the literature as two separate earthquakes. These two major earthquakes, centered in Pazarcik (7.7 Mw) and Elbistan (7.6 Mw), affected a total of 11 cities in the south and east of the country, and approximately 14 million people living in these cities were directly damaged by the earthquake. According to the official data, the loss of life due to the earthquake is around 50000. After the earthquake that caused such great losses, the region became the focus of researchers. However, studies focus on structural damage, considering the earthquake's first effect. Although not directly caused by the first movement after the earthquake, secondary effects resulting from the earthquake or the physical characteristics of the region cause significant damage, although not as much as the primary effects. Secondary effects such as liquefaction, fire, landslide, change in water level, change in water quality, surface fractures, and tsunami should be examined and prevented from occurring in these situations as well as buildings affected by earthquakes. Within the scope of this study, the type and distribution of secondary effects in the cities affected by the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes were examined. Secondary effects were intense in the cities of Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Adiyaman and Malatya. In addition to the distribution of secondary effects, its relationship with the rate of structural damage and the economic costs it causes were examined. Considering the results, the incidence of secondary effects also increases in cities with a high rate of structural damage. In addition, the effect of secondary effects on direct economic costs is around 30%. The economic cost of the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes due to secondary effects has been calculated as approximately 17 billion dollars. In addition to the primary effects of earthquakes, their secondary effects should also be considered. This will give sensitivity to the predictions made in terms of minimizing earthquake-related damage.
... Another main shock of M w = 6.4 struck on 20 February 2023. As a result of these disasters, more than 50,000 people lost their lives across 11 cities, over 100,000 people were injured, and more than 550,000 homes were rendered uninhabitable [54][55][56]. When considering the fault systems where these earthquakes occurred, the fact that nearly all of them struck various fault segments raises the possibility of further main shocks. ...
Devastating earthquakes around the world highlight the crucial need to understand the seismic performance of structures. Local soil conditions are among the most significant factors influencing a structure’s seismic behavior. Earthquake–soil–structure interactions directly affect seismic damage levels. In performance-based earthquake engineering, accurate target displacements enable a more realistic estimation of the expected performance levels for structures. This depends on obtaining realistic local soil conditions. This study conducted structural analyses on seven different variables, considering four different local soil conditions specified in Eurocode 8. The variables selected were importance class, peak ground acceleration (PGA), damping ratio, ground storey height, frame openings, number of storeys, and storey height, applied to a symmetrical and regular reinforced concrete structure. Period, base shear, stiffness, and target displacements were obtained for each variable through pushover analyses for the four various local soil conditions. All structural results were compared with one another and with other variables. This paper also aimed to reveal the effect of local soil conditions in the context of the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) earthquakes. The study confirms that variations in soil types, as classified in Eurocode 8, have a major impact on the seismic behavior of reinforced-concrete structures. Weaker soils amplify seismic effects, increasing target displacements and structural vulnerability.
The 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence produced extensive liquefaction-induced ground deformations and ongoing flooding along the shoreline of the Mediterranean port city of İskenderun, Türkiye. This study compiles field observations and analyses from cross-disciplinary perspectives to investigate whether earthquake-induced liquefaction was a significant factor for increasing the flood hazard in İskenderun. Geotechnical reconnaissance observations following the earthquakes included seaward lateral spreading, settlement beneath buildings, and failures of coastal infrastructure. Three presented lateral spreading case histories indicate consistent ground deformation patterns with areas of reclaimed land. Persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) measurements from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery identify a noticeably greater rate of pre- and post-earthquake subsidence within the İskenderun coastal and urban areas relative to the surrounding regions. The PSI measurements also indicate subsidence rates accelerated following the earthquakes and were typically highest near the observed liquefaction manifestations. These evaluations suggest that while the liquefaction of coastal reclaimed fill caused significant ground deformations in the shoreline area, ongoing subsidence of İskenderun and other factors likely also exacerbated the flood hazard. Insights from this work suggest the importance of evaluating multi-hazard liquefaction and flood consequences for enhancing the resilience of coastal cities.
Seismically induced soil liquefaction was listed as one of the major causes of damage observed in the natural and built environment during the 2023 Türkiye-Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence. Reconnaissance field investigations were performed to collect perishable data and document the extent of damage immediately after the events. The sites with surface manifestations of seismic soil liquefaction in the form of soil ejecta, excessive foundation and ground deformations were identified and documented. The deformations were mapped, and samples from ejecta were retrieved. The ejecta samples were predominantly classified as sands with varying degrees of fines. Laboratory test results performed on liquefied soil ejecta revealed that the fines-containing liquefied ejecta samples are mostly classified as low plasticity clays (CL). Most of CL soil type ejecta were retrieved from Gölbaşı–Adıyaman region. The liquid limits of these samples varied in between 32 and 38%, their plasticity index values were estimated in the range of 16–23%. Surprisingly, two ejecta samples with plasticity indices higher than 30% were retrieved from Hatay airport, one of which was classified as high plasticity clay (CH). The majority of the fine-grained ejecta samples fall either on “Zone B: Testing Recommended” region of the Seed et al. (Keynote presentation, 26th Annual ASCE Los Angeles Geotechnical Spring Seminar, Long Beach, CA, 2003) susceptibility chart. Moreover, 12 out of 74 samples fall outside the susceptible limits defined by Seed et. These preliminary results suggest that clayey soils can produce liquefied ejecta when subjected to cyclic loading. Detailed site investigation and laboratory testing programs are ongoing to further investigate this rather unexpected response. Until their findings become available, the liquefaction susceptibility of silty-clayey soils’ mixtures is recommended to be assessed conservatively with caution.
The quality of landslide susceptibility maps is often assessed using a part of learning data that represents geographical and land use characteristics over a quasi-fixed time. However, when validated with multi-temporal landslide inventories, more realistic insights on the susceptibility maps can be obtained. In addition, extreme events may trigger landslides in regions which are not considered as landslide-prone. The February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaras Earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6), also known as the disaster of the century, triggered numerous landslides. Amanos Mountains located in southern Türkiye were also within the earthquake-affected area and had a very small amount of inventory recorded in official databases. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the random forest method for producing landslide susceptibility maps. The official inventory of General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA) was used for map production. The resulting susceptibility map was assessed using the co-seismic landslide inventory produced in the study. The model's performance evaluated using a part of the learning data yielded high accuracy expressed with area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), precision, and recall values and F1 score using (AUC = 97%, recall = 97%, precision = 96%, F1 = 98%). However, multi-temporal evaluation with co-seismic landslides showed that 80% of the landslide pixels with moderate, high, and very high susceptibility levels could be predicted with the model. The results suggest that special attention should be given to features underrepresented in the inventory, such as low altitudes and types of lithology.
Ülkemizde yaşanan 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremleri son yılların en yıkıcı doğal afetlerinden birisidir. Meydana gelen bu depremler çok sayıda can kaybına, yaralanmalara ve ağır hasarlara sebep olmuştur. Felakete yol açan 6 Şubat depremleri çözülmesi gereken büyük bir krizi de beraberinde getirmiştir. Meydana gelen depremlerde krize sebep olan unsurlar nelerdir ve krizi yönetmek için neler yapıldı gibi sorular çerçevesinde bu çalışma oluşturulmuştur. Bu çalışma ile 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremlerini kriz yönetimi bağlamında incelemek amaçlanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda Kahramanmaraş depremleri hakkında bilgi verilerek yaşanan bu depremlerde krize sebep olan unsurlar ve 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremleri kriz yönetimi açısından ele alınmıştır.
Türkiye’de, aktif fay zonlarını sınırları içerisinde bulundurması sebebiyle geçmişten günümüze kadar,
birçok deprem meydana gelmiştir. Bu depremler önemli can ve mal kayıplarına neden olmuştur. Bu kayıplar maddi ve manevi olarak ülkede yaşayan insanları derinden etkilemiştir. Bunlara son olarak 06 Şubat 2023 tarihinde yaklaşık 9 saat arayla meydana gelen Kahramanmaraş merkezli iki büyük deprem eklenmiştir. Doğu Anadolu Fay Zonunun Ölü Deniz Fay Zonu ile birleştiği bölümde 04.17’de meydana gelen deprem sonrasında, yerel saatle 13.24’te Doğu Anadolu Fay Zonunun başka bir kolu olan Çardak Fayında diğer deprem meydana gelmiştir. Çok büyük bir alanda hissedilen depremlerden 11 il etkilenmiş, 14 milyonun üzerinde insan depremden zarar görmüştür. Meydana gelen zararlar yapısal hasar kaynaklı can kayıpları ve ekonomik kayıplardır. Depremden etkilenen bölgede birçok yapı tamamen göçmüş, bir bölümü ise ağır hasarlı bir şekilde kullanılamaz hale gelmiştir. Bu çalışma ise deprem kaynaklı kayıpları önceden tahmin edebilen kayıp değerlendirilmesi metodolojisi kullanarak gerçekte meydana gelmiş kayıpların değerlendirilmesi amaçlamıştır. 11 ildeki gerçek kayıplar ile tahmin
edilen kayıplar karşılaştırılmıştır. Can kaybı tahminlerinde kullanılan modifiye edilmiş can kaybı katsayıları ile gerçek sonuçlar benzer değerler almıştır. Yıkımın büyük olduğu şehirlerde ağır hasarlı ve
yıkık bina sayıları tam olarak örtüşmese dahi, genel olarak kayıp tahmin aşamaları uygulandığında benzer sonuçlar verdiği görülmüştür. Çalışma sonuçları incelenmiş, sonuçlar gerekçeleri ile
irdelenmiştir.
This paper presents the first example of how to systematically identify the submarine landslide source of a tsunami using an innovative hybrid approach. This ground-breaking method is developed to resolve the puzzle around the source mechanism of the mysterious tsunami observed on 6th February 2023 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The tsunami followed the two inland M w 7.8 and M w 7.5 Türkiye–Syria earthquakes, which occurred consequently with a 9 h interval on this day. The first earthquake (M w 7.8) had an epicentral distance of 90 km from the nearest coast, which is closer than the second one (M w 7.5) to the coast and yet its crustal deformation was almost entirely limited to inland. Therefore, the co-seismic surface displacement generated by the earthquake was ruled out as the source of the tsunami, confirmed by numerical modelling. Here, we hypothesized that the tsunami was most likely generated by a submarine landslide triggered by the earthquake. Analysis of tide gauge observations revealed that the waves arrived from 27 min to 48 min after the first earthquake (M w 7.8) at different coastal locations, implying that the potential submarine landslide was triggered by the first earthquake (M w 7.8). Backward tsunami travel time mapping using tide gauge observations guided us to constrain the area of the potential landslide. We approximated the dimensions of the landslide using spectral analysis of the tsunami observations. Consequently, an iterative trial-and-error approach was employed to confirm the landslide source of the tsunami by defining various informed alternative landslide scenarios and applying numerical modeling. Modelling showed that a submarine landslide can reproduce the tsunami observations reasonably well. It is located on a steep slope of the seafloor approximately 50 km from Arsuz. The submarine landslide is estimated to have caused a seafloor deformation measuring approximately 16 km in length and 4.0 km in width.
Earthquakes are among the most impressive natural phenomena with very high potential to set off a chain of effects that significantly affects public health through casualties and injuries. Related disasters are attributed not only to the strong ground motion and coseismic phenomena but also to secondary effects, comprising mainly landslides and tsunamis, among others. All these can create harsh conditions favorable for the emergence of infectious diseases that are capable of causing additional human and economic losses and disruption of the emergency and recovery process. The present study comprises an extensive narrative review of the existing literature on the earthquake-triggered infectious diseases recorded worldwide, along with their symptoms, causative pathogens, associated risk factors, most vulnerable population groups, and prevention strategies. Respiratory, gastrointestinal, and vector-borne diseases, as well as wound and skin infections, are mainly recorded among the earthquake-affected population. Measures for effectively preventing earthquake-triggered infectious diseases are also proposed. One of the widely proposed measures is the establishment of a proper disease surveillance system in order to immediately and effectively identify the pre- and post-disaster occurrence of infectious diseases. This approach significantly contributes to disease trends monitoring, validation of early warning, and support of the emergency response and recovery actions.
Background: Natural disaster has far-reaching consequences on the economic development of low-income economies due to the damage to physical and human capital and their poor resilience toward such damages. Nepal faces such disasters at frequent intervals without much effort to account for its consequences, particularly on human capital. Objective: This study assesses the short-term impact of Nepal's 2015 earthquake on children's educational attainment. The study also conducts heterogeneous analysis to analyze how the impact varies by gender. Secondary school completion is chosen as a measure of educational attainment. Method: The study utilizes second and third rounds of household survey data taken from the Nepal Risk and Vulnerability Survey (NHRVS) conducted by the World Bank. The study uses child fixed effects combined with the difference-in-difference method to account for issues relating to identifying the earthquake's impact on educational attainment. Results: The study finds that the cohorts exposed to the earthquake had an adverse effect on the probability of secondary school completion. A heterogeneous analysis by gender further reveals that the male children experienced a significant drop in their secondary school completion probability while female children essentially had no impact. Implication: The quality of human resources depends upon the quality of health and education in any country. The findings of this research draw the attention of the policymakers to the serious consequences that natural disaster has on human capital and help make informed policy decisions not only during the recovery process but also during the planning and policy formulation stage. Originality: This paper is original and has not been published anywhere else.
Barrier islands are indicators of coastal resilience. Previous studies have proven that barrier islands are surprisingly resilient to extreme storm events. At present, little is known about barrier systems’ resilience to seismic events triggering tsunamis, co-seismic subsidence, and liquefaction. The objective of this study is, therefore, to investigate the morphological resilience of the barrier islands in responding to those secondary effects of seismic activity of the Sumatra–Andaman subduction zone and the Great Sumatran Fault system. Spatial analysis in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) was utilized to detect shoreline changes from the multi-source datasets of centennial time scale, including old topographic maps and satellite images from 1898 until 2017. Additionally, the earthquake and tsunami records and established conceptual models of storm effects to barrier systems, are corroborated to support possible forcing factors analysis. Two selected coastal sections possess different geomorphic settings are investigated: (1) Lambadeuk, the coast overlying the Sumatran Fault system, (2) Kuala Gigieng, located in between two segments of the Sumatran Fault System. Seven consecutive pairs of comparable old topographic maps and satellite images reveal remarkable morphological changes in the form of breaching, landward migrating, sinking, and complete disappearing in different periods of observation. While semi-protected embayed Lambadeuk is not resilient to repeated co-seismic land subsidence, the wave-dominated Kuala Gigieng coast is not resilient to the combination of tsunami and liquefaction events. The mega-tsunami triggered by the 2004 earthquake led to irreversible changes in the barrier islands on both coasts.
Numerous investigations assess the technical, technological, and managerial aspects of disaster response related to large technical systems. This paper deals with the possibility of synthesizing these aspects in a disaster response methodology, thus combining the technical, technological methods, tools, and software with the art of management. Its objective is to develop a preliminary methodology that supports the response management decision making processes related to earthquake-damaged large technical systems. The introduced methodology is demonstrated with the example of railway systems. It utilizes a combination of (i) a probabilistic model of railway system damage caused by earthquakes, (ii) a Markov model related to the damage and recovery phases, (iii) a probabilistic model of aftershocks, (iv) a statistical model of secondary effects, (v) impact models of management support actions, and (vi) response process management supported by a Markov Decision Process. The simulation results validate the concept. Based on these research results, the authors recommend that the described preliminary response management approach be further specified and implemented in disaster management procedures.
Earthquakes, large or even moderate, are often followed by secondary phenomena, such as landslides, tsunamis, fires and technological disasters, leading to cascading effects that may, in turn, cause severe repercussions. Before, during and after the occurrence of these events, risk communication, currently evolved to codified legislation, is a crucial factor. Policy selection in the present study is approached by the application of the risk game tree and its formation. The events studied here in view of policy making have occurred both in the historical and the instrumental era, to account for different level of exposure and anthropogenic hazards, in Greece (1894 Atlanti, 1953 Kefallinia series, 2003 and 2015 Lefkas), Italy (1976 Friuli), Japan (2011 Tōhoku) and Slovenia (1917 Brežice). In all case studies the whole disaster management cycle is examined, i.e. mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Disaggregation of earthquake-related direct and cascading effects, as well as risk communication are taken into account and ethical challenges are posed both to scientists and policy makers.
The earthquake environmental effects (EEEs) around the epicentral area of the Pohang earthquake (Mw-5.4) that occurred on 15 November 2017 have been collected and classified using the Environmental Seismic Intensity Scale (ESI-07 scale) proposed by the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) focus group. The shallow-focus 15 November Pohang earthquake did not produce any surface rupture, but caused extensive secondary environmental effects and damage to life-line structures. This earthquake was one of the most damaging earthquakes during the instrumental seismic era of the Korean Peninsula. The EEEs included extensive liquefaction, ground cracks, ground settlement, localized rockfall, and variation of the water table. The main objective of this paper was to carry forward a comparative assessment of the Pohang earthquake’s intensity based on traditional macroseismic scales and the ESI-07 scale. With that objective, this study will also make a substantial contribution to any future revision of the ESI-07 scale, which mostly comprises case studies from Europe and South America. The comparison of the ESI-07 scale with traditional intensity scales similar to the intensity scale used by the Korean Meteorological Administration for the epicentral areas showed 1–2-degree differences in intensity. Moreover, the ESI scale provided a clearer picture of the intensity around the epicentral area, which is mostly agricultural land with a lack of urban units or buildings. This study urges the integration of the traditional and ESI-07 scale for such small magnitude earthquakes in the Korean Peninsula as well as around the world in future. This will predict seismic intensity more precisely and hence provide a more-effective seismic hazard estimation, particularly in areas of low seismic activity. The present study will also provide a useful and reliable tool for the seismic hazard assessment of similar earthquakes around the study area and land-use planning at a local scale considering the secondary effects.
The 2016 central Apennines earthquake sequence was caused by slip on an extensional fault system and resulted in sizable coseismic surface deformation. The most evident effects occurred along the western slope of Mount Vettore, a geologically and morphologically complex mountain ridge. Steep topography and rheological contrasts are known to have strongly controlled the coseismic deformation pattern during a number of different earthquakes that occurred in mountainous areas worldwide. Nevertheless, so far the role of seismically induced slope failures has not been taken into account in the interpretation of the surface fractures caused by the 2016 earthquake sequence. We modeled the static and dynamic slope stability along the western flank of Mount Vettore and in the underlying Piano Grande plain. Combining the slope stability analysis with geomorphic and geological analyses, we show that the coseismic fractures are distributed along the most unstable areas of the western flank of Mount Vettore and can be partly explained by shaking‐induced mechanisms such as gravity‐driven displacement, compaction, and secondary ground failure. Conversely, in the Piano Grande plain the fracture pattern is not affected by topography or rheology contrasts, suggesting that it is positively caused by tectonic faulting. Different processes, such as gravitational and erosional‐depositional phenomena, may contribute to the exposure of fault scarps during both the coseismic and interseismic periods. Attributing the surface deformation entirely to tectonic faulting, especially in complex mountainous terrains such as the Apennines, may lead to an incorrect assessment of fault displacement and fault slip rate and hence of seismic hazard.
Bugünkü teknolojik imkanlar kullanılarak depremleri engellemek ve önceden haber verebilmek mümkün görünmemektedir. Ancak bazı tedbirler alınarak deprem zararları asgari düzeye indirgenebilir. Alınacak bu tedbirleri belirlemede kayıp tahmin modelleri önemli bir yer tutmaktadır. Kayıp tahmin modelleri kullanılırken deprem senaryolarından faydalanılmaktadır. Deprem senaryolarındaki amaç herhangi bir bölge için tahmin edilen bir depremin o bölgede oluşturacağı hasarın sayısal olarak tahmin edilmesine dayanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada sismik olarak aktif bir bölgede yer alan Kırşehir ili için üç farklı deprem senaryosu kullanılarak kayıp tahmin analizleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada ayrıca Kırşehir ilinin depremselliği hakkında bilgiler verilmiştir. Her üç deprem senaryosu içinde ayrı ayrı bina hasarları can ve mal kayıpları ile yapısal hasar kaynaklı mali kayıplar elde edilmiştir. Bina hasarları yazılım programında yer alan iki farklı yöntem kullanılarak hesaplanmıştır. En büyük yapısal hasarlar Akpınar Depreminin dikkate alındığı Senaryo 2 depreminde gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışma modern afet yönetimi ve kentsel dönüşüm açısından önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu tür çalışmalar afet öncesi hazırlık noktasında karar vericilerin destek aracı olarak kullanılabilecektir.
On Tuesday, November 17, 2015 at 07:10:07 (UTC) a strong earthquake struck Lefkas Island (Ionian Sea, Western Greece) with magnitude Mw 6.4, depth of about 7 km and epicenter located 20 km southwest of Lefkas town. The seismic activity in the region was essentially expected after the 2003 Lefkas earthquake and the 2014 Cephalonia earthquakes. Between these earthquake affected areas, the tectonic stresses were not released after the 1948 Lefkas earthquakes. Instead, they were intensifying and accumulating until the generation of the 2015 event. It was felt in Lefkas and the surrounding region and caused the death of 2 people, the injury of 8 others, earthquake environmental effects (EEE) and damage to buildings and infrastructure. Secondary EEE were observed in western Lefkas and included ground cracks, slope movements and liquefaction. Primary effects were not detected in the field. Buildings damage were mainly observed in villages of Dragano-Athani graben in southwestern Lefkas. Among structures constructed with no seismic provisions, the stone masonry buildings and monumental structures suffered most damage, while the traditional buildings with dual structural system performed relatively well. Reinforced-concrete buildings were affected not so much by the earthquake itself but by the generation of secondary effects.
The number of earthquakes with high damage and high losses has been limited to around 100 events since 1900. Looking at historical losses from 1900 onward, we see that around 100 key earthquakes (or around 1% of damaging earthquakes) have caused around 93% of fatalities globally. What is indeed interesting about this statistic is that within these events, secondary effects have played a major role, causing around 40% of economic losses and fatalities as compared to shaking effects. Disaggregation of secondary effect economic losses and fatalities demonstrating the relative influence of historical losses from direct earthquake shaking in comparison to tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction, fault rupture, and other type losses is important if we are to understand the key causes post-earthquake. The trends and major event impacts of secondary effects are explored in terms of their historic impact as well as looking to improved ways to disaggregate them through two case studies of the Tohoku 2011 event for earthquake, tsunami, liquefaction, fire, and the nuclear impact; as well as the Chilean 1960 earthquake and tsunami event.
6 Şubat 2023 depremleri geniş bir coğrafyada hissedilmesi ve yaratmış olduğu yıkım ile son yüzyılın en yıkıcı depremleri arasında yerini almıştır. 6 Şubat depremlerinde oluşan karmaşık kaynak özellikleri, deprem kayıtlarının karakterizasyonu, afet bölgesi ilan edilen 11 şehir için yürütülen hasar tespiti çalışmaları mühendisler için çok önemli veriler barındırmaktadır. Hazırlanan bu çalışmanın amacı depremin ikinci gününden itibaren periyodik bir şekilde afet bölgesi ilan edilen 11 ilde saha gözlemleri özelinde 6 Şubat depremlerinin sismo-tektonik, güçlü yer hareketi kayıtlarının özellikleri, binalarda ortaya çıkan hasar dağılımı ve karakteristik özellikleri hakkında bulguları paylaşmaktır. Depremden etkilenen bölgede ağır hasarın yoğunlaştığı illerde elde edilen verilere yönelik tespitler bu çalışma kapsamında kısaca açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Derlenen veriler yetkili kurumlar tarafından paylaşılan raporlar, duyurular ve yürürlükte olan deprem yönetmeliği dikkate alınarak bölgede hakim olan bina tipi mevcut yapı envanterinden faydalanarak elde edilmiştir. Kırsal kesimde ve şehir merkezlerinde hasar dağılımı incelendiğinde tescilli kültür varlığı statüsündeki yığma binalar dışında hakim yapısal sistemin şehir merkezlerinde mühendislik hizmeti almış, orta yükseklikte betonarme binalar olduğu, kırsal kesimde ise mühendislik hizmeti almamış, az katlı betonarme, karma veya yığma tipi binalar olduğu belirlenmiştir. Hasar tespitinde geçmiş deneyimlerle kıyaslandığında akademisyenler tarafından verilen eğitimlere katılmış olan saha ekiplerinin göreceli olarak daha hızlı ve titiz bir çalışma ortaya koydukları görülmüştür. Geleneksel binalara ek olarak hastane binalarına yönelik çalışmalarda deprem yalıtımı uygulanmış binalar ve geleneksel binaların kıyaslanması bir sistematik içerisinde gerçekleştirilmiştir.
Significant and widespread liquefaction occurred in İskenderun during the 2023 moment magnitude (M w ) 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake. Liquefaction effects on buildings were observed in several areas of İskenderun, predominantly in areas of reclaimed land and near historic shorelines. Liquefaction-induced building settlements were particularly concentrated in the Çay District, which is almost entirely reclaimed land. Liquefaction-induced ground and building settlements were either marginal or not apparent in areas away from the historical shorelines. Building settlement and ground deformation were documented at 26 buildings in İskenderun through lidar scans and laser-level hand measurements. Liquefaction-induced building settlements ranged from 0 to 740 mm. Building-ground interactions were evident from hogging ground deformations, including cases where buildings deformed nearby ground and damaged nearby buildings, and sagging buildings. Historic land development affected the spatial extent of observed liquefaction-induced building damage. Representative liquefaction-induced building settlement and building interaction case histories are discussed and key insights are shared.
Bir deprem ülkesi olan Türkiye’de 6 Şubat 2023 tarihinde Doğu Anadolu Fay Hattı’nda 9 saat arayla meydana gelen iki büyük deprem sonrasında 50,000’i aşkın insanımız hayatını kaybetmiş ve insanlar birçok sosyo-ekonomik problemler ile karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Kahramanmaraş’a bağlı Pazarcık ve Elbistan’da Mw 7.7 ve Mw 7.6 büyüklüklerde meydana gelen iki büyük deprem ülkemiz yüzölçümünün yaklaşık %14’üne, nüfusunun ise yaklaşık %16,4’üne tekabül edecek şekilde 11 ilimizi doğrudan etkilemiştir. 2022 yılı verilerine göre, depremden etkilenen bu illerde konut sayısı yaklaşık 5,6 milyon civarında olup, yarım milyondan fazla binanın ise hasar gördüğü belirlenmiştir. Meydana gelen bu depremler bu denli yüksek bir etki alanına sahip olması nedeniyle asrın felaketi olarak nitelendirilmiştir. Bu çalışmada, depremlerin en çok etkilediği illerden birisi olan Malatya’da gerçekleştirilen saha araştırmasından elde edilen bulguların sunulması amaçlanmıştır. Yapılan incelemeler sonucunda; yıkılan, hasar alan veya hasar alması olası görülen yapılarda gözlenen en temel sorunlar; zemin taşıma gücü düşük olan bölgelerde gerçekleştirilen inşa faaliyetleri, işçilik hataları, hatalı yapı tasarımları, bina yaşı, bitişik nizam imar planı (özellikle kat seviyelerinin farklı olması) ve oldukça düşük beton kalitesi olarak sıralanabilir.
Gölbaşı Havzası, Pazarcık ve Erkenek Segmentlerinin birleştiği alanda yer alan tektonik kökenli bir havzadır. Çalışmanın amacı, Kahramanmaraş depremlerinin Gölbaşı Havzası’nda meydana getirdiği yüzey deformasyonlarını ve bunların fiziki ve beşerî yapılar üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektir. Arazi çalışmaları kapsamında çalışma sahasındaki fayın 14 km’si takip edilerek haritalandırılmıştır. Ayrıca deprem etkilerinin yerleşmelere göre dağılışı incelenmiştir. Verilerin görselleştirilmesinde ArcGIS 10.3.1 yazılımından faydalanılmıştır. Çalışma sahasında ötelenmeler, heyelanlar, küçük ölçekli çek-ayır havzalar ve tektonik çöküntü gölcükleri (sag ponds) gözlenmiştir. Balkar’da ölçülen küçük çek-ayır havzanın genişliği 15 m, uzunluğu ise 110 m’dir. Yüzey kırığı üzerinde gözlemlenen en büyük yanal ötelenme 430±5 cm’dir. Sahada 100-200 cm arasında değişen düşey atımlar ölçülmüştür. Ayrıca depremin tetiklemesiyle yanal yayılma, kaya düşmeleri ve heyelan çatlakları oluşmuştur. Depremler nedeniyle kaynak suları kurumuş, yeni kaynaklar oluşmuş ve havza tabanında çamur volkanları meydana gelmiştir. Birikinti yelpazesi üzerinde kurulan Gölbaşı ilçe merkezinde sıvılaşma nedeniyle bazı binalarda 2 m’ye varan oturmalar ve tiltlenmeler gözlenmiştir. Yeni yerleşmelerin planlanmasında diri fay hatlarından sakınılması ve sağlam ana kayaların seçilmesi, binaların zemin koşullarına uygun inşa edilmesi önerilmektedir.
Ülkemiz 6 Şubat 2023 tarihinde, saat 04:17’de merkez üssü Kahramanmaraş’ın Pazarcık ilçesi olan Mw=7.7 büyüklüğünde bir depremle sarsılmıştır. Yaklaşık dokuz saat sonra, saat 13:24’te, bu sefer merkez üssü Kahramanmaraş’ın Elbistan ilçesi olan Mw=7.6 büyüklüğünde ikinci bir deprem oluşmuştur. Depremlerin çevresinde bulunan 11 şehir afet bölgesi kapsamına alınmıştır. Çevre, Şehircilik ve İklim Değişikliği Bakanlığı’nın verilerine göre bölgede 582000 bağımsız bölüm ve 202000 binanın acil yıkılacak, ağır hasarlı veya yıkık olduğu saptanmıştır. Bu makalede, deprem bölgesine yapılan, depremin olduğu gün başlayan ve 5 gün süren incelemeler neticesinde, betonarme binalarda yıkılmaya neden olan sorunlar hiyerarşik bir üçgen şeklinde, önem sırasına göre anlatılmıştır. Yetersiz kenetlenme boyu, etriye uçlarının 135° derece bükülmemesi, malzeme ile ilgili sorunlar, kolon ve kiriş uç bölgelerinde sarılma bölgelerinin bulunmaması, güçlü kiriş-zayıf kolon, vb. sorunların yıkımların önemli bir kısmını oluşturduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Yıkılan yapıların, yapıldıkları dönemde yürürlükte olan deprem yönetmeliklerinin şartlarını yerine getirmediği görülmüştür.
Bu çalışmada 6 Şubat 2023 tarihinde meydana gelen Pazarcık (Mw: 7.7) ve Elbistan (Mw:7.6) depremleri sonrasında betonarme prefabrik endüstri yapılarında meydana gelen hasarlar incelenmiştir. TBDY-2018’de prefabrik yapılar için moment aktaran ve moment aktarmayan farklı bağlantı tipleri bulunmasına rağmen, uygulamada genellikle moment aktarmayan pimli bağlantılar tercih edilmektedir. Pimli bağlantılar hızlı ve pratik uygulama sağlamasına rağmen deprem sırasında gevrek hasarlar almaktadır. Ayrıca bu birleşimlerde makas kirişlerinin düzlem dışı devrilme riski de bulunmaktadır. Deprem hasarları incelendiğinde betonarme prefabrik yapılarda sünek davranış sağlayacak birleşim yöntemlerinin tercih edilmesi gerektiği görülmektedir.
The Mw=7.7 (Pazarcık-Kahramanmaraş) and Mw=7.6 (Elbistan-Kahramanmaraş) earthquakes that occurred in
Türkiye on 06.02.2023 with 9 hours’ intervals, caused great losses of life and property as the biggest catastrophe in the
instrumental period. The earthquakes affecting an area of 14% of the country were enormous and caused a great deal of loss of
life and damage. Numerous buildings have collapsed or damaged at different levels, both in the city centers and in rural areas.
Within the scope of this study, masonry structure damage built from different types of materials in the earthquake region was
taken into consideration. In this study, the damage and causes of such masonry structures that do not generally receive
engineering services were examined and explained in detail. Insufficient interlocking between wall-wall and wall-roof,
inadequate masonry, lack of horizontal and vertical bond beams, usage of low-strength materials, poor workmanship, and heavy
earthen roof are commonly caused to structural damages. Separation at the corner point and out-of-plane mechanism in
structural walls, and heavy earthen roof damages are common types of damage in masonry structures.
Investigations for the estimation of the influence of possible earthquakes on the existing building stock are of great importance for the precautions to be taken and the strategies to be developed in order to reveal the earthquake risk and reduce the damages that may occur. In particular, Bingöl province, located at the intersection of two main faults, such as the North Anatolian Fault Zone and the East Anatolian Fault Zone, is a region with a high earthquake potential. In this paper, nonlinear time history analyzes were applied to the existing reinforced concrete residental building stock of Bingöl province, where the earthquake potential is high, and fragility curves were obtained. Seismic assessment was carried out with street screening methods, which provide advantages in terms of both time and economy, and 1261 buildings were classified. After the classification, the remaining 32 residential reinforced concrete buildings were modeled in 3D and nonlinear analyzes were performed with real earthquake records. Generally, fragility curves are generated for similar building types in a particular region in vulnerability studies. In this study, taking into account plastic hinges of structural elements in the local fragility curves developed for Bingöl province differs in terms of obtaining fragility curves. Despite the renewal of the construction in Bingöl after the past major earthquakes, the irregularities in the buildings revealed the necessity of carrying out similar seismic vulnerability assessment studies. In addition, the obtained 5 different fragility curves allowed the Bingöl province to be evaluated in terms of seismicity for possible earthquakes to occur in the future.
Son yaşadığımız 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş Pazarcık ve Elbistan Merkezli depremler toplamda 11 ili etkilemiştir. Şiddetli hissedilen depremlerin, yoğun fiziksel yıkımla birlikte duygusal yönden de önemli sorunlara yol açtığı tahmin edilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, deprem sonrası yetişkin bireylerin depresyon düzeylerini cinsiyet, eğitim düzeyi ve yaş aralıklarına göre incelemektir. Bu araştırmaya Türkiye’de yaşayan toplam 458 yetişkin birey katılmıştır. Çalışma grubunu oluşturan yetişkin bireylerin 326’sı kadın (%71.2), 132’si (%28.8) erkektir. Google-formlar üzerinden hazırlanan anket formu çalışma grubuna kartopu örnekleme yöntemiyle ulaştırılmıştır. Araştırma verilerinin normallik varsayımı için çarpıklık ve basıklık değerleri incelenmiştir. Ardından bulgular bağımsız örneklemler için t testi ve varyans analizi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar, yetişkin bireylerin depresyon düzeyleri cinsiyete göre farklılık göstermiştir. Kadınların deprem sonrası depresyon düzeyleri erkeklere göre daha yüksek bulunmuştur. Bir diğer bulgu sonucunda ise 18-35 yaş arası yetişkin bireylerin depresyon puan ortalaması 36 yaş ve üzeri bireylerden daha yüksek olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Ayrıca üniversite mezunu bireylerin depresyon puanlarının ilkokul ve lise mezunu bireylerden anlamlı olarak daha yüksek olduğu saptanmıştır. Bu çalışmadaki bulguların, doğal afetlerin uzun vadeli ruh sağlığı sonuçlarına ilişkin mevcut bilgilere katkıda bulunması beklenmektedir.
The 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes occurred on active faults that were known to be a high seismic hazard, yet the devastating impacts of these earthquakes show that the risk was not adequately considered. Vulnerabilities arising from exposure, corruption and poverty led to a lack of seismic preparedness which amplified the earthquake risk into a tragic disaster.
The improved modified ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method is used to decompose the long-period ground motion, and the introduction of permutation entropy is used to eliminate the abnormal signal, which can avoid the phenomenon of mode aliasing in the traditional empirical mode decomposition method, so that the components of the long-period ground motion can be accurately separated. Taking the separated and reconstructed ground motions as input action, the influence of long-period components on the seismic response of diagrid structure of high-rise building is studied. The results demonstrate that the MEEMD method can accurately extract long-period ground motion components from long-period ground motion. Long-period ground motion contains abundant short-term energy with low-frequency, which is the main reason for the large seismic response of long-period structure. The seismic response of diagrid structure is closely related to the natural period of the structure and the spectrum characteristics of the ground motion.
In order to better evaluate the performance of the base isolated structure under the near-fault earthquakes, this paper takes into consideration an existing engineering case study in China as the prototype, and uses OpenSEES platform to establish the nonlinear finite element model of the base isolated structure. The nonlinear response of the isolated structure under the near-fault earthquake is analyzed. The incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method is used to calculate the damage probability of the structure under the near-fault earthquake, and the fragility curve of the base isolated structure is established. The fragility equation is obtained by nonlinear regression, and the error of fragility equation is analyzed. The results show that the maximum value of the inter-story drift of the upper structure under the action of near-fault earthquake is significantly greater than that under the action of far-fault earthquake. With the increase of seismic intensity, the damage probability of base isolated structure increases nonlinearly, and the maximum response value of horizontal displacement of bearing and inter-story drift of superstructure increases generally. In addition, the exceeding probability of the fragility curve based on PSDA is greater than that based on EDP criterion. When the sample points of the two methods are the same, the exceeding probability points calculated based on PSDA can be regarded as accurate values. The fragility curve based on PSDA may overestimate the exceeding probability to some extent, and the overestimation may be enlarged with the increase of failure stage.
On April 25, 2015, a M8.1 earthquake happened near Pokhara, Nepal, and aftershocks occurred continuously which caused significant losses. In November 2015, the authors made an in-depth investigation on the earthquake
damages of various engineering structures in Nepal. As the post-disaster reconstruction work has not been completed, up to this day, the current reconstruction work is still worthy of continuous attention. Firstly, the earthquake damage of typical frame and masonry buildings in Nepal was described and the causes of damage were analyzed. The reinforcement measures and suggestions were putted forward for post-earthquake reconstruction,
which focused on the load transmission path of the structure, the enclosure structure, the beam-column joints, the integrity of the structure, house site selection and structural stiffness. With the help of the finite element software, the numerical modeling analysis of the wall reinforcement measures and a typical reconstruction house was carried out. The results show that the seismic performance of masonry wall can be greatly improved after being wrapped by reinforced concrete or seismic band, the use of seismic band in reconstruction of typical houses in Nepal can effectively improve the seismic performance of buildings. The surrounding areas of door and window openings are still the most vulnerable places to be damaged. Reinforcement should be strengthened in these locations.
We address the modeling of spatial distribution of coseismic landslides, based on an empirical approach applied to both recent and historical well-documented events. We analyze a dataset of 11 historical and recent normal faulting earthquakes in the Italian Central Apennines. Firstly, making use of a kernel density estimator approach, we calculated the regression between the extent of the maximum area affected by landslides (A; km2) and Mw, on the combined dataset of recent and historic earthquakes: Log A = (1.0397 Mw)–3.9288. Then, for recent earthquakes only, we analyzed the attenuation regression of landslide density (Dens; no. of landslides/km2) with distance from surface fault trace (Dfault; meters): Dens = 0.3661 × exp (− 5.053 Dfault). Historical events, still presenting systematically lower values of landslide densities, can be regressed on the same functional form resulting in a similar factor of attenuation with distance but with a different scaling factor. We thus argue that empirical regressions on historical earthquake-triggered landslides can be successfully exported elsewhere if a well-documented catalog is present and a calibration with several recent events can be done.
A detailed account is given of the fault geometry and segment structure of the East Anatolian Fault Zone as a whole based on mapping of active faults, supported by available seismological and palaeoseismological data. We divide the East Anatolian Fault into two main strands: southern and northern. The main southern strand is c. 580 km long between Karlıova and Antakya, and connects with the Dead Sea Fault Zone and the Cyprus Arc via the Amik triple junction. The northern strand, termed the Sürgü–Misis Fault system, is c. 350 km long and connects with the Kyrenia–Misis Fault Zone beneath the Gulf of İskenderun. We infer that slip partitioning between the main and northern strands of the East Anatolian Fault accommodates 2/3 and 1/3 of the slip rate of the lateral motion between the Arabian and Anatolian plates, respectively in the Çelikhan–Adana–Antakya region. Taking account of the time elapsed from the latest events on the East Anatolian Fault, we suggest that the Pazarcık and Amanos segments have the potential to produce destructive earthquakes in the near future.
Supplementary material
The data and interpretations given here are supported by five additional annotated field photographs and two tables of factual data, these are available at www.geolsoc.org.uk/SUP18568
This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects,
including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40years. These processes are of great importance
to the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently
being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An
important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)?
Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER’s overall assessment
of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes
have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent
2004 Great Sumatra–Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential
for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our
findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings
of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their
general predictability.
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