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The Role of Numeracy in Judgment and Decision Making: The
Replication of Eleven Effects Across Various Numeracy Scales
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7D?ICI EH 8; CEH; IK?J78B; <EH IJK:O?D= :?<<;H;DJ FEFKB7
J?EDI ?; =;D;H7B LI >?=>BO ;:K97J;: FEFKB7J?EDI
!?D7BBO H;9E=D?P?D= J>7J DKC;H79O ?I DEJ 7 I?D=KB7H ;D
J?JO 7D: J>7J L7H?EKI JOF;I E< DKC;H?9 9ECF;J;D9?;I C7O
9ECFB;C;DJ ;79> EJ>;H +7J7B7DE ;J 7B +;J;HI
+;J;HI @7BA;8H?D= +;J;HI ->EEJI,;?D>7H:
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M; 7BIE EFJ;: JE :;BL; ?DJE J>; ;<<;9JI E< IK8@;9J?L;
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8;H C7FF?D= J7IA ?D M>?9> F7HJ?9?F7DJI 7H; 7IA;: JE BE97J;
DKC8;HI ED 7 DKC8;H B?D; 7D9>EH;: M?J> 7D:
The Effects Selected for Replication
;BEM M; FHEL?:; 7 9ED9?I; EL;HL?;M E< J>; ;<<;9JI I;
B;9J;: <EH H;FB?97J?ED 799ECF7D?;: 8O 7 8H?;< EKJB?D; E< J>;
EH?=?D7B IJK:?;I] C;J>E:EBE=O 7D: J>; FH?C7HO H;IKBJI J>7J
I;HL;: 7I J>; <E9KI E< EKH H;FB?97J?ED ;<<EHJI
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@;9J?L; DKC;H79O C;7IKH;: 8O J>; ). EA;BO ;J 7B
7D: 7FFB?97J?ED E< :;9?I?ED HKB;I H;I?IJ7D9; JE IKDA
9EIJ 7D: 9EDI?IJ;D9O ?D H?IA F;H9;FJ?ED C;7IKH;: 8O J>;
:KBJ ;9?I?ED (7A?D= ECF;J;D9; ( HK?D; :;
HK?D ;J 7B .>; C7?D 7?C E< J>; IJK:O M7I JE ?D
L;IJ?=7J; M>?9> 9E=D?J?L; 78?B?J?;I FH;:?9J;: =;D;H7B :;
9?I?EDC7A?D= 9ECF;J;D9; *L;H J>H;; I;II?EDI KJ?B?P?D=
8EJ> 9ECFKJ;H87I;: 7D: F7F;HF;D9?B C;J>E:I KD?
L;HI?JO IJK:;DJI <HEC -M;:;D KD:;HM;DJ 7 9ECFH;>;DI?L;
87JJ;HO E< J;IJI ;D9ECF7II?D= DKC;H79O :;9?I?EDC7A?D=
9ECF;J;D9; ;N;9KJ?L; <KD9J?EDI 7D: 9E=D?J?L; 78?B?J?;I
.>; IJK:O H;L;7B;: 7 FEI?J?L; 7IIE9?7J?ED 8;JM;;D >?=>;H
E8@;9J?L; DKC;H79O 7D: IKF;H?EH 7FFB?97J?ED E< :;9?I?ED
HKB;I ?D9H;7I;: H;I?IJ7D9; JE IKDA 9EIJ 7D: =H;7J;H 9EDI?I
J;D9O ?D H?IA F;H9;FJ?ED *KH H;FB?97J?ED I;;AI JE L7B?:7J;
7D: ;NJ;D: J>;I; E8I;HL;: ;<<;9JI
S01: People with higher numeracy apply decision
rules more correctly. $D J>; ^7FFBO?D= :;9?I?ED HKB;I_ IK8
I97B; E< ( F7HJ?9?F7DJI M;H; 7IA;: JE 9ECFB;J; J;D
J7IAI H;GK?H?D= 7FFBO?D= IF;9?b;: :;9?I?ED HKB;I JE ?D:?97J;
<EH ;79> >OFEJ>;J?97B 9EDIKC;H M>?9> E< J>; 0 FB7O;HI
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7=; E< 9EHH;9J 7DIM;HI 6 5
S02: People with higher numeracy are more resistant
to sunk cost. $D J>; ^H;I?IJ7D9; JE IKDA 9EIJ_ IK8I97B; E<
( F7HJ?9?F7DJI M;H; 7IA;: JE 7DIM;H J;D ?J;CI ED 7
I?NFE?DJ I97B; @K:=?D= J>; B?A;B?>EE: J>7J J>;O MEKB: ?=
DEH; FH?EH ?DL;IJC;DJI M>;D C7A?D= :;9?I?EDI ;= ^+
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9EC; L7H?78B; ?D:?97J?D= >?=>;H H;I?IJ7D9; JE IKDA 9EIJ M7I
J>; 7L;H7=; H7J?D= 79HEII ?J;CI .>; H;IKBJI ?D:?97J;: J>7J
>?=>;H E8@;9J?L; DKC;H79O M7I H;B7J;: JE >?=>;H H;I?IJ7D9;
JE IKDA 9EIJ 6 5
S04: People with higher numeracy are more consis -
tent in their risk perception. $D J>; ^9EDI?IJ;D9O ?D H?IA
F;H9;FJ?ED_ IK8I97B; E< ( F7HJ?9?F7DJI M;H; 7IA;: JE
H7J; J>; F;H9;DJ7=; FHE878?B?J?;I E< J;D I;JI E< EFFEI?D=
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=*&6_ .>; EKJ9EC; L7H?78B; ?D:?97J?D= >?=>;H
9EDI?IJ;D9O ?D H?IA F;H9;FJ?ED M7I J>; F;H9;DJ7=; E< 9EDI?I
J;DJ H?IA @K:=C;DJI .>; H;IKBJI ?D:?97J;: J>7J >?=>;H IJ7
J?IJ?97B DKC;H79O M7I H;B7J;: JE >?=>;H 9EDI?IJ;D9O ?D H?IA
F;H9;FJ?ED 6 5
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S05: People with higher numeracy make more
choices maximizing expected value. $D J>; EH?=?D7B IJK:O
-E8AEM *BIP;MIA7 7D: .H79POA ?DL;IJ?=7J;: J>; H;
B7J?EDI>?F 8;JM;;D E8@;9J?L; DKC;H79O C;7IKH;: 8O J>;
). 7D: IKF;H?EH :;9?I?ED C7A?D= KD:;H H?IA KI?D= 7 I;J
E< CED;J7HO BEJJ;H?;I $D 7D EDB?D; IJK:O +EB?I>IF;7A
?D= F7HJ?9?F7DJI <HEC J>; =;D;H7B FEFKB7J?ED M;H;
7IA;: JE I;B;9J 7D 7BJ;HD7J?L; J>;O FH;<;HH;: ?D J;D CED;
J7HO BEJJ;H?;I ;= ^%.3
+46
796*
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78B; ?D:?97J?D= IKF;H?EH :;9?I?ED C7A?D= M7I J>; DKC8;H E<
9>E?9;I J>7J C7N?C?P;: ;NF;9J;: L7BK; 0 .>; H;IKBJI ?D
-- 7H; J>; DKC8;HI E< H;FB?97J;: ;<<;9JI 7I F;H EKH FH;H;=?IJH7J?ED >JJFIEI<?EJPOD
.>; ,EB; E< )KC;H79O ?D %K:=C;DJ 7D: ;9?I?ED (7A?D= .>; ,;FB?97J?ED E< B;L;D <<;9JI 9HEII 07H?EKI a
411&'6&
7=(-414,= 3
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S06: People with higher numeracy demonstrate bet -
ter medical risk comprehension. $D J>; EH?=?D7B IJK:O
,EB?IED (EHI7DO? 7D: +;J;HI ;NFBEH;: >EM E8@;9
J?L; DKC;H79O IK8@;9J?L; DKC;H79O 7D: C7J> 7DN?;JO 7H;
7IIE9?7J;: M?J> H?IA 9ECFH;>;DI?ED *8@;9J?L; DKC;H79O
M7I C;7IKH;: 8O 7 I97B; 9EDI?IJ?D= E< ?J;CI J7A;D <HEC
-9>M7HJP ;J 7B J>; NF7D:;: )KC;H79O -97B; '?F
AKI ;J 7B 7D: J>; E=D?J?L; ,;c;9J?ED .;IJ +H?C?
;J 7B (;:?97B H?IA 9ECFH;>;DI?ED M7I 7II;II;:
J>HEK=> ?J;CI 9EL;H?D= J>; KD:;HIJ7D:?D= E< 78IEBKJ;
H?IA H;B7J?L; H?IA J>; B?<;J?C; H?IA E< 97D9;H 87I;: ED =;
D;J?9 J;IJ?D= H7J?EI C?I9ED9;FJ?EDI 78EKJ J>; B?A;B?>EE: E<
H7D:EC ;L;DJI ?D 7 >EIF?J7B I;JJ?D= FHEFEHJ?EDI ?D:?97J
?D= J>; F;H9;DJ7=; E< ?D:?L?:K7BI 7J ?D9H;7I;: H?IA E< :;
L;BEF?D= 7 I;H?EKI >;7BJ> 9ED:?J?ED 7D: 9ECFH;>;DI?ED E<
9ECF7H7J?L; ?D<EHC7J?ED H;B7J;: JE CKBJ?FB; >EIF?J7B F;H
<EHC7D9; ?D:?97JEHI .>; EKJ9EC; L7H?78B; <EH C;:?97B H?IA
9ECFH;>;DI?ED M7I GK7DJ?b;: 7I J>; DKC8;H E< 9EHH;9J 7D
IM;HI .>?I EDB?D; IJK:O ?DLEBL;: F7HJ?9?F7DJI M?J>
<HEC J>; /- EH 7D7:7 <HEC J>; /& EH $H;B7D:
7D: <HEC EJ>;H 9EKDJH?;I .>; H;IKBJI ?D:?97J;: J>7J F;E
FB; M?J> >?=>;H E8@;9J?L; DKC;H79O :;CEDIJH7J;: 8;JJ;H
C;:?97B H?IA 9ECFH;>;DI?ED 6 5
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A?DI ;J 7B J>; FH?C7HO E8@;9J?L; M7I JE ;NFBEH; J>;
?DJ;HFB7O 8;JM;;D E8@;9J?L; DKC;H79O DKC;H?9 I;B<;<b
979O B?DA;: JE IK8@;9J?L; DKC;H79O 7D: J>;?H @E?DJ ;<
<;9J ED bD7D9?7B EKJ9EC;I .>?I B7H=;I97B; EDB?D; IJK:O ?D
LEBL;: F7HJ?9?F7DJI <HEC J>; /D:;HIJ7D:?D= C;H?97 -JK:O
M>E 9ECFB;J;: L7H?EKI 7II;IIC;DJI ?D9BK:?D=
C;7IKH;I E< DKC;H79O 7D: bD7D9?7B EKJ9EC;I .>; IF;9?b9
;<<;9JI M; 9>EI; <EH EKH H;FB?97J?ED FHE@;9J M;H; J>; FEI?
J?L; 7IIE9?7J?EDI 8;JM;;D E8@;9J?L; DKC;H79O 1;BB;H ;J 7B
bD7D9?7B ADEMB;:=; 7D: bD7D9?7B M;BB8;?D=
S03: People with higher numeracy have better =nan -
cial knowledge. I 7 C;7IKH; E< bD7D9?7B ADEMB;:=; F7H
J?9?F7DJI H;IFED:;: JE JHK;<7BI; ;= ^43)7
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J>; IKC E< 9EHH;9J 7DIM;HI 9EDL;HJ;: JE 7D ;IJ?C7J;: ?J;C
H;IFEDI; J>;EHO I9EH; #?=>;H I9EH;I ?D:?97J;: =H;7J;H b
D7D9?7B ADEMB;:=; .>; H;IKBJI ?D:?97J;: J>7J >?=>;H E8@;9
J?L; DKC;H79O M7I H;B7J;: JE =H;7J;H bD7D9?7B ADEMB;:=; 6
5
S07: People with higher numeracy declare higher = -
nancial well-being. I 7 C;7IKH; E< bD7D9?7B M;BB8;?D=
F7HJ?9?F7DJI 7DIM;H;: J;D GK;IJ?EDI 7II;II?D= J>;?H F;H
9;?L;: bD7D9?7B M;BB8;?D= ED 7 FE?DJ I97B; ;= ^
(&3
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#?=>;H I9EH;I ?D:?97J;: IKF;H?EH bD7D9?7B M;BB8;?D= .>;
H;IKBJI ?D:?97J;: J>7J >?=>;H E8@;9J?L; DKC;H79O M7I H;
B7J;: JE =H;7J;H bD7D9?7B M;BB8;?D= 6 5
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?DJE J>; CE:;H7J?D= HEB; E< E8@;9J?L; DKC;H79O C;7IKH;:
KI?D= J>; I97B; :;L;BEF;: 8O '?FAKI ;J 7B ?D 7BB IJK:
?;I J>; 7KJ>EHI KI;: 7 C;:?7D IFB?J E< J>; DKC;H79O L7H?
78B; ?D :;9?I?ED C7A?D= F7HJ?9KB7HBO ?D 7JJH?8KJ; <H7C?D=
H?IA H;FH;I;DJ7J?ED FH;<;H;D9; <EH IK8EFJ?C7B EFJ?EDI 7D:
J>; 7JJH79J?L;D;II E< I?CFB; =7C8B;I !EH EKH ?DL;IJ?=7J?ED
M; <E9KI;: ED -JK:?;I 7D: M>?9> 7H; ;NFB7?D;: 8;
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S08: Peters et al. (2006) Study 1 - People with lower
numeracy show a stronger framing effect. $D -JK:O +;
J;HI ;J 7B ?DL;IJ?=7J;: M>;J>;H J>; B;L;B E< E8@;9
J?L; DKC;H79O CE:;H7J;I J>; IKI9;FJ?8?B?JO JE J>; 7JJH?8KJ;
<H7C?D= ;<<;9J\J>; 9E=D?J?L; 8?7I M>;H; F;EFB;]I :;9?I?EDI
7H; ?DcK;D9;: 8O >EM J>; ?D<EHC7J?ED ?I FH;I;DJ;: F7H
J?9KB7HBO M>;J>;H ?J ?I <H7C;: FEI?J?L;BO EH D;=7J?L;BO .>;
IJK:O M7I 9ED:K9J;: ?D 7D ;NF;H?C;DJ7B :;I?=D 7I 7 F7HJ
E< 7 I;H?;I E< F7F;H7D:F;D9?B ;NF;H?C;DJI ED 7 I7CFB;
9EDI?IJ?D= E< LEBKDJ;;HI M>E H;IFED:;: JE 7D 7DDEKD9;
C;DJ ?D 7 97CFKI D;MIB;JJ;H ?D J>; /D?J;: -J7J;I
.>; <H7C?D= ;<<;9JI M;H; J;IJ;: 8O FH;I;DJ?D= F7HJ?9?F7DJI
M?J> J>; ;N7C I9EH;I E< bL; FIO9>EBE=O IJK:;DJI 7D: 7IA
?D= IK8@;9JI JE H7J; ;79> IJK:;DJ]I GK7B?JO E< MEHA ED 7
FE?DJ I97B; H7D=?D= <HEC L;HO FEEH JE L;HO =EE:
.>; <H7C?D= E< J>; ;N7C I9EH;I M7I C7D?FKB7J;: 8;JM;;D
J>; IK8@;9JI ;F;D:?D= ED J>; =HEKF JE M>?9> F7HJ?9?F7DJI
M;H; 7II?=D;: J>; H;IKBJI M;H; FH;I;DJ;: ?D J>; <EHC E<
;?J>;H J>; F;H9;DJ7=; E< 9EHH;9J 7DIM;HI EH J>; F;H9;DJ
7=; E< ?D9EHH;9J 7DIM;HI !EH ;N7CFB; :;F;D:?D= ED 9ED
:?J?ED 7 IJK:;DJ M7I :;I9H?8;: 7I H;9;?L?D= ;?J>;H 9EH
H;9J EH ?D9EHH;9J ED J>;?H ;N7C .>; H;IKBJI ?D:?97J;:
J>7J B;II DKC;H7J; F7HJ?9?F7DJI I>EM;: 7 IJHED=;H <H7C?D=
;<<;9J J>7D >?=>BO DKC;H7J; F7HJ?9?F7DJI 5
η
S11: Peters et al. (2006) Study 3 - People with lower
numeracy have a stronger preference for suboptimal
options than people with higher numeracy (jellybeans
task). $D -JK:O +;J;HI ;J 7B ?DL;IJ?=7J;: M>;J>;H
8EJ> J>; H;FH;I;DJ7J?ED E< DKC;H?97B ?D<EHC7J?ED ?; <H;
GK;D9O LI F;H9;DJ7=; 7D: DKC;H79O >7: 7D ;<<;9J ED :;
9?I?EDI .>; IJK:O M7I 9ED:K9J;: 7CED= LEBKDJ;;HI <HEC
7 FIO9>EBE=O 9EKHI; M>E M;H; FH;I;DJ;: M?J> JME
:H7M?D=I E< 8EMBI bBB;: M?J> 9EBEH;: 7D: M>?J; @;BBO8;7DI
EMB M7I B7H=;H 7D: 9EDJ7?D;: @;BBO8;7DI E< M>?9>
M;H; 9EBEH;: EMB 9EDJ7?D;: @;BBO8;7DI E< M>?9>
M7I 9EBEH;: EJ> 8EMBI M;H; B78;B;: M?J> J>; F;H9;DJ
7=; E< 9EBEH;: @;BBO8;7DI EMB 9EBEH;: @;BBO8;7DI
LI EMB 9EBEH;: @;BBO8;7DI .>; F7HJ?9?F7DJI M;H;
7IA;: M>?9> 8EMB J>;O MEKB: 9>EEI; ED 7 FE?DJ I97B;
.>; ,EB; E< )KC;H79O ?D %K:=C;DJ 7D: ;9?I?ED (7A?D= .>; ,;FB?97J?ED E< B;L;D <<;9JI 9HEII 07H?EKI a
411&'6&
7=(-414,= 4
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S09: Study 4 - People with higher numeracy =nd the
loss bet more attractive than the no-loss bet. $D J>;?H
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predictive value of the diagnostic test among people
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Selection Criteria
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J>; !79KBJO E< +IO9>EBE=O ?D 1HE9B7M 7J -1+- /D?L;HI?JO
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Results
Main Analyses
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J>; C7?D ;<<;9JI E< J>; BEIIDEBEII 8;J
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8B; M; :?: DEJ bD: 7 I?=D?b97DJ ?DJ;H79J?ED ;<<;9J
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1; KI;: 1;8+BEJ?=?J?P;H >JJFI7KJEC;H?I?E JE ;NJH79J :7J7 H;=7H:?D= C;7DI 7D: IJ7D:7H: :;L?7J?EDI
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411&'6&
7=(-414,= 6
Downloaded from http://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article-pdf/11/1/128514/851398/collabra_2025_11_1_128514.pdf by guest on 04 February 2025
Table 1. Replicated effects with varied objective numeracy scales.
7764E $) &6E6CD":A<FD 2C4:2'6E2>6C@ '@=:D@? ,6==6C
(64:D:@?CF=6D .53***
((F?<4@DE .09
(:?2?4:2=<?@H=6586 .28***
(@?D:DE6?4J:?C:D<A6C46AE:@? .19**
(IA64E65G2=F6 .26***
(#65:42=C:D<4@>AC696?D:@? .57***
(:?2?4:2=H6==36:?8 .09
(C2>:?8 .03
("@DDGD?@=@DD36ED .08
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Figure 2. Differences between conditions for experimental effects: attribute framing (S08), loss/no-loss bet (S09),
and visual aids (S10) in original and replication studies. Error bars represent 95% CI. Participants were divided
into low/high numeracy groups based on a median split. Means and standard deviations in the original studies
were simulated based on the available data and analyses provided in the articles.
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Table 2. Descriptive statistics and Pearson’s correlations among various numeracy measures.
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Downloaded from http://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article-pdf/11/1/128514/851398/collabra_2025_11_1_128514.pdf by guest on 04 February 2025
Table 3. Replicated effects when subjective and approximate numeracy measures were used.
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411&'6&
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Downloaded from http://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article-pdf/11/1/128514/851398/collabra_2025_11_1_128514.pdf by guest on 04 February 2025
Table 4. Linear regression models predicting replicated effects with the original objective numeracy scales and subjective/approximate numeracy measures.
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411&'6&
7=(-414,= 12
Downloaded from http://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article-pdf/11/1/128514/851398/collabra_2025_11_1_128514.pdf by guest on 04 February 2025
7764E @67N4:6?E b SE t p R2 @67N4:6?E b SE t p R2
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411&'6&
7=(-414,= 13
Downloaded from http://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article-pdf/11/1/128514/851398/collabra_2025_11_1_128514.pdf by guest on 04 February 2025
Table 5. Evaluation of the replication attempts using additional criteria (based on Errington et al. , 2021)
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The Complementary Effects of Subjective and
Approximate Numeracy on Decision Making
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Downloaded from http://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article-pdf/11/1/128514/851398/collabra_2025_11_1_128514.pdf by guest on 04 February 2025
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Acknowledgments
1; M7DJ JE J>7DA J>; ;7D E< J>; !79KBJO E< +IO9>EBE=O
?D 1HE9B7M -1+- /D?L;HI?JO <EH J>; IKFFEHJ <EH J>?I FHE
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Funding Information
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Competing Interests
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Supplementary Materials
Peer Review Communication
@H?=@259EEAD4@==23C2D49@=2DE:429B4@>2CE:4=6E96C@=6@7?F>6C24J:?;F58>6?E2?5564:D:@?
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Response Letter
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Cover Letter
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