The Future of Social Policy
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Extant literature points to how the risk of discrimination is intrinsic to AI systems owing to the dependence on training data and the difficulty of post hoc algorithmic auditing. Transparency and auditability limitations are problematic both for companies’ prevention efforts and for government oversight, both in terms of how artificial intelligence (AI) systems function and how large‐scale digital platforms support recruitment processes. This article explores the risks and users’ understandings of discrimination when using AI and automated decision‐making (ADM) in worker recruitment. We rely on data in the form of 110 completed questionnaires with representatives from 10 of the 50 largest recruitment agencies in Sweden and representatives from 100 Swedish companies with more than 100 employees (“major employers”). In this study, we made use of an open definition of AI to accommodate differences in knowledge and opinion around how AI and ADM are understood by the respondents. The study shows a significant difference between direct and indirect AI and ADM use, which has implications for recruiters’ awareness of the potential for bias or discrimination in recruitment. All of those surveyed made use of large digital platforms like Facebook and LinkedIn for their recruitment, leading to concerns around transparency and accountability—not least because most respondents did not explicitly consider this to be AI or ADM use. We discuss the implications of direct and indirect use in recruitment in Sweden, primarily in terms of transparency and the allocation of accountability for bias and discrimination during recruitment processes.
This introduction to our themed section on social policy responses to the recent cost-of-living crisis spells out this topic and the key issues examined in the section’s main contributions before summarising their findings and overall contribution to the literature. More specifically, to frame this themed section, the present Introduction begins with a concise, up-to-date overview of the inflationary crisis that emerged in late 2021 and evolved throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023. It then charts, and reflects upon, the diversity of responses enacted in a variety of countries reflective of different models of welfare provision in Europe and North America.
This article highlights the limitations of unidimensional analyses in the comparative welfare state literature and emphasises the need for a more holistic, multidimensional approach incorporating social spending, welfare state outputs, and outcomes. To illustrate the utility of a multidimensional approach, we examine the long-term welfare state trajectories of Sweden and Germany, prototypical social-democratic and conservative welfare states, respectively, and compare them against the baseline of Europe's prototypical liberal welfare state, the United Kingdom. The social spending (expenditure) and output (generosity) allowed us to identify significant changes in the Swedish welfare state (i.e., retrenchment). The outcome dimension alerts us to a policy drift in the German Welfare State, as relatively stable public spending and welfare generosity until the first half of the 2000s were nonetheless associated with sharply increased inequality and poverty. Overall, our findings suggest that a holistic, multidimensional approach is necessary to fully understand the complexities of welfare state change and continuity, as focusing solely on one dimension can lead to analytical misjudgments. The sharp rise in inequality and poverty across countries raises doubts about whether policymakers and researchers rely too much on outdated assumptions of normality that fail to meet the welfare state realities of today.
Here we represent human lives in a way that shares structural similarity to language, and we exploit this similarity to adapt natural language processing techniques to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on a comprehensive registry dataset, which is available for Denmark across several years, and that includes information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space, showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to discover potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes as well as the associated possibilities for personalized interventions.
This paper compares social policy responses to the cost-of-living crisis in the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland. In seeking to protect citizens from an inflationary shock, a series of fundamental social policy questions arise. What would the aims of support packages be? To what extent should support be universal or targeted? If targeted, did existing policy architectures facilitate or frustrate the targeting of support? As the scale and persistence of the inflationary shock became evident, smaller and near-universal responses gave way to larger support packages with a greater reliance on targeting. Social security systems played an important role in policy responses, though often by passporting one-off payments rather than a strengthening of these core programmes. Passporting led both to improved distributional outcomes vis-à-vis the more universal elements but created new administrative challenges and led to rough justice in some circumstances. The reliance on one-off payments underlined the temporary nature of policy responses.
The cost-of-living crisis that began in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis and the attempted Russian invasion of Ukraine has major implications for social policy. In advanced industrial countries, this is the most dramatic cost-of-living crisis since the mid-late 1970s and early 1980s. In this contribution, we explore the inflation and social policy nexus to identify the nature and sources of inflation, its redistributive and policy implications, and the specific nature of the current cost-of-living crisis compared to two other recent crises: the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on advanced industrial countries and drawing on the available scholarship about these topics, we offer the background necessary to understand the challenges facing welfare states in times of dramatically high inflation. As a way to provide broad context to the present themed section, our discussion stresses the economic, social, and political dynamics shaping social policy adaptation to inflationary pressures.
The Netherlands recently experienced a crisis in childcare benefits, leading to ‘unprecedented injustice’ for many parents falsely accused of defrauding the childcare benefit system. This crisis highlights multiple barriers in parents’ ability to access childcare already evident prior to the crisis, including the far-reaching digitalisation of social policies and childcare benefits in particular. Digitalisation can make parents feel childcare services are less accessible, thereby creating or exacerbating existing inequalities in childcare use. Parents may also lack the skills needed to navigate complex application procedures, which can affect their perceived access to childcare benefits, particularly in market-led systems with greater reliance on government benefits to cover the high costs of childcare. Extending recent research on childcare capabilities, we investigate the extent to which digital and functional literacy affect parents’ perceived access to childcare benefits in the Netherlands. The results from our exploratory quantitative analysis provide a starting point for understanding the understudied relationships between digitalisation, parents’ abilities to navigate complex childcare or other policy systems, and their (perceived) ability to access childcare benefits. We use these findings to develop multiple future research recommendations in the childcare policy literature.
Countries are increasingly looking to ‘digitalise’ how public services are delivered, with welfare‐to‐work and public employment services being key sites of reform. It is hoped that digitalisation can achieve efficient, effective, and targeted services for those in need and there is now a growing body of research on both the opportunities and pitfalls associated with this transition to digital welfare states. However, as a concept, ‘digitalisation’ remains ambiguously defined, hindering understanding of the distinct ways that discrete technological innovations are reshaping citizens' access to social protection and the role of street‐level discretion in welfare administration. Drawing on interviews with expert informants from three countries pioneering digital reforms, this study aims to better understand what digitalisation entails for the delivery of activation. We identify three discrete modes of ‘digitalisation’ in welfare‐to‐work programmes: virtual engagement (remote activation), transactional automation (self‐activation), and digital triaging (targeted activation). Far from digitalisation heralding the automation and curtailment of frontline discretion, the different modes reshape frontline delivery and citizens' access to social protection in specific ways.
What explains welfare chauvinistic policy reform, i.e. targeted exclusion of non-citizens from welfare? Existing research suggest that contextual factors like far-right party success, perceived immigration pressures, party ideologies and institutions could spur such reform, but the processes behind reforms remain understudied. This paper draws on public policy literature to call attention the critical role of agency and institutions in welfare chauvinist reform. It focuses on a law excluding migrant EU citizens from social assistance in Germany. Through process tracing and inductive reconstruction of the policy process, based on political documents, interviews, media reporting and descriptive statistics, we show that the policy proposal originated from German city administrations; that the city of Hamburg was key in pushing for exclusions; and that Hamburg's success in doing so crucially depended on the city's mayor. Several comparable German cities (in terms of party politics and levels of immigration) were equally concerned with 'welfare immigration' and complained about problem pressure, but only Hamburg had a committed mayor with the right political networks and institutional resources to lobby for welfare exclusions at the federal level.
UK policy discourse presents technology as a solution to challenges facing care services, including issues of quality and the mismatch between care workforce supply and demand. This discourse characterises technology as ‘transformative’, homogenous and wholly positive for care delivery, eliding the diversity of digital devices and systems and their varied uses. Our paper draws on data gathered through 34 interviews with care sector stakeholders and four in-depth case studies of UK homecare providers to comparatively analyse ‘storylines’ of technological solutions expressed by policy (macro-level), sector stakeholders (meso-level) and homecare managers and care workers (micro-level) alongside enacted experiences of technology-in-use. The ‘storylines’ presented by care sector stakeholders and homecare managers converged with those of the policy discourse, emphasising technology’s capacity to enhance quality and efficiency. Our case studies however highlighted several implications for care work and organisational practice in homecare provision: the technologies we observed sometimes produced additional tasks and responsibilities, undermining the efficiency and quality storylines. The experiences of care providers and workers engaging with technologies in homecare warrant further investigation and greater prominence to challenge a discourse which is at times overly simplistic and optimistic.
While the drivers of preferences about tax progressivity and redistribution are well identified, the study of willingness to pay taxes remains underdeveloped. This article uses the 2016 ISSP on the Role of Government and the 2018 OECD Risks that Matter surveys to identify which groups of voters are more likely to be willing to pay taxes. It shows that ideology mediates the correlations between education or income and willingness to pay. Among the left, income and education tend to have a positive association with willingness to pay taxes, whereas both variables are negatively associated with willingness to pay among the right. Thus, the core constituencies of left-wing parties composed of socio-cultural professionals and of production and service workers have different tax policy preferences. Socio-cultural professionals, with their higher education and income, are significantly more willing to pay taxes than production and service workers, who share lower education and income.
Denmark is a pioneering country regarding digitalization. The Danish public administration is a clear frontrunner and has been submitted to significant changes. Contact between the administrative authorities and the citizens is predominantly digitalized and digital self-service solutions and automated decisions are increasingly used. Theoretically the point of departure is George Ritzer´s theory that societies worldwide are subject to a far-reaching process of McDonaldization, which leads to the implementation of the modes of organisation and production found in fast-food restaurants in other sectors in society. The theory of McDonaldization is applied to the digitalization of the public administration in Denmark. The article further explains the findings from a sample survey on specific digital solutions in Denmark and how the citizens perceive these solutions.
Dinamarca es un país pionero en materia de digitalización. La administración pública danesa es una clara pionera y se ha visto sometida a cambios significativos. El contacto entre las autoridades administrativas y los ciudadanos se realiza, de forma predominante, digitalmente, y cada vez se utilizan más las soluciones digitales de autoservicio y las decisiones automatizadas. Teóricamente, el punto de partida es la teoría de George Ritzer según la cual las sociedades de todo el mundo están sometidas a un proceso de McDonaldización de gran alcance, que conduce a la implantación de los modos de organización y producción que se encuentran en los restaurantes de comida rápida en otros sectores de la sociedad. La teoría de la McDonaldización se aplica a la digitalización de la administración pública en Dinamarca. El artículo explica además los resultados de una encuesta por muestreo sobre soluciones digitales específicas en Dinamarca y cómo perciben los ciudadanos estas soluciones.
Scholars have long recognized the role of race and ethnicity in shaping the development and design of policy institutions in the United States, including social welfare policy. Beyond influencing the design of policy institutions, administrative discretion can disadvantage marginalized clientele in policy implementation. Building on previous work on street-level bureaucracy, administrative discretion, and administrative burden, we offer a theory of racialized administrative errors and we examine whether automation mitigates the adverse administrative outcomes experienced by clientele of color. We build on recent work examining the role of technological and administrative complexity in shaping the incidence of administrative errors, and test our theory of racialized administrative errors with claim-level administrative data from 53 US unemployment insurance programs, from 2002-2018. Using logistic regression, we find evidence of systematic differences by claimant race and ethnicity in the odds of a state workforce agency making an error when processing Unemployment Insurance claims. Our analysis suggests that non-white claimants are more likely to be affected by agency errors that result in underpayment of benefits than white claimants. We also find that automated state-client interactions reduce the likelihood of administrative errors for all groups compared to face-to-face interactions, including Black and Hispanic clientele, but some disparities persist.
Keywords: administrative errors, administrative burden, administrative data, race, unemployment insurance
Brief overview: How can technology and context mitigate inequities in administrative outcomes experienced by clientele of color, in the US unemployment insurance system?
This review seeks to present a comprehensive picture of recent discussions in the social sciences of the anticipated impact of AI on the world of work. Issues covered include: technological unemployment, algorithmic management, platform work and the politics of AI work. The review identifies the major disciplinary and methodological perspectives on AI’s impact on work, and the obstacles they face in making predictions. Two parameters influencing the development and deployment of AI in the economy are highlighted: the capitalist imperative and nationalistic pressures.
This systematic literature review (SLR) explores the impact of digital technologies on welfare states and bureaucracies, analyzing the evolving dynamics between the state and citizens. The integration of digital technologies reshapes traditional interactions, granting citizens new levels of autonomy and responsibility. Service delivery evolves from conventional bureaucracies to dynamic, data‐driven systems. Employing the PRISMA methodology, the review covers articles from 2017 to 2024, synthesizing insights from 37 selected articles. Key themes, challenges, and opportunities associated with digital transformation in the welfare state are identified. The study offers valuable insights for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners navigating the complex intersection of technology and welfare provision. It underscores the need for a balanced approach to welfare transformation, addressing both the benefits of digitalization and potential challenges such as exclusion, citizen profiling, and other ethical concerns.
This conceptual article and special issue introduction argues for the importance of studying three policy paradigms surrounding welfare policy opposition. The first is welfare populism, the opposition to welfare policies that do not benefit the ‘common people’. The second is welfare chauvinism, the opposition to welfare policies for non-natives within a nation-state. The third is welfare Euroscepticism, the opposition to welfare policies at the European Union level. These paradigms have distinct causes and consequences that should be studied in more detail across different political actors. And while welfare policy opposition may not lead to a complete farewell to welfare, they have been shaping and will continue to shape welfare state recalibration. This article offers summaries of the special issue contributions with empirical snapshots of welfare policy opposition and concludes with avenues for future research.
The European welfare systems, established after the Second World War, have been under sustained attack since the late 1970s from the neoliberal drive towards a small state and from the market as the foremost instrument for the efficient allocation of scarce resources. After the 2008 financial crash, Europe's high tax and generous benefits welfare states were, once again, blamed for economic stagnation and political immobilism. If anything, however, the long decade of the Great Recession proved that the welfare state remained a fundamental asset in hard times, stabilizing the economy, protecting households and individuals from poverty, reconciling gendered work and family life, while improving the skills and competences needed in Europe's knowledge economy and ageing society. Finally, the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic has, unsurprisingly, brought back into the limelight the productive role of welfare systems in guaranteeing basic security, human capabilities, economic opportunities, and democratic freedoms.
In this important contribution, Anton Hemerijck and Robin Huguenot-Noël examine the nature of European welfare provision and the untruths that surround it. They evaluate the impact of the austerity measures that followed the Great Recession, and consider its future design to better equip European societies to face social change, from global competition to accelerated demographic ageing, the digitalization of work and climate change.
Few would dispute that the well-being of individuals is one of the most desirable aims of human actions. However, approaches on how to define, measure, evaluate, and promote well-being differ widely. The conventional economic approach takes income (or the power to acquire market goods) as the most important indicator for well-being, and the utility function as the formal device for positive and normative analysis. However, this approach to well-being has been questioned for being seriously limited and other approaches have arisen. The capability approach to well-being, which has been developed during the last two decades by Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum, and the Happiness Approach to well-being, championed by Richard Easterlin, both provide an alternative. Both approaches come from different traditions and have developed independently, but nevertheless aim to overcome the rigid boundaries of the conventional economic approach to well-being. Given these common aims, it is surprising that little comparative work has been undertaken across these approaches. This book aims to correct this by providing the reader with contributions from leading names associated with both approaches, as well as contributions which evaluate the approaches and contrast one with the other.
Rising inflation in the Nordic societies has changed the living standards for many families. The situation differs not only between the four Nordic countries analysed, but even within each of the Nordic countries. The needs for intervention have varied. Several elements have been used to determine who is facing the most risks. This article shows how to combine automatic stabilisers with temporary policy interventions to deal with increased inflation in general or specific sub-elements (such as oil, natural gas). Focus is on the degree of and criteria for targeting. Possible distributional consequences of the adopted measures will be discussed. Lastly, the article considers whether the observed responses to the crisis have implications for the understanding of the Nordic welfare state model. The article investigates institutional, political and economic reasons for the variations in the interventions. The article concludes that in managing the crisis, the Nordic countries have adopted stronger targeting towards those considered to be in need, displaying some innovations in their social policy approach. Yet, one can trace a high degree of path-dependency, with the countries adhering to universalist principles, with an aim of redistributing resources.
Reducing debts and deficits in economic stable times has become the overarching policy goal after the financial and sovereign debt crisis. In an era of low growth, fiscal consolidation is seen as the central key to achieving the latter, however, often resulting in a trade-off between equality and efficiency. In this article, we study whether it is possible to achieve the seemingly impossible: pursuing successful fiscal consolidation without sharp increases in poverty. For this, we apply a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) among the countries of the European Economic Area (EEA) plus Switzerland between 1994 and 2019, excluding “the rainy day” (2008-2013) of the financial and the sovereign debt crisis. The absence of sluggish economic growth is identified as a necessary condition for reaching the outcome. Moreover, we find multiple sufficient paths, including such that are not export-driven but rely on domestic strategies (via high employment and a strong left) to achieve fair fiscal consolidation. However, to what extent such a strategy is still possible in the future remains an open question.
innovations to push the conversation about the digital transformation of the public
sector forward. This special issue focuses on actual implementation approaches or
challenges that public managers are facing while they fulfil new policy that asks for
the implementation of AI in public administrations. In addition to assessing the
contributions of papers in this issue, we also provide a research agenda on how future
research can fill some of the methodological, theoretical, and application gaps in the
public management literature.
Most governments in the world have taken responsibility for social policy and elected to develop services in health, education and social security. This book explores the role of government and the state in the contemporary world and discusses views about government responsibility for social welfare services.
Long-term care (LTC) is a key policy priority for governments internationally. Most countries are faced with demographic and/or socio-economic changes that are resulting in a significant growth in the need for LTC services. The impact on LTC systems of higher demand is compounded by long-run increases in service unit costs, and by reductions in the availability of unpaid care, which still provides the lion share of the support for people with long-term care needs. In addition, the rising political voice of key LTC consumer groups and the mounting pressures on public service budgets mean that LTC is likely to remain for the foreseeable future at the forefront of the political agenda across OECD nations. Since the 90s, long-term care policies have undergone significant transformations across many countries. In some instances, these changes have been the outcome of major explicit policy goals. In others, new systems have come about through the accumulation of incremental changes. As a result, LTC policy reforms in the last decades across OECD countries offer a rich body of experience that should inform the design of strategies for improving equity and efficiency in the LTC systems of the future. The main purpose of this book is to analyse the range of solutions adopted internationally about how to organise, regulate and fund LTC services in the face of the growing needs of ageing societies.
This book is concerned with ‘Social Investment’, in terms of a supply-side strategy complementing the demand-side emphasis of ‘Inclusive Growth’. Our aim is to show the logic of integrating and unifying these new strategies – and some of the challenges ahead - as we move decisively towards forging a new consensus in global policymaking for the twenty-first century based on this new policy perspective: Social Investment for Inclusive Growth.
Richard Titmuss was Professor of Social Administration at the London School of Economics (LSE) from 1950 until his death in 1973. His publications on welfare and social policy were radical and wide-ranging, spanning fields such as demography, class inequalities in health, social work, and altruism. Titmuss's work played a critical role in establishing the study of social policy as a scientific discipline; it helped to shape the development of the British Welfare State and influenced thinking about social policy worldwide. Despite its continuing relevance to current social policy issues both in the UK and internationally, much of Titmuss's work is now out of print.
Based on original evidence from the European Social Policy Network (ESPN), the article investigates the extent to which self-employed and non-standard workers, who are less protected by "ordinary" social protection, were included in "extraordinary" income protection and job retention schemes during the COVID-19 pandemic in the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom. When the crisis hit, countries quickly introduced unprecedented emergency income replacement measures for the self-employed. Nevertheless, most of these schemes provided only basic support through lump sums and were, in some cases, subject to a variety of eligibility conditions. Non-standard workers were in general included in job retention schemes, but substantial gaps remained in some countries. The article discusses how such gaps were addressed in five EU Member States. The article concludes by highlighting some policy pointers for better and more adequate "extraordinary" income protection for the self-employed and non-standard workers in times of crisis.
Activation as a social policy topic has been investigated since the late 1990s and continues to be popular in academic analysis and discourse. In this review, we highlight the wide range of research aims and themes covered within relevant publications. We also identify a considerable degree of conceptual inconsistency and ambiguity across the literature. Informed by methodological considerations, we conclude by suggesting a parsimonious root concept of activation which would allow for a more consistent and less ambiguous application within and across different levels of analysis.