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The polycrisis is here, and system dynamics can help: a call to action
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The Anthropocene is a proposed geological epoch that marks the significant impact of human activities on the Earth's ecosystems (Lewis, Maslin 2015). Humanity currently faces many interwoven challenges and traps arising from intricate interactions between humans and their environment. These challenges and traps, known as polycrisis in the Anthropocene, represent one of the greatest challenges for research across various scientific disciplines. This paper explores polycrisis in the Anthropocene as a critical research agenda for geography, discussing its conceptualization, importance, and possibilities for study from a geographical perspective. The concept of polycrisis has not been adequately addressed in the geographical literature. Geography offers a rich heritage through its various subdisciplines. This paper will discuss how these subdisciplines and other related disciplines could be integrated into the geographical study of polycrisis. This discussion will consider the ontological delineation of polycrisis within the context of geographical research. The main idea of this paper is that an ontologically highly complex and hybrid object of research such as polycrisis provides an opportunity for a shift from the subdisciplinary fragmentation of geography to the application of a postdisciplinary perspective. The main research motivation is to strengthen the social relevance of geography in the context of the quest for global sustainability.
Multiple global crises – including the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukraine – have recently linked together in ways that are significant in scope, devastating in effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars and policymakers characterize the situation as a ‘polycrisis’. Yet this neologism remains poorly defined. We provide the concept with a substantive definition, highlight its value-added in comparison to related concepts, and develop a theoretical framework to explain the causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world's crises. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combine with slow-moving stresses to push a global system out of its established equilibrium and into a volatile and harmful state of disequilibrium. We then identify three causal pathways – common stresses, domino effects, and inter-systemic feedbacks – that can connect multiple global systems to produce synchronized crises. Drawing on current examples, we show that the polycrisis concept is a valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, and opening avenues for future research.
Non-technical summary
The term ‘polycrisis’ appears with growing frequently to capture the interconnections between global crises, but the word lacks substantive content. In this article, we convert it from an empty buzzword into a conceptual framework and research program that enables us to better understand the causal linkages between contemporary crises. We draw upon the intersection of climate change, the covid-19 pandemic, and Russia's war in Ukraine to illustrate these causal interconnections and explore key features of the world's present polycrisis.
Technical summary
Multiple global crises – including the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukraine – have recently linked together in ways that are significant in scope, devastating in effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars and policymakers characterize the situation as a ‘polycrisis’. Yet this neologism remains poorly defined. We provide the concept with a substantive definition, highlight its value-added in comparison to related concepts, and develop a theoretical framework to explain the causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world's crises. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combines with slow-moving stresses to push a global system out of its established equilibrium and into a volatile and harmful state of disequilibrium. We then identify three causal pathways – common stresses, domino effects, and inter-systemic feedbacks – that can connect multiple global systems to produce synchronized crises. Drawing on current examples, we show that the polycrisis concept is a valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, and opening avenues for future research.
Social media summary
No longer a mere buzzword, the ‘polycrisis’ concept highlights causal interactions among crises to help navigate a tumultuous future.
In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2018) found that rapid decarbonization and net negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mid-century are required to “hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C,” as stipulated by the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015, p. 2). Meeting these goals reduces physical climate-related risks from, for example, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, extreme weather, water shortages, declining crop yields, and other impacts. These impacts threaten our economy, security, health, and lives. At the same time, policies to mitigate these harms by rapidly reducing GHG emissions can create transition risks for businesses—for example, stranded assets and loss of market value for fossil fuel producers and firms dependent on fossil energy (Carney, 2019). Rapid decarbonization requires an unprecedented energy transition (IEA, 2021a) driven by and affecting economic players including businesses, asset managers, and investors in all sectors and all countries (Kriegler et al., 2014). However, GHG emissions are not falling rapidly enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement (Holz et al., 2018). The UNFCCC, 2021 found that the emissions reductions pledged by all nations as of early 2021 “fall far short of what is required, demonstrating the need for Parties to further strengthen their mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement” (2021, p. 5). Businesses are faring no better. Despite high-profile calls to action from influential firms such as BlackRock (Fink, 2018, 2021), corporate action to meet climate goals has thus far fallen short (e.g. the Right, 2019 analysis of the German DAX 30 companies' emissions targets by NGO “right.”). Instead of implementing climate strategies that might mitigate the risks, managers are often caught up in “firefighting” and capability traps that erode the resources needed for ambitious climate action (Sterman, 2015). Firms may also exaggerate environmental accomplishments, leading to greenwashing (Lyon and Maxwell, 2011); implement policies that are vague, rely on unproven offsets, or are not climate neutral (e.g. Sterman et al., 2018); or simply take no action at all (Delmas and Burbano, 2011; Sterman, 2015). Adding to the confusion are difficulties evaluating the effectiveness of different climate policies. Misperceptions include wait-and-see approaches (Dutt and Gonzalez, 2012; Sterman, 2008), underestimating time delays and ignoring the unintended consequences of policies (Sterman, 2008), and beliefs in “silver bullet” solutions (Gilbert, 2009; Kriegler et al., 2013; Shackley and Dütschke, 2012). These beliefs arise in part because the climate–energy system is a high-dimensional dynamic system characterized by long time delays, multiple feedback loops, and nonlinearities (Sterman, 2011), while even simple systems are difficult for people to understand (Booth Sweeney and Sterman, 2000; Cronin et al., 2009; Kapmeier et al., 2017). Although senior executives might receive briefings on climate change, simply providing more information does not necessarily lead to more effective action (Pearce et al., 2015; Sterman, 2011). Alternatively, interactive approaches to learning about climate change and policies to mitigate it can trigger climate action (Creutzig and Kapmeier, 2020). Decision-makers require tools and methods grounded in science that enable them to learn for themselves how a low-carbon economy can be achieved and how climate policies condition physical and transition risks. The system dynamics climate–energy simulation En-ROADS (Energy-Rapid Overview and Decision Support; Jones et al., 2019b), codeveloped by the climate think-tank Climate Interactive and the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative, provides such a tool. Here we show how En-ROADS helps HSBC Bank U.S.A., the American subsidiary of U.K.-based multinational financial services company HSBC Holdings plc, focus its global sustainability strategy on activities with higher impact and relevance, communicate and implement the strategy, understand transition risks, and better align the strategy with global climate goals. We show how the versatility and interactivity of En-ROADS increases its reach throughout the organization. Finally, we discuss challenges and lessons learned that may be helpful to other organizations.
Sociopolitical values are an important driver of climate change beliefs, attitudes, and policy preferences. People with “individualist‐hierarchical” values favor individual freedom, competition, and clearly defined social hierarchies, while “communitarian‐egalitarians” value interdependence and equality across gender, age, heritage, and ethnicity. In the US, individualist‐hierarchs generally perceive less risk from climate change and express lower support for actions to mitigate it than communitarian‐egalitarians. Exposure to scientific information does little to change these views. Here, we ask if a widely used experiential simulation, World Climate, can help overcome these barriers. World Climate combines an engaging role‐play with an interactive computer model of the climate system. We examine pre‐ and post‐World Climate survey responses from 2,080 participants in the US and use a general linear mixed model approach to analyze interactions among participants' sociopolitical values and gains in climate change knowledge, affect, and intent to take action. As expected, prior to the simulation, participants holding individualist‐hierarchical values had lower levels of climate change knowledge, felt less urgency, and expressed lower intent to act than those holding communitarian‐egalitarian values. However, individualist‐hierarchs made significantly larger gains across all constructs, particularly urgency, than communitarian‐egalitarians. Participants' sociopolitical values also shifted: those with individualistic‐hierarchical values before the simulation showed a substantial, statistically significant shift toward a communitarian‐egalitarian worldview. Simulation‐based experiences like World Climate may help reduce polarization and build consensus towards science‐based climate action.
In the 1972 bestseller Limits to Growth (LtG), the authors concluded that, if global society kept pursuing economic growth, it would experience a decline in food production, industrial output, and ultimately population, within this century. The LtG authors used a system dynamics model to study interactions between global variables, varying model assumptions to generate different scenarios. Previous empirical‐data comparisons since then by Turner showed closest alignment with a scenario that ended in collapse. This research constitutes a data update to LtG, by examining to what extent empirical data aligned with four LtG scenarios spanning a range of technological, resource, and societal assumptions. The research benefited from improved data availability since the previous updates and included a scenario and two variables that had not been part of previous comparisons. The two scenarios aligning most closely with observed data indicate a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth as humanity's goal in the twenty‐first century. Both scenarios also indicate subsequent declines in these variables, but only one—where declines are caused by pollution—depicts a collapse. The scenario that aligned most closely in earlier comparisons was not amongst the two closest aligning scenarios in this research. The scenario with the smallest declines aligned least with empirical data; however, absolute differences were often not yet large. The four scenarios diverge significantly more after 2020, suggesting that the window to align with this last scenario is closing.
Abstract The opioid epidemic in the United States has had a devastating impact on millions of people as well as on their families and communities. The increased prevalence of opioid misuse, use disorder and overdose in recent years has highlighted the need for improved public health approaches for reducing the tremendous harms of this illness. In this paper, we explain and call for the need for more systems science approaches, which can uncover the complexities of the opioid crisis, and help evaluate, analyse and forecast the effectiveness of ongoing and new policy interventions. Similar to how a stream of systems science research helped policy development in infectious diseases and obesity, more systems science research is needed in opioids.
This paper discusses our experience in using system dynamics to facilitate resilience planning for food security in rural communities that are exposed to ever‐increasing climatic pressures in Guatemala. The social–ecological systems literature is rich in examples where policies to enhance resilience are deduced from factors generally accepted to be present in resilient systems (e.g. redundancy, connectivity and polycentrism). This deductive approach risks being overly simplistic. As an alternative, this paper explores how insights from analysing the structure–behaviour relationship of complex dynamic systems can be used to generate tailored policies. The results show that stability in food systems is mainly driven by key strategic resources that moderate the effects of environmental changes on food availability and affordability. Moreover, our experience highlights the importance of analysing mechanisms that determine a system's behaviour while and after the system is affected by a disturbance to formulate effective resilience policies.
© 2020 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society
Public confusion about the urgency of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions results from a basic misconception.
Importance
Given the high number of opioid overdose deaths in the US and the complex epidemiology of opioid use disorder (OUD), systems models can serve as a tool to identify opportunities for public health interventions.
Objective
To estimate the projected 3-year association between public health interventions and opioid overdose-related outcomes among persons with OUD.
Design, Setting, and Participants
This decision analytical model used a simulation model of the estimated US population aged 12 years and older with OUD that was developed and analyzed between January 2019 and December 2023. The model was parameterized and calibrated using 2019 to 2020 data and used to estimate the relative change in outcomes associated with simulated public health interventions implemented between 2021 and 2023.
Main Outcomes and Measures
Projected OUD and medications for OUD (MOUD) prevalence in 2023 and number of nonfatal and fatal opioid-involved overdoses among persons with OUD between 2021 and 2023.
Results
In a baseline scenario assuming parameters calibrated using 2019 to 2020 data remained constant, the model projected more than 16 million persons with OUD not receiving MOUD treatment and nearly 1.7 million persons receiving MOUD treatment in 2023. Additionally, the model projected over 5 million nonfatal and over 145 000 fatal opioid-involved overdoses among persons with OUD between 2021 and 2023. When simulating combinations of interventions that involved reducing overdose rates by 50%, the model projected decreases of up to 35.2% in nonfatal and 36.6% in fatal opioid-involved overdoses among persons with OUD. Interventions specific to persons with OUD not currently receiving MOUD treatment demonstrated the greatest reduction in numbers of nonfatal and fatal overdoses. Combinations of interventions that increased MOUD initiation and decreased OUD recurrence were projected to reduce OUD prevalence by up to 23.4%, increase MOUD prevalence by up to 137.1%, and reduce nonfatal and fatal opioid-involved overdoses among persons with OUD by 6.7% and 3.5%, respectively.
Conclusions and Relevance
In this decision analytical model study of persons with OUD, findings suggested that expansion of evidence-based interventions that directly reduce the risk of overdose fatality among persons with OUD, such as through harm reduction efforts, could engender the highest reductions in fatal overdoses in the short-term. Interventions aimed at increasing MOUD initiation and retention of persons in treatment projected considerable improvement in MOUD and OUD prevalence but could require a longer time horizon for substantial reductions in opioid-involved overdoses.
What are the root causes of mass violence terrorism? Examining this question led to a novel hypothesis that violent radicalization leading to terrorism operates as a system of social contagion. A terror contagion exploits existing grievances and moral outrage well suited for radicalizing within a high‐risk population. After a terrorist incident, media broadcasts of cultural scripts convey both a template violent ideology and a template method for mass violence. Radicalization can result when high‐risk people receive these cultural scripts sharing self‐similarity and notoriety bias to the perpetrator and their template ideology of grievance and outrage. Following the template method results in subsequent completed terror incidents creating their own media broadcasts, perpetuating the contagion. In this article, we share our methods, findings, and discuss the implications of a terror‐contagion hypothesis. We describe experiments and testable predictions to build confidence in the terror‐contagion hypothesis and our progress in them. © 2023 System Dynamics Society.
The COVID-19 pandemic poses fundamental challenges to the ways that the discipline of International Relations makes sense of our world. Framing the pandemic as both a social disaster and as part of an ongoing polycrisis, this work argues that existing responses to COVID-19 are, whatever their insights, partial and limited, predicated on assumptions about how we know the world now shown to be problematic. This situation calls less for some defined incremental change and more for a period of uncomfortable disciplinary reflection on the boundaries, purposes and value structures that shape IR.
Jay W. Forrester's original statement of the foundations of system dynamics emphasized four ‘threads’: computing technology, computer simulation, strategic decision making, and the role of feedback in complex systems. Subsequent work has expanded on these to expose the significance in the system dynamics approach of dynamic thinking, stock-and-flow thinking, operational thinking, and so on. But the foundation of systems thinking and system dynamics lies deeper than these and is often implicit or even ignored: it is the “endogenous point of view”. The paper begins with historical background, clarifies the endogenous point of view, illustrates with examples, and argues that the endogenous point of view is the sine qua non of systems approaches. What expert systems teachers and practitioners have to offer their students and the world is a set of tools, habits of thought, and skills enabling the discovery and understanding of endogenous sources of complex system behavior. Copyright © 2011 System Dynamics Society.
Welcome to the world of the polycrisis
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Are there limits to economic growth? It's time to call time on a 50-year argument
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