Article

The comparative politics of just transition policies: building green-red winning coalitions in Spain and Ireland

Taylor & Francis
Journal of European Public Policy
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Abstract

Just transition policies can be useful measures to address the new social risks of industrial decarbonization. However, while these policies are growing empirically, they remain arguably undertheorized. Navigating a largely unexplored field, this article aims to strengthen our understanding of just transition policymaking with a theory-generating ambition. It does so by asking: what explains the adoption of just transition policies? Following a Most Different Systems Design, Spain and Ireland have been selected as comparative case studies to reconstruct the political trajectories behind national just transition policies. Drawing from coalition theories, empirical analysis maps the preferences of and interactions between political parties and organised interest groups. The article relies on outcome-explaining process tracing and qualitative methods, including the analysis of policy and press documents, and thirty-nine semi-structured interviews with policymakers and other informants. The core argument is that just transition policies emerge as the result of green-red winning coalitions steered by powerful entrepreneurs, who engage in political exchanges with other socio-political actors in order to trade political support for decarbonisation, in exchange for economic support to affected societal groups.

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Across Europe, contemporary negotiated reforms of economic and social policy are increasingly characterized by a logic of information rather than a logic of exchange. Unlike in neo-corporatist bargaining over incomes policies, states negotiate with the social partners not primarily to secure their acquiescence, but instead to enlist their active assistance in designing and mobilizing support for substantial reforms of public policy. State policy-makers lack the combination of technical, relational, and local information necessary to design successful blueprints for reform, and so they are dependent on the social partners to acquire this information. In systems in which unions and employers' associations can exercise dialogic capacity, policy innovation is more likely to come from the propositions of the social partners than from political parties or bureaucrats. Using this logic, the article undertakes a pairwise comparison of episodes of negotiated reform: pensions in France and Italy, and vocational training in France and Germany.
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This article discusses recent research on party politics and the welfare state that differs from traditional ‘partisan politics theory’. The traditional approach states that left-wing and right-wing parties hold contrasting positions on welfare issues, depending on the interests of their respective electorates. This view has recently been challenged by three strands of research, which emphasize (1) the effects of electoral change on parties’ policy positions, (2) the role of context, notably electoral institutions, party competition and the configuration of party systems, and (3) the impact of different linkages between parties and electorates (particularistic versus programmatic). The implications of these arguments for the applicability of partisan theory are presented, and theoretical and empirical issues are identified for further research.