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Estimating the tipping point for lithium iron phosphate batteries
... These components operate through a lithium-ion intercalation process, where lithium ions migrate between the anode and cathode to store or discharge energy. The choice of battery chemistry significantly influences energy density, lifespan, cost, and sustainability [49][50][51]. ...
... The demand for critical materials in electric vehicles (EVs) is not exclusively driven by EV battery production; rather, a diverse range of industries and applications significantly influence the availability and pricing of these essential resources. It is imperative to recognize the broader industrial landscape in which these materials are utilized, as sectoral interdependencies play a crucial role in shaping global supply chains [49][50][51]. While EV batteries serve as a primary driver of lithium demand, their influence on the demand for other materials, such as cobalt, graphite, and nickel, is comparatively less pronounced. ...
Electric vehicles (EVs) are essential to the global energy transition, but their growing adoption increases demand for critical battery materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite. This article examines the composition and chemistry of EV batteries, highlighting advancements in energy density and material efficiency through solid-state, LFP, and sodium-ion batteries. While battery manufacturing capacity is set to triple by 2030, challenges such as geopolitical dependencies, environmental concerns, and supply chain vulnerabilities persist. Opportunities for sustainable material sourcing include responsible mining, recycling initiatives, and diversification of supply chains. Policymakers play a vital role in ensuring a stable and ethical EV battery supply, with recommendations focusing on accelerating R&D, enhancing circular economy efforts, and improving regulatory frameworks. A holistic approach integrating technological innovation, policy intervention, and industry collaboration is crucial to securing a sustainable and resilient EV battery ecosystem for the future.
... While a reference S2P of 1.7 kWh batt /kW p was assumed, sensitivity analyses were nevertheless conducted to assess the variability linked to the S2P parameter. A lithium iron phosphate ion battery storage system was selected over alternative lithium-ion chemistries, due to its relatively long cycle life, good thermal stability, and low cost, that suit stationary applications despite a comparatively lower gravimetric energy density [45,46]. A summary of the main cost assumptions associated with the PV-BESS system are reported in Table 6. ...
New tailpipe emissions standards aim to increase electric vehicle (EV) sales in the United States. Here, we analyze the associated critical mineral supply chain constraints and enumerate the climate consequences of these constraints. Our work yields five findings. First, the proposed standard necessitates replacing at least 10.21 million new internal combustion engine vehicles with EVs between 2027 and 2032. Second, based on economically viable and geologically available mineral reserves, manufacturing sufficient EVs is plausible and reduces up to 457.3 million tons of CO2e. Third, mineral production capacities in the United States and amongst allies support the deployment of 5.09 million vehicles between 2027 and 2032, well short of compliance target. Fourth, this shortfall produces at least 59.54 million tons of CO2e in lost lifecycle emissions benefits. Fifth, limited production of battery-grade graphite and cobalt may represent particularly profound constraints. Pathways that afford comparable emission reductions are subsequently explored.
Electric vehicle sales have been growing rapidly in the United States and around the world. This study explores the drivers of demand for electric vehicles, examining whether this trend is primarily a result of technology improvements or changes in consumer preferences for the technology over time. We conduct a discrete choice experiment of new vehicle consumers in the United States, weighted to be representative of the population. Results suggest that improved technology has been the stronger force. Estimates of consumer willingness to pay for vehicle attributes show that when consumers compare a gasoline vehicle to its battery electric vehicle (BEV) counterpart, the improved operating cost, acceleration, and fast-charging capabilities of today's BEVs mostly or entirely compensate for their perceived disadvantages, particularly for longer-range BEVs. Moreover, forecasted improvements of BEV range and price suggest that consumer valuation of many BEVs is expected to equal or exceed their gasoline counterparts by 2030. A suggestive market-wide simulation extrapolation indicates that if every gasoline vehicle had a BEV option in 2030, the majority of new car and near-majority of new sport-utility vehicle choice shares could be electric in that year due to projected technology improvements alone.
Electric vehicle batteries contain many internationally sourced critical minerals. Seeking a stable mineral supply, the US Inflation Reduction Act sets a market-value-based target for battery critical mineral content. In 2027, for an electric vehicle to be tax-credit eligible, 80% of the market value of critical minerals in its battery must be sourced domestically or from US free-trade partners. We determined that the target may be achievable for fully electric vehicles with nickel cobalt aluminium cathode batteries, but achieving the target with lithium iron phosphate and nickel cobalt manganese batteries would be challenging. We also note that a mass-based target could avoid some of the challenges posed by a market-value target, such as volatile market prices. We further conclude that the approach the Act has taken ignores the environmental effects of mining, non-critical minerals supply, support for recycling and definitions that avoid gamesmanship.
Lithium-ion batteries are the ubiquitous energy storage device of choice in portable electronics and more recently, in electric vehicles. However, there are numerous lithium-ion battery chemistries and in particular, several cathode materials that have been commercialized over the last two decades, each with their own unique features and characteristics. In 2021, Tesla Inc. announced that it would change the cell chemistry used in its mass-market electric vehicles (EVs) from Lithium-Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum-Oxide (NCA) to cells with Lithium-Iron-Phosphate (LFP) cathodes. Several other automakers have followed this trend by announcing their own plans to move their EV production to LFP. One of the reasons stated for this transition was to address issues with the nickel and cobalt supply chains. In this paper, we examine the trend of adopting LFP for mass-market electric vehicles, explore alternative reasons behind this transition, and analyze the effects this change will have on consumers.
Procurement incentives are a widely leveraged policy lever to stimulate electric vehicle (EV) sales. However, their effectiveness in reducing transportation emissions depends on the behavioural characteristics of EV adopters. When an EV is used, under what conditions and by whom dictates whether or not these vehicles can deliver emissions reductions. Here, we document that replacing gasoline powered vehicles with EVs may—depending on behavioural characteristics—increase, not decrease, emissions. We further show that counterfactual vehicle inventory—how many vehicles a household would own absent an EV purchase—is an important influencer of these effects. We conclude that achieving emissions reductions using EVs requires redesigning procurement incentive programmes in a manner that (re)distributes incentives towards the second-hand EV market. Doing so would not only facilitate emissions reductions but also address fiscal prudency and regressivity concerns associated with these programmes.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have emerged as a promising alternative to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles due to benefits in improved fuel economy, lower operating cost, and reduced emission. BEVs use electric motors rather than fossil fuels for propulsion and typically store electric energy in lithium-ion cells. With rising concerns over fossil fuel depletion and the impact of ICE vehicles on the climate, electric mobility is widely considered as the future of sustainable transportation. BEVs promise to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions as a result of the transportation sector. However, mass adoption of BEVs faces major barriers due to consumer worries over several important battery-related issues, such as limited range, long charging time, lack of charging stations, and high initial cost. Existing solutions to overcome these barriers, such as building more charging stations, increasing battery capacity, and stationary vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) charging, often suffer from prohibitive investment costs, incompatibility to existing BEVs, or long travel delays. In this paper, we propose Peer-to-Peer Car Charging (P2C2), a scalable approach for charging BEVs that alleviates the need for elaborate charging infrastructure. The central idea is to enable BEVs to share charge among each other while in motion through coordination with a cloud-based control system. To re-vitalize a BEV fleet, which is continuously in motion, we introduce Mobile Charging Stations (MoCS), which are high-battery-capacity vehicles used to replenish the overall charge in a vehicle network. Unlike existing V2V charging solutions, the charge sharing in P2C2 takes place while the BEVs are in-motion, which aims at minimizing travel time loss. To reduce BEV-to-BEV contact time without increasing manufacturing costs, we propose to use multiple batteries of varying sizes and charge transfer rates. The faster but smaller batteries are used for charge transfer between vehicles, while the slower but larger ones are used for prolonged charge storage. We have designed the overall P2C2 framework and formalized the decision-making process of the cloud-based control system. We have evaluated the effectiveness of P2C2 using a well-characterized simulation platform and observed dramatic improvement in BEV mobility. Additionally, through statistical analysis, we show that a significant reduction in carbon emission is also possible if MoCS can be powered by renewable energy sources.
For the market share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to continue to grow and reach 100% of new vehicle sales, adopters of the technology, who initially buy PEVs, will need to continue choosing them in subsequent purchases. Although much research has focused on the reasons for, and barriers to, initial PEV purchase, less has been devoted to the reasons for discontinuance—abandoning a new technology after first purchasing it. Here, on the basis of results from five questionnaire surveys, we find that PEV discontinuance in California occurs at a rate of 20% for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle owners and 18% for battery electric vehicle owners. We show that discontinuance is related to dissatisfaction with the convenience of charging, having other vehicles in the household that are less efficient, not having level 2 (240-volt) charging at home, having fewer household vehicles and not being male.
The world is shifting to electric vehicles to mitigate climate change. Here, we quantify the future demand for key battery materials, considering potential electric vehicle fleet and battery chemistry developments as well as second-use and recycling of electric vehicle batteries. We find that in a lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide dominated battery scenario , demand is estimated to increase by factors of 18-20 for lithium, 17-19 for cobalt, 28-31 for nickel, and 15-20 for most other materials from 2020 to 2050, requiring a drastic expansion of lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply chains and likely additional resource discovery. However, uncertainties are large. Key factors are the development of the electric vehicles fleet and battery capacity requirements per vehicle. If other battery chemistries were used at large scale, e.g. lithium iron phosphate or novel lithium-sulphur or lithium-air batteries, the demand for cobalt and nickel would be substantially smaller. Closed-loop recycling plays a minor, but increasingly important role for reducing primary material demand until 2050, however, advances in recycling are necessary to economically recover battery-grade materials from end-of-life batteries. Second-use of electric vehicles batteries further delays recycling potentials.
Non-uniform metal deposition and dendrite formation in high-density energy storage devices reduces the efficiency, safety and life of batteries with metal anodes. Superconcentrated ionic-liquid electrolytes (for example 1:1 ionic liquid:alkali ion) coupled with anode preconditioning at more negative potentials can completely mitigate these issues, and therefore revolutionize high-density energy storage devices. However, the mechanisms by which very high salt concentration and preconditioning potential enable uniform metal deposition and prevent dendrite formation at the metal anode during cycling are poorly understood, and therefore not optimized. Here, we use atomic force microscopy and molecular dynamics simulations to unravel the influence of these factors on the interface chemistry in a sodium electrolyte, demonstrating how a molten-salt-like structure at the electrode surface results in dendrite-free metal cycling at higher rates. Such a structure will support the formation of a more favourable solid electrolyte interphase, accepted as being a critical factor in stable battery cycling. This new understanding will enable engineering of efficient anode electrodes by tuning the interfacial nanostructure via salt concentration and high-voltage preconditioning. Non-uniform metal deposition and dendrite formation reduce the efficiency, safety and life of batteries with metal anodes. The influence of these factors in a sodium electrolyte now shows how a molten-salt-like structure at the electrode surface results in dendrite-free metal cycling at higher rates.
This study investigated scaling trends of commercially available light-duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) ranging from model year 2011 to 2018. The motivation of this study is to characterize the status of BEV technology with respect to BEV performance parameters to better understand the limitations and potentials of BEV. The raw data was extracted from three main sources: INL (Idaho National Laboratory) website, EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) Fuel Economy website, and the websites BEV manufacturers and internet in general. Excellent scaling trends were found between the EPA driving range per full charge of a battery and the battery capacity normalized by vehicle weight. In addition, a relatively strong correlation was found between EPA city fuel economy and vehicle curb weight, while a weak correlation was found between EPA highway fuel economy and vehicle curb weight. An inverse power correlation was found between 0–60 mph acceleration time and peak power output from battery divided by vehicle curb weight for 10 BEVs investigated at INL. Tests done on the environmentally controlled chamber chassis dynamometer at INL show that fuel economy drops by 19 ± 5% for the summer driving condition with air conditioner on and 47 ± 7% for the winter driving condition.
The sustainability of cobalt is an important emerging issue because this critical base metal is an essential component of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. More than half of the world’s cobalt mine production comes from the Katanga Copperbelt in DR Congo, with a substantial proportion (estimated at 15–20%) being extracted by artisanal miners. Here we show, in a case study performed in the town of Kolwezi, that people living in a neighbourhood that had been transformed into an artisanal cobalt mine had much higher levels of cobalt in their urine and blood than people living in a nearby control area. The differences were most pronounced for children, in whom we also found evidence of exposure-related oxidative DNA damage. It was already known that industrial mining and processing of metals has led to severe environmental pollution in the region. This field study provides novel and robust empirical evidence that the artisanal extraction of cobalt that prevails in the DR Congo may cause toxic harm to vulnerable communities. This strengthens the conclusion that the currently existing cobalt supply chain is not sustainable. © 2018, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
Each type of vehicle has specific power requirements. Some require a rapid charging, other make long distances between charges, but a common feature is the longest battery life time. Additionally, the battery is influenced by factors such as temperature, depth of discharge and the operation current. The article contain the parameters of chemical cells that should be taken into account during the design of the battery for a specific application. This is particularly important because the batteries are not properly matched and can wear prematurely and cause an additional costs. The method of selecting the correct cell type should take previously discussed features and operating characteristics of the vehicle into account. The authors present methods of obtaining such characteristics along with their assessment and examples. Also there has been described an example of the battery parameters selection based on design assumptions of the vehicle and the expected performance characteristics. Selecting proper battery operating parameters is important due to its impact on the economic result of investments in electric vehicles. For example, for some Li-Ion technologies, the earlier worn out of batteries in a fleet of cruise boats or buses having estimated lifetime of 10 years is not acceptable, because this will cause substantial financial losses for the owner of the rolling stock. The presented method of choosing the right cell technology in the selected application, can be the basis for making the decision on future battery technical parameters.
This paper uses U.S. nationally representative data from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey to present a series of facts about electric vehicles (EVs) in multi-vehicle households. First, as of the time of the survey, 89% of households with an EV also had a non-electric vehicle in addition to the EV. Second, 60% of households with an EV also had a non-electric SUV, truck, or minivan. Third, 66% of households with an EV also had a non-electric vehicle that was driven more miles per year. The paper argues that these patterns have significant implications for the environmental impact of EVs and underscore the importance of better understanding how multi-vehicle households substitute between vehicles.
Electric vehicles are capturing ever larger market shares of the new vehicle market in several large vehicle markets such as Europe and China. However, electric vehicles still only make up a small fraction of the total vehicle fleet. Much research has been focused on the perspective of existing or prospective adopters of Electric Vehicles. Less emphasis has been placed on intermediaries such as vehicle salespeople, who could be important mediators in the product matching process by providing helpful information, facilitating direct experience and directly influencing vehicle buyers' adoption decisions. This paper addresses this research gap using a qualitative investigation of vehicle salespeople at OEMs who sell both Electric Vehicles and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles on the Swedish market. Fifteen interviews with vehicle salespeople at leading OEMs were conducted in the fall of 2017. The results reveal that the sales process of vehicles is mainly focused on the sales of Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles. Electric Vehicles are treated as niche products which often require the vehicle buyer to initiate the sales process. It can be concluded that OEMs, dealerships and vehicle salespeople have taken relatively few steps to influence mainstream buyers to consider Electric Vehicles as an alternative to Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles at the point of sale. Possible reasons for the bias towards Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles can be found in the apparent lack of training and experience regarding Electric Vehicles among vehicle salespeople, more extended sales and delivery times for Electric Vehicles and a commission structure that often favours Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles.
Since the recent introduction of electric vehicles began in 2008-2010, 80 different electric vehicle models and close to 2 million electric vehicles have been sold in the US. The need to commercialize electric vehicles meant research and policy has so far focused on how to establish the early electric vehicle market. The newness of electric vehicles, their high upfront cost, the need for charging access, and other issues meant equity has been overlooked. As regions progress toward goals of 100% electric vehicle sales, research and policy should consider how to establish a more equitable electric vehicle market so that the benefits of electrification are experienced by all and so that low-income households are not imposed with higher transportation costs.
Next generation solid-state batteries (SSB) will need to leverage high voltage cathodes, as well as metallic anodes to achieve the realistic performance targets necessary to replace liquid electrolyte-based batteries in cutting-edge applications including electric vehicles. However, limitations arising from mass and charge transports, kinetics and chemo-mechanical degradation at the electrode | electrolyte interface limit the performance of present day SSBs. Optimizing composite cathode architecture, which is an integral part of solid-state batteries, is vital to realize the high-energy density and high-performance goals for next-generation solid-state batteries. Cathode architecture needs to be optimized for high loadings of active material, well-percolated ion and electron transport pathways and increased resilience against electrochemical stresses. This paper provides a first report of framework for geometric modelling of composite cathode architectures and evaluates the impact of cathode architecture on cell-level energy density using hierarchical models. Packing around primary and secondary active material particles are simulated for a range of active material particle size and solid electrolyte size distributions in the composite cathode. Impact of packing architecture on processing parameters of a given cathode composition and thickness, as well as on achievable energy density is evaluated for a range of commonly used solid electrolyte and cathode materials. Overall, the proposed framework offers a facile exploratory methodology for establishing initial metrics for scalable processing of practical and competent SSBs.
The emissions reductions from the adoption of a new transportation technology depend on the emissions from the new technology relative to those from the displaced technology. We evaluate the emissions reductions from electric vehicles (EVs) by identifying which vehicles would have been purchased had EVs not been available. We do so by estimating a random coefficients discrete choice model of new vehicle demand and simulating counterfactual sales with EVs no longer subsidized or removed from the new vehicle market. Our results suggest that vehicles that EVs replace are relatively fuel-efficient: EVs replace gasoline vehicles with an average fuel economy of 4.2 mpg above the fleet-wide average and 12 percent of them replace hybrid vehicles. This implies that ignoring the non-random replacement of gasoline vehicles would result in overestimating emissions benefits of EVs by 39 percent. Federal income tax credits resulted in a 29 percent increase in EV sales, but 70 percent of the credits were obtained by households that would have bought an EV without the credits. By simulating alternative subsidy designs, we find that a subsidy designed to provide greater incentives to low-income households would have been more cost effective and less regressive.
Jie Deng is a research engineer in the Department of Electrification Subsystems and Power Supply at Ford Motor Company. He has extensive experience in computer-aided engineering analysis (structural, fluid, and thermal), battery simulations, and material characterization. He got his PhD in Mechanical Engineering from Florida State University and has published over 30 papers. His current research mainly focuses on battery array design and multi-physics modeling and testing of battery behaviors under various abuse conditions.
Chulheung Bae is a high-voltage battery systems group supervisor at Ford Motor Company, where his research activities focus on lithium ion battery system development and validation for automotive applications. Dr. Bae has over 22 years of experience in advanced battery materials and various energy storage devices, including Lithium Ion, NiZn, Lead-Acid and redox flow batteries, and ultra-Capacitors. Dr. Bae has a Doctorate in Chemical Engineering from University of Manchester in the UK.
Adam Denlinger is manager of high-voltage systems research and development at Ford Motor Company. Adam’s team is responsible for delivering high-voltage battery system innovations—including packaging, durability, thermal, management and controls, and EMC—as well as human-centered technologies targeting an enhanced electrified vehicle ownership experience. The team also leads multiple collaborations in this field with industry, university, and national lab partners. Adam has worked with Ford for 22 years, with experience delivering powertrain technologies, including Ford’s first Ecoboost engine application, industry-first hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicle fleet, and multiple high-voltage battery systems for battery electric (BEV) and plug-in electric (PHEV) vehicles.
Ted Miller is manager of electrification subsystems and power supply research. His team is responsible for Ford global electrification subsystem and power supply research, delivering battery system design innovations in advanced cell technology, packaging, thermal, EDS, EMC, charging, power conversion, and energy management and modeling. They provide subject matter expertise from raw materials to end-of-life recycling. The team also leads collaboration with university, industrial, and National Lab partners. Mr. Miller is chairman of the United States Advanced Battery Consortium and a member of the Idaho National Laboratory Strategic Advisory Committee and the University of Michigan Energy Institute External Advisory Board.
Plug-in electric vehicles (PEV), comprising both battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs), are innovations central to the low-carbon mobility transition. Despite this, there has not been a review of users’ experiences of them. We address this through this systematic review. Of 6492 references located from diverse sources, we synthesised and thematically organised findings from 75. We found a wide range of themes relating to user experiences, characterised broadly under: driving and travel behaviours; interactions with the vehicle; and subjective aspects of the user experience. Most of the evidence pertained to BEVs. Specific findings were as follows. The limited electric range of the BEV was not debilitating and users valued the limited electric-only range in PHEVs. In terms of journey-making, BEVs can fit into users’ lives. Regarding interactions with specific vehicle attributes, regenerative braking and low noise were very popularly received, although the in-vehicle instrumentation not universally so. Users freely offered wide-ranging improvements for future vehicles. There were important symbolic and social aspects of user experience. Themes relating to the former included environmentalism, futurism, and status/identity; to the latter, social influence and gender-distinct experiences. Overall, we qualifiedly conclude that PEVs can play an effective role in the transition: they can meet users’ travel needs satisfactorily, thereby being 'acceptable' to them, and are used at least as intensively as conventionally-fuelled vehicles, implying effective substitution away from more energy-intensive vehicle mileage.
Wide deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) would greatly facilitate global de-carbonization, but achieving the emission targets depends on future battery prices. Conventional learning curves for manufacturing costs, used in many battery projections, unrealistically predict battery prices will fall below 124/kWh by 2030 – much cheaper than today, but still too expensive to truly compete with ICEVs, due primarily to the high prices of cobalt, nickel, and lithium. Our results suggest that stabilizing raw materials prices and/or stimulating R&D activities on alternative battery chemistries will be important to achieve environmentally sustainable EV-based ground transportation at an attractive price.
Sustained growth in lithium-ion battery (LIB) demand within the transportation sector (and the electricity sector) motivates detailed investigations of whether future raw materials supply will reconcile with resulting material requirements for these batteries. We track the metal content associated with compounds used in LIBs. We find that most of the key constituents, including manganese, nickel, and natural graphite, have sufficient supply to meet the anticipated increase in demand for LIBs. There may be challenges in rapidly scaling the use of materials associated with lithium and cobalt in the short term. Due to long battery lifetimes and multiple end uses, recycling is unlikely to provide significant short-term supply. There are risks associated with the geopolitical concentrations of these elements, particularly for cobalt. The lessons revealed in this work can be relevant to other industries in which the rapid growth of a materials-dependent technology disrupts the global supply of those materials.
The extractable ores of the world's geologically scarcest mineral resources (e.g. antimony, molybdenum and zinc) may be exhausted within several decades to a century, if their extraction continues to increase. This paper explores the likelihood that these scarce mineral resources can be conserved in time for future generations without intervening but instead simply relying on the price mechanism of the free market system. First we discuss the role of geological scarcity in the long-term price development of mineral resources. Then, to see whether geological scarcity affects the price of minerals we compare the historical trends in the prices of geologically scarce mineral resources with those of geologically more abundant mineral resources. The results show that in the period 1900–2013 the price mechanism did not result in high prices that provide advance warning of exhaustion of minerals. We therefore argue that if conservation is left to market forces, it is not certain that geologically scarce minerals will be timely, automatically, and sufficiently conserved for future generations. We recommend preparing international policy measures targeted at a price increase of the scarcest mineral resources, in order to accelerate substitution and recycling of these materials and help save the geologically scarcest mineral resources for future generations.
The suitability of an electric vehicle of a given range to serve in place of a given conventional vehicle is not limited by the daily travel over distances within that that range, but rather by the occasional inconvenience of finding alternative transport for longer trips. While the frequency of this inconvenience can be computed from usage data, the willingness of individual users to accept that replacement depends on details of available transportation alternatives and their willingness to use them. The latter can be difficult to assess. Fortunately, 65% of US households have access to the most convenient alternative possible: a second car. In this paper we describe an analysis of prospective EV acceptance and travel electrification in two-car households in the Puget Sound region. We find that EVs with 60 miles of useful range could be acceptable (i.e. incur inconvenience no more than three days each year) to nearly 90% of two-car households and electrify nearly 55% of travel in those households (32% of all travel). This compares to 120 miles range required to achieve the same fraction of electrified travel via one-for-one replacement of individual vehicles. Even though only one third of personal vehicles in the US may be replaced in this paradigm, the ‘EV as a second-car’ concept is attractive in that a significant fraction of travel can be electrified by vehicles with modest electric range and virtually no dependence on public charging infrastructure.
Standard analysis of intellectual property focuses on the balance between incentives for research and the welfare costs of restraining output through monopoly pricing. We present evidence from the pharmaceutical industry that output often fails to rise after patent expirations. Patents restrict output by allowing monopoly pricing but may also boost output and welfare by improving incentives for marketing, a form of nonprice competition. We analyze how nonprice factors such as marketing mitigate and even offset the costs of monopoly associated with intellectual property. Empirical analysis of pharmaceutical patents suggests that, in the short run, patent expirations reduce output and consumer welfare by decreasing marketing. In the long run, patent expirations benefit consumers, but by 30 percent less than would be implied by the reduction in price alone. Focusing only on the pricing issues of intellectual property may lead to incomplete or even inaccurate conclusions for welfare.
One full year of high-resolution driving data from 484 instrumented gasoline vehicles in the US is used to analyze daily driving patterns, and from those infer the range requirements of electric vehicles (EVs). We conservatively assume that EV drivers would not change their current gasoline-fueled driving patterns and that they would charge only once daily, typically at home overnight. Next, the market is segmented into those drivers for whom a limited-range vehicle would meet every day’s range need, and those who could meet their daily range need only if they make adaptations on some days. Adaptations, for example, could mean they have to either recharge during the day, borrow a liquid-fueled vehicle, or save some errands for the subsequent day. From this analysis, with the stated assumptions, we infer the potential market share for limited-range vehicles. For example, we find that 9% of the vehicles in the sample never exceeded 100 miles in one day, and 21% never exceeded 150 miles in one day. These drivers presumably could substitute a limited-range vehicle, like electric vehicles now on the market, for their current gasoline vehicle without any adaptation in their driving at all. For drivers who are willing to make adaptations on 2 days a year, the same 100 mile range EV would meet the needs of 17% of drivers, and if they are willing to adapt every other month (six times a year), it would work for 32% of drivers. Thus, it appears that even modest electric vehicles with today’s limited battery range, if marketed correctly to segments with appropriate driving behavior, comprise a large enough market for substantial vehicle sales. An additional analysis examines driving versus parking by time of day. On the average weekday at 5 pm, only 15% of the vehicles in the sample are on the road; at no time during the year are fewer than 75% of vehicles parked. Also, because the return trip home is widely spread in time, even if all cars plug in and begin charging immediately when they arrive home and park, the increased demand on the electric system is less problematic than prior analyses have suggested.Research highlights► Nine percent of vehicles never exceed 100 miles driving in one day. ► Travel adaptation 2 days/year makes 100 mile EVs substitutable for 17% of drivers. ► Correlation of vehicle frequency of use to distance travelled when used is weak. ► In the worst 1-h span of rush-hour, <4% of the vehicle fleet parks.
We estimate the effect of tax rebates offered by Canadian Provinces on the sales of hybrid electric vehicles. We find that these rebates led to a large increase in the market share of hybrid vehicles. In particular, we estimate that 26% of the hybrid vehicles sold during the rebate programs can be attributed to the rebate, and that intermediate cars, intermediate SUVs and some high performance compact cars were crowded out as a result. However, this implies that the rebate programs also subsidized many consumers who would have bought either hybrid vehicles or other fuel-efficient vehicles in any case. Consequently, the average cost of reducing carbon emissions from these programs is estimated to be $195 per tonne.
BEV Battle 3: Will the dragon awaken? Part 3: XPeng P7 – The China threat
- Langan
LFP-powered 2023 ford mustang Mach-e vs. outgoing SR battery version
- Kane
Electric vehicles are shattering the barrier to adoption that could matter Most
- Mims
The final BEV Battle: Is LFP the lifeline? The last round: BYD Han
- Langan
Ford F-150 lightning loses about a quarter of its range when carrying maximum payload
- Hawkins
FOTW #1221, January 17, 2022: Model Year 2021 All-Electric Vehicles Had a Median Driving Range about 60% That of Gasoline Powered Vehicles
- Vehicle Technologies Office
2023 Tesla Model S Review
- Cantu
Buying a Tesla? Now You Can Choose an LFP or NCA Battery Pack
- Morris
AAA study: What’s the real range of electric vehicles?
- Dodds
2023 Mercedes-Benz E-class review
- Cameron Rodgers
- Nick Yekikian
Energy Prices and Electric Vehicle Adoption
- James Bushnell
Ford’s New LFP Batteries Will Only Be Fitted to Standard Range EVs
- Chilton
Why do so many US drivers want at least 300 miles of range before considering the purchase of an electric vehicle?
- McDonald