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State Aid in Reconstruction of Natural and Other Disasters’ Consequences Using the Budget Funds of the Republic of Serbia
... Terrorism continues to represent one of the gravest and most persistent challenges to state security [35][36][37]. Its adaptive and multifaceted nature requires constant innova-tion in detection strategies and response mechanisms [38]. ...
This study investigates and forecasts multidimensional security perceptions among Serbian university students, who are a particularly engaged and vulnerable demographic in transitional societies. It examines how demographic traits, socio-economic status, and levels of institutional trust and engagement shape students’ evaluations of security in everyday life. The study examines six primary dimensions of security perception: personal safety, safety at public events and demonstrations, perceived national threats, digital security and privacy, perception of emergencies and crises, and trust in institutions and security policies. A structured online survey was administered to a sample of 406 university students selected through non-probability purposive sampling from major academic centres in Serbia, including Belgrade, Niš, Novi Sad, and Kragujevac. The questionnaire, based on a five-point Likert scale, was designed to measure levels of agreement across the six dimensions. Data were analysed using multiple regression, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and independent samples t-tests. All necessary statistical assumptions were met, ensuring the reliability and validity of the results. Descriptive statistics indicated moderate to moderately high overall perceived safety, with personal safety scoring the highest, followed by digital security and disaster preparedness. Lower scores were recorded for public event safety, perceived national threats, and, in particular, trust in institutional security policies. Regression analysis revealed that key predictors of perceived safety varied across dimensions: gender was a significant predictor of personal safety. At the same time, family financial status had a strong influence on perceptions of safety at public events. These findings offer valuable insights for designing targeted risk communication, inclusive policy initiatives, and institutional reforms that aim to enhance youth resilience, civic trust, and participatory security governance, ultimately contributing to long-term social sustainability.
... Terrorism continues to represent one of the gravest and most persistent challenges to state security [75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87]. Its adaptive and multifaceted nature requires constant innovation in detection strategies and response mechanisms [79]. ...
This research investigates and forecasts multidimensional security perceptions among Serbian youth, explicitly focusing on the student population. It examines how demographic traits, socioeconomic status, and institutional trust and engagement levels affect how young people evaluate different aspects of security in their everyday lives. The study covers six primary dimensions of security perception: a) personal safety; b) safety at public events and demonstrations; c) perceived national threats; d) digital security and privacy; e) perception of emergencies and crises; and f) trust in institutions and security policies. A structured survey, involving 406 participants, titled “Multidimensional Security Perceptions Among Youth in Serbia”, was created to collect insights into modern security issues. The questionnaire employed a five-point Likert scale, where 1 represented “strongly disagree” and 5 signified “strongly agree." Analyses included multiple regression analysis, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and independent samples t-tests. All necessary statistical assumptions were validated to ensure the reliability and validity of the results. Descriptive statistics indicated that participants experienced moderate to moderately high perceived safety (overall M = 3.42). The personal safety domain scored the highest (M = 3.89), followed by digital security and privacy (M = 3.55) and disaster preparedness (M = 3.47). In contrast, lower perceived safety levels were noted for public events and demonstrations (M = 3.22), the perception of national threats (M = 3.07), and trust in institutional security policies, which had the lowest mean score (M = 2.93). The results showed strong links between perceived safety and factors like trust in institutions, how often individuals follow security news, and previous experiences with emergencies. Regression analysis showed that factors influencing perceived safety differed across various dimensions. Gender played a significant role in shaping personal safety perceptions, while family financial status emerged as a crucial predictor for feelings of safety at public events. Engaging in safety-related activities was linked to lower perceptions of digital security, and regularly consulting safety information sources strongly predicted both preparedness and trust in institutions. This study offers fresh perspectives on how personal traits and systemic structures influence youth security experiences. The results can guide upcoming policy initiatives, risk communication methods, and institutional changes designed to bolster youth resilience and involvement in the security sector.
As emergencies and disasters continue to strain public health systems globally, integrating psychosocial support into national response frameworks has emerged as a critical, though often overlooked, priority. This study examines the role of the Red Cross of Serbia in delivering Psychoscial First Aid (PFA), highlighting it as a vital yet underrepresented component within the broader scope of emergency response. Grounded in a theoretical framework, the paper outlines the core principles of PFA, its significance during crises, and the psychosocial impact of disasters on individuals and communities. It further explores the relationship between mental health and community resilience, underscoring the importance of mental recovery in disaster contexts. Utilising a qualitative approach, the study draws on an expert interview with a representative of the Red Cross of Serbia to investigate the current state of PFA implementation. Particular attention is given to institutional integration, training protocols, and prevailing public perceptions of psychosocial support. The findings point to a marked disparity between the established provision of medical first aid and the marginal position of psychosocial assistance. Key barriers identified include insufficient institutional acknowledgment, a lack of structured and standardised training programs, and limited awareness of PFA as a distinct and necessary intervention. Despite these challenges, the Red Cross of Serbia has initiated several promising efforts—such as developing educational materials, training volunteers, and establishing internal support mechanisms—which provide a solid foundation for future advancement. This paper argues for systematically including psychosocial support in emergency management strategies. It emphasises the need for coordinated, evidence-informed, and person-centered approaches to fostering health and resilience in disaster-affected communities.
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of flash flood susceptibility in the Kratovska Reka catchment area of Northeastern North Macedonia, integrating Geographic Information System, remote sensing, and field survey data. Key factors influencing flash flood dynamics, including Slope, Lithology, Land use, and Vegetation index, were investigated to develop the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI). Mapping slope variation using a 5-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) revealed higher slopes in eastern tributaries compared to western counterparts. Lithological units were classified based on susceptibility to erosion processes, with clastic sediments identified as most prone to flash floods. Land use analysis highlighted non-irrigated agricultural surfaces and areas with sparse vegetation as highly susceptible. Integration of these factors into the FFPI model provided insights into flash flood susceptibility, with results indicating a medium risk across the catchment. The average value of the FFPI is 1.9, considering that the values range from 1 to 5. Also, terrains susceptible to flash floods were found to be 49.34%, classified as medium risk. Field survey data validated the model, revealing a significant overlap between hotspot areas for flash floods and high-risk regions identified by the FFPI. An average FFPI coefficient was calculated for each tributary (sub-catchment) of the Kratovska Reka. According to the model, Latišnica had the highest average coefficient of susceptibility to potential flash floods, with a value of 2.16. These findings offer valuable insights for spatial planning and flood risk management, with implications for both local and national-scale applications. Future research directions include incorporating machine learning techniques to enhance modeling accuracy and reduce subjectivity in assigning weighting factors.
This research investigates the alignment of soft power and institutional skills in Montenegro's journey towards accession to the European Union (EU), with a particular focus on the environmental sector. An online survey targeting individuals employed in state institutions directly engaged in negotiation processes, notably the Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism and the Agency for Nature and Environmental Protection, was conducted. The research conducted an online survey, distributed before and after the summer recess to accommodate the transition of power following parliamentary elections, aimed at assessing the effectiveness of current personnel and identifying areas for improvement in staffing and negotiation strategies within Montenegro's environmental sector. Employing diverse methodologies, the survey's analysis delved into the demographic, social, and professional backgrounds of respondents. It explored their roles within institutions, involvement in environmental negotiations, and possession of relevant skills and expertise. Furthermore, respondents' knowledge of environmental issues, legislation, and challenges facing the country was assessed to gauge institutional capacity for environmental governance. Demographic data, including gender, age, education and regional origin, were collected to understand gender-specific attitudes and regional disparities in environmental perspectives. The sample of 84 individuals, comprising executives and employees from both institutions, provided insights into the age structure and regional diversity of personnel involved in negotiation tasks for Chapter 27. The selection of the Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism and the Agency for Nature and Environmental Protection reflects their pivotal roles in shaping Montenegro's environmental policies and addressing climate change challenges. This study aims to illuminate the dynamics of environmental governance within Montenegro's state administration, contributing to the country's path towards EU accession. The research findings highlight the critical need for Montenegro to prioritize strategic initiatives in personnel management, skill development, and institutional capacity-building within its environmental sector. The implications of this research extend beyond academia to inform policymaking and societal action, emphasizing the urgency for Montenegro to bolster its environmental sector capabilities, fostering both EU alignment and sustainable governance practices for the benefit of present and future generations.
Integrated disaster risk reduction in schools represents a key component of safety strategies within the educational sector of every country. The aim of this study is to comprehensively explore the impact of various demographic and socio-economic factors on the perceptions of students and teachers regarding disaster risk reduction and safety in schools. This study is distinguished by its extensive empirical approach, employing a multistage random sampling method to conduct 850 face-to-face interviews (650 with students and 200 with teachers) throughout 2023 in 10 out of the total 18 municipalities in the Western Morava Basin of the Republic of Serbia. Two structured survey instruments were developed, incorporating a mix of qualitative (closed-ended) multiple-choice questions and five-point Likert scales. The research proposes two central hypotheses regarding school-based disaster risk reduction. Firstly, it suggests that gender, age, parent’s employment, academic achievement, living situation, parental education levels, and engagement with social media collectively influence students’ perspectives on this matter (H1–H8). Secondly, it posits that gender, age, marital status, parenthood, and educational background significantly impact teachers’ viewpoints on school-based disaster risk reduction (H1–H5). Multivariate linear regression was used to explore predictors of students’ and teachers’ insights on school-based disaster risk reduction. Various statistical tests, including Chi-square, t-tests, one-way ANOVA, and Pearson’s correlation, were employed to investigate the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on these insights. The results of multivariate regression analyses indicate that age, gender, and marital status emerge as the primary predictors across various facets of students’ and teachers’ insights on school-based disaster risk reduction, including awareness of disasters, disaster education activities, attitudes toward disaster risk reduction education, and enhancement of disaster information accessibility. The findings of this study provide comprehensive insights into the key factors influencing students’ and teachers’ perceptions of disaster risk reduction in schools. This research not only contributes to the academic discourse on disaster education but also serves as a foundational basis for improving educational programs, developing policies and strategies, refining normative educational frameworks, guiding teacher training, and informing further research in disaster education.
A scientific monograph offers a comprehensive examination of crisis and disaster management policy in Serbia. Leveraging rich scientific research experience in the field of disaster studies, the authors critically assess the merits and demerits of various levels of crisis and disaster management. Crafted to address the subject matter, objectives, and methodologies employed, the monograph stands as a multidimensional, multimethod work primarily of a qualitative nature. Rooted in a qualitative approach, it scrutinizes the concept of crisis and disaster management policy across 23 cities in Serbia. Beyond enriching understanding in the intricate realm of crisis and disaster management policy at the local level, its aim extends to furnishing recommendations concerning necessary methodological and organizational shifts in the operations of local governance and decision-making bodies, legal frameworks and protocols, security strategies, decision-making processes, coordination efforts, collaborative initiatives, communication strategies, public engagement practices, educational endeavors, and information dissemination channels.
In terms of the societal justification for the research, derived from empirical findings, specific conclusions and proposals have been drawn regarding the efficacy, transparency, and deficiencies in the implementation of crisis management policy concepts within Serbian cities. Concrete recommendations and proposals are presented to enhance the qualitative aspects of the concept in areas where shortcomings or inadequacies are identified. The societal justification for this research primarily lies in augmenting the capacities of local self-governments to enhance preparedness, cope with, and overcome crises and disasters, fortify safety cultures, and foster the development of "resilient local communities."
Within the initial portion of the scientific monograph, the authors scrutinize and elaborate on five thematic units, each classified into corresponding chapters. The opening (first) chapter explores crises and disasters as political constructs. Delving into the concepts of crisis and disaster, the discussion navigates through theoretical distinctions among related phenomena such as disasters, emergencies, risks, accidents, and crises. Special emphasis is placed on examining the characteristics of disasters and emergencies, with reference to typologies such as classical, modern, and combined.
In the second chapter of the scientific monograph, the authors delve into theoretical concepts surrounding crisis and disaster management. They explore themes such as strategic management and leadership during crises and disasters, crisis management, emergency management, and related concepts. The chapter also examines the characteristics of crisis and disaster management, models of management processes during crises and disasters, crisis and disaster management within public administration, and organizational approaches to crisis and disaster management.
Moving on to the third chapter, the authors undertake a comprehensive examination of crisis and disaster management policy. Within this section, they scrutinize various issues pertaining to crisis and disaster identification, decision-making in crisis and disaster situations, interpretation of crises and disasters within the realm of political communications, risk communication regarding crises and disasters, resolution strategies for crises and disasters, as well as the assignment of blame and responsibilities. The chapter also highlights the potential for organizational learning and the implementation of reforms induced by crises and disasters.
The fourth chapter of the scientific monograph focuses on community resilience in crisis and disaster situations. Here, the authors outline the characteristics of resilient communities, with particular emphasis on urban safety and the criteria for designating cities as safe. Additionally, citizen responses to crises and disasters are examined within this context.
In the fifth chapter, the authors explore crisis and disaster management practices within the European Union and European countries, along with the institutional framework for such management within the EU. Special attention is given to the analysis and description of crisis and disaster management systems across European nations.
In the second part of the scientific monograph, a detailed methodological framework for the conducted research is presented. This includes discussions on research subjects, objectives, and tasks, as well as the hypothetical research framework, scientific and social justifications, sources and types of data, and methodologies for data collection and processing, alongside an overview of key indicators.
The third part of the scientific monograph comprehensively describes the analytical dimensions of the conducted research results. The first chapter of this section explores the cultural and historical dimensions of crisis and disaster management policy in Serbia, examining administrative-territorial frameworks, central and local levels of management and administrative structures, responsibilities and regulatory frameworks, legal reforms, and degrees of regulatory governance.
In the second chapter of the third part, the authors delve into the dimensions of crisis and disaster management as public policies, discussing the socio-economic context of crisis and disaster management in Serbian cities. They explore strategic frameworks, the development of strategic and institutional frameworks for security and crisis management at the local level, intersectoral collaboration, operational frameworks for disaster management, institutional frameworks, financing, coordination between agencies, supervision, evaluation of public policies, and resource monitoring.
In the third chapter, the exploration extends to partnerships and collaborative efforts in crisis and disaster management processes within Serbian municipalities. This encompasses the intricate dynamics between the state, local self-governance, and citizens concerning crisis management policies in Serbia. It further delves into the expectations that local self-governments hold towards citizens and vice versa, particularly regarding the safeguarding of their interests. Additionally, the chapter scrutinizes the typologies of crises and their perceptual reality among citizens in Serbia, as well as the identified risks delineated in national and local strategic documents. Furthermore, it examines scenarios in crisis and disaster management where volunteer engagement is integral, assessing the readiness level of citizens for such involvement within local communities. Moreover, the chapter explores collaborative initiatives with neighboring municipalities, ongoing projects concerning crisis management within Serbian local self-governments, and the scope and nature of regional or international cooperation pertaining to crisis and disaster management at the local level in Serbia.
Concluding with the fourth chapter, attention shifts towards the realm of information dissemination and educational endeavors concerning crises and disasters within Serbian municipalities. This includes the specialized training programs tailored for mayoral officials in navigating crisis and disaster scenarios effectively. Moreover, it encompasses the intricacies of crisis communication strategies deployed at the local level and the pivotal role of informative and educational initiatives as integral components of proactive crisis management strategies within local communities. Conclusion: The main objectives of this study were to critically analyze the existing concept of crisis and disaster management in Serbian cities, through the analysis of the existing state and interrelationships of examined phenomena (cultural-historical aspects, crisis management as public policy, partnerships, cooperation, education, and information) in the policy of crisis management. The research was multidimensional and multimethodological. The list of research questions was expanded during the study to include two additional questions. The first question related to the dilemma of whether local self-governments, especially Serbian cities, have fulfilled their responsibilities in crisis and disaster management in accordance with the principles of good governance. The second question concerned the manner and extent of decentralization of crisis and disaster management in relation to the existing monotypic type of local self-government. Data collected were analyzed using qualitative and quantitative approaches, through interviews, questionnaires, document analysis, and field observation. A literature review briefly outlined the historical context of crisis management development, crisis as a political construct, and crisis management policy. The review also addressed organizational crisis, resilient communities, with a brief overview of the institutional framework of crisis management in the European Union and the practices of European countries, including Serbia.
Specific research hypotheses anticipated and demonstrated deficiencies in the legal, operational, institutional, and strategic frameworks in crisis management policies, with a particular focus on the lack of prevention, indicating that the style of crisis management at the local level is predominantly reactive. It was also shown that voluntary citizen engagement in emergencies is not adequately normatively regulated or operationally standardized. Lastly, it was demonstrated that actors at the local self-government level have not undergone sufficient training and education in crisis management. The findings of the research align with the key deficiencies identified in the National Strategy for Protection and Rescue in Disasters (2011), which relate to institutional-organizational, material-technical, cooperation, coordination, and information availability deficiencies, as well as the lack of human resources and education. Seven years after the adoption of the Strategy and nine years after the adoption of the Law and the establishment of a unified system of crisis and disaster management, it can be said that the listed clusters of problems are still present at the local level. Public policies in Serbia since 2000 largely operate on the principles and rules of new public management, which represent a restrictive factor in implementing crisis management policies in some segments (relocating institutions from less populated, border areas to regional centers (schools, healthcare institutions, courts - so-called institutional optimization; lowest price in public procurement as the decisive criterion - e.g., pumps that failed shortly after installation during the 2014 crisis, etc.). Following the example and practice of the EU, since 2015, Serbia has continued with the reform of local self-government in line with the principles of good governance. Good governance is responsible, open, user-oriented, inclusive, and sensitive to the needs of the local community.
The general results of the study emphasize the political and public policy framework for the creation and implementation of crisis management as one of the public policies under the jurisdiction of local self-governments, with a focus on cities. Crisis management in Serbia generally exhibits characteristics of bureaucratic politics: there are numerous actors, none of whom have a significant influence, decisions are compromises, and their implementation is not efficient.
The results of this research demonstrate that in crisis management in Serbia, the influence of bureaucratic politics on political decision-making at the level of bureaucraticism is significant: there is a big difference between policy creation and implementation, compromises are difficult to achieve, and it is dysfunctional. Before the establishment of a unified system for disasters in 2009, the crisis policy network was fragmented among different policy players/sectors: defense, internal affairs, health, environment, agriculture, forestry, and water management, which, with the adoption of the Law (2009), formed a unified Sector for Emergencies with consolidated competencies within the Ministry of Internal Affairs. After the May floods, another policy player was included in the crisis policy network: the newly established Office for Assistance and Reconstruction of Flooded Areas, which in 2015 grew into the Office for Public Investment Management. The evaluation of the existing legal solution and outcomes in the crisis of 2014 contributed to the approach of first amending and then drafting a new Law, which was not adopted by the beginning of 2018. The Draft Law text was not available until the beginning of the public consultation for experts and the general public. The period from 2014 to 2018 is characterized by bureaucratic inefficiency: much time and resources were lost in achieving consensus on the concept of a new legal solution for crisis and disaster management.
One of the main reasons for the failure to establish the system was the lack of secondary legislation and guidelines for their implementation. By the end of 2017, three secondary acts under the central authority's jurisdiction, which greatly influence the nature of crisis and disaster management—whether preventive and proactive—had not been adopted. Considering these acts regulate segments of crisis and disaster management systems related to the population (equipment and construction of shelters, citizen participation in civil protection units, and the establishment and functioning of observation, early warning, notification, and alert systems), it can be said that crisis and disaster management at the central level does not follow the principles of good governance in terms of accountability and user orientation.
The normative and functional incompleteness and partial non-establishment of the crisis and disaster management system at the central level have also resulted in the system not being significantly established at the local level. Crisis management at the local level is carried out uniformly: all local self-governments have the same type and scope of authority. Differences between cities and municipalities in terms of the level of established authority in normative, institutional, functional, operational, and financial frameworks generally do not exist, except in individual cases, favoring municipalities, which requires further research. Problems are universal, regardless of whether it is a city or a municipality (Kešetović, 2017). The philosophy of financing crisis and disaster management at the local level is almost exclusively reactive. Budget allocations are symbolic, below 1%, with municipalities allocating more than cities.
It is evident that cities differ significantly among themselves in terms of demographic, geographic, health, and socio-economic characteristics, and consequently, the conditions, requirements, and circumstances under which crisis and disaster management is conducted also differ. However, cities are at an advantage over municipalities, among other things, in terms of accessibility to public services for their residents, the existence of institutional capacities, level of development, concentration of economic and political power. Based on Giddens' systemic-strategic approach, it would be logical for cities to have developed strategic, technical and structural, evaluation and diagnostic, communication, psychological, and cultural capacities in crisis management, especially compared to municipalities (which proved to be incorrect). If they seriously apply one strategy from each cluster, they are considered prepared for a crisis. The analysis showed that cities in Serbia are crisis-prone systems, as they do not belong to any of the mentioned clusters of crisis and disaster management, except partially to the technical-structural one (existence of organizational structure and budget positions for emergencies).
Timely detection and preparedness for a crisis largely depend on the perception and experience of decision-makers, cultural patterns, and the way political elites set priorities. The results of this research support the thesis that the concepts of organizational structure and organizational culture are useful for understanding organizational crisis management and crisis management policy in all phases (Deverell, 2010). In this sense, Serbia is a country with a high degree of power distance and is a collectivist society (G. Hofstede): centralization is popular, subordinates expect orders from an ideal boss who is a benevolent autocrat, and rules and regulations are less important than individual loyalty to the group. The perception of crisis preparedness largely depends on an individual's position within the system. Surveyed mayors rated the level of preparedness and implementation of authorities in cities for emergencies, as well as the level of preparedness of city administration, extremely positively. Employees in local self-governments also rated the level of preparedness relatively high: none of the respondents assessed their local self-government as completely unprepared for emergencies.
Data from the Sector for Disasters presents a different, less positive picture. Strategic documents for community safety are not mandatory and do not exist in large numbers, while mandatory preventive documents: risk assessments and protection and rescue plans have been adopted in a worryingly low percentage. Cities' operational responsibilities are partially fulfilled, with an emphasis on formality: establishment of headquarters and accompanying documents. Responsibilities that mean functional establishment of authority and require full political, organizational, and financial commitment and integration of the security concept into the organizational system have not been established. This primarily refers to the functioning and equipping of general-purpose civil protection units, alerting funds, situational centers, education, etc. Oversight of the exercise of emergency authority by local self-governments is not visible in the system. Responsibility practically does not exist, nor do procedures and mechanisms for determining the fulfillment of legally prescribed obligations.
Personal responsibility, legal and criminal, is not practiced; presumed responsibility is primarily political in nature. Cooperation between different levels of government is rated as good, as is coordination. Cooperation with neighboring municipalities during crises is not pronounced (less than half of the surveyed local self-governments indicated that they cooperate), while preventive inter-municipal cooperation is almost symbolic. Cross-border cooperation exists but has significant room for improvement. Awareness of the existence of international funds for project financing is insufficient. Regarding project financing, city representatives are better informed than municipal representatives, but the interest in proposing and implementing projects is generally low. Employees in local self-governments are not additionally motivated to develop projects, as this typically means doing additional work for the same pay. Projects are primarily developed by Local Economic Development Offices (LED Offices) as development organizational units and are implemented by various parts of the local self-government in the area to which the project pertains. Additional motivation for employees in local self-governments to develop and implement projects in the field of crisis and disaster management is necessary.
On the other hand, cooperation and communication between actors at the local level are reduced to formal meetings without substantial insight into the actors' capacities and their risk assessments, and without developed informal contacts among people before a crisis. Databases of resources for crisis and disaster management do not exist as such. Based on conversations with actors at the central level, it is assumed that each institution and subject of protection and rescue at the local level knows what they possess and has some sort of resource database (not necessarily electronic). It is recommended to pay greater attention to establishing standardized, accessible, electronic databases of resources for crisis and disaster management at the local level.
Citizens are not sufficiently involved in planning and formulating crisis and disaster management policies, and the needs of vulnerable groups and the gender perspective are not adequately considered, despite mayors' unanimous opinion that the role of civil society organizations, volunteers, and citizens is very important in emergencies. The comparative perception of decision-makers/mayors, employees in local administrations, and members of the Ministry of Interior's Disasters Sector regarding the examined analytical dimensions indicates a consensus that is only vaguely connected to the needs of the given situation. Thus, the crisis management process at the city level is characterized by bureaucratic-political incompetence. Local self-governments often act as "lightning rods" in the strategy of delegating blame to lower levels of government and prominent representatives, which is one possible explanation for the often drastic differences in opinions between mayors and respondents from local self-governments and the Ministry of Interior on certain issues. Giving socially and politically desirable instead of realistic answers may be a sign of politicians' lack of information, but also a maneuver to avoid the possible role of a scapegoat in the evaluation of a future crisis. Therefore, the perception of performance by mayors and city administration employees serves more for impression management than for insight aimed at improving actual operational performance.
A critical review of crisis events is essential for system improvement. System improvement through learning from crises generally occurs in leaps, from crisis to crisis. For rigid bureaucratic systems to change their routines, the compulsion of an extraordinary event is needed, and the time for changes is limited, usually during or immediately after a crisis. If the "unfreezing" process passes, the likelihood of systemic changes occurring is low. This is precisely what happened with crisis and disaster management at the local level in Serbia. The evaluation of crisis events was conducted in 2014. Local self-governments entered election processes after 2016, when political priorities at the local level were redefined compared to those set immediately after the floods in 2014 and 2016. The promises made, especially those related to prevention in crisis and disaster management and the institutional, operational, and functional full establishment of local self-government capacities for disaster management, were neglected—the "unfreezing" period had passed. Another crucial point is perception. When a crisis does occur, all activities and changes focus on that type of event: after floods, actors predominantly deal with flood response (uniting local self-governments into river basins). Cities in Serbia have partially adopted the behavioral dimension of learning from crises: the institutional structure of city administrations has been partially adapted through job descriptions and the systematization of positions for crisis management.
Functional, financial, strategic, and operational frameworks are not fully established. The cognitive dimension of organizational learning, which consists of mental maps, memories, systems of norms and values, and relates to increasing insight and changing knowledge levels to apply learned lessons in the future, is not sufficiently expressed in cities. This was evident in the perception of crisis preparedness among mayors and representatives of local self-governments (LSGs). Organizational memory, as an integral part of the cognitive dimension of learning within LSGs in a crisis, and its explicit forms such as regulations, manuals, instructions, public policy strategic documents, and databases, is not sufficiently established. The implicit form of organizational memory management in crisis and disasters in cities (norms, beliefs, rituals) has been neglected. Additionally, it has been found that there is no collectively learned lesson by local self-government, the state, or the population related to crisis communication.
The cognitive dimension of learning involves handling information (acquisition, creation, and sharing) as a prerequisite for learning, and the content and exchange of communications, availability of information, and coordination are also weak points in crisis and disaster management in cities. The LSG system has not learned lessons from previous crises. A crisis contains a developmental element, being a transitional state. If the system does not learn lessons from the transitional state—crisis, does not integrate them into institutional memory, and does not move to a qualitatively higher level, it may indicate a lack of development capacity. On the other hand, the absence of responsibility in crisis and disaster management has further impacted the lack of prevention. Another dilemma is whether the absence of responsibility is a double-edged sword for political decision-makers, given that there are no clear legal and procedural mechanisms for evaluating crisis events, leaving them entirely to political blame games. These assumptions are topics for new research.
Regarding whether public administration reform follows the reform of crisis management at the local level, research has concluded that the principles and modern concept of crisis and disaster management and good governance as a new administrative doctrine are compatible: they require accountability; reducing uncertainty in the local community through strategic planning; responsible budgeting; information accessibility; predictability—the principle of legitimate expectations; citizen involvement in the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of crisis and disaster management as public policy with an emphasis on gender perspective, as well as considering the needs of vulnerable groups. After the research was conducted, the conclusion is that the principles of good governance are not significantly applied in crisis management as public policy at the local level, focusing on Serbian cities.
Crisis management at the local level in Serbia is reactive and has not shown the capacity to learn from crises. The policy network is weak, as crisis and disaster management is not on the list of political priorities at the central, and consequently, not at the local level. This is concluded based on policy game outcomes: the existing legal framework is incomplete, and the new law has not yet been passed, although its development started in 2014. Budget allocations are symbolic and insufficient. What is good and encouraging is the establishment of an institutional framework within local self-government for crisis and disaster management, despite the reduction in the number of employees and the increase in LSG responsibilities. Crisis and disaster management tasks have become organizationally visible within the system through job classification and descriptions. Also, the program budget includes activities for disasters, which is a prerequisite for larger allocations for crisis and disaster management, especially concerning prevention. Therefore, it is important to adopt planning documents, which are one of the conditions for budgeting.
Comparing cities and municipalities, the level of their preparedness for emergencies, it was concluded that there are generally no statistically significant differences proving that cities as economic, demographic, political, and administrative centers are more prepared for crises than municipalities, which is the reason for their greater autonomy in crisis and disaster management. Differences exist in some dimensions, but in favor of municipalities, such as reporting and financing. This does not mean that municipalities are better, but that cities have not fully taken on the responsibility and exercised powers in crisis and disaster management in line with the advantages they have. Organizational limitations for crisis management relate to a lack of staff, uneducated staff, financial and technical constraints.
The failure to recognize the importance of prevention in crisis and disaster management by policymakers has been identified as one of the most significant organizational constraints. For the modern concept of crisis and disaster management to take root at the local self-government (LSG) level, employees see the solution in educating, primarily, the policymakers. Cities and municipalities require different forms of assistance in implementing the modern concept of crisis and disaster management and in establishing the responsibilities they have in the field of disasters. Cities need help in the legislative framework, while municipalities need assistance in the educational framework.
All of this suggests that the effective implementation of the crisis management policy concept in cities in Serbia requires continuous strategic, tactical, and operational transformation of the public administration and public management system to strengthen the capacity of local self-governments for prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery from crises, thereby confirming the general hypothesis of the research.
This research has its limitations, primarily due to the broadly set research framework. There is a need for further investigation into the modern concept of crisis management as a reformed public policy at the local level. The presented results can be supplemented and further developed by testing hypotheses and deepening research questions. The next step could be the standardization of questionnaires, the so-called local crisis management index, which would address determining the level of crisis preparedness of local communities. An unresolved issue remains whether cities and municipalities should have the same level of authority in managing crises and disasters. Additionally, further research is needed on how local self-governments respond to organizational crises in relation to the political, institutional, temporal, informational, and complexity dimensions of crises.
In the face of natural disasters, communities are often the first line of defence, bearing the brunt of devastation while also displaying remarkable resilience in their aftermath. The ability of societies to withstand, adapt to, and recover from such crises is a testament to the strength and resourcefulness inherent in human communities. This monograph, titled "Community Disaster Resilience in Serbia," represents a concerted effort to delve into the underlying dynamics that shape a community's capacity to cope with natural disasters. Focusing on Serbia, a country with a rich tapestry of social, economic, and demographic complexities, this research endeavors to unravel the intricate interplay between various socio-economic and demographic factors and community resilience.
The research methodology employed in this study is grounded in a comprehensive quantitative approach, leveraging rigorous statistical analyses to explore the multifaceted dimensions of community disaster resilience. Through the administration of a carefully crafted questionnaire to 321 participants in January 2024, we sought to capture diverse perspectives and experiences, enriching our understanding of the complex socio-economic and demographic landscape of Serbia. At its core, this study recognizes the critical importance of understanding how factors such as income, employment status, marital status, education, risk perception, gender, and age intersect to influence a community's ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters. By shedding light on these nuanced relationships, we aim to equip policymakers, practitioners, and community leaders with evidence-based insights to enhance disaster preparedness and response efforts.
A notable aspect of our methodology is the utilization of the snowball sampling method, which facilitated the organic expansion of our participant pool. By harnessing the networks and connections within communities, we were able to access a diverse array of voices, enriching our dataset and ensuring the robustness of our findings. Central to our inquiry is the exploration of how age, education, and gender intersect with broader social structures, capital, mechanisms, equity, diversity, and beliefs to shape community disaster resilience in Serbia. By elucidating these relationships, we aim to provide insights that can inform targeted interventions and policy initiatives aimed at bolstering community resilience across the country.
This monograph holds significant importance in the field of disaster resilience research and practice for several reasons. Firstly, it fills a crucial gap in the existing literature by providing comprehensive insights into the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on community disaster resilience, particularly within the context of Serbia. While studies on disaster resilience abound, there is a notable scarcity of research specifically examining the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on resilience in this region. Secondly, the findings of this research offer practical implications for policymakers, government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and community leaders involved in disaster management and resilience-building initiatives. By identifying key predictors and factors influencing community resilience, stakeholders can tailor interventions and strategies to address specific vulnerabilities and enhance the capacity of communities to withstand, adapt to, and recover from disasters effectively.
Furthermore, the utilization of robust statistical methods and the comprehensive nature of the research design enhance the reliability and validity of the findings presented in this monograph. The employment of multivariate regression analysis allows for a nuanced understanding of the relationships between various predictors and different dimensions of community disaster resilience, providing valuable insights for both academics and practitioners. Moreover, by employing an adapted version of the ‘5Ssocial resilience framework, this research contributes to the advancement of theoretical frameworks and conceptual models in the field of disaster resilience. The application of such frameworks enables researchers and practitioners to systematically assess and evaluate the complex interplay between social, economic, and environmental factors shaping community resilience, thereby facilitating more informed decision-making and resource allocation.
Overall, this monograph serves as a seminal contribution to the burgeoning field of disaster resilience, offering evidence-based insights and actionable recommendations for enhancing resilience-building efforts in Serbia and beyond. Its significance lies not only in its empirical findings but also in its potential to inform policy development, guide practice, and inspire further research in the pursuit of building more resilient and adaptive communities worldwide.
As we embark on this intellectual journey, we extend our gratitude to all those who have contributed to this endeavor, from the participants who generously shared their insights to the researchers and practitioners whose expertise has guided our inquiry. We hope this monograph will serve as a valuable resource for academics, policymakers, and practitioners alike, fostering dialogue and collaboration in our collective efforts to build more resilient communities in Serbia and beyond.
Conclusion: The resilience of social communities to natural disasters represents an important research area in the field of disaster studies. By enhancing the level of such resilience, the fundamental prerequisites for the safe functioning of society in various unforeseen events are achieved. This scientific monograph delves into the intricate dynamics of community disaster resilience, shedding light on the interplay between demographic and socioeconomic factors. Through a rigorous quantitative study, the research investigates how variables such as age, education, employment status, and property ownership influence the resilience of communities to disasters of varying magnitudes.
Utilizing multivariate regression analysis, the study identifies key predictors across different dimensions of community disaster resilience. It uncovers nuanced insights, revealing the differential impact of demographic and socioeconomic factors on various aspects of resilience. Among the findings, age, education, employment status, and property ownership emerge as significant predictors, shaping the overall resilience profile of communities. The calculated mean value of the community disaster resilience index provides a comprehensive overview, indicating a modest level of resilience across the studied communities. Notably, the analysis highlights variations in resilience across different subscales, with social beliefs garnering the highest ratings and social structure scoring the lowest. This disparity underscores the complex nature of community resilience and the need for targeted interventions to address specific vulnerabilities.
Furthermore, the research offers valuable insights into the prevalence of preventive measures adopted by communities to mitigate disaster risks. Epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms emerge as the most common focus areas for preventive measures, reflecting societal priorities in disaster preparedness. Interestingly, the study also delves into societal perceptions of disaster resilience, revealing divergent attitudes towards different types of hazards. While epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought are perceived to have higher resilience levels, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis are viewed with comparatively lower confidence. This discrepancy in perception underscores the importance of understanding community attitudes and beliefs in shaping disaster resilience strategies.
In essence, this monograph contributes to the growing body of knowledge on community disaster resilience by providing empirical evidence and nuanced insights into the factors influencing resilience levels. By identifying predictors, assessing resilience indices, and exploring societal perceptions, the research informs evidence-based approaches for enhancing community resilience and fostering sustainable disaster risk reduction strategies. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views on response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. High scores in addressing social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but lower ratings for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might want improvement. By adding to our knowledge of Serbian community disaster resilience, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Aside from that, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors.
The identification of key predictors such as age, education, employment, and property ownership provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches in studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities.
Results of the analysis across various dimensions of community resilience to disasters indicate a significant role of age as a predictor of social structure. These findings can be explained by the fact that older individuals, thanks to their previous life experiences, social networks, and spiritual beliefs, contribute to shaping the social structure of the community. Their prolonged exposure to disaster-related events allows them a subtler understanding of social structures and the effectiveness of responses in such situations. Further examinations also suggest a correlation between age and dimensions such as social structure, social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs. Subsequent analysis suggests that older participants have a positive association with higher ratings for social structure, while ratings for social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs, decrease as the age of participants progresses. This trend can be attributed to factors such as accumulated life experiences, historical perspectives, and deeper involvement in communal activities over time.
Concurrently, education emerges as a key predictor for the sub-scale of social capital. Participants with a high school diploma consistently rate higher across dimensions including social structure, social mechanisms, and social justice and diversity compared to those with a university degree. This positive correlation can be attributed to increased social awareness, communication skills, and a broader understanding of community dynamics that come with higher education. Additionally, participants with a university education report higher ratings for social capital, preventive measures, and perception of disaster resilience compared to those with a high school diploma. These individuals with a university education likely experience higher levels of social connectedness, engagement, and support, thus being more inclined towards taking proactive measures and showing greater resilience perception in facing disasters compared to their peers with a high school diploma.
Furthermore, employment has been shown as the most significant predictor for the sub-scales of social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, while property ownership is a key predictor for the sub-scale of social beliefs. Additional analysis reveals associations between employment and various variables, including social structure, social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs. Unemployed participants often give higher ratings regarding social structure, equality/diversity, and beliefs compared to employed participants. This study further demonstrates that individuals who own personal property consistently give lower ratings across various dimensions, including social capital, social beliefs, preventive measures, and resilience to disasters, compared to individuals who own property within family ownership. Detailed analysis reveals that participants with below-average income consistently assign lower ratings across various dimensions. Specifically, compared to those with average income, participants with below-average income give lower ratings for social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, and social beliefs.
Additional analysis reveals that individuals residing in households with two members usually give lower ratings to social structures, while those in households with more than four members tend to give higher ratings to social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs. Furthermore, the research indicates a correlation between marital status and ratings, with single individuals consistently giving higher ratings across different dimensions compared to those who are in a relationship or divorced. This relationship between marital status and various dimensions may indicate that the existence of singles has specific attitudes or behaviors that contribute to a more positive valuation of social capital, preventive measures, and disaster resilience.
The average value of the index measuring community (social) resilience to disasters, calculated on a Likert scale from 1 to 5, is in the lower range of values. This implies that the overall level of resilience to disasters in the community is relatively moderate. The proximity of values to the lower end of the scale suggests potential room for improvement in community resilience to disasters. Further analysis shows that preventive measures are most commonly taken before dangers such as epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The perception of society's resilience is highest against dangers from epidemics, followed by extreme temperatures and drought. Participants express a relatively high level of confidence in society's ability to cope with epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought.
A detailed analysis of all obtained research results indicates that the general hypothesis predicting a statistically significant correlation between socio-economic factors and social resilience to disasters can be confirmed. Based on the defined hypotheses, data analyses show and confirm two specific assertions: a) the influence of sociological factors on the level of social resilience to disasters is confirmed; b) the influence of economic factors on the level of social resilience to disasters is also confirmed. These results direct our understanding of the relationship between different aspects of socio-economic factors and the ability to withstand disasters in society.
On a societal level, the results of this research point to key areas where there is a need to enhance the capacity to resist and overcome the effects of disasters. From a fairness perspective, the focus should be on the older population, as a group that has been shown to be a significant factor in social resilience. Raising awareness and providing resources for the elderly can be crucial in encouraging their active participation in the community and increasing overall social resilience. Tailoring educational campaigns and programs to groups with lower levels of education can also be part of a strategy to increase awareness and preparedness in these population groups. Education about disaster prevention and response measures can significantly impact readiness and information provision, thereby raising the level of social resilience.
The scientific implications of this research can enrich the field of social sciences and disaster studies. These studies can serve as a starting point for more detailed analyses of factors contributing to social resilience. New studies can explore specific aspects of older citizens or individuals with low education, contributing to a better understanding of their role in disaster preparedness and response processes. Ultimately, the applications of the results of this research can be broad and include support for the development of policies, programs, and interventions in the field of disaster management. Scientists and practitioners can use this knowledge to better direct resources and efforts towards building a more resilient and prepared society to face the challenges of disasters.
Authorities and governmental bodies strongly emphasize the importance of residents preparing for natural disasters, particularly underscoring the significance of readiness for geophysical hazards like earthquakes. In this study, which represents comparative quantitative research, the levels and predictors of the impact on preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters in South-Eastern European countries such as Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia are examined. Using the snowball sampling technique (online questionnaire), a survey of 1245 respondents (Montenegro (n = 400), North Macedonia (n = 345), and Serbia (n = 500) was conducted from February 2023 to February 2024. The paper is based on the central hypothesis that the most significant predictor of earthquake preparedness in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia is age, followed by education and gender. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the extent to which five scores of the subscales (household preparedness, community preparedness, disaster preparation, earthquake risk awareness, and reinforced house) were associated with seventh demographic and socio-economic variables. In addition to the mentioned analysis, other statistical analyses such as t-test, one-way ANOVA analysis, and Pearson correlation were also utilized. The results indicate that age emerges as a predictor in various aspects of earthquake-induced disaster preparedness and awareness in most models, followed by education and gender. These findings confirm the significance of respondents’ age in determining levels of preparedness and earthquake awareness. Overall, in North Macedonia, respondents recorded the highest ratings (M = 3.52) for household preparedness for earthquakes, compared to Serbia (M = 3.26) and Montenegro (M = 2.98), where the lower ratings were recorded. Research findings, taking into account cultural characteristics, can serve as a basis for the development of targeted interventions, strategies, policies, and programs aimed at improving the level of societal preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters.
This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions—social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socio-economic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters.
The territory of Serbia is vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The risk is not equal across the entire territory, depending on the type of hazard and the expected potential for damage. So far, the level of community disaster resilience has not been determined in Serbia. There are no scientific preconditions for its improvement to reduce the future material and intangible consequences of disasters. Regarding that, the project’s main objective is to develop and validate a predictive model of community disaster resilience based on social identity influences through an investigation impact of social identity indicators on the level of community disaster resilience in Serbia. The project is based on the upcoming research on whether the level of community disaster resilience can be predicted based on social identity indicators, how social identity indicators affect different dimensions of community disaster resilience, and how disasters shape social identity. The project is based on multimethod research in which quantitative (face-to-face interviews in 40 of the 191 municipalities), and qualitative (semi-structured interviews) research methodology will be applied. A developed predictive model with an index of community disaster resilience in Serbia will empower the creation of preconditions for designing public policies, strategies and procedures for improving resilience and reducing the consequences of disasters on people and their property and enhancing citizens’ security. The project will encourage the prediction of community disaster resilience based on social identity indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses. Based on the development of analytical frameworks for understanding community disaster resilience and social identity in disasters, essential preconditions for designing innovative information systems will be created to enable local communities to increase their level of resilience.
In light of increasing extreme events driven by climate change, the relationship between drought and wildfire events and their impacts on society is of paramount importance, necessitating comprehensive studies to understand long-term trends. This manuscript utilizes the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) to gather data on drought and wildfire events, focusing on the number of affected people and human losses. The analysis covers the period from 1983 to 2022 and incorporates eco-hydro-socio-geographical variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), precipitation anomaly, population density, and for-ested area. The study reveals significant geographical disparities in the impacts of drought and wildfire. Asia stands out as the region most affected by these phenomena, with more than 72% of individuals experiencing their effects. In contrast, Europe and Oceania show negligible impacts, accounting for less than 1% collectively. When it comes to losses specifically caused by drought, Asia has the highest share at around 82%. Conversely, Oceania has the lowest share, with less than 0.1% of total losses attributed to drought. In the case of wildfires, Africa takes the lead with 84% of total losses. On the other hand, Oceania, Europe, Asia, and America collectively contribute only 16% to the total losses, which is considerably lower. Temporal analysis indicates an increasing trend in the number of people affected by both drought and wildfire, particularly after the early 2000s, potentially attributed to the improved reporting in EM-DAT. Correlation tests highlight the inverse relationship between GDP and the studied parameters, while precipitation anomaly exhibits an inverse correlation with wildfire-affected populations. Forested area significantly correlates with wildfire-related damages. These insights can inform policies and actions at various levels, from local to international, to address the challenges posed by climate-related disasters.
This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the examination of the levels of efficiency of the fire protection system and the training of employees in Electrical power distribution of Serbia for fire protection, i.e., the analysis of the manner of implementation of fire protection measures, and determining whether these measures are adequately applied. Following the subject set in this way, the aim of the research was set, and that is the scientific analysis of the manner of application of fire protection measures. The results of this research showed that the employees of Elektrodistribucija Beograd (the electrical company of Serbia) perceive the preparedness of their company highly positively and certain socio-demographic characteristics also affect certain attitudes, especially those related to cases with fire, the knowledge of employees to react in cases of fire, and the choice of the appropriate response, assessment of the readiness of the company and the employees themselves. It was found that knowledge of how to react in case of fire is influenced by gender and level of education; the choice of one of the methods of action in case of fire is influenced by gender; the assessment of the readiness of the employees themselves is influenced by the marital status; the desire of employees to participate in training to increase their preparedness for fires is influenced by gender. The results of the research can be used to improve the preparedness of employees in various organizations to respond to disasters caused by fires. Keywords: disaster, fire, preparedness, respond, employee, demographic, socioeconomic, factors.
Human perception of nature and God have always been inextricably linked. In order to understand nature and its inherent processes, including various natural hazards, the reasons for their origin were often attributed to God's will, suffering for sin and the similar. Fear of material and human losses prompted a man to pray and offer sacrifices/gifts and other rituals to appease the "wrath of the gods". The progress of civilization and technology has not alleviated the destruction and trauma that natural disasters inflict on all aspects of social life. A major obstacle to this is the exponential population growth in vulnerable areas. The frequency of natural disasters and the fatalistic attitudes that limit the effective fight against them have motivated religious communities and individuals to cooperate with international and international organizations and institutions to reduce the risk of local disasters. Believers thus receive the necessary psychological and financial assistance and support from religious communities during all phases of disaster management. Therefore, the subject of this paper is a comprehensive examination relationship between the degree of religiosity of the population and how this connection impacts the policy of reducing disaster risk. The aim of the research is to scientifically describe the nature of the relationship between the degree of religiosity of citizens and different segments of disaster risk reduction. Conclusion: The discourse on the constructive as well as the harmful influence of religious beliefs is equally represented in the literature. Despite differing views on the nature of that influence, all agree that religious beliefs govern interpretations of natural hazards in many cultures and societies. During and after natural disasters, people need psychological support and comfort provided by religious institutions. Religious attributes can encourage a positive psychological response and, thus, improve the resilience of an entire society to natural disasters. When facing a disaster, people can seek spiritual support from God, and at the same time rely on resources and support in the social community to which they belong and participate in various group therapies for healing and alleviating the psychological consequences. Therefore, religious institutions contribute especially in the recovery phase, by providing appropriate material and psychological support to the population in the affected areas. The content of the message that religious authorities send to the public in such conditions can be of critical importance, and disaster risk communication must integrate contemporary knowledge about the relationship between religion and risk reduction. Fatalistic beliefs are a special challenge for solving and reducing which it is necessary to engage and unite the efforts of the government, educational institutions, media, and religious leaders. This requires effective cooperation, communication, and coordination at all levels. Although the potential of religious institutions in various stages of disaster management is evident, their role is still largely overshadowed in the literature and in practice.
In addition to the capacity and state of the competent services, the prevention and mitigation of the consequences of disasters largely depend on the perception of the community. Human consciousness, therefore, emerges as a valuable resource in management efforts, particularly in the process of planning and designing programs, strategies, and response plans. It is shaped both by individual factors, such as age, gender, education, disaster experience, marital status, risk perception, and income, and by social factors, such as religious identity. Along with the rejection of ideological understandings about the nature of disasters as the work of God comes a change in the perception of control and responsibility. The then helplessness in the face of an insurmountable fate is replaced by the awareness of the possibility of controlling the consequences, that is, mitigating and minimizing the damage when a natural disaster occurs. In this way, a necessary precondition was created to improve the preparedness of the population, and then the response and recovery from the disaster.
This study opens up new research questions, including examining the various religious factors and dimensions that influence risk perception, preparedness, response, and recovery after a natural disaster. The implications of the research are critical for decision-makers in the Republic of Serbia, who are facing increasing demands to respect people’s attitudes and beliefs that influence their behavior in disaster conditions. In combination with other mechanisms, they can be used to create appropriate strategies at the national level and programs adapted to different categories of the population. In future research, it would be important to investigate the coping strategies in response to disasters and traumatic events used by non-religious individuals versus those used by religious ones. The limitations of the research are reflected in the fact that a larger territorial area and a larger number of inhabitants of the Republic of Serbia were not covered.
Social media informs the public about the most important events and conveys important information. Before, during, and after disasters, social media are used to disseminate information about disasters and collect data relevant to the implementation of preparedness, response, and recovery activities and measures. Social networks are effective in disseminating information and warnings, as well as in educating the public. The subject of the research is examining the influence of demographic factors on the effectiveness of social media in informing the public about the risks of disasters. Using an online survey questionnaire and according to the snowball principle, a survey of 247 respondents was conducted in 2022. The research results show no statistically significant relationship between the respondents’ education level and the assessment of the effectiveness of social media reporting on disasters. Using social media can improve communication between stakeholders in disaster management and facilitate coordination of efforts, fostering communication and allocation of resources. To effectively use social media in disaster management, decision-makers in the disaster management system must be aware of new technologies, their disadvantages and advantages, and ways to collect and analyze data from social networks.
Bangladesh is one the disaster-prone countries in the world and has been suffering from different negative impacts. However, over the years, the coastal communities have developed their resilience capacity. This research as-sessed the local peoples’ resilience against natural disasters at Kazirchar village in Muladi Upazila of Barishal district of the coastal region. In this study, an extensive literature review on disaster resilience, well-structured questionnaire survey, and focus group discussions were conducted to collect primary data. Most of the indicators show low values for socioeconomic resilience. The index value of literacy rate (1.12), primary health care facility (1.25), food consumption (1.30) and income (1.30) showed low disaster resilience. The result from the survey area implies a low level of institutional resilience (1.75). The reason behind low institutional resilience was weak disaster management activities. The index value of training (1.42), school/college (1.92), public awareness programme (2.14), and coordination (1) showed medium to very low of disaster resilience index. Results also showed that the villagers have low physical resilience. From the survey, electricity supply (1.08), dependency on rainfall (1.08), cyclone and flood warning system (2.10), water bodies (1.56) and housing pattern (2.94) were the physical indicators of this village and showed medium to low disaster resilience index. The overall disaster resilience score ranges from 1 to 2.94. Depending on the score, disaster resilience level was divided into five categories from high (3>2.5), medium (2.5>2), low (2>1.5) to very low (1.5>1.0). Based on the resilience index, the overall disaster resilience of Kazirchar village was low because of its low socio- economic (1.67), institutional (1.75), and physical (1.68) resilience values. The findings of this study will help to take necessary actions for building a more disaster-resilient coastal Bangladesh.
Given trends in more frequent and severe natural disaster events, developing effective risk mitigation strategies is crucial to reduce negative economic impacts, due to the limited budget for rehabilitation. To address this need, this study aims to develop a strategic framework for natural disaster risk mitigation, highlighting two different strategic implementation processes (SIPs). SIP-1 is intended to improve the predictability of natural disaster-triggered financial losses using deep learning. To demonstrate SIP-1, SIP-1 explores deep neural networks (DNNs) that learn storm and flood insurance loss ratios associated with selected major indicators and then develops an optimal DNN model. SIP-2 underlines the risk mitigation strategy at the project level, by adopting a cost–benefit analysis method that quantifies the cost effectiveness of disaster prevention projects. In SIP-2, a case study of disaster risk reservoir projects in South Korea was adopted. The validated result of SIP-1 confirmed that the predictability of the developed DNN is more accurate and reliable than a traditional parametric model, while SIP-2 revealed that maintenance projects are economically more beneficial in the long term as the loss amount becomes smaller after 8 years, coupled with the investment in the projects. The proposed framework is unique as it provides a combinational approach to mitigating economic damages caused by natural disasters at both financial loss and project levels. This study is its first kind and will help practitioners quantify the loss from natural disasters, while allowing them to evaluate the cost effectiveness of risk reduction projects through a holistic approach.
This paper presents quantitative research results regarding the influence of demographic factors on the earthquake risk perception of the citizens of Belgrade. This research aims to determine how much the citizens of Belgrade are aware of the risk and prepared to react in the event of an earthquake. The relationship between gender, age, level of education, and facility ownership with risk perception was examined. T-test, One-way ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to examine the relationship between the variables and the earthquake risk perception. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 235 Belgrade respondents during September 2020. The questions were divided into three categories. The first part of the questionnaire was consisted of general questions about the demographic characteristics of the respondents, then the questions that would determine the level of awareness of the respondents about earthquakes, and finally, the questions for determining the respondents' preparedness. The results of the research show that women have a higher perception of risk. It has been proven that the youngest respondents from the age category of 18-30 have the lowest risk perception. The influence of education level in no case showed a statistically significant correlation with risk perception. People’s behaviour in minimizing danger stems from their perception of risk, probability of danger, efficiency, cost of personal precautions, and perception of potential consequences. Misperception of risk can lead to more significant consequences and losses. It is the perception of risk that shapes individuals' behavior before and during danger. Therefore, it is justified and necessary to study the perception of risk and the factors that shape individuals' risk perception.
When reviewing current domestic and foreign literature, different results were observed. Some studies confirmed the influence of certain factors, while other research identified different factors affecting risk perception. It is concluded that various factors can shape the perception of risk, primarily demographic, socio-economic, and psychological factors. This research aimed to examine the perception of risk among citizens of Belgrade from natural disasters caused by earthquakes and the impact of demographic factors on risk perception. Earthquakes occur frequently, but in most cases, they are of low intensity. However, more destructive ones are possible, which can cause significant consequences and high mortality. In 2010, an earthquake in Kraljevo, Serbia, took two lives and caused significant material damage.
The results of the research show that women have a higher perception of risk. It has been proven that the youngest respondents, aged 18-30, have the lowest risk perception. The influence of education levels showed no statistically significant correlation with risk perception. The association of gender with preparedness was confirmed; men were better prepared than women, while no statistically significant association was found between respondents' age and level of education. Given the relatively high percentage of respondents unsure whether their city is at risk from earthquakes and the low levels of respondents' preparedness, it is clear that insufficient attention is paid to educating and informing citizens about natural disasters caused by earthquakes. It is necessary to follow the examples of developed countries that have incorporated disaster education into the education system, such as Japan (Shaw et al., 2004).
The results obtained in this research can serve as guidelines and recommendations for authorities and institutions, which can use them in their educational programs to improve the perception of the risk of natural disasters among citizens. By implementing educational and preventive activities, the consequences of natural disasters can be significantly reduced.
Earthquakes occur over a brief period. Practical efforts to adapt to and cope with earthquakes rely essentially on the extent to which the required knowledge, resources, and competencies are organized in advance and whether they are used quickly and efficiently if the need arises. Understanding how the public perceives earthquake risk is an essential first step in assessing a community’s seismic vulnerability. This information can be crucial for professionals and policymakers to design mitigation strategies, prepare evacuation guidelines, and implement an effective disaster response. The results of this research provide insight into the attitudes and preparedness of the citizens of Belgrade, and given that risk perception plays a crucial role in taking preventive measures, it is imperative to conduct regular risk perception surveys. Few papers in the domestic literature deal with this topic, and given the seriousness of the consequences that earthquakes can cause, it is necessary to conduct regular research to monitor changes in the perception of risks that may occur in the future. Further research into the factors influencing risk perception could recommend effective measures that align with changes in the social environment. Future research should cover a larger part of the territory of the Republic of Serbia and a greater number of respondents.
Starting from the unexplored level of the fire safety of citizens in Serbia, this paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding a fire safety behavior model for residential buildings in Serbia. The research was conducted using a questionnaire that was provided and then collected online for 540 respondents during April 2021. The study’s objective was to determine to what degree education level and gender influence the prediction of the fire safety behavior model (individual preparedness, personal security, fire risk, fire prevention knowledge) for residential buildings in Serbia. The multivariate regression analyses showed that the most important predictor of individual preparedness, personal security, and fire risk perception was gender, followed by age. On the other hand, education level, ownership status, and monthly income did not sig-nificantly affect individual preparedness for fire protection, personal security, fire risk, and pre-vention knowledge. Moreover, the results showed the main reasons for not taking preventive actions are the high cost of the equipment, not being familiar with the exact measures to take, believing that the emergency services would provide them with the necessary assistance, a lack of time, etc. The obtained results can be used to improve the preparedness of citizens to respond in a timely and appropriate manner to fires in residential buildings and create programs and campaigns to improve awareness among the general public.
The objective of this research was to examine the capacity development of local self-governments in the field of disaster risk management (DRM). This quantitative research examines the degree of implementation of strategic, legislative, and institutional frameworks, as well as the capacity of local authorities to apply related policies through five analytical scopes: (1) degree of preparedness and legal framework; (2) financial framework; (3) policy aspects; (4) cooperation and partnership; (5) communication. The ability of municipalities and towns to respond to disasters was also analyzed and compared. In this paper, our initial hypothesis was that the effective implementation of the concept of DRM policy in towns of Serbia requires the continual strategic, tactical, and operational transformation of the public administration and public management system in order to strengthen the capacity of local self-governments for disaster prevention, preparation, response, and recovery. This multi-method research was conducted over the period of 2014–2017 and included the following two target groups: (a) heads of disaster sectors in local self-government units (mayor) and (b) employees of the DRM sector in local self-government units. The results of this research will enable decision makers to successfully respond to challenges and help to improve the capacity of local self-governments and public local administrations within the scope of DRM in the Republic of Serbia, based on the principles of prevention and proactive action, coordination, cooperation, partnership, and responsibility.
Nuclear power remains one of the most accessible choices in addressing environmental and social concerns due to the continuously increasing energy needs around the world. While it remains an excellent source of energy due to its low price and low level of emissions, potential accidents remain a serious problem. An example of such is the most recent accident in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (2011), which reminded the world of the potential risks of nuclear energy and the consequences of which continue to have a lasting effect. There is no nuclear power plant in Serbia, but there are about 15 nuclear power stations scattered within its neighboring countries. Therefore, the Serbian Government decided to study how the Serbian public perceives the risks related to the potential construction of nuclear power stations in the country, nuclear energy in general, and its possible benefits and risks. The objective of this paper is to present the results of this assessment along with a literature overview on the (environmental) risk of nuclear power. A pilot study consisted of a series of 270 randomized face-to-face interviews that took place in the public square of Belgrade in March 2019. Logistic regression was used to examine the cumulative effects of the different risk factors. The results showed that the majority of the respondents are skeptical and do not support the construction of nuclear power stations in Serbia. Furthermore, this research identified several additional important correlations that have a significant impact on the public perception of risk.
This study examined the determinants of residents’ participation in Disaster Risk Management in Lagos, Metropolis, Nigeria. The metropolis was stratified into two clusters (island and mainland areas). Two political wards were randomly selected in each of the six LGAs identified in the two clusters. A total of 5019 buildings were identified in the study area. Using systematic sampling technique,
every 10th residential building was sampled in the selected wards upon which questionnaire was administered. The study established a variation in socioeconomic
attributes of residents as well as awareness of disaster types across the two clusters; it also found out that while majority of the residents were aware of DRM, very few proportions had DRM training. The result of the study also revealed
that age, monthly income, length of residence and educational status can explain residents’ level of participation in DRM. Using regression analysis, the study found out that age, educational status and length of stay with Beta values (.130), (-0.112) and (-0.105) respectively were the determinants of peoples’ participation
in DRM. It recommends that environmentally concerned stakeholders should invest in DRM in areas of awareness and training of residents, establishment,
funding and equipment of DRM agencies.
Abstract
The study aimed to Highlight the role of Al-Shifa Medical Complex administration in evacuation and Sheltering Planning, due to the suffering of the Gaza Strip from repeated attacks by the Israeli occupation, and the escalation of such attacks over the past ten years. The researcher used the content analysis method and Descriptive approach to try to collect all the appropriate data for this topic. The researcher relied on several tools: observation (field visits), personal interviews with stakeholders, risk analysis of the Al-Shifa Medical Complex. The results showed that Quick response in implementing evacuation mechanisms is a critical element in the success of the plan and saving the lives, and showed that planning for evacuations and sheltering is among the priorities of Al-Shifa Complex Administration and the General Administration of Hospitals and that Al-Shifa Complex Administration had prepared a comprehensive evacuation plan and it is developed annually. However, the study found that no maneuver was conducted that simulate activation of the plan for all the working staff in the complex, due to several reasons, and also showed that risk analysis contributes to enhancing preparedness for crisis and disasters, and improving response level to any risk that may occur in future. The study recommends the necessity of forming an internal emergency committee specialized in crisis, disasters, and emergency management and activating it permanently to enhance preparedness level, implementing maneuvers that simulate the evacuation, sheltering, and isolation of major hospitals by standard and modern methods, Developing and strengthening of working staff capabilities in emergency and evacuation management.
Starting from the importance of innovative solutions for improving the needs of different practitioners as flood risk managers, the purpose of this review was to describe analyze, evaluate, and prioritize the various available innovative solutions that have sufficient potential to be useful and used by practitioners. A systematic review of the literature was conducted using the DAREnet knowledge base (an integral feature of the DAREnet online community platform) which identified critical challenges for flood management and the relevant field or source of innovation, as well as the current scientific literature in the field of disaster studies. A fourth stage selection procedure identified candidate original or review papers and evaluated the degree to which papers met predetermined requirements for inclusion extracted from prior systematic reviews. Included in the study were over 100 studies that met the requirements for predetermined inclusion. The findings of this review showed that there is a huge untapped potential for innovative solutions in the field of prevention, preparedness, civil protection, communication, cooperation, etc. The findings of this review contribute to a growing body of knowledge regarding innovative solutions for flood risk management useful for practitioners. Keywords: disasters, floods, risk management, innovative solutions, DAREnet. Conclusion: The results of the research show significant and progressive progress in innovative solutions in the field of flood risk management. It is interesting to mention that a large number of innovative solutions were created by conducting research after flood disasters that caused specific tangible and intangible consequences and also motivated researchers to find an adequate solution. However, in many countries, the available innovative solutions are not implemented quickly enough for various reasons such as lack of money, lack of sufficient motivation, misunderstanding by the general public about the importance of such measures, and unprofessional risk management in such situations. The paper reviews certain and selected innovative solutions, of which there are many more in practice, but due to technical limitations in writing the paper, we were unable to systematize them and give a brief overview. In the future, it is necessary to continue continuous research, develop national knowledge bases that would be nourished by innovative solutions, and improve the exchange of knowledge and experience between developed and underdeveloped countries.
The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society.
In the immediate aftermath of disaster, governments usually act quickly to reduce risk and to recover their communities’ socio-economic functioning. Policy makers in these situations need—but may not have the capacity or time for—substantial analysis and public debate about how to balance short- and long-term societal needs. Inadequate attention to this challenge may result in a deepening of the inequities that increase vulnerability to disaster impacts. We review case examples to illustrate how post-disaster policies may influence the nature, pace, and inclusiveness of community recovery. We then apply a vulnerability/inequity framework to conceptualize how to enhance disaster recovery and avoid perpetuating inequities when weighing the diverse needs of communities across long time horizons.
Taking into account that floods are a very common occurrence in the Republic of Serbia, as well as the fact that they directly endanger the life and health of people, their property and the environment, it is necessary to see into how an individual perceives the risk of a natural disaster caused by a flood. In accordance with what is mentioned earlier, the research on which this paper is based was conducted in the area of several Belgrade municipalities-Palilula, Zemun, New Belgrade, Old Town, Savski venac, Grocka and Čukarica, with a sample of 120 respondents and with the aim of examining the perception of risk among the citizens of Belgrade. The results of the research show that there is a correlation between demographic (gender, age and education), socioeconomic (property ownership and income levels) and psychological (fear and previous experience) factors with risk perception. Based on the results of the research and the knowledge gained, recommendations can be made that the competent authorities , institutions and organizations will be able to use in their educational activities, all with the aim of improving the perception of risk in the population. In this way, conditions are created for the implementation of preventive activities that can significantly reduce the consequences of natural disasters.
Adverse outcomes from 2014 flooding in Serbia indicated problematic response phase management accentuated by a gender imbalance. For this reason, we investigated the risk perceptions and preparedness of women and men regarding these types of events in Serbia. Face-to-face interviews, administered to 2500 participants, were conducted across 19 of 191 municipalities. In light of the current findings, men seemed to be more confident in their abilities to cope with flooding, perceiving greater individual and household preparedness. By contrast, women displayed a deeper understanding of these events. Perhaps owing to a deeper level of understanding, women demonstrated more household-caring attitudes and behaviors and were more prone to report a willingness to help flood victims at reception centers. Emergency management agencies and land planners should account for these differences in gender awareness and preparedness. Based on these findings, doing so may increase citizen participation and shared responsibility under flood hazard scenarios.
Humanity has made remarkable progress during the past two centuries in advancing peace, democracy, human rights, economic development and social equality. The evolution of human relations has progressed far from the time when physical violence, war and conquest were the predominant form of international relations. Diplomacy has evolved from political negotiations at the conference table to mutually beneficial economic exchange and creative cultural integration. But the ideal of peace and human security for all human beings remains elusive, distant and utopian. Violence and insecurity persist and social harmony is threatened by the competition for political supremacy, markets, jobs and scarce resources. Thousands of nuclear weapons remain armed and on alert. Existential ecological threats increase daily. The roots of war and violence remain intact, even if their most horrendous expressions have receded from view. The permanent abolition of war and achievement of human security for all cannot be attained by narrowly conceived political alliances or collective security agreements. The negative concept of peace as the absence of war needs to be replaced by a positive conception of peace as the essential condition for the fullest development of human potential. The narrow concept of security in military and political terms needs to be replaced by an inclusive conception that views security as an emergent property of effective and harmonious social organization founded on the ultimate value of the human being. Peace and security are fundamental attributes of society as a whole. They can only be achieved by a comprehensive, integrated approach that addresses the roots of violence and disharmony in all forms—political, military, economic, social, cultural and ecological. This will require radical democratization of international institutions, establishment of an effective global legal process, abandonment of outmoded conceptions of national sovereignty, regulation of the global casino, recognition of the fundamental right to employment and economic security, and a realization of the essential role that cultural diversity plays in the evolution of the human race. New theory is needed to unify the disparate fields of social science by development of a transdisciplinary, human-centered perspective of society and social evolution. Formulation of a unifying social theory requires a radical shift from reductionist analytic thinking and mechanistic systems thinking to a more organic, integrated form of thinking that views society as a living organism and regards peace and security as emergent properties of harmonious social organization. These objectives can be significantly advanced by establishment of a new type of international center for human security dedicated to combining new thinking on these issues with practical political initiatives for their implementation.
Od nastanka prvobitnih ljudskih zajednica postojali su organizovani pokušaji da se ublaže odnosno smanje posledice vanrednih situacija. Pri tome, obučavanje ljudi u cilju adekvatnog reagovanja ili preživljavanja takvih događaja oduvek je imalo prioritet u društvenoj zajednici. Polazeći od značaja takvih preventivnih aktivnosti, realizovano je istraživanje stanja obučenosti i zainteresovanosti građana za pohađanjem određenih obuka primenom kvantitativne istraživačke tradicije. Interpretacija dobijenih rezultata pokazuje da je poražavajućih 5,6% građana istaklo da je obučeno za reagovanje, dok je sa druge strane jedna trećina, tačnije 34,8% građana zainteresovano za samu obuku. Pri tome, utvrđeno je da na pohađanja obuke statistički značajno utiče pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, obrazovanje oca i majke, roditeljstvo, prethodno iskustvo, percepcija rizika i zaposlenost ispitanika, dok ne utiče bračni status ispitanika. Naime, veći procenat pohađanja obuke zabeležili su muškarci, zaposleni ispitanici, ispitanici sa prethodnim iskustvom i višim prihodima itd. Na originalnost istraživanja upućuje neispitanost stanja i nivoa obučenosti građana Srbije za reagovanje u vanrednim situacijama. Naučni i društveni doprinos istraživanja sastoji se u kreiranju naučnih i praktičnih pretpostavki za uspostavljanje sveobuhvatnog i efikasnog programa obučavanja građana Srbije za reagovanje u vanrednim situacijama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, vanredne situacije, građani, obuka, reagovanje, Srbija. Since the emergence of the original human communities, there have been organized attempts to mitigate or reduce the consequences of emergencies. At the same time, training people to adequately respond to or survive such events has always been a priority in the community. Starting from the importance of such preventive activities, a research of the state of training and interest of citizens in attending certain training was carried out by applying the quantitative research tradition. Interpretation of the obtained results shows that a devastating 5.6% of citizens pointed out that they were trained to react, while on the other hand one third, more precisely 34.8% of citizens are interested in the training itself. In addition, it was found that training attendance is statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, education, education of father and mother, parenthood, previous experience, risk perception, and employment of respondents, while the marital status of respondents does not affect. Namely, a higher percentage of attending the training was recorded by men, employed respondents, respondents with previous experience and higher income, etc. The originality of the research is indicated by the unexamined state and level of training of Serbian citizens for reacting in emergency situations. The scientific and social contribution of the research consists in creating scientific and practical preconditions for the establishment of a comprehensive and efficient program for training the citizens of Serbia to react in emergency situations. Keywords: security, emergency situations, citizens, training, response, Serbia.
Much of the scientific community agrees that global temperature as a result of climate change has increased significantly in the last century, and will continue to grow in the near future. According to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2001 (IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the global mean temperature has increased by about 0.6 degrees in the 20th century, although climate warming was not uniform neither spatially nor temporally, as was indicated by observed changes and modelling studies. Variations in global or regional cases of extreme air temperatures occurred due to changes in climate, cause more and more attention lately as living beings and ecosystems and human society are sensitive to the severity, frequency and persistence of cases of extreme temperatures. In this regard, in order to effectively protect and response to emergencies caused by harmful temperature extremes, it is necessary among other things to investigate comprehensively mentioned natural phenomenon, so that the subject of this paper will be an analysis of climate change as well as form, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of extreme temperatures. Using an international database on natural disasters of the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), based in Brussels, with the support of program for statistical analysis (SPSS) and the method of thematic cartography, we have tried to point out the number, trends, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of extreme temperature in the period from 1900 to 2013, as well as the need for an adequate response of society to this type of natural hazard..
Veliki deo naučne zajednice slaže se da se globalna temperatura kao rezultat klimatskih promena znatno povećala u prošlom veku i nastaviće da raste u bliskoj budućnosti. Prema Trećem izveštaju o proceni IPCC-a, 2001. (IPCC - Međuvladin panel za klimatske promene), globalna srednja temperatura porasla je za oko 0,6 stepeni u 20. veku, iako zagrevanje klime nije bilo jednoobrazno ni prostorno ni vremenski, kao što je naznačeno uočenim promenama i studijama modeliranja. Varijacije u globalnim ili regionalnim slučajevima ekstremnih temperatura vazduha nastale su usled klimatskih promena, koje u poslednje vreme uzrokuju sve više pažnje jer su živa bića i ekosistemi i ljudsko društvo osetljivi na ozbiljnost, učestalost i trajnost slučajeva ekstremnih temperatura. S tim u vezi, radi efikasne zaštite i reagovanja u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim štetnim ekstremnim temperaturama, neophodno je, između ostalog, istražiti sveobuhvatno pomenuti prirodni fenomen, tako da će predmet ovog rada biti analiza klimatskih promena kao i oblika , posledice, vremenska i geoprostorna raspodela ekstremnih temperatura. Koristeći međunarodnu bazu podataka o prirodnim katastrofama Centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) sa sedištem u Briselu, uz podršku programa za statističku analizu (SPSS) i metodu tematske kartografije, pokušali smo da ukažemo na broj, trendovi, posledice, vremenska i geoprostorna raspodela ekstremnih temperatura u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine, kao i potreba za adekvatnim odgovorom društva na ovu vrstu prirodne opasnosti.
In this study alternative understandings of extreme climate events are examined by focussing on the consecutive spring record-breaking temperatures observed in Australia in 2013 and 2014. Aspects of these extremes have previously been investigated scientifically. However, widely held popular perceptions, such as those epitomised by the public statements of recent Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott, refute the outcomes of these scientific analyses. Instead, these posit that new temperature records are purely an artefact of natural variability and the longer the period of observations available, the greater possibility of extreme events. Here, I characterise these understandings as alternative mental models of climate change and extremes, with one informed primarily by personal perceptions (The Natural Variability Concept), and the other (The Probabilistic Change Concept) informed by evidence of the physical climate system (i.e., high-quality observed temperatures and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models). Using these tools, I demonstrate that observed temperature characteristics are irreconcilable with the personal perception-based understanding of extremes as artefacts only of natural climate variability. In addition to showing that the perception-based understanding of climate change and extremes adopted by Abbott (i.e., the Natural Variability Concept) is not fully consistent with the observed time series, I also show that it cannot be internally consistent. The use of these commonly employed statistical properties of temperature time series to examine directly elements of the perception-based conceptualisation of extremes provides insight into the communication of the scientific basis of extreme climate events. I suggest that further quantitative attribution statements are unlikely to explain such extremes more fully than information already available to the public. Directly addressing the misplaced foundational beliefs of the Natural Variability Concept, however, may help accurately communicate aspects of climate extremes more clearly to those open to learning from personal experiences.
The objective of this quantitative study was to examine the impact of selected factors on the level and state of public health capacities in local self-government units in 2021. This survey included 77 out of 145 local self-government units in the Republic of Serbia and examined six dimensions defined by the Law on Public Health. The results of the Pearson correlation showed that there were statistically significant correlations between the effectiveness of the realized program budget and microbiologically defective drinking water samples from the so-called village water supply systems, defective samples of drinking water from public taps, unsatisfactory analyses of wastewater samples, and the number of mandated fines issued. The results of the logistic regression model showed that the local self-government units that received assistance from the Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities were 5.6 times more likely to perform analyses of their health status.
Agricultural droughts affect whole societies, leading to higher food costs, threatened economies, and even famine. In order to mitigate such effects, researchers must first be able to monitor them, and then predict them; however no book currently focuses on accurate monitoring or prediction of these devastating kinds of droughts. To fill this void, the editors of Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought have assembled a team of expert contributors from all continents to make a global study, describing biometeorological models and monitoring methods for agricultural droughts. These models and methods note the relationships between precipitation, soil moisture, and crop yields, using data gathered from conventional and remote sensing techniques. The coverage of the book includes probabilistic models and techniques used in America, Europe and the former USSR, Africa, Asia, and Australia, and it concludes with coverage of climate change and resultant shifts in agricultural productivity, drought early warning systems, and famine mitigation. This will be an essential collection for those who must advise governments or international organizations on the current scope, likelihood, and impact of agricultural droughts. Sponsored by the World Meterological Organization
Describes the use of schema theory to conceptualize how disaster experience can undermine well-being and operational performance and discusses how this approach provides a basis for the development of preparatory strategies for promoting worker wellbeing and response effectiveness. Defines specific characteristics of the disaster experience - disaster stressors. Discusses their role in mediating disaster impact and their potential for facilitating the identification of high risk situations, training needs analysis and disaster simulation design. Also discusses selection, training and operational practices in relation to aspects of the disaster experience that elicit a positive and adaptive response.
Looks at major disasters and the steps taken to limit the problems whichhave and may occur, by an adequate training resource. Looks inparticular at oil-rig disasters such as Piper Alpha, Ekofisk, AleksanderKjelland and Ocean Ranger all of which had contributory shortcomingsenhanced by management on-and off-shore. Reinforces the concepts that anemergency response or contingency plan must provide the basis foremergency training, and that training for the 1990s will be insimulators.