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A cluster randomized trial assessing the effect of a digital health algorithm on quality of care in Tanzania (DYNAMIC study)

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Digital clinical decision support tools have contributed to improved quality of care at primary care level health facilities. However, data from real-world randomized trials are lacking. We conducted a cluster randomized, open-label trial in Tanzania evaluating the use of a digital clinical decision support algorithm (CDSA), enhanced by point-of-care tests, training and mentorship, compared with usual care, among sick children 2 to 59 months old presenting to primary care facilities for an acute illness in Tanzania (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05144763). The primary outcome was the mean proportion of 14 major Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) symptoms and signs assessed by clinicians. Secondary outcomes included antibiotic prescription, counseling provided, and the appropriateness of antimalarial and antibiotic prescriptions. A total of 450 consultations were observed in 9 intervention and 9 control health facilities. The mean proportion of major symptoms and signs assessed in intervention health facilities was 46.4% (range 7.7% to 91.7%) compared to 26.3% (range 0% to 66.7%) in control health facilities, an adjusted difference of 15.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.8% to 25.4%). Only weight, height, and pallor were assessed statistically more often when using the digital CDSA compared to controls. Observed antibiotic prescription was 37.3% in intervention facilities, and 76.4% in control facilities (adjusted risk ratio 0.5; 95% CI 0.4 to 0.7; p<0.001). Appropriate antibiotic prescription was 81.9% in intervention facilities and 51.4% in control facilities (adjusted risk ratio 1.5; 95% CI 1.2 to 1.8; p = 0.003). The implementation of a digital CDSA improved the mean proportion of IMCI symptoms and signs assessed in consultations with sick children, however most symptoms and signs were assessed infrequently. Nonetheless, antibiotics were prescribed less often, and more appropriately. Innovative approaches to overcome barriers related to clinicians’ motivation and work environment are needed.
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
A cluster randomized trial assessing the effect
of a digital health algorithm on quality of care
in Tanzania (DYNAMIC study)
Rainer TanID
1,2,3,4
*, Godfrey Kavishe
5
, Alexandra V. Kulinkina
3,4
, Sabine Renggli
2
,
Lameck B. Luwanda
2
, Chacha Mangu
5
, Geofrey Ashery
2
, Margaret Jorram
2
, Ibrahim
Evans Mtebene
2
, Peter Agrea
5
, Humphrey Mhagama
5
, Kristina Keitel
3,4,6
, Marie-Annick Le
PogamID
1
, Nyanda Ntinginya
5‡
, Honorati Masanja
2‡
, Vale
´rie D’Acremont
1,3,4‡
1Centre for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisante
´), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland,
2Ifakara Health Institute, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania, 3Swiss Tropical and Public Health
Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland, 4University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland, 5National Institute of Medical
Research–Mbeya Medical Research Centre, Mbeya, United Republic of Tanzania, 6Pediatric Emergency
Department, Department of Pediatrics, University Hospital Bern, Bern, Switzerland
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Deceased.
NN, HM and VD also contributed equally to this work.
*rainer.tan@unisante.ch
Abstract
Digital clinical decision support tools have contributed to improved quality of care at primary
care level health facilities. However, data from real-world randomized trials are lacking. We
conducted a cluster randomized, open-label trial in Tanzania evaluating the use of a digital
clinical decision support algorithm (CDSA), enhanced by point-of-care tests, training and men-
torship, compared with usual care, among sick children 2 to 59 months old presenting to pri-
mary care facilities for an acute illness in Tanzania (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05144763). The
primary outcome was the mean proportion of 14 major Integrated Management of Childhood
Illness (IMCI) symptoms and signs assessed by clinicians. Secondary outcomes included
antibiotic prescription, counseling provided, and the appropriateness of antimalarial and antibi-
otic prescriptions. A total of 450 consultations were observed in 9 intervention and 9 control
health facilities. The mean proportion of major symptoms and signs assessed in intervention
health facilities was 46.4% (range 7.7% to 91.7%) compared to 26.3% (range 0% to 66.7%) in
control health facilities, an adjusted difference of 15.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.8% to
25.4%). Only weight, height, and pallor were assessed statistically more often when using the
digital CDSA compared to controls. Observed antibiotic prescription was 37.3% in intervention
facilities, and 76.4% in control facilities (adjusted risk ratio 0.5; 95% CI 0.4 to 0.7; p<0.001).
Appropriate antibiotic prescription was 81.9% in intervention facilities and 51.4% in control
facilities (adjusted risk ratio 1.5; 95% CI 1.2 to 1.8; p = 0.003). The implementation of a digital
CDSA improved the mean proportion of IMCI symptoms and signs assessed in consultations
with sick children, however most symptoms and signs were assessed infrequently. Nonethe-
less, antibiotics were prescribed less often, and more appropriately. Innovative approaches to
overcome barriers related to clinicians’ motivation and work environment are needed.
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OPEN ACCESS
Citation: Tan R, Kavishe G, Kulinkina AV, Renggli
S, Luwanda LB, Mangu C, et al. (2024) A cluster
randomized trial assessing the effect of a digital
health algorithm on quality of care in Tanzania
(DYNAMIC study). PLOS Digit Health 3(12):
e0000694. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.
pdig.0000694
Editor: Shannon Freeman, University of Northern
British Columbia, CANADA
Received: June 25, 2024
Accepted: November 7, 2024
Published: December 23, 2024
Peer Review History: PLOS recognizes the
benefits of transparency in the peer review
process; therefore, we enable the publication of
all of the content of peer review and author
responses alongside final, published articles. The
editorial history of this article is available here:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pdig.0000694
Copyright: ©2024 Tan et al. This is an open access
article distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License, which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in
any medium, provided the original author and
source are credited.
Data Availability Statement: De-identified data can
be found at https://zenodo.org/records/10849644.
Author summary
Digital health tools have been created to help healthcare workers provide better care, but
their real-world impact is still uncertain. This study evaluated the use of ePOCT+, a digital
health clinical decision support algorithm for health providers, combined with point-of-
care diagnostic tools (CRP tests, pulse oximetry), training, and mentorship. The study
compared 9 primary care health facilities using ePOCT+ with 9 facilities providing care as
usual. The study found that using the digital health intervention improved the assessment
of important symptoms and signs in children aged 2 to 59 months with acute illnesses.
However, many symptoms and signs were still not frequently assessed. In addition, antibi-
otic prescriptions were halved in facilities using the tool, and the appropriateness of pre-
scriptions improved significantly. Despite these benefits, challenges related to healthcare
workers’ motivation and work environments must be explored to fully realize the poten-
tial of such tools. These findings suggest that digital health tools can improve the quality
of care and address issues like overprescription of antibiotics. However, broader strategies
are needed to support healthcare workers in delivering comprehensive, high-quality care
in similar settings globally.
Introduction
Millions of preventable deaths are attributed to suboptimal healthcare quality [1]. Factors such
as staff shortages, inadequate budget allocation, poor clinical knowledge, and limited access to
quality medical education, mentorship and supervision collectively contribute to this issue [2
4]. In response to this challenge, and to reduce childhood mortality, the World Health Organi-
zation developed the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) Chartbook [5].
Since its inception, over 100 countries have implemented the guidelines, and IMCI may reduce
mortality and improve quality of care [6,7]. However, poor adherence to IMCI is common,
limiting its benefits [810].
Digital Clinical Decision Support Algorithms (CDSAs) were devised to enhance adherence
to clinical guidelines. These tools, typically operating on electronic tablets or mobile phones,
guide healthcare providers through the consultation process, by prompting the evaluation of
symptoms, signs, and recommended diagnostic tests, to finally propose the appropriate diag-
nosis and treatment [11,12]. While several studies have found that using these digital CDSAs
improve adherence to IMCI, a noteworthy research gap is that many of these investigations
were conducted in controlled study settings, and most lacked randomization [1320].
ePOCT+, a digital CDSA, was developed based on insights from two previous generations
of CDSAs [21,22], specifically addressing challenges by our CDSAs and others, such as limited
scope and information technology difficulties [23]. The present study aimed to assess whether
this CDSA associated with point-of-care tests, training, and mentorship, would improve the
quality of care for sick children compared to usual care, by comparing adherence to IMCI in a
pragmatic cluster randomized trial.
Methods
Study design
The present study is an open-label, parallel-group, cross-sectional cluster randomized trial
within the DYNAMIC Tanzania project. An external clinical researcher observed a sample of
consultations from health facilities from both study arms documenting adherence of
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Funding: This study was supported by a grant
from the Fondation Botnar Switzerland (https://
www.fondationbotnar.org/) grant number 6278 to
V.D.A., and from the Swiss Development
Cooperation (https://www.fdfa.admin.ch/sdc)
project number 7F-10361.01.01 to V.D.A.. The
study sponsor (Centre for Primary Care and Public
Health, Unisante
´, University of Lausanne) led the
study design, the writing of the report and the
decision to submit the article for publication. The
funders of the study had no role in study design,
data collection, data analysis, data interpretation or
writing of the report.
Competing interests: The authors have declared
that no competing interests exist.
healthcare providers to quality-of-care indicators. The study was a planned ancillary study
within a larger cluster randomized trial conducted between 1 December 2021 and 31 October
2022 using a sample of the clusters [24]. A cluster design was chosen since the intervention
was targeted at the health facility and healthcare provider. The trial design and rationale are
outlined in the protocol available in the parent trial registration on ClinicalTrials.gov number
NCT05144763 and in the supplementary materials (S1 File). The detailed statistical analysis
plan for this ancillary study is also available in the supplementary materials (S2 File).
The study design and implementation were collaboratively executed between both Tanza-
nian (Ifakara Health Institute, National Institute for Medical Research—Mbeya Medical
Research Centre) and Swiss (Centre for Primary Care and Public Health [Unisante
´]–Univer-
sity of Lausanne, and Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute) partners. The design was
guided by input from patients, and health providers during the implementation of similar tri-
als in Tanzania [14,22,25]. Over 100 community engagement meetings involving over 7,000
participants were conducted before and during the study. These meetings included discussions
with Community and Regional Health Management Teams in Tanzania.
Participants
The health facility was the unit of randomization since the intervention targeted both the
healthcare provider and health facility. Primary care health facilities (dispensaries or health
centers) were eligible for inclusion if they performed on average 20 or more consultations with
children 2 months to 5 years per week, were government or government-designated health
facilities, and were located less than 150 km from the research institutions. Specific to this
study, consultations were only included if healthcare providers had been trained to use ePOCT
+, and the ePOCT+ tool was functioning on the day of observation (no IT issues related to
power outages, or crashes reported).
In contrast to the larger trial that included children aged 1 day to 14 years, this ancillary
study included only children aged 2 to 59 months old presenting for an acute medical or surgi-
cal condition at participating health facilities. Children presenting solely for scheduled consul-
tations for a chronic disease (e.g. HIV, tuberculosis, malnutrition), for routine preventive care
(e.g. growth monitoring, vaccination), or a follow-up consultation were excluded.
The study was conducted in 5 councils within the Mbeya and Morogoro regions of Tanza-
nia, with two councils being semi-urban and three rural. Malaria prevalence in febrile children
was low in three councils, and moderately high in two. HIV prevalence among children less
than 5 years old in Tanzania is 0.4% [26]. Healthcare for children under 5 years of age is free
for all acute illnesses at government or government-designated primary health facilities,
including the cost of medications [27]. Nurses and clinical officers routinely provide outpa-
tient care in dispensaries, while in health centers medical doctors sometimes provide care as
well. Clinical Officers, the predominant healthcare providers at primary health facilities, are
non-physician health professionals with 2–3 years of clinical training following secondary
school [28].
Interventions
The intervention involved equipping health facilities with ePOCT+, an electronic clinical deci-
sion support algorithm on an Android based tablet (Fig 1), along with associated point-of-care
tests (C-Reactive Protein, Hemoglobin, pulse oximetry), training, and mentorship. ePOCT+
prompts the healthcare provider to answer questions about demographics, symptoms, signs,
and tests [23]. Based on the answers, ePOCT+ proposes one or more diagnoses, treatments,
and management plans including referral recommendation. Healthcare providers had the
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possibility to deviate from ePOCT+ recommendations, and had the option to not use the tool.
In order to move forward within the different sections of the digital tool, it was mandatory to
respond to all IMCI symptoms and signs, except for height and mid-upper arm circumference
(MUAC) which was optional. The tool allowed some signs to be estimated (temperature, respi-
ratory rate) or based on recent measurements (weight). Detailed description on the develop-
ment process and features of ePOCT+ and the medAL-reader application can be found in
separate publications [23,29].
The implementation team provided mentorship to intervention health facilities. This men-
toring consisted of regular visits to health facilities every 2–3 months, and frequent communi-
cation via phone calls or group messages (3–4 times per month) to address issues, offer
guidance, and gather feedback on the new tools. Quality-of-care dashboards were shared
through group messages, enabling healthcare providers to compare their antibiotic prescrip-
tion rates, uptake, and other quality-of-care indicators with other facilities (benchmarking).
Control health facilities continued with usual care, did not have access to clinical data dash-
boards, and only received visits from the implementation team to help resolve issues related to
the electronic case report forms (eCRFs).
Fig 1. Screen-shots of different stages of ePOCT+ running on the medAL-reader application. Stages are shown in
order of appearance, however not all stages are shown in the figure.
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The infrastructure provided to all health facilities (control and intervention) included a tab-
let for each outpatient consultation room, a router, a local server (Raspberry Pi), internet con-
nectivity, and backup power (battery or solar system if needed). If unavailable weighing scales,
mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) bands, and thermometers were provided to all health
facilities. Healthcare providers from both intervention and control facilities underwent equiva-
lent clinical refresher training on IMCI and concepts of antibiotic stewardship. Additionally,
specific training was provided on the use of the ePOCT+ CDSA in intervention facilities and
the use of the eCRF in control facilities.
Outcomes
The primary outcome was the mean proportion of 14 pre-identified major IMCI symptoms
and signs assessed by the healthcare provider, as observed by an external clinical research assis-
tant. The included symptoms were fever, cough or difficult breathing, convulsions in this ill-
ness, diarrhea, ear pain or discharge, child unable to drink or breastfeed, and child vomits
everything. The included signs were measurement of temperature, respiratory rate, pallor,
weight, mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), height, and skin turgor. In specific circum-
stances, some patients were not included in the denominator for specific signs as they were
not clinically indicated as defined by IMCI: they include MUAC in children less than 6 months
old, respiratory rate in the absence of cough or difficult breathing, and skin turgor in the
absence of diarrhea. If cough or difficult breathing was not assessed, then we took the most
conservative approach assuming that respiratory rate should have been measured, and the
same for diarrhea and skin turgor. Of note “lethargic and unconscious” was considered as
assessed if the clinician asked the caregiver if it was present during the illness, and not based
on observation of the child as being “lethargic or unconscious”.
Secondary outcomes include the proportion of consultations during which each major IMCI
symptom and sign were assessed, the proportion of which other symptoms and signs were
assessed (S2 File), the proportion of consultations where different IMCI counseling was con-
ducted, and proportion of consultations for which antibiotics were prescribed. The rationale for
the distinction between “major” IMCI and “other” symptoms and signs are described in detail in
the statistical analysis plan (S2 File). Prescription of antibiotics was assessed by the research assis-
tant by observing the actual prescription prescribed. The appropriateness of antibiotic prescription
in relation to the retained diagnosis was also assessed. An antibiotic prescription was considered
appropriate if one of the retained diagnoses required an antibiotic as per IMCI or the WHO hospi-
tal pocket book, and the absence of a prescription if no diagnosis required an antibiotic [30,31].
An appropriate antimalarial prescription was a prescription of any antimalarial if there was a posi-
tive malaria test. Assessment of appropriateness was conducted blinded to the study arm.
All outcomes pertained to the cluster level (health facility), and were assessed by an external
clinical research assistant who observed the consultations in the consultation room without
interfering with the consultation. The external clinical research assistants were clinical officers
with experience in primary care consultations for children. Data was collected using a struc-
tured and pre-tested observation form programmed on ODK, and collected on an Android-
based tablet. The observation form was based on the 2012 DHS Service Provision Assessment
Survey form [32]. Of note, a more recent modification to this survey was developed after the
initial planning of this study [32]. Modifications were made to the survey form, to shorten the
duration of the evaluation and align it more closely with the aim of the evaluation, to incorpo-
rate additional signs and symptoms in line with IMCI 2014 guidelines such as duration of
symptoms and the symptomatic assessment of lethargic or unconscious, and additions used by
similar evaluations conducted previously [17].
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Initially, antibiotic prescription was considered a co-primary outcome alongside the cur-
rent primary outcome (proportion of 14 major IMCI symptoms and signs) but was later
reclassified as a secondary outcome. We made this change to focus the analysis on quality of
care, given that antibiotic prescription was already the primary outcome of the large longitudi-
nal cluster randomized trial [24].
Sample size
The original sample size calculation was based on the previous co-primary outcome of antibi-
otic prescription. To detect a 25% absolute decrease in mean antibiotic prescription from a
baseline of 50%, using an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.10 and an alpha of 0.05, a
sample size of 25 patients in 9 clusters (health facilities) per arm was required to have 80%
power. The ICC was based on studies evaluating prescription variations among different
health care facilities/practices, ranging from 0.07 to 0.10 [3336].
Expecting a high variability in baseline values of symptoms and signs assessed by a clinician
and between clinicians [8,13,17,37], the above sample size would have 67–93% power to detect
a 30% absolute increase in the assessment of major IMCI symptoms and signs, considering a
baseline value of 40–60%, an ICC of 0.15–0.25, and an alpha of 0.05.
Randomization
Within the parent trial, health facilities were randomized 1:1 by an independent statistician,
stratified by monthly attendance, type of health facility (dispensary or health center), region,
and council [24]. For the present ancillary study, another independent statistician sampled 18/
40 facilities to be included. This included 8/8 health centers (4 intervention, and 4 control),
and 10/32 dispensaries. Among the 32 dispensaries, 10 were randomly sampled, stratified by
study arm and region (following the same 3:2 ratio in favor of the Morogoro region as done in
the parent trial). Due to the nature of the intervention, it was not feasible to blind the health-
care providers, patients, study implementers, or external clinical research assistants (observers)
to the intervention.
A convenience sampling was employed, whereby the external clinical researcher observed
all eligible consultations while present at the health facility during normal standard working
hours (Monday to Friday, 8:00 to 15:00).
Statistical methods
All analyses were performed using an intention-to-treat approach, i.e. all children with a
recorded outcome were included in the analysis regardless if the intervention, ePOCT+, was
used or not. The eCRF was designed to prevent missing data, as such all data was complete. All
analyses were performed using a clustered-level analysis approach instead of an individual-
level analysis due to the small number of clusters included [38,39]. Such an approach has been
shown to be robust in cluster randomized trials with less than 30 clusters, with cluster sizes of
>10, when assessing outcomes with a prevalence of >10%, and performs best when cluster
sizes are similar, and in case of high ICC [38,39]. The analysis was performed using a two-
stage approach as outlined by Hayes et al [39,40], to adjust for both the cluster-level and indi-
vidual-level covariates. In the first stage, we used a logistic regression model for binary out-
comes and a linear regression model for continuous outcomes adjusting for covariates and
ignoring clustering and trial arm. Cluster-level residuals were then calculated for each cluster.
In the second stage, the residuals were compared to estimate risk ratios for the binary out-
comes and mean risk difference for the continuous outcome (including the primary outcome)
between study arms. Pre-specified cluster-level covariates were the type of health facility,
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council, healthcare worker cadre and healthcare worker years of experience. Pre-specified
individual-level covariates of patients were age and sex. Covariates were pre-specified based on
their potential influence on the study outcomes. All analyses were performed using Stata v16,
v17 and v18 [41].
Ethics
Written informed consent was obtained from all parents or guardians of participants when
attending the participating health facility during the enrollment period. We also requested,
written informed consent from all healthcare providers for which their consultations were
observed during this ancillary study. Ethical approvals were granted from the Ifakara Health
Institute (IHI/IRB/No: 11–2020), the Mbeya Medical Research Ethics Committee (SZEC-2439/
R.A/V.1/65), the National Institute for Medical Research Ethics Committee (NIMR/HQ/R.8a/
Vol. IX/3486 and NIMR/HQ/R.8a/Vol. IX/3583) in Tanzania and from the cantonal ethics
review board of Vaud (CER-VD 2020–02800) in Switzerland.
Results
Baseline characteristics of health facilities, healthcare providers, and
patients
Between 23 March 2022 to 3 June 2022, 225 consultations were observed in 9 intervention
facilities, and 225 consultations in 9 control facilities (Fig 2). The type of health facility, urban/
rural localization, and region were well distributed between both study arms (Table 1). A total
of 17 healthcare providers saw patients in the control arm, and 22 in the intervention arm dur-
ing the study. Distribution of sex, age, working experience and cadre of healthcare providers
were similar in both study arms. The number of healthcare providers with less than 3 years of
experience was slightly higher in the control arm. Among the included patients, there were
slightly more female patients and median age was slightly higher in the intervention arm
Fig 2. Health facility and patient flow diagram.
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compared to the control. Within the intervention arm, ePOCT+ was used throughout the
whole consultation in 213/225 (95%) of consultations, partially used in 5/225 (2%), used after
the consultation in 6/225 (3%), and not used at all in 1/225 (0.4%) of consultations.
Assessment of symptoms and signs, and counseling
The primary outcome of mean proportion of major IMCI symptoms and signs assessed was
higher by an adjusted difference of 15.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.8% to 25.4%), p-
value 0.007) in intervention health facilities (mean of 46.4%, range 7.7% to 91.7%) compared
to control health facilities (mean of 26.3%, range 0% to 66.7%) (Table 2 and Fig 3). Weight,
mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) and pallor were the only individual assessments
Table 1. Characteristics of health facilities, healthcare providers, and patients.
Characteristics of health facilities Control (N = 9) Intervention (N = 9)
Type of facility Dispensary n (%) 5 (56%) 5 (56%)
Health Center n (%) 4 (44%) 4 (44%)
Geographical distribution Urban n (%) 4 (44%) 3 (33%)
Rural n (%) 5 (56%) 6 (67%)
Region Mbeya n (%) 4 (44%) 4 (44%)
Morogoro n (%) 5 (56%) 5 (56%)
Characteristics of healthcare providers Control (N = 17) Intervention(N = 22)
Sex Female n (%) 9 (53%) 9 (41%)
Male n (%) 8 (47%) 13 (59%)
Age Years (Median; IQR) 32 (28,36) 34 (30,38)
20- <30 years n (%) 5 (29%) 4 (18%)
30- <40 years n (%) 9 (53%) 14 (64%)
40- <50 years n (%) 2 (12%) 3 (14%)
50- <60 years n (%) 1 (6%) 1 (5%)
Experience*<= 3 years 7 (41%) 6 (27%)
3–5 years 3 (18%) 6 (27%)
5–10 years 3 (18%) 6 (27%)
>10 years 4 (24%) 4 (18%)
Cadre Medical Doctor 3 (18%) 4 (18%)
Assistant Medical Officer 1 (6%) 1 (5%)
Clinical Officer 9 (53%) 10 (46%)
Clinical Assistant 0 (0%) 1 (5%)
Registered or Enrolled Nurse 4 (24%) 4 (18%)
Medical Attendant 0 (0%) 2 (9%)
Characteristics of patients Control (N = 225) Intervention (N = 225)
Sex Female n (%) 108 (48%) 123 (55%)
Male n (%) 117 (52%) 102 (45%)
Age Months (Median; IQR) 14 (7,28) 19 (9,31)
2–11 months n (%) 98 (44%) 69 (31%)
12–23 months n (%) 54 (24%) 72 (32%)
24–35 months n (%) 33 (15%) 36 (16%)
36–47 months n (%) 24 (11%) 26 (12%)
48–59 months n (%) 16 (7%) 22 (10%)
IQR: Interquartile range
*Experience: Years of working experience
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among the pre-identified major IMCI symptoms and signs that showed a statistically signifi-
cant difference in the adjusted risk ratio (Table 2 and Fig 4). Among other symptoms and
signs assessed, there was a statistically significant difference in the proportion of patients for
which the duration of cough, duration of diarrhea, mother’s HIV status were assessed, and the
proportion of children who were undressed for the physical examination (Table 3). There was
no statistical difference in the proportion of counseling topics covered by healthcare providers
between study arms (Table 4). For most outcomes the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)
was relatively high suggesting high variability in adherence to IMCI between health facilities.
For the primary outcome of major IMCI symptoms and signs assessed, the ICC was higher in
intervention health facilities (0.608) compared to control health facilities (0.354). This differ-
ence can also be seen when visualizing the mean proportion of major IMCI symptoms and
signs assessed from each health facility in a scatterplot (Fig 3).
Antibiotic and antimalarial prescription
Antibiotic prescription as observed by the external clinical researcher was lower in interven-
tion health facilities compared to control health facilities with an adjusted risk ratio of 0.5, 95%
CI 0.4 to 0.7 p-value <0.001 (Table 5 and Fig 5). The documented antibiotic prescription by
healthcare providers (in the ePOCT+ tool for intervention facilities, and eCRF in control
Table 2. Major IMCI Symptoms and Signs Assessed.
Primary Outcome Control, mean %
(range)
Intervention, mean %
(range)
Intraclass correlation
coefficient
Adjusted mean difference with 95%
CI
a
p-value
Primary outcome
Major IMCI Symptoms and
Signs
26.3% (0%; 66.7%) 46.4% (7.7%; 91.7%) 0.652 15.1% (4.8%; 25.4%) 0.007
Secondary Outcome Control, n/N
a
(%) Intervention, n/N
b
(%))Intraclass correlation
coefficient
Adjusted risk ratio with 95% CI
a
p-
value
IMCI Symptoms assessed:
Convulsions in this illness
b
16/225 (7.1%) 75/225 (33.3%) 0.442 2.1 (0.6; 7.0) 0.208
Unable to drink or
breastfeed
b
47/225 (20.9%) 107/225 (47.6%) 0.275 2.3 (0.8; 6.4) 0.109
Vomiting everything
b
41/225 (18.2%) 81/225 (36.0%) 0.524 1.7 (0.5; 5.9) 0.363
Fever 196/225 (87.1%) 204/225 (90.7%) 0.060 1.0 (1.0; 1.14) 0.342
Cough or difficulty breathing 188/225 (83.6%) 189/225 (84.0%) 0.098 1.0 (0.9; 1.2) 0.847
Diarrhea 111/225 (49.3%) 130/225 (57.8% 0.289 1.1 (0.5; 2.4) 0.872
Ear problem 11/225 (4.9%) 37/225 (16.4%) 0.504 1.0 (0.3; 3.5) 0.951
IMCI Signs assessed
Weight 38/225 (16.9%) 128/225 (56.9%) 0.582 4.9 (1.9; 12.9) 0.004
Height 1/225 (0.4%) 3/225 (1.3%) 0.059 0.3 (0.1; 2.1) 0.225
MUAC 4/195 (2.1%) 131/202 (64.9%) 0.719 5.5 (1.7; 17.6) 0.008
Temperature 95/225 (42.2%) 148/225 (65.8%) 0.586 1.9 (0.6; 5.6) 0.227
Pallor 13/225 (5.8%) 72/225 (32.0%) 0.324 4.1 (1.6; 10.4) 0.005
Respiratory rate 15/182 (8.2%) 47/164 (28.7%) 0.280 1.9 (0.6; 6.1) 0.230
Skin turgor 4/153 (2.6%) 16/141 (11.4%) 0.142 2.1 (0.9; 5.0) 0.087
CI: Confidence interval; MUAC: Mid-upper arm circumference
a
The differences and relative risk were adjusted by type of health facility, council, healthcare worker cadre, healthcare worker years of experience, patient age and sex
b
Denominator based on patients for which this sign is clinically indicated to measure, i.e. for MUAC only children age 6 months and above, for respiratory rate only
patients for which cough or difficulty is present or not asked, etc
c
IMCI Danger sign
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Fig 3. Scatter-plot of the mean proportion of the major IMCI symptoms and signs assessed.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pdig.0000694.g003
Fig 4. Proportion of individual major IMCI symptoms and signs assessed.
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facilities) during the same 5-week period collected by the external clinical researchers in the
same health facilities of the present analysis, was slightly lower than that observed by the exter-
nal clinical researchers. The adjusted risk ratio remained nonetheless similar, 0.4, 95% CI 0.2
to 0.7, p-value 0.005.
81.9% of antibiotic prescriptions were appropriate in the intervention arm, compared to
51.4% in the control arm, adjusted relative risk of 1.5, 95% CI 1.2–1.5, p-value 0.003. All
patients with malaria appropriately received an antimalarial treatment, and no patient without
malaria received an antimalarial in both study arms.
Table 3. Other Symptoms and Signs Assessed.
Symptoms & signs assessed Control, n/N (%) Intervention, n/N (%) Intraclass correlation coefficient Adjusted risk ratio with 95% CI
a
p-value
Lethargic or Unconscious
b
8/225 (3.6%) 14/225 (6.2%) 0.086 1.4 (0.6, 3.3) 0.476
Duration of fever
c
96/147 (65.3%) 141/166 (84.9%) 0.176 1.6 (0.9, 2.6) 0.086
Duration of cough
c
87/145 (60.0%) 110/128 (85.9%) 0.103 1.7 (1.1, 2.6) 0.021
Duration of diarrhea
c
28/39 (71.8%) 43/46 (93.5%) 0.107 1.3 (1.0, 1.6) 0.036
Mother’s HIV status 5/225 (2.2%) 162/225 (72.0%) 0.701 11.5 (4.1, 32.5) 0.002
Tuberculosis household contact 2/225 (0.9%) 60/225 (26.7%) 0.422 1.9 (0.5, 7.7) 0.361
Neck stiffness 2/147 (1.4%) 2/166 (1.2%) 0.010 n/a
d
Felt behind ear
c
1/4 (25.0%) 2/3 (66.7%) n/a n/a
d
Looked in mouth 4/225 (1.8%) 20/225 (8.9%) 0.305 1.9 (0.5, 7.7) 0.363
Pulse oximetry n/a 24/164 (14.6%) 0.717 n/a
Lung auscultation 26/183 (14.2%) 15/164 (9.2%) 0.235 1.6 (0.5, 5.1) 0.373
Undressed the child 43/225 (19.1%) 99/225 (44.0%) 0.379 3.4 (1.4; 8.3) 0.011
Checked health card 68/225 (30.2%) 89/225 (39.6%) 0.552 1.5 (0.5, 5.0) 0.465
CI: Confidence interval; HIV: Human Immunodeficiency Virus; n/a: not applicable
a
The risk ratio was adjusted by type of health facility, council, healthcare worker cadre, healthcare worker years of experience, patient age and sex
b
IMCI Danger sign
c
Denominator based on patients for which clinically relevant to assess, i.e. duration of fever in those with reported fever; duration of cough/difficulty breathing, pulse
oximetry or lung auscultation in those with cough or difficult breathing; duration of diarrhea in those with diarrhea; felt behind ear in those with an ear problem; neck
stiffness in those with fever
d
Adjusted risk ratio not calculated when fewer than 5 events
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Table 4. Counseling.
Counseling topic Control, n/N (%) Intervention, n/N (%) Intraclass correlation
coefficient
Adjusted risk ratio with 95%
CI
a
p-value
Informed diagnosis 92/225 (40.9%) 105/225 (46.7%) 0.454 1.4 (0.5, 4.0) 0.557
Feeding habit when not ill 40/225 (17.8%) 33/225 (14.7%) 0.427 0.7 (0.2, 2.7) 0.609
Feeding when not ill 32/225 (14.2%) 27/225 (12.0%) 0.258 0.7 (0.2, 1.8) 0.391
Extra fluids during current illness 12/225 (5.3%) 21/225 (9.3%) 0.198 1.2 (0.4, 4.0) 0.748
Continue feeding and breastfeeding when
ill
25/225 (11.1%) 33/225 (14.7%) 0.292 1.0 (0.3, 3.1) 0.987
Danger signs to return to health facility 13/225 (5.8%) 17/225 (7.6%) 0.152 0.6 (0.2, 1.3) 0.182
Discussed growth chart 14/225 (6.2%) 15/225 (6.7%) 0.206 1.1 (0.3, 4.0) 0.826
Discuss follow up visit 18/225 (8.0%) 8/225 (3.6%) 0.052 0.9 (0.4, 2.1) 0.703
Opportunity to ask questions 87/225 (38.7%) 122/225 (54.2%) 0.717 1.0 (0.2, 4.9) 0.998
CI: Confidence interval
a
The relative risk was adjusted by type of health facility, council, healthcare worker cadre, healthcare worker years of experience, patient age and sex
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Discussion
This cluster randomized controlled trial in Tanzania found that the use of ePOCT+, a digital
clinical decision support algorithm, for the management of sick children aged 2–59 months
old, moderately increased (by 15%) the mean proportion of major IMCI symptoms and signs
assessed by healthcare providers in primary care level health facilities. The overall proportion
of IMCI symptoms and signs assessed at each individual consultation however remained low.
The overall increase in the mean proportion of major IMCI symptom and signs assessed by
healthcare providers aligns with previous studies in Tanzania [13], Afghanistan [37], Nigeria
[17], and Burkina Faso [16], but in contrast to findings in South Africa [42], which did not
find improvements in the assessment of IMCI symptoms and signs. While these findings sug-
gest that digital clinical decision support algorithms can positively enhance quality of care for
Table 5. Antibiotic prescription and appropriate antibiotic and antimalarial prescription.
Control Intervention Intraclass correlation
coefficient
Adjusted risk ratio with
95% CI
p-value
Antibiotic prescription as observed by external clinical
researchers
172/225
(76.4%)
84/225 (37.3%) 0.146 0.5 (0.4, 0.7) <0.001
Antibiotic prescription as reported in ePOCT+ or eCRF by
healthcare providers
ab
162/239
(67.8%)
90/294 (30.6%) 0.214 0.4 (0.2, 0.7) 0.005
Appropriate antibiotic prescription 112/218
(51.4%)
158/193
(81.9%)
0.165 1.5 (1.2; 1.8) 0.003
Appropriate antimalarial prescription 2/2 (100%) 30/30 (100%) n/a n/a n/a
a
Antibiotic prescription among new cases in patients aged 2–59 months, where antibiotic prescription was documented during the same days and same health facilities
as the ancillary study
b
Analysis performed using the same model including the same individual and cluster level adjustment factors, except for those related to the healthcare providers
(education, and cadre)
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pdig.0000694.t005
Fig 5. Reported and observed antibiotic prescription and appropriateness. Panel A presents the antibiotic
prescription as observed by the external clinical researchers in 225 consultations in the control arm and 225
consultations in the intervention arm. It also presents the reported antibiotic prescription as documented by the
healthcare providers in the ePOCT+ digital health tool among 239 new consultations in patients aged 2–59 months in
intervention health facilities, and the documented antibiotic prescription within the eCRF in the control health
facilities during the same days and same health facilities when the external clinical researchers were present. Panel B
presents the appropriateness of antibiotic prescription according to the diagnoses documented or stated by the
healthcare providers in the 225 control arm consultations and 225 intervention arm consultations.
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sick children, there is much room for improvement. Indeed, the proportion of most individual
IMCI symptoms and signs assessed in both control and intervention arms was low, much
lower than in previous studies, and many symptoms and signs were not assessed more fre-
quently in intervention health facilities. Differences compared to other studies, may be
explained by the more pragmatic nature of the study compared to other studies conducted in
more controlled settings (shorter pilot studies) where the Hawthorne effect may have a greater
influence on healthcare provider behavior [13]. In addition, our study found much poorer
adherence to IMCI in the control arm compared to most other similar studies; which could
partly be explained by differences in the setting and healthcare providers, notably in the fre-
quency and type of IMCI training provided to healthcare providers [16,17]. The low propor-
tion of children assessed for danger signs in order to identify children at highest risk of
mortality is most concerning (33% for convulsions, 48% for unable to drink or breastfeed, and
36% for vomiting everything in the intervention arm). Respiratory rate was also infrequently
assessed (29% in intervention arm), despite being an essential sign to distinguish children with
cough or difficulty breathing requiring antibiotics or not [30].
The statistically significant increase in the assessment of weight (aRR 4.9 [95% CI 1.9 to
12.9]), and MUAC (aRR 5.5 [95% CI 1.7 to 17.6]) is noteworthy, as they are critical anthropo-
metric measures to identify children with malnutrition, a condition that contributes signifi-
cantly to childhood morbidity and mortality. Systematically measuring weight and MUAC to
identify and manage severe malnutrition can indeed improve clinical outcomes as well as the
long-term health status of children [43]. The low proportion of children assessed for height/
length reflects the difficulty and constraints of this measurement in particular [44], and the
impact of not requiring the measurement to be mandatory within the digital tool.
While improved adherence to the assessment of IMCI symptoms and signs would likely be
beneficial, translation to improved clinical outcomes should not automatically be assumed.
Healthcare providers often integrate a number of clinical cues that may allow them to distin-
guish which child would truly require danger signs to be assessed, or respiratory rate to be
measured. For example, a 2 year old child presenting to a primary care health facility smiling
and playing in the consultation room, with complaints of cough and runny nose for the past 2
days without difficulty breathing or fever, is unlikely to have danger signs and very often not
have fast breathing or chest indrawing. This raises the important question on how to best
assess quality of care, and whether it can be done without assessment of clinical outcome.
The large variation in mean proportion of major IMCI symptoms and signs between inter-
vention health facilities provide clues to higher potential benefits of the intervention. The three
best health facilities have a mean score of 60% or above, and the three worst below 30%. While
clinical decision support algorithms may help improve knowledge and information on what
symptoms and signs to assess, it does not completely address the other barriers and bad habits
linked to poor adherence to IMCI [9,10]. As with many complex health interventions, imple-
mentation of new interventions, and or guidelines may often not succeed with training alone,
instead concomitant and meaningful mentorship must accompany it [45]. Indeed training,
mentorship, and dashboards integrating benchmarking were part of the current intervention
package, however these supportive interventions were not targeted towards assuring adher-
ence to the assessment of many IMCI symptoms and signs but rather targeted on antibiotic
stewardship, and overall uptake on the use of the tools. Adaptations to these supportive tools
to target specific IMCI quality of care measures may help [4648]. Further qualitative investi-
gations are underway to better understand healthcare provider perspectives on barriers in
adhering to ePOCT+ and the IMCI chartbook.
The study also revealed a two-fold reduction in antibiotic prescriptions (adjusted relative
risk 0.5, 95% CI 0.4 to 0.7), and 50% improvement in the appropriate use of antibiotics in
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health facilities using ePOCT+ (adjusted relative risk 1.5 (95% CI 1.2 to 1.8). These are critical
findings given the global concern for bacterial antimicrobial resistance [49], and validating the
results found in the parent trial [24]. Similar reductions were found in the parent trial using
the intention-to-treat results over the full 11 month trial period (adjusted relative risk 0.6 (95%
CI 0.5 to 0.6) [24], and in the same 5-week period as the present trial (adjusted relative risk 0.4,
95% CI 0.2 to 0.7). However, the documented antibiotic prescription as observed by external
clinical researchers was slightly higher than that documented by the healthcare providers in
ePOCT+ (intervention health facilities) and the eCRF (control health facilities), suggesting
that some healthcare providers may under report antibiotic prescription in ePOCT+ and the
eCRF.
There were several limitations to this study. First, the Hawthorne effect, the presence of an
external clinical researcher observing the consultation may have influenced the healthcare pro-
vider’s practice in both study arms. Indeed the uptake of the ePOCT+ tool in this study was
higher compared to the parent trial (95% versus 76%), likely due to the presence of the
researchers. Despite this, adherence to the IMCI chartbook was relatively low, and substan-
tially lower compared to other studies, suggesting that the Hawthorne effect may not have had
such a big impact, and the desirability bias minimal. Second, sample size; while the study was
sufficiently powered for the primary outcome, interpretation of the secondary outcomes
would have benefited from a higher sample size. Indeed many secondary outcomes did not
show statistical significance despite relatively high effect size, likely due to the higher than
expected heterogeneity between health facilities as indicated by the high ICC. Third, the inter-
vention package included not only the digital tool, but also mentorship and benchmarking
quality of care dashboards. It is thus not possible to understand what part, and to what extent
the intervention package impacted quality of care. Finally as discussed in previous paragraphs,
adherence to IMCI is an imperfect proxy for the measurement of quality of care.
In conclusion, a digital clinical decision support algorithm package can help improve qual-
ity of care, however adherence to IMCI remained low for many symptoms and signs in a close
to real world assessment. Further efforts including innovative approaches to improve quality
of care are highly needed. The implementation of multiple interventions, such as the develop-
ment and improvement of supportive mentorship of clinicians, better healthcare provider
incentives, task-shifting, ongoing training and performance accountability may help address
the many barriers to quality of care.
Supporting information
S1 Checklist. CONSORT Checklist.
(DOCX)
S1 File. DYNAMIC Tanzania study protocol.
(PDF)
S2 File. Statistical analysis plan.
(PDF)
Acknowledgments
We would like to first thank all the participating healthcare providers, patients and caregivers.
We acknowledge the contributions of the research assistants at the Ifakara Health Institute and
Mbeya Medical Research Centre–National Institute of Medical Research, who assisted in the
data collection, the Information Technology staff at Unisante
´(Sylvain Schaufelberger, Greg
Martin), and staff at Wavemind (Emmanuel Barchichat, Alain Fresco, and Quentin Girard)
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for their work on the medAL-suite during the study, and Community Health Management
Team members in the 5 participating councils in Tanzania for their collaboration in imple-
menting the study. We acknowledge researchers of the Tools of Integrated Management of
Childhood Illness and DYNAMIC Rwanda project for their contributions to ePOCT+ and the
many common research activities (Dr Fenella Beynon, Dr Lena Matata, Dr Helene Langet, Dr
Ludovico Cobuccio, Dr Victor Rwandacu, Dr Robert Moshiro). We would also like to
acknowledge Janet Urquhart-Ducharme for her assistance in proofreading a version of this
manuscript. We would like to acknowledge Dr Irene Masanja for her work on the initial devel-
opment of the study, who regrettably passed away before the start of the study. Dr Godfrey
Kavishe passed away before the submission of the final version of this manuscript. Rainer Tan
accepts responsibility for the integrity and validity of the data collected and analyzed.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization: Rainer Tan, Godfrey Kavishe, Alexandra V. Kulinkina, Lameck B.
Luwanda, Kristina Keitel, Marie-Annick Le Pogam, Honorati Masanja, Vale
´rie
D’Acremont.
Data curation: Rainer Tan, Godfrey Kavishe, Sabine Renggli.
Formal analysis: Rainer Tan, Godfrey Kavishe.
Funding acquisition: Nyanda Ntinginya, Honorati Masanja, Vale
´rie D’Acremont.
Methodology: Rainer Tan, Godfrey Kavishe, Marie-Annick Le Pogam.
Project administration: Godfrey Kavishe, Alexandra V. Kulinkina, Sabine Renggli, Lameck B.
Luwanda, Chacha Mangu, Geofrey Ashery, Nyanda Ntinginya, Honorati Masanja.
Software: Rainer Tan, Godfrey Kavishe, Sabine Renggli, Ibrahim Evans Mtebene, Peter Agrea.
Supervision: Rainer Tan, Godfrey Kavishe, Alexandra V. Kulinkina, Sabine Renggli, Lameck
B. Luwanda, Chacha Mangu, Geofrey Ashery, Margaret Jorram, Humphrey Mhagama,
Marie-Annick Le Pogam, Nyanda Ntinginya, Honorati Masanja, Vale
´rie D’Acremont.
Writing original draft: Rainer Tan, Godfrey Kavishe.
Writing review & editing: Rainer Tan, Godfrey Kavishe, Alexandra V. Kulinkina, Sabine
Renggli, Lameck B. Luwanda, Chacha Mangu, Geofrey Ashery, Margaret Jorram, Ibrahim
Evans Mtebene, Peter Agrea, Humphrey Mhagama, Kristina Keitel, Marie-Annick Le
Pogam, Nyanda Ntinginya, Honorati Masanja, Vale
´rie D’Acremont.
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Article
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Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts. Methods We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen–drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis; the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome; the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen; the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest; and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals; respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection. Additionally, we produced global and regional forecasts of AMR burden until 2050 for three scenarios: a reference scenario that is a probabilistic forecast of the most likely future; a Gram-negative drug scenario that assumes future drug development that targets Gram-negative pathogens; and a better care scenario that assumes future improvements in health-care quality and access to appropriate antimicrobials. We present final estimates aggregated to the global, super-regional, and regional level. Findings In 2021, we estimated 4·71 million (95% UI 4·23–5·19) deaths were associated with bacterial AMR, including 1·14 million (1·00–1·28) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. Trends in AMR mortality over the past 31 years varied substantially by age and location. From 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR decreased by more than 50% among children younger than 5 years yet increased by over 80% for adults 70 years and older. AMR mortality decreased for children younger than 5 years in all super-regions, whereas AMR mortality in people 5 years and older increased in all super-regions. For both deaths associated with and deaths attributable to AMR, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus increased the most globally (from 261 000 associated deaths [95% UI 150 000–372 000] and 57 200 attributable deaths [34 100–80 300] in 1990, to 550 000 associated deaths [500 000–600 000] and 130 000 attributable deaths [113 000–146 000] in 2021). Among Gram-negative bacteria, resistance to carbapenems increased more than any other antibiotic class, rising from 619 000 associated deaths (405 000–834 000) in 1990, to 1·03 million associated deaths (909 000–1·16 million) in 2021, and from 127 000 attributable deaths (82 100–171 000) in 1990, to 216 000 (168 000–264 000) attributable deaths in 2021. There was a notable decrease in non-COVID-related infectious disease in 2020 and 2021. Our forecasts show that an estimated 1·91 million (1·56–2·26) deaths attributable to AMR and 8·22 million (6·85–9·65) deaths associated with AMR could occur globally in 2050. Super-regions with the highest all-age AMR mortality rate in 2050 are forecasted to be south Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Increases in deaths attributable to AMR will be largest among those 70 years and older (65·9% [61·2–69·8] of all-age deaths attributable to AMR in 2050). In stark contrast to the strong increase in number of deaths due to AMR of 69·6% (51·5–89·2) from 2022 to 2050, the number of DALYs showed a much smaller increase of 9·4% (–6·9 to 29·0) to 46·5 million (37·7 to 57·3) in 2050. Under the better care scenario, across all age groups, 92·0 million deaths (82·8–102·0) could be cumulatively averted between 2025 and 2050, through better care of severe infections and improved access to antibiotics, and under the Gram-negative drug scenario, 11·1 million AMR deaths (9·08–13·2) could be averted through the development of a Gram-negative drug pipeline to prevent AMR deaths. Interpretation This study presents the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR from 1990 to 2021, with results forecasted until 2050. Evaluating changing trends in AMR mortality across time and location is necessary to understand how this important global health threat is developing and prepares us to make informed decisions regarding interventions. Our findings show the importance of infection prevention, as shown by the reduction of AMR deaths in those younger than 5 years. Simultaneously, our results underscore the concerning trend of AMR burden among those older than 70 years, alongside a rapidly ageing global community. The opposing trends in the burden of AMR deaths between younger and older individuals explains the moderate future increase in global number of DALYs versus number of deaths. Given the high variability of AMR burden by location and age, it is important that interventions combine infection prevention, vaccination, minimisation of inappropriate antibiotic use in farming and humans, and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of AMR deaths that are forecasted for 2050.
Article
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Background Electronic clinical decision-making support systems (eCDSS) aim to assist clinicians making complex patient management decisions and improve adherence to evidence-based guidelines. Integrated management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) provides guidelines for management of sick children attending primary health care clinics and is widely implemented globally. An electronic version of IMCI (eIMCI) was developed in South Africa. Methods We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial comparing management of sick children with eIMCI to the management when using paper-based IMCI (pIMCI) in one district in KwaZulu-Natal. From 31 clinics in the district, 15 were randomly assigned to intervention (eIMCI) or control (pIMCI) groups. Computers were deployed in eIMCI clinics, and one IMCI trained nurse was randomly selected to participate from each clinic. eIMCI participants received a one-day computer training, and all participants received a similar three-day IMCI update and two mentoring visits. A quantitative survey was conducted among mothers and sick children attending participating clinics to assess the quality of care provided by IMCI practitioners. Sick child assessments by participants in eIMCI and pIMCI groups were compared to assessment by an IMCI expert. Results Self-reported computer skills were poor among all nurse participants. IMCI knowledge was similar in both groups. Among 291 enrolled children: 152 were in the eIMCI group; 139 in the pIMCI group. The mean number of enrolled children was 9.7 per clinic (range 7-12). IMCI implementation was sub-optimal in both eIMCI and pIMCI groups. eIMCI consultations took longer than pIMCI consultations (median duration 28 minutes vs 25 minutes; p = 0.02). eIMCI participants were less likely than pIMCI participants to correctly classify children for presenting symptoms, but were more likely to correctly classify for screening conditions, particularly malnutrition. eIMCI participants were less likely to provide all required medications (124/152; 81.6% vs 126/139; 91.6%, p= 0.026), and more likely to prescribe unnecessary medication (48/152; 31.6% vs 20/139; 14.4%, p = 0.004) compared to pIMCI participants. Conclusions Implementation of eIMCI failed to improve management of sick children, with poor IMCI implementation in both groups. Further research is needed to understand barriers to comprehensive implementation of both pIMCI and eIMCI. (349) Clinical trials registration Clinicaltrials.gov ID: BFC157/19, August 2019.
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Excessive antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance are major global public health threats. We developed ePOCT+, a digital clinical decision support algorithm in combination with C-reactive protein test, hemoglobin test, pulse oximeter and mentorship, to guide health-care providers in managing acutely sick children under 15 years old. To evaluate the impact of ePOCT+ compared to usual care, we conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial in Tanzanian primary care facilities. Over 11 months, 23,593 consultations were included from 20 ePOCT+ health facilities and 20,713 from 20 usual care facilities. The use of ePOCT+ in intervention facilities resulted in a reduction in the coprimary outcome of antibiotic prescription compared to usual care (23.2% versus 70.1%, adjusted difference −46.4%, 95% confidence interval (CI) −57.6 to −35.2). The coprimary outcome of day 7 clinical failure was noninferior in ePOCT+ facilities compared to usual care facilities (adjusted relative risk 0.97, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.10). There was no difference in the secondary safety outcomes of death and nonreferred secondary hospitalizations by day 7. Using ePOCT+ could help address the urgent problem of antimicrobial resistance by safely reducing antibiotic prescribing. Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT05144763
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Clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) can strengthen the quality of integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) in resource-constrained settings. Several IMCI-related CDSSs have been developed and implemented in recent years. Yet, despite having a shared starting point, the IMCI-related CDSSs are markedly varied due to the need for interpretation when translating narrative guidelines into decision logic combined with considerations of context and design choices. Between October 2019 and April 2021, we conducted a comparative analysis of 4 IMCI-related CDSSs. The extent of adaptations to IMCI varied, but common themes emerged. Scope was extended to cover a broader range of conditions. Content was added or modified to enhance precision, align with new evidence, and support rational resource use. Structure was modified to increase efficiency, improve usability, and prioritize care for severely ill children. The multistakeholder development processes involved syntheses of recommendations from existing guidelines and literature; creation and validation of clinical algorithms; and iterative development, implementation, and evaluation. The common themes surrounding adaptations of IMCI guidance highlight the complexities of digitalizing evidence-based recommendations and reinforce the rationale for leveraging standards for CDSS development, such as the World Health Organization's SMART Guidelines. Implementation through multistakeholder dialogue is critical to ensure CDSSs can effectively and equitably improve quality of care for children in resource-constrained settings.
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Background Electronic clinical decision-making support systems (eCDSS) aim to assist clinicians making complex patient management decisions and improve adherence to evidence-based guidelines. Integrated management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) provides guidelines for management of sick children attending primary health care clinics and is widely implemented globally. An electronic version of IMCI (eIMCI) was developed in South Africa. Methods We conducted a randomized controlled trial comparing management of sick children with eIMCI to the management when using paper-based IMCI (pIMCI) in one district in KwaZulu-Natal. From 31 clinics in the district, 15 were randomly assigned to intervention (eIMCI) or control (pIMCI) groups. Computers were deployed in eIMCI clinics, and one IMCI trained nurse was randomly selected to participate from each clinic. eIMCI participants received a one-day computer training, and all participants received a similar three-day IMCI update and two mentoring visits. A quantitative survey was conducted among mothers and sick children attending participating clinics to assess the quality of care provided by IMCI practitioners. Sick child assessments by participants in eIMCI and pIMCI groups were compared to assessment by an IMCI expert. Results Self-reported computer skills were poor among all nurse participants. IMCI knowledge was similar in both groups. Among 291 enrolled children: 152 were in the eIMCI group; 139 in the pIMCI group. The mean number of enrolled children was 9.7 per clinic (range 7–12). eIMCI consultations took longer than pIMCI consultations (median duration 28 minutes vs 25 minutes; p = 0.02). eIMCI participants were less likely than pIMCI participants to correctly classify children for presenting symptoms, but were more likely to correctly classify for screening conditions (TB, HIV and nutrition). However, this did not increase identification of children who screened positive. eIMCI participants were less likely to provide all required medications (124/152; 81.6% vs 126/139; 91.6%, p = 0.026), and more likely to prescribe unnecessary medication (48/152; 31.6% vs 20/139; 14.4%, p = 0.004) compared to pIMCI participants. Conclusions Implementation of eIMCI failed to improve management of sick children, with poor IMCI implementation in both groups. Further research is needed to understand barriers to comprehensive implementation of both pIMCI and eIMCI. (350) Clinical Trials Registration: BFC157/19
Article
Full-text available
Electronic clinical decision support algorithms (CDSAs) have been developed to address high childhood mortality and inappropriate antibiotic prescription by helping clinicians adhere to guidelines. Previously identified challenges of CDSAs include their limited scope, usability, and outdated clinical content. To address these challenges we developed ePOCT+, a CDSA for the care of pediatric outpatients in low- and middle-income settings, and the medical algorithm suite (medAL-suite), a software for the creation and execution of CDSAs. Following the principles of digital development, we aim to describe the process and lessons learnt from the development of ePOCT+ and the medAL-suite. In particular, this work outlines the systematic integrative development process in the design and implementation of these tools required to meet the needs of clinicians to improve uptake and quality of care. We considered the feasibility, acceptability and reliability of clinical signs and symptoms, as well as the diagnostic and prognostic performance of predictors. To assure clinical validity, and appropriateness for the country of implementation the algorithm underwent numerous reviews by clinical experts and health authorities from the implementing countries. The digitalization process involved the creation of medAL-creator, a digital platform which allows clinicians without IT programming skills to easily create the algorithms, and medAL-reader the mobile health (mHealth) application used by clinicians during the consultation. Extensive feasibility tests were done with feedback from end-users of multiple countries to improve the clinical algorithm and medAL-reader software. We hope that the development framework used for developing ePOCT+ will help support the development of other CDSAs, and that the open-source medAL-suite will enable others to easily and independently implement them. Further clinical validation studies are underway in Tanzania, Rwanda, Kenya, Senegal, and India.
Article
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Background Cluster randomised trials (CRTs) are often designed with a small number of clusters, but it is not clear which analysis methods are optimal when the outcome is binary. This simulation study aimed to determine (i) whether cluster-level analysis (CL), generalised linear mixed models (GLMM), and generalised estimating equations with sandwich variance (GEE) approaches maintain acceptable type-one error including the impact of non-normality of cluster effects and low prevalence, and if so (ii) which methods have the greatest power. We simulated CRTs with 8–30 clusters, altering the cluster-size, outcome prevalence, intracluster correlation coefficient, and cluster effect distribution. We analysed each dataset with weighted and unweighted CL; GLMM with adaptive quadrature and restricted pseudolikelihood; GEE with Kauermann-and-Carroll and Fay-and-Graubard sandwich variance using independent and exchangeable working correlation matrices. P-values were from a t-distribution with degrees of freedom (DoF) as clusters minus cluster-level parameters; GLMM pseudolikelihood also used Satterthwaite and Kenward-Roger DoF. Results Unweighted CL, GLMM pseudolikelihood, and Fay-and-Graubard GEE with independent or exchangeable working correlation matrix controlled type-one error in > 97% scenarios with clusters minus parameters DoF. Cluster-effect distribution and prevalence of outcome did not usually affect analysis method performance. GEE had the least power. With 20–30 clusters, GLMM had greater power than CL with varying cluster-size but similar power otherwise; with fewer clusters, GLMM had lower power with common cluster-size, similar power with medium variation, and greater power with large variation in cluster-size. Conclusion We recommend that CRTs with ≤ 30 clusters and a binary outcome use an unweighted CL or restricted pseudolikelihood GLMM both with DoF clusters minus cluster-level parameters.
Article
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Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to human health around the world. Previous publications have estimated the effect of AMR on incidence, deaths, hospital length of stay, and health-care costs for specific pathogen–drug combinations in select locations. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive estimates of AMR burden to date. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 23 pathogens and 88 pathogen–drug combinations in 204 countries and territories in 2019. We obtained data from systematic literature reviews, hospital systems, surveillance systems, and other sources, covering 471 million individual records or isolates and 7585 study-location-years. We used predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including for locations with no data. Our approach can be divided into five broad components: number of deaths where infection played a role, proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest, and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden based on two counterfactuals: deaths attributable to AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by drug-susceptible infections), and deaths associated with AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. We present final estimates aggregated to the global and regional level. Findings On the basis of our predictive statistical models, there were an estimated 4·95 million (3·62–6·57) deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019, including 1·27 million (95% UI 0·911–1·71) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. At the regional level, we estimated the all-age death rate attributable to resistance to be highest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 27·3 deaths per 100 000 (20·9–35·3), and lowest in Australasia, at 6·5 deaths (4·3–9·4) per 100 000. Lower respiratory infections accounted for more than 1·5 million deaths associated with resistance in 2019, making it the most burdensome infectious syndrome. The six leading pathogens for deaths associated with resistance (Escherichia coli, followed by Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were responsible for 929 000 (660 000–1 270 000) deaths attributable to AMR and 3·57 million (2·62–4·78) deaths associated with AMR in 2019. One pathogen–drug combination, meticillin-resistant S aureus, caused more than 100 000 deaths attributable to AMR in 2019, while six more each caused 50 000–100 000 deaths: multidrug-resistant excluding extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis, third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant A baumannii, fluoroquinolone-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant K pneumoniae, and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K pneumoniae. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR, as well as an evaluation of the availability of data. AMR is a leading cause of death around the world, with the highest burdens in low-resource settings. Understanding the burden of AMR and the leading pathogen–drug combinations contributing to it is crucial to making informed and location-specific policy decisions, particularly about infection prevention and control programmes, access to essential antibiotics, and research and development of new vaccines and antibiotics. There are serious data gaps in many low-income settings, emphasising the need to expand microbiology laboratory capacity and data collection systems to improve our understanding of this important human health threat. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.
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In this article, we introduce a new command, clan, that conducts a cluster-level analysis of cluster randomized trials. The command simplifies adjusting for individual- and cluster-level covariates and can also account for a stratified design. It can be used to analyze a continuous, binary, or rate outcome.
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Effective, scalable and sustainable strategies to improve quality of care are needed to address the substantial burden of preventable deaths of children under-five in resource-constrained settings. Clinical decision support systems (CDSS), digital tools which generate recommendations for healthcare providers based on patient-specific information, show promise. By strengthening adherence to evidence-based assessment, diagnosis and management and generating high-quality data, CDSS can improve quality care - care that is effective, safe, people-centered, timely, equitable, integrated and efficient. Designing and implementing CDSS that deliver this impact is a complex and iterative process. We advocate for collaboration on developing and evaluating these tools to guide their implementation for maximal impact.