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The Inflation Technique for Causal Inference with Latent Variables

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Abstract

The problem of causal inference is to determine if a given probability distribution on observed variables is compatible with some causal structure. The difficult case is when the causal structure includes latent variables. We here introduce the inflation technique\textit{inflation technique} for tackling this problem. An inflation of a causal structure is a new causal structure that can contain multiple copies of each of the original variables, but where the ancestry of each copy mirrors that of the original. To every distribution of the observed variables that is compatible with the original causal structure, we assign a family of marginal distributions on certain subsets of the copies that are compatible with the inflated causal structure. It follows that compatibility constraints for the inflation can be translated into compatibility constraints for the original causal structure. Even if the constraints at the level of inflation are weak, such as observable statistical independences implied by disjoint causal ancestry, the translated constraints can be strong. We apply this method to derive new inequalities whose violation by a distribution witnesses that distribution's incompatibility with the causal structure (of which Bell inequalities and Pearl's instrumental inequality are prominent examples). We describe an algorithm for deriving all such inequalities for the original causal structure that follow from ancestral independences in the inflation. For three observed binary variables with pairwise common causes, it yields inequalities that are stronger in at least some aspects than those obtainable by existing methods. We also describe an algorithm that derives a weaker set of inequalities but is more efficient. Finally, we discuss which inflations are such that the inequalities one obtains from them remain valid even for quantum (and post-quantum) generalizations of the notion of a causal model.

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Let Σ\Sigma be a family of Borel fields of subsets of a set S and μS\mu_\mathfrak{S} probabilistic measures on measurable spaces S,S\langle {\mathfrak{S},S} \rangle , where SΣ\mathfrak{S} \in \Sigma . The family of measures μS\mu_\mathfrak{S} , SΣ\mathfrak{S} \in \Sigma is denoted by μΣ\mu_\Sigma . The measures μS1\mu_{\mathfrak{S}_1 } and μS2\mu_{\mathfrak{S}_2 } are said to be consistent if μS1(A)=μS2(A)\mu_{\mathfrak{S}_1 } (A) = \mu_{\mathfrak{S}_2 } (A) for any AS1S2A \in \mathfrak{S}_1 \cap \mathfrak{S}_2 . If any pair of measures of the family μΣ\mu_\Sigma is consistent, the family itself is referred to as consistent. The consistent family μΣ\mu_\Sigma is said to be extendable if there is a measure μ[Σ]\mu_{[\Sigma ]} on the measurable space [Σ],S\langle {[\Sigma ],S} \rangle consistent with each measure of μΣ\mu_\Sigma ([Σ][\Sigma ] is the smallest Borel field containing all SΣ\mathfrak{S} \in \Sigma ). For the purposes of the theory of games the following special case of extendability is important. Let K{\bf \mathfrak{K}} be a finite complete complex and M the set of its vertices. Let a finite set SaS_a correspond to each vertex a of K{\bf \mathfrak{K}} and the set SA=ΠαASαS_A = \Pi _{\alpha \in A} S_\alpha to each subset AMA \subset M. Let SK={XK:XK=YK×SMK,YKSK},KK; \mathfrak{S}_K = \left\{ {X_K :X_K = Y_K \times S_{M - K} ,\, Y_K \subset S_K } \right\},\quad K \in {\bf \mathfrak{K}};μK\mu _K is a measure on SK,SM\left\langle {\mathfrak{S}_K ,S_M } \right\rangle and μK\mu _{\bf \mathfrak{K}} is the family of all such measures. The extendability of the family μK\mu _{\bf \mathfrak{K}} is closely related with the combinatorial properties of the complex K{\bf \mathfrak{K}} . Any maximal face of the complex K{\bf \mathfrak{K}} is said to be an extreme face if it has proper vertices (i.e. such vertices which do not belong to any other maximal face of K{\bf \mathfrak{K}} ). If T is an extreme face of K{\bf \mathfrak{K}} the complex K{\bf \mathfrak{K}}^* obtained by removing from K{\bf \mathfrak{K}} all proper vertices of T with their stars is said to be a normal subcomplex of K{\bf \mathfrak{K}} . A complex K{\bf \mathfrak{K}} is said to be regular if there is a sequence K=K0K1Kn {\bf \mathfrak{K}} = {\bf \mathfrak{K}}_0 \supset {\bf \mathfrak{K}}_1 \supset \cdots \supset {\bf \mathfrak{K}}_n of subcomplexes of K{\bf \mathfrak{K}} where Ki{\bf \mathfrak{K}}_i is a normal subcomplex of Ki1,i=1,,n{\bf \mathfrak{K}}_{i - 1} ,i = 1, \cdots ,n, and the last member vanishes. The main results of the paper consists in the following statement. Theorem. The regularity of the complexK{\bf \mathfrak{K}}is a necessary and sufficient condition of extendability of any consistent family ofμK\mu_{\bf \mathfrak{K}}of measures.
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