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Agent-Based Model of Combined Community- and Jail-Based Take-Home Naloxone Distribution
Abstract
Importance
Opioid-related overdose accounts for almost 80 000 deaths annually across the US. People who use drugs leaving jails are at particularly high risk for opioid-related overdose and may benefit from take-home naloxone (THN) distribution.
Objective
To estimate the population impact of THN distribution at jail release to reverse opioid-related overdose among people with opioid use disorders.
Design, Setting, and Participants
This study developed the agent-based Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) to model a synthetic population of individuals with and without a history of opioid use. Epidemiological data from 2014 to 2020 for Cook County, Illinois, were used to identify parameters pertinent to the synthetic population. Twenty-seven experimental scenarios were examined to capture diverse strategies of THN distribution and use. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify critical mediating and moderating variables associated with population impact and a proxy metric for cost-effectiveness (ie, the direct costs of THN kits distributed per death averted). Data were analyzed between February 2022 and March 2024.
Intervention
Modeled interventions included 3 THN distribution channels: community facilities and practitioners; jail, at release; and social network or peers of persons released from jail.
Main Outcomes and Measures
The primary outcome was the percentage of opioid-related overdose deaths averted with THN in the modeled population relative to a baseline scenario with no intervention.
Results
Take-home naloxone distribution at jail release had the highest median (IQR) percentage of averted deaths at 11.70% (6.57%-15.75%). The probability of bystander presence at an opioid overdose showed the greatest proportional contribution (27.15%) to the variance in deaths averted in persons released from jail. The estimated costs of distributed THN kits were less than $15 000 per averted death in all 27 scenarios.
Conclusions and Relevance
This study found that THN distribution at jail release is an economical and feasible approach to substantially reducing opioid-related overdose mortality. Training and preparation of proficient and willing bystanders are central factors in reaching the full potential of this intervention.
Background:
Because existing publication guidelines and checklists have limitations when used to assess the quality of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), we developed a novel quality assessment tool for CEAs, differentiating methods and reporting quality and incorporating the relative importance of different quality attributes.
Methods:
We defined 15 quality domains from a scoping review and identified 72 methods and reporting quality attributes (36 each). After designing a best-worst scaling survey, we fielded an online survey to researchers and practitioners to estimate the relative importance of the attributes in February 2021. We analyzed the survey data using a sequential conditional logit model. The final tool included 48 quality attributes deemed most important for assessing methods and reporting quality (24 each), accompanied by a web-based scoring system.
Results:
524 participants completed the methodology section, and 372 completed both methodology and reporting sections. Quality attributes pertaining to the "Modeling" and "Data inputs and evidence synthesis" domains were deemed most important for methods quality, including "structure of the model reflects the underlying condition and intervention's impact" and "model validation is conducted." Quality attributes pertaining to "Modeling" and "Intervention/comparator(s)" domains were considered most important for reporting quality, including "model descriptions are detailed enough for replication." Despite its growing prominence, "Equity considerations" were not deemed as important as other quality attributes.
Conclusions:
The CHEQUE tool quantifies the relative importance of quality attributes and allows users to differentiate methods and reporting quality. Alongside other considerations, it could help assess and improve the quality of cost-effectiveness evidence to inform value-based decisions.
Importance:
Most prisons and jails in the US discontinue medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) upon incarceration and do not initiate MOUD prior to release.
Objective:
To model the association of MOUD access during incarceration and at release with population-level overdose mortality and OUD-related treatment costs in Massachusetts.
Design, setting, and participants:
This economic evaluation used simulation modeling and cost-effectiveness with costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) discounted at 3% to compare MOUD treatment strategies in a corrections cohort and an open cohort representing individuals with OUD in Massachusetts. Data were analyzed between July 1, 2021, and September 30, 2022.
Exposures:
Three strategies were compared: (1) no MOUD provided during incarceration or at release, (2) extended-release (XR) naltrexone offered only at release from incarceration, and (3) all 3 MOUDs (naltrexone, buprenorphine, and methadone) offered at intake.
Main outcomes and measures:
Treatment starts and retention, fatal overdoses, life-years and QALYs, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).
Results:
Among 30 000 simulated incarcerated individuals with OUD, offering no MOUD was associated with 40 927 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 39 001-42 082) MOUD treatment starts over a 5-year period and 1259 (95% UI, 1130-1323) overdose deaths after 5 years. Over 5 years, offering XR-naltrexone at release led to 10 466 (95% UI, 8515-12 201) additional treatment starts, 40 (95% UI, 16-50) fewer overdose deaths, and 0.08 (95% UI, 0.05-0.11) QALYs gained per person, at an incremental cost of 141-852 (95% UI, 1703) per person. Thus, XR-naltrexone only was a dominated strategy (both less effective and more costly) and the ICER of all 3 MOUDs compared with no MOUD was 140-$10 018) per QALY. Among everyone with OUD in Massachusetts, XR-naltrexone only averted 95 overdose deaths over 5 years (95% UI, 85-169)-a 0.9% decrease in state-level overdose mortality-while the all-MOUD strategy averted 192 overdose deaths (95% UI, 156-200)-a 1.8% decrease.
Conclusions and relevance:
The findings of this simulation-modeling economic study suggest that offering any MOUD to incarcerated individuals with OUD would prevent overdose deaths and that offering all 3 MOUDs would prevent more deaths and save money compared with an XR-naltrexone-only strategy.
Importance:
At least 500 000 people in the US experience homelessness nightly. More than 30% of people experiencing homelessness also have a substance use disorder. Involuntary displacement is a common practice in responding to unsheltered people experiencing homelessness. Understanding the health implications of displacement (eg, "sweeps," "clearings," "cleanups") is important, especially as they relate to key substance use disorder outcomes.
Objective:
To estimate the long-term health effects of involuntary displacement of people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in 23 US cities.
Design, setting, and participants:
A closed cohort microsimulation model that simulates the natural history of injection drug use and health outcomes among people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in 23 US cities. The model was populated with city-level data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance system and published data to make representative cohorts of people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in those cities.
Main outcomes and measures:
Projected outcomes included overdose mortality, serious injection-related infections and mortality related to serious injection-related infections, hospitalizations, initiations of medications for opioid use disorder, and life-years lived over a 10-year period for 2 scenarios: "no displacement" and "continual involuntary displacement." The population-attributable fraction of continual displacement to mortality was estimated among this population.
Results:
Models estimated between 974 and 2175 additional overdose deaths per 10 000 people experiencing homelessness at 10 years in scenarios in which people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs were continually involuntarily displaced compared with no displacement. Between 611 and 1360 additional people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs per 10 000 people were estimated to be hospitalized with continual involuntary displacement, and there will be an estimated 3140 to 8812 fewer initiations of medications for opioid use disorder per 10 000 people. Continual involuntary displacement may contribute to between 15.6% and 24.4% of additional deaths among unsheltered people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs over a 10-year period.
Conclusion and relevance:
Involuntary displacement of people experiencing homelessness may substantially increase drug-related morbidity and mortality. These findings have implications for the practice of involuntary displacement, as well as policies such as access to housing and supportive services, that could mitigate these harms.
Importance
In 2021, the state of Rhode Island distributed 10 000 additional naloxone kits compared with the prior year through partnerships with community-based organizations.
Objective
To compare various strategies to increase naloxone distribution through community-based programs in Rhode Island to identify one most effective and efficient strategy in preventing opioid overdose deaths (OODs).
Design, Setting, and Participants
In this decision analytical model study conducted from January 2016 to December 2022, a spatial microsimulation model with an integrated decision tree was developed and calibrated to compare the outcomes of alternative strategies for distributing 10 000 additional naloxone kits annually among all individuals at risk for opioid overdose in Rhode Island.
Interventions
Distribution of 10 000 additional naloxone kits annually, focusing on people who inject drugs, people who use illicit opioids and stimulants, individuals at various levels of risk for opioid overdose, or people who misuse prescription opioids vs no additional kits (status quo). Two expanded distribution implementation approaches were considered: one consistent with the current spatial distribution patterns for each distribution program type (supply-based approach) and one consistent with the current spatial distribution of individuals in each of the risk groups, assuming that programs could direct the additional kits to new geographic areas if required (demand-based approach).
Main Outcomes and Measures
Witnessed OODs, cost per OOD averted (efficiency), geospatial health inequality measured by the Theil index, and between-group variance for OOD rates.
Results
A total of 63 131 simulated individuals were estimated to be at risk for opioid overdose in Rhode Island based on current population data. With the supply-based approach, prioritizing additional naloxone kits to people who use illicit drugs averted more witnessed OODs by an estimated mean of 18.9% (95% simulation interval [SI], 13.1%-30.7%) annually. Expanded naloxone distribution using the demand-based approach and focusing on people who inject drugs had the best outcomes across all scenarios, averting an estimated mean of 25.3% (95% SI, 13.1%-37.6%) of witnessed OODs annually, at the lowest mean incremental cost of $27 312 per OOD averted. Other strategies were associated with fewer OODs averted at higher costs but showed similar patterns of improved outcomes and lower unit costs if kits could be reallocated to areas with greater need. The demand-based approach reduced geospatial inequality in OOD rates in all scenarios compared with the supply-based approach and status quo.
Conclusions and Relevance
In this decision analytical model study, variations in the effectiveness, efficiency, and health inequality of the different naloxone distribution expansion strategies and approaches were identified. Future efforts should be prioritized for people at highest risk for overdose (those who inject drugs or use illicit drugs) and redirected toward areas with the greatest need. These findings may inform future naloxone distribution priority settings.
Background
The increasing prevalence of highly potent, illicitly manufactured fentanyl and its analogues (IMF) in the USA is exacerbating the opioid epidemic which has worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. Narcan® (naloxone HCl) Nasal Spray has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration as a treatment for opioid-related overdoses. Due to the high potency of IMF, multiple naloxone administrations (MNA) may be needed per overdose event. It is essential to determine the patterns of naloxone use, including MNA, and preferences among bystanders who have used naloxone for opioid overdose reversal.
Methods
A cross-sectional web-based survey was administered to 125 adult US residents who administered 4 mg Narcan® Nasal Spray during an opioid overdose in the past year. The survey asked about the most recent overdose event, the use of Narcan® during the event and the associated withdrawal symptoms, and participant preferences regarding dosages of naloxone nasal spray. An open-ended voice survey was completed by 35 participants.
Results
Participants were mostly female (70%) and white (78%), while reported overdose events most frequently occurred in people who were males (54%) and white (86%). Most events (95%) were successfully reversed, with 78% using ≥ 2 doses and 30% using ≥ 3 doses of Narcan® Nasal Spray. Over 90% were worried that 1 Narcan® box may not be enough for a successful future reversal. Reported withdrawal symptoms were similar in overdose events where 1 versus ≥ 2 sprays were given. Eighty-six percent of participants reported more confidence in an 8 mg versus a 4 mg naloxone nasal spray and 77% reported a stronger preference for 8 mg over 4 mg.
Conclusions
MNA occurred in most overdose events, often involving more sprays than are provided in one Narcan® nasal spray box, and participants predominantly expressed having a stronger preference for and confidence in an 8 mg compared to a 4 mg nasal spray. This suggests the need and desire for a higher dose naloxone nasal spray formulation option. Given that bystanders may be the first to administer naloxone to someone experiencing an opioid overdose, ensuring access to an adequate naloxone supply is critical in addressing the opioid overdose epidemic.
Background:
Despite increased availability of take-home naloxone, many people who use opioids do so in unprotected contexts, with no other person who might administer naloxone present, increasing the likelihood that an overdose will result in death. Thus, there is a social nature to being "protected" from overdose mortality, which highlights the importance of identifying background factors that promote access to protective social networks among people who use opioids.
Methods:
We used respondent-driven sampling to recruit adults residing in New York City who reported recent (past 3-day) nonmedical opioid use (n = 575). Participants completed a baseline assessment that included past 30-day measures of substance use, overdose experiences, and number of "protected" opioid use events, defined as involving naloxone and the presence of another person who could administer it, as well as measures of network characteristics and social support. We used modified Poisson regression with robust variance to estimate unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Results:
66% of participants had ever been trained to administer naloxone, 18% had used it in the past three months, and 32% had experienced a recent overdose (past 30 days). During recent opioid use events, 64% reported never having naloxone and a person to administer present. This was more common among those: aged ≥ 50 years (PR: 1.18 (CI 1.03, 1.34); who identified as non-Hispanic Black (PR: 1.27 (CI 1.05, 1.53); experienced higher levels of stigma consciousness (PR: 1.13 (CI 1.00, 1.28); and with small social networks (< 5 persons) (APR: 1.14 (CI 0.98, 1.31). Having a recent overdose experience was associated with severe opioid use disorder (PR: 2.45 (CI 1.49, 4.04), suicidality (PR: 1.72 (CI 1.19, 2.49), depression (PR: 1.54 (CI 1.20, 1.98) and positive urinalysis result for benzodiazepines (PR: 1.56 (CI 1.23, 1.96), but not with network size.
Conclusions:
Results show considerable gaps in naloxone protection among people who use opioids, with more vulnerable and historically disadvantaged subpopulations less likely to be protected. Larger social networks of people who use opioids may be an important resource to curtail overdose mortality, but more effort is needed to harness the protective aspects of social networks.
Background
The US overdose crisis is driven by fentanyl, heroin, and prescription opioids. One evidence-based policy response has been to broaden naloxone distribution, but how much naloxone a community would need to reduce the incidence of fatal overdose is unclear. We aimed to estimate state-level US naloxone need in 2017 across three main naloxone access points (community-based programmes, provider prescription, and pharmacy-initiated distribution) and by dominant opioid epidemic type (fentanyl, heroin, and prescription opioid).
Methods
In this modelling study, we developed, parameterised, and applied a mechanistic model of risk of opioid overdose and used it to estimate the expected reduction in opioid overdose mortality after deployment of a given number of two-dose naloxone kits. We performed a literature review and used a modified-Delphi panel to inform parameter definitions. We refined an established model of the population at risk of overdose by incorporating changes in the toxicity of the illicit drug supply and in the naloxone access point, then calibrated the model to 2017 using data obtained from proprietary data sources, state health departments, and national surveys for 12 US states that were representative of each epidemic type. We used counterfactual modelling to project the effect of increased naloxone distribution on the estimated number of opioid overdose deaths averted with naloxone and the number of naloxone kits needed to be available for at least 80% of witnessed opioid overdoses, by US state and access point.
Findings
Need for naloxone differed by epidemic type, with fentanyl epidemics having the consistently highest probability of naloxone use during witnessed overdose events (range 58–76% across the three modelled states in this category) and prescription opioid-dominated epidemics having the lowest (range 0–20%). Overall, in 2017, community-based and pharmacy-initiated naloxone access points had higher probability of naloxone use in witnessed overdose and higher numbers of deaths averted per 100 000 people in state-specific results with these two access points than with provider-prescribed access only. To achieve a target of naloxone use in 80% of witnessed overdoses, need varied from no additional kits (estimated as sufficient) to 1270 kits needed per 100 000 population across the 12 modelled states annually. In 2017, only Arizona had sufficient kits to meet this target.
Interpretation
Opioid epidemic type and how naloxone is accessed have large effects on the number of naloxone kits that need to be distributed, the probability of naloxone use, and the number of deaths due to overdose averted. The extent of naloxone distribution, especially through community-based programmes and pharmacy-initiated access points, warrants substantial expansion in nearly every US state.
Funding
National Institute of Health, National Institute on Drug Abuse.
A lack of cost information has been cited as a barrier to implementation and a limitation of implementation research. This paper explains how implementation researchers might optimize their measurement and inclusion of costs, building on traditional economic evaluations comparing costs and effectiveness of health interventions. The objective of all economic evaluation is to inform decision-making for resource allocation and to measure costs that reflect opportunity costs—the value of resource inputs in their next best alternative use, which generally vary by decision-maker perspective(s) and time horizon(s). Analyses that examine different perspectives or time horizons must consider cost estimation accuracy, because over longer time horizons, all costs are variable; however, with shorter time horizons and narrower perspectives, one must differentiate the fixed and variable costs, with fixed costs generally excluded from the evaluation. This paper defines relevant costs, identifies sources of cost data, and discusses cost relevance to potential decision-makers contemplating or implementing evidence-based interventions. Costs may come from the healthcare sector, informal healthcare sector, patient, participant or caregiver, and other sectors such as housing, criminal justice, social services, and education. Finally, we define and consider the relevance of costs by phase of implementation and time horizon, including pre-implementation and planning, implementation, intervention, downstream, and adaptation, and through replication, sustainment, de-implementation, or spread.
Criminal justice involved (CJI) individuals with a history of opioid use disorder (OUD) are at high risk of overdose and death in the weeks following release from jail. We developed the Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) to investigate OUD/CJI dynamics post-release and the effects of interventions on overdose deaths. The JCCM uses a synthetic agent-based model population of approximately 150,000 unique individuals that is generated using demographic information collected from multiple Chicago-area studies and data sets. We use a high-performance computing (HPC) workflow to implement a sequential approximate Bayesian computation algorithm for calibrating the JCCM. The calibration results in the simulated joint posterior distribution of the JCCM input parameters. The calibrated model is used to investigate the effects of a naloxone intervention for a mass jail release. The simulation results show the degree to which a targeted intervention focusing on recently released jail inmates can help reduce the risk of death from opioid overdose.
Background
Implementation researchers have sought ways to use simulations to support the core components of implementation, which typically include assessing the need for change, designing implementation strategies, executing the strategies, and evaluating outcomes. The goal of this article is to explain how agent-based modeling could fulfill this role.
Methods
We describe agent-based modeling with respect to other simulation methods that have been used in implementation science, using non-technical language that is broadly accessible. We then provide a stepwise procedure for developing agent-based models of implementation processes. We use, as a case study to illustrate the procedure, the implementation of evidence-based smoking cessation practices for persons with serious mental illness (SMI) in community mental health clinics.
Results
For our case study, we present descriptions of the motivating research questions, specific models used to answer these questions, and a summary of the insights that can be obtained from the models. In the first example, we use a simple form of agent-based modeling to simulate the observed smoking behaviors of persons with SMI in a recently completed trial (IDEAL, Comprehensive Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Trial in Persons with SMI). In the second example, we illustrate how a more complex agent-based approach that includes interactions between patients, providers, and site administrators can be used to provide guidance for an implementation intervention that includes training and organizational strategies. This example is based in part on an ongoing project focused on scaling up evidence-based tobacco smoking cessation practices in community mental health clinics in Maryland.
Conclusion
In this article, we explain how agent-based models can be used to address implementation science research questions and provide a procedure for setting up simulation models. Through our examples, we show how what-if scenarios can be examined in the implementation process, which are particularly useful in implementation frameworks with adaptive components.
Plain Language Summary
The goal of this paper is to explain how agent-based modeling could be used as a supplementary tool to support the components of complex implementation processes. Such models have not yet been widely used in implementation science, partly because they are not straightforward to develop. To promote the use of agent-based modeling we provide a stepwise procedure using non-technical language and emphasizing the relationships between the model and implementation processes. We used two detailed examples to demonstrate our proposed approach. In the first example, we simulate the observed smoking behaviors of persons with serious mental illness in a recently completed trial (IDEAL, Comprehensive Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Trial in Persons with Serious Mental Illness). In the second example, we illustrate how agent-based models that include interactions between patients, providers and site administrators can be used to provide guidance for an implementation intervention that includes training and organizational strategies. This example is based in part on an ongoing project focused on scaling up evidence-based tobacco smoking cessation practices in community mental health clinics in Maryland. For this example, we show how the visual user interface of an agent-based model can be in the form of a dashboard with levers for simulating what-if scenarios that can be used to guide implementation decisions. In summary, this paper shows how agent-based models can provide insights into the processes in complex interventions, and guide implementation decisions for improving delivery of evidence-based practices in community mental health clinics.
Background
Implementation strategies are necessary to ensure that evidence-based practices are successfully incorporated into routine clinical practice. Such strategies, however, are frequently modified to fit local populations, settings, and contexts. While such modifications can be crucial to implementation success, the literature on documenting and evaluating them is virtually nonexistent. In this paper, we therefore describe the development of a new framework for documenting modifications to implementation strategies.
Discussion
We employed a multifaceted approach to developing the Framework for Reporting Adaptations and Modifications to Evidence-based Implementation Strategies (FRAME-IS), incorporating multiple stakeholder perspectives. Development steps included presentations of initial versions of the FRAME-IS to solicit structured feedback from individual implementation scientists (“think-aloud” exercises) and larger, international groups of researchers. The FRAME-IS includes core and supplementary modules to document modifications to implementation strategies: what is modified, the nature of the modification (including the relationship to core elements or functions), the primary goal and rationale for the modification, timing of the modification, participants in the modification decision-making process, and how widespread the modification is. We provide an example of application of the FRAME-IS to an implementation project and provide guidance on how it may be used in future work.
Conclusion
Increasing attention is being given to modifications to evidence-based practices, but little work has investigated modifications to the implementation strategies used to implement such practices. To fill this gap, the FRAME-IS is meant to be a flexible, practical tool for documenting modifications to implementation strategies. Its use may help illuminate the pivotal processes and mechanisms by which implementation strategies exert their effects.
Background
There is a high risk of death from opioid overdose following release from prison. Efforts to develop and implement overdose prevention programs for justice-involved populations have increased in recent years. An understanding of the gaps in knowledge on prevention interventions is needed to accelerate development, implementation, and dissemination of effective strategies.
Methods
A systematic search process identified 43 published papers addressing opioid overdose prevention in criminal justice settings or among justice-involved populations from 2010 to February 2020. Cross-cutting themes were identified, coded and qualitatively analyzed.
Results
Papers were coded into five categories: acceptability ( n = 8), accessibility ( n = 4), effectiveness ( n = 5), feasibility ( n = 7), and participant overdose risk ( n = 19). Common themes were: (1) Acceptability of naloxone is associated with injection drug use, overdose history, and perceived risk within the situational context; (2) Accessibility of naloxone is a function of the interface between corrections and community; (3) Evaluations of overdose prevention interventions are few, but generally show increases in knowledge or reductions in opioid overdose; (4) Coordinated efforts are needed to implement prevention interventions, address logistical challenges, and develop linkages between corrections and community providers; (5) Overdose is highest immediately following release from prison or jail, often preceded by service-system interactions, and associated with drug-use severity, injection use, and mental health disorders, as well as risks in the post-release environment.
Conclusion
Study findings can inform the development of overdose prevention interventions that target justice-involved individuals and policies to support their implementation across criminal justice and community-based service systems.
Background: Many people use opioids and are at risk of overdose. Naloxone is an opioid antagonist used to counter the effects of opioid overdose. There is an increased availability of naloxone in New York City; however, many who use opioids decline no-cost naloxone even when offered. Others may have the medication but opt not to carry it and report that they would be reluctant to administer it if they were to witness an overdose.
Hepatitis C (HCV) is a leading cause of chronic liver disease and mortality worldwide and persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at the highest risk for acquiring and transmitting HCV infection. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to identify and optimize direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy scale-up and treatment strategies for achieving the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of HCV elimination by the year 2030. While DAA is highly efficacious, it is also expensive, and therefore intervention strategies should balance the goals of elimination and the cost of the intervention. Here we present and compare two methods for finding PWID treatment enrollment strategies by conducting a standard model parameter sweep and compare the results to an evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm. The evolutionary approach provides a pareto-optimal set of solutions that minimizes treatment costs and incidence rates.
Background:
The consequences of substance use disorders (SUDs) are varied and broad, affecting many sectors of society and the economy. Economic evaluation translates these consequences into dollars to examine the net economic impact of interventions for SUD, and associated conditions such as HCV and HIV. The nexus between substance use and crime makes criminal justice outcomes particularly significant for estimating the economic impact of SUD interventions, and important for data harmonization.
Methods:
We compared baseline data collected in six NIDA-funded Seek, Test, Treat and Retain (STTR) intervention studies that enrolled HIV-infected/at-risk individuals with SUDs (total n = 3415). Criminal justice measures included contacts with the criminal justice system (e.g., arrests) and criminal offenses. The objective was to develop a list of recommended measures and methods supporting economic data harmonization opportunities in HIV and SUD research, with an initial focus on crime-related outcomes.
Results:
Criminal justice contacts and criminal offenses were highly variable across studies. When measures grouped by offense classifications were compared, consistencies across studies emerged. Most individuals report being arrested for property or public order crimes (> 50%); the most commonly reported offenses were prostitution/pimping, larceny/shoplifting, robbery, and household burglary.
Conclusions:
We identified four measures that are feasible and appropriate for estimating the economic consequences of SUDs/HIV/HCV: number of arrests, number of convictions, days of incarceration, and times committing criminal offenses, by type of offense. To account for extreme variation, grouping crimes by offense classification or calculating monthly averages per event allows for more meaningful comparisons across studies.
Background:
Illicit use of high-potency synthetic opioids has become a global issue over the past decade. This misuse is particularly pronounced in British Columbia, Canada, where a rapid increase in availability of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids in the local illicit drug supply during 2016 led to a substantial increase in overdoses and deaths. In response, distribution of take-home naloxone (THN) overdose prevention kits was scaled up (6·4-fold increase) throughout the province. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of the THN programme in terms of the number of deaths averted over the study period.
Methods:
We estimated the impact of THN kits on the ongoing epidemic among people who use illicit opioids in British Columbia and explored counterfactual scenarios for the provincial response. A Markov chain model was constructed explicitly including opioid-related deaths, fentanyl-related deaths, ambulance-attended overdoses, and uses of THN kits. The model was calibrated in a Bayesian framework incorporating population data between Jan 1, 2012, and Oct 31, 2016.
Findings:
22 499 ambulance-attended overdoses and 2121 illicit drug-related deaths (677 [32%] deaths related to fentanyl) were recorded in the study period, mostly since January, 2016. In the same period, 19 074 THN kits were distributed. We estimate that 298 deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 91–474) were averted by the THN programme. Of these deaths, 226 (95% CrI 125–340) were averted in 2016, following a rapid scale-up in distribution of kits. We infer a rapid increase in fentanyl adulterant at the beginning of 2016, with an estimated 2·3 times (95% CrI 2·0–2·9) increase from 2015 to 2016. Counterfactual modelling indicated that an earlier scale-up of the programme would have averted an additional 118 deaths (95% CrI 64–207). Our model also indicated that the increase in deaths could parsimoniously be explained through a change in the fentanyl-related overdose rate alone.
Interpretation:
The THN programme substantially reduced the number of overdose deaths during a period of rapid increase in the number of illicit drug overdoses due to fentanyl in British Columbia. However, earlier adoption and distribution of the THN intervention might have had an even greater impact on overdose deaths. Our findings show the value of a fast and effective response at the start of a synthetic opioid epidemic. We also believe that multiple interventions are needed to achieve an optimal impact.
Background:
Opioid overdose deaths in the US rose dramatically in the past 16 years, creating an urgent national health crisis with no signs of immediate relief. In 2017, the President of the US officially declared the opioid epidemic to be a national emergency and called for additional resources to respond to the crisis. Distributing naloxone to community laypersons and people at high risk for opioid overdose can prevent overdose death, but optimal distribution methods have not yet been pinpointed.
Methods:
We conducted a sequential exploratory mixed methods design using qualitative data to inform an agent-based model to improve understanding of effective community-based naloxone distribution to laypersons to reverse opioid overdose. The individuals in the model were endowed with cognitive and behavioral variables and accessed naloxone via community sites such as pharmacies, hospitals, and urgent-care centers. We compared overdose deaths over a simulated 6-month period while varying the number of distribution sites (0, 1, and 10) and number of kits given to individuals per visit (1 versus 10). Specifically, we ran thirty simulations for each of thirteen distribution models and report average overdose deaths for each. The baseline comparator was no naloxone distribution. Our simulations explored the effects of distribution through syringe exchange sites with and without secondary distribution, which refers to distribution of naloxone kits by laypersons within their social networks and enables ten additional laypersons to administer naloxone to reverse opioid overdose.
Results:
Our baseline model with no naloxone distribution predicted there would be 167.9 deaths in a six month period. A single distribution site, even with 10 kits picked up per visit, decreased overdose deaths by only 8.3% relative to baseline. However, adding secondary distribution through social networks to a single site resulted in 42.5% fewer overdose deaths relative to baseline. That is slightly higher than the 39.9% decrease associated with a tenfold increase in the number of sites, all distributing ten kits but with no secondary distribution. This suggests that, as long as multiple kits are picked up per visit, adding secondary distribution is at least as effective as increasing sites from one to ten. Combining the addition of secondary distribution with an increase in sites from one to ten resulted in a 61.1% drop in deaths relative to the baseline. Adding distribution through a syringe exchange site resulted in a drop of approximately 65% of deaths relative to baseline. In fact, when enabling distribution through a clean-syringe site, the secondary distribution through networks contributed no additional drops in deaths.
Conclusion:
Community-based naloxone distribution to reverse opioid overdose may significantly reduce deaths. Optimal distribution methods may include secondary distribution so that the person who picks up naloxone kits can enable others in the community to administer naloxone, as well as targeting naloxone distribution to sites where individuals at high-risk for opioid overdose death are likely to visit, such as syringe-exchange programs. This study design, which paired exploratory qualitative data with agent-based modeling, can be used in other settings seeking to implement and improve naloxone distribution programs.
Background and aims:
Fatal outcome of opioid overdose, once detected, is preventable through timely administration of the antidote naloxone. Take-home naloxone provision directly to opioid users for emergency use has been implemented recently in more than 15 countries worldwide, albeit mainly as pilot schemes and without formal evaluation. This systematic review assesses the effectiveness of take-home naloxone, with two specific aims: (1) to study the impact of take-home naloxone distribution on overdose-related mortality; and (2) to assess the safety of take-home naloxone in terms of adverse events.
Methods:
PubMed, MEDLINE and PsychINFO were searched for English-language peer-reviewed publications (randomized or observational trials) using the Boolean search query: (opioid OR opiate) AND overdose AND prevention. Evidence was evaluated using the nine Bradford Hill criteria for causation, devised to assess a potential causal relationship between public health interventions and clinical outcomes when only observational data are available.
Results:
A total of 1397 records (1164 after removal of duplicates) were retrieved, with 22 observational studies meeting eligibility criteria. Due to variability in size and quality of the included studies, meta-analysis was dismissed in favour of narrative synthesis. From eligible studies, we found take-home naloxone met all nine Bradford Hill criteria. The additional five World Health Organization criteria were all either met partially (two) or fully (three). Even with take-home naloxone administration, fatal outcome was reported in one in 123 overdose cases (0.8%; 95% confidence interval = 0.4, 1.2).
Conclusions:
Take-home naloxone programmes are found to reduce overdose mortality among programme participants and in the community and have a low rate of adverse events.
People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our studies highlight the importance of analyzing subpopulations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.
An overview of the population characteristics and population dynamics in the Cook County Illinois Jail in 2011.
People who inject drugs (PWID) have increased risk of morbidity and mortality. We update and present estimates and trends of the prevalence of current PWID and PWID subpopulations in 96 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 1992-2007. Current estimates of PWID and PWID subpopulations will help target services and help to understand long-term health trends among PWID populations.
We calculated the number of PWID in the US annually from 1992-2007 and apportioned estimates to MSAs using multiplier methods. We used four types of data indicating drug injection to allocate national annual totals to MSAs, creating four distinct series of component estimates of PWID in each MSA and year. The four component estimates are averaged to create the best estimate of PWID for each MSA and year. We estimated PWID prevalence rates for three subpopulations defined by gender, age, and race/ethnicity. We evaluated trends using multi-level polynomial models.
PWID per 10,000 persons aged 15-64 years varied across MSAs from 31 to 345 in 1992 (median 104.4) to 34 to 324 in 2007 (median 91.5). Trend analysis indicates that this rate declined during the early period and then was relatively stable in 2002-2007. Overall prevalence rates for non-Hispanic black PWID increased in 2005 as compared to other racial/ethnic groups. Hispanic prevalence, in contrast, declined across time. Importantly, results show a worrisome trend in young PWID prevalence since HAART was initiated - the mean prevalence was 90 to 100 per 10,000 youth in 1992-1996, but increased to >120 PWID per 10,000 youth in 2006-2007.
Overall, PWID rates remained constant since 2002, but increased for two subpopulations: non-Hispanic black PWID and young PWID. Estimates of PWID are important for planning and evaluating public health programs to reduce harm among PWID and for understanding related trends in social and health outcomes.
Noninjecting heroin users (NIHU) that were 16-30 years old were street recruited in Chicago between 2002 and 2005 to examine factors associated with having ever injected. Participants completed computerized self-administered interviews and provided specimens for HIV and hepatitis serotesting. Of 689 NIHU, 51.2% were non-Hispanic Black, 64.4% were male, and the median age was 25 years. Former injection was reported by 17.9%; of those, 66.7% injected <10 times. Multivariable analysis identified individual and social factors that place young NIHU at increased risk of injection. Targeted interventions are necessary to prevent transitions to injection and reduce transmission of HIV and viral hepatitis infections. The study's limitations are noted.
Importance
In 2023, more than 80 000 individuals died from an overdose involving opioids. With almost two-thirds of the US jail population experiencing a substance use disorder, jails present a key opportunity for providing lifesaving treatments, such as medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD).
Objectives
To examine the prevalence of MOUD in US jails and the association of jail- and county-level factors with MOUD prevalence using a national sample.
Design, Setting, and Participants
This survey study used a nationally representative cross-sectional survey querying 1028 jails from June 2022 to April 2023 on their provision of substance use disorder treatment services. The survey was conducted via mail, phone, and the internet. County-level data were linked to survey data, and binary logistic regressions were conducted to assess the probability that a jail offered any treatment and MOUD. A stratified random sample of 2791 jails identified by federal lists of all jails in the US was invited to participate. Staff members knowledgeable about substance use disorder services available in the jail completed the survey.
Exposures
US Census region, urbanicity, jail size, jail health care model (direct employees or contracted), county opioid overdose rate, county social vulnerability (measured using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2020 Social Vulnerability Index summary ranking, which ranks counties based on 16 social factors), and access to treatment in the county were assessed.
Main Outcomes and Measures
Availability of any type of substance use disorder treatment (eg, self-help meetings), availability of MOUD (ie, buprenorphine, methadone, and naltrexone) to at least some individuals, and availability of MOUD to any individual with an OUD were assessed.
Results
Of 2791 invited jails, 1028 jails participated (36.8% response rate). After merging the sample with county data, 927 jails were included in analysis, representative of 3157 jails nationally after weighting; most were from nonmetropolitan counties (1756 jails [55.6%; 95% CI, 52.3%-59.0%]) and had contracted health care services (1886 jails [59.7%; 95% CI, 56.5%-63.0%]); fewer than half of these jails (1383 jails [43.8%; 95% CI, 40.5%-47.1%]) offered MOUD to at least some individuals, and 405 jails (12.8%; 95% CI, 10.7% to 14.9%) offered MOUD to anyone with an OUD. Jails located in counties with lower social vulnerability (adjusted odds ratio per 1-percentile increase = 0.28; 95% CI, 0.19-0.40) and shorter mean distances to the nearest facility providing MOUD (adjusted odds ratio per 1-SD increase, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.72-0.88) were more likely to offer MOUD.
Conclusions and relevance
In this study, few jails indicated offering frontline treatments despite being well positioned to reach individuals with an OUD. These findings suggest that efforts and policies to increase MOUD availability in jails and the surrounding community may be associated with helping more individuals receive treatment.
Background
Fentanyl has replaced most other non-prescribed opioids in much of North America. There is controversy over whether a hypothetical reduced efficacy of naloxone in reversing fentanyl is a major contributor to the coincident rising overdose mortality.
Methods
We modified an existing Markov decision analytic model of heroin overdose and naloxone distribution to account for known risks of fentanyl by adjusting overdose risk, the likelihood of death in the event of overdose, and the proportion of cases in which available naloxone was administered in time to prevent death. We assumed near-universal survival when naloxone was administered promptly for heroin or fentanyl overdose, but allowed that to decline in sensitivity analyses for fentanyl. We varied the proportion of use that was fentanyl and adjusted the modified parameters accordingly to estimate mortality as the dominant opioid shifted.
Results
Absent naloxone, the annual overdose death rate was 1.0% and 4.1% for heroin and fentanyl, respectively. With naloxone reaching 80% of those at risk, the overdose death rate was 0.7% and 3.6% for heroin and fentanyl, respectively, representing reductions of 26.4% and 12.0%. Monte Carlo simulations resulted in overdose mortality with fentanyl of 3.3-5.2% without naloxone and 2.6-4.9% with naloxone, with 95% certainty. Positing reduced efficacy for naloxone in reversing fentanyl resulted in 3.6% of fentanyl overdose deaths being prevented by naloxone.
Conclusions
Heightened risk for overdose and subsequent death, alongside the time-sensitive need for naloxone administration, fully account for increased mortality when fentanyl replaces heroin, assuming optimal pharmacologic efficacy of naloxone.
Opioids have been shown to temporarily reduce the severity of pain when prescribed for medical purposes. However, opioid analgesics can also lead to severe adverse physical and psychological effects or even death through misuse, abuse, short- or long-term addiction, and one-time or recurrent overdose. Dynamic computational models and simulations can offer great potential to interpret the complex interaction of the drivers of the opioid crisis and assess intervention strategies. This study surveys existing studies of dynamic computational models and simulations addressing the opioid crisis and provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of dynamic computational models and simulations of the opioid crisis. This review gives a detailed analysis of existing modeling techniques, model conceptualization and formulation, and the policy interventions they suggest. It also explores the data sources they used and the study population they represented. Based on this analysis, direction and opportunities for future dynamic computational models for addressing the opioid crisis are suggested.
Background:
Naloxone is an opioid antagonist medication that can be administered by lay people or medical professionals to reverse opioid overdoses and reduce overdose mortality. Cost was identified as a potential barrier to providing expanded overdose education and naloxone distribution (OEND) in New York City (NYC) in 2017. We estimated the cost of delivering OEND for different types of opioid overdose prevention programs (OOPPs) in NYC. Methods: We interviewed naloxone coordinators at 11 syringe service programs (SSPs) and 10 purposively sampled non-SSPs in NYC from December 2017 to September 2019. The samples included diverse non-SSP program types, program sizes, and OEND funding sources. We calculated one-time start up costs and ongoing operating costs using micro-costing methods to estimate the cost of personnel time and materials for OEND activities from the program perspective, but excluding naloxone kit costs. Results: Implementing an OEND program required a one-time median startup cost of 2,548 for other programs excluding overhead, with 80% of those costs attributed to time and travel for training staff. SSPs spent a median of 150 per staff member. The median monthly cost of OEND program activities excluding overhead was 2,529 for non-SSPs. The costs for non-SSPs varied by size, with larger, multi-site programs having higher median costs compared to single-site programs. The estimated median cost per kit dispensed excluding and including overhead was 25 per kit for SSPs, and 43 per kit for non-SSPs, respectively. Conclusions: OEND operating costs vary by program type and number of sites. Funders should consider that providing free naloxone to OEND programs does not cover full operating costs. Further exploration of cost-effectiveness and program efficiency should be considered across different types of OEND settings.
Drug overdose is the leading cause of death among formerly incarcerated people. Distribution of the opioid overdose medication naloxone to people who use drugs reduces overdose mortality, and officials in many jurisdictions are now considering or implementing programs to offer naloxone to people exiting jails and prisons. The principles and practices of harm reduction programs such as naloxone distribution conflict with those of penal institutions, raising the question of how organizations based on opposing institutional logics can collaborate on lifesaving programs. Using in-depth interviews and observations conducted over four years with 34 penal, medical, public health, and harm reduction practitioners, we introduce and conceptualize two organizational features to explain why this therapeutic intervention was implemented in local jails in two of three California counties. First, interorganizational bridges between harm reduction, medical, and penal organizations facilitated mutual understanding and ongoing collaboration among administrators and frontline workers in different agencies. Second, respected and influential champions within public health and penal organizations put jail-based naloxone distribution on the local agenda and cultivated support among key officials. Our findings offer guidance for future studies of institutional logics and policy responses to the overdose crisis.
Background
12-step programs aim to address drug-related harms, like opioid overdose, via abstinence. However, abstaining from opioids can diminish tolerance, which increases risk for overdose death upon resumption. A recent study found that desire to abstain from drugs inhibited willingness to participate in take-home naloxone programming, which was linked to perceptions of harm reduction strategies being tied to drug use. In the present study, we uncovered a similar phenomenon occurring among newly-abstinent participants who were refusing to carry naloxone.
Methods
This study is an analysis of broader qualitative data collected throughout Southern California among persons who use opioids, including those recently abstinent. Preliminary analysis revealed that those newly abstinent refused to accept naloxone at the end of interviews, and so we began probing about this (N=44). We used thematic analysis and author positionality to explicate the emergent phenomenon and applied social identity theory to conceptualize findings.
Results
Mechanisms underlying naloxone refusal included its tie to a drug-using identity that newly-abstinent participants were attempting to retire. Carrying naloxone was also viewed as pointless due to doubt of witnessing an overdose again. Furthermore, the thought of being equipped with naloxone was not believed to be congruent with an abstinent identity, e.g. “me carrying it [naloxone] is making me feel like I'm going to be hanging out with people that are doing it [using drugs].”
Conclusion
Recent detoxification heightens vulnerability to overdose, which other newly-abstinent peers might be positioned to respond to as bonds are formed through 12-step identity formation. However, naloxone is often refused by this group due to perceived 12-step identity clash. While some treatment spaces distribute naloxone, 12-step identity associated behavioral expectations appear to conflict with this strategy. Reframing these disconnects is essential for expanding the lifesaving naloxone community safety net.
Background:
Globally, heroin and other opioids account for more than half of deaths and years-of-life-lost due to drug use and comprise one of the four major markets for illegal drugs. Having sound estimates of the number of problematic heroin users is fundamental to formulating sound health and criminal justice policies. Researchers and policymakers rely heavily upon general population surveys (GPS), such as the US National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), to estimate heroin use, without confronting their limitations. GPS-based estimates are also ubiquitous for cocaine and methamphetamine, so insights pertaining to GPS for estimating heroin use are also relevant for those drug markets.
Analysis:
Four sources of potential errors in NSDUH are assessed: selective non-response, small sample size, sampling frame omissions and under-reporting. An alternative estimate drawing on a variety of sources including a survey of adult male arrestees is presented and explained. Other approaches to prevalence estimation are discussed.
Findings:
Under-reporting and selective non-response in NSDUH are likely to lead to substantial underestimation. Small sample size leads to imprecise estimates and erratic year-to-year fluctuations. The alternative estimate provides credible evidence that NSDUH underestimates the number of frequent heroin users by at least three-quarters and perhaps much more.
Implications:
GPS, even those as strong as NSDUH, are doomed by their nature to estimate poorly a rare and stigmatized behavior concentrated in a hard-to-track population. Although many European nations avoid reliance upon these surveys, many others follow the US model. Better estimation requires models that draw upon a variety of data sources, including GPS, to provide credible estimates. Recent methodological developments in selected countries can provide guidance. Journals should require researchers to critically assess the soundness of GPS estimates for any stigmatized drug-related behaviors with low prevalence rates.
Background
We examined the impact of expanded access to medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) in a unified prison and jail system on post-release, opioid-related overdose mortality.
Methods
We developed a microsimulation model to simulate a population of 55,000 persons at risk of opioid-related overdose mortality in Rhode Island. The effect of an extended-release (XR) naltrexone only intervention and the effect of providing access to all three MOUD (i.e., methadone, buprenorphine, and XR-naltrexone) at release from incarceration on cumulative overdose death over eight years (2017–2024) were compared to the standard of care (i.e., limited access to MOUD).
Results
In the standard of care scenario, the model predicted 2385 opioid-related overdose deaths between 2017 and 2024. An XR-naltrexone intervention averted 103 deaths (4.3% reduction), and access to all three MOUD averted 139 deaths (5.8% reduction). Among those with prior year incarceration, an XR-naltrexone only intervention and access to all three MOUD reduced overdose deaths by 22.8% and 31.6%, respectively.
Conclusions
Expanded access to MOUD in prison and jail settings can reduce overdose mortality in a general, at-risk population. However, the real-world impact of this approach will vary by levels of incarceration, treatment enrollment, and post-release retention.
The province of British Columbia is currently experiencing the highest rate of apparent opioid-related deaths within Canada. This dramatic increase in overdose deaths has been primarily driven by the increase of fentanyl and fentanyl-analogues within the unregulated, highly unpredictable and toxic street drug supply. A public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016. After the emergency was declared, overdose-related death rates continued to rise, reaching unprecedented levels. In the context of enhanced collaboration between government organizations and researchers, a series of mathematical studies improved the ability of government and service providers to understand the impact of scaled-up strategies, including harm reduction and treatment services. In this commentary we describe how government agencies collaborated with researchers and other experts to use modelling results, and describe lessons learned for enhancing these collaborations. Mathematical modelling provides a viable and timely approach to the generation of intelligence, combining disparate data to assess the on-going impact of a comprehensive package of interventions during a public health emergency, and enhancing accountability for investments.
People leaving incarceration are at high risk of opioid-related overdose. Overdose fatalities are preventable with administration of naloxone. In response to this risk, overdose education and naloxone distribution (OEND) programs have been implemented in a handful of jails and prisons in the United States. We document the history, structure, and data from the San Francisco County Jail OEND program. During 4 years of operation, 637 people participated; 67% received naloxone upon release, of whom only 3.5% had been previously trained in community-based OEND programs. Of those who received naloxone, 32% reported reversing an overdose and 44% received refills from community-based programs after reentry. This confirms that implementation of OEND in criminal justice settings is feasible and reaches people who have not previously been trained as well as those willing to act as overdose responders.
Background & aims
The province of British Columbia (BC), Canada has experienced a rapid increase in illicit drug overdoses and deaths during the last four years, with a provincial emergency declared in April 2016. These deaths have been driven primarily by the introduction of synthetic opioids into the illicit opioid supply. This study aimed to measure the combined impact of large‐scale opioid overdose interventions implemented in BC between April 2016 and December 2017 on the number of deaths averted.
Design
We expanded on the mathematical modelling methodology of our previous study to construct a Bayesian hierarchical latent Markov process model to estimate monthly overdose and overdose‐death risk, along with the impact of interventions.
Setting/Cases
Overdose events and overdose‐related deaths in BC from January 2012 to December 2017.
Interventions
The interventions considered were take‐home naloxone kits, overdose prevention/supervised consumption sites and opioid agonist therapy
Measurements
Counterfactual simulations were performed with the fitted model to estimate the number of death events averted for each intervention, and in combination.
Findings
Between April 2016 and December 2017, BC observed 2177 overdose deaths (77% fentanyl‐detected). During the same period, an estimated 3 030 (2 900 – 3 240) death events were averted by all interventions combined. In isolation, 1 580 (1 480 – 1 740) were averted by take‐home naloxone, 230 (160 – 350) by overdose prevention services, and 590 (510 – 720) were averted by opioid agonist therapy.
Conclusions
A combined intervention approach has been effective in averting overdose deaths during British Columbia's opioid overdose crisis in the period since declaration of a public health emergency (April 2016 to December 2017). However, the absolute numbers of overdose deaths have not changed.
Background:
The Los Angeles County Jail system is the largest jail system in the United States, with an average daily inmate population of 17,024 in 2017. Existing literature shows the weeks following release from incarceration are associated with increased risk of overdose death among individuals who previously used opioids. One response is to train inmates in overdose prevention and response (OPR) and to provide the opioid antagonist naloxone on release. However, in large jail systems training all inmates can be logistically and financially difficult, leading to interest identifying individuals most likely to benefit from such programs.
Method:
In 2017, the Los Angeles County Office of Diversion and Reentry collaborated with the Los Angeles County Sheriff Department to conduct an OPR needs assessment evaluation with all inmates entering the jail over a two week period.
Results:
3781 inmates provided complete data for this analysis (3315 men, 466 women). 17% reported using opioids within the last 12 months, 7% reported witnessing an overdose within the last 12 months, and 5% report ever having received medication assisted treatment (MAT). 39% reported interest in being trained in overdose prevention and response. The single largest predictor of interest in OPR was being present at an overdose in the past year.
Conclusion:
Our results suggest OPR should be provided to all inmates who opt-in to receiving training regardless of other risk factors. Our results also suggest this population has had little prior exposure to MAT and incarceration could represent a significant opportunity to provide such evidence-based treatments.
Objectives:
To estimate health outcomes of policies to mitigate the opioid epidemic.
Methods:
We used dynamic compartmental modeling of US adults, in various pain, opioid use, and opioid addiction health states, to project addiction-related deaths, life years, and quality-adjusted life years from 2016 to 2025 for 11 policy responses to the opioid epidemic.
Results:
Over 5 years, increasing naloxone availability, promoting needle exchange, expanding medication-assisted addiction treatment, and increasing psychosocial treatment increased life years and quality-adjusted life years and reduced deaths. Other policies reduced opioid prescription supply and related deaths but led some addicted prescription users to switch to heroin use, which increased heroin-related deaths. Over a longer horizon, some such policies may avert enough new addiction to outweigh the harms. No single policy is likely to substantially reduce deaths over 5 to 10 years.
Conclusions:
Policies focused on services for addicted people improve population health without harming any groups. Policies that reduce the prescription opioid supply may increase heroin use and reduce quality of life in the short term, but in the long term could generate positive health benefits. A portfolio of interventions will be needed for eventual mitigation. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print August 23, 2018: e1-e7. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2018.304590).
Background:
Despite promising findings of opioid overdose education and naloxone distribution (OEND) programs, overdose continues to be a major cause of mortality. The "cascade of care" is a tool for identifying steps involved in achieving optimal health outcomes. We applied the cascade concept to identify gaps in naloxone use.
Methods:
Data came from a cross-sectional survey of 353 individuals aged 18 and older who self-reported lifetime history of heroin use.
Results:
The sample was majority male (65%) and reported use of heroin (74%) and injection (57%) in the past 6 months. Ninety percent had ever witnessed an overdose and of these 59% were in the prior year. Awareness of naloxone (90%) was high. Of those aware, over two-thirds reported having ever received (e.g. access) (69%) or been trained to use naloxone (60%). Of those who had ever received naloxone (n = 218) over one-third reported possession never (36%) or rarely/sometimes carrying naloxone (38%), while 26% reported always carrying. Nearly half of those who had ever received naloxone reported ever use to reverse an opiate overdose (45%). Among individuals who had ever received naloxone, possession often/always compared to never was associated with being female (RRR = 2.88, 95%CI = 1.31-6.27) and ever used naloxone during an overdose (RRR = 4.68, 95%CI = 2.00-11.0).
Conclusions:
This study identifies that consistent possession is a gap in the naloxone cascade. Future research is needed to understand reasons for not always carrying naloxone.
Objectives:
To examine differences in rates of opioid overdose death (OOD) between former North Carolina (NC) inmates and NC residents and evaluate factors associated with postrelease OOD.
Methods:
We linked NC inmate release data to NC death records, calculated OOD standardized mortality ratios to compare former inmates with NC residents, and calculated hazard ratios to identify predictors of time to OOD.
Results:
Of the 229 274 former inmates released during 2000 to 2015, 1329 died from OOD after release. At 2-weeks, 1-year, and complete follow-up after release, the respective OOD risk among former inmates was 40 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 30, 51), 11 (95% CI = 9.5, 12), and 8.3 (95% CI = 7.8, 8.7) times as high as general NC residents; the corresponding heroin overdose death risk among former inmates was 74 (95% CI = 43, 106), 18 (95% CI = 15, 21), and 14 (95% CI = 13, 16) times as high as general NC residents, respectively. Former inmates at greatest OOD risk were those within the first 2 weeks after release, aged 26 to 50 years, male, White, with more than 2 previous prison terms, and who received in-prison mental health and substance abuse treatment.
Conclusions:
Former inmates are highly vulnerable to opioids and need urgent prevention measures. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print July 19, 2018: e1-e7. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2018.304514).
Background:
High overdose mortality after release from state prison systems is well documented; however, little is known about overdose mortality following release from local criminal justice systems (CJS). The purpose of this study was to assess overdose mortality following release from a local CJS in Philadelphia, PA.
Methods:
We conducted a retrospective cohort study of individuals released to the community from a local CJS between 2010 and 2016. Incarceration records were linked to overdose fatality data from the Medical Examiner's Office and death certificate records. All-cause, overdose, and non-overdose mortality were examined.
Results:
Of the 82,780 individuals released between 2010 and 2016, 2,522 (3%) died from any cause, of which 837 (33%) succumbed to overdose. Individuals released from incarceration had higher risk of overdose death compared to the non-incarcerated population (Standardized Mortality Ratio [SMR]: 5.29, 95% CI 4.93-5.65), and risk was greatest during the first two weeks following release (SMR: 36.91, 95% CI: 29.92-43.90). Among released individuals, black, non-Hispanic individuals (Hazard Rate [HR]: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.14-0.19) and Hispanic individuals (HR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.34-0.50) were at lower risk for overdose than white, non-Hispanic individuals. Individuals released with a serious mental illness (SMI) were at higher risk of overdose (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.27-1.87) than those without a SMI.
Discussion:
Previously incarcerated individuals are at high risk of overdose death following release from a local CJS, especially in the earliest weeks following release. Prevention measures including behavioral health treatment and referral and take-home naloxone may reduce overdose mortality after release.
Background
People released from correctional settings are at an elevated risk of opioid overdose death in the weeks immediately following release. However, it is not well understood how this population, as a particularly high-risk group, is included in, and benefits from take-home naloxone (THN) programs. The objective of this review is to map research into THN for people released from correctional settings in order to identify further research needs.
Method
We searched electronic databases, grey literature, and conference abstracts for reports on THN for people in or released from correctional settings. Studies were categorised into themes defined by the study’s aims and focus. Results from each study were summarised by theme.
Results
We identified 19 studies reporting on THN programs for people released from correctional settings. Studies have examined attitudes towards naloxone among people in custody or recently released from custody (theme 1), and among non-prisoner stakeholders such as prison staff (theme 2). Evaluations and interventional studies (theme 3) have examined process indicators and approaches to naloxone training, including for contacts of prisoners, but there are challenges in assessing health outcomes of THN in the correctional context. Case reports suggest that training in correctional settings translates to action post-release (theme 4).
Conclusion
The feasibility of THN in the context of release from a correctional setting has been established, but there is a need for rigorous research into health outcomes and program implementation. This is an emerging field of study and ongoing assessment of the state of the literature and research needs is recommended.
Chinese translation
Among former prisoners, a high rate of death has been documented in the early postrelease period, particularly from drug-related causes. Little is known about risk factors and trends in postrelease mortality in the past decade, especially given general population increases in overdose deaths from pharmaceutical opioids.
To determine postrelease mortality between 1999 and 2009; cause-specific mortality rates; and whether sex, calendar year, and custody factors were risk factors for all-cause, overdose, and opioid-related deaths.
Cohort study.
Prison system of the Washington State Department of Corrections.
76 208 persons released from prison.
Identities were linked probabilistically to the National Death Index to identify deaths and causes of death, and mortality rates were calculated. Cox proportional hazards regression estimated the effect of age, sex, race or ethnicity, whether the incarceration resulted from a violation of terms of the person's community supervision, length of incarceration, release type, and calendar year on the hazard ratio (HR) for death.
The all-cause mortality rate was 737 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 708 to 766) (n = 2462 deaths). Opioids were involved in 14.8% of all deaths. Overdose was the leading cause of death (167 per 100 000 person-years [CI, 153 to 181]), and overdose deaths in former prisoners accounted for 8.3% of the overdose deaths among persons aged 15 to 84 years in Washington from 2000 to 2009. Women were at increased risk for overdose (HR, 1.38 [CI, 1.12 to 1.69]) and opioid-related deaths (HR, 1.39 [CI, 1.09 to 1.79]).
The study was done in only 1 state.
Innovation is needed to reduce the risk for overdose among former prisoners.
National Institute on Drug Abuse and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
Chinese translation
Opioid overdose is a leading cause of accidental death in the United States.
To estimate the cost-effectiveness of distributing naloxone, an opioid antagonist, to heroin users for use at witnessed overdoses.
Integrated Markov and decision analytic model using deterministic and probabilistic analyses and incorporating recurrent overdoses and a secondary analysis assuming heroin users are a net cost to society.
Published literature calibrated to epidemiologic data.
Hypothetical 21-year-old novice U.S. heroin user and more experienced users with scenario analyses.
Lifetime.
Societal.
Naloxone distribution for lay administration.
Overdose deaths prevented and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).
In the probabilistic analysis, 6% of overdose deaths were prevented with naloxone distribution; 1 death was prevented for every 227 naloxone kits distributed (95% CI, 71 to 716). Naloxone distribution increased costs by 3 to 438 (CI, 1706).
Naloxone distribution was cost-effective in all deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses, and it was cost-saving if it resulted in fewer overdoses or emergency medical service activations. In a "worst-case scenario" where overdose was rarely witnessed and naloxone was rarely used, minimally effective, and expensive, the ICER was 2429.
Limited sources of controlled data resulted in wide CIs.
Naloxone distribution to heroin users is likely to reduce overdose deaths and is cost-effective, even under markedly conservative assumptions.
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Variance based methods have assessed themselves as versatile and effective among the various available techniques for sensitivity analysis of model output. Practitioners can in principle describe the sensitivity pattern of a model Y=f(X1,X2,…,Xk) with k uncertain input factors via a full decomposition of the variance V of Y into terms depending on the factors and their interactions. More often practitioners are satisfied with computing just k first order effects and k total effects, the latter describing synthetically interactions among input factors. In sensitivity analysis a key concern is the computational cost of the analysis, defined in terms of number of evaluations of f(X1,X2,…,Xk) needed to complete the analysis, as f(X1,X2,…,Xk) is often in the form of a numerical model which may take long processing time. While the computational cost is relatively cheap and weakly dependent on k for estimating first order effects, it remains expensive and strictly k-dependent for total effect indices. In the present note we compare existing and new practices for this index and offer recommendations on which to use.
To examine whether needle exchange program (NEP) use by injecting drug users (IDUs) affects injection risk behaviors over time.
Between 1997 and 2000, 901 IDUs in Chicago were recruited for a cohort study from a multisite NEP and an area with no NEP. Participants were interviewed and tested for HIV at baseline and 3 annual follow-ups. Non-NEP users received HIV prevention services consistent with the Indigenous Leader Outreach Model. Random-effect logistic models were used to compare 5 injection-related risk behaviors between NEP users and nonusers.
The 30-day prevalence of receptive needle sharing decreased from 27.6% at baseline to 10.0% at visit 4 in NEP users and from 47.1% to 20.0% in nonusers. Similar patterns were observed for lending used needles, and NEP users were less likely to reuse their own needles. In multivariate analyses, NEP use was significantly associated with reduced odds of greater than 60% for receptive needle sharing, 45% for lending used needles, and 30% for sharing other injection paraphernalia as well as approximately a 2-fold increase in the odds of always bleaching used needles.
NEP use facilitates long-term reductions in injection risk practices, and the reductions are in addition to the effects of a behavioral intervention alone.
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