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Assessing regional variation of individual-tree diameter increment of Crimean pine and investigating interactive effect of competition and climate on this species

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Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
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Ferhat Bolat
Ferhat Bolat
Ferhat Bolat
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Abstract and Figures

Nowadays, many forests are intensely exposed to the adverse effects of climate change such as drought. To increase the resilience of the forests against climate change, prescribing appropriate silvicultural treatments is of great importance. At this point, closely scrutinizing the simultaneous effects of competition and climate on the forests has become a very important issue. In the present study, a climate-based individual-tree diameter increment model based on the Weibull growth equation was developed using the mixed-effects framework. The data were collected from naturally established and managed Crimean pine (Pinus nigra subsp. pallasiana (Lamb.) Holmboe) stands located in three separate climate regions, ranging from southwest to north of Türkiye. The measurements were conducted in a total of 108 randomly selected sample plots from these regions. The results of the current study showed that there were significant differences in the diameter increment between climate regions, ranging from 13 to 30%. The growing season total precipitation (GSTP) and the warmest month maximum temperature (WaTMax) were identified as significant climate variables in explaining the variation in the diameter increment. In addition, GSTP had a stronger effect on the diameter increment than WaTMax. The quantitative analysis demonstrated that a 10% decline in GSTP together with a 1 °C increase in WaTMax resulted in a considerable reduction in the diameter increment, varying from 10 to 25% depending on the competition levels. The proposed climate-based diameter increment model may be useful for the forest managers and practitioners to determine optimal thinning cycle under various climate change scenarios.
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Vol.: (0123456789)
Environ Monit Assess (2025) 197:24
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-13511-3
RESEARCH
Assessing regional variation ofindividual‑tree diameter
increment ofCrimean pine andinvestigating interactive
effect ofcompetition andclimate onthis species
FerhatBolat
Received: 22 August 2024 / Accepted: 30 November 2024 / Published online: 5 December 2024
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024
Abstract Nowadays, many forests are intensely
exposed to the adverse effects of climate change such
as drought. To increase the resilience of the forests
against climate change, prescribing appropriate sil-
vicultural treatments is of great importance. At this
point, closely scrutinizing the simultaneous effects of
competition and climate on the forests has become a
very important issue. In the present study, a climate-
based individual-tree diameter increment model
based on the Weibull growth equation was developed
using the mixed-effects framework. The data were
collected from naturally established and managed
Crimean pine (Pinus nigra subsp. pallasiana (Lamb.)
Holmboe) stands located in three separate climate
regions, ranging from southwest to north of Türkiye.
The measurements were conducted in a total of 108
randomly selected sample plots from these regions.
The results of the current study showed that there
were significant differences in the diameter increment
between climate regions, ranging from 13 to 30%.
The growing season total precipitation (GSTP) and
the warmest month maximum temperature (WaTMax)
were identified as significant climate variables in
explaining the variation in the diameter increment. In
addition, GSTP had a stronger effect on the diameter
increment than WaTMax. The quantitative analysis
demonstrated that a 10% decline in GSTP together
with a 1 °C increase in WaTMax resulted in a con-
siderable reduction in the diameter increment, vary-
ing from 10 to 25% depending on the competition
levels. The proposed climate-based diameter incre-
ment model may be useful for the forest managers
and practitioners to determine optimal thinning cycle
under various climate change scenarios.
Keywords Biophysical effect· Climate change·
Climate effect· Pinus nigra· Tree growth
Introduction
Black pine (Pinus nigra J.F. Arnold) stands consti-
tute approximately seventeen percent of forest areas
in Türkiye, Europe, and Balkans (Vacek etal., 2023).
This species has a significant ecological plasticity
that facilitates its adaptation to diverse habitats. This
is why it can be distributed across a wide geographi-
cal range, including Europe, Asia Minor, and North
Africa. Black pine is an essential financial resource
with respect to quality wood-based products. Mean-
while, it plays a key role in the fulfillment of ecosys-
tem services such as soil stabilization, carbon storage,
water purification, climate regulation, and recreation.
Black pine that was deliberately introduced into
various regions around the world showed a consider-
able expansion outside its natural areas (Vacek etal.,
2023). Thiel et al. (2012) hypothesized that Black
F.Bolat(*)
Department ofForest Engineering, Faculty ofForestry,
Çankırı Karatekin University, 18200Çankırı, Turkey
e-mail: fbolat@karatekin.edu.tr
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
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