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Sola , Sci. Adv. 10, eadu1262 (2024) 4 December 2024
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Pathways to concealed gun carrying
Justin Lucas Sola*
Understanding the distinction between adolescent and adult pathways to concealed gun carrying can inform in-
terventions to reduce gun violence.
Gun violence is a pressing issue in the United
States, claiming more lives than motor
vehicle accidents and, for the third con-
secutive year, standing as the leading
cause of death among children (1). This
“unrelenting epidemic” (2) resulted in
more than 45,000 deaths in both 2020
and 2021, with pronounced disparities
across race, age, and gender (3), costing
nearly $500 billion annually (4). Despite
a civilian stock of firearms exceeding
350 million (5), details on who carries gu ns—
legally or illegally—and why remain limited.
is gap in knowledge hampers the devel-
opment of effective policies and interven-
tions aimed at reducing gun violence and
its associated harms.
In this issue of Science Advances, Lanfear
et al.’s groundbreaking study addresses this
critical gap by examining how adolescents
and adults in Chicago, IL, dier in their con-
cealed gun carrying and use. Both groups are
predominantly male (6). Lanfear et al.’s nd-
ings are innovative because the authors show
robust dierences between adolescent- onset
carrying that is responsive to violence and
usually temporary, and adult- onset carry-
ing, which is less responsive to violence
and much more persistent. This distinc-
tion challenges existing paradigms and calls
for a reassessment of strategies targeting
gun violence.
While research oen centers on adoles-
cents, adults are increasingly involved in
handgun homicides. Over the past 25 years,
the median age of oenders has risen, re-
ecting changes in patterns of violence and
rearm use. Traditional focus on youth de-
linquency and gang- related activities may
overlook the growing signicance of adult-
onset gun carrying and use.
LEGAL LANDSCAPE CHANGES
e widespread shi toward “shall- issue” or
permit- free carry laws has altered the legal
context of gun carrying, potentially inuencing
age- related trends and making the distinc-
tion between legal and illegal carrying more
complex. As of 2023, more than half of US
states have adopted laws that make it easier
for individuals to carry concealed weapons
without a permit (6). This legal evolution
may contribute to changes in who carries
guns, at what age, and for what reasons.
Understanding these legal nuances is es-
sential for craing policies that eectively
address gun carrying behaviors. Lanfear
et al.’s study provides valuable insights into
how these legal changes intersect with indi-
vidual decisions to carry rearms, particu-
larly among adults.
KEY FINDINGS
Lanfear et al.’s study unveils distinct path-
ways in concealed gun carrying between ad-
olescents and adults, emphasizing that age
and exposure to violence aect patterns of
concealed carry (Fig. 1).
Adolescent pathway
Adolescents engage in illegal gun carrying,
which is oen age- limited and tends to dis-
continue as they transition into adulthood.
is behavior is typically short- lived and as-
sociated with specic developmental stages.
Witnessing or being a victim of gun violence
before the age of 15 doubles the likelihood of
adolescents carrying guns between ages 15
and 21 (6). Personal experiences with violence
create a perceived need for self- protection in
dangerous environments. Adolescents who
begin carrying are more likely to use guns
early; by the age of 21, 43% of adolescent-
onset carriers reported using a gun. If teens
had not used a gun by the age of 21, they did
not do so later. This pattern suggests that
adolescent gun carrying and use are reactive
responses to immediate threats and tend to
fade as circumstances change or as youths
age out of high- risk environments.
Adult pathway
In contrast, adults who begin carrying guns
tend to persist in this behavior, with many
obtaining permits. is ongoing behavior
reects a more stable and legally recognized
pattern of rearm possession. Factors such
as political polarization, the COVID- 19 pan-
demic, and social unrest signicantly inu-
ence adults deciding to carry guns, heighte ning
perceptions of insecurity and motivating in-
dividuals to arm themselves against gener-
alized threats. Unlike adolescents, adult ca rrie rs
are less likely to have started carrying due to
personal experiences with gun violence; ex-
posure to gun violence through the age of
21 is not statistically associated with adult-
onset carrying between ages 21 and 34. Adult-
onset carriers have lower year- to- year risks
of gun use compared to adolescent- onset
carriers. However, over time, their cumu-
lative risk of gun use approaches that of
adolescent- onset carriers. By the age of 40,
approximately 35.7% of adult- onset carriers
have used a gun, nearly matching the rate
among adolescent- onset carriers. is sug-
gests that while adult carriers may start with
lower immediate risks, persistent concealed
carrying gradually increases the likelihood of
gun use over time.
Intervention strategies
Recognizing the dual pathways of gun car-
rying is essential for developing effective
strategies to reduce gun violence. Strategies
must be tailored to address the distinct fac-
tors inuencing adolescents and adults.
Department of Sociology and School of Data Science and Society, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,
Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
*Corresponding author. Email: jlsola@ unc. edu
Copyright © 2024 The
Authors, some rights
reserved; exclusive
licensee American
Association for the
Advancement of
Science. No claim to
original U.S.
Government Works.
Distributed under a
Creative Commons
Attribution
NonCommercial
License 4.0 (CC BY- NC).
Sola , Sci. Adv. 10, eadu1262 (2024) 4 December 2024
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For adolescents, interventions should
focus on reducing direct exposure to vio-
lence and addressing immediate environ-
mental threats. Implementing community
programs aimed at violence prevention—
such as aer- school activities, mentorship
programs, and conict resolution training—
may mitigate factors that lead adolescents
to carry guns by providing safe environ-
ments and alternatives. Enhancing neighbor-
hood safety through policies that increase
community trust in police and the creation
of safe communal spaces can reduce the
perceived need for self-protection, making
adolescents less inclined to carry guns. In
addition, providing support services for
at-risk youth—including access to mental
health services, educational support, and job
training—can divert youth from delinquency
by oering alternative pathways.
For adults, strategies should consider
broader societal inuences and address the
factors that contribute to persistent gun car-
rying. Acknowledging how macro- historical
events such as political polarization, pandem-
ics, and social unrest aect adults’ decisions
to carry guns is essential. Public messaging
and community engagement can address fears
and perceptions of insecurity. Evaluating the
eectiveness of current permitting processes
and considering reforms that promote re-
sponsible gun ownership—such as ensuring
comprehensive background checks, red ag
laws, and training—can enhance public safety
without infringing on rights. Promoting safe
gun ownership practices through training and
education programs that emphasize the re-
sponsibilities associated with gun ownership,
including safe storage campaigns and work-
shops on conict de- escalation, can further
reduce the likelihood of gun use and miti-
gate the risks of gun ownership.
By tailoring interventions to the specic
needs and motivations of each group, poli-
cymakers and community leaders can more
eectively reduce gun carrying and its asso-
ciated harms across dierent stages of life.
IMPACTING THE FUTURE
e research community can build on the
groundbreaking work by Lanfear et al. by
crossing disciplinary boundaries to validate
these dierent pathways in other metro areas
aicted with gun violence and by develop-
ing other interdisciplinary, meso- level mod-
els of important gun outcomes.
Validation in other contexts
Chicago, as the authors point out, is an em-
blematic American city and is not unique in
its struggles to address gun violence. e lon-
gitudinal data that Lanfear et al. bring to bear
on this question is superb—but that does not
mean it is inimitable. To the contrary, this arti-
cle is a call to action for scholars and funding
bodies to invest in longitudinal research in other
metro areas—such as Southern California, th e
Eastern seaboard, and gulf cities like New
Orleans—that will enable scholars to conrm
that these pathways are general. is step will
help scholars and policymakers rene their
approach to gun violence at local, state, and
federal levels.
Interdisciplinary models
Meso- level models link macro- level struc-
tural conditions—such as geographies of
poverty, racism, and gun violence—to out-
comes of interest, like concealed carry in
this article, which involve micro- level agen-
cy. Public policy scholars must work with
criminologists and sociologists to help re-
searchers and the public meet the challenge
of understanding American gun ownership
and gun violence. While respecting consti-
tutional rights is paramount, it is equally
important to consider the collective respon-
sibility of fostering and ensuring commu-
nity safety.
How can we, as a society, address the un-
derlying factors that lead individuals to feel
the need to carry firearms? This question
originated with omas Hobbes, who asked
readers in 1651 to consider “what opinion
he has of his fellow subjects, when he rides
armed” (7). Lanfear et al.’s work suggests
several research opportunities for scholars
to continue to engage this question.
ll
l
lll
l
l
l
l
l
l
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Fig. 1. The dual pathways of concealed gun carrying from adolescence into adulthood emphasize the importance of direct exposure for adolescent carry and
the persistent nature of adult- onset carr y inuenced by broader societal factors. Illustration credit: Austin Fisher/Science Advances.
Sola , Sci. Adv. 10, eadu1262 (2024) 4 December 2024
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Gun storage practices
Researchers must also study the variation
and trajectory of gun storage. Locking up
guns is one of the most eective forms of
gun harm mitigation regulation by reducing
accidental shootings and suicides, particu-
larly among children (8). Greater adherence
may reduce the approximately 500,000 guns
that are stolen every year (9). Americans,
whether pro- gun or not, prefer their own
neighbors to store guns securely (10). Can
Americans be persuaded to balance their con-
stitutional right to arms with the proven harm
mitigation of safer storage practices?
Qualitative research
Scholars must extend Lanfear et al. with
qualitative and mixed methods research on
the paths by which individuals are socialized
into gun carry. Process tracing and life course
perspectives [see (11)] may reveal other struc-
tural forces and community factors that aect
individual decision-maki ng ab out conc eale d
gun carrying and may hold the key to
understanding how to limit or stop peo-
ple from gun carrying altogether. Like the
age- crime curve, do most men who cease
carrying do so in conjunction with im-
portant life transitions, such as employment,
marriage, and fatherhood? Or does adult- onset
concealed carry persist despite these events, as
Lanfear et al.’s work may suggest?
Moving forward
Recognizing the dual pathways of gun carry-
ing is essential for developing eective strat-
egies to reduce gun violence. By tailoring
interventions to the distinct needs of adoles-
cents and adults, policymakers and researchers
can make meaningful progress. Lanfear et al.
inspire us to attend to the critical decisions
Americans make every day about guns: deci-
sions to purchase, to sell, to carry, to use, to
lock up, and to part with guns.
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