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Declining Marriage Rates and The Collapse of Household Savings 1980–2014

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Maude Pugliese at National Institute of Scientific Research
Maude Pugliese
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The aggregate household saving rate has declined in many nations since the 1980s, partly due to increased borrowing. To explain this puzzling trend, previous scholarship has focused on precarity, welfare state retrenchment, and financial development. Building on research describing marriage’s significance in shaping the capacity and the motivation to accumulate assets, my main contribution in this paper is to theorize that the retreat from this institution was another factor behind the dwindling of aggregate household savings. I also empirically explore this hypothesis using country-year macro data from 19 OECD countries between 1980 and 2014. After controlling for several of the major factors previous research shows contribute to the decline of savings, including interest rates and asset price growth, I find additional effects of declining marriage rates. I estimate that this factor explains between 14 and 32% of the fall in household savings. My argument and results do not suggest promoting marriage to bolster savings. Instead, they invite research on the precautionary strategies of unmarried people, how they may disrupt the role of private savings in contemporary economies, and how policies can adapt to support savings among diverse families. Importantly, this paper also calls for attention to the macroeconomic implications of family change, which remain understudied owing to the enduring traction of the “hostile worlds” view of the economy and intimacy.
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Vol.:(0123456789)
https://doi.org/10.1007/s42650-024-00086-0
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Declining Marriage Rates andThe Collapse ofHousehold
Savings 1980–2014
MaudePugliese1
Received: 10 May 2024 / Accepted: 30 October 2024
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024
Abstract
The aggregate household saving rate has declined in many nations since the 1980s,
partly due to increased borrowing. To explain this puzzling trend, previous schol-
arship has focused on precarity, welfare state retrenchment, and financial develop-
ment. Building on research describing marriage’s significance in shaping the capac-
ity and the motivation to accumulate assets, my main contribution in this paper is to
theorize that the retreat from this institution was another factor behind the dwindling
of aggregate household savings. I also empirically explore this hypothesis using
country-year macro data from 19 OECD countries between 1980 and 2014. After
controlling for several of the major factors previous research shows contribute to
the decline of savings, including interest rates and asset price growth, I find addi-
tional effects of declining marriage rates. I estimate that this factorexplains between
14 and 32% of the fall in household savings. My argument and results do not sug-
gest promoting marriage to bolster savings. Instead, they invite research on the pre-
cautionary strategies of unmarried people, how they may disrupt the role of private
savings in contemporary economies, and how policies can adapt to support savings
among diverse families. Importantly, this paper also calls for attention to the macro-
economic implications of family change, which remain understudied owing to the
enduring traction of the “hostile worlds” view of the economy and intimacy.
Keywords Marriage decline· Net household saving rate· Singlehood· Cohabitation
Résumé
Depuis les années 1980, le taux global d’épargne des ménages a diminué en Amé-
rique du Nord ainsi qu’au sein de plusieurs nations européennes, notamment en
raison de l’augmentation des emprunts. Pour expliquer cette tendance surprenante,
plusieurs travaux académiques antérieurs se sont intéressés à la précarité, à la réduc-
tion des dépenses sociales et au développement de la finance. En m’appuyant sur
les recherches analysant le rôle du mariage sur l’accumulation d’actifs, la principale
* Maude Pugliese
maude.pugliese@inrs.ca
1 Institut national de la recherche scientifique, Montreal, Canada
Canadian Studies in Population (2024) 51:8
/ Published online: 26 November 2024
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
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