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The Psychology of Life’s Most Important Decisions

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Abstract

Research on judgment and decision making typically studies “small worlds”—highly simplified and stylized tasks such as monetary gambles—among homogenous populations rather than big real-life decisions made by people around the globe. These transformative life decisions (e.g., whether or not to emigrate or flee a country, disclose one’s sexual orientation, get divorced, or report a sexual assault) can shape lives. This article argues that rather than reducing such consequential decisions to fit small-world models, researchers need to analyze their real-world properties. Drawing on principles of bounded and ecological rationality, it proposes a framework that identifies five dimensions of transformative life decisions: conflicting cues, change of self, uncertain experiential value, irreversibility, and risk. The framework also specifies simple, versatile choice strategies that address these dimensions by, for instance, breaking down a decision into steps, avoiding trade-offs between present and future selves, or sampling others’ experiences. Finally, it suggests benchmarks for assessing the rationality of transformative life decisions. Methodologically, this framework adapts a long tradition of mainly lab-based judgment and decision-making research to a text-based approach, thereby setting the stage for empirical work that analyzes real-world decisions using natural-language processing. Only by understanding decisions with the potential to transform life trajectories—and people in the process—will it be possible to develop encompassing and inclusive theories of human decision making.
American Psychologist
The Psychology of Life’s Most Important Decisions
Shahar Hechtlinger, Christin Schulze, Christina Leuker, and Ralph Hertwig
Online First Publication, November 14, 2024. https://dx.doi.org/10.1037/amp0001439
CITATION
Hechtlinger, S., Schulze, C., Leuker, C., & Hertwig, R. (2024). The psychology of life’s most important
decisions. American Psychologist. Advance online publication. https://dx.doi.org/10.1037/amp0001439
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