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ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHT IN AHMEDNAGAR DISTRICT USING
PRECIPITATION DECILE INDEX (PD)
Sapana K. Rahase1, Sujeet S. Deshmukh1*, Omkar D. Rajmane1 and Ranjeet S. Deshmukh2
1Department of Agricultural Meteorology, College of Agriculture, Pune, MPKV, Rahuri, Maharashtra, India.
2Department of Agricultural Entomology, CoA, Pune (M.P.K.V. Rahuri), Maharashtra, India.
*Corresponding author E-mail : sujeetdeshmukh99@gmail.com
(Date of Receiving-13-04-2024; Date of Acceptance- 01-07-2024)
Long term data about weather parameters are found to be useful to predict and mitigate natural disaster such
as drought in any region, so that appropriate mitigation practices can be followed to minimize the losses. For
assessment of drought condition Precipitation Decile (PD) is one of the indices used to predict drought
condition in region ondecadal basis. The present study target to assess drought condition by using
precipitation decile (PD) on decadal scale for Ahmednagar district of Maharashtra by using daily rainfall
data collected from India meteorological department and Dept. of Agricultural meteorology Pune. Results
from analysis showed that year 1972 and 2018 was the year of severe drought condition
Key words : Drought, Precipitation Decile (PD), PD value, Decades.
Plant Archives Vol. 24, No. 2, 2024 pp. 1587-1595 e-ISSN:2581-6063 (online), ISSN:0972-5210
Plant Archives
Journal homepage: http://www.plantarchives.org
DOI Url : https://doi.org/10.51470/PLANTARCHIVES.2024.v24.no .2.224
ABSTRACT
Introduction
Drought is a recurring natural phenomenon; its
occurrence can be determined by studying past
occurrences of the event and its frequency. The severity
of the drought is determined by a variety of factors such
as rainfall variation, rainfall deficiency, the length of the
dry spell, the population of the affected area and the
availability of irrigation and other drought-proofing
facilities. The effect of drought on crops leads to many
consequences like low production, food scarcity,
malnutrition, nutrient deficiency, economic degradation,
forced migration and the loss of lives, which can turn into
social and economic conflicts.
There is need to measure such drought conditions
and its effect, there are some indices which are used for
this purpose. Indices are indicators that are used to
determine certain conditions quantitatively as well as
qualitatively. Indices are indicators that are used to
determine certain conditions quantitatively as well as
qualitatively. Drought can be determined using various
indicators, which help to indicate drought conditions
regarding geographical area, time of occurrence, duration,
etc. From the various indices which are used for drought
monitoring, Precipitation Decile is one of the indices used
world over, for this research work Precipitation Decile
index is used to characterize drought in Ahmednagar
district of Maharashtra.
Materials and Methods
Study area
Ahmednagar district is a district of Maharashtra state
in west-central India. It is situated between the latitude
19º09’N and longitudinal of 74º74’East.There are 14
tehsils in Ahmednagar district viz, (1) Ahmednagar (2)
Akole (3) Jamkhed (4) Karjat (5) Kopergaon (6) Newasa
(7) Parner (8) Pathardi (9) Rahata (10) Rahuri (11)
Sangamner (12) Shevgaon (13) Shrigonda and (14)
Shrirampur.
Climate and rainfall
The climate of the Ahmednagar district is hot and
dry. During the year there is little rainfall. June to
September are the months of the rainy season. The district
receives rain mostly from the South-West monsoons. The
rainfall in the western part of the district near the Western
1588 Sapana K. Rahase et al.
Ghats is higher than in the rest of the district. The rainfall
is comparatively less as we go from the Western Ghats
to the eastern part of the district.
Data Acquisition
The daily rainfall data of all tahsils in Ahmednagar
district was collected from
1. Department of Agricultural Meteorology, College
of Agriculture, Pune
2. India Meteorological Department, Pune
3. Downloaded from www.maharain.gov.in
(www.krishi.maharashtra.gov.in) from January
to December. Rain gauges are located at the
headquarters of tahsils.
Collected data was used for analysis of Precipitation
Decile Index (PD).
Software used for study
The Drin C (drought indices calculator) software
developed at National Technical University of Athens
was used for analysis of drought using Precipitation
Deciles Index.
Statistical characteristics of Climatological data
The statistical behaviour or characteristics of series
of any climatological variables can be described on the
basis of several parameters. These parameters are mean,
standard deviation, coefficient of variation. All these
parameters were used to describe the variability of
climatological variables (rainfall) in this study. The
statistical characteristics of rainfall of stations will be
determined on a weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual
basis viz; Ahmednagar, Akole, Jamkhed, Karjat,
Kopergaon, Newasa, Parner, Pathardi, Rahata, Rahuri,
Sangamner, Shevgaon, Shrigonda and Shrirampur.
(www.maharain.gov.in).
Mean
Mean represents the measure of central tendency.
It is the average of given values and given by,
n
X
X
n
i
i
1
Where,
X = Mean
i =Variables
n = Total number of variables
Fig. 1 : Map of Tehsils of Ahmednagar district.
Table 1 : The location of rain gauge station, Geographical area, location and availability of data.
S. no. Name of tehsils Geographical Latitude Longitude Period No. of
area (Km2) of year years
1 Ahmednagar 1605.74 19.09ºN 73.74ºE 1961-2021 61
2 Akole 1505.08 19.85ºN 74.0ºE 1961-2021 61
3 Jamkhed 878.62 19.69ºN 73.56ºE 1961-2021 61
4 Karjat 1503.61 19.56ºN 73.32ºE 1961-2021 61
5 Kopergaon 725.16 20.08ºN 74.11ºE 1961-2021 61
6 Newasa 1343.43 20.04ºN 74.48ºE 1961-2021 61
7 Parner 1930.28 18.93ºN 73.92ºE 1961-2021 61
8 Pathardi 1214.1 20.20ºN 73.83ºE 1961-2021 61
9 Rahata 759.19 20.32ºN 74.25ºE 1998-2021 24
10 Rahuri 1035.11 20.58ºN 74.22ºE 1961-2021 61
11 Sangamner 1705.06 20.46ºN 74.18ºE 1961-2021 61
12 Shevgaon 1031.85 20.47ºN 74.02ºE 1998-2021 24
13 Shrigonda 1605.61 20.54ºN 74.32ºE 1961-2021 61
14 Shrirampur 569.87 20.30ºN 74.65ºE 1961-2021 61
Assessment of Drought in Ahmednagar District using Precipitation Decile Index 1589
Standard deviation
Standard deviation is the best measure of dispersion.
It gives more weight to extreme items and less to those
which are near the mean. It is defined as the positive
square root of the arithmetic mean of the squares of the
deviations of the given values from the arithmetic mean.
1
2
n
xxi
Where,
= Standard deviation
Xi= Variables
X = Mean
n = Total number of variables
Coefficient of variation
The coefficient of variation is the percentage of
variation in the mean, the standard deviation being treated
as the total variation in the mean. The coefficient of
variation (CV) is a statistical measure of how the
individual data points vary about the mean value.
CV =
x
100
Where,
CV = Coefficient of variation
X = Mean
= Standard deviation
This measure is indicative of dependability of variable
expressed in percentage. The threshold levels for CV
for any interpretation are <25, <50, <100, <150 and
<250% for yearly, seasonal, monthly, weekly and daily
rainfall, respectively (Manorama et al., 2007).
Methodology
Meteorological drought by Precipitation Decile
Indices
Meteorological drought was analyzed by using
Precipitation Decile Index (PD) for Ahmednagar district.
Precipitation deciles
One of the simplest meteorological drought indices
is the Precipitation Deciles which was introduced by Gibbs
and Maher (1967). The precipitation totals for the
preceding three months are ranked against climatological
records and if the sum falls within the lowest decile of
the historical distribution of 3-month totals, then the region
is considered to be under drought conditions (Kininmonth
et al., 2000). The drought ends when:
i. The precipitation measured during the past month
already places the 3-month total in or above the
fourth decile.
ii. The precipitation total for the past three months
is in or above the eighth decile.
The advantage of the method of deciles is its
computational ease, but its simplicity can lead to
conceptual difficulties. The deciles are grouped into five
classes as presented in Table 2.
Results and Discussion
A decile is a meteorological drought measurement
tool that uses rainfall. The threshold ranges of Deciles
used to define drought conditionsin this study given in
Table 2. Deciles 1-2 and Deciles 3-4 were considered
drought events. The advantage of the method of Deciles
is its computational ease. The precipitation deciles for
different tehsils of Ahmednagar district are calculated
and the results are discussed below.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Ahmednagar Tehsil
For the calculation of the precipitation decile of
Ahmednagar tehsil, rainfall data for 61 years (1961-2021)
was used. Historical drought events were identified that
fall under Deciles 1-2 and 3-4. From Table 3, it was
observed that there were 24 drought events in the period
of 1961–2021. A much below normal (Deciles 1-2)
condition was observed for 12 years (1966, 1972,1977,
1980, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1987, 2002, 2003, 2011, 2012,
2018) and much above normal (Deciles 9-10) condition
was observed for 12 years (1974, 1975, 1983, 1988, 1990,
1991, 1997, 1998, 2006, 2010 and 2020) same was
depicted in Fig. 2.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Akole Tehsil
For the calculation of the precipitation decile of Akole
tehsil, rainfall data for 61 years (1961-2021) was used.
Historical drought events were identified that fall under
deciles 1-2 and 3-4. From Table 3, it was observed that
there were 24 drought events in the period of 1961–2021.
A much below normal (Deciles1-2) condition was
observed for 12 years (1963, 1966, 1972, 1977, 1978,
1980, 1982, 1984, 1987, 1989, 1992 and 1997) and much
Table 2 : Classification of drought conditions according to
deciles.
Decile Class Description
Deciles 1-2: lowest 20% Much below normal
Deciles 3-4: next lowest20% Below normal
Deciles 5-6: middle 20% Near normal
Deciles 7-8: next highest 20% Above normal
Deciles 9-10: highest 20% Much above normal
1590 Sapana K. Rahase et al.
above normal (Deciles 9-10) condition was observed for
12 years (2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2013, 2015,
2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019)same was depicted in Fig. 3.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Jamkhed Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Jamkhed tehsil,
rainfall data for 61 years (1961-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under deciles 1-2
and 3-4. From Table 3, it is observed that there were 24
drought events in the period of 1961–2021. A much below
normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for 12 years
(1965, 1972, 1976, 1981, 1982, 1987, 1994, 2001, 2002,
2012, 2015 and 2018) and much above normal (Deciles
9-10) condition was observed for 12 years (1975, 1979,
1983, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1993, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2006 and
2020)same was depicted in Fig. 4.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Karjat Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Karjat tehsil, rainfall
data for 61 years (1961-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under Deciles 1-
2 and 3-4. From Table 3, it was observed that there were
24 drought events in the period of 1961–2021. A much
below normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for
12 years (1966, 1972, 1977, 1980, 1982, 1985, 1987, 2002,
2003, 2011, 2012 and 2018) and much above normal
(Deciles 9-10) condition was observed for 12 years (1974,
1975, 1983, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2006,
2010, 2011, 2012 and 2020)same was depicted in Fig. 5.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Kopergaon Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Kopergaon tehsil,
Table 3 : Precipitation Deciles values of different tehsils of
Ahmednagar district (1961-2021).
Years Ahmednagar Akole Jamkhed Karjat Kopergaon
1961 5 4 4 5 8
1962 8 4 8 8 8
1963 3 1 6 3 2
1964 5 5 8 5 7
1965 4 4 1 4 9
1966 2 2 3 2 9
1967 6 6 8 6 9
1968 5 5 3 5 2
1969 7 7 7 7 8
1970 7 7 6 7 1
1971 4 4 5 4 5
1972 1 1 1 1 1
1973 4 3 6 4 4
1974 10 8 5 10 10
1975 9 8 10 9 7
1976 3 3 2 3 2
1977 1 1 7 1 5
1978 3 2 5 3 3
1979 7 7 10 7 9
1980 2 2 7 2 5
1981 6 7 2 6 4
1982 2 1 2 2 3
1983 9 3 10 9 7
1984 4 1 7 4 1
1985 2 5 4 2 1
1986 5 5 10 5 10
1987 2 2 1 2 6
1988 9 3 10 9 7
1989 7 1 9 7 9
1990 10 6 3 10 6
1991 10 6 3 10 2
1992 6 2 4 6 5
1993 8 3 9 8 1
1994 3 5 2 3 6
1995 8 6 4 8 2
1996 8 7 9 8 8
1997 10 2 4 10 5
1998 9 8 10 9 10
1999 10 4 9 10 8
2000 6 7 5 6 5
2001 4 6 2 4 3
2002 2 3 2 2 2
2003 1 8 3 1 3
2004 5 10 5 5 6
Years Ahmednagar Akole Jamkhed Karjat Kopergaon
2005 4 10 5 4 4
2006 9 10 10 9 8
2007 8 9 7 8 9
2008 7 9 7 7 4
2009 6 8 6 6 7
2010 10 10 8 10 10
2011 1 4 6 1 6
2012 1 6 1 1 4
2013 5 9 4 5 4
2014 3 8 3 3 1
2015 3 9 1 3 3
2016 6 9 8 6 6
2017 8 10 8 8 7
2018 1 9 1 1 3
2019 7 10 6 7 10
2020 10 5 9 10 10
2021 9 10 9 9 10
Table 3 continued....
Table 3 continued....
rainfall data for 61 years (1961-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under Deciles 1-
2 and 3-4. From Table 3, it was observed that there were
24 drought events in the period of 1961–2021. A much
below normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for
12 years (1963, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1985, 1991,
1993, 1995, 2002 and 2014) and much above normal
(Deciles 9-10) condition was observed for 12 years
(195,196,1967, 1974,1979, 1986, 1989, 1998, 2007, 2010,
2019 and 2020)same was depicted in Fig. 6.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Newasa Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Newasa tehsil,
rainfall data for 61 years (1961-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under Deciles 1-
2 and 3-4. From Table 4, it was observed that there were
24 drought events in the period of 1961–2021. A much
below normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for
12 years (1976, 1980,1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1992, 1993,
1994, 2002, 2003 and 2018) and much above normal
(Deciles 9-10) condition was observed for 12 years (1961,
1962, 1969, 1979, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997,
2010, 2017 and 2020) same was depicted in Fig. 7.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Parner Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Parner tehsil,
rainfall data for 61 years (1961-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under Deciles 1-
2 and 3-4. From Table 4, it was observed that there were
24 drought events in the period of 1961–2021. A much
below normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for
12 years (1968, 1972, 1982, 1987, 1994, 1995, 1999, 2003,
2011, 2012, 2014 and 2018) and much above normal
Table 4 : Precipitation Deciles values of different tehsils of
Ahmednagar district (1961-2021).
Years Newasa Parner Pathardi Rahata Rahuri
1961 9 4 7 NA 3
1962 10 9 9 NA 1
1963 8 4 9 NA 3
1964 4 4 8 NA 6
1965 4 5 7 NA 5
1966 6 4 5 NA 4
1967 4 8 6 NA 5
1968 7 1 4 NA 8
1969 10 4 4 NA 9
1970 6 9 5 NA 4
1971 6 6 1 NA 6
1972 3 1 1 NA 1
1973 8 7 6 NA 10
1974 5 8 7 NA 10
1975 7 5 9 NA 8
1976 1 6 4 NA 3
1977 3 8 4 NA 6
1978 3 3 2 NA 2
1979 10 10 3 NA 9
1980 1 9 2 NA 4
1981 2 8 3 NA 8
1982 1 1 1 NA 3
1983 9 6 10 NA 9
1984 2 7 3 NA 4
1985 1 3 9 NA 1
1986 9 8 4 NA 1
1987 5 2 3 NA 2
1988 9 6 10 NA 9
1989 6 10 8 NA 5
1990 9 8 8 NA 9
1991 7 4 5 NA 5
1992 2 6 2 NA 3
1993 2 10 1 NA 1
1994 2 2 3 NA 2
1995 9 2 7 NA 6
1996 7 9 10 NA 6
1997 5 7 6 NA 4
1998 8 9 10 7 7
1999 8 2 3 7 10
2000 6 6 4 3 7
2001 3 5 8 5 7
2002 2 5 5 4 2
2003 1 1 5 1 2
2004 6 10 7 8 7
2005 4 5 2 8 4
Years Newasa Parner Pathardi Rahata Rahuri
2006 8 10 9 9 10
2007 3 3 6 6 10
2008 7 3 8 2 8
2009 5 7 9 4 8
2010 10 9 10 10 10
2011 4 2 6 3 7
2012 4 1 1 6 5
2013 5 6 5 6 5
2014 5 2 2 1 3
2015 3 3 2 2 2
2016 7 3 8 5 6
2017 10 7 6 10 8
2018 1 1 1 1 1
2019 8 7 7 10 7
2020 10 10 10 10 10
2021 10 10 10 10 9
Table 4 continued....
Table 4 continued....
Assessment of Drought in Ahmednagar District using Precipitation Decile Index 1591
1592 Sapana K. Rahase et al.
Fig. 2 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Ahmednagar station
of Ahmednagar district.
Fig. 3 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Akole station of
Ahmednagar district.
Fig. 4 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Jamkhed station of
Ahmednagar district.
Fig. 5 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Karjat station of
Ahmednagar district.
(Deciles 9-10) condition was observed for 12 years (1962,
1970, 1979, 1980, 1989, 1993, 1998, 2004, 2006, 2010 and
2020)same was depicted in Fig. 8.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Pathardi Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Pathardi tehsil,
rainfall data for 61 years (1961-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under decile 1-2
and 3-4. From Table 4, it was observed that there were
24 drought events in the period of 1961–2021. A much
Table 5 : Precipitation Deciles values of different tehsils of
Ahmednagar district (1961-2021).
Years Sangamner Shevgaon Shrigonda Srirampur
1961 4 NA 3 4
1962 5 NA 7 1
1963 3 NA 4 2
1964 4 NA 10 1
1965 1 NA 3 3
1966 3 NA 2 10
1967 3 NA 5 5
1968 2 NA 2 7
1969 7 NA 5 2
1970 3 NA 2 4
1971 3 NA 4 1
1972 1 NA 1 1
1973 1 NA 9 6
1974 9 NA 10 7
1975 8 NA 6 9
1976 10 NA 3 5
1977 6 NA 7 5
1978 4 NA 4 3
1979 8 NA 9 7
1980 9 NA 6 8
1981 6 NA 7 9
1982 2 NA 3 2
1983 3 NA 9 8
1984 8 NA 5 2
1985 5 NA 2 3
1986 9 NA 4 5
1987 2 NA 6 10
1988 3 NA 9 8
1989 9 NA 8 7
1990 5 NA 8 9
1991 7 NA 5 4
1992 2 NA 2 4
1993 4 NA 6 6
1994 1 NA 1 3
1995 1 NA 10 6
1996 8 NA 7 7
1997 8 NA 5 4
1998 10 10 10 9
1999 6 6 10 4
2000 10 6 3 7
2001 5 4 8 6
2002 6 3 4 1
2003 5 2 1 1
2004 10 9 7 6
2005 7 3 5 6
Table 5 continued....
Years Sangamner Shevgaon Shrigonda Srirampur
2006 9 9 6 10
2007 7 5 10 9
2008 6 4 4 5
2009 5 8 8 8
2010 10 10 9 10
2011 1 8 1 8
2012 7 1 1 3
2013 6 5 8 5
2014 4 1 2 4
2015 4 2 3 2
2016 7 7 6 8
2017 9 7 7 10
2018 2 1 1 2
2019 10 6 8 9
2020 8 10 10 10
2021 10 10 9 10
Table 5 continued....
below normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for
12 years (1971, 1972, 1978, 1982, 1992,1993, 2005, 2014,
2015 and 2018) and much above normal (Deciles 9-10)
condition was observed for 12 years (1962, 1963, 1975,
1983, 1985, 1988, 1996, 1998, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2020)
same was depicted in Fig. 9.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Rahata Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Rahata tehsil,
rainfall data for 24 years (1998-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under deciles 1-2
and 3-4. From Table 4, it was observed that there were
10 drought events in the period of 1998–2021. A much
below normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for
5 years (2003, 2008, 2014, 2015 and 2018). and much
above normal (Deciles 9-10) condition was observed for
5 years (2006, 2010, 2017, 2019 and 2020)same was
depicted in Fig. 10.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Rahuri Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Rahuri tehsil,
rainfall data for 61 years (1961-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under decile 1-2
and 3-4. From Table 4, it was observed that there were
24 drought events in the period of 1961–2021. A much
below normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for
12 years (1962, 1972, 1978, 1985, 1986, 1987, 2002, 2003,
2015 and 2018) and much above normal (Deciles 9-10)
condition was observed for 12 years (1969, 1973, 1974,
1979, 1983, 1988, 1990, 1999, 2006, 2007, 2010 and 2020)
same was depicted in Fig. 11.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Sangamner Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Sangamner tehsil,
rainfall data for 61 years (1961-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under deciles 1-2
and 3-4. From Table5, it was observed that there were
23 drought events in the period of 1961–2021. A much
below normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for
11 years (1965, 1968, 1972, 1973, 1982, 1987, 1992, 1994,
1995, 2011 and 2018) and much above normal (Deciles
9-10) condition was observed for 12 years (1974, 1976,
1980, 1986, 1989, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2017 and
2019) same was depicted in Fig. 12.
Fig. 6 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Kopergaon station
of Ahmednagar district.
Fig. 7 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Newasa station of
Ahmednagar district.
Fig. 8 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Parner station of
Ahmednagar district.
Fig. 9 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Pathardi station of
Ahmednagar district.
Assessment of Drought in Ahmednagar District using Precipitation Decile Index 1593
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Shevgaon Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Shevgaon tehsil,
rainfall data for 24 years (1998-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under deciles 1-2
and 3-4. From Table 5, it was observed that there were
10 drought events in the period of 1998–2021. A much
below normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for
5 years (2003, 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2018). and much
above normal (Deciles 9-10) condition was observed for
12 years (1998, 2004, 2006, 2010 and 2020) same was
depicted in Fig. 13.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Shrigonda Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Shrigonda tehsil,
rainfall data for 61 years (1961-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under deciles 1-2
and 3-4. From Table 5, it was observed that there were
24 drought events in the period of 1961–2021. A much
below normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for
12 years (1966, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1985, 1992, 1994, 2003,
2011, 2012, 2014 and 2018) and much above normal
(Deciles 9-10) condition was observed for 12 years (1964,
1973, 1974, 1979, 1983, 1988, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2007,
2010 and 2020) same was depicted in Fig. 14.
Precipitation Decile (PD) for Shrirampur Tehsil
For the calculation of the decile of Shrirampur tehsil,
rainfall data for 61 years (1961-2021) was used. Historical
drought events were identified that fall under deciles 1-2
and 3-4. From Table 5, it was observed that there were
24 drought events in the period of 1961–2021. A much
below normal (Deciles 1-2) condition was observed for
12 years (1962, 1963, 1964, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1982, 1984,
2002, 2003, 2015 and 2018) and much above normal
(Deciles 9-10) condition was observed for 12 years (1966,
1975, 1981, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2017,
2019 and 2020) same was depicted in Fig. 15.
Fig. 10 : PD for the period of 1998-2021 of Rahata station of
Ahmednagar district.
F
Fig. 11 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Rahuri station of
Ahmednagar district.
Fig. 12 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Sangamner station
of Ahmednagar district.
Fig. 13 : PD for the period of 1998-2021 of Shevgaon station
of Ahmednagar district.
Fig. 14 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Shrigonda station
of Ahmednagar district.
Fig .15 : PD for the period of 1961-2021 of Shrirampur station
of Ahmednagar district.
1594 Sapana K. Rahase et al.
Conclusion
As per the 61 years of rainfall data drought years
were observed for 24 years for tehsils like Ahmednagar,
Akole, Jamkhed, Karjat, Kopergaon, Newasa, Parner,
Pathardi, Rahuri, Shrigonda and Shrirampur, in the case
of Sangamner tehsils, out of 61 years, it was observed
for 25 years, whereas for tehsils like Rahata and Shevgaon
for which only 24 years data was available shows 09
drought years.
In the case of tehsils such as Ahmednagar, Jamkhed,
Karjat, Kopergaon, Newasa, Parner, Pathardi, Rahuri and
Shrigonda, the frequency of drought events increased as
compared to the last decade, whereas in the case of tehsils
like Akole, Sangamner, Shevgaon and Shrirampur,
thefrequency of drought events decreased. Overall, the
frequency of drought events has increased since the last
two decades, which was a serious concern for crop
production in this region, which needs rainwater harvesting
and conservation programmes to be implemented.
Acknowledgments
I am grateful to Department of Agricultural
Meteorology, College of Agriculture, Pune for timely help
and providing me necessary facilities in conducting the
research.
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Assessment of Drought in Ahmednagar District using Precipitation Decile Index 1595
