Assessing Scotland’s self-sufficiency of major food commodities

Abstract

Background
Analysis of food self-sufficiency at the regional level helps to better understand its dependency on, and vulnerability to, the food system. Moreover, achieving food self-sufficiency has gained prominence in the present policy agenda to increase resilience to adverse events and lower food resource footprint. Using a novel method, we estimated the food balance sheets of Scotland, the second-largest region in the United Kingdom, and assessed the self-sufficiency of major food commodities for the first time.

Methods
Data from 2003 to 2019 were obtained from Economic Reports on Scottish Agriculture and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)’s family food statistics. Food import and export data are not readily available for Scotland. Therefore, we developed a consumption-based approach to estimate the net trade values of each commodity. We also assessed the contribution of domestic production toward nutrient security.

Results
According to our estimates, Scotland is a net exporter of beef, exporting an average of 51.3 thousand tons per year. It is also a net exporter of cereal (wheat, barley, oats) and potatoes, although this was not always the case between 2003 and 2019. Scotland has a strong level of self-sufficiency in cereals, potatoes, lamb, beef, dairy, and eggs. However, there is room for improvement in achieving self-sufficiency in poultry and pork, where the self-sufficiency ratio is relatively low. Our analysis of nutrient security indicates that wheat and dairy sourced from Scotland play crucial roles in the food supply chain, markedly influencing total energy, dietary protein, and primary dietary fat sources.

Conclusions
Our assessment can serve as a foundation for evidence-based decision-making in Scotland's agricultural and food policy. It offers insights into where investments and support may be needed to enhance domestic production and promote a resilient and sustainable food system. Estimated self-sufficiency ratios provide a more accurate assessment of the extent of food localization in Scotland. The method we developed in this study has the potential to be a valuable tool for future research studies, allowing for the estimation of regional-level food self-sufficiency even when trade data and food balance sheets are unavailable.

Full text

Rathnayakaetal. Agriculture & Food Security (2024) 13:34
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-024-00486-0
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Agriculture & Food Security
Assessing Scotland’s self-suciency ofmajor
food commodities
Shashika D. Rathnayaka1* , Cesar Revoredo‑Giha2 and Baukje de Roos1
Abstract
Background Analysis of food self‑sufficiency at the regional level helps to better understand its dependency on,
and vulnerability to, the food system. Moreover, achieving food self‑sufficiency has gained prominence in the pre‑
sent policy agenda to increase resilience to adverse events and lower food resource footprint. Using a novel method,
we estimated the food balance sheets of Scotland, the second‑largest region in the United Kingdom, and assessed
the self‑sufficiency of major food commodities for the first time.
Methods Data from 2003 to 2019 were obtained from Economic Reports on Scottish Agriculture and the Depart‑
ment for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)’s family food statistics. Food import and export data are
not readily available for Scotland. Therefore, we developed a consumption‑based approach to estimate the net trade
values of each commodity. We also assessed the contribution of domestic production toward nutrient security.
Results According to our estimates, Scotland is a net exporter of beef, exporting an average of 51.3 thousand tons
per year. It is also a net exporter of cereal (wheat, barley, oats) and potatoes, although this was not always the case
between 2003 and 2019. Scotland has a strong level of self‑sufficiency in cereals, potatoes, lamb, beef, dairy, and eggs.
However, there is room for improvement in achieving self‑sufficiency in poultry and pork, where the self‑sufficiency
ratio is relatively low. Our analysis of nutrient security indicates that wheat and dairy sourced from Scotland play cru‑
cial roles in the food supply chain, markedly influencing total energy, dietary protein, and primary dietary fat sources.
Conclusions Our assessment can serve as a foundation for evidence‑based decision‑making in Scotland’s agricul‑
tural and food policy. It offers insights into where investments and support may be needed to enhance domestic pro‑
duction and promote a resilient and sustainable food system. Estimated self‑sufficiency ratios provide a more accurate
assessment of the extent of food localization in Scotland. The method we developed in this study has the potential
to be a valuable tool for future research studies, allowing for the estimation of regional‑level food self‑sufficiency even
when trade data and food balance sheets are unavailable.
Keywords Food systems, Food balance sheets, Self‑sufficiency, Sustainability
Introduction
e regional food system framework has received a lot of
attention recently from food advocates, planners, supply
chain participants, and legislators as a workable blueprint
for how we might best feed ourselves [1–5]. A region can
be defined by political or administrative boundaries such
as a county, state, or environmental protection agency
(EPA) region [1, 5].
*Correspondence:
Shashika D. Rathnayaka
shashika.rathnayaka@abdn.ac.uk
1 The Rowett Institute, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB25 2ZD, UK
2 Food Marketing Research Team, Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC),
Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK
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Rathnayakaetal. Agriculture & Food Security (2024) 13:34
A regionally focused food system is more than the
sum of local food systems within its boundaries.1 Food
produced locally with short food supply chains often
emits fewer greenhouse emissions than food produced
and transported from elsewhere. It has gained popular-
ity as a model for a sustainable agricultural and food
system [6–9]. Although there are many "locals" in a
regional food system, it is broader geographically and
in terms of its various functions, including volume/sup-
ply, food demands, variety, supply chains, markets, land
use, and policy [1, 5, 10–12]. Moreover, regional food
systems may be a catalyst for important changes in the
way food is produced, delivered, and consumed. is
might have positive effects on the economy, the envi-
ronment, and society, and could contribute to food sys-
tem resilience.
However, the availability of natural resources (climate,
soil, and water), the opportunity costs of other uses of
these resources (export crops, residential activities, and
other economic activities like tourism), subsidies to spe-
cific crops or animal production, and the relative com-
petitiveness of domestic production when compared
to imported food in terms of production costs, relative
prices, quality, and branding can all have an impact on
regional food system’s ability to produce food. An ideal
regional food system, according to Clancy and Ruhf [1],
is one in which as much food as is necessary to satisfy
the needs of the population is produced, processed,
distributed, and purchased at various levels and scales
within the region. is enhances food self-sufficiency,
minimizes importation, maximizes resilience, and pro-
vides a significant economic and social return to all
regional stakeholders. e term "food self-sufficiency"
typically refers to a country’s ability to meet its food
needs through domestic production [13–15]. It is quite
important because it has a direct impact on the coun-
try’s ability to meet the nutritional needs of its popula-
tion. National food self-sufficiency has emerged as a key
indicator of food availability and a critical pillar of food
security [7].
However, no country or region can sustain itself on
exclusively locally produced food, and estimates indi-
cate that only one-third of the world’s population can be
fed locally (Clapp 2015, [16] and [17],). is shows that
foreign food imports from different continents, coun-
tries, and regions are essential for maintaining global
food security. [18]. Furthermore, mainstream econo-
mists have questioned the goal of achieving food self-
sufficiency because they believe the policies supporting
food self-sufficiencyare inefficient and market-distorting
[19]: [13]). Because they hinder the efficiency gainstypi-
cally associated with international trade, certainpolicies
linked with food self-sufficiency, such as export bans, tar-
iffs, and subsidies, are widely regarded by economists as
threatening the long-term goal of food security [13].
However, the 2007–2008 global food price crisis, the
COVID-19 pandemic’s destruction of the worldwide
food supply chain, and the war in Russia and Ukraine
sparked policy discussions on volatile global food mar-
kets, the resilience of disconnected agri-food systems,
and regional self-sufficiency in food [7, 20–22]. In
addition, import dependency, may not be sustainable
as the global population expands and climate change
affects production and natural resource availability
in source countries. In light of this, achieving food
self-sufficiency has gained recognition as a means of
boosting resilience to adverse events, and reducing
the resource footprint of food is currently moving up
the policy agenda in a number of countries. Therefore,
analysis of regional-level food self-sufficiency helps to
better understand a country’s or region’s dependency
on, and vulnerability to, the food system. Because,
regional food systems are associated with numerous
valuable attributes such as closed nutrient flows, close
relationships between consumer and producer, healthy
diets due to the availability of fresh and nutritious
food, and a small carbon footprint caused by short
transport distances [8, 23, 24]. Moreover, examining
the degree to which regions can meet their popula-
tion’s demand for food is imperative for policy making.
Regional SSRs, crucial for policy, include providing
financial aid to farmers via subsidies, grants, or low-
interest loans; enforcing land use planning and zoning
rules favoring agricultural land protection; supporting
research and development; implementing local pro-
curement policies to prioritize locally sourced food;
and investing in rural infrastructure like transporta-
tion, storage, and processing facilities to enhance mar-
ket access and minimize post-harvest losses [25–27].
However, up to this point, research has mostly looked
at country/nation-level food supply and self-sufficiency.
Only a very few studies have focused on local/regional
food self-sufficiency (See [1, 5, 24, 28, 29]). Data avail-
ability for regional studies is less than on the national
level since regions are part of a political and institutional
framework that is both national and supra-national. is
can have a negative impact on the regional examination
of food self-sufficiency. Furthermore, to our knowledge,
there are no studies in the literature that examine the
self-sufficiency of food in Scotland. In the current study,
we, therefore, investigate the degree to which Scotland
can satisfy their own food needs.
1 However, the local food concept is challenged by processed foods, as for
these to be truly local all ingredients would need to be produced and pro-
cessed locally.
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Scotland is one of the four constituent countries com-
prising the United Kingdom (UK). It is the second-largest
region in the UK, comprises around 8% of the popula-
tion and occupies the northernmost third of the Brit-
ish mainland. Although Scotland’s food supply is closely
tied to UK, European, and even international agendas,
historically, the UK still has a significant impact [30].
Agriculture is currently the most prominent land user in
Scotland, accounting for approximately three-quarters of
all land [31]. Scotland’s weather is notoriously unpredict-
able, with degrees of unpredictability rising, and the EU
has currently categorized 85% of its agricultural area as
a "Less Favored Area" [32]. Despite these obstacles, the
Scottish food and drink sector has expanded to become
the country’s largest manufacturing sector (NFU [33]).
With the vision that "by 2025 Scotland will be a Good
Food Nation2 where people from every walk of life take
pride and pleasure in, and benefit from, the food they
produce, buy, cook, serve, and eat every day,” Good Food
Nation Act was imposed in July 2022. Since then, efforts
have been made to enhance accessibility to and promote
the advantages of nutritious local foods, ensuring the
sustainabilityof Scotland’s food industry and enhancing
Scotland’s standing as a Good Food Nation [34].
Given the concerns outlined, the present study inves-
tigates the production, import, and export dynamics
in Scotland, as well as their connection to dietary rec-
ommendations. Specifically, we aim to answer the fun-
damental question of how self-sufficient Scotland is in
meeting its food needs and the implications for its food
security and sustainability. Scotlanddoes not currently
have a set of established benchmark estimates on the
availability of food for market consumption and its sup-
ply sources. is paper contributes to the literature in the
following ways. First, it maps existing food supply sources
and estimates Scotland’s food balance sheets (FBS) for
ten major food commodities; barley, oats, wheat,, pota-
toes, poultry, lamb, beef, pork, dairy, and eggs. Our selec-
tion of these commodities is based on their significant
roles in production, dietary intake, and nutrition sup-
ply in Scotland [35, 36]. ese commodities collectively
represent key components of the Scottish diet and are
vital for sustaining both the economy and the nutritional
needs of the population. By focusing on these commodi-
ties, we aim to provide insights into their contribution
to the agriculture sector, trade, and nutrition addressing
important aspects of food security and resource manage-
ment in Scotland.
As far as we are aware, this is the first study that esti-
mates the FBS of Scotland. Second, the paper estimates
the self-sufficiency ratios of major food commodities in
Scotland to provide a more accurate assessment of the
extent of food localization in Scotland. ird, this paper
assesses the supply of energy and macronutrients with
respect to major food commodities and the contribution
of Scottish production to nutrition security in the last
two decades. Moreover, before we can have a meaning-
ful conversation about food security or self-sufficiency in
Scotland, we need to have a fair evaluation of the levels
of consumption of different food groups, the qualities of
the food consumed, and the origins or sources of supply.
While there are a couple of studies concerned with food
and nutrition security in the UK [15, 37–41], no studies
so far focused specifically on the Scottish food system.
us, this paper will also contribute to the food security
literature by providing an analysis of food availability and
supply sources in Scotland.
e remainder of this paper is organized as follows.
A description of the data used and the methodology
employed are presented next. e results of the study
are then presented and discussed in a subsequent sec-
tion. e last section of the paper provides a summary of
the results and discusses policy implications with regard
to the findings. Limitations and directions of future
research are also described.
Methodology
e procedure employed in this study consists of three
steps. First, the food balance sheets for wheat, barley,
oats, potatoes, dairy, poultry, beef, pork, lamb, dairy,
and eggs were estimated using the United Nations’ Food
and Agriculture Organization (FAO)’s FBS approach (see
Fig.1), and per capita food availability of each commod-
ity was derived. Second, the degree of self-sufficiency of
the above food commodities was measured to accurately
assess the extent of total food available that is satisfied
by local production, and finally, the contribution of local
production to nutrition security was assessed.
Estimating Scotland’s FBS
FBS is an accounting framework specific to food and
agricultural products. In fact, the FBS framework is simi-
lar to the System of National Accounts (SNA) supply-use
framework. FBS is, thus, naturally complementary to
national account estimation. e FBS has a substantial
amount of data regarding food use and supply. ese data
provide snapshots of the movement of food products
from the farm or border to the domestic market where
they will be sold. FBS data can be usedto observe trends
2 A Good Food Nation is defined as a country where: Residents know what
good food is and how to find it; People are committed to serving and sell-
ing good food; Everyone has access to an adequate amount of healthy,
nutritious food; ere is a reduction in diet-related diseases and the envi-
ronmental consequences of food consumption; Food producers work
toward providing food that is increasingly healthy and sustainable. (https://
www. gov. scot/ polic ies/ food- and- drink/ good- food- nation/).
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in a country’s food supply, compare it to the nutritional
needs of healthy diets, estimate supply/shortage meas-
ures, evaluate food and nutrition policies, analyze dietary
changes, measure the degree of chronic undernutrition,
assess self-sufficiency, and import dependence ratios,
set trade and production targets, and project future food
security.
Even though FBS are available for the UK, the FAO does
not estimate the FBS for Scotland. erefore, we first con-
structed the annual food balance sheets database for the
years 2003 through 2019 for the above primary commodi-
ties. Domestic production, net stocks, Scottish food, seed,
feed, and other data for each commodity were obtained
from Economic Reports on Scottish Agriculture published
by the Scotland government. Next, food purchase data for
Scotland were collected from the Department for Environ-
ment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)’s family food sur-
vey, including 167 final food products. DEFRA’s family food
is a yearly publication offering detailed statistical informa-
tion on amounts purchased, expenditures, and nutrient
intakes from household food and drink use and eating out.
is survey collects data using self-reported diaries sup-
plemented by till receipts of all purchases, including food
consumed out of home, during a two-week period. e
survey encompasses a sample of 5000 households across
the United Kingdom, covering various regions such as the
Northeast, North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, East
Midlands, West Midlands, East, London, South East, South
West, England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. For
our analysis, we used data specific to Scotland. However,
the amount of food consumed in Scotland that is sourced
from imports and the amount of food produced in Scot-
land that is exported to the rest of the UK and the world
are not readily available. is shortcoming is brought on by
the challenges in integrating the numerous data sources on
food imports and expenditures. is was the biggest chal-
lenge in estimating the FBS of Scotland. We, therefore,
developed a consumption-based approach to estimate the
net trade values of the above ten commodities. First, weekly
consumption3 which was obtained from the Department
for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)’s fam-
ily food statistics (per person per week) of 167 food prod-
ucts was back-transformed into the corresponding annual
consumption of primary commodity equivalents using the
food conversion factors. For instance, wheat is processed
into flour, then flour is used to produce various other
derived food products such as bread, pastries, and cakes.
In DEFRA’s family food data, we only have purchasing
amounts of these derived primary food products but not
the consumption of primary commodities such as wheat.
is conversion process involves mapping commodity
trees which shows the relationship between primary com-
modities and derived products, some commodity trees are
simple, and some are complex depending on the number
of derived products, the number of processing levels, and
the creation of co-products during processing. Moreover,
Fig. 1 FAO’s FBS approach.
3 We used the purchased data from DEFRA’s family food survey as a proxy
for actual consumption. Vepsäläinen et al., [81] examined the correlation
between food purchase and consumption data utilizing automatically gath-
ered purchase data. eir findings suggest that grocery purchase data can
effectively reflect food consumption among adults. ey propose that future
studies should consider utilizing purchase data as a resource-saving and
moderately valid measure in large samples.
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the production of final food products involves more than
one primary commodity, therefore some of the commod-
ity trees are interconnected. After mapping the commodity
trees linking final food products and primary food com-
modities, annual consumption of wheat, barley, oats, pota-
toes, poultry, lamb, pork, beef, eggs, and dairy in Scotland
was estimated by multiplying the matrix of the weekly con-
sumption of final products by the matrix of conversion fac-
tors as in Eq.1. ese all-conversion factors applied came
from FAO [42, 43] and Arnoult etal. [44].
where F is the matrix of conversion factors,
Qit pc final
is
the matrix of weekly per capita consumption of final prod-
ucts and
Qpc primary
it
is the weekly purchase of primary com-
modity i in year t.
Next,
Qpc primary
it
was multiplied by the number of weeks
per the year and the population in Scotland (N) to get the
total consumption of primary commodity i (
QTF
it
) as in
Eq.2.
As aforementioned, Scottish-origin food
(
Q
SF
it )
, feed
(
Q
feed
it
)
,
and seed
(
Q
seed
it )
data were obtained from Eco-
nomic reports on Agriculture. erefore, non-Scottish
food
QNSF
it
can be calculated as
Total domestic utilization of each primary commodity
(
Q
TDU
it )
was obtained using the following magnitudes:
According to the FBS’s basic identity, total domestic sup-
ply (
QTDS
it )
should be equal to domestic utilization
(
Q
TDU
it )
.
QTDS
it
can also be established as.
where
QPRD
it
is the Scottish production of commodity i
in year t,
QNS
it
is the net stock and
QNT
it
is the net trade
as shown above. In the above equation,
QTDS
it
(derived
above),
QPRD
it
, and
QNS
it
(obtained from Economic Reports
on Scottish Agriculture) are known values; therefore,
QNT
it
of each primary commodity can be derived as.
(1)
Qpc primary
it
=
FQ
pc final
it i
=1, ...,
n
;
t
=1, ...,
T,
(2)
Q
TF
it
=Q
pc primary
it
×52 ×N
.
(3)
QNSF
it
=Q
TF
it
−Q
SF
it
(4)
Q
TDU
it
=QNSF
it
+QSF
it
+Q
feed
it
+Q
seed
it
(5)
QTDU
it
=
QTDS
it
(6)
QTDS
it
=
QPRD
it
+
QNS
it
+
QNT
it ,
(7)
Q
NT
it =QTDS
it −

QPRD
it +QNS
it

To estimate per capita annual consumption of com-
modity i in year t, the total consumption of primary com-
modity i is divided by the population (N) in Scotland.
Estimating Scotland’s food self‑suciency ratio
According to FAO [14], the concept of food self-suffi-
ciency is generally taken to mean the extent to which a
country can satisfy its food needs from its own domestic
production. Self-sufficiency ratio (SSR), which expresses
food production as a percentage of available supply, is
an important measure that conveys this more pragmatic
meaning of the idea.
Several studies have used SSR to examine regional
agriculture and food sector structural changes. Fitzpat-
rick [45], Luan etal. [46], Loke and Leung [47], Morrison
etal. [48], Ostry and Morrison [49]; Puma etal. [50] and
Kako [51] defined the SSR, on a calorie basis, as the ratio
of calorie supply from domestically produced food to the
total calorie supply from all food in a country. Alterna-
tively, Holm etal. [52] and DEFRA [53] compute the SSR
on a value basis as the fraction of consumer demand met
by local production in terms of household food expen-
ditures and farm-gate value. DEFRA [54] calculated the
SSR for the United Kingdom by market value. Godenau
etal. [28] measured the degree of food self-sufficiency on
a regional scale considering the Canary Islands as a case
study. eir measurement was undertaken using three
dimensions—volume, value, and energy content—and for
several hundreds of items.
As shown in FAO [55], Luan etal. [46], and Clapp [13,
56], the key indicator that captures a more practical com-
prehension of the self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) is one that
express food production as a ratio of available supply. e
SSR can be further refined by including fluctuations in
the level of domestic food stocks as suggested by Puma
etal., [50]. Following FAO [55] and Puma etal. [50], we
estimated SSR as below,
Assessing thenutrition supply
e dietary energy supply (
QES per capita annual
it )
, protein
supply

QPRS per capita annual
it

and fat supply
(
Q
FAT per capita annual
it )
per capita per annum were esti-
mated as follows. e conversion factors used here (fE;
calories by unit of edible weight, fP; proteins by unit of
(8)
Q
food per capita annual
it =
QTF
it
N
(9)
SSR
=Q
PRD
it
Q
PRD
it
+
Q
NT
it
+
Q
NS
it
×
100
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Rathnayakaetal. Agriculture & Food Security (2024) 13:34
edible weight, fE; fat by unit of edible weight) were
obtained from food composition tables of the FAO [43]
report published in 2008.
Results anddiscussion
Figure 2 shows the production, human consumption,
and net trade of cereal, potatoes, meat, dairy, and eggs
in Scotland. All these data were derived from our esti-
mated FBS as shown in Sect. "Estimating Scotland’s
FBS". Scotland is one of the main barley-growing loca-
tions in the UK and it has a long history of produc-
ing barley [57]. e predominant cereal crop grown in
Scotland is spring barley, with an estimated growing
area of 134,744ha. Over half (58%) of the land used for
cereal production was used for spring barley. Scotland’s
climate and soil make it an ideal place to grow barley.
e main uses of barley cultivation are for the produc-
tion of animal feed, malt for the whisky industry, and
(10)
QES per capita annual
it
=f
E
×Q
food per capita annual
it
(11)
QPRS per capita annual
it
=f
P
×Q
food per capita annual
it
(12)
QFS per capita annual
it
=
fF
×
Qfood per capita annual
it
human consumption (pearl barley) (NFU [33, 58]).
e second most popular crop production was winter
wheat, in terms of area, in 2019, totalling 64,856ha. At
28%, this is just over a quarter of all land used for cereal
production. Winter barley production areas totalled
30,996ha, accounting for 13%, and were the third most
popular crop. Spring oats production made up less than
one per cent of all areas, using only 1054ha [59]. As can
be seen in Panel A of Fig.2, over the course of 17years
from 2003 to 2019, Scotland’s agricultural landscape
witnessed important shifts in the production of key
food commodities. As can be seen, there was a nota-
ble increase in wheat production from 2003 to 2008,
with production peaking in 2008. e production val-
ues vary between a low of 652.9 thousand tons in 2013
to a high of 1,019.2 thousand tons in 2015. While oats
production soared by approximately 42%, showcasing
a substantial increase, barley production saw a mod-
est decline of around 3%, over this period. Scotland is
known for producing high-quality potatoes, especially
seed potatoes, mostly in eastern and central regions,
which are exported globally. Scotland exports seed and
ware potatoes to more than 40 different countries [60].
According to AHDB48, in 2015, 21% of Great Britain’s
planted potato area was in Scotland, with 45% of that
area planted for seed. According to our analysis, the
production of potatoes also displayed fluctuations over
Fig. 2 Production (Panel A), human consumption (Panel B), and net trade (Panel C) of major food commodities in Scotland. Own computation
based on Scottish government data and Family Food statistics. Net trade = Exports—Imports
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Rathnayakaetal. Agriculture & Food Security (2024) 13:34
the years, with variations in annual production levels.
Potato production showed a noticeable dip between
2009 and 2012.4 e UK’s declining fresh potato con-
sumption—which dropped by 27% in the ten years
leading up to 2013—may be the cause of part of this
decreased production [60].
Scotland’s livestock sector is a vital component of its
agricultural industry and plays a significant role in the
country’s economy and culture. Livestock farming in
Scotland encompasses the raising of various types of
animals, primarily cattle, sheep, and poultry [58]. e
country is known for its native Scottish breeds such as
the Highland cattle and Aberdeen Angus, prized for their
hardiness and quality. Beef farming accounts for about
a quarter of the total value of agricultural gross output.
ere are over 500,000 breeding beef cows and heifers
in Scotland and beef cattle farming takes place on over
9,500 holdings, whereas there are approximately 198,000
dairy cows on about 1800 holdings [61]. ere are
approximately 7.4 million sheep on approximately 13,600
holdings in Scotland. Sheep farming is another essen-
tial aspect of Scotland’s livestock sector. Scotland repre-
sents over 20% of the UK’s total sheep flock [60]. Scottish
Blackface and Cheviot are some of the popular breeds
raised for their meat and wool. e rugged terrain of the
Scottish Highlands is well-suited for sheep farming, and
it has a long history in the region [61]. As can be seen
in Panel A of Fig.2, of all major food commodities, egg
production rose most significantly. Poultry production
declined by nearly 30% over the past decade, reflecting
a notable decrease. Additionally, pork production wit-
nessed a substantial drop in production of approximately
48%, indicating challenges in this segment. e decline
in domestic poultry and pork production reflects a sig-
nificant decrease in self-sufficiency, resulting in increased
reliance on imports to meet consumption needs. is
increased reliance on imported poultry and pork makes
the food supply chain more vulnerable to external disrup-
tions such as trade barriers or supply chain disruptions
[62].
Panel B of Fig.2 shows the consumption of major food
commodities (in thousand tons) for each year from 2003
to 2019. As can be seen from the figure, in Scotland, dairy
and egg consumption was the highest across all com-
modities (upwards of 1000 thousand tons per year). Bar-
ley, oats and lamb consumption was the lowest. Over the
course of 17years, Scotland’s consumption patterns for
key food categories witnessed significant shifts. Notably,
the consumption of cereal crops such as wheat and bar-
ley experienced declines of approximately 16% and 40%,
respectively. However, oats consumption saw a notable
increase of around 27%, possibly due to growing aware-
ness of their health benefits [63]. Consumption of pota-
toes rose by approximately 10%, indicating their enduring
popularity. According to reports by DEFRA [64] and
Dogbe and Revoredo-Giha [65], the average weekly con-
sumption of fresh potatoes in the UK plummeted by 68%
between 1974 and 2018. Conversely, the consumption
of processed potatoes surged by 109% during this time-
frame. However, it is important to note that our estimates
regarding potato consumption in Scotland encompass
both fresh and processed potatoes. In the realm of meat
consumption, both lamb and beef experienced notable
declines of approximately 23% and 23%, respectively,
suggesting shifts in meat preferences. Pork consumption
also decreased by approximately 12%. Dairy consump-
tion showed relative stability with a modest decrease
of about 1.6%. Despite substantial variation in egg con-
sumption, average consumption increased by 2%. Stewart
etal. [66] reports a slight decline in meat consumption
(− 17%), while Alae-Carew et al. [67] report a smaller
decline in milk and milk product consumption (− 2%)
in the UK over the previous ten years. Our results thus
confirm the literature mentioned above. ese trends are
encouraging in the context of sustainable food consump-
tion in Scotland, as red meat production typically carries
a higher emissions footprint per calorie produced com-
pared to other food categories [68, 69],and [70].
Panel C of Fig.3 represents the net trade—in thousands
of tons—for these food commodities (cereals, potatoes,
meat, dairy, and eggs) over the years from 2003 to 2019.
A positive value indicates that the country exported more
of that commodity than it imported, while a negative
value indicates that the country imported more than it
exported. Scotland’s net trade in key food commodities
underwent significant transformations over the 17-year
period. For instance, Scotland was previously a net
exporter of wheat but since 2012, became a net importer.
Despite annual variation, Scotland is a net exporter of
barley and oats. Since 2003, Scotland had a net trade
surplus of potatoes, exporting more potatoes than it
imported. In 2015–2016, Scotland exported seed pota-
toes to 24 countries including Egypt (64% of exports),
followed by Morocco (11%) the Canary Islands (6%) and
Saudi Arabia (6%) [71].
Scotland’s net trade in meat commodities exhibited
several notable shifts over the 17 years. Scotland is a
net exporter (59.4 thousand tons in 2019) of beef, but a
net importer of pork and poultry. Scotland has been a
net exporter of dairy products over this entire period.
According to AHDB [72], of the total milk production
in the UK, 84% was processed in Scotland and 16% was
transported into England for processing. Of the volume
4 Domestic utilization (food, feed and seed) figures of wheat, barley, oats
and potatoes can be found in Appendix1.
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.

Page 8 of 14
Rathnayakaetal. Agriculture & Food Security (2024) 13:34
processed in Scotland, around 530m liters was processed
into cheese, and some 730m liters into other products,
the majority of which was liquid milk. It transitioned
from being a net importer of eggs in 2003 to becoming a
net exporter, with a remarkable shift occurring from 2012
onwards. e net trade values of eggs range from a low of
-306.2 thousand tons in 2008 to a high of 574.5 thousand
tons in 2018.
Figure3 shows a comparison of per capita production
and consumption of major food commodities in Scotland
in 2019. In the context of per capita production and per
capita food consumption in Scotland, significant dispari-
ties emerge among various food categories. Barley stands
out with the highest per capita production, producing
356kg per person, while dairy takes the lead in per capita
consumption at 207kg per person. Lamb has the lowest
production per capita at 4.8kg, while barley records the
lowest per capita food consumption at 1.9kg. Per cap-
ita production of wheat, potatoes and dairy products is
greater than consumption, indicating a strong surplus or
export market. Per capita consumption of oats and bar-
ley are lower than per capita production because they
are important components of animal feed and indus-
trial usage (see Appendix 1). Lamb production closely
matches consumption, suggesting a balanced market.
Pork per capita consumption far exceeds per capita pro-
duction, likely leading to a reliance on imports to meet
demand.
Table1 shows the self-sufficiency ratio for various food
products over several years. e standard deviation of
the self-sufficiency ratios varies across different food
products, indicating varying degrees of self-sufficiency. A
higher coefficient of variation (CV) suggests more vari-
ability relative to the mean. According to the formula we
used to calculate SSR, A food self-sufficiency ratio below
100% signifies insufficient food production to meet popu-
lation demand; 100% suggests production capacity meets
population needs, while above 100% indicates surplus
domestic production surpassing domestic requirements
[73].
e cereals show self-sufficiency ratios close to or
above 100, suggesting a relatively high level of produc-
tion to meet consumption. e self-sufficiency ratio for
potatoes is around 127.8, indicating a consistent trend of
producing more than consumed. e meat products gen-
erally show self-sufficiency ratios ranging from 26 to 146,
with some fluctuations. e variability might be due to
factors like imports and seasonal changes. e dairy self-
sufficiency ratio is around 112, indicating that the region
produces slightly more dairy products than it consumes.
e self-sufficiency ratio for eggs is around 102, indicat-
ing that egg production meets consumption needs.
Over the years, most of the food products show varying
degrees of self-sufficiency. Some products consistently
maintain ratios above 100, indicating overproduction.
Barley, oats, potatoes, beef and dairy consistently exhibit
self-sufficiency ratios well above 100, indicating a strong
ability to produce them domestically. While Scotland
maintains self-sufficiency in oats, the degree of self-
sufficiency has decreased from 2003 to 2019. Although
domestic oat production has risen from 132.8 thousand
tons to 189.1 thousand tons during this period (as illus-
trated in Panel A of Fig.2), oat consumption in Scotland
has concurrently increased by 27%. is rise in consump-
tion might be contributing to the decline in the self-suffi-
ciency ratio. Some products like poultry, lamb, and pork
show fluctuating self-sufficiency ratios. For instance,
the decrease in self-sufficiency rates for poultry (from
95.6% to 67.3%) and pork (from 35.8% to 20.9%) primar-
ily resulted from declines in domestic poultry and pork
Fig. 3 A comparison of per capita production and consumption of major food commodities in Scotland in 2019. Own computation based
on Scottish government data and Family Food statistics
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Page 9 of 14
Rathnayakaetal. Agriculture & Food Security (2024) 13:34
production between 2003 and 2019 (as depicted in pan-
els A and B of Fig. 2). Fluctuations in self-sufficiency
ratios for meat products suggest susceptibility to factors
such as imports and seasonal changes, highlighting vul-
nerabilities in these sectors In addition to the influence
of domestic production and consumption changes, the
variability in self-sufficiency ratios across different food
products could be attributed to factors such as weather
conditions, market dynamics, technological advance-
ments, and trade policies. [73–76].
In summary, the country has a strong level of self-suf-
ficiency in grains, potatoes, lamb, beef, dairy and eggs.
ere is room for improvement in achieving self-suffi-
ciency in poultry and pork, where the SSR is relatively
low. When comparing our findings to DEFRA’s UK Food
Security Report [76], it is evident that the UK is largely
self-sufficient in grain production, exceeding 100% of
domestic consumption for oats and barley, over 90% for
wheat, and around 70% for potatoes. In terms of meat,
milk, and eggs, the UK produces approximately the same
volume as it consumes. However, self-sufficiency for pig-
meat is the lowest, standing at 66% of consumption. e
report also highlights consistent egg production in the
UK meeting between 89 and 98% of domestic demand,
with a significant increase over the last decade despite
the transition to free-range methods, which now account
for about half of production.
Figure4 shows the energy, protein and fat supply in per
capita in 2019 for various food products in Scotland. Our
study on energy and macronutrient supply in Scotland
offers valuable insights for comparing local consump-
tion patterns with those across the UK. However, due
to the absence of estimates for other regions in the UK
utilizing the same methodology (attributed to insuffi-
cient data on interregional trade), comparisons must rely
on alternative sources. One such source is the FAO food
balance sheet for the UK. e FAO’s estimate for wheat
energy supply in the UK in 2019 (288,492kcal/person/
year) differs from ours, mainly due to methodological
variations. For example, in our calculation of per capita
wheat consumption, we accounted for all final food com-
modities containing wheat, which were then converted
back into wheat using appropriate conversion factors as
detailed in Sect."Estimating Scotland’s FBS" of our study.
As shown in Fig.4, our estimates are divided into two
categories: total supply and supply from Scottish origin.
For instance, the total energy supply values represent the
total amount of energy provided by each food product
on a per capita basis in kilocalories per year. ese val-
ues reflect the overall energy contribution of each food
product to the diet of the population. e energy sup-
ply from Scottish-origin values represents the portion of
energy supplied by each food product that is produced
within Scotland. ese values provide insights into the
Table 1 Self‑sufficiency ratio of major food commodities in Scotland (percentages)
Own computation based on Scottish government data and Family Food statistics
Year Wheat Barley Oats Potatoes Poultry Lamb Beef Pork Dairy Eggs
2003 103.5 148.6 304.3 131.2 95.6 91.9 123.5 35.8 118.4 75.7
2004 108.4 156.0 211.3 126.0 98.6 101.1 136.3 36.6 115.6 75.7
2005 103.3 133.8 232.1 121.1 96.1 91.1 140.6 34.8 111.1 78.2
2006 116.5 152.5 233.7 141.6 83.6 95.1 148.1 35.5 111.7 76.0
2007 117.5 147.9 199.9 136.7 82.6 80.3 140.6 35.9 106.6 78.1
2008 118.8 160.1 202.1 134.0 77.3 101.3 157.4 36.1 107.7 74.6
2009 97.1 138.5 244.7 138.8 79.3 100.3 138.2 28.5 106.0 87.8
2010 111.7 133.0 177.4 133.7 74.8 100.8 157.9 27.9 101.6 86.0
2011 126.8 154.7 228.4 130.5 87.8 124.5 148.2 31.8 110.6 107.8
2012 98.9 164.1 203.6 100.6 71.2 86.7 129.2 26.2 106.0 89.3
2013 103.2 157.6 323.8 123.6 86.3 108.0 146.5 15.5 107.3 95.9
2014 134.0 149.1 226.8 127.0 73.9 107.8 149.7 15.3 123.3 113.7
2015 119.4 144.2 243.0 114.7 64.4 116.6 154.1 16.5 108.9 110.5
2016 100.0 224.2 214.0 122.8 62.6 81.2 140.1 14.7 102.4 129.0
2017 92.5 211.2 173.7 130.8 85.6 102.5 165.3 15.2 129.3 146.0
2018 65.2 180.5 149.3 128.4 65.4 100.2 147.2 19.9 115.5 155.7
2019 110.7 268.2 216.2 130.5 67.3 108.5 163.5 20.9 119.4 149.9
Mean 107.5 166.1 222.6 127.8 79.5 99.9 146.3 26.3 111.8 101.8
Standard deviation 15.5 36.1 42.9 9.7 11.4 11.7 11.4 8.8 7.5 28.2
Coefficient of variation 14.5 21.7 19.3 7.6 14.3 11.7 7.8 33.5 6.7 27.7
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Rathnayakaetal. Agriculture & Food Security (2024) 13:34
Fig. 4 Comparison of the food sources supplying energy and macronutrients available for consumption in Scotland in 2019. Own computation
based on Scottish government data and Family Food survey data
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Page 11 of 14
Rathnayakaetal. Agriculture & Food Security (2024) 13:34
contribution of locally produced food to the nutrition
intake of the population.
Wheat contributes significantly to the total energy sup-
ply, with a substantial portion of it coming from Scottish
origin. It is a staple food and a major source of dietary
energy, as well as being our most important source of
dietary protein. Diary, all of Scottish origin, is the sec-
ond most important contributor to total energy sup-
ply, and dietary protein, and the most important source
of dietary fat. Barley, oats, and potatoes also contribute
to the energy supply, and their entire supply is of Scot-
tish origin. Meat products are notable sources of protein
and fat, with varying proportions of Scottish origin. Of
all meat varieties, poultry provides the most substantial
protein content, while pork offers the highest fat content.
When considering recommended energy and protein
intakes, it becomes evident that Scottish-origin wheat
makes a substantial contribution, accounting for approxi-
mately 30% of energy and 50% of protein requirements
in Scotland. Macdiarmid etal. [41] examined the trends
in national nutrition security and the role of imports in
nutrition security within the UK. ey utilized FAO food
balance sheet data spanning from 1961 to 2011 along
with national food composition tables. According to their
findings, the supply of total carbohydrates has remained
relatively stable over the decades, with a higher propor-
tion sourced from domestically produced food than pre-
vious years. Additionally, their study indicates that the
UK achieved self-sufficiency in the supply of protein.
Conclusions andpolicy implications
e Scottish food system demonstrates a diverse and
adaptable landscape, showcasing varying degrees of
self-sufficiency across different commodities, which can
impact its vulnerability to external factors. While cereals,
potatoes, lamb, beef, dairy, and eggs demonstrate rela-
tively high self-sufficiency ratios, indicating a strong abil-
ity to meet domestic demand, vulnerabilities are apparent
in poultry and pork supply, where self-sufficiency ratios
are lower.
Our findings on production, consumption, net trade,
and self-sufficiency provide a comprehensive under-
standing of the interconnected aspects of the Scottish
food system. Understanding food supply patterns can
aid in dietary planning, food security considerations,
and supporting local agricultural production. Estimated
food balance sheets will help to model future food pro-
duction and consumption scenarios, including the opti-
mization of its nutritional value and the minimization of
its environmental impacts, enabling the quantification
of impacts of a transition to more healthy and sustain-
able dietary options. Our self-sufficiency ratio estimates
provide a more accurate assessment of the extent of food
localization in Scotland. In general, this assessment can
serve as a foundation for evidence-based decision-mak-
ing in Scotland’s agricultural and food policy. It provides
insights into where investments and support may be
needed to enhance domestic production and promote a
resilient and sustainable food system.
However, balancing the goal of self-sufficiency with
environmental sustainability, ensuring that increased
food production does not come at the expense of the
planet’s health, is a key challenge for policymakers and
farmers. According to Beltran-Peña etal. [73], under a
sustainability scenario, half of the world’s countries will
be self-sufficient while the other half will be depend-
ent on food imports. Currently, food systems contrib-
ute around a third (~ 35%) to global greenhouse gas
emissions (GHGE) [2]. Agriculture and related land use
accounted for just under a quarter of total GHG emis-
sions in Scotland in 2017 (Scottish government 2019a),
and this contribution would be higher if the wider food
manufacturing and processing emissions associated with
getting food from “farms to our forks” were included
[77]. erefore, sustainable farming practices should be
promoted to increase productivity while minimizing
its environmental impact. Climate change, on the other
hand, will have a direct impact on what types of farm-
ing can be done, and what crops can be grown, as well as
shaping how farming operates. For instance, it may also
offer some opportunities for Scottish agriculture as rising
temperatures could extend the growing seasons for crops
[78]. However, climate change is likely to increase many
pest, weed, and disease problems on crops in Scotland
[79].
e self-sufficiency estimates can be misleading if they
do not account for the imported inputs that are essential
to domestic production. e reliance on imported ferti-
lizer and feed in the agricultural sector can impact food
production and security. erefore, we acknowledge this
constraint. In many earlier studies, self-sufficiency sta-
tistics are calculated by value, not by volume or caloric
content. However, given the volatility of prices and cur-
rency exchange rates, this may distort the ratios. As a
result, it is stated that "a better measure of self-suffi-
ciency might use volume measures or even nutritional
values" [80]. In our study, we evaluated self-sufficiency
using quantities and nutritional values. Moreover, our
approach is based on consumption of final food products,
and we converted all their constituent ingredients to pri-
mary commodities.
Regional studies on food self-sufficiency face unique
challenges due to the complexities of political and
institutional frameworks that often span both national
and supra-national levels. As a result, the availabil-
ity of data for such regional analyses is comparatively
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Rathnayakaetal. Agriculture & Food Security (2024) 13:34
limited when compared to national-level studies. is
scarcity of data has translated into a scarcity of stud-
ies dedicated to exploring local and regional food self-
sufficiency and self-reliance. Our study introduces
a novel method designed to bridge this data gap. e
approach we have developed holds promise as a valu-
able tool for future research studies, enabling the esti-
mation of regional-level food self-sufficiency even
when trade data and food balance sheets are not read-
ily accessible. While our study successfully evaluated
the self-sufficiency of essential food categories, includ-
ing cereals, potatoes, meat, dairy, and eggs, it is essen-
tial to acknowledge that the broader landscape of food
self-sufficiency encompasses a more diverse range of
products, notably seafood and fruits and vegetables.
For a more comprehensive understanding of a region’s
or nation’s self-sufficiency in meeting its dietary needs,
it becomes evident that future research efforts should
expand their focus to encompass these additional food
categories. By doing so, we can ensure a more holistic
and complete assessment of food self-sufficiency and
resilience in the face of varying challenges.
Appendix1
Domestic utilization ofcereal andpotatoes inScotland
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
800
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Thousand persons
Thousand tonnes
Wheat
Food Feed Seed Populaon
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Thousand persons
Thousand tonnes
Barley
Food Feed Seed Populaon
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Thousand persons
Thousand tonnes
Oats
Food Feed Seed Populaon
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
800
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Thousand persons
Thousand tonnes
Potatoes
Food Feed Seed Populaon
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the anonymous referees and the editor of this
journal for their constructive comments on an earlier version of the paper.
Author contributions
SDR: conceptualization, data preparation, investigation, visualization, formal
analysis, writing—original draft, writing—review, and editing. CR‑G: concep‑
tualization, investigation, visualization, formal analysis, writing—review, and
editing. BdR: investigation, visualization, writing—review, and editing.
Funding
This research was funded by the Rural and Environment Science and Analyti‑
cal Services Division 363 (RESAS) of the Scottish Government, project RI‑B5‑04.
Availability of data and materials
Data are available upon request.
Declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Received: 8 December 2023 Accepted: 14 May 2024
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Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in pub‑
lished maps and institutional affiliations.
Shashika D. Rathnayaka is a research fellow and applied econo‑
mist at the Rowett Institute, University of Aberdeen, UK. She holds
a Ph.D. from Griffith University, Australia. Before the University of
Aberdeen, she worked as a Senior Lecturer in Agricultural Econom‑
ics at the Uva Wellassa University of Sri Lanka and a Teaching Fellow
at Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Australia. Her research
interests include Consumer Demand Analysis, Food and Agricultural
Economics, and Econometric Modelling.
Cesar Revoredo‑Giha is a professor, senior economist and head
of the Food Marketing Research Team in the Rural Economy, Environ‑
ment and Society Department at Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC),
based at the King’s Buildings Campus in Edinburgh. He received a
PhD from the University of California, Davis in 2001 and subsequently
worked at the University of Georgia, The University of Cambridge
before moving to SRUC (then Scottish Agricultural College) in 2005.
His areas of specialisation are industrial organisation of food markets,
international trade, and econometrics. His main areas of interest are
food economics and the operation and performance of agri‑food
supply chains (domestic and international).
Baukje de Roos is a professor at the Rowett Institute, University of
Aberdeen, UK. She is an internationally recognised nutrition scientist
having > 25 years of experience in the design and delivery of dietary
intervention studies. Her current Scottish Government‑funded work
focuses on the mapping of fish, crop, dairy and meat supply chains,
and modelling transitions to more sustainable production and con‑
sumption patterns; exploratory modelling of relationships between
‘healthiness’, ‘carbon footprint’, ‘level of processing’ and ‘cost’ of UK
diets; and barriers and facilitators to adopt effective food swaps to
make an individual’s diet more healthy and environmentally sus‑
tainable in real‑time. Her expertise in the area of diet and health
has formed the basis of contracts and consultancies with large food
companies, food levy boards, the food and drink support sector, and
national UK television.
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.

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