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Hydrological responses of three gorges reservoir region (China) to climate and land use and land cover changes

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Natural Hazards
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Yixin Sun
Yixin Sun
Yixin Sun
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Qiang Zhang
Qiang Zhang
Qiang Zhang
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Wenlong Song
Wenlong Song
Wenlong Song
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Tang Senlin at INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHIC SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH，CAS
Tang Senlin
  • INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHIC SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH，CAS
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Abstract and Figures

Three Gorges Dam is the largest hydraulic infrastructure in the world, playing a pivotal role in flood mitigation. The hydrological responses of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) to climate change and human activities are unclear, yet critical for the Three Gorges Dam’s flood control and security. We simulated streamflow and water depth by coupling the Variable Infiltration Capacity model and the CaMa-Flood model. Daily discharge at the outlet of TGRR was well modeled with a relative error within 2% and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of approximately 0.81. However, the flood peak was overestimated by 2.5–40.0% with a peak timing bias ranging from 5 days earlier to 2 days later. Runoff and water depth in the TGRR increased from 2015 to 2018 but decreased during flood seasons. Land use and land cover changes in 2015 (LUCC2015) and 2020 (LUCC2020) were analyzed to quantify their hydrological impacts. During the 2015–2018 period, land use conversion increased in built-up areas (+ 0.6%) and water bodies (+ 0.1%), but decreased in woodland grassland (-0.7%) and cropland (-0.1%). This led to a slight increase in runoff and inflow of less than 4‰ across the TGRR, a 7.70% decrease in average water depth, and a 15.4‰ increase in maximum water depth. Water depths in the TGRR decreased during flood seasons, and increased during non-flood seasons. Increasing water depth was identified in northern TGRR. This study clarifies the historical TGRR’s hydrological features under LUCC and climate changes, aiding regional flood mitigation in the TGRR.
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Received: 23 May 2024 / Accepted: 6 August 2024 / Published online: 14 August 2024
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2024
Qiang Zhang
zhangq68@bnu.edu.cn
1 Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
2 Advanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Environment and Ecology, Beijing Normal University,
Zhuhai, China
3 China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China
4 Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil &
Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
5 National Water and Energy Center, UAE University, Al Ain, UAE
Hydrological responses of three gorges reservoir region
(China) to climate and land use and land cover changes
YixinSun1· QiangZhang2· WenlongSong3· SenlinTang2· Vijay P.Singh4,5
Natural Hazards (2025) 121:1505–1530
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06870-0
Abstract
Three Gorges Dam is the largest hydraulic infrastructure in the world, playing a piv-
otal role in ood mitigation. The hydrological responses of the Three Gorges Reservoir
Region (TGRR) to climate change and human activities are unclear, yet critical for the
Three Gorges Dam’s ood control and security. We simulated streamow and water depth
by coupling the Variable Inltration Capacity model and the CaMa-Flood model. Daily
discharge at the outlet of TGRR was well modeled with a relative error within 2% and a
Nash-Sutclie eciency coecient of approximately 0.81. However, the ood peak was
overestimated by 2.5–40.0% with a peak timing bias ranging from 5 days earlier to 2 days
later. Runo and water depth in the TGRR increased from 2015 to 2018 but decreased
during ood seasons. Land use and land cover changes in 2015 (LUCC2015) and 2020
(LUCC2020) were analyzed to quantify their hydrological impacts. During the 2015–2018
period, land use conversion increased in built-up areas (+ 0.6%) and water bodies (+ 0.1%),
but decreased in woodland grassland (-0.7%) and cropland (-0.1%). This led to a slight
increase in runo and inow of less than 4‰ across the TGRR, a 7.70% decrease in
average water depth, and a 15.4‰ increase in maximum water depth. Water depths in the
TGRR decreased during ood seasons, and increased during non-ood seasons. Increasing
water depth was identied in northern TGRR. This study claries the historical TGRR’s
hydrological features under LUCC and climate changes, aiding regional ood mitigation
in the TGRR.
Keywords Hydrological responses · Water depth · Runo · Climate changes · LUCC ·
Three gorges reservoir regions
1 3
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
... However, the construction and operation of dams have significant ecological consequences, and these negative impacts are well documented (Coerver et al. 2018). The ecological disruptions caused by dam projects have raised substantial concerns, particularly in transboundary river basins (Gutenson et al. 2020;Sun et al. 2024). In regions with substantial riparian populations, monitoring reservoirs becomes not only important but also critical for ensuring the well-being of these communities. ...
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