The author is a Senior Analyst at the RAND Corporation. The opinions expressed are solely the author's and do not represent those of RAND or any of its sponsors.
The author is grateful for comments from Daniel Byman, Russell Glenn, Thomas McNaugher, Bruce Nardulli, Kenneth Pollack, Thomas Szayna, Barry Watts, and two anonymous reviewers on an earlier version of this article.
1. Edward Luttwak, Coup D'Etat: A Practical Handbook (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1969). There is a large literature on the coup and military interventions in politics, and Arab politics in particular. See S.E. Finer, The Man on Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics, 2d ed. (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1988); Eric A. Nordlinger, Soldiers in Politics: Military Coups and Governments (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1977); Claude E. Welch Jr. and Arthur K. Smith, Military Role and Rule: Perspectives on Civil-Military Relations (North Scituate, Mass.: Duxbury Press, 1974); J.C. Hurewitz, Middle East Politics: The Military Dimension (New York: Praeger, 1969); Eliezer Be'eri, Army Officers in Arab Politics and Society (New York: Praeger, 1970); and Amos Perlmutter, The Military and Politics in Modern Times: On Professionals, Praetorians, and Revolutionary Soldiers (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1977).
2. The "how-to" format seems inevitably to lead to such a tone. An earlier book by Curzio Malaparte has a tone similar to Luttwak's, as do later handbook-style volumes. Malaparte, Coup d'Etat: The Technique of Revolution, trans. Sylvia Saunders (New York: E.P. Dutton, 1932); and Gregor Ferguson, Coup D'Etat: A Practical Manual (Poole, Dorset: Arms and Armour Press, 1987).
3. Luttwak, Coup D'Etat, p. 12.
4. Kermit Roosevelt, Countercoup: The Struggle for the Control of Iran (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1979).
5. Eliezer Be'eri, "The Waning of the Military Coup in Arab Politics," Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 18, No. 1 (January 1982), pp. 69-81.
6. This list replicates the recommendations and terminology of Donald L. Horowitz's section on coup prevention in ethnic conflicts. As Horowitz points out, these recommendations replicate many of the principles long used by colonial powers to recruit colonial forces. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985). The techniques fit easily in the pattern of "pervasive division and personal rivalry" inherent in patrimonial leadership in the Middle East. James A. Bill and Robert Springborg, Politics in the Middle East, 4th ed. (New York: HarperCollins, 1994), p. 166. These methods also bring the "traditional bonds" that complicate coup-making into more advanced bureaucratic states. Luttwak, Coup D'Etat, pp. 4-5.
7. S.E. Finer, "Foreword," in Luttwak, Coup D'Etat, p. xv.
8. Hanna Batatu, The Old Social Classes and the Revolutionary Movements of Iraq: A Study of Iraq's Old Landed and Commercial Classes and of Its Communists, Ba'athists, and Free Officers (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1978); and Charles Tripp, "The Future of Iraq and Regional Security," in Geoffrey Kemp and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Powder Keg in the Middle East: The Struggle for Gulf Security (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 1995), pp. 133-159.
9. Nikolaos van Dam, "Middle Eastern Political Clichés: 'Tikriti' and 'Sunni Rule' in Iraq; 'Alawi Rule' in Syria: A Critical Appraisal," Orient, January 1980, pp. 42-57.
10. It is difficult to obtain reliable population figures for these countries. Saudi Arabia has long been known as a state in which demographic measurements are suspect if public, secret if accurate, and always controversial. Syria and Iraq are just as sensitive. Iraq's last publicly available census was conducted in 1977. The Iraqi census of 1987 may be unique in making failure to register for the census punishable by death. The 1987 census helped identify the location of Kurds for later extermination campaigns. Middle East Watch, Genocide in Iraq: The Anfal Campaign against the Kurds (New York: Human Rights Watch, 1993), pp. 10, 87. Completed forms from the 1987 census were provided to local offices of the General Directorate of Security together with directions on maintaining the files as a regular information source. Middle East Watch, Bureaucracy of Repression: The Iraqi Government in Its...