An overview of the renewable energy potential in the coastal environment of the Black Sea

Abstract

Nowadays the effects of the climate change on the environment and on the quality of our life become more and more obvious. Various studies pointed out the necessity to limit the global temperature increase below 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels. It is well known that a large part of greenhouse gas emissions is generated by the production of electricity and heat using fossil fuels. For this reason, an obvious measure to avoid the impacts of climate change is the utilisation of clean sources of energy to produce electricity. In the marine environment, there are various sources of renewable energy, and the exploitation of offshore wind energy is a successful example. The evaluations regarding the wind power potential in the Black Sea indicate that there are areas where the exploitation of wind energy would be effective, such as the Romanian nearshore. Also, the use of hybrid systems could make efficient also the exploitation of the wave energy if we take into account the high potential of certain seasons. Considering the above mentioned aspects, an analysis of the energy potential of the wind and waves in the Black Sea is made in this study based on some existing works, as well as on recent results. Aspects regarding the effect of the climate change on these resources in the future will also be discussed, under various scenarios, such as RCP4.5 or RCP8.5. These results are of interest to various stakeholders interested in investing in the exploitation of the renewable resources existing in the Black Sea and also for coastal protection.

Full text

Journal of Engineering Sciences and Innovation
Volume 9, Issue 2 / 2024, p. 169 - 182
Technical Sciences
Academy of Romania D. Environmental Engineering and Energy
www.jesi.astr.ro
Received 21 March 2024 Accepted 14 June 2024
Received in revised form 14 February 2024
An overview of the renewable energy potential in the coastal
environment of the Black Sea
LILIANA RUSU1,2
1Faculty of Engineering, ‘Dunarea de Jos’ University of Galați
47 Domneasca St., Galati, Romania
2Technical Sciences Academy of Romania, 26 Dacia Blvd., Bucharest, Romania
Abstract. Nowadays the effects of the climate change on the environment and on the
quality of our life become more and more obvious. Various studies pointed out the
necessity to limit the global temperature increase below 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial
levels. It is well known that a large part of greenhouse gas emissions is generated by the
production of electricity and heat using fossil fuels. For this reason, an obvious measure to
avoid the impacts of climate change is the utilisation of clean sources of energy to produce
electricity. In the marine environment, there are various sources of renewable energy, and
the exploitation of offshore wind energy is a successful example. The evaluations regarding
the wind power potential in the Black Sea indicate that there are areas where the
exploitation of wind energy would be effective, such as the Romanian nearshore. Also, the
use of hybrid systems could make efficient also the exploitation of the wave energy if we
take into account the high potential of certain seasons. Considering the above mentioned
aspects, an analysis of the energy potential of the wind and waves in the Black Sea is made
in this study based on some existing works, as well as on recent results. Aspects regarding
the effect of the climate change on these resources in the future will also be discussed,
under various scenarios, such as RCP4.5 or RCP8.5. These results are of interest to various
stakeholders interested in investing in the exploitation of the renewable resources existing
in the Black Sea and also for coastal protection.
Keywords: Black Sea, marine environment, renewable energy, climate change.
1. Introduction
The effects of climate change on the environment and weather conditions are
currently more and more evident and have a great impact on the quality of our life.
This indicates that the results of various studies pointing out the necessity to limit
 Correspondence address: Liliana.Rusu@ugal.ro

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the global temperature increase below 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels
must be taken into account. On the other hand, it is well known that a large part of
greenhouse gas emissions is generated by the production of electricity and heat
using fossil fuels. For this reason, an obvious measure to avoid the impacts of
climate change is the utilisation of clean sources of energy to produce electricity.
The recent global energy crisis has shown us the urgency of accelerating the
transition to clean energy [1]. Of course, renewable energy has an essential role in
this way, and the measures established by the European Green Deal will help the
European Union countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [2].
In the marine environment, there are various sources of renewable energy and the
exploitation of offshore wind energy is a successful example. For this reason, their
potential has been intensively evaluated, from global [3, 4] to regional [5,6] and
local scales [7], in order to find the most promising areas for wind energy
exploitation. Sustained efforts are also made to improve the existing technologies
or to find new ones, to increase the efficiency of the devices [8].
Another source of renewable energy found in the marine environment is wave
energy, but its exploitation is not as advanced as in the case of offshore wind
exploitation. However, in recent years, considering the high potential of this
renewable energy source [9], considerable efforts are being made to improve the
efficiency of wave energy converters (WECs), [10,11]. The implementation of
some new wave farms near the wind farms already deployed is a viable option
from several points of view, such as reducing the variability of renewable energy
and the costs of implementing the energy transport network, as well as increasing
the energy production in a certain area [12].
For the countries bordering the Black Sea, the proximity of this marine
environment can bring an important advantage regarding accessibility to renewable
energy. The assessments of the offshore wind power potential in the Black Sea
indicate that there are areas where the exploitation of wind energy would be
effective, such as the Romanian nearshore [13,14]. Regarding the potential of wave
power in the Black Sea, various studies have also been carried out [15,16]. The use
of hybrid systems could also make the exploitation of wave energy efficient if we
take into account the high potential of certain seasons [17,18].
Taking into consideration the above mentioned aspects, an analysis of the energy
potential of the wind and waves in the Black Sea is presented in this study based on
some existing works, as well as on recent results. Aspects regarding the effect of
climate change on the wind and wave power in the future are also discussed, under
various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, such as RCP4.5
or RCP8.5.
The idea of developing this study appeared due to the increased interest in
implementing some renewable energy exploitation projects in the Black Sea,
especially for wind farms. The first step is made by the BLOW project [19], with
support from the European Commission’s Horizon Europe research, which aims to
harness the offshore wind energy potential in the western Black Sea, more

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precisely in the Bulgarian offshore area. The objective of this project is to
demonstrate the competitiveness of floating offshore wind installed in this region.
The results included in this study represent an overview of the renewable energy
potential in the coastal environment of the Black Sea, that could be of interest to
various stakeholders interested in investing in the exploitation of these resources.
Implementing such wind or/and wave farms represents also a solution for coastal
protection [20,21].
2. Methods and materials
As previously mentioned, investments in renewable energy (wind and/or wave
farms) require a previous evaluation of the resources in the target area to estimate
the efficiency of the system. The target area of this study is the Black Sea basin
characterized by a medium to high potential in certain areas regarding wind power,
while the wave power presents a lower potential that is in general affected by the
seasonal aspect. However, using appropriate devices, the Black Sea environment
can be a source of efficient energy.
The wind power in a location can be evaluated based on the wind speed simulated
by numerical models and provided by various databases, or using measurements.
The most well-known and used databases, which provide information on global
wind speed, are ERA5 (the abbreviation of European Center for Medium-
RangeWeather Forecasts - ECMWF RE-analysis fifth generation, [22]) and NCEP-
CFSR (U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Forecast
System Reanalysis, [23]).
The advantage in the case of numerical simulations is that the available information
covers extended areas. Usually, the values of the wind speed components (u and v)
are provided by the numerical models at the reference height of 10 m above sea
level, but the wind turbines are operating at higher heights. For this reason,
methods to extrapolate the wind speed from a known height to the wind turbine
hub height are often used in offshore wind farm designs. Considering that the wind
speed increases roughly logarithmical with the height in the statically-neutral
surface layer, the following relationship can be applied [24]:
 󰇛
󰇜
󰇛
󰇜 , (1)
where Uz represents the wind speed value at the operational hub height z, Uzref is
the wind speed corresponding to the reference height zref above sea level and z0
represents the surface roughness length (usually the value considered for offshore
wind is 0.0002 m).
The energetic capacity of the wind is provided by the wind power density (Pw in
W/m2), calculated with the following equation:

󰇛󰇜. (2)
where air is the air density (an average value of 1.225 kg·m-3 is considered).

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Under a World Bank Group (WBG) initiative on offshore wind, funded and led by
the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP,
https://www.esmap.org/esmap_offshore-wind), a global map of offshore wind
technical potential was provided, including the Black Sea area. Offshore wind
technical potential was estimated for the Black Sea area within 200km of the
shoreline using the amount of generation capacity that could be technically
feasible, considering only wind speed and water depth (without other technical,
environmental, social, or economic constraints). The wind speeds with a 250m
spatial resolution were provided by Global Wind Atlas, a free database of the latest
input datasets and modelling methodologies. A very important aspect in choosing
the type of turbine that can be installed in a location is the water depth, and this
information is indicated in Figure 1. For the Black Sea area, the mean wind speed
is illustrated in Figure 1. The offshore wind technical potential in the Black Sea
was evaluated to be around 269 GW for fixed turbines and around 166 GW for
floating turbines.
Fig. 1. Map of the mean wind speed in the Black Sea, [25].
As in the case of wind power, the evaluation of the wave power resource (WP) in
deep water, defined as the amount of wave energy flux per unit length of the wave
front (expressed in kW/m), can be made based on the main wave parameters
provided by measurements or simulation, and using the following relationship,
[26]:
 

 (3)
where Hs (m) is the significant wave height, Te (s) is the wave energy period, ρ =
1025 kg/m3 is the density of the seawater, and g (m/s) is the gravitational
acceleration.
Various databases, of which ERA5 is the most widely used, provide reliable
information on wave parameters at a global scale. Based on them, evaluations of

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wave power can be made all over the world, as presented in Figure 2. However,
these simulations being carried out with a rather low resolution, they cannot
accurately indicate all the changes induced by the local bathymetry on the wave
conditions. For this reason, in order to have a more accurate evaluation of the wave
conditions in a target area, simulations using high-resolution bathymetry are
necessary. Such simulations are performed with wave models such as the SWAN
(Simulating WAves Nearshore, [28]) model.
Fig. 2. Mean wave power over the 30-year time interval considered (1989–2018
based on data from ERA5, [27].
Wave models like SWAN provide various wave parameters in each grid node of
the computational domain, and some of them are the transport components,
denoted also as wave power. The energy transport components are computed based
on the next relationships:
󰇛󰇜
󰇛󰇜 (4)
where 󰇛󰇜 is the directional wave energy density spectrum, x and y are the grid
coordinate system (for the spherical coordinates x-axis corresponds to longitude
and y-axis to latitude), and cx, cy are the propagation velocities of wave energy in
the geographical space (absolute group velocity components).
The absolute value of the wave power is computed as:
  

. (5)
To have a perspective of how the renewable resources available in the Black Sea,
namely wind and wave power, will evolve under the action of climate change, studies
at the regional level were carried out. Aspects regarding the effect of climate change
on future wind power were analysed in various studies, using in general the wind
fields provided by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under various scenarios, such

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as RCP4.5 or RCP8.5. These high-resolution wind fields (EUR-11, ~12.5km) at 10
m above the sea level are freely distributed through EURO-CORDEX database and
cover the entire Europe and also the Black Sea basin [29].
3. Results
In recent years, various studies have been carried out and their results were
published in prestigious journals in the field. In this section, a review of the most
important results is made and based on them, an analysis of the wind and wave
power potential of the Black Sea is carried out.
3.1 Wind energy resource characterization
Although the potential of wind power in the Black Sea is lower than that found for
example in the North Sea, it still has characteristics that can make it efficient in
exploitation. These aspects were analysed in various studies included in Table 1.
Some indications regarding the period covered by the data as well as the origin of
the data used in the analysis are also included in Table 1.
As mentioned before, NCEP-CFSR provides wind speeds at 10 m above sea level,
and due to the quality of these data, they are widely used to assess wind power over
extended periods. Such a study was carried out for the Black Sea basin [15], using
data for a period of 20 years (1997–2016). The mean wind power density at a
height of 80 m was evaluated and its spatial distribution is presented in Figure 3.
Fig. 3. The spatial distribution of the mean wind power density for the period 1997-2016, [15].
Table 1. Studies regarding the evaluation of the wind power potential in the Black Sea, specifying the
periods and characteristics of the data used in the analysis.

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Authors
Period
Wind field
Analysis
Rusu, et al., 2018,
[15].
1997–2016
NCEP-CFSR
Wind power at 80m
Rusu, 2019, [30].
1987–2016
NCEP-CFSR
Wind power at 80m on the
western side of the Black Sea
Onea and Rusu,
2019, [13].
1998-2017.
ERA-Interim
Wind power at 80m
Davy, et al., 2018,
[31].
1979–2004
2021-2050
2060-2090
Historical period: ERA-
Interim and RCA4.
Future period: RCA4 under
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
scenarios.
Wind power at 120m
Rusu, 2019, [32].
1976–2005
2021-2050
Historical period: RCA4
Future period: RCA4, under
RCP4.5, RCP8.5 scenarios
Wind power at 80m
Islek and Yuksel,
2022, [33].
1970-2005
2021-2100
Historical period: RCA4,
ERA5, NCEP-CFSR for
historical period
Future period: RCA4 under
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
scenarios
Wind power at 100m
Diaconita, et al.,
2021, [14].
2021-2050
2071-2100.
RCA4 under RCP4.5
scenario
Wind power at 90m in six
locations on the western side of
the Black Sea
From Figure 3 it can be noticed that the highest values of the mean wind power are
over the Azov Sea (with a maximum value of around 650 W/m2) and on the
western side of the Black Sea (extended zone with values of around 550 W/m2). It
is well known that the weather in this region presents seasonal variability and, as
expected, this is present also in the wind power potential (see Figure 4). For
seasonal analysis, the following partitions were considered: winter - DJF
(December-January-February), spring - MAM (March-April-May), summer - JJA
(June-July-August) and autumn - SON (September-October-November).
From Figure 1 it can be seen that these areas with high energy potential are suitable
for the deployment of the wind farms because they are also characterised by water
depths suitable for such activities. Even in the summer season, characterized by the
lowest mean values of the wind power density, in the above-mentioned areas mean
values of about 300 W/m2 can be found.
The previous study was extended to a period of 30 years (1987-2016), with a focus
on the western area of the Black Sea basin and along the Romanian coast, [30]. In
Figure 5 the mean wind power density fields at 80 m for the western side of the
Black Sea and along the Romanian coastal environment are presented. The wind
power distribution illustrated in the maps from Figure 5, indicates quite high mean
values (over 400 W/m2) near the coast, and for this reason, these target areas (namely
the western side of the basin and Romanian nearshore) can be suitable for efficient
exploitation of the wind resources.

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Fig. 4. The spatial distribution of the mean wind power density at 80 m for the period 1997-2016 for
each season: winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA), autumn (SON), [15].
Fig. 5. The spatial distributions of the mean wind power density fields at 80 m corresponding to the 30-
year period 1987–2016 for: the western side of the Black Sea (left panel) and the Romanian coastal
environment (right panel), [30].
A more in-depth study of the wind energy potential in the Romanian coastal
environment was carried out taking into account the wind speeds provided by
ERA-Interim [13]. In that study, in addition to the depth of the water, the distance
from the shore was also taken into account. They clearly showed that the potential
of the wind resources increases from the coast to the offshore zone (until 20 km) by
about 55.85%.
In recent years, taking into account the obvious climate changes of the weather,
increased attention has been directed to the evaluation of the impact of these
changes on renewable resources. These types of evaluations are important to
highlight whether the investment in a certain area is sustainable in the future. The

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conclusions of the study developed by Davy et al. [31], where an ensemble of
RCA4 products was used, indicate no negative influence of climate change on
wind resources in the Black Sea region under either the RCP4.5 or RCP8.5
scenarios.
For the near future, another study indicates moderate enhancements in the average
wind power under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, [32]. The study pointed out that
more worrying is the increase in the maximum values of wind speed, and in some
cases, this does not necessarily indicate that the turbines will produce more energy
considering their cut-out limit (in general about 25 m/s). The results obtained for
both scenarios indicate a movement of the location of the maximum values to the
western side of the Black Sea, although the enhancement in terms of the average
values is not very high (see Figure 6).
Fig. 6. Average values of the wind power at 80m height (Pw) corresponding to the historical period
1976-2005 (left side) and for the near future period 2021-2050, under RCP4.5 scenario, [32].
Another recent study was focused on evaluating the projected changes in the future
wind power potential in the Black Sea, [33]. To find possible stable locations for
wind farms was one of the objectives, and their results show that until the end of
this century the western Black Sea, and especially the southwestern basin, will
continue to be characterized by great wind power potential and with lower
variability than other parts of the sea. Having an approach focused on the local
impact of climate change under the RCP4.5 scenario, Diaconita et al. [14] consider
in their analysis two periods of 30 years each from the future (2021-2050 and
2071-2100) and six reference locations from the western part of the Black Sea
basin. The results indicate the same trend observed in previous studies regarding
wind energy in the future. The study also analysed the efficiency of five types of
turbines, resulting in only four of them being efficient in the conditions of the
target locations.
3.2 Wave energy resource characterization
In the marine environment, another source of renewable energy is represented by
wave energy that can be captured using specific devices, namely wave energy
converters (WECs). Compared to the coastal areas of the oceans where the swell is

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present, the sea state conditions in the Black Sea do not present characteristics that
could be considered as having high wave energy resources. However, by using
specific devices for seas with milder conditions or hybrid devices, the exploitation
of wave energy could be profitable. An important aspect, as in the case of wind
energy, it is necessary to identify the so-called hot-spot areas.
In Table 2, a summary of the studies carried out regarding the wave power
potential in the Black Sea basin, both in the recent past (hindcast simulations) and
in the future (projections under various scenarios), has been made. In addition to
the information specifying the period of the study, information about the model
used in the simulations, the spatial resolution of the wave data and the wind fields
used to force the wave model are included. Some results regarding the spatial
distribution of the mean wave power in the Black Sea are presented in Figures 7
and 8.
Fig. 7. The spatial distribution of the mean wave power for the period 1997-2016, [15].
Fig. 8. The spatial distribution of the mean wave power for the period 1997-2016 for each season:
winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA), autumn (SON), [15].

Table 2. Studies regarding the evaluation of the wave power potential in the Black Sea, specifying the periods and characteristics of the data used in the
analysis.
Authors
Period
Wind
Wave
Analysis
Akpınar and Kömürcü, 2012, [34].
1995–2009
ERA-Interim
SWAN hindcast – regular grid,
resolution of 0.0167°
Wave power
Rusu, 2015, [35].
1999-2013
NCEP-CFSR
SWAN hindcast with data
assimilation - regular grid
resolution of 0.08°
Wave power
Akpınar, et al., 2017, [16].
1979–2009
NCEP-CFSR
SWAN hindcast – regular grid
resolution of 0.067°
Wave power
Rusu, 2018, [36].
1999-2013
NCEP-CFSR
SWAN hindcast - high-resolution
areas on the Romanian coast
Wave power
Saprykina and Kuznetsov, 2018,
[37].
1960–2011
-
Voluntary Observing Ship Program
measurements
Wave power
Rusu, et al., 2018, [15].
1997–2016
NCEP-CFSR
SWAN hindcast with data
assimilation - regular grid
resolution of 0.08°
Wave power
Bingölbali, et al., 2020, [38].
1979–2009
NCEP-CFSR
SWAN hindcast, high resolution
areas in the south west coasts of the
Black Sea
Wave power
Islek and Yuksel, 2021, [39].
1979-2018
NCEP, Era-interim
SWAN hindcast - regular grid
resolution of 0.05°
Wave power
Rusu, 2019, [30].
1987–2016
NCEP-CFSR
SWAN hindcast with data
assimilation - regular grid
resolution of 0.08°
Wave power on western
side of the Black Sea
Rusu, 2019, [40].
2021-2050
RCA4 under RCP4.5, RCP8.5
SWAN hindcast - regular grid
resolution of 0.08°
Wave power
Rusu, 2020, [41].
2021-2050,
2071-2100
RCA4 under RCP4.5, RCP8.5
scenarios
SWAN - regular grid resolution of
0.08°
Wave power
Aydoğan, et al., 2021, [42].
1979-2005
2040-2100.
Downscaled wind fields for RCP
4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.
SWAN - regular grid resolution of
0.125°
Wave power

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In some of the studies like [34,38,39,42], the spatial distribution of the wave power
is analysed, but for its computation, the same equation valid for deep water is
applied, although WECs are generally installed in shallow water. However, the
wave power can be calculated considering the capabilities of the SWAN model to
compute the wave energy transport components (see equations 4 and 5),
[15,30,35,36,40,41]. The long-term measurements of the wave parameters can also
be used for wave power assessment, [37].
As expected, the highest values of the mean wave power are found in wintertime
(about of 8 kW/m). Sometimes, over extended areas, the wave power in wintertime
is about twice that of those computed for the entire period (see Figures 7 and 8). In
general, like in the case of wind power, the western side of the basin presents a
more significant wave power potential. The greatest mean wave power fields are
found in the southwestern basin, and the mean wave power potential in this area
and also in the Romanian coast are presented in Figure 9.
Fig. 9. The spatial distributions of the mean wave power corresponding to the 30-year period 1987–
2016 for: the western side of the Black Sea (left panel) and the Romanian nearshore (right panel), [30].
4. Conclusions
In this study, an overview of the wind and wave power potential in the coastal
environment of the Black Sea was made, in order to provide a perspective on the
possibilities of extracting efficient the energy from these renewable resources.
Through several results presented here and additional information included, the
objective was accomplished, and the potential investors interested in developing
projects to extract wind and wave energy from the Black Sea can find useful
information.
The spatial distribution maps of the mean wind and wave power indicate the
western side of the Black Sea basin as being characterized by higher wind and
wave power potential. On the other hand, the Azov Sea has a high potential for
efficient wind power extraction.
Acknowledgment: This work was carried out in the framework of the research
project CLIMEWAR (CLimate change IMpact Evaluation on future WAve
conditions at Regional scale for the Black and Mediterranean seas marine system),
supported by Ministry of Research, Innovation and Digitization, CNCS -
UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-PCE-2021-0015, within PNCDI III.

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