Article

What Effect does Ideological Extremism have on Mass Shootings? An Assessment of Motivational Inconsistencies, Risk Profiles, and Attack Behaviors

Taylor & Francis
Terrorism and Political Violence
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Abstract

Much like other violent extremists, some mass shooters embrace inconsistent, mixed, or customized beliefs and attack for a combination of personal and ideological reasons. This makes it difficult to understand what effects ideology has on their behavior. To obtain empirical answers, we studied (1) the frequency of extreme ideological interests and motives among public mass shooters, (2) differences between perpetrators with and without extreme ideological interests, and (3) the degree of consistency between their ideologies and attack outcomes. Findings suggest that from 1966–2023, approximately one-quarter of public mass shooters in the United States had extreme ideological interests and roughly 70 percent of them were partially motivated by those extreme beliefs. Mass shooters with and without extremist interests showed similar rates of childhood trauma, mental health problems, suicidality, crisis, substance abuse, and criminal records, but ideological shooters were more likely to create legacy tokens, use semi-automatic or automatic rifles, kill strangers and non-white victims, and be copycats or role models. It appears extremism was sometimes a correlate and sometimes a cause of their behavior, with a clear effect on shaping some attacks. Nevertheless, inconsistencies were common, and many attackers did not target locations or victims that fit their ideological enemies.

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... For each case where a specific woman was targeted, we then coded whether the shooter intended to harm her before, during, or after the main attack. 5 Finally, we also supplemented TVP's data with findings from other research on perpetrators' sexual frustration problems, fame-seeking motives, and ideological motives (Lankford, 2016;Lankford & Silva, 2024a, 2024bSilva, 2023;Silva & Greene-Colozzi, 2019;Silva & Lankford, 2024). 6 Overall, continuous variables were coded as numbers and binary variables were coded as 1 = yes, 0 = no/no evidence. ...
... Researchers have coded mass shooters as having fame-seeking motives if they overtly admitted it, made statements for widespread dissemination, or followed the path to fame of previous high-profile individuals (Lankford, 2016;Silva & Greene-Colozzi, 2019;Silva & Lankford, 2024). Finally, shooters have been coded as having ideological motives based on their expression of extremist ideologies that were directly associated with the reason for their attack (Lankford & Silva, 2024b;Silva, 2023). ...
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FBI Director Christopher Wray Testifies on January 6 Capitol Attack
  • Wray
Wray, "FBI Director Christopher Wray Testifies on January 6 Capitol Attack";
Statement by Director Christopher Wray Before the U.S. House Select Intelligence Committee Hearing on Global Threats
  • Wray
Wray, "Statement by Director Christopher Wray Before the U.S. House Select Intelligence Committee Hearing on Global Threats."
For critiques of this logic, see: Donald Holbrook and John Horgan
For critiques of this logic, see: Donald Holbrook and John Horgan, "Terrorism and Ideology: Cracking the Nut," Perspectives on Terrorism 13, no. 6 (2019): 2-15;
The Myth of Martyrdom"; Post
  • Lankford
Lankford, "The Myth of Martyrdom"; Post, "Current Understanding of Terrorist Motivation and Psychology";
Muslim Americans: No Signs of Growth in Alienation or Support for Extremism
  • Pew Research
  • Center
Pew Research Center, "Muslim Americans: No Signs of Growth in Alienation or Support for Extremism," August 30, 2011, https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2011/08/30/muslim-americans-no-signs-of-growth-inalienation-or-support-for-extremism/.
Disaggregating Mass Public Shootings
  • Capellan
Capellan et al., "Disaggregating Mass Public Shootings."
Lone Wolf Terrorist or Deranged Shooter
  • Capellan
Capellan, "Lone Wolf Terrorist or Deranged Shooter?";
Current Understanding of Terrorist Motivation and Psychology
  • Lankford
Lankford, "The Myth of Martyrdom"; Neumann, "The Trouble with Radicalization"; Post, "Current Understanding of Terrorist Motivation and Psychology."
Mixing Ideologies Requires Multipronged Terrorism Prevention Efforts (The National Counter Terrorism Center
Joint Counterterrorism Assessment Team, Mixing Ideologies Requires Multipronged Terrorism Prevention Efforts (The National Counter Terrorism Center, Department of Homeland Security, and Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2023);
The Age of Incoherence? Understanding Mixed and Unclear Ideology Extremism (National Counterterrorism Innovation
  • Alexander Meleagrou
  • Hitchens
  • Moustafa Ayad
Alexander Meleagrou-Hitchens and Moustafa Ayad, The Age of Incoherence? Understanding Mixed and Unclear Ideology Extremism (National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Center, 2023);
The Bitter Life and Sudden Death of A.C
  • Rick Anderson
Rick Anderson, "The Bitter Life and Sudden Death of A.C.," Seattle Weekly, April 20, 2017, https://www. seattleweekly.com/news/the-bitter-life-and-sudden-death-of-arcan-cetin/; Adam Taylor, "O. M. May Not Have Understood the Difference Between ISIS, Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah," The Washington Post, June 13, 2016, https:// tinyurl.com/yxf9p5vh.
Where Do 'Mixed, Unclear, and Unstable' Ideologies Come From
  • Baele Brace
Brace, Baele, and Ging, "Where Do 'Mixed, Unclear, and Unstable' Ideologies Come From?";
This seems credible given the "admissions against interest" standard, we found no evidence of extreme ideological interests
  • Ross Gartenstein
  • Blackman
Gartenstein-Ross and Blackman, "Fluidity of the Fringes"; Joint Counterterrorism Assessment Team, Mixing Ideologies Requires www.cnn.com/2021/03/17/us/robert-aaron-long-suspected-shooter/index.html. This seems credible given the "admissions against interest" standard, we found no evidence of extreme ideological interests, and at that point he had little to hide.
The Globalization of American Mass Shootings
  • Lankford Silva
Silva and Lankford, "The Globalization of American Mass Shootings?";
59. Based on the recommendations from the "No Notoriety" campaign and Lankford and Madfis's proposal to deny offenders the attention they often seek, we are not publishing mass shooters' names. Adam Lankford and Eric Madfis
  • Wray
Wray, "Statement by Director Christopher Wray Before the U.S. House Select Intelligence Committee Hearing on Global Threats." 59. Based on the recommendations from the "No Notoriety" campaign and Lankford and Madfis's proposal to deny offenders the attention they often seek, we are not publishing mass shooters' names. Adam Lankford and Eric Madfis, "Don't Name Them, Don't Show Them, but Report Everything Else: A Pragmatic Proposal for Denying Mass Killers the Attention they Seek and Deterring Future Offenders," American Behavioral Scientist 62, no. 2 (2018): 260-79.
A Case Study in Lone-Actor Terrorism
  • N H Poppe
Poppe, N. H.: A Case Study in Lone-Actor Terrorism.
Manifesto of the Charleston Church Shooter, Copy obtained by the authors
  • D R Hansi Lo
  • Wang
D. R., Manifesto of the Charleston Church Shooter, Copy obtained by the authors, 2015; Hansi Lo Wang, "Alleged Shooter Visited Slave Plantations Before Church Shooting," NPR, June 23, 2015, https://tinyurl.com/cz9jvtyf.
has at Least One Black Friend who Denies Alleged Shooter is Racist
  • Daniel Politi
Daniel Politi, "D.R. has at Least One Black Friend who Denies Alleged Shooter is Racist," Slate, June 2015, https:// slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/06/dylann-roof-has-at-least-one-black-friend-who-denies-alleged-shooter-isracist.html.
Almost Didn't Go Through' with Charleston Church Shooting
  • Erik Ortiz
  • Daniel Arkin
Erik Ortiz and Daniel Arkin, "D. R. 'Almost Didn't Go Through' with Charleston Church Shooting," NBC News, June 19, 2015, https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/charleston-church-shooting/dylann-roof-almost-didnt-gothrough-charleston-church-shooting-n378341.
Composite Violent Extremism"; Hafez and Mullins
  • Gartenstein-Ross
Gartenstein-Ross et al., "Composite Violent Extremism"; Hafez and Mullins, "The Radicalization Puzzle"; Holbrook and Horgan, "Terrorism and Ideology";
Influences on the Ideology of E.H. (version 1.3)," School Shooters Info
  • Peter Langman
Peter Langman, "Influences on the Ideology of E.H. (version 1.3)," School Shooters Info, 2016.