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Optimising Disaster Resilience Through Advanced Risk Management and Financial Analysis of Critical Infrastructure in the Serbian Defence Industry

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Nikola Vidović
Nikola Vidović
Nikola Vidović
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Hatidža Beriša at Ministarstvo odbrane Republike Srbije
Hatidža Beriša
Vladimir M. Cvetković at University of Belgrade
Vladimir M. Cvetković
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Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the financial factors and risk management strategies essential for optimizing disaster resilience within the Serbian defence industry's critical infrastructure. The significance of this sector is multi-faceted, impacting national security, economic stability, and technological advancement. Primarily, the Serbian defence industry ensures the preservation of vital defence interests, maintaining Serbia's independence from foreign sources for weapons and military equipment in both peacetime and wartime. Economically, it is a significant employer of the working-age population, directly affecting local employment rates, fostering economic development, and ensuring the sustainable growth of this crucial sector. This, in turn, stimulates broader economic activity and enhances social cohesion while strengthening the national balance of payments through increased export potential. From a technological perspective, the defence industry drives scientific, technological, and industrial development, reinforcing Serbia's global political and military standing within the Western Balkans and on the international stage. Consequently, the paper aims to examine the risk management and protection of the Serbian defence industry's critical infrastructure, offering concrete and actionable measures to improve and develop these systems with a particular emphasis on security. The research's utility and contribution lie in identifying similarities and differences in the operational performance of defence industry companies, a vital segment of the national economy. The presentation of these findings focuses on the protection of critical infrastructure. The results will form the basis for further investigation into the underlying causes of business performance and the effective management of critical infrastructure security.
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Article Not peer-reviewed version
Optimising Disaster Resilience Through
Advanced Risk Management and
Financial Analysis of Critical
Infrastructure in the Serbian Defence
Industry
Nikola Vidovi
ć
, Hatid
ž
a Beri
š
a , Vladimir M. Cvetkovi
ć
*
Posted Date: 16 July 2024
doi: 10.20944/preprints202407.1228.v1
Keywords: disaster risk management; resilience; risk management; financial analysis; critical infrastructure;
security; defence; Serbia
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medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Article
OptimisingDisasterResiliencethroughAdvanced
RiskManagementandFinancialAnalysisofCritical
InfrastructureintheSerbianDefenceIndustry
NikolaVidović1,HatidžaBeriša1,2,VladimirM.Cvetković2,3,4,*
1UniversityofDefence,MilitaryAcademy–Belgrade,RepublicofSerbia;
vidovicnikola.finance@gmail.com(N.V.);berisa.hatidza@gmail.com(H.B.)
2DepartmentofDisasterManagementandEnvironmentalSecurityStudies,FacultyofSecurityStudies,
UniversityofBelgrade,GospodaraVucica50,11040Belgrade,Serbia
3Scientific‐ProfessionalSocietyforDisasterRiskManagement,DimitrijaTucovića121,
11040Belgrade,Serbia
4InternationalInstituteforDisasterResearch,DimitrijaTucovića121,11040Belgrade,Serbia
*Correspondence:vmc@fb.bg.ac.rs
Abstract:Thispaperpresentsacomprehensiveanalysisofthefinancialfactorsandrisk
managementstrategiesessentialforoptimizingdisasterresiliencewithintheSerbiandefence
industryʹscriticalinfrastructure.Thesignificanceofthissectorismulti‐faceted,impactingnational
security,economicstability,andtechnologicaladvancement.Primarily,theSerbiandefence
industryensuresthepreservationofvitaldefenceinterests,maintainingSerbiaʹsindependencefrom
foreignsourcesforweaponsandmilitaryequipmentinbothpeacetimeandwartime.Economically,
itisasignificantemployeroftheworking‐agepopulation,directlyaffectinglocalemploymentrates,
fosteringeconomicdevelopment,andensuringthesustainablegrowthofthiscrucialsector.This,
inturn,stimulatesbroadereconomicactivityandenhancessocialcohesionwhilestrengtheningthe
nationalbalanceofpaymentsthroughincreasedexportpotential.Fromatechnologicalperspective,
thedefenceindustrydrivesscientific,technological,andindustrialdevelopment,reinforcing
SerbiaʹsglobalpoliticalandmilitarystandingwithintheWesternBalkansandontheinternational
stage.Consequently,thepaperaimstoexaminetheriskmanagementandprotectionoftheSerbian
defenceindustryʹscriticalinfrastructure,offeringconcreteandactionablemeasurestoimproveand
developthesesystemswithaparticularemphasisonsecurity.Theresearchʹsutilityandcontribution
lieinidentifyingsimilaritiesanddifferencesintheoperationalperformanceofdefenceindustry
companies,avitalsegmentofthenationaleconomy.Thepresentationofthesefindingsfocuseson
theprotectionofcriticalinfrastructure.Theresultswillformthebasisforfurtherinvestigationinto
theunderlyingcausesofbusinessperformanceandtheeffectivemanagementofcritical
infrastructuresecurity.
Keywords:disasterriskmanagement;resilience;riskmanagement;financialanalysis;critical
infrastructure;security;defence;Serbia
1.Introduction
Nationalsecurity,aswellasoverallsecurity,heavilydependsontherobustnessofcritical
infrastructure.Initiallyviewedasalogisticalfunctionthatsupportsotherlogisticaloperations,
criticalinfrastructurehasgainedprominenceduetotherisingthreatofasymmetricattacks,
particularlyterrorism.Boththeoreticalanalysesandpracticalexperienceshaveshownthatcritical
infrastructuresystems,services,andassets—whetherphysicalorvirtual—arecrucialforsocietal
well‐being.Thedisruptionordestructionofthesesystemscanseverelyimpactcitizensʹhealth,safety,
economicstability,andtheeffectivefunctioningofgovernment(Škero&Ateljević,2015).
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions, and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and
contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting
from any ideas, methods, instructions, or products referred to in the content.
Preprints.org (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 16 July 2024 doi:10.20944/preprints202407.1228.v1
© 2024 by the author(s). Distributed under a Creative Commons CC BY license.
2
Criticalinfrastructurecompriseslarge‐scale,man‐madesystemsthatarecrucialforthe
productionanddistributionofessentialgoodsandservices.Thesesystemsincludebutarenotlimited
to,theprovisionofenergy,water,data,transportation,finance,andhealthcare.Accordingtothe
CouncilDirective2008/114/EC,aninfrastructureisdeemedcriticalifitsincapacitationordestruction
wouldhaveasignificantimpactonpublichealth,safety,security,economicstability,andsocialwell‐
being.Thefailureordisruptionofcriticalinfrastructurecanleadtoseveresocietalandeconomic
repercussions,potentiallycausingcascadingfailuresacrossotherinterconnectedinfrastructures,and
resultingincatastrophicconsequences(Carrerasetal.,2004;Zio,2016).
Recentresearchunderscoresthegrowinginterconnectednessofcriticalinfrastructuresystems,
whichheightenstheirsusceptibilitytobothnaturalandhuman‐madehazards.Forinstance,the
risingintegrationofinformationandcommunicationtechnologieshasintroducednewcyberrisks
thatcouldjeopardizephysicalinfrastructure(Petitetal.,2015).Additionally,climatechangehas
broughtaboutnewchallenges,suchasextremeweatherevents,thatcandisruptessentialservices
anddemandstrongerresilienceplanning(Rinaldietal.,2001).Hence,athoroughapproachtorisk
managementiscrucialtosafeguardingtheseessentialsystemsandmaintainingtheiroperationamid
variousthreats.
Regardingthat,theobjectiveofthispaperistosystematicallyexaminethevulnerabilitiesand
riskfactorsassociatedwiththecriticalinfrastructureoftheSerbiandefenceindustrythrougha
financialperformanceanalysis.Thisstudyreflectsontheinherentcomplexitiesofthesesystems,
identifiesrelatedchallenges,andproposespotentialsolutionsfortheiranalysisandmanagement.
Specifically,thepaperexplorestheframeworkofvulnerabilityandriskanalysisinprotectingand
enhancingtheresilienceofsixkeyentitieswithinSerbiaʹsdefenceindustry.Giventhecomplexityof
thesesystems,thestudyarguesfortheintegrationofvariousmodellingperspectivesandinnovative
analyticalapproaches(Bouchon,2006).Thisintegrationiscrucialforaccuratelycapturingthe
structuralanddynamiccomplexitiesofcriticalinfrastructures,therebyenablingconfidentdecision‐
makingregardingprotectionandresilienceactions(Zio,2016).
2.CriticalInfrastructureResilience:ARiskandVulnerabilityApproach
TheRepublicofSerbiahasawealthofexperienceinhandlingdisasters,particularlythose
stemmingfromelectricalincidents.Inthelasttenyears,thecountryhasrecordedover150,000fires
(Cvetković,Pavlović,&Janković,2021;Cvetković,Pavlović,&Janković,2021;Cvetkovićetal.,2022;
Cvetković &Marković,2021;Cvetković &Janković,2021).Significantincidents,suchasthe2014
floodsinObrenovacandthe2009earthquakesinKraljevo,havedrivenSerbiatoestablisha
comprehensiveprotectionandrescuesystemtoeffectivelyaddressthreatstocriticalnational
resources(Cvetković,Babić,&Gačić,2017;Cvetković,Bošković,&Ocal,2021;Cvetković &
Martinović,2020;Cvetković,2016).Thelegislativeframework,includingtheLawonEmergency
Situationsandvariousstrategicdocuments,laysthegroundworkforadoptingtheCritical
InfrastructureLawandalignswithnumerousEuropeanregulationsinthisarea(Cvetković &
Synodinou,2024;Cvetković,Nikolić,&Lukić,2024;Cvetković,Nikolić,&Lukić,2024;Cvetković&
Šišović,2023;Cvetković&Šišović,2024;Cvetkovićetal.,2021).
Serbiaʹsdefenceindustryʹscriticalinfrastructurefacesnumeroushazards,risks,andthreats,
includingnaturaldisasters,ageingcomponents,increasedloaddemands,climatechange,intentional
attacks,andterrorism.Asaresult,protectingcriticalinfrastructure(CIP)hasbecomeamajorglobal
priority.RegionalcountrieslikeSloveniaandCroatiaareactivelyaddressingtheseissuesthrough
specificlegislationthatoutlinesinstitutionalrolesduringdisasters(Lewis,2006),withafocuson
physicalprotectionandassetreinforcement(Cimellaroetal.,2010).Toprotectthedefenceindustryʹs
criticalinfrastructure,itiscrucialtomodelitscomponentsundervariousthreatsandperform
thoroughriskandvulnerabilityassessmentsatthesystemlevel.
Theimportanceofresilienceincriticalinfrastructure—itsabilitytoendure,adapt,andquickly
recoverfromdisruptions—hasbeenhighlightedbyrecentcatastrophicdisasters(Moteff,2012).The
2005WorldConferenceonDisasterReductionemphasizedtheneedfordisasterresilience,fostering
anewcultureofdisasterresponse(Zio,2016).Systemsmustbenotonlyreliablebutalsocapableof
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3
recoveringfromdisruptions.Governmentpoliciesnowencourageeffortstoensuresystemscan
continueoperatingatsomelevelorreturntofullfunctionalityafteradisruption(Cvetković,
Rikanović,&Knežević;Cvetković &Šišović,2024;Grozdanić &Cvetković,2024).Consequently,
resilienceisnowseenasanessentialattributeforcriticalinfrastructure,integratedintoitsdesign,
operation,andmanagement.Serbiashouldplayasignificantroleinfurtherdefiningandregulating
thisarea.
Thenationalwell‐beingofSerbiaʹsdefenceindustry,alongwithallinterconnectedentitiesand
stakeholders,reliesonsecureandresilientcriticalinfrastructure—resources,systems,andnetworks
crucialfortheseamlessfunctioningofsociety.Toachievesecurityandresilience,critical
infrastructurepartnersmustcollaborativelyprioritizegoals,mitigaterisks,measureprogress,and
adapttochangingconditions(U.S.DHS,2013).AlthoughSerbiahasrecentlyestablishedand
prioritizedcriticalinfrastructurecomparedtotheEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStates,and
neighbouringcountries,substantialeffortsbytheacademic,professional,andscientificcommunities,
alongwithinstitutionalsupport,guidenationaleffortstowardcriticalinfrastructurerisk
management.
Thecommunityinvolvedincriticalinfrastructureriskmanagementisdiverse,including
partnershipsbetweenownersandoperators,governmententitiesatvariouslevels,regional
organizations,non‐profitgroups,andacademia.Effectiveriskmanagementrequiresanintegrated
approachacrossthiscommunity(Carla,2019;Cvetković,2019;Goyal,2019;Mano&Rapaport,2019;
Öcal,2019;Vibhas,Bismark,Ruiyi,Anwaar,&Rajib,2019;Xuesong&Kapucu,2019):a)identify,
deter,detect,disrupt,andprepareforthreatsagainstthestateʹscriticalinfrastructure,includingthe
defencesystem,theMinistryofDefence,theArmedForcesofSerbia,andthedefenceindustry;b)
reducethevulnerabilityofcriticalassets,systems,andnetworkswithinthedefenceindustryandits
externalrelations;c)mitigatethepotentialimpactsofincidentsoradverseeventsoncritical
infrastructure.Thesuccessofthisintegratedapproachdependsonleveragingabroadspectrumof
skills,expertise,andexperiencewithinthecriticalinfrastructurecommunityandrelated
stakeholders.ThishasbecomeincreasinglyevidentinSerbiainrecentyears.Effectiveinformation
sharingamongpartnersiscrucialforbuildingsituationalawarenessandenablingrisk‐based
decision‐making(U.S.DHS,2013).
Traditionally,riskhasbeendefinedasafunctionofthreeelements:thethreatstowhichanasset
issusceptible,theassetʹsvulnerabilitiestothethreat,andthepotentialconsequencesofasset
degradation(Petitetal.,2013).Today,resiliencehasemergedasafourthcomponent,alongside
vulnerability,threat/hazard,andconsequences,formingthecomprehensiveriskfunction.Inthe
contextofcriticalinfrastructure,riskatanasset(suchasanofficebuilding,hangar,factory,or
machinery)foragiventhreat/hazardtypeisafunctionofthethreat/hazardlikelihood(Carlsonetal.,
2012),theassetʹsvulnerability(thelikelihoodofasuccessfulthreatevent),theassetʹsresilience,and
themagnitudeoftheresultingconsequences(Petitetal.,2013).AsdepictedinFigure1,therisk
componentsareinherentlyinterdependent.Whenconsideringathreatorhazard—whether
manmadeornatural—thevulnerabilityandresilienceoftheasset(infrastructure)willdeterminethe
resultantconsequences.Theintrinsiccomplexityofriskisamplifiedbydependenciesand
interdependenciesthataffectthecomponentsofrisk(Petitetal.,2015).Intodayʹsinterconnected
world,thepotentialimpactsareexacerbatedbythesedependenciesandthediverserangeofthreats
capableofexploitingthem.Criticalinfrastructurenowspansnationalbordersandglobalsupply
chains,acrucialpointinthiscasestudy.
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Figure1.Theinterdependenceofriskcomponents:acomprehensiveanalysisoftheirinterconnected
natureandimplicationsforeffectiveriskmanagement.
Withinthecontextoftheriskframeworkdepicted,policy,andoperatingenvironments,the
structuresofcriticalinfrastructuresectorsandcross‐sectorpartnershipsprovideaframeworkto
guidethecollectiveeffortsofpartners.Thenationalefforttoenhancecriticalinfrastructuresecurity
andresiliencereliesontheabilityofpublicandprivatecriticalinfrastructureownersandoperators
tomakerisk‐informeddecisionswhenallocatinglimitedresourcesduringbothsteady‐stateandcrisis
operations(U.S.DHS,2013).Thecomplexanduncertainriskenvironmentaffectingcritical
infrastructure,particularlythedefenceindustry,hasevolvedsignificantlyoverthepastdecade.Daily
threatstovitalstateentitieshavebecomeincreasinglyrelevant,asevidencedbydevelopments
globally,regionally,andinSerbiaʹssouthernprovince.Forexample,criticalinfrastructurethathas
longfacedphysicalthreatsandnaturaldisastersisnowincreasinglyexposedtocyberrisks,
stemmingfromtheintegrationofinformationandcommunicationtechnologieswithcritical
infrastructureoperationsandthehostileexploitationofpotentialcybervulnerabilities.
Asthenumberofthreatsinmodernanalysesandpracticecontinuestogrow,protectingcritical
infrastructurebecomesincreasinglyimportant(CarlaS.,2019;Cvetković,2019;Frosdick,1997;
Kumiko&Shaw,2019;Öcal,2019;Perić&Cvetković,2019;Vibhasetal.,2019).Thisprotectionis
crucialnotonlybecauseofthepotentialdamagetotheinfrastructureitselfbutalsobecauseofthe
broadersocietalandeconomicconsequencessuchdamagecancause.Protectingcritical
infrastructureduringemergenciesshouldbeviewedaspartofacomprehensivepreventionprocess
andemergencyresponsestrategy.Inthiscontext,organizationsestablish,implement,andmaintain
procedurestoidentifypotentialincidentsthatcouldnegativelyimpactthem,theiractivities,andthe
environment(Cvetković,2024b).Theseproceduresaimtoprotectlivesandproperty,prevent
emergenciesordisasters,minimizeoperationaldowntime,recovercriticalactivities,returntonormal
operations,andsafeguardtheorganizationʹsreputation.AsRinaldi,Peerenboom,andKellynote,“It
isimpossibletoadequatelyanalyzeorunderstandthebehaviourofagiveninfrastructure
[organization]inisolationfromtheenvironmentorotherinfrastructures”(Rinaldi,Peerenboom,and
Kelly,2001).Criticalinfrastructureconstantlyinteractswithitsenvironment,utilizingand
transforminginputsfromtheenvironmenttoprovideoutputsbacktoit.Figure1illustrateshowthe
criticalinfrastructureofSerbiaʹsdefenceindustryinfluencesandinteractswithitsenvironment.
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5
Figure2.InfluenceandinteractionbetweencriticalinfrastructureofSerbiandefenceindustryand
environment.
Theseinteractionscanbeclassifiedintothreemaincategories:a)upstreamdependencies:which
refertotheessentialproductsorservicesprovidedtooneinfrastructurebyanotherexternal
infrastructure.InthecontextoftheSerbiandefenceindustry,thereisadirectdependencyon
companiesandentitiesthatsupplyvitalrawmaterials,supplies,andresourcesfortheproductionof
weaponsandmilitaryequipment.Additionally,theseexternalentitiesofferservicesthatthedefence
industrycannotprovideindependently.
Protectingtheseupstreamdependenciesfromvariousrisksandthreatsacrossalloperational
domainsiscrucial;b)internaldependencies:involvetheinteractionsamongtheinternaloperations,
functions,andmissionswithintheinfrastructureitself.Internaldependenciesaretheinternal
connectionsamongtheassetsthatmakeupcriticalinfrastructure.Forexample,theproductionof
ammunitionat“PrviPartizan”a.d.Užiceisdirectlyreliantonthepropulsionmachineryandthe
mouldsthatdeterminethecalibre;c)downstreamdependencies:Thesepertaintotheeffectsona
criticalinfrastructure’sconsumersorrecipientsresultingfromthedegradationoftheresources
providedbythatinfrastructure.Inamorespecificsense,theMinistryofDefenceandallunitsofthe
SerbianArmedForceswouldbedirectlyimpacted.Inabroadersense,theentirestate,thepopulation,
theenvironment,andthefunctioningofinterstateentitiesandorganizationswouldalsobeaffected.
3.ImprovingNationalEffortsforStrengtheningtheSecurityofCriticalInfrastructure
Thegovernment,particularlythroughtheMinistryofDefenceandthedefenceindustrysector,
hasavestedinterestinensuringtherobustnessofcriticalinfrastructureandthecontinuousprovision
ofessentialservicesunderallconditions.Ownersandoperatorsofcriticalinfrastructureoftenstand
togainthemostfrominvestingintheirsecurityandresilience.Theyaremotivatedbyboththedirect
benefitsandasenseofsocialresponsibilitytoadoptthesepractices.However,productionsectors
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6
andcompaniesmayberightfullyconcernedaboutthereturnoninvestmentsinsecurityand
resilience,asthesemaynotyieldimmediatelymeasurablebenefits.Effectiveincentivescanhelp
justifythecostsassociatedwithenhancedsecurityandresiliencebybalancingshort‐termexpenses
withnear‐termbenefits(U.S.DHS,2013).
Market‐basedincentivescandrivesignificantchangesinbusinesspracticesandfosterthe
developmentofmarketssuchasinsuranceforcyber,chemical,biological,orradiologicalrisks.
Additionally,theRepublicofSerbiaandlocalgovernmentscanexploreofferingincentivesto
encourageinvestmentinsecurityandresiliencemeasures.Effectivemeasuresandactivitiesfor
implementationinclude:a)continuouslyidentifying,analyzing,and,whereappropriate,
implementingincentives;b)supportingresearchanddatacollectiontoquantifythepotentialcosts
resultingfrominadequatecriticalinfrastructuresecurityandresilience,andinsufficientcyber
preparedness;c)establishinginnovationchallengeprogramstoincentivizenewsolutionsfor
strengtheninginfrastructuresecurityandresilienceduringtheplanning,design,andredesign
phases,includingtechnological,engineering,andprocessimprovements.
Thedependenciesandinterdependenciesofcriticalinfrastructurerepresentcomplexelements
thatarechallengingtoidentifyandanalyze.Theyarecharacterizedbyvariousinteractions(e.g.,
upstream,internal,anddownstream),classes(e.g.,physical,cyber,logical,andgeoFigureic),and
dimensions(e.g.,operatingenvironment,couplingandresponsebehaviour,typeoffailure,
infrastructurecharacteristics,andstateofoperation).Thesefactorsinfluenceallcomponentsofrisk
(threat/hazard,vulnerability,resilience,andconsequence),canthemselvesbecomethreatsor
hazards,affecttheresilienceandprotectionperformanceofcriticalinfrastructure,andleadto
cascadingandescalatingfailures.Itisessentialtointegratedependenciesandinterdependenciesinto
riskandresiliencemethodologies.
Adata‐drivencapabilitythatoperationalizestheanalysisofdependenciesand
interdependencieswouldnotonlyprovideanunprecedentedlevelofsituationalawarenessbutalso
enabledecision‐makerstoanticipatedisruptions.Achievingthisultimategoalrequiresthe
developmentofacomprehensiveandinteractiveassessmentofcriticalinfrastructuredependencies
andinterdependencies.Thisnecessitatesthecombinationofmultipleareasofexpertise(e.g.,
engineering,socialsciences,businesscontinuity,andemergencymanagement)withinanadaptive
andflexibleassessmentframework(Petitetal.,2015).
Furthermore,theintegrationofadvancedtechnologiesandinnovativemethodologiesplaysa
crucialroleinenhancingthesecurityandresilienceofcriticalinfrastructure(VladimirCvetković,
2024a,2024b).Emergingtechnologiessuchasartificialintelligence,machinelearning,andbigdata
analyticscanbeleveragedtopredictandmitigatepotentialrisksmoreeffectively(V.Cvetković&
Filipović,2017).Byutilizingthesetechnologies,criticalinfrastructuresystemscanbenefitfromreal‐
timemonitoring,predictivemaintenance,andautomatedresponsemechanismsthatcansignificantly
reducevulnerabilitiesandenhanceoverallresilience.Additionally,collaborationwithinternational
partnersandparticipationinglobalinitiativescanprovidevaluableinsightsandbestpractices,
fosteringamorecomprehensiveapproachtocriticalinfrastructureprotection(Baruh,Dey,&Dutta,
2023;V.M.Cvetković,2023;El‐Mougher,AbuSharekh,AbuAli,&Zuhud,2023;Rajani,Tuhin,&
Rina,2023;Sudar,Cvetković,&Ivanov,2024).TheRepublicofSerbia,byembracingthese
advancementsandfosteringacultureofcontinuousimprovement,canstrengthenitsnationalefforts
tosecureandsustainitscriticalinfrastructure,ultimatelycontributingtothestabilityandprosperity
ofthenation(Cvetković&Kezunović,2021;Hromada&Lukas,2012;Murray&Grubesic,2012).
4.ComprehensiveFinancialAnalysisofEntitiesintheDefenceIndustry
TheDefenceIndustrialBaseSectorinSerbiaisthenationalindustrialcomplexresponsiblefor
researchanddevelopment,design,production,delivery,andmaintenanceofmilitaryweapons
systems,subsystems,andcomponentsorparts.Thiscomplexaimstomeetthemilitaryrequirements
oftheSerbianArmedForces,thirdcountries,anddevelopingnations,aswellassomeofthemost
powerfularmiesworldwide,includingtheU.S.militaryandsecuritysectors(Table1).Thedefence
industryinSerbiacomprisesnumerouscompaniesengagedintheproductionandtradeofweapons,
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7
militaryequipment,anddual‐purposegoods(itemsusableforbothmilitaryandcivilianpurposes).
Thesecompaniesarebothstate‐ownedandprivatelyowned(Radić&Radić,2018).TheMinistryof
DefenceoftheRepublicofSerbiahassignificantauthorityoverthemajorityofstate‐owned
companies,managingandsupervisingtheiroperationsfollowingtheLawonDefence.
Table1.ComparativeFinancialAnalysisofSerbianDefenceIndustryCompanies(2014‐2017).Source:
Authors’calculationbasedonfinancialreports.
No.123456
Companyof
Serbiandefence
industry
Holding
corporation
ʺKrušikʺa.d.
ʺMilan
Blagojević‐
Namenskaʺa.d.
ʺPrvaIskra
namenskaʺ
a.d.
ʺPrvi
Partizanʺ
a.d.
ʺSlobodaʺ
a.d.
ʺZastava
oružjeʺa.d.
CityValjevoLučaniBarič UžiceČačakKragujevac
INDICATORRATIOOFCURRENTLIQUIDITY
Business
year
20140.98710.83612.30031.26671.08890.7228
20150.98620.72592.59651.36801.02590.6938
20160.99190.78951.93661.77821.02790.5769
20170.97390.91513.31621.79240.98130.5768
INDICATORBUSINESSPROFITRATIO
Business
year
2014‐0.01810.1490‐0.09720.08010.1565‐0.0407
20150.14000.1376‐0.04810.17020.02490.0675
20160.09710.17450.16500.16660.1607‐0.0335
20170.11840.23400.14760.04240.1052‐0.0128
INDICATORTURNOVERRATIOOFTOTALASSETS
Business
year
20140.32770.47950.26020.60150.43980.2725
20150.47350.56700.29270.71620.38230.2800
20160.47010.71960.69470.68200.50340.2298
20170.75340.69270.72220.40680.57520.1989
INDICATORDEBTRATIO
Business
year
20140.28960.47830.61730.54360.43550.2538
20150.27600.46780.66220.59860.42290.1961
20160.21070.50020.72710.68940.37870.1262
20170.18200.52380.68040.46190.36590.0863
INDICATORLEVERAGE
Business
year
20143.45292.09071.62001.83962.29623.9401
20153.62322.13751.51021.67042.36475.1001
20164.74721.99931.37541.45062.64077.9249
20175.49341.90931.46972.16482.733311.5905
INDICATORROE(ReturnonEquity)
Business
year
2014‐0.16170.00870.01360.12410.0073‐0.4573
20150.10760.01460.00760.21890.0149‐0.0617
20160.20560.13720.03540.16040.1143‐0.3887
20170.34820.24180.10460.07010.0850‐0.3132
INDICATORROA(ReturnonAssets)
Preprints.org (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 16 July 2024 doi:10.20944/preprints202407.1228.v1
8
Business
year
2014‐0.00590.0714‐0.02530.04820.0688‐0.0111
20150.06630.0780‐0.01410.12190.00950.0189
20160.04560.12560.11460.11370.0809‐0.0077
20170.08920.16210.10660.01730.0605‐0.0025
Aspecialgroupcalledthe“DefenceIndustryofSerbia,”whichincludessevenstate‐owned
enterprises,isallocatedbytheMinistryofDefence(MinistryofDefence,report,2018).These
companiesareHK“Krušik”a.d.Valjevo,“MilanBlagojević–namenska”a.d.Lučani,“PrvaIskra”
a.d.Barič,“Prvipartizan”a.d.Užice,“Sloboda”a.d.Čačak,“Zastavaoružje”a.d.Kragujevac,and
“Yugoimport”SDPR(Figure3).Beyondthisgroup,another216companies,licensedforthe
productionandtradeofweaponsandmilitaryequipment,cooperatecloselywiththededicated
defenceindustry(MinistryofTrade,Tourism,andTelecommunications,2018).Thesecompanies,
whichincludenumerousinstitutesandfacultiesfromtheprofessionalandacademiccommunityas
subcontractors,varyinownershipstructure,corebusiness,andsize.Predominantlysmall
enterprises,andtoalesserextentmedium‐sizedenterprises,theyaremostlyprivatelyownedand
collectivelyemployaround8,000people.
ThissecondsegmentoftheSerbiandefenceindustryincludescompaniesprimarilybelonging
tothemetalcomplex,electrocomplex,andchemicalcomplex.Theseentities,alongwiththe
aforementionedsevenprimaryfactories,formarobustindustrialbasefordefencecapacities.The
thirdsegmentfocusesonthedevelopmentandenhancementofresourcesandcomprisestheMilitary
TechnicalInstitute,theTechnicalExpertCenter,andthreetechnicalrepairinstituteswithinthe
defencesystem,namelytheMinistryofDefenceandtheArmyofSerbia.
Figure3.CurrentLiquidityRatio:AComprehensiveMeasureofFinancialHealthandShort‐term
Solvency.Source:Authors.
Nowadaysworldismovingrapidlytowardglobalization,andthefactisthatbusiness
performanceevaluationofthedefenceindustry’scompaniesthroughfinancialanalysisits
importance.Thefinancialratiosinvolvedinthisresearch,provideusefulquantitativeandqualitative
financialinformationsowecanevaluatetheoperationofadefenceindustryenterpriseandanalyze
itsfinancialpositionwithinasector(Figure4).
2014 2015 2016 2017
0.0000
0.5000
1.0000
1.5000
2.0000
2.5000
3.0000
3.5000
HoldingcorporationʺKrušikʺa.d. ʺMilanBlagojević‐Namenskaʺa.d. ʺPrvaIskranamenskaʺa.d.
ʺPrviPartizanʺa.d. ʺSlobodaʺa.d. ʺZastavaoružjeʺa.d.
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Figure4.AnalysisofBusinessProfitRatio.Source:Authors.
Thistypeofanalyticfinancialresearchbringsawarenesstomanagersastowhichfeaturesthey
havetofocuson.AsshowninTable1,financialanalysiswascarriedoutfor6companiesfromthe
groupʺDefenceIndustryofSerbiaʺ intheperiodfrom31December2014to31December2017
businessyear,where,basedontheindicatorsofprofitability,indebtedness,liquidityandbusiness
efficiency,wecanvalorizetheachievedresultsandperceivethefinancialpositionofthecompanies
concerned.Atthesametime,wecanalsoseetheriskofbusinessassetsandcapital,aswellasthe
sustainabilityofthesecompaniesʹoperations.
‐0.1500
‐0.1000
‐0.0500
0.0000
0.0500
0.1000
0.1500
0.2000
0.2500
0.3000
2014 2015 2016 2017
HoldingcorporationʺKrušikʺa.d. ʺMilanBlagojević‐Namenskaʺa.d.
ʺPrvaIskranamenskaʺa.d. ʺPrviPartizanʺa.d.
ʺSlobodaʺa.d. ʺZastavaoružjeʺa.d.
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Figure5.TotalAssetTurnoverRatioAnalysis.Source:Authors.
Theresearchfindingshavedemonstratedtheimpactofstructuralanddynamicchangesin
balancesheetsandincomestatementsonthebusinessperformanceoftheanalyzedsubjects.Financial
ratios,servingasreliableindicators,revealspecifictrendsinbusinessoperationsandprovidecritical
signalsformakinginformedbusinessdecisionswithinthecompany.Theseratiosnotonlytrackthe
historicalperformancebutalsopredictfuturetrends,enablingmanagementtoidentifypotential
opportunitiesandrisks.Asaresult,theyformanessentialpartofthestrategicdecision‐making
process,guidingcompaniestowardsustainablegrowthandoperationalefficiency.
Thefinancialleverageindicatorshowsthevalueoftotalcapital(totalliabilities)supportedina
monetaryunitofashareholderorowncapital,andatthesametime,thepurposefulnessofthesame
isreflectedinthefactthatitlimitstheexcessiverelianceonborrowingtominimizerisk‐takinginthe
searchforhigheryields.Indicatorvaluesinenterprises“MilanBlagojević‐namenska”a.d.and“Prva
iskranamenska”a.d.haveadownwardtrend,withasmalllevelofvariationofvalue.Aconstant
trendofgrowthofthiscoefficientwasobservedin“Zastavaoružje”a.d.,andintheotherentitiesof
theSerbiandefenceindustrysomelevelofvariations,whichisshowninFigure6.
0.0000 0.5000 1.0000 1.5000 2.0000 2.5000 3.0000 3.5000 4.0000
2014
2015
2016
2017
HoldingcorporationʺKrušikʺa.d. ʺMilanBlagojević‐Namenskaʺa.d. ʺPrvaIskranamenskaʺa.d.
ʺPrviPartizanʺa.d. ʺSlobodaʺa.d. ʺZastavaoružjeʺa.d.
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Figure6.LeverageAnalysis.Source:Authors.
Theindicatorsreturnonequity‐ROEandreturnonassets–ROA,representtheindicatorsof
profitability,thatis,theperformanceofthebusiness,inwhichthevaluesofthesearespecifically
reducedtotherequirementtoachievethemaximumprofitandreturnfromtheleastengagedfunds
inthebusinessprocess.TherateofROEisthereturnoncapitalinvested,whichisobtainedwhenthe
operatingresultisallocatedtothecapital,ieitisanindicatoroftheprofitabilityofowncapital.
Thisindicatorshowshowmuchprofitisgeneratedontheinvestedequitycapital,orhowmuch
thecompanywillearnbyinvestingtheinvestedfundsoftheshareholders.ThehighestlevelofROE
hasentreprice“Krušik”a.d.,thenfollow“MilanBlagojević –namenska”a.d.and“Prvaiskra
namenska”a.d.withconstantgrowth,whichindicatesgreatbusinessoperations,andsustain
developmentofthecompanies.Greatvariationsofindicatorsduringtheresearchedperiodhave
“Prvipartisan”a.d.,acompanywhichhadgreatbusinessresultsin2014and2015,and“Sloboda”
a.d.Thelowestvalue,aswecanseeinFigure6has“Zastavaoružje”.,withconstantnegativeresults.
Thisisduetolargecustomerreceivables,wherebycurrentliabilitiescannotbesettled,whichinturn
affectsthecompanyʹsfinalbusinessresultandincome(Figure7).
0.0000
2.0000
4.0000
6.0000
8.0000
10.0000
12.0000
14.0000
2014 2015 2016 2017
HoldingcorporationʺKrušikʺa.d. ʺMilanBlagojević‐Namenskaʺa.d.
ʺPrvaIskranamenskaʺa.d. ʺPrviPartizanʺa.d.
ʺSlobodaʺa.d. ʺZastavaoružjeʺa.d.
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Figure7.ReturnonEquity(ROE):AnIn‐DepthAnalysis.
Therateofreturnontotalassetsisthereturnontheinvestedassets,iethetotalassetsinvolved,
iethedegreeofefficiency.Thisindicatorshowshowmuchthecompanyʹsmanagementmanages
effectivelytomaximizeprofits(Figure8).
Figure8.Returnonassets(ROA).Source:Authors.
‐0.5000
‐0.4000
‐0.3000
‐0.2000
‐0.1000
0.0000
0.1000
0.2000
0.3000
0.4000
2014 2015 2016 2017
HoldingcorporationʺKrušikʺa.d. ʺMilanBlagojević‐Namenskaʺa.d.
ʺPrvaIskranamenskaʺa.d. ʺPrviPartizanʺa.d.
ʺSlobodaʺa.d. ʺZastavaoružjeʺa.d.
‐0.0500
0.0000
0.0500
0.1000
0.1500
0.2000
2014 2015 2016 2017
HoldingcorporationʺKrušikʺa.d. ʺMilanBlagojević‐Namenskaʺa.d. ʺPrvaIskranamenskaʺa.d.
ʺPrviPartizanʺa.d. ʺSlobodaʺa.d. ʺZastavaoružjeʺa.d.
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Comparativeadvantageisthesystematizationofexperienceinaroundedcycleofindependent
developmentandproductionofawiderangeofassets,weaponsandmilitaryequipment,aswellas
complexcombatsystems.Knowledgeofstandardsfordevelopmentandtechnologiesforthe
productionofEasternandWesternorigin.High‐qualityhumancapitalisalsodistinguishedby
dedicatedindustries.
AsillustratedinTable2,theanalysisofemploymentbasedonannualfinancialstatements,
publiclyavailableontheBusinessRegistersAgencyʹswebsite,revealsanotabletrend.Duringthe
periodfrom2015to2017,thelevelofemploymentintheanalyzedcompanieswithinSerbiaʹsdefence
industryincreasedbyapproximately30%,whichisanextremelypositivedevelopment.Thedefence
industrydirectlyemploysover10,000individuals,andwhenconsideringitscooperativecompanies,
thisnumberexceeds20,000people.Economically,thisindustryʹsrestructuringandtherisingdemand
forbothprofessionalandjuniorpersonnelsignificantlybenefittheentireSerbianeconomyby
fosteringsustainabledevelopment.
Table2.AnalysisofEmploymentLevelsinSerbiaʹsLeadingDefenceIndustryCompaniesDuringthe
2015‐2017BusinessYears.
No.123456
TOTAL
Companyof
Serbiandefence
industry
Holding
corporation
ʺKrušikʺa.d.
ʺMilan
Blagojević‐
Namenskaʺ
a.d.
ʺPrvaIskra
namenskaʺ
a.d.
ʺPrvi
Partizanʺ
a.d.
ʺSlobodaʺ
a.d.
ʺZastava
oružjeʺa.d.
CityValjevoLučaniBarič Užice ČačakKragujevac
INDICATOREmployment
Business
year
201513851121149933162123007509
2016192212021511541180323758994
20172615129715215462015242210047
Fromtheperspectiveofcriticalinfrastructuresecurity,theSerbiandefenceindustryhasmade
substantialeffortsinrecentyears,drawingfrompastexperiencesanddisasters.Theseeffortsare
focusedonmodernizingexistingprotectioncapacities,withactiveparticipationfromSerbiaʹs
professionalandacademiccommunities.Thismodernizationnotonlyenhancestheindustryʹs
resiliencebutalsosupportsbroadernationalsecurityobjectives.
4.RecommendationsforEnhancingtheSecurityandResilienceofCriticalInfrastructurein
SerbiaʹsDefenceIndustry
Thefollowingrecommendationsaimtobolsterthesecurityandresilienceofcritical
infrastructurewithinSerbiaʹsdefenceindustry,ensuringrobustprotectionandsustained
functionality:
a) Continuouslyidentify,analyze,andimplementincentivestojustifythecostsofimproved
securityandresilience;
b) Balanceshort‐termexpenseswithnear‐termbenefitstosupportadditionalinvestments;
c) Developmarket‐basedincentivestodrivesignificantchangesinbusinesspracticesandfoster
marketsforinsuranceagainstcyber,chemical,biological,andradiologicalrisks;
d) Supportresearchanddatacollectiontoquantifythepotentialcostsofinadequate
infrastructuresecurity,resilience,andcyberpreparedness;
e) Utilizecollecteddatatoenhanceriskmanagementstrategiesandenabledata‐drivendecision‐
making;
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f) Establishinnovationchallengeprogramstoincentivizenewsolutionsforinfrastructure
securityandresilienceduringtheplanning,design,andredesignphases;
g) Collaboratewithinternationalpartnersandparticipateinglobalinitiativestogainvaluable
insightsandbestpractices;
h) Applyemergingtechnologiessuchasartificialintelligence,machinelearning,andbigdata
analyticstopredictandmitigatepotentialrisksmoreeffectively;
i) Usethesetechnologiesforreal‐timemonitoring,predictivemaintenance,andautomated
responsemechanismstoreducevulnerabilitiesandenhanceresilience;
j) ContinuenationaleffortsinSerbiatoproposearesilienceassessmentframeworkforcritical
infrastructures,focusingonriskassessmenttoaddressidentifiedgaps;
k) Ensurethisframeworkcapturesinterdependenciesacrossdifferentinfrastructures,sectors,
andborders,withaparticularfocusonresilience;
l) Promoteeffectiveinformationsharingamongpartnerstobuildsituationalawarenessand
enablerisk‐baseddecision‐making;
m) Fostercollaborationbetweeninfrastructureownersandoperators,governmententities,
academia,andnon‐profitstoensuresuccessfulriskmanagement;
n) Achieveconsensusoncommonriskmetricsacrosssectorstoensureconsistencyand
effectivenessinmeasuringandmanagingrisks;
o) HarmonizethenationalriskassessmentframeworkwithEUpoliciesandstrategiesforcritical
infrastructure;
p) Recognizetherapidintegrationofthedefenceindustryintoeconomicflowsasavitalelement
ofSerbiaʹsnationalsecuritypolicy;
q) AlignwithEuropeanstandardsandregulations,andestablishpreventiveandcontrol
mechanismsforcriticaldefenceinfrastructuretomaintainSerbiaʹsdefence,security,and
foreignpolicyinterests;
r) Developmechanismstoprotectcriticalinfrastructurefromglobal,regional,andinternal
threats,makingthisanationalsecuritypriorityforSerbia;
s) Byimplementingtheserecommendations,Serbiacansignificantlyenhanceitseffortsto
secureandsustaincriticalinfrastructure,contributingtonationalstabilityandprosperity.
Byimplementingtheserecommendations,Serbiacansignificantlyenhanceitseffortstosecure
andsustaincriticalinfrastructure,contributingtonationalstabilityandprosperity.
5.Conclusions
Theimpactofinfrastructuredisruptionistypicallyquantifiedintermsofaggregatedfigures
thatrepresenteconomiclosses.Thisapproachallowspolicymakerstoevaluatevariousdisruption
scenarios,includingcascadingeffectsacrosssectors,andtoassessthecostsandbenefitsofmitigation
measures(Giannopoulosetal.,2012).Acomprehensiveriskassessmentisachievablewhenthe
impactdataiscombinedwiththelikelihoodofthesescenarios.Withoutthisinformation,theanalysis
remainsanimpactassessmentandcannoteffectivelyprioritizeriskmitigationmeasures,especially
forHighImpactLowProbability(HILF)events.Asignificantchallengeforriskassessment
methodologiesistoaddressthesegapsanddevelopaharmonizedframeworkatthenationallevel,
extendingtothedefenceindustry.
Suchaframeworkshouldaccuratelycaptureinterdependenciesacrossdifferent
infrastructures,sectors,andborders—acriticalrequirementfortheWestBalkancountriesin
coordinationwithEUcriticalinfrastructurepoliciesandstrategies.Additionally,theremustbe
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consensusonacommonriskmetricacrosssectors.Insummary,riskassessmentforcritical
infrastructuresshouldbeanintegralpartofabroaderframework,withresilienceanalysisas
theprimarytool.ThecontinuationofthisworkatthenationallevelinSerbiashouldfocuson
proposingaresilienceassessmentframeworkforcriticalinfrastructures,whereriskassessment
servesasasubsettobridgethegapsidentifiedinthisresearch.
Thesocialandeconomicstabilityoftheworldnowheavilyreliesonthereliablesupplyofbasic
goodsandservices,transportedanddistributedthroughextensivetechnologicalnetwork
infrastructures.Nationalsecuritytodaydependssignificantlyonthesecapacities,includingthe
smoothfunctioningofthedefenceindustryʹscomplexes,asseeninSerbia.Thesecritical
infrastructuresaresubjecttopotentialdisruptivefactorsfromhazardousnaturalandhuman
environments,suchastheglobalpoliticalclimate,humancapital,financialcrises,severe
damage,explosionsinwarehouses,andorganized(cyber)crimeorcyberwarfare(Zio,2016).
TheinfrastructuresystemswithintheSerbiandefenceindustryareexposedtonumerous
externalandinternalinfluences,creatingapotentialbasefromwhichdangeroushazardsand
harmfuleventscanquicklyandgloballyspreadthroughoutthesystem.Thishasincreased
systemicriskexposure,characterizedbycascadingfailuresthatcansignificantlyimpactboth
nationalandregionallevels.Indeed,significantdisruptionshavehighlightedtheneedforthe
protectionandresilienceofcriticalinfrastructuresasanationalandinternationalpriority.
Inconclusion,theintegrity,economic,andsecuritystabilityofSerbiaiscloselytiedtothestate
anddevelopmentalpotentialofthedefenceindustry.Itsrapiddevelopmentandintegration
intonationalandinternationaleconomicflows,throughtheacquisitionofnewtechnologies,
hasbeenrecognizedasavitalelementofSerbiaʹsnationalsecuritypolicy.Aligningwith
Europeanstandardsandregulations,andestablishingpreventiveandcontrolmechanismsfor
criticaldefenceinfrastructure,arefundamentalprerequisitesformaintainingtheintegrityof
defence,security,andforeignpolicyinterests,aswellasenhancingtheoverallcredibilityof
Serbia.Giventhecontextofglobal,regional,andinternalthreats,developingadequate
mechanismsfortheprotectionofcriticalinfrastructurehasbecomeanationalsecuritypriority
forSerbia.
Funding:ThisresearchwasfundedbytheScientific–ProfessionalSocietyforDisasterRiskManagement,
Belgrade(hps://upravljanje‐rizicima.com/,accessedon10July2024)andtheInternationalInstitutefor
DisasterResearch(hps://idr.edu.rs/,accessedon10July2024),Belgrade,Serbia.
ConflictsofInterest:Theauthorsdeclarenoconflictsofinterest.
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Harmonization of Soft Power and Institutional Skills: Montenegro's Path to Accession to the European Union in the Environmental Sector
Article
Full-text available
  • Jun 2024
This research investigates the alignment of soft power and institutional skills in Montenegro's journey towards accession to the European Union (EU), with a particular focus on the environmental sector. An online survey targeting individuals employed in state institutions directly engaged in negotiation processes, notably the Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism and the Agency for Nature and Environmental Protection, was conducted. The research conducted an online survey, distributed before and after the summer recess to accommodate the transition of power following parliamentary elections, aimed at assessing the effectiveness of current personnel and identifying areas for improvement in staffing and negotiation strategies within Montenegro's environmental sector. Employing diverse methodologies, the survey's analysis delved into the demographic, social, and professional backgrounds of respondents. It explored their roles within institutions, involvement in environmental negotiations, and possession of relevant skills and expertise. Furthermore, respondents' knowledge of environmental issues, legislation, and challenges facing the country was assessed to gauge institutional capacity for environmental governance. Demographic data, including gender, age, education and regional origin, were collected to understand gender-specific attitudes and regional disparities in environmental perspectives. The sample of 84 individuals, comprising executives and employees from both institutions, provided insights into the age structure and regional diversity of personnel involved in negotiation tasks for Chapter 27. The selection of the Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism and the Agency for Nature and Environmental Protection reflects their pivotal roles in shaping Montenegro's environmental policies and addressing climate change challenges. This study aims to illuminate the dynamics of environmental governance within Montenegro's state administration, contributing to the country's path towards EU accession. The research findings highlight the critical need for Montenegro to prioritize strategic initiatives in personnel management, skill development, and institutional capacity-building within its environmental sector. The implications of this research extend beyond academia to inform policymaking and societal action, emphasizing the urgency for Montenegro to bolster its environmental sector capabilities, fostering both EU alignment and sustainable governance practices for the benefit of present and future generations.
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Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia
Article
Full-text available
  • May 2024
Integrated disaster risk reduction in schools represents a key component of safety strategies within the educational sector of every country. The aim of this study is to comprehensively explore the impact of various demographic and socio-economic factors on the perceptions of students and teachers regarding disaster risk reduction and safety in schools. This study is distinguished by its extensive empirical approach, employing a multistage random sampling method to conduct 850 face-to-face interviews (650 with students and 200 with teachers) throughout 2023 in 10 out of the total 18 municipalities in the Western Morava Basin of the Republic of Serbia. Two structured survey instruments were developed, incorporating a mix of qualitative (closed-ended) multiple-choice questions and five-point Likert scales. The research proposes two central hypotheses regarding school-based disaster risk reduction. Firstly, it suggests that gender, age, parent’s employment, academic achievement, living situation, parental education levels, and engagement with social media collectively influence students’ perspectives on this matter (H1–H8). Secondly, it posits that gender, age, marital status, parenthood, and educational background significantly impact teachers’ viewpoints on school-based disaster risk reduction (H1–H5). Multivariate linear regression was used to explore predictors of students’ and teachers’ insights on school-based disaster risk reduction. Various statistical tests, including Chi-square, t-tests, one-way ANOVA, and Pearson’s correlation, were employed to investigate the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on these insights. The results of multivariate regression analyses indicate that age, gender, and marital status emerge as the primary predictors across various facets of students’ and teachers’ insights on school-based disaster risk reduction, including awareness of disasters, disaster education activities, attitudes toward disaster risk reduction education, and enhancement of disaster information accessibility. The findings of this study provide comprehensive insights into the key factors influencing students’ and teachers’ perceptions of disaster risk reduction in schools. This research not only contributes to the academic discourse on disaster education but also serves as a foundational basis for improving educational programs, developing policies and strategies, refining normative educational frameworks, guiding teacher training, and informing further research in disaster education.
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Exploring Multifaceted Factors Influencing Community Resilience to Earthquake-Induced Geohazards: Insights from Montenegro
Book
Full-text available
  • Apr 2024
This scientific monograph stems from a deep interest in the resilience of local communities to natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, which pose one of the greatest challenges humanity faces. In our quest to explore the multifaceted factors influencing this crucial dimension of societal preparedness, we focused on Montenegro, a country located in the seismic active zone of the Mediterranean. Through an in-depth analysis of various aspects, we aim to contribute to a better understanding of the factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and provide guidance for the development of effective strategies and programs. Our research mission aims to identify key factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and analyze the prerequisites for the development and implementation of various strategies and programs that would enhance the situation in this area. In doing so, we rely on an interdisciplinary approach, integrating insights from various scientific disciplines to gain a deeper understanding of the complexity of this issue. In this context, we consider demographic, socioeconomic, and psychological factors influencing the resilience of local communities to earthquakes. We understand that resilience is not only the result of technical preparations but also of deeper social, economic, and psychological dynamics. Through a systematic analysis of these factors, we strive to provide a comprehensive picture of the state of preparedness of local communities and to identify key points of intervention to improve their resilience. Research approach is based on the analysis of available data as well as on field research, including interviews with the population and relevant experts. This enables us to gain a more detailed insight into the perception and attitudes of citizens regarding preparedness for earthquakes, as well as to identify specific challenges faced by local communities. Given the complexity of the problem and the importance of an interdisciplinary approach, we aim for our monograph to be a valuable resource for various stakeholders, including government institutions, non-governmental organizations, local communities, and the scientific community. We hope that the results of our research will serve as a basis for the development of concrete action plans and policies that will enhance the preparedness of local communities for earthquakes. This monograph is not only the result of our research effort but also the product of collaboration with a wider community of experts and practitioners who have contributed their knowledge and experience to our understanding of this complex issue. We express our gratitude to all who have supported and contributed to our research. Through the following pages, we will guide you through a deep analysis of the factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes, providing insight into the complexity of this problem and identifying opportunities for improving the preparedness of local communities. We hope that this monograph will be a valuable resource for all those involved in this important field and will contribute to strengthening the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and other natural disasters. A large number of social and natural factors influence the resilience of local communities to geohazards caused by earthquakes. Understanding these factors plays a crucial role in devising and implementing strategies to enhance resilience. The results of previous research on citizen resilience to geohazards caused by earthquakes have influenced the development of hypotheses, which are grounded in the concept of resilience. The general hypothesis involves testing the assertion that there is a relationship between demographic (gender, age, education, household size), socio-economic (employment, income level, marital status), and psychological characteristics (fear, past experience, risk perception) of citizens and their level of preparedness to respond to geohazards caused by earthquakes in the Republic of Montenegro. It is assumed that this relationship is at the pre-planning level, implying that citizens recognize the problem and accept that action must be taken. Based on the general hypothesis, three specific hypotheses have been defined: The first hypothesis concerns testing the assertion that there is a correlation between demographic factors (gender, age, education, household size) of citizens in the Republic of Montenegro and their resilience levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes. The second hypothesis pertains to testing the assertion that there is a correlation between socio-economic factors (employment status, income level, marital status) of citizens in the Republic of Montenegro and their resilience levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes. The third hypothesis concerns testing the assertion that there is a correlation between psychological characteristics (fear, previous experience, risk perception) of citizens and their readiness levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes in the Republic of Montenegro. In the methodological framework of our research, we employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to gather and analyze data. Surveys and interviews were conducted to collect quantitative and qualitative data, respectively, while statistical analysis techniques were applied to test the formulated hypotheses. Additionally, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to provide a theoretical foundation for our research and to contextualize our findings within existing knowledge. Through this methodological approach, we aimed to ensure the rigor and validity of our research findings. We extend our gratitude to the reviewers who provided valuable feedback and insights during the development of this monograph. Their contributions have undoubtedly enriched the quality of our work and have helped us refine our analysis and interpretations.
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Community Disaster Resilience in Serbia
Book
Full-text available
  • Apr 2024
In the face of natural disasters, communities are often the first line of defence, bearing the brunt of devastation while also displaying remarkable resilience in their aftermath. The ability of societies to withstand, adapt to, and recover from such crises is a testament to the strength and resourcefulness inherent in human communities. This monograph, titled "Community Disaster Resilience in Serbia," represents a concerted effort to delve into the underlying dynamics that shape a community's capacity to cope with natural disasters. Focusing on Serbia, a country with a rich tapestry of social, economic, and demographic complexities, this research endeavors to unravel the intricate interplay between various socio-economic and demographic factors and community resilience. The research methodology employed in this study is grounded in a comprehensive quantitative approach, leveraging rigorous statistical analyses to explore the multifaceted dimensions of community disaster resilience. Through the administration of a carefully crafted questionnaire to 321 participants in January 2024, we sought to capture diverse perspectives and experiences, enriching our understanding of the complex socio-economic and demographic landscape of Serbia. At its core, this study recognizes the critical importance of understanding how factors such as income, employment status, marital status, education, risk perception, gender, and age intersect to influence a community's ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters. By shedding light on these nuanced relationships, we aim to equip policymakers, practitioners, and community leaders with evidence-based insights to enhance disaster preparedness and response efforts. A notable aspect of our methodology is the utilization of the snowball sampling method, which facilitated the organic expansion of our participant pool. By harnessing the networks and connections within communities, we were able to access a diverse array of voices, enriching our dataset and ensuring the robustness of our findings. Central to our inquiry is the exploration of how age, education, and gender intersect with broader social structures, capital, mechanisms, equity, diversity, and beliefs to shape community disaster resilience in Serbia. By elucidating these relationships, we aim to provide insights that can inform targeted interventions and policy initiatives aimed at bolstering community resilience across the country. This monograph holds significant importance in the field of disaster resilience research and practice for several reasons. Firstly, it fills a crucial gap in the existing literature by providing comprehensive insights into the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on community disaster resilience, particularly within the context of Serbia. While studies on disaster resilience abound, there is a notable scarcity of research specifically examining the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on resilience in this region. Secondly, the findings of this research offer practical implications for policymakers, government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and community leaders involved in disaster management and resilience-building initiatives. By identifying key predictors and factors influencing community resilience, stakeholders can tailor interventions and strategies to address specific vulnerabilities and enhance the capacity of communities to withstand, adapt to, and recover from disasters effectively. Furthermore, the utilization of robust statistical methods and the comprehensive nature of the research design enhance the reliability and validity of the findings presented in this monograph. The employment of multivariate regression analysis allows for a nuanced understanding of the relationships between various predictors and different dimensions of community disaster resilience, providing valuable insights for both academics and practitioners. Moreover, by employing an adapted version of the ‘5Ssocial resilience framework, this research contributes to the advancement of theoretical frameworks and conceptual models in the field of disaster resilience. The application of such frameworks enables researchers and practitioners to systematically assess and evaluate the complex interplay between social, economic, and environmental factors shaping community resilience, thereby facilitating more informed decision-making and resource allocation. Overall, this monograph serves as a seminal contribution to the burgeoning field of disaster resilience, offering evidence-based insights and actionable recommendations for enhancing resilience-building efforts in Serbia and beyond. Its significance lies not only in its empirical findings but also in its potential to inform policy development, guide practice, and inspire further research in the pursuit of building more resilient and adaptive communities worldwide. As we embark on this intellectual journey, we extend our gratitude to all those who have contributed to this endeavor, from the participants who generously shared their insights to the researchers and practitioners whose expertise has guided our inquiry. We hope this monograph will serve as a valuable resource for academics, policymakers, and practitioners alike, fostering dialogue and collaboration in our collective efforts to build more resilient communities in Serbia and beyond. Conclusion: The resilience of social communities to natural disasters represents an important research area in the field of disaster studies. By enhancing the level of such resilience, the fundamental prerequisites for the safe functioning of society in various unforeseen events are achieved. This scientific monograph delves into the intricate dynamics of community disaster resilience, shedding light on the interplay between demographic and socioeconomic factors. Through a rigorous quantitative study, the research investigates how variables such as age, education, employment status, and property ownership influence the resilience of communities to disasters of varying magnitudes. Utilizing multivariate regression analysis, the study identifies key predictors across different dimensions of community disaster resilience. It uncovers nuanced insights, revealing the differential impact of demographic and socioeconomic factors on various aspects of resilience. Among the findings, age, education, employment status, and property ownership emerge as significant predictors, shaping the overall resilience profile of communities. The calculated mean value of the community disaster resilience index provides a comprehensive overview, indicating a modest level of resilience across the studied communities. Notably, the analysis highlights variations in resilience across different subscales, with social beliefs garnering the highest ratings and social structure scoring the lowest. This disparity underscores the complex nature of community resilience and the need for targeted interventions to address specific vulnerabilities. Furthermore, the research offers valuable insights into the prevalence of preventive measures adopted by communities to mitigate disaster risks. Epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms emerge as the most common focus areas for preventive measures, reflecting societal priorities in disaster preparedness. Interestingly, the study also delves into societal perceptions of disaster resilience, revealing divergent attitudes towards different types of hazards. While epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought are perceived to have higher resilience levels, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis are viewed with comparatively lower confidence. This discrepancy in perception underscores the importance of understanding community attitudes and beliefs in shaping disaster resilience strategies. In essence, this monograph contributes to the growing body of knowledge on community disaster resilience by providing empirical evidence and nuanced insights into the factors influencing resilience levels. By identifying predictors, assessing resilience indices, and exploring societal perceptions, the research informs evidence-based approaches for enhancing community resilience and fostering sustainable disaster risk reduction strategies. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views on response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. High scores in addressing social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but lower ratings for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might want improvement. By adding to our knowledge of Serbian community disaster resilience, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Aside from that, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors such as age, education, employment, and property ownership provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches in studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. Results of the analysis across various dimensions of community resilience to disasters indicate a significant role of age as a predictor of social structure. These findings can be explained by the fact that older individuals, thanks to their previous life experiences, social networks, and spiritual beliefs, contribute to shaping the social structure of the community. Their prolonged exposure to disaster-related events allows them a subtler understanding of social structures and the effectiveness of responses in such situations. Further examinations also suggest a correlation between age and dimensions such as social structure, social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs. Subsequent analysis suggests that older participants have a positive association with higher ratings for social structure, while ratings for social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs, decrease as the age of participants progresses. This trend can be attributed to factors such as accumulated life experiences, historical perspectives, and deeper involvement in communal activities over time. Concurrently, education emerges as a key predictor for the sub-scale of social capital. Participants with a high school diploma consistently rate higher across dimensions including social structure, social mechanisms, and social justice and diversity compared to those with a university degree. This positive correlation can be attributed to increased social awareness, communication skills, and a broader understanding of community dynamics that come with higher education. Additionally, participants with a university education report higher ratings for social capital, preventive measures, and perception of disaster resilience compared to those with a high school diploma. These individuals with a university education likely experience higher levels of social connectedness, engagement, and support, thus being more inclined towards taking proactive measures and showing greater resilience perception in facing disasters compared to their peers with a high school diploma. Furthermore, employment has been shown as the most significant predictor for the sub-scales of social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, while property ownership is a key predictor for the sub-scale of social beliefs. Additional analysis reveals associations between employment and various variables, including social structure, social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs. Unemployed participants often give higher ratings regarding social structure, equality/diversity, and beliefs compared to employed participants. This study further demonstrates that individuals who own personal property consistently give lower ratings across various dimensions, including social capital, social beliefs, preventive measures, and resilience to disasters, compared to individuals who own property within family ownership. Detailed analysis reveals that participants with below-average income consistently assign lower ratings across various dimensions. Specifically, compared to those with average income, participants with below-average income give lower ratings for social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, and social beliefs. Additional analysis reveals that individuals residing in households with two members usually give lower ratings to social structures, while those in households with more than four members tend to give higher ratings to social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs. Furthermore, the research indicates a correlation between marital status and ratings, with single individuals consistently giving higher ratings across different dimensions compared to those who are in a relationship or divorced. This relationship between marital status and various dimensions may indicate that the existence of singles has specific attitudes or behaviors that contribute to a more positive valuation of social capital, preventive measures, and disaster resilience. The average value of the index measuring community (social) resilience to disasters, calculated on a Likert scale from 1 to 5, is in the lower range of values. This implies that the overall level of resilience to disasters in the community is relatively moderate. The proximity of values to the lower end of the scale suggests potential room for improvement in community resilience to disasters. Further analysis shows that preventive measures are most commonly taken before dangers such as epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The perception of society's resilience is highest against dangers from epidemics, followed by extreme temperatures and drought. Participants express a relatively high level of confidence in society's ability to cope with epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought. A detailed analysis of all obtained research results indicates that the general hypothesis predicting a statistically significant correlation between socio-economic factors and social resilience to disasters can be confirmed. Based on the defined hypotheses, data analyses show and confirm two specific assertions: a) the influence of sociological factors on the level of social resilience to disasters is confirmed; b) the influence of economic factors on the level of social resilience to disasters is also confirmed. These results direct our understanding of the relationship between different aspects of socio-economic factors and the ability to withstand disasters in society. On a societal level, the results of this research point to key areas where there is a need to enhance the capacity to resist and overcome the effects of disasters. From a fairness perspective, the focus should be on the older population, as a group that has been shown to be a significant factor in social resilience. Raising awareness and providing resources for the elderly can be crucial in encouraging their active participation in the community and increasing overall social resilience. Tailoring educational campaigns and programs to groups with lower levels of education can also be part of a strategy to increase awareness and preparedness in these population groups. Education about disaster prevention and response measures can significantly impact readiness and information provision, thereby raising the level of social resilience. The scientific implications of this research can enrich the field of social sciences and disaster studies. These studies can serve as a starting point for more detailed analyses of factors contributing to social resilience. New studies can explore specific aspects of older citizens or individuals with low education, contributing to a better understanding of their role in disaster preparedness and response processes. Ultimately, the applications of the results of this research can be broad and include support for the development of policies, programs, and interventions in the field of disaster management. Scientists and practitioners can use this knowledge to better direct resources and efforts towards building a more resilient and prepared society to face the challenges of disasters.
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Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts
Article
Full-text available
  • Mar 2024
This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions—social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socio-economic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters.
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A Predictive Model Of Community Disaster Resilience Based On Social Identity Influences (MODERSI)
Article
Full-text available
  • Dec 2023
The territory of Serbia is vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The risk is not equal across the entire territory, depending on the type of hazard and the expected potential for damage. So far, the level of community disaster resilience has not been determined in Serbia. There are no scientific preconditions for its improvement to reduce the future material and intangible consequences of disasters. Regarding that, the project’s main objective is to develop and validate a predictive model of community disaster resilience based on social identity influences through an investigation impact of social identity indicators on the level of community disaster resilience in Serbia. The project is based on the upcoming research on whether the level of community disaster resilience can be predicted based on social identity indicators, how social identity indicators affect different dimensions of community disaster resilience, and how disasters shape social identity. The project is based on multimethod research in which quantitative (face-to-face interviews in 40 of the 191 municipalities), and qualitative (semi-structured interviews) research methodology will be applied. A developed predictive model with an index of community disaster resilience in Serbia will empower the creation of preconditions for designing public policies, strategies and procedures for improving resilience and reducing the consequences of disasters on people and their property and enhancing citizens’ security. The project will encourage the prediction of community disaster resilience based on social identity indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses. Based on the development of analytical frameworks for understanding community disaster resilience and social identity in disasters, essential preconditions for designing innovative information systems will be created to enable local communities to increase their level of resilience.
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Examining the impact of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the level of employee preparedness for a disaster caused by fires: A case study of electrical power distribution in Serbia
Conference Paper
Full-text available
  • Sep 2021
This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the examination of the levels of efficiency of the fire protection system and the training of employees in Electrical power distribution of Serbia for fire protection, i.e., the analysis of the manner of implementation of fire protection measures, and determining whether these measures are adequately applied. Following the subject set in this way, the aim of the research was set, and that is the scientific analysis of the manner of application of fire protection measures. The results of this research showed that the employees of Elektrodistribucija Beograd (the electrical company of Serbia) perceive the preparedness of their company highly positively and certain socio-demographic characteristics also affect certain attitudes, especially those related to cases with fire, the knowledge of employees to react in cases of fire, and the choice of the appropriate response, assessment of the readiness of the company and the employees themselves. It was found that knowledge of how to react in case of fire is influenced by gender and level of education; the choice of one of the methods of action in case of fire is influenced by gender; the assessment of the readiness of the employees themselves is influenced by the marital status; the desire of employees to participate in training to increase their preparedness for fires is influenced by gender. The results of the research can be used to improve the preparedness of employees in various organizations to respond to disasters caused by fires. Keywords: disaster, fire, preparedness, respond, employee, demographic, socioeconomic, factors.
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Capacity Building in Serbia for Disaster and Climate Risk Education
Chapter
  • Aug 2023
The territory of the Republic of Serbia is exposed to various natural and technical-technological hazards that increasingly endanger people and their material goods. An integrated disaster risk management system (preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery) has not yet taken root in Serbia to a sufficient extent, although there are certain institutional and legal prerequisites for its smooth functioning. Abandoning the reactive way of preparing for disasters and increasingly implementing proactive measures, societies are desperately trying to improve their resilience in resource-scarce situations and mitigate future consequences of disasters. In Serbia, there is insufficient resistance to disasters, reflected in the insufficiently improved ability of Serbian society exposed to dangers to respond to them and recover from the consequences of disasters promptly and efficiently. Despite this, many efforts are in vain considering that the population's awareness of various aspects of disaster management remains very low. The aim of this chapter refers to the comprehensive analysis and description of capacity building in Serbia for Disaster and Climate Risk Education. The undoubted importance of education in the field of disasters, which is increasingly receiving priority positions on various agendas around the world, emphasizes the necessity of continuous research on the perspectives of formal and informal education on disasters. One of the most effective tools used in all areas of integrated disaster risk management is education. Admittedly, it should be borne in mind that education is a complex and interactive psychological process in which the transfer of knowledge from different fields is carried out in a planned and clearly grounded manner in the form of a kind of transfer.
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