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Intra-аnnual Variability оf Surface Air Temperature аnd Its Modeling for the City of Stavropol
Abstract
Introduction. It is known that the time course of temperature during the year is seasonal. However, the rates of temperature growth in transition periods are different. This complicates the prediction of such an important parameter, in particular for agriculture, as the air temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere. Accordingly, the article analyzes the intra-annual variability of air temperature and compares it with a sinusoidal model of the annual temperature course. Materials and research methods. The time series of the air temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere for the city of Stavropol are considered and the task is to compare the actual and theoretical values of annual amplitudes. In the elementary (sinusoidal) model, this theoretical value turns out to be directly proportional to the annual variance. The time series of temperature differences (inter-monthly changes), the so-called discrete derivatives, is also considered, and the comparison of the usual and discrete derivative of the sine function as an elementary model of the annual temperature course is carried out. A new value is introduced – the standard deviation of variability, which also characterizes the variance, yet not for a number of temperatures, but their differences. Research results and their discussion. It is noted that the theoretical (i.e., valid for the sinusoidal model) and the actual value of the amplitude of the annual temperature course are quite well matched. However, due to non-periodic deviations, the difference between these values can reach 2 °C, which is characterized by asymmetry on the intra-annual variability chart. In addition, the average annual temperature course is considered and its analysis is carried out using discrete derivatives. It is shown that the ratio of the annual temperature amplitude to the amplitude of the discrete derivative of this value is equal to the cyclic frequency of fluctuations of the annual temperature course. Conclusions. The results obtained confirm the possibility of using a sinusoidal model of the annual temperature course (although with some limitations related to the asymmetry and shift of intra-annual peak points). The analysis of the annual temperature course using discrete derivatives and its comparison with the sinusoidal model revealed the features of the average annual intra-annual variability of surface air temperature for the city of Stavropol for the period 1944 – 2022. Sometimes there is a change in the rate of heating or cooling; in rare cases, there is an inversion when considering the time series of average monthly temperatures).
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Introduction.
The article is devoted to calculation and analysis dynamics and modern
temperature regime of calendar summer of over Stavropol height, which is one
the main ground features of the Central Pre-Caucasus. At the end of the last
and the beginning of this century, there was almost unanimous opinion on the
unique and universal «global» warming. Later, with the expansion of thematic
integrated approach, the understanding of the problem has significantly
enhanced and changed. To the present day the most common is an idea that
the main contribution into increasing of average year air temperature gives the
winter season. Within the period of 1970–2019, every year the mean annual
temperature in Stavropol region showed a considerable positive anomaly, which
in certain years exceeded 2°C above the climatic normal on the average across
the territory of the region. The main focus of the present article is focused on
the study result of the summer air temperature change and its effects on the
increasing of average year air temperature.
Materials and methods
of the research. Some characteristic features of air temperature variations according to the
observation data of the weather station Stavropol for the period of 1921-2020 are
analyzed. The characteristic of prevailing tendency of long-term air temperature
variations are given. The trend of the average air temperature are estimated by
the regression analysis.
The results of the study
and their discussion. It was made the detail analysis temperature regime for all summer months,
including of average and extreme air temperature, the frequency of days with
air temperature higher/lower of certain degree, variations of months and season
air temperature and temperature gradients across the absolute maximum and
absolute minimum for all summer months over the last 20 years.
Conclusions.
The increasing of summer air temperature and its large contribution into the
increasing of average year air temperature are shown. For practical purposes it
is proposed to use the wide range of modern air temperature characteristics of
summer season.
Offered to your attention is the study drafted mainly in January
and February 2020. The COVID crisis and the global oil market
collapse happened in March have, on the one hand, shifted the
focus of public attention to human life and health protection from
the global climate challenges. On the other, they have illustrated
the scale and actuality of the ‘global threat’ notion and the ability
of the mankind, individual countries or even people to respond
adequately. All of a sudden, ‘black swans’ have appeared to be
real, and unlikely events occur and create a new environment. The
climate threat underestimation risk implies that a whole flock of
such ‘black swans’, both humanitarian and economic ones, may be
inherent in it. The authors would deem their task fulfilled, if the
readers, having familiarized themselves with this study, accept a
more conscious approach to this issue, get rid of any myths and
try to make a difference
This paper deals with direct calculations of the radiation-equilibrium temperature profile in the Earth’s atmosphere from experimental spectroscopic data. The calculations are made for its present composition and for the modified ones, when concentration of a gas, namely, one of carbon dioxide CO2, methane CH4, nitrous oxide N2O or water vapor H2O is changed. Calculations were carried out with one-dimensional (horizontally homogeneous) radiation model proceeding from the values of absorption coefficients of atmospheric layers estimated from actual data. Calculations are carried out for small disturbances of the said gases’concentrations. Approximate estimates of large disturbance were made for the cases of total withdrawal of concrete gas from the atmosphere or, on the contrary, of large increase in its concentration.
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еСТеСТВеННЫе НаукИ
Внутригодовая изменчивость температуры приземного воздуха...