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Review of flood hazards in Kosi River—A way forward for disaster risk reduction
Abstract
This research looks at how floods are handled in the Kosi River, which goes through China's Tibet region, Nepal, and India, supporting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in these countries. The emphasis is on the institutional framework and efforts and the plan of the Bihar government to reduce the ill impacts of floods. Drawing from global experiences in transboundary river flood control and considering the unique characteristics of the Kosi River, the study proposes measures that could enhance flood management. It is observed that due to its downstream location in the basin, India is particularly vulnerable to the devastating impacts of floods from the river. Approaches to flood mitigation is a combined approach that includes flood control structural elements and other systems such as transport, finance, and communication systems that can contribute to building up social resiliency.
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Flood risk mapping aims to create an easily read and rapidly accessible map to prioritize the mitigation
effects. This study presents an empirical approach to flood risk mapping through the integration of
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. SRTM 30m
DEM is processed using ArcGIS 10.3 software. The study methodology includes the selection of the study
area, the identification of the factors responsible for flood and collection of the required data, the
generation of the desired thematic layers, and their integration to produce the flood risk map.
Geomorphic, hydrologic, and socio-economic analyses are carried out to generate the thematic layers,
namely slope, district`s distance to active stream, highest elevation, drainage density, rainfall, population
density, and land use-land cover. AHP is used to determine the relative impact weight of the thematic
layers. The influence of each thematic layer and the scale values provided based on the weights and score
calculated by the AHP are used to integrate the layers in GIS environment to prepare the flood risk map.
Consistency ratios are determined from the judgment process to validate the reliability of the proposed
approach and results. The study classified the area falling in the basin under different risk zones with
Purnia and Madhepura having large areas under high risk. This study may aid decision and policymakers
in the evaluation and rapid assessment of flooding phenomena in the region.
The overall precipitation in the state of Bihar, India is showing a decreasing trend both annually and seasonally, and yet extreme flood events are on the rise. The Kosi river embankments built to safeguard communities against flood risk are a product of socio-political and historical events in the past, but have resulted in differential impacts on those living inside and outside these embankments. The geomorphology of the river Kosi also makes it highly susceptible to recurring floods because it forms one of the largest inland deltas in North Bihar. Flood protection structures such as embankments exacerbate the magnitude of floods by jacketing the heavy sediment load and thus raising the riverbeds and exacerbating the intensity and duration of floods. Our paper employs an interdisciplinary approach to analysing both the biophysical and socio-institutional causalities of increasing flood events. From the quantitative analysis of rainfall data, we find that the daily, as well as monthly rainfall alone are not responsible for extreme flood events. The extreme rainfall events in the summer monsoon also do not increase the odds of flooding. Therefore, we conclude that precipitation alone is not the main factor affecting community's vulnerabilities but, a combination of socio-institutional factors including spatial location with respect to the embankment, class and caste of these communities. Our statistical analysis correlating daily and monthly gridded rainfall to the occurrences of flooding at the district level suggest that there are fewer flood events in the presence of the embankments across all years. However, primary data from household interviews and field observations confirm that the frequency and intensity of floods have increased in the post-embankment period. We found that the breaching of the river embankments is one of the major factors responsible for floods outside of the embankments. Kosi's marginalized communities perceive that they have become more vulnerable to flood risk in the post-embankment period with a declining standard of living in the Kosi villages caused by lack of proper roads, economic opportunities, educational institutions, public utilities and healthcare facilities, especially in areas with embankments.
To prevent floods from becoming disasters, social vulnerability must be integrated into flood risk management. We advocate that the welfare of different societal groups should be included by adding recovery capacity, impacts of beyond-design events, and distributional impacts. To prevent floods from becoming disasters, social vulnerability must be integrated into flood risk management. This Comment advocates that the welfare of different societal groups should be included by adding recovery capacity, impacts of beyond-design events, and distributional impacts.
Disaster recovery spending for major flood events in the United States is at an all-time high. Yet research examining equity in disaster assistance increasingly shows that recovery funding underserves vulnerable populations. Based on a review of academic and grey literature, this article synthesizes empirical knowledge of population disparities in access to flood disaster assistance and outcomes during disaster recovery. The results identify renters, low-income households, and racial and ethnic minorities as populations that most face barriers accessing federal assistance and experience adverse recovery outcomes. The analysis explores the drivers of these inequities and concludes with a focus on the performance of disaster programs in addressing unmet needs, recognition of intersectional social vulnerabilities in recovery analysis, and gaps in data availability and transparency.
Flooding is one of the most devastating and frequent natural hazards in the Indian subcontinent. In India, Bihar is one of the most flood prone states. Floods hit the state almost every year and causes enormous loss of lives, property, agriculture and infrastructure. Bihar has about 6.88 million hectares of flood prone area which is about 73.06% of its geographical area. The Kosi river is the most unstable river in Bihar and known as the "Sorrow of Bihar" because floods in this river cause huge destruction almost every year by its course changing tendency in the plains of North Bihar. It is one of the largest tributary of the river Ganga originating from Himalayas in Tibet and joins the Ganga in Bihar after flowing through Nepal. Majority of the drainage area of this river (almost 85 %) lies in Tibet and Nepal while only 15% lies in Indian Territory. The river carries huge amount of sediment with flow every year (about 120 million m3/Year) which primarily causes change in the morphological behaviour of the river. Even after the adoption of several measures, mostly grey infrastructure for the flood management in the Kosi river, the flood devastation in the region is still continued. The grey infrastructure approach gives a false sense of security and it also results in many unintended negative consequences. The present paper analyses the problem of flooding in the Kosi river basin; explores the feasibility of innovative and green infrastructure based sustainable solutions. Considering the prime issue of sediments in the Kosi, a novel concept of detention cum siltation ponds have been proposed. These ponds require hardly 7.84-13.54% of the drainage basin of Kosi in India. The proposed detention cum siltation ponds with other green infrastructure measures for the flood and sediment management in the river basin have overarching benefits. The environmental and economic sustainability aspect adds a great value to feasibility of the proposed measures.
Analysis of spatial and temporal changes of long-term precipitation and extreme precipitation distribution at a local scale is very important for the prevention and mitigation of water-related disasters. In the present study, we have analyzed the long-term trend of 116 years (1901–2016) of precipitation and distribution of extreme precipitation index over the Kosi River Basin (KRB), which is one of the frequent flooding rivers of India, using the 0.25° × 0.25° resolution gridded precipitation datasets obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), India. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test together with Sen’s slope estimator was employed to determine the trend and the magnitude of the trend of the precipitation time series. The annual and monsoon seasons revealed decreasing trends with Sen’s slope values of −1.88 and −0.408, respectively. For the extreme indices viz. R10 and R20 days, a decreasing trend from the northeastern to the southwest part of the basin can be observed, whereas, in the case of highest one-day precipitation (RX1 day), no clear trend was found. The information provided through this study can be useful for policymakers and may play an important role in flood management, runoff, and understanding related to the hydrological process of the basin. This will contribute to a better understanding of the potential risk of changing rainfall patterns, especially the extreme rainfall events due to climatic variations.
By analyzing the unequal water treaties signed between Nepal and India from 1920 to 1996, the paper critically analyzes if it is possible for Nepal to sign an 'equal' water treaty with India. Furthermore, the research draws on the lessons learned by Nepal from its past experiences to optimize the benefits of utilizing its trans-boundary water resources. By using the hydro-hegemony framework, the researchers argue that power is the prime determinant which leads downstream India to enjoy more water resource benefits in comparison to upper riparian Nepal. Against the backdrop of extreme power asymmetry, Nepal cannot sign equal water treaties with hydro-hegemon India, as political power is the most significant factor determining the control of land and resources. As a weaker riparian, the most significant objective for Nepal will be to increase its bargaining power against its larger neighbor to gain a fair share of benefits. This can be done in the following five ways: i) adopting a long-term national water policy explicitly for India, ii) involving a third party (another riparian in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region) during negotiations, iii) changing Nepalese politicians' attitudes toward India, iv) involving the private sector for more economic gains, and v) inviting international water hub or community members for trans-boundary water resource management. Trans-boundary water resource management is important to both co-riparians. Harnessing trans-boundary water resources can provide economic gains to Nepal, mostly through the construction of hydro-power projects. Similarly, the materialization of such a mechanism can help India not only to address perennial problems such as flood control and irrigation, but also to meet the energy needs of adjacent states. However, impeding the utilization of these resources prevents both countries from making any productive gains. Therefore, by realizing the importance of trans-boundary water, Nepal can cooperate with India to design jointly operated projects after the necessary preparation is done.
This article reviews the relationship between Nepal and India, particularly in water resources cooperation. The two South Asian neighbours have entered into a number of agreements/treaties in water resources, namely, Sarada Agreement (1920), Kosi Agreement (1954), Gandak Agreement (1959) and Mahakali Treaty (1996). Nepal is criticized within the country for being unable to secure its benefits, and that all the agreements are in Indian favour. However, the Indian side claims that overpoliticization of water issues in Nepal is the reason for not achieving the benefits from these agreements. After the Mahakali Treaty, there is a deadlock in Nepal–India water cooperation as the implementation of the treaty has not materialized even after more than two decades of its ratification. Therefore, all the forms of cooperation in the past between Nepal and India can be viewed as the consequence of hydro-hegemony rather than mutuality. The article concludes that both nations need to move forward to create a mutual trust for the equitable utilization of water resources, as there is a huge potential for constructive cooperation.
Rainfall patterns have changed in recent years, resulting in more high-intensity precipitation over shorter periods. Such trends are likely to contribute to an increase in the magnitude and frequency of water-induced disasters including landslides, debris flows, and floods in the Koshi basin, shared between China, India, and Nepal.
Communities in the basin live in a multi-hazard environment, where floods and droughts affect them annually. Women, children, and marginalized communities are most vulnerable to these changes as many lack decision-making power and access to information, and many have less capacity to prepare for disasters and deal with their aftermath. The downstream reaches of the basin, which cover the northern state of Bihar in eastern India, are particularly vulnerable.
Weather- and climate-related hazards are strongly influenced by seasonality. Cold waves cause numerous deaths in Bihar, while heat waves during the summer and monsoon seasons lead to higher morbidity and mortality. Thunderstorms that bring strong winds, intense rainfall, lightning, and hail contribute to widespread agricultural losses, infrastructural damage, and human and livestock deaths across the state. Further, an increase in flood disasters is likely to influence the prevalence and spread of water-related diseases and contaminate water sources, and lack of sufficient water during dry periods or in drought-prone areas affects hygiene and is likely to increase the risk of water-borne diseases.
This study aims to investigate the various aspects of flood management process in the transboundary Koshi River between India and Nepal focusing on the institutional framework. The technical and administrative cause of the most disastrous and most recent flood in 2008 are discussed. Existing policies and institutional mechanism between Nepal and India on the management of the Koshi River are analyzed. In reference to such policies and institutional mechanism, lack of proper coordination and complex organizational structure was identified as one of the major element that has hindered the effective flood management along with other few elements. Finally, based on the experiences of the transboundary river flood management around the world as well as considering the unique nature of Koshi, different key elements that might be helpful in improving the management of floods are proposed.
The Kosi megafan region of eastern Bihar, India, comprising of eight districts, is regularly afflicted by large floods that cause extensive damage. Mapping the possible inundation susceptible zones in the region accurately is, therefore, paramount for land resource conservation and livelihood preservation. This paper compares the relative efficiency of two flood zonation methods, the frequency ratio and fuzzy logic models, for flood susceptibility evaluation and delineation. Flooded extents from two past events were combined to create the training dataset, which was then compared individually with respective maps of 12 well-documented causal factors of inundation to gauge their relative influence on the flood spread. These were merged using the two models to generate the respective flood susceptibility maps, which were subsequently validated using the Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve and the Seed Cell Area Index methods. Results revealed that an enhanced fuzzy logic model (prepared by assigning relative weights to the respective causal factors as obtained from their analysis in the frequency ratio model) was more accurate and robust in demarcating flood susceptibility zones, as was further ascertained by comparison with a recent flood event, thereby providing a novel way to merge these methods. The western and southern tracts of the region were found to be more inundation prone, with the greatest risk posed along the narrow interfluve between the Kosi and Ganga rivers prior to their confluence further east. The districts most likely to be inundated were identified by computing their respective proportionate areas under the very highly susceptible flood class.
Hydrological and sediment transport characteristics for the Kosi basin, which covers parts of Nepal and India, were analysed to understand the spatiotemporal variability of the hydrology and sediment dynamics of the Kosi basin and its implications for flood hazard and sediment dynamics. The study revealed that ∼56% of the discharge at Chatara (where all major tributaries of the Kosi meet) is contributed from the western part of the basin even though this constitutes only 34% of the total basin area. In contrast, the central and eastern parts of the basin constitute 57% and 8% of the basin area but contribute ∼38% and ∼16% of the discharge at Chatara, respectively. The contribution of sediment load at Chatara from the different tributaries of the Kosi River also shows a similar pattern. Of a total of ∼100 million tonnes of the annual sediment load at Chatara, ∼56% is transported from four tributaries: the Indrawati, Bhote Kosi, Tama Kosi (all draining from the west), and Tamor. The remaining ∼44% is transported by other tributaries upstream of Chatara, the most important being the Arun, Dudh Kosi, and Sun Kosi. Sediment budgeting in this study, based on annual sediment load data, suggested that ∼20 million tonnes of sediments are deposited between Chatara and Birpur annually. This study also found that ∼53 million tonnes of sediments are being accommodated between Birpur and Baltara annually. Sediment dynamics in the Kosi basin emerges as the most important river management issue, and this is closely linked to channel instability and frequent flooding in the alluvial plains.
Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4°C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.
Koshi is a trans-boundary river that flows in China, Nepal and India. The river originates from Tibet in China and flows through Nepal and India covering 87,481 km² area and provides livelihoods for almost 40 million people, most of who depend on subsistence agriculture. The river is also a major source of sorrow for downstream population of Nepal and India due to occasional catastrophic flooding and intense flow of debris. The three countries through which the river passes have their own policies that may be adequate in compartment, but lack in integrated approach and therefore unable to optimize on this vast resource on a basin scale and unable to develop integrated plan to fight with water related hazards. These limitations are leading to high prevalence of poverty and food insecurity in the populated areas of the basin in these three countries. The on-going impact of climate change has further worsened the problem due to more extreme weather events like frequent flood and drought hazards in the basin which ultimately threatened the livelihood options of the Koshi dwellers. In the context of trans-boundary basin, a policy adopted by the upstream could generate either positive or negative externality to the downstream and there is a policy vacuum in the context of whole basin.
The 18 August 2008 avulsion of the Kosi River draining the parts of north Bihar in eastern India may well be regarded as one of the greatest avulsions in a large river in recent years. The Kosi River shifted by ~120 km eastward, triggered by the breach of the eastern afflux bund at Kusaha in Nepal at a location 12 km upstream of the Kosi barrage. This event was widely perceived as a major flood in the media and scientific circles. Although a large area was indeed inundated after this event, it is important to appreciate that this inundation was different from a regular flooding event.
Disasters such as floods, storms, heatwaves and droughts can have enormous implications for health, the environment and economic development. In this article, we address the question of how climate change might have influenced the impact of weather-related disasters. This relation is not straightforward, since disaster burden is not influenced by weather and climate events alone-other drivers are growth in population and wealth, and changes in vulnerability. We normalized disaster impacts, analyzed trends in the data and compared them with trends in extreme weather and climate events and vulnerability, following a 3 by 4 by 3 set-up, with three disaster burden categories, four regions and three extreme weather event categories. The trends in normalized disaster impacts show large differences between regions and weather event categories. Despite these variations, our overall conclusion is that the increasing exposure of people and economic assets is the major cause of increasing trends in disaster impacts. This holds for long-term trends in economic losses as well as the number of people affected. We also found similar, though more qualitative, results for the number of people killed; in all three cases, the role played by climate change cannot be excluded. Furthermore, we found that trends in historic vulnerability tend to be stable over time, despite adaptation measures taken by countries. Based on these findings, we derived disaster impact projections for the coming decades. We argue that projections beyond 2030 are too uncertain, not only due to unknown changes in vulnerability, but also due to increasing non-stationarities in normalization relations.
The Kosi River is an important tributary of the Ganges River, which
passes through China, Nepal and India. With a basin area of 71 500
km2, the Kosi River has the largest elevation drop in the
world (from 8848 m of Mt Everest to 60 m of the Ganges Plain) and covers
a broad spectrum of climate, soil, vegetation and socioeconomic zones.
The basin suffers from multiple water related hazards including glacial
lake outburst, debris flow, landslides, flooding, drought, soil erosion
and sedimentation. This paper describes the characteristics of water
hazards in the basin, based on the literature review and site
investigation covering hydrology, meteorology, geology, geomorphology
and socio-economics. Glacial lake outbursts are a huge threat to the
local population in the region and they usually further trigger
landslides and debris flows. Floods are usually a result of interaction
between man-made hydraulic structures and the natural environment.
Debris flows are widespread and occur in clusters. Droughts tend to last
over long periods and affect vast areas. Rapid population increase, the
decline of ecosystems and climate change could further exacerbate
various hazards in the region. The paper has proposed a set of
mitigating strategies and measures. It is an arduous challenge to
implement them in practice. More investigations are needed to fill in
the knowledge gaps.
The study of precipitation trends is critically important for a country like India whose food security and economy are dependent on the timely availability of water. In this work, monthly, seasonal and annual trends of rainfall have been studied using monthly data series of 135 years (1871–2005) for 30 sub-divisions (sub-regions) in India. Half of the sub-divisions showed an increasing trend in annual rainfall, but for only three (Haryana, Punjab and Coastal Karnataka), this trend was statistically significant. Similarly, only one sub-division (Chattisgarh) indicated a significant decreasing trend out of the 15 sub-divisions showing decreasing trend in annual rainfall. In India, the monsoon months of June to September account for more than 80% of the annual rainfall. During June and July, the number of sub-divisions showing increasing rainfall is almost equal to those showing decreasing rainfall. In August, the number of sub-divisions showing an increasing trend exceeds those showing a decreasing trend, whereas in September, the situation is the opposite. The majority of sub-divisions showed very little change in rainfall in non-monsoon months. The five main regions of India showed no significant trend in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in most of the months. For the whole of India, no significant trend was detected for annual, seasonal, or monthly rainfall. Annual and monsoon rainfall decreased, while pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter rainfall increased at the national scale. Rainfall in June, July and September decreased, whereas in August it increased, at the national scale.Citation Kumar, V., Jain, S. K. & Singh, Y. (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 484–496.
The Kosi river in north Bihar plains, eastern India presents a challenge in terms of long and recurring flood hazard. Despite
a long history of flood control management in the basin for more than 5 decades, the river continues to bring a lot of misery
through extensive flooding. This paper revisits the flooding problem in the Kosi river basin and presents an in-depth analysis
of flood hydrology. We integrate the hydrological analysis with a GIS-based flood risk mapping in parts of the basin. Typical
hydrological characteristics of the Kosi river include very high discharge variability, and high sediment flux from an uplifting
hinterland. Annual peak discharges often exceed the mean annual flood and the low-lying tracts of the alluvial plains are
extensively inundated year after year. Our flood risk analysis follows a multi-parametric approach using Analytical Hierarchy
Process (AHP) and integrates geomorphological, land cover, topographic and social (population density) parameters to propose
a Flood Risk Index (FRI). The flood risk map is validated with long-term inundation maps and offers a cost-effective solution
for planning mitigation measures in flood-prone areas.
Reddy, D. V. Kumar, D. Saha, Dipankar Mandal, M. K.
When governments meet in the international arena, their actions reflect the political situations at home. Previous studies of trade relations have focused on governments that are immune from political pressures and that act as benevolent servants of the public interest. Here the authors introduce domestic politics into the analysis of international economic relations. They study the interactions between national leaders who are concerned with both providing a high standard of living to the general electorate and collecting campaign contributions from special-interest groups. The authors' analysis sheds light on the determinants of the structure of protection in noncooperative and cooperative policy equilibria. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.
The proliferation of international institutions and their impact has become a central issue in international relations. Why do countries comply with international agreements and how do international institutions influence national policies? Most theories focus on the extent to which international institutions can wield 'carrots and sticks' directly in their relations with states. Xinyuan Dai presents an alternative framework in which they influence national policies indirectly by utilizing non-state actors (NGOs, social movements) and empowering domestic constituencies. In this way, even weak international institutions that lack 'carrots and sticks' may have powerful effects on states. Supported by empirical studies of environmental politics, human rights and economic and security issues, this book sheds fresh light on how and why international institutions matter. It will be of interest to students, scholars and policymakers in both international relations and international law.
The construction of hydropower projects has long been sources of protracted internal disputes in South Asia and Nepal cannot remain an exception in this regard. With the proliferation of hydroelectric industry in Nepal since 1990, disputes between the government, hydropower construction companies, civil society actors, and local communities on issues around environment protection, compensation distribution, benefit sharing and resettlement of displaced communities have been a common phenomenon. Despite occurrence of these disputes over the period of time, how hydropower disputes are emerged and resolved in Nepal is something less explored issue and this has limited our ability to understand some successful dispute resolution practices in hydropower sector. Considering this fact, this chapter focuses on assessing the dynamics of hydropower related disputes in Nepal. Drawing from the examples of three hydropower projects (proposed and ongoing), namely, Upper Tamakoshi, Arun III and West Seti, our study finds that lack of adequate information sharing among the local and national stakeholders and the violation of national and international legal and policy provisions significantly contribute to escalate the disputes between hydropower stakeholders. We also found that disputes between hydroelectric project stakeholders in Nepal are often resolved on ad hoc basis. We further found that unclear and ambiguous government policies regarding compensation, benefit sharing and resettlement issues and the lack of institutionalized dispute resolution policies and mechanisms are two highly contributing factors behind escalating hydropower disputes in Nepal.
Populations in developing countries that are located in less-favored agricultural areas (LFAAs)— agricultural lands constrained by difficult terrain, poor soil quality, limited rainfall, etc. or with limited access to markets—and rural low-elevation coastal zones (LECZs)—coasts that have less than 10 meters elevation—are not only at risk from the most severe and long-lasting climate change impacts, they are also susceptible to poverty-environment traps (overreliance on marginal agricultural land and resource commons, which leads to stagnant, low incomes) that further increase their vulnerability to these impacts. We estimate that approximately 586 million people with high infant mortality live in LFAAs and 85 million with high infant mortality live in rural LECZs, although both of these populations declined between 2000 and 2010. Nearly all of these people are in low-income or lower middle-income countries, with twenty countries accounting for most of the LFAA or rural LECZ populations with high infant mortality. We also examine the economic and environmental impacts of climate change on the rural poor in LFAAs and LECZs and discuss policy strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on poverty among rural households in LFAAs and LECZs.
The book examines the lapses in leadership which led to certain crucial problems in foreign policy at the time of India's independence in 1947, unresolved even in the first decade of the 21st century. It argues that Indian leaders, opting for Partition in 1947, perpetuated and institutionalised the very problem they wanted to resolve by Partition - communal antagonism. This has, over the ensuing decades, mutated into international terrorism. A major contention of this book is that before 1991, because of the twin shackles of socialism and non-alignment, India's foreign policy makers could exercise very little independence. On account of the policies of economic liberalisation and globalisation, and the resultant economic surge post-1991, India could gain a greater power status in world affairs, which eluded it before. One of the first studies of its kind, the book traces the subtle changes in foreign policy which set the stage for India's movement towards such a role by means of certain epoch-making deals as the India-United States Civil Nuclear Cooperation Pact.
Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high-and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.
The recent Kosi megaflood, caused by a breach in the Kosi embankment in Nepal on August 18, 2008 and a sudden change in the course of the Kosi River, was one of the most significant and damaging flood events ever to hit Bihar. The Kosi disaster also ranks as one of the greatest disasters in India. This preliminary note briefly discusses some of the available details of the megaflood, the past great floods on the river, the special hydro-geomorphic characteristics of the basin, and the probable reasons for the failure of structural measures designed to mitigate the flooding problems on this Himalayan river with unique behavioural characteristics.
This paper provides a brief outline of the flood studies in India in the field of geomorphology, meteorology and hydrology. The review clearly shows that, though the general characteristics of floods have been known for a long time, our scientific understanding of the floods remains incomplete to a surprisingly large extent. Existing studies seem to concentrate in two areas. The first deals with hydrometeorological analysis of flood producing rainfall and associated synoptic conditions. The second area is related to streamflow analysis and the estimation of design floods. Both the research areas place considerable emphasis on statistical analysis and modelling. This trend is likely to continue in future. While a quantitative approach to the problem is indispensable in predictive models, it is felt that future opportunities to improve our understanding of this recurring natural hazard should include research into the natural trends and the behaviour of floods on longer time scale, and increased evaluation of the impact of anthropogenic activities on the river systems.
The recent Kosi floods have proved once again that inadequate control measures have been responsible for the recurring disasters. Typically flood control and riverine studies focus on hydrological information, whereas a much more integrated approach that pays attention to specific morphological factors is required. Since Kosi is a dynamic river with a unique morphology and because it is a river which has always carried high sediment loads, flood management strategies must be attuned to such specific parameters of the river, besides being much more than mere "river control" through embankments.
The breach of the Kosi embankment in Nepal in August 2008 marked the failure of conventional ways of controlling floods. After discussing the physical characteristics of the Kosi River and the Kosi barrage project, this paper suggests that the high sediment content of the Kosi River implies a major risk to the proposed Kosi high dam and its ability to control floods in Bihar. It concludes by proposing the need for a paradigm shift in dealing with the risks of floods.
The concept of Indo-Nepal Power Exchange was first broached in BS2006 (AD1950) by the newly arrived ambassador of independent India, Chandreshwar Prasad Narain Singh (CPN Singh), during discussions with Mohun Shumshere, the last autocratic Rana Prime Minister of Nepal. Mohun Shumshere confided (Pande 1982) in CPN Singh of his Rs1.8 crore plan to generate electricity at 6 paisa per unit from the 22 MW1 Gaidakot hydropower-cum-irrigation project in Nawalpur/Nawalparasi by diverting the Kali Gandaki waters through a tunnel. The shrewd Indian ambassador advised Mohun Shumshere that he was making a big mistake as the Indian government was soon executing the large Kosi High Dam Project at Barahchhetra (incidentally inside Nepal) that would avail electricity at 2 paisa per unit for Nepal, North Bihar and Bengal. Mohun Shumshere swallowed this bait and roundly chided the 22 MW project initiators2 for ‘nearly wasting his Rs 2 crores on a useless project!’ Many Nepalese now believe that if this Gaidakot hydropower project of 1950 had been implemented, then this would have done what the 20 MW Chilime has done to the nation 50 years later—mobilise scarce local skills and resources.
The Kosi River shifts laterally over the Himalaya foreland plain by
continual minor cutoffs and bank cutting and by episodic major shifts
across watersheds, by moving into and then out of preexisting, adjacent,
less actively aggrading streams. Migration is unidirectional because
after a channel is filled to instability, floodwater will drain
preferentially into a new adjacent low rather than across it to the next
watershed or back to the last abandoned channel. Major shifts seem
stochastic and autocyclic; they do not correlate with the many severe
quakes and floods that undoubtedly helped prime the system for shifts.
The Kosi afflux bundh breached in Kusaha in Nepal on 18 August 2008. This was the eighth incident of its kind and the first time did a breach occur upstream of the Kosi Barrage. The ones in 1968 and 1984 were no less disastrous but this year's breach has generated the most concern and its international dimension has added an edge. In an effective life of 45 years, the embankments have remained intact for 37 years. What happens to the people who have suffered the wrath of the river nearly five times more than those in the areas protected by the embankments?
It has been proposed that the Kosi River continuously migrated >113 km westward across the surface of the megafan over the last two centuries. Examination of a number of old maps published between 1760 and 1960 shows that during most of this period the Kosi River occupied a position slightly east of the megafan axis. The apparent channel movement shown in these maps is oscillating in nature and not unidirectional. Instead of encountering deposits left behind by a sweeping braided Kosi-like stream, a preliminary study of the uppermost 2–5 m succession in the north-central part of the megafan reveals overwhelming dominance of meandering stream deposits. Assuming the existing notion of Kosi River migration, the rate of deposition averaged over ∼100–200 years for the uppermost ∼5–10 m of megafan deposits, works out to be unusually high (>50 mm/y). All these observations question the soundness of the hypothesis of rapid westward migration of the Kosi River over the last two centuries. The existing facies model for the uppermost 8–10 m of the megafan deposits also appears untenable.
Compliance with international law is always dependent upon a domestic political decision to engage in the behavior that constitutes compliance. This article articulates the importance of the interdependence between home state domestic politics and foreign state domestic politics in determining compliance. International legal commitments allow the formation of domestic coalitions between those who will benefit by their own state's compliance with the international legal rule in question, and those who will benefit from other states' compliance with the international legal rule. The theory developed in this paper is based on established approaches to international relations in the political science literature, in particular the "liberal" theory of international relations associated with Andrew Moravcsik, the two-level game theory approach associated with Robert Putnam, and the "second image reversed" approach associated with Peter Gourevitch. The two extensions of these approaches made in this article, (i) from international relations more broadly to international law, and (ii) from adherence to compliance, raise some questions, and bear some important fruit. These extensions help to illuminate the problem of compliance. This article extends the rationalist approach to compliance with international law into the domestic politics of the target state. The model advanced in this article allows the formalization and contextualization of a variety of factors that have heretofore been viewed alone as explanatory variables in the decision to comply. Policy makers can use this model as an analytical template by which to assess whether their counterparties would comply with any undertakings they may make.
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