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Pathway to zero emissions in global tourism: opportunities, challenges, and implications
... Much of the extant literature often lacks in first-hand empirical grounding and reflects the broad generalizations and misunderstandings that plague an honest confrontation on the 'inconvenient truths' about mass tourism, touristification and overtourism (see for example : Butcher, 2020;O'Regan et al., 2022). Yet, a growing number of academics have taken on to both provide an epistemology of overtourism within critical tourism studies, triggering a growing production of data and analytics that support its operationalization in policy design-data on drivers, impacts, scales, subjects, indicators and potential solutions (see Bei & celata, 2023;Bolzoni & semi, 2023;clancy, 2022;Dogru & Bulut, 2018;García-lópez et al., 2020;lópez-Gay et al., 2021;Robinson et al., 2019;tulumello & allegretti, 2021;Valente et al., 2023), future development scenarios (see: Peeters et al., 2019;Peeters & Papp, 2024) and to deconstruct opposite claims within a broader geopolitically uneven tourism constellations (see sheller, 2024). Recent research has placed a focus on some of the drivers through which excess tourism pressure becomes an issue for local communities: the effects of short-term rental and the conversion of residential housing into tourist apartments (celata & Romano, 2020; sequera & Nofre, 2020), the reorientation of commercial supply to meet the demand of visitors , the precarious working conditions in an hypercompetitive tourist market (azcárate, 2020; González-Domingo et al., 2023), and the climatic impact of the growing cruise tourism segment in coastal cities (Baumann, 2021;González, 2018). ...
... the most recent academic literature on overtourism possibly builds upon such events and as a response to the trail of the previous series of interconnected crises. Resident communities and social movements have taken stock of the excesses of tourism (Russo & scarnato, 2018) and have been advocating for a radical turn from a tourism growth (and dependency) paradigm to one in line with global critical voices and activism in favour of degrowth and decarbonization, thus calling for a fundamental revision of the tourism mobilities system (Fletcher et al., 2019;Murray et al., 2023;Peeters & Papp, 2024). ...
Sustainable tourism has emerged as a paradigm for reconciling the economic benefits of tourism with the need to protect the environment and preserve cultural heritage. This study was aimed to evaluate the economic philosophies underpinning sustainable tourism development in Indonesia. This research employed a qualitative research methodology. Data was collected through a comprehensive literature review encompassing academic journals, books, government reports, and non-governmental organization (NGO) publications. The collected data was then analyzed using thematic analysis to identify key themes and patterns related to economic philosophies and sustainable tourism practices in Indonesia. The findings reveal a dominant focus on neoliberal economic principles in Indonesian tourism, prioritizing economic growth and foreign investment. However, this approach has led to several negative consequences, including environmental degradation, social inequalities, and cultural commodification. Alternative economic philosophies, such as community-based tourism and degrowth, offer more sustainable and equitable pathways for tourism development. In conclusion, a paradigm shift is necessary to achieve sustainable tourism development in Indonesia. Moving away from a purely neoliberal framework and embracing alternative economic models that prioritize community well-being, environmental protection, and cultural preservation is crucial. This shift requires a collaborative effort from government, industry, and local communities.
Given the highly fragmented structure and strong industrial linkages of the tourism industry, exploring the flow and drivers of carbon transfer is critical for sustainable tourism. This study combines the environmentally extended input–output (EEIO) model with structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and structural path analysis (SPA) to identify the key sectors, paths, and drivers of carbon emissions from tourism. Taking China as a case, the results show that: (1) China's tourism carbon emissions grew from 34.68 Mt. in 2002 to 137.87 Mt. in 2019, with road transport (22.58%), food and beverage services (21.10%), shopping (20.52%), and air transport (14.91%) constituting the primary emitters. (2) Critical supply chain path “source sector → tourism‐related sectors → final demand” spurring carbon growth of tourism primarily centers on the tourism‐related sectors associated with road transport, air transport, food and beverage services, and shopping, where the source sectors mainly come from energy and food supply, manufacturing, transportation, and logistics sectors. (3) Despite considerable sectoral and path‐level heterogeneity, the key driver for inhibiting tourism carbon emissions is direct energy intensity, while final demand remains the main obstacle to low‐carbon tourism. In addition to the limited effect of energy restructuring, the promising role of optimizing the supply of intermediate goods in cubing tourism carbon emissions is revealed. Finally, relevant theoretical and policy implications are discussed.
This paper extends previous research that has examined the impact of banning (super) short-haul flights on climate change. Looking at all scheduled passenger flights worldwide, our results confirm that policies focused on super short-haul flights would have very limited climate benefits. Flights of less than 500 km account for 26.7% of flights but only 5.2 % of fuel burnt, while flights of 4000 km or more account for just 5.1 % of flights, but 39.0 % of fuel burnt. When the results are broken down by region and country, it appears that the share of fuel burnt by long-haul flights varies according to social, political, economic and geographical factors, including remoteness. While fuel burnt is highly correlated with GDP at the country level, this is less true for long-haul flights, arguably because long-haul services are so geographically selective that not all countries can be expected to host them. We also find that since the mid-1990s, the long-haul segment has grown much more rapidly (+163 % seat-km) than the super-short-haul one (+28 %). These findings have important policy implications and suggest that “avoid” strategies should receive more attention than “shift” and “improve” strategies in aviation climate policy.
Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons1, 2, 3, 4, 5–6. Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes7,8. Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average temperature, but accounting for further climatic components raises estimates by approximately 50% and leads to stronger regional heterogeneity. Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, at which reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The largest losses are committed at lower latitudes in regions with lower cumulative historical emissions and lower present-day income.
Powering aircraft by sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) is a pathway to reduce the climate impact of aviation by lowering aviation lifecycle CO2 emissions and by reducing ice crystal numbers and radiative forcing from contrails. While the effect of SAF blends on contrails has been measured previously, here we present novel measurements on particle emission and contrails from 100 % SAF combustion. During the ECLIF3 (Emission and CLimate Impact of alternative Fuels) campaign, a collaboration between the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Airbus, Rolls-Royce, and Neste, the DLR Falcon 20 research aircraft performed in situ measurements following an Airbus A350-941 source aircraft powered by Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-84 engines in 1 to 2 min old contrails at cruise altitudes. Apparent ice emission indices of 100 % HEFA-SPK (hydro-processed esters and fatty acids–synthetic paraffinic kerosene) were measured and compared to Jet A-1 fuel contrails at similar engine and ambient ice-supersaturated conditions within a single flight. A 56 % reduction in ice particle numbers per mass of burned fuel was measured for 100 % HEFA-SPK compared to Jet A-1 under engine cruise conditions. The measured 35 % reduction in soot particle numbers suggests reduced ice activation by the low-sulfur HEFA fuel. Contrail properties are consistently modeled with a contrail plume model. Global climate model simulations for the 2018 fleet conservatively estimate a 26 % decrease in contrail radiative forcing and stronger decreases for larger particle reductions. Our results indicate that higher hydrogen content fuels as well as clean engines with low particle emissions may lead to reduced climate forcing from contrails.
The aviation industry faces a formidable challenge to cap its climate impact in the face of continued growth in passengers and freight. Liquid hydrogen (LH2) is one of the alternative jet fuels under consideration as it does not produce carbon dioxide upon combustion. We conducted a well-to-wake life cycle assessment of CO2 emissions and non-CO2 climate change impacts per passenger-distance for 17 different hydrogen production routes, as well as conventional jet fuel and biofuels. Six other environmental and health impact categories were also considered. The Boeing 787-800 was used as the reference aircraft, and a range of flight distances were explored. Contrail cirrus contributes around 81 ± 31% of the combustion climate impacts for LH2, compared to 32 ± 7% for conventional jet fuel, showing that research is needed to reduce uncertainty in the case of LH2. The life cycle impacts of the two dominant commercial LH2 pathways are on average 8 and 121% larger than conventional jet fuel. Some novel LH2 pathways do show considerable potential for life cycle climate impact reductions versus conventional fuel (up to -205 ± 78%). LH2 from renewable energy is not climate neutral, though, at best -67 ± 10% compared to conventional over the life cycle.
The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)⁴. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.
The Paris Agreement suggests that all countries engage in significant emission reductions. To stay within safe guardrails, usually defined as a maximum warming of 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial times, this will mean decarbonization within less than 30 years. This significant challenge is complicated because of growth in some sectors, such as tourism. This paper analyses emissions and economic output in Norway, considering national Tourism Satellite Accounts. Novel aspects of this paper include a longitudinal perspective covering 12 years through which critical developments and progress on emission reduction pathways can be assessed. Findings suggest that the carbon intensity of tourism (emissions per NOK) is more than twice the Norwegian economy average. Aviation in particular is a major barrier to emission reductions, as it generates 17% of national tourism revenue and 75% of direct tourism emissions. Trend extrapolation shows that tourism will be the largest emission sub-sector of the Norwegian economy by 2030. The Norwegian economy will have to decarbonise at a rate more than 30 times faster than its current rate, if it is to decarbonize to mid-century, while continuing on its observed economic growth trajectory.
The strong growth rate of the aviation industry in recent years has created significant challenges in terms of environmental impact. Air traffic contributes to climate change through the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other non-CO2 effects, and the associated climate impact is expected to soar further. The mitigation of CO2 contributions to the net climate impact can be achieved using novel propulsion, jet fuels, and continuous improvements of aircraft efficiency, whose solutions lack in immediacy. On the other hand, the climate impact associated with non- CO2 emissions, being responsible for two-thirds of aviation radiative forcing, varies highly with geographic location, altitude, and time of the emission. Consequently, these effects can be reduced by planning proper climate-aware trajectories. To investigate these possibilities, this paper presents a survey on operational strategies proposed in the literature to mitigate aviation’s climate impact. These approaches are classified based on their methodology, climate metrics, reliability, and applicability. Drawing upon this analysis, future lines of research on this topic are delineated.
Wealth and income are disproportionately distributed among the global population. This has direct consequences on consumption patterns and consumption-based carbon footprints, resulting in carbon inequality. Due to persistent inequality, millions of people still live in poverty today. On the basis of global expenditure data, we compute country- and expenditure-specific per capita carbon footprints with unprecedented details. We show that they can reach several hundred tons of CO2 per year, while the majority of people living below poverty lines have yearly carbon footprints of less than 1 tCO2. Reaching targets under United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 1, lifting more than one billion people out of poverty, leads to only small relative increases in global carbon emissions of 1.6–2.1% or less. Nevertheless, carbon emissions in low- and lower-middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa can more than double as an effect of poverty alleviation. To ensure global progress on poverty alleviation without overshooting climate targets, high-emitting countries need to reduce their emissions substantially.
Aviation and shipping currently contribute approximately 8% of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with growth in tourism and global trade projected to increase this contribution further1–3. Carbon-neutral transportation is feasible with electric motors powered by rechargeable batteries, though challenging if not impossible for long-haul commercial travel, particularly air travel4. A promising solution are drop-in fuels (synthetic alternatives for petroleum-derived liquid hydrocarbon fuels such as kerosene, gasoline or diesel) made from H2O and CO2 by solar-driven processes5–7. Among the many possible approaches, the thermochemical path using concentrated solar radiation as the source of high-temperature process heat offers potentially high production rates and efficiencies8 and can deliver truly carbon-neutral fuels if the required CO2 is obtained directly from atmospheric air9. If H2O is also co-extracted from air10, feedstock sourcing and fuel production can be co-located in desert regions with high solar irradiation and limited access to water resources. While individual steps of such a scheme have been implemented, we now demonstrate operation of the entire thermochemical solar fuel production chain, from H2O and CO2 captured directly from ambient air to the synthesis of drop-in transportation fuels (e.g. methanol, kerosene), with a modular 5-kWthermal pilot-scale solar system operated under real field conditions. We further identify the R&D efforts and discuss the economic viability and policies required to bring these solar fuels to market.
Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions has become the explicitgoal of many climate-energy policies around the world. Although many studies have assessed net-zero emissions pathways, the common features and tradeoffs of energy systems across global scenarios at the point of net-zero CO2 emissions have not yet been evaluated. Here, we examine the energy systems of 177 net-zero scenarios and discuss their long-term technological and regional characteristics in the context of current energy policies. We find that, on average, renewable energy sources account for 60% of primary energy at net-zero (compared to ∼14% today), with slightly less than half of that renewable energy derived from biomass. Meanwhile, electricity makes up approximately half of final energy consumed (compared to ∼20% today), highlighting the extent to which solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels remain prevalent in the scenarios even when emissions reach net-zero. Finally, residual emissions and offsetting negative emissions are not evenly distributed across world regions, which may have important implications for negotiations on burden-sharing, human development, and equity.
1.5 °C scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rely on combinations of controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, while assuming continued growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Thus far, the integrated assessment modelling community and the IPCC have neglected to consider degrowth scenarios, where economic output declines due to stringent climate mitigation. Hence, their potential to avoid reliance on negative emissions and speculative rates of technological change remains unexplored. As a first step to address this gap, this paper compares 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios with IPCC archetype scenarios, using a simplified quantitative representation of the fuel-energy-emissions nexus. Here we find that the degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability compared to technology-driven pathways, such as the reliance on high energy-GDP decoupling, large-scale carbon dioxide removal and large-scale and high-speed renewable energy transformation. However, substantial challenges remain regarding political feasibility. Nevertheless, degrowth pathways should be thoroughly considered.
Vague claims by countries and companies will lull the world into missing its climate goal
Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has been a painful reminder of the vulnerability of the aerospace industry. It is currently facing challenges with costs, expensive fuels, and carbon emissions. In recovering the industry, regaining its competitiveness, and addressing future climate goals, an unprecedented revolution is needed. The aviation sector is at a crossroads, and several international agencies have put forth radical goals for its future. Sectors that were hardest hit by COVID-19 require particular attention and must be prioritized.
Significance
We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.
New synthesis shows what a wasted decade means for the climate pact made in Paris. New synthesis shows what a wasted decade means for the climate pact made in Paris.
Net anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions must approach zero by mid-century (2050) to stabilize global mean temperature at the levels targeted by international efforts1–5. Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel energy infrastructure implies already ‘committed’ future CO2 emissions6–13. Here we use detailed datasets of current fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of ‘committed’ CO2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will emit about 658 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 (ranging from 226 to 1,479 Gt CO2 depending on assumed lifetimes and utilization rates). More than half of these emissions are projected to come from the electricity sector, and infrastructure in China, the USA and the EU28 countries represent approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit approximately an additional 188 (range 37–427) Gt CO2. Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 Gt CO2) thus represent more than the entire remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 °C with a probability of 50–66 per cent (420–580 Gt CO2)5, and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to below 2 °C (1,170–1,500 Gt CO2)5. The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced14,15, depending on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions16. Nevertheless, our emission estimates suggest that little or no additional CO2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that infrastructure retirements that are earlier than historical ones (or retrofits with carbon capture and storage technology) may be necessary, in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals17. On the basis of the asset value per ton of committed emissions, we estimate that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternative technologies are available and affordable4,18.
Significance
Humankind must cease CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel burning if dangerous climate change is to be avoided. However, liquid carbon-based energy carriers are often without practical alternatives for vital mobility applications. The recycling of atmospheric CO 2 into synthetic fuels, using renewable energy, offers an energy concept with no net CO 2 emission. We propose to implement, on a large scale, marine-based artificial islands, on which solar or wind energy powers the production of hydrogen and the extraction of CO 2 from seawater and where these gases are catalytically reacted to yield liquid methanol fuel. The present work proposes specifications for such facilities and highlights essential challenges in physics, chemistry, and engineering which must be met to realize this ambitious proposal.
The level of carbon dioxide as well as other noxious gases in the atmosphere has been on the increase and this has caused a lot of issues relating to the effect of these gases to human and animal health. A process for capturing carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere will go a long way in making the world a safer and healthier place for the entire inhabitant. Different methods and processes have been postulated and promoted by various researchers to mitigate climate change by reducing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This paper aims to consider a process to capture the carbon dioxide directly (Direct Air Capture) from the atmosphere at a cheap, sustainable and affordable way. The process aims to capture the carbon dioxide, concentrate it and pressurize it for storage or further usage. This is a deviation from the process of carbon capture from point source such as power plants, industries etc. The process focusses on capturing carbon dioxide that have found their way into the atmosphere through other smaller sources such as automobile exhaust, domestic power generators, fossil fuel burning equipment and many other sources not reported or captured in the international data base. A summation of the above-named sources will amount to a huge impact on the environment and a method to remove the contaminant at a cheap, affordable and sustainable way will be of immense benefit worldwide most especially developing countries in tackling climate change.
Tourism contributes significantly to global gross domestic product, and is forecast to grow at an annual 4%, thus outpacing many other economic sectors. However, global carbon emissions related to tourism are currently not well quantified. Here, we quantify tourism-related global carbon flows between 160 countries, and their carbon footprints under origin and destination accounting perspectives. We find that, between 2009 and 2013, tourism’s global carbon footprint has increased from 3.9 to 4.5 GtCO2e, four times more than previously estimated, accounting for about 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Transport, shopping and food are significant contributors. The majority of this footprint is exerted by and in high-income countries. The rapid increase in tourism demand is effectively outstripping the decarbonization of tourism-related technology. We project that, due to its high carbon intensity and continuing growth, tourism will constitute a growing part of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.
The Paris Agreement ¹ commits ratifying parties to pursue efforts to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Carbon budgets ²⁻⁵ consistent with remaining below 1.5 °C warming, reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) 2,6,8, are directly based on Earth system model (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ⁷ responses, which, on average, warm more than observations in response to historical CO2 emissions and other forcings 8,9 . These models indicate a median remaining budget of 55 PgC (ref. ¹⁰, base period: year 1870) left to emit from January 2016, the equivalent to approximately five years of emissions at the 2015 rate 11,12 . Here we calculate warming and carbon budgets relative to the decade 2006-2015, which eliminates model-observation differences in the climate-carbon response over the historical period ⁹, and increases the median remaining carbon budget to 208 PgC (33-66% range of 130-255 PgC) from January 2016 (with mean warming of 0.89 °C for 2006-2015 relative to 1861-1880 ¹³⁻¹⁸ ). There is little sensitivity to the observational data set used to infer warming that has occurred, and no significant dependence on the choice of emissions scenario. Thus, although limiting median projected global warming to below 1.5 °C is undoubtedly challenging ¹⁹⁻²¹, our results indicate it is not impossible, as might be inferred from the IPCC AR5 carbon budgets 2,8 .
The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model with estimated ranges for key climate system properties from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Assuming emissions peak and decline to below current levels by 2030, and continue thereafter on a much steeper decline, which would be historically unprecedented but consistent with a standard ambitious mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), results in a likely range of peak warming of 1.2–2.0 °C above the mid-nineteenth century. If CO2 emissions are continuously adjusted over time to limit 2100 warming to 1.5 °C, with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation, net future cumulative CO2 emissions are unlikely to prove less than 250 GtC and unlikely greater than 540 GtC. Hence, limiting warming to 1.5 °C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation. Strengthening near-term emissions reductions would hedge against a high climate response or subsequent reduction rates proving economically, technically or politically unfeasible.
Emissions from aviation will continue to increase in the future, in contradiction of global climate policy objectives. Yet, airlines and airline organisations suggest that aviation will become climatically sustainable. This paper investigates this paradox by reviewing fuel-efficiency gains since the 1960s in comparison to aviation growth, and by linking these results to technology discourses, based on a two-tiered approach tracing technology-focused discourses over 20 years (1994–2013). Findings indicate that a wide range of solutions to growing emissions from aviation have been presented by industry, hyped in global media, and subsequently vanished to be replaced by new technology discourses. Redundant discourses often linger in the public domain, where they continue to be associated with industry aspirations of ‘sustainable aviation’ and ‘zero-emission flight’. The paper highlights and discusses a number of technology discourses that constitute ‘technology myths’, and the role these ‘myths’ may be playing in the enduring but flawed promise of sustainable aviation. We conclude that technology myths require policy-makers to interpret and take into account technical uncertainty, which may result in inaction that continues to delay much needed progress in climate policy for aviation.
Over the past 40 years, tourism has developed to become a sector of global economic, social and environmental significance. This paper provides a retrospective overview of the massive expansion and evolving geography of international and domestic tourism over the last 40 years, including the factors that enabled and challenged this growth, in order to contextualize a discussion of what the next 40 years may hold for global tourism. Social, technical, economic, environmental and political dimensions influencing tourism over the past and future 40 years are identified, together with a synthesis of available long-range scenarios of tourism futures to 2050. Comparisons with selected non-tourism scenarios suggest that current assessments of tourism futures are limited in scope, and that the tourism sector may have much to learn from scenario building and forecasting from other economic sectors and analyses of global grand challenges. Reconciling anticipated tourism growth with the sustainability and development imperatives of the next 40 years are discussed.
This paper pioneers the assessment of tourism's total global resource use, including its fossil fuel consumption, associated CO2 emissions, fresh water, land, and food use. As tourism is a dynamic growth system, characterized by rapidly increasing tourist numbers, understanding its past, current, and future contributions to global resource use is a central requirement for sustainable tourism assessments. The paper introduces the concept of resource use intensities (RUIs), which represent tourism's resource needs per unit of consumption (e.g. energy per guest night). Based on estimates of RUIs, a first assessment of tourism's global resource use and emissions is provided for the period 1900-2050, utilizing the Peeters Global Tourism Transport Model. Results indicate that the current (2010) global tourism system may require c.16,700 PJ of energy, 138 km3 of fresh water, 62,000 km2 of land, and 39.4 Mt of food, also causing emissions of 1.12 Gt CO2. Despite efforts to implement more sustainable forms of tourism, analysis indicates that tourism's overall resource consumption may grow by between 92% (water) and 189% (land use) in the period 2010-2050. To maintain the global tourism system consequently requires rapidly growing resource inputs, while the system is simultaneously becoming increasingly vulnerable to disruptions in resource flows.
Tourism and its "midwife", aviation, are transnational sectors exposed to global uncertainties. This scenario-building exercise considers a specific subset of these uncertainties, namely the impact of the evolving global climate change regime on long-haul tourism (LHT), with a 2050 horizon. The basic problematique is that unconstrained growth in aviation emissions will not be compatible with 2050 climate stabilisation goals, and that the stringency and timing of public policy interventions could have far-reaching impacts—either on the market for future growth of LHT, or the natural ecosystem on which tourism depends. Following an intuitive-logic approach to scenario-building, three meta-level scenarios that can be regarded as "possible" futures for the evolution of LHT are described. Two of these, i.e., the "grim reaper" and the "fallen angel" scenarios, are undesirable. The "green lantern" scenario represents the desired future. Long-haul tourist destinations should heed the early warning signals identified in the scenario narratives, and contribute towards realising the desired future. They should further guard against being passive victims if the feared scenarios materialise, by adapting, repositioning early upon reading the signposts, hedging against risks, and seizing new opportunities.
Aviation is highly dependent on liquid fossil fuel, and the production of 'sustainable aviation fuels' (SAF) is being proposed as a solution to removing the fossil carbon component, especially for long-haul flights. An analysis of 12 aviation roadmaps for net zero 2050 reveals heavy reliance on biogenic SAF in the medium-term and synthetic e-kerosene in the longer term. Realising these roadmaps could require 9 % of global renewable electricity and 30 % of sustainably available biomass in 2050, with significant energy 'losses'. The continued use of hydrocarbon fuel in the roadmaps generates 1.35 GtCO2 in 2050, of which 30 % are still from fossil fuel. The net carbon savings from the 70 % depend on the direct and indirect life cycle emissions of producing SAF. Additional effects that are omitted in most roadmaps relate to decadal time lags in re-sequestering biocarbon in the case of forest biomass and the impact of non-CO2 emissions. Both require greater scrutiny in fully understanding the climate impact of SAF substitution. The scaling up of SAF to not only maintain but grow global aviation is problematic as it competes for land needed for nature-based carbon removal, clean energy that could more effectively decarbonise other sectors, and captured CO2 to be stored permanently. As such, SAF production undermines global goals of limiting warming to 1.5°; a conflict that is neither recognised in the roadmaps nor in the public debate.
The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change represents the state of knowledge of anthropogenic disruption to the climate system, its diverse ecosystem and societal impacts, and the imperative for and challenges of mitigation and adaptation responses. It is foundational for global climate policymaking. This paper examines the place of tourism in AR6 and reviews its key findings for tourism’s future. Overall, tourism related content declined relative to previous assessments. While notable improvements in content occurred for Africa, visible knowledge gaps remain in the tourism growth regions of South America, Middle East, and South Asia. There remains limited discussion of many impacts, and very limited understanding of integrated impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation strategies at the destination scale. The contribution of tourism to global emissions was omitted, however tourism was discussed in the context of luxury emissions and just transitions. Tourism is repeatedly identified in solution space discussions, particularly for ecosystem protection, but without consideration of the future of tourism in a rapidly decarbonizing and climate disrupted economy. With only 21% of published climate change and tourism literature in the AR6 review period cited, tourism academics should elevate tourism content and engagement in future assessments.
Further analysis and editing was provided by Jasper Heslinga at ETFI, Ben Lynam at the Travel Foundation, Ewout Versloot at the Netherlands Board of Tourism and Conventions, and Samantha Bray and Michelle Rutty from University of Waterloo.
This document is available for free on the Travel Foundation website www.thetravelfoundation.org.uk
Purpose
It has been established that values, beliefs and norms are good predictors of pro-environmental behaviour; however, it is less explored how these constructs can be influenced. The purpose of this paper is to assess whether the COVID-19 pandemic, as a shock event, was a “game changer” or it had limited impacts on deep-rooted travel patterns.
Design/methodology/approach
To understand whether the pandemic has influenced people’s value orientations with regards to sustainable travel, the authors have made use of the value–belief–norm (VBN)theory of environmentalism and conducted a large-scale survey in Germany, Italy, France, The Netherlands and UK ( N = 1545).
Findings
The findings showed that the pandemic caused only temporary change in deep-rooted travel patterns as (self-reported) pre-pandemic behaviour of respondents align with their value orientations and proved to be a good predictor of projected travel behaviour. Based on projected travel behaviour and value orientations, four market segments were identified – Frontrunners, Laggards, Comfortable Crowd and Entitled Stewards. While all segments showed willingness to adapt, the authors found variations in the extent of adaption and in the phases of the customer journey where travellers are likely to make changes.
Originality/value
According to our knowledge, using the VBN theory of environmentalism to understand the impact of shock events on deep-rooted travel patterns represents a new perspective. Moreover, to the best of authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first, written in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which looks at the impact of the health crisis on deep-rooted travel patterns, instead of the commonly studied risk perception.
Tourism needs to reduce emissions in line with other economic sectors, if the international community's objective of staying global warming at 1.5°-2.0 °C is to be achieved. This will require the industry to half emissions to 2030, and to reach net-zero by mid-century. Mitigation requires consideration of four dimensions, the Scales, Scopes, Stakeholders and Strategies of carbon management. The paper provides a systematic review of these dimensions and their interrelationships, with a focus on emission inventory comprehensiveness; allocation principles at different scales; clearly defined responsibilities for decarbonization; and the identification of significant mitigation strategies. The paper concludes that without mitigation efforts, tourism will deplete 40% of the world's remaining carbon budget to 1.5 °C. Yet, the most powerful decarbonization measures face major corporate, political and technical barriers. Without worldwide policy efforts at the national scale to manage the sector's emissions, tourism will turn into one of the major drivers of climate change.
This review explains the science behind the drive for global net zero emissions and why this is needed to halt the ongoing rise in global temperatures. We document how the concept of net zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions emerged from an earlier focus on stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Using simple conceptual models of the coupled climate–carbon cycle system, we explain why approximately net zero CO 2 emissions and declining net energy imbalance due to other climate drivers are required to halt global warming on multidecadal timescales, introducing important concepts, including the rate of adjustment to constant forcing and the rate of adjustment to zero emissions. The concept of net zero was taken up through the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Structured Expert Dialogue, culminating in Article 4of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Increasing numbers of net zero targets have since been adopted by countries, cities, corporations, and investors. The degree to which any entity can claim to have achieved net zero while continuing to rely on distinct removals to compensate for ongoing emissions is at the heart of current debates over carbon markets and offsetting both inside and outside the UNFCCC. We argue that what matters here is not the precise makeup of a basket of emissions and removals at any given point in time, but the sustainability of a net zero strategy as a whole and its implications for global temperature over multidecadal timescales. Durable, climate-neutral net zero strategies require like-for-like balancing of anthropogenic greenhouse gas sources and sinks in terms of both origin (biogenic versus geological) and gas lifetime.
The concept of net-zero carbon emissions has emerged from physical climate science. However, it is operationalized through social, political and economic systems. We identify seven attributes of net zero, which are important to make it a successful framework for climate action. The seven attributes highlight the urgency of emission reductions, which need to be front-loaded, and of coverage of all emission sources, including currently difficult ones. The attributes emphasize the need for social and environmental integrity. This means carbon dioxide removals should be used cautiously and the use of carbon offsets should be regulated effectively. Net zero must be aligned with broader sustainable development objectives, which implies an equitable net-zero transition, socio-ecological sustainability and the pursuit of broad economic opportunities. Net-zero emissions is more than a concept of physical climate science. It is implemented in social, political and economic contexts. This Perspective proposes seven attributes that are critical for the practical and effective implementation of net zero.
Strengthen markets, measures and definitions for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to fight climate change. Strengthen markets, measures and definitions for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to fight climate change.
This paper provides an ex-post assessment of net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail (HSR) by including both mode substitution and traffic generation effects with a life-cycle approach. We are among the first authors to examine the emissions effects of a long-haul HSR and to consider the effects of avoided infrastructure expansion and vehicle manufacturing due to traffic diversion. We find that avoided infrastructure expansion plays a limited role in offsetting CO2 emissions from the construction of an HSR infrastructure, but the reduced demand for passenger vehicles can offset a larger share of emissions from the manufacturing of HSR rolling stock. Initially, too much traffic was diverted from ordinary-speed rail (OSR) to HSR, increasing emissions at the operation stage. As traffic diverted from road and air increased, the net emissions at the operation stage turned negative, offsetting emissions from infrastructure construction and vehicle manufacturing.
Pursuant to a referral by the unfccc through the Kyoto Protocol, the International Civil Aviation Organization ( icao ) has developed a ‘basket’ of emission-mitigation measures for international aviation. Technical and operational measures proved inadequate to counter traffic growth, and finally, in October 2016, the icao adopted a framework for a market-based measure. The Carbon Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation ( corsia ) is the primary emission-mitigation tool for international aviation. It aims at ‘carbon-neutral growth’ ( cng ) from 2020 onward. Yet, even with an increased use of alternative fuels and comprehensive implementation of corsia , the icao ’s basket of measures will not produce a reduction in global aviation emissions. This article describes the legal and governance framework and the implementation process of corsia , assesses the scheme’s potential contribution to climate-change mitigation, and proposes a derivative but more ambitious strategy. This would include incorporation of international aviation emissions in the ndc s of parties to the Paris Agreement and a more direct role for the unfccc in determining eligibility of emission units and alternative fuels, with the icao remaining accountable for monitoring, reporting and verification. 1
Aviation is one of the most important global economic activities in the modern world. Aviation emissions of CO2 and non-CO2 aviation effects result in changes to the climate system (Fig. 1). Both aviation CO2 and the sum of quantified non-CO2 contributions lead to surface warming. The largest contribution to anthropogenic climate change across all economic sectors comes from the increase in CO2 concentration, which is the primary cause of observed global warming in recent decades (IPCC, 2013, 2018).
The rapid development of China’s high-speed rail (HSR) has caused great concern worldwide, and its various environmental impacts is also a main topic. As such, a comprehensive assessment of these environmental impacts is significant for future HSR construction. In this study, a hybrid input-output life cycle method is applied to evaluate multi-footprints of Beijing-Tianjin intercity HSR, namely, carbon, water, land, and material footprints. Results show that the total carbon, water, land, and material footprints of the entire Beijing-Tianjin HSR construction are 3669.0 kt CO2, 54954.7 kt fresh water, 45830.6 ha land, and 8474.2 kt original materials. In the construction stage, bridge and rail systems have the largest environmental impacts, totally contributing above 74% of the four footprints. The indirect footprints from upstream material production have the dominant effects, accounting over 89% in the four footprints. Metal smelting and rolling, transportation equipment manufacturing, and non-metallic mineral products are high-water-consuming and high-emission sectors in raw material production. Improving industrial production efficiency, optimizing line layout, optimizing production distribution and construction process management are key mitigation ways for multi-footprints.
Climate change will have far-reaching consequence for the future of tourism. A Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Tourism (CVIT) comprised of 27 indicators provides a transparent and systematic first analysis of the differential vulnerability of the tourism sector in 181 countries. Countries with the lowest vulnerability are found in western and northern Europe, central Asia, Canada and New Zealand. High sector vulnerability is found in Africa, Middle East, South Asia and Small Island Developing States. Vulnerability is highest in many countries where tourism represents the largest proportion of GDP and regions where tourism growth is expected to be the strongest over the coming decades. Climate change will pose an increasing barrier to tourism contributions to the Sustainable Development Goals.
Fourth generation biofuel (FGB) uses genetically modified (GM) algae to enhance biofuel production. Although GM algae biofuel is a well-known alternative to fossil fuels, the potential environmental and health-related risks are still of great concern. An evaluation of these concerns and accordingly devising appropriate mitigation strategies to deal with them are important to a successful commercialized production of FGB. While extensive research has been carried out on genetic modification and other technologies that aim to increase the productivity of algae strains, only a handful of them deal with the legislative limitations imposed on exploiting and processing GM algae. This paper examines this legislation and the mitigation strategies to meet potential risks associated with the exploitation and processing of FGB. Open-pond system is an economic solution for large-scale cultivation of microalgae; however, the concern regarding the health and environmental risk of cultivating GM algae and the associated stringent regulations is considered as the main barrier of FGB production. Disposal of the residue is another important issue that should be considered in FGB production. The byproducts obtained from energy extraction step and residual water from the harvesting process may contain plasmid or chromosomal DNA that may cause the risk of lateral gene transfer. Hence an appropriate mitigation practices should be used for replacement of the hazardous water residue and by-products with more environmentally friendly alternatives. The results obtained from several field testing projects for open-environment exploitation of GM algae show that under the various conditions used, there was no apparent proof to support possible horizontal gene transfer in release of GM algae.
The reduction of aviation’s CO2 emissions is a major objective of the aviation industry. About 98% of the world’s aviation CO2 is produced by aircraft with gross takeoff mass above 25 metric tonnes, referred to herein as airliners. Propulsion of such aircraft can require power and energy levels of tens of megawatts and hundreds of thousands of kilowatt hours per flight. The challenges to electrically powering these airliners are examined in the context of CO2 reduction. Additional possible benefits such as noise and cost reduction are explored. All electric (battery), hybrid, and turboelectric approaches are considered. Technical issues including weight, efficiency, and heat rejection are examined. In addition, economic and policy implications of an industry conversion to electric propulsion are discussed. The conclusion of this study is that electric propulsion is not a promising path to significant reduction of aviation’s CO2 in the first half of the 21st century.
The environmental impacts of airport pavement construction were evaluated in this study through a life-cycle analysis approach. Total primary energy (TPE) consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from material production and construction of pavement were determined by using life-cycle assessment (LCA), a quantitative methodology described in the ISO 14040 series. A tool was developed to implement a probabilistic LCA through the Monte Carlo method. This tool allowed for consideration of uncertainty from life-cycle inventory data. A case study on the construction of Runway 10R-28L at Chicago O'Hare International Airport focused on mainline and shoulder pavement designs. Environmental impacts from producing materials for the pavements increased from lower to upper layers, while asphalt layers had relatively higher TPE consumption than the upper portland cement concrete layer-and vice versa for GHGs. Impacts from material production overshadowed those from construction, which contributed less than 2% of TPE consumption and GHGs. Further analysis showed that two production processes-for asphalt binder and portland cement-were the leading contributors (45.3% and 29.2%, respectively) of TPE consumption, while the latter was the leading contributor (73.4%) of GHGs. A probabilistic analysis compared the original 10R-28L runway design and a modified design that did not use recycled materials or warm-mix asphalt technology. The results from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations showed that the environmental impacts from the two cases were statistically significant, with the original design having lower TPE consumption (482 versus 693 MJ/yd² for TPE) and GHGs (37.5 versus 53.9 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per square yard).
The backcasting approach is being increasingly used in the field of transport to address issues of climate change. While it acknowledges that a structured involvement of stakeholders should become central in transport backcasting studies, there are very few policy relevant papers that pay special attention to stakeholder participation in the visioning phase of backcasting. This paper aims at showing the findings of a participatory visioning study as a starting point of a wider backcasting analysis for the transport sector (2050) in Andalusia (Spain). It presents a methodological approach that involves a total of 40 stakeholders and combines two participatory techniques: (i) Delphi survey; (ii) semi-structured interviews. The main outcomes show how stakeholders were engaged in the participation process through each technique. It then identifies five relevant methodological issues for a more detailed discussion: (i) the selection of participants; (ii) the means to visualise long-term futures ; (iii) the visualisation of desired futures; (iv) the generation of multiple future visions; (v) the combination of multiple participatory techniques. In parallel, the study also presents the means by which the use of both par-ticipatory techniques can provide a narrative of a future vision for the transport sector in Andalusia. That vision focuses largely on lower carbon emissions, technological innovation, and urban compactness.
This article proposes that reactance theory can be used to better understand how tourists’ perceptions of climate change affect their travel decisions. Reactance theory explains how individuals value their perceived freedom to make choices, and why they react negatively to any threats to their freedom. We study the psychological consequences of threatening tourist's freedoms, using a range of projective techniques: directly, using photo-expression, and indirectly, through collage, photo-interviewing and scenarios. We find that reactance theory helps to explain the extent of travel to two destinations: Svalbard and Venice, providing a nuanced understanding of how travellers restore their freedom to travel through three incremental stages: denying the climate change threat, reducing tensions arising from travel and heightening demand particularly for the most visibly threatened destinations. The theory suggests a fourth stage, helplessness, reached when consumers dismiss the value of destinations once they can no longer be enjoyed, but for which we, as yet, have no data. Reactance theory questions the validity of awareness-raising campaigns as behavioural change vehicles, provides alternative explanations of why the most self-proclaimed, environmentally aware individuals travel frequently, and helps identify nuanced, socially acceptable forms of sustainability marketing, capable of reducing resistance to change.理解旅游者对由于气候变化而失去旅游自由的威胁的感抗：一个鼓励微妙的行为改变的新的可选择的方法该文章提出感抗理论可以被用来更好的理解旅游者对气候变化的看法如何改变他们的旅行决策。感抗理论解释了个体如何看重他们认为的自由来做决定，并且为什么他们对于他们自由的威胁如此负面地抵抗。我们研究威胁到旅游者自由的心理后果，使用一系列的投射技术：直接地，使用照片表达，和间接地，通过拼接，照片采访和场景分析。我们发现感抗理论帮助解释旅行到两个不同目的地的程度：斯瓦尔巴群岛和威尼斯，提供一个对旅游者如何通过三个递增阶段存储他们的自由来旅行的微妙理解。这三个阶段为：否认气候变化威胁，减少因旅行而引起的紧张，提高需求特别是对最受威胁的目的地。理论建议第四个阶段，无助，当消费者不再享受，他们将目的地的价值驳回。这种情况对我们来说，还没有数据。感抗理论对提高活动作为行为改变的方法的认知是否有效性提出疑问，提供了另外的解释，关于最经常自我宣布具有环保认知个人旅行的，和帮助对可持续性市场营销微妙地确认，社会接受形式的，有能力减少对抗改变。
This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report (IPCC-SRREN) assesses the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change. It covers the six most important renewable energy sources - bioenergy, solar, geothermal, hydropower, ocean and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. SRREN brings a broad spectrum of technology-specific experts together with scientists studying energy systems as a whole. Prepared following strict IPCC procedures, it presents an impartial assessment of the current state of knowledge: it is policy relevant but not policy prescriptive. SRREN is an invaluable assessment of the potential role of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, and academic researchers.
This paper explores the creation and use of a long-term global tourism transport model for private and public sector tourism policy makers. Given that technology is unlikely to reduce tourism transport's impact on climate change sufficiently to avoid serious dangers, behavioural change is necessary. The model presented here helps policy makers and the tourism sector evaluate behavioural change measures. Such tools to assess long-term (up to a century) policy impacts do not currently exist. Projecting behavioural change over such long periods is difficult with contemporary economic modelling. This paper's model is founded in psychological economics theory and mechanisms at work in product diffusion. It describes the tourism system based on identifiable mechanisms and not on statistical relations with only current validity. It delivers global numbers of trips and distances travelled per transport mode as a function of transport cost, travel time, population and income distribution. The model is based on theories including product innovation theory (Bass model) and prospect theory (psychological value). It has been successfully calibrated to tourism development between 1900 and 2005 and tested against future low and high growth economic and demographic scenario combinations. Implications for tourism travel and climate change are discussed.