How to Engage and Adapt to Unprecedented Extremes

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Meeting Summary
Title: How to engage and adapt to unprecedented extremes
Authors: Dominic Matte1*, Jens H. Christensen2, Martin Drews3, Stefan Sobolowski11,
Dominique Paquin1, Amanda Lynch14, Scott Bremer11, Ida Engholm13, Nicolas D. Brunet 9, Erik
W. Kolstad10, Helena Kettleborough12, Vikki Thompson5, Emanuele Bevacqua6, Dorothy
Heinrich7, Sara C Pryor4, Andrea Böhnisch15, Frauke Feser16, Andreas F Prein17, Erich Fischer8 ,
Martin Leduc1
*Corresponding author: matte.dominic@ouranos.ca
Affiliations:
1 Ouranos, Montréal, Québec, Canada
2 PICE, Niels Bohr Institue, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
3 Technical University of Denmark, Kgs, Lyngby, Denmark,
4 Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca NY, USA
5 Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands.
6 Department of Compound Environmental Risks, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental
Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
7. Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, the Hague, Netherlands.
8 Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
9 School of Environmental Design and Rural Development, University of Guelph, Guelph,
Canada
10 NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
11. University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
12. Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
13. Royal Danish Academy, Copenhagen, Denmark
14. Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University, Providence, US
15 Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
16 Institute of Coastal Systems, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
17 NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, US
What: Facing the urgent challenge of extreme weather and climate related events, our societal
frameworks for 'resilience' and 'adaptation' are proving to be insufficient. This paper introduces
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Accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0138.1.
the "Exploring Unprecedented Extremes" workshop, which was convened to elucidate the
research gap in light of such challenges. The workshop tackled a broad spectrum of issues,
ranging from assessing out-of-sample climatic events that defy traditional modeling approaches
to enhancing the communication of risks and likelihoods associated with such unprecedented
events.
When: November 21-23, 2023
Where: Ouranos, Montréal, Canada
Form: Hybrid
Sponsors: Québec-Nordic Council of Ministers cooperation
Motivations
“We cannot confront what we cannot imagine. -Amanda Lynch, November 2023-”
Evolution of the global climate system means that regional and local events that were previously
considered record-breaking very rare singular (one parameter) or compound events are becoming
more frequent. While some of these events are present in the historical record and thus the
change can be ascribed to a reduction in return period, others were unprecedented or even
inconceivable in the observational record. The latter are challenging to predict and represent a
break from accumulated, inductive wisdom. In many cases, these occurrences and their impacts
are truly unprecedented (many sigmas out of range in a statistical sense (Thompson et al., 2023;
Zeder et al., 2023)), pushing the boundaries of our imagination and our communication
strategies, while also prompting us to reconsider if “climate change adaptation” and “increased
resilience” are enough to handle the future . Rather, they suggest a complete transformation in
adaptation governance, how populations operate under and engage with scientific, social,
cultural, political, educational, and economic structures for addressing climate related extremes
(O’Brien 2012).
With ongoing climate warming and increasing population in areas with low resiliency and high
socioeconomic exposure, the potential for more severe events is concerning as disasters are a
product of event intensity, exposure, vulnerability and adaptative capacity. Insufficient or
maladapted preparedness may result in breakdowns within specific sectors or even contribute to
societal instability. Effective planning for these types of events involves multiple factors, with
the initial challenge lying in forming expectations or integrating such extremes i into our
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planning and adaption strategies —a task complicated by events that fall far outside our lived
experience. Anticipating changes in single and compound extremes of unprecedented intensities
demands transformational societal changes. It means critically reviewing and connecting the
diverse ‘ways of knowing’ and acting around extreme events, how communities prepare,
respond, and recover. Relying solely on climate sciences may prove insufficient for anticipating
impactful events and their consequences; embracing co-production approaches that involve an
inter- or trans-disciplinary perspective widens the potential to foresee such occurrences. More
specifically, we have to begin identifying (or developing storylines/scenarios of) what a black
swan may look like, to prepare adequately for the future record-shattering events suggested
plausible by climate science. Scientifically, inspecting unprecedented events may fall beyond the
scope of our standard problem-solving and statistical methods. Exploring alternative strategies
hence becomes necessary.
Novel situations such as unprecedented climate hazards have been illustrated by recent extreme
events. For example, Tropical Cyclone Freddy in 2023 set records for duration and energy across
the Indian Ocean and became the third-deadliest cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere. Cape
Town faced a rare one-in-400 year drought between 2015 and 2018, nearly depleting its water
supply. In 2017, a massive landslide instigated by permafrost degradation in West Greenland
triggered an enormous and deadly tsunami in Nuugaatsiaq. The 2021 floods in Germany and
wildfires in Europe and North America in recent years highlight the reality of such extreme
events in assumed well-prepared regions, underscoring the global challenge of adapting to
unexpected climate threats. Additionally, the marine heatwaves of 2023, the record-breaking
global ocean temperatures of the past year (365 days and counting!) alongside the Pacific
Northwest heatwave of 2021 (~50 °C at 50 degrees North!), further emphasize the urgency of
addressing these challenges. Importantly, climate change may surprise us with unprecedented
events resulting from novel combinations of multiple hazards, for instance hazards from tropical
cyclone–deadly heat compound hazards have emerged in the last decades (Matthews et al.,
2019). Weather events can be unprecedented across multiple dimensions (e.g. intensity, spatial
extent, occurrence of antecedent conditions etc.), all of which have significantly different
implications for preparedness (Heinrich et al.2024 - under review).
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Accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0138.1.
As a first tentative step to developing a community of practice, an international workshop
entitled "Exploring Unprecedented Extremes" was convened in November 2023, held by
Ouranos in Montreal as a hybrid event with both physical attendees and online participation. This
event brought together experts from diverse fields to deliberate on innovative approaches to
climate change adaptation and mitigation. Emphasizing co-creation and interdisciplinary
collaboration, the workshop addressed key themes such as the integration of various sectors into
climate change strategies, the complexities of decision-making under uncertainty, and the crucial
role of transdisciplinary research in comprehensively understanding and effectively responding to
climate extremes through sessions with predetermined orientations. The event raised the need for
transformational learning to enable communities, NGOs and research institutions to respond
hopefully rather than being overwhelmed by the scale of the challenges (Kettleborough, 2023).
Participants with expertise in risk governance and foresight research, including research into the
use of imagination and storytelling, along with climate modelers and analysts comprised the
participants. The following sections provide an overview of the different topics addressed during
the sessions.
Uncharted horizons
At the complex interface between climate science and policymaking, the interpretation and
application of climate data plays a critical role in shaping effective responses to climate change.
It can be challenging to grasp the nuances between terms like 'unprecedented' and 'extremes',
highlighting a fundamental divide between the realms of scientific research and decision-making.
Scientists focus on empirical or simulated data to identify climatic anomalies, often dealing with
data that, by nature, possess varying but quantifiable degrees of confidence. On the other hand,
decision-makers interpret these terms through the tangible impacts of disasters, emphasizing
socio-economic, human, and environmental concerns but with a high robustness to uncertainty.
The challenge lies in effectively bridging the gap between the scientific and decision-making
communities when it comes to understanding terms like 'unprecedented' and 'extremes.' This
highlights a crucial communication challenge: the scientific community must find effective ways
to convey the complexities and uncertainties of climate data, ensuring that it is both
comprehensive and practical for policy and decision-making processes.
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One aspect of this governance partnership is communication. The content of the communication
is entirely dependent on the receiver, sender, and the message that is to be delivered (Ingemann,
2003). Communicating extremes has some severity to it that can stress the urgency or extreme
consequences of climate change. It can be seen as less politically relevant, since the likelihood is
lower and uncertainty higher, which doesn’t speak to the policymakers demands (Garvin, 2011),
but it relates to a true story present in the public memory – and therefore of relevance to the
public (van der Wiel et al., 2021; Zscheischler et al., 2018; 2022; Bevacqua et al., 2021,
Shepherd et al., 2018). Communicating extremes in an understandable and engaging manner is
clearly an active choice to stress the importance of knowledge and action on the current climate
change progression.
For example, storytelling and the use of interactive polls and media can serve as effective tools
for conveying information to meet the demands for a focus on consequences and guidance from
entities such as municipalities. As an example of meteorological institutes employing this
approach, some countries are using story maps to communicate climate change through user-
friendly platforms with interactive visuals (Belfast Storymaps 2022; Netherland Map Narratives
2023, imaginative story: https://unseenheat.com/).
Co-production
In the realm of co-production, knowledge about out-of-sample events does not necessarily equate
to understanding extreme impacts from such events. Extremes must be contextualized with
changing contexts and vulnerabilities. Stakeholder engagement has emerged as a central element
in planning and policy development processes addressing climate change adaptation responses. It
has been widely applied in case studies around the world (e.g. Brunner et al. 2004; Brunet et al.
2014; Alcamo 2008; Tompkins et al. 2008; Brunner and Lynch 2010; Cairns et al. 2013) and is a
proven approach to effecting adaptive governance. Conclusions drawn from these studies point
towards the shortcomings of using isolated workshops and argue for a more continuous
knowledge-rich stakeholder engagement process. Yet the structural and continuous engagement
of a broad set of decision-makers to support the establishment of sustained learning communities
of practice has rarely been pursued (Kasemir et al. 2003). With the "Exploring Unprecedented
Extremes" workshop, one aspiration was to involve scholars accustomed to this agenda in
recognizing the necessity of asking: What kinds of extremes might require a paradigm shift from
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the building of resilience to transformation? Are these extremes influenced by climate change
alone or are they dominated by other factors? What can we learn about adaptation and/or
transformation (O'Brien, 2012 ; Pelling et al., 2015) across different physical settings and
events?
Co-production is usually applied to a transdisciplinary bringing-together of diverse ways of
knowing, both within the formal scientific academy, and extending to other knowledge systems
in other social worlds; from local and traditional knowledges to crafts and professions(Scott
1998). It is justified as a way of building more comprehensive understandings of phenomena -
like extremes - as well as a normatively good way of engaging with affected parties, and
instrumentally empowering groups to put actionable knowledge to use. But what counts as
knowledge - its norms and criteria of quality, its methods and means of communication - varies
widely across social contexts, and can be opaque to 'outsiders'. Connecting these different worlds
demands a transparent process of dialogue wherein participants critically engage with their own
and other ways of knowing (Daly, 2021). When carried out thoughtfully and ethically such
processes take time and cannot be rushed, demanding that trust between collaborators is built
over time (Brunet et al. 2014). Speeding this process up may be achieved based on working with
'trusted partners' - that is the idea of using existing professional networks for the onward
communication/dissemination. Hence when concluding a project they become the mechanism for
disseminating the results and also feeding back questions to the science community being useful
to scope future studies. This is a challenge to many research agendas driven by the timelines of
funding schemes and to some individuals that may not always fully appreciate the complexity of
establishing trust, when this involves elements from an entirely different approach towards
knowledge generating – the cognitive element of the entire exercise. Here the notion of extended
ways of knowing (Heron, 1996) offers direction in how such trust might be achieved. Disciplines
such as co-operative inquiry from action research offer methodologies to help (Kurio and
Reason, 2021).
State-of-the-art extremes modeling approaches and gaps
Typically, there is a prevailing assumption that our existing understanding of the current climate
state can be extrapolated to the future. Unexpected out-of-sample events raise several crucial yet
challenging questions, including: Could this event have been predicted using the available
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climate data? Could this event have been even more severe? How long until we surpass these
records? And ultimately, do our existing approaches enable us to accurately model and
apprehend such events? These questions prompt a more fundamental scientific question, namely
What tools are 'best suited' to possibly evolving evidence for unprecedented extremes? And
related to this: Can we evolve ways to evaluate the credibility of 'black swans' that derive from
different tools?
In the last decade, several approaches have been developed and some of these were discussed
during the workshop. Research into climate and weather phenomena has primarily progressed
along two main paths: statistical and physically based approaches. The statistical approach has
focused on developing methodologies for analyzing the likelihood of extreme events. This
involves examining occurrences characterized by their exceptionally high values, thus their
notable rarity.
As computing resources have expanded, there has been a surge in the number of physical
approaches to studying climate change, with the pseudo-global warming (PGW) method
emerging as both popular and accessible. Initially introduced by Schär et al. (1996), this
approach investigates how past weather situations might have behaved under future or
preindustrial climate conditions, akin to anticipated climate changes (Aalbers et al., 2023;
Hawkins et al., 2023). This method has several limitations (inaccuracies in future atmospheric
dynamics representations (Rasmussen, 2011; Zhou et al., 2023) and distortions from anomalies
in lateral boundary conditions (Matte et al., 2022))
Recent advances have enabled research centers with global models to enhance the study of
extreme weather events, including compound events like hot-dry summers (Bevacqua et al.,
2023), through large ensembles (Deser et al., 2014), creating diverse climate trajectories by
slightly changing initial conditions. Using such ensembles of initialised climate models, it can be
assumed that extreme events identified are physically plausible – providing biases in the model
itself are assessed and understood (Thompson et al., 2017; Kelder et al., 2022). Still, large
ensembles often suffer from low spatial model grid spacing to reduce computing costs, nor does
this approach guarantee to fully scoping out what is “possible”. This limits the accuracy of
extreme event simulations and makes specific event detection challenging, further complicated
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by discrepancies between simulated and actual events. To mitigate this shortcoming, regional
large ensemble simulations have emerged in recent years (Fyfe et al., 2017; Aalbers et al., 2018;
Leduc et al., 2019, von Trentini et al., 2019; Tucker et al., 2022).
A novel method (Ensemble Boosting, see Fischer et al., 2023) presented at the workshop uses the
initial condition uncertainty in order to efficiently sample very rare extremes, assessing if short-
term natural variability could have made an event more severe. Re-initiating simulations before a
model event using perturbed initial states allows exploring worst-case scenarios. A small change
in the initial state, in a similar manner to the ‘butterfly flaps its wings’ analogy, enables the
model to evolve differently, sometimes leading to a more extreme event. An event which could
have occurred, given the initial climate state.
In addition to the methods discussed, some researchers have utilized kilometer-scale modeling.
However, the main challenge with these high-resolution convective-permitting models (CPM, see
Prein et al., 2015) lies in their significant computational requirements, confining their use to a
few well-resourced climate research centers. However, innovative methods such as storyline
simulations (Kawase et al. 2021, van Garderen at al., 2021) or downscaling of extreme weather
situations from large ensembles with km-scale models (Huang and Swain 2022) emerge as
promising pathways forward.
A call for future work in research and practice
The compelling drive behind efforts to explore unprecedented climate extremes is shaped by the
urgent necessity for a profound transformation in our societal, cultural, political, and economic
frameworks in response to the escalating frequency and severity of extremes that are unexpected
and out-of-sample. The traditional concepts of "resilience" and "adaptation," while valuable, may
not be adequate to meet the complex challenges posed by these phenomena. This realization
underscores the importance of innovative thinking and the adoption of transdisciplinary
approaches to effectively anticipate and mitigate the impacts of such events.
The motivation for the "Exploring Unprecedented Extremes" workshop was deeply rooted in the
recognition that to effectively prepare for and address the irreducible uncertainties of climate
extremes, a shift in perspective is essential. This includes moving beyond conventional
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resilience-building efforts towards embracing comprehensive strategies for societal – and
scientific – transformation. The workshop will serve as a foundation for examining how
extremes, influenced by ongoing climate change, necessitate a reevaluation of our approaches to
adaptation and the identification of strategies that can foster transformation across various
physical settings and events. The format and ideas of the workshop could be replicated in
different countries around the world, bringing together, for example, scientists, NGOs,
communities and governments both local and national.
The workshop enabled the establishment of foundational guidelines for various types of climate-
related extremes. The first category refers to record-breaking events, which are theoretically
anticipated meteorological/climatological extreme occurrences. These events fall within our
existing understanding of physical and statistical norms, meaning they are confined to the bounds
of recognized natural variability. The second category, out of sample events, encompasses events
that fall outside both the observational record and previous experience, and can only be
adequately researched retrospectively.
The third category consists of conceptualized extreme events, which stretch the limits of what
could potentially occur within the constraints of scientific knowledge and stakeholder insights.
These unknown events are initially conceptualized in collaboration with stakeholders, for
instance, by identifying thresholds that might signify a critical breakpoint in their respective
sectors. Following this, these scenarios undergo analysis to evaluate their probability and
physical feasibility, distinguishing them from the observed out of sample events as they are
constructed events reflecting our current state of resilience.
The fourth category are observed high-impact events (from the physical climate and/or impact
side) which represent disasters of a more intricate nature, arising not solely from record-breaking
or out-of-sample events (though they may also originate from these) but significantly influenced
by societal factors (Bouchard et al., 2023). To effectively analyze such events, reliance on
physical sciences alone falls short. Only through a transdisciplinary approach can these events be
fully understood, processed, and potentially guide the development of suitable plans for
adaptation or transformation.
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The fifth category represents a complexity of a higher order: it is both unlikely and yet unseen,
lying outside the realm of our current imagination. Similar to the fourth category, this requires a
transdisciplinary approach. However, the difficulty is in predicting meteorological or climatic
events that are outside our current understanding but still have a non-zero probability of
occurrence. When these events interact with evolving societal conditions, they could trigger
unexpected collapses in various societal sectors, leaving us completely unprepared.
The workshop demonstrated some limitations of current approaches. Ultimately, it also became
evident that the scientific community focused on climate issues which make it difficult to get rid
of the myth of the knowledge deficit model (Lemos et al., 2012; Bradley et al. 2020). This model
presumes that public skepticism or resistance towards scientific discoveries and technological
advancements stems chiefly from a shortfall in knowledge or comprehension. Within this
framework, the concept of co-production away from the largely discredited knowledge deficit
model should be a core element in research on climate-related extremes. The workshop
underlined the urgency of the tasks facing society and the crucial importance of helping
individuals, communities and organizations understand that wise action is needed now.
Acknowledgments
The event was funded via a bilateral Québec-Nordic Council of Ministers cooperation. The NSF
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is a major facility sponsored by the National
Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement #1852977. Emanuele Bevacqua
received funding from the DFG via the Emmy Noether Programme (grant ID 524780515). N.D.
Brunet’s participation was supported by NFRFR Grant 2021-00221.
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