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Nativa, Sinop, v. 12, n. 2, p. 285-293, 2024.
Pesquisas Agrárias e Ambientais
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31413/nativa.v12i2.17414
ISSN: 2318-7670
Impacts of renewable energy on Ukraine’s energy sustainability
Anatolii CHERNIAVSKYI 1* , Olena BORYCHENKO 1, Vitaliy POBIGAYLO 1,
Liudmyla SAVCHENKO 2, Serhii DUDNIKOV 3
1 National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Kyiv, Ukraine.
2 Polissya National University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine.
3 State Biotechnological University, Kharkiv, Ukraine.
*E-mail: canatoliy_1976@gmail.com
Submitted on: 04/04/2024; Accepted on: 05/13/2024; Published on: 05/22/2024.
ABSTRACT: In the face of the rapid advancement of energy systems and the requirements of modern
society, analyzing the impact of alternative energy sources on the sustainability of these systems is a significant
issue for countries, with Ukraine being no exception. This paper meticulously examines alternative energy
sources' technical and engineering aspects, weighing their advantages and limitations in sustainable
development. The objective is to identify the most effective strategies to bolster sustainable energy
development in Ukraine, taking into account economic, environmental, and social aspects. The research
adopts a comprehensive analytical approach, utilizing a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, to assess
the implications of alternative energy sources on the sustainability of energy systems within the context of
Ukraine's sustainable development. It reviews policy documents and international agreements to gain insights
into the regulatory and economic landscape. It also analyzes trends in energy production, consumption, and
investment in alternative energy projects in Ukraine, comparing them with traditional energy sources.
However, this sector's sustainable development hinges on providing adequate government support and
creating a favorable business environment. The research underscores that one of the primary responsibilities
of the Ukrainian government is to protect investors in RES and create the conditions for their continued
operations.
Keywords: sustainable development; alternative energy sources; energy efficiency; economic growth.
Impactos das energias renováveis na sustentabilidade energética da Ucrânia
RESUMO: Dado o rápido desenvolvimento dos sistemas energéticos e as necessidades da sociedade
moderna, a análise do impacto das fontes alternativas de energia na sustentabilidade destes sistemas é uma
questão importante para os países, especialmente a Ucrânia. Este artigo fornece uma análise aprofundada dos
aspectos técnicos e de engenharia, das fontes alternativas de energia, e, avalia suas vantagens e limitações no
desenvolvimento sustentável. Nesse sentido, o objetivo é identificar as melhores estratégias para apoiar o
desenvolvimento energético sustentável na Ucrânia, considerando aspectos econômicos, ambientais e sociais.
Adota-se uma abordagem analítica abrangente para avaliar as implicações das fontes alternativas de energia
na sustentabilidade dos sistemas energéticos no contexto do desenvolvimento sustentável da Ucrânia. Foram
revisados documentos políticos e acordos internacionais para compreender o panorama regulamentar e
econômico. Foram analisadas tendências na produção, consumo e investimento de energia em projetos de
energia alternativa na Ucrânia e comparadas com as fontes de energia tradicionais. No entanto, o
desenvolvimento sustentável deste setor requer apoio governamental adequado e um ambiente empresarial
favorável. Destaca-se que uma das principais tarefas do governo ucraniano nesse sentor, é proteger os
investidores em RES e criar as condições para as suas futuras atividades.
Palavras-chave: desenvolvimento sustentável; fontes de energia alternativa; eficiência energética;
crescimento econômico.
1. INTRODUCTION
According to a resolution adopted in 2012 by the UN
General Assembly, economic progress, which is currently
leading to the rapid accumulation of material and human
resources, is coming at the expense of excessive depletion
and degradation of natural resources, which is deepening
inequality among people (REDKO et al., 2022). Modern
energy sources are divided into traditional and alternative.
Traditional ones, such as oil, gas, and coal, have a serious
drawback: they cannot be renewed. Sometimes, the reserves
of these resources will be exhausted, so it is necessary to turn
to other energy sources. This problem determines the need
to research and develop alternative energy sources
(MOLDOVANOV, 2020; PAVLYK, 2020).
Another problematic aspect is the negative impact on the
environment. Using traditional sources leads to greenhouse
gas emissions that affect the climate. Recently, these changes
have become more noticeable: an increase in floods,
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286
hurricanes, droughts, and other weather events that cannot
be controlled (ZAPOTOTSKA; SKLIAROV, 2019;
LYULYOV et al., 2021).
One of the ways to reduce the negative impact on the
climate is to switch to alternative energy sources, such as
wind, hydro, solar, and biogas. They are environmentally
friendly and renewable. The urgency of the energy balance
problem is becoming apparent in the modern world. The
community faces an energy crisis when the electricity demand
is several times higher than its production - about 27-30
trillion kilowatt-hours annually. The development of society
is indirectly linked to the energy resources used to create new
products. Humanity's increasing material and spiritual needs
lead to an increase in energy demand (PAVLYK, 2020;
SOTNYK et al., 2021).
The media often promote new energy generation
methods, promising a cleaner future. But why is the share of
these sources in energy production growing so slowly? The
main problem is that no energy source competitive with
traditional methods has yet been identified. Currently, 80%
of energy is produced through the combustion of coal, oil,
gas, and other natural resources that will be exhaustible in a
few centuries (GNANGOIN et al., 2022). As Sembiyeva et
al. (2023) note, investments in green technologies play a key
role in energy security and sustainable development. One way
to transition to greener energy sources is to adopt national
and international regulatory laws limiting fuel resource
extraction. However, many countries, particularly the Gulf
states, do not limit production for reasons of economic
viability (RENA, 2023).
Therefore, North American and European countries
already bear the brunt of energy conservation. A growing
number of researchers are looking for more efficient energy
sources using renewable resources. Among the promising
energy sources are flowing water and wind, ocean tides, heat
from the earth's interior, and solar energy. Active research is
also underway to reproduce thermonuclear processes similar
to those on stars (VOUMIK et al., 2023).
Energy is conceptualized as the ability to perform work
using physical forces. According to Efayena et al. (2022),
energy is a critical resource from which individuals can derive
electricity and heat. The authors point out that the energy
potential of a river varies when its flow speed relative to the
ground changes compared to its speed relative to a
motorboat. They emphasize the need to develop and use
alternative energy sources to meet the increasing global
demand for energy. These sources are categorized according
to their origin, technological processes and the natural
environment, with a primary distinction between renewable
(such as solar, wind, hydro and biomass) and non-renewable
sources. Renewable sources are described as using solar
panels to convert sunlight into electricity, wind turbines to
convert kinetic energy, hydroelectric dams to convert water
flow and biomass to convert organic materials into energy.
Although renewable energy sources are becoming
increasingly popular, there are still viable non-renewable
alternatives. Nuclear power generates substantial energy
output through nuclear reactions but requires careful
management of radioactive materials. Geothermal energy
harnesses heat from the Earth's core, while tidal energy
produces electricity through the movement of water. This
categorization allows exploring diverse energy sources to
meet societal demands, mitigate environmental impact, and
advance sustainable development. However, further
advancements in science and technology are necessary to
optimize the efficient utilization of these resources.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Evaluating solar and wind energy for global
sustainable power challenges
There has been considerable interest in the use of solar
energy recently. Most of the energy that comes to the Earth
is of solar origin, but a significant portion is dissipated in the
atmosphere and hydrosphere (CROSS BORDER
BUSINESS LAW AG, 2023).
The possibilities for direct use of solar energy are great.
The use of 0.0125% of total solar energy would fully satisfy
the current energy needs of mankind, and the use of 0.5%
would ensure them forever (provided that the world's
population does not exceed 20 billion people) (CROSS
BORDER BUSINESS LAW AG, 2023). Unfortunately,
these are only theoretical possibilities. Even under the best
weather conditions, the energy density of a sunbeam does not
exceed 250 W m-2. Let's say that to collect this amount of
energy in a year, it is necessary to place collectors in an area
of 130,000 km2! In addition, to produce such a large number
of collectors, 1.3*109 tonnes of aluminum would be needed.
The world's aluminum reserves are estimated to be
approximately the same (CROSS BORDER BUSINESS
LAW AG, 2023).
There are numerous limitations to the use of solar energy.
In addition to the cost and large volume of resources, the
problem is the lack of free space. For example, if in 2100,
humanity plans to fully meet its energy needs from solar
resources, the area of collectors will be between 1 and 3
million km2. The use of solar radiation will require significant
human resources (CROSS BORDER BUSINESS LAW AG,
2023). So, it is too early to talk about the massive use of solar
energy. Although solar power plants can be useful in areas
remote from the grid and in resorts, the overall contribution
of solar energy is still low. Why build collectors when nature
has larger and more powerful resources such as the
atmosphere and hydrosphere (CROSS BORDER
BUSINESS LAW AG, 2023)?
The energy in moving air masses is hundreds of times
greater than the capacity of all the hydroelectric power
stations on Earth's rivers. The wind constantly blows over
the earth, from small splashes to strong storms. These
unexpected air currents can satisfy all the needs of humanity.
However, the share of electricity generated by wind is only
0.1%. Why is there such a limit to the promising and
environmentally friendly use of wind energy? Humankind has
been harnessing wind power for more than 5,000 years. First,
the wind was used to propel boats, grind grain and pump
water. Nowadays, wind power is used to generate electricity.
Even though the cost of electricity from wind is currently
relatively low at 4 cents per kilowatt-hour, new wind power
projects often do not pay off for a long time. The most
successful project was the installation of wind turbines on the
Hawaiian island of Ohio. A giant turbine with a blade
diameter of 122 meters generates more than 6,200 kW at a 47
km h-1 wind speed. The steady rise in energy prices will make
such projects even more profitable, and the share of wind
energy may increase over time (CROSS BORDER
BUSINESS LAW AG, 2023) (Figure 1).
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287
Figure 1. Assessment results of the energy efficiency gaps in Ukraine
in 2002-2019. (Source: VASYLIEVA et al., 2021)
Figura 1. Avaliação das lacunas de eficiência energética na Ucrânia
em 2002-2019 (VASYLIEVA et al., 2021).
2.2. Renewable energy sources and their impact on
economic growth in Ukraine
Hydropower, deriving from the kinetic energy of river
water, stands as a notable renewable energy source. This
technique harnesses the flow of water to produce electrical
energy, facilitated by hydropower plants equipped with
turbines that convert water movement into electricity.
Various methods of tapping into river flow for energy
production possess distinct advantages. They are considered
clean and renewable energy sources that do not emit harmful
substances into the atmosphere. Hydropower plants can be
of different sizes - from small to large mega-projects -
depending on the river flow volume. However, the use of
river energy has its limitations. Special structures, such as
dams, are often required to store water and create the flow
needed for power generation. This can affect river
ecosystems and natural landscapes, creating serious problems
(RAZUMKOV CENTRE, 2019).
Despite this, hydropower remains one of the most
efficient methods of electricity generation, providing a steady
stream of energy with relatively low carbon emissions.
Development and research in this area aim to reduce the
negative impact on the natural environment and improve
technologies to maximize the efficient use of this important
energy source (GHOBAKHLOO & FATHI, 2021).
2.3. Geothermal and marine energy dynamics
Since ancient times, people have known about a huge
source of energy hidden deep in the Earth's crust. The power
of even the smallest volcanoes exceeds the capabilities of any
artificial power plant by hundreds of times. Although
humanity has not yet developed a way to harness the energy
of volcanoes directly, Iceland is already an excellent example
of the rational use of this underground resource. This country
is fully self-sufficient in the heat with the help of hot
fountains that operate with incredible precision (CROSS
BORDER BUSINESS LAW AG, 2023). The initial
experiments using geysers did not take place in Iceland. The
ancient Romans tried to use the heat of geysers for their baths
in Caracalla (CROSS BORDER BUSINESS LAW AG,
2023). Energy from the depths of the earth is used not only
for heating. Some power plants use hot underground
resources and have been operating for a long time. The first
such plant was built in 1904. Today, there is a 500-kilowatt
geothermal power plant near the city of San Francisco.
However, hot springs are not everywhere on earth. Although
geysers are a great energy source, their location complicates
any attempts to use these resources globally (CROSS
BORDER BUSINESS LAW AG, 2023).
Ocean energy, or marine power, uses the various forms
of energy found in seawater to create electricity. This energy
source includes tides, waves, ocean currents, and the
temperature difference between the surface and the ocean's
depths. One method of harnessing marine energy is tidal
power, which uses the natural movement of water caused by
tides to drive turbines. Wave energy is another method where
generators convert wave vibrations into electricity. Electricity
also turns turbines that operate according to the water flow.
Some technologies use the temperature difference between
the surface and the ocean's depth to create electricity
(Shedding light on energy - 2023 edition - Eurostat, n.d.).
Marine energy can be an important source of renewable
energy. It is very environmentally friendly and does not emit
carbon into the atmosphere. However, technological
development, production costs, and the impact on marine
ecosystems remain challenges in this area. Innovations and
research aim to reduce costs and negative environmental
impacts to optimize this energy source's potential (Shedding
Light on Energy - 2023 edition - Eurostat, n.d.; KUROK et
al., 2023).
The state of the Ukrainian economy regarding energy
production and use is at a critical juncture, and the
government needs to introduce appropriate policies.
Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the link between energy
efficiency and development to assess its impact in the future.
The results of this study have important implications for
policy-making in Ukraine and promoting optimal growth.
The study focuses on the relationship between energy
efficiency and economic growth in Ukraine, which is
important for policymakers, economists, and academics to
ensure sustainable development, strategic energy strategy,
and environmental protection. Understanding this
relationship's dynamics helps identify opportunities to
promote economic growth and implement efficient and
responsible energy use.
2.4. Research Objectives
The primary aim of this study is to explore the relationship
between energy efficiency and economic development in
Ukraine. This investigation aims to answer two key questions:
1. What is the relationship between energy efficiency
and economic growth in Ukraine during its transition
period?
2. How does energy efficiency affect economic growth?
3. METHODOLOGY
This study adopts a comprehensive analytical approach to
assess the implications of alternative energy sources on the
sustainability of energy systems within the context of
Ukraine's sustainable development.
3.1. General Background
The investigation commences by outlining the evolution
and present state of global energy systems, with a particular
emphasis on Ukraine. Given Ukraine's distinct geopolitical
and environmental circumstances, notably the ongoing
conflict and its pursuit of sustainable development, the
research is contextualized within these parameters. This
approach lays the groundwork for comprehending the
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288
pivotal role of alternative energy in realizing sustainability
objectives.
3.2. Data Collection
Data were systematically gathered from various sources,
including government reports, energy sector analyses, and
academic journals. These sources offered insights into the
technical characteristics, efficiency, and environmental
impacts of various alternative energy technologies (wind,
solar, hydro, and biomass) and their implementation in
Ukraine. Policy documents and international agreements
were also reviewed to understand the regulatory and
economic landscape.
2.3. Data Analysis
Trends in energy production, consumption, and
investment in alternative energy projects in Ukraine were
analyzed, compared to traditional energy sources, and
assessed to assess their impact on sustainability indicators
such as carbon emissions, energy security, and economic
viability.
3.4. Methodological Challenges
The study acknowledges the complexity of accurately
predicting the long-term impacts of alternative energy
adoption, considering the fluctuating geopolitical situation,
technological advancements, and global energy markets. The
research adopts scenario analysis to mitigate these
uncertainties, exploring various future paths based on
different levels of alternative energy integration into
Ukraine's energy mix.
Through this methodological framework, the study aims
to provide a holistic understanding of how alternative energy
sources can contribute to the sustainability of Ukraine's
energy systems. The findings are intended to inform
policymakers, stakeholders, and researchers about the
strategic direction for energy development in Ukraine,
emphasizing the balance between economic growth,
environmental protection, and social equity.
4. RESULTS
4.1. Renewable energy sector in Ukraine in 2021
In 2021, the Ukrainian energy sector is in a critical
position to determine the strategic direction of its further
development. This is especially true for the renewable energy
sector (RES). On the one hand, the government has begun
to gradually fulfill the obligations set out in the Memorandum
of Understanding on the Resolution of Problematic Issues in
the Renewable Energy Sector of Ukraine, which was signed
in June 2020 with the mediation of the Energy Community.
This led to the start of debt repayment to renewable energy
producers, which positively impacted the market. However,
at the same time, there were attempts at the state level to turn
feed-in tariffs into illegal state aid or an illegally applied
measure. At the initiative of the Antimonopoly League, there
have been attempts to recognize feed-in tariffs as illegal or
unconstitutionally applied. Nevertheless, the President of
Ukraine made an international commitment to end domestic
coal consumption by 2035 and phase out the use of thermal
energy from 2022 by signing the Global Energy Declaration
on Wind Turbines at COP26 (OGARENKO; ALIYEVA,
2017; THE CABINET OF MINISTERS OF UKRAINE,
2017; SKOROKHOD; KOSTIUK, 2021).
On the other hand, the government continues focusing
on maintaining the outdated nuclear infrastructure. It
approves the state program for developing the nuclear
industrial complex until 2026. Contradictory actions and
commitments raise concerns about the country's future
energy development strategy (SOTNYK, 2021).
Figure 2. Composition of Ukraine's Electricity Generation and
Trade in the First Half of 2020. (Source: Bushovska, 2021)
Figura 2. Composição da geração e comércio de eletricidade da
Ucrânia no primeiro semestre de 2020. (Fonte: Bushovska, 2021)
5. DISCUSSION
Numerous studies confirm the correlation between
energy use and a country's economic progress (BUZUGBE,
2023).
In 2019, Ukraine was ranked among the top 10 countries
worldwide for the rapid development of renewable energy,
and in 2020 - among the top 5 countries in Europe for the
active expansion of solar energy. According to the Climate-
scope analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, in 2019,
Ukraine ranked 8th out of 104 countries in terms of
investment attractiveness in low-carbon energy sources and
the formation of a green economy. However, in 2021, the
country ranked 48th in terms of overall investment potential
among 136 countries, according to Bloomberg NEF
(KONECHENKOV, 2022).
Since 2019, investments in new renewable energy projects
in Ukraine have consistently exceeded investments in fossil
fuel projects. Over the past ten years, domestic and
international investors have invested more than $12 billion in
FDI in renewable energy in Ukraine's economy. At the end
of 2021, about 35% of the installed capacity in the renewable
energy sector was owned by foreign investors, which
demonstrates the competitiveness and openness of the
Ukrainian renewable energy market (Production of "green"
energy by facilities and the number of "green" tariffs, n.d.).
BUSHOVSKA (2021) critically examines the Ukrainian
government's inadequate efforts in promoting renewable
energy sources. According to data presented in Figure 2 of
the article, the primary sources of Ukraine's electricity
generation in the first half of 2020 were nuclear, thermal, and
hydroelectric power. The country produced 73,431 million
kWh of electricity during this period, exporting 2,676.4
million kWh and importing 1,756.6 million kWh.
This analysis underscores the critical need for a strategic
shift towards more sustainable and renewable energy sources,
highlighting the gap in government support and the potential
for policy enhancement to foster a more renewable-centric
energy sector.
During this period, the list of the largest international
lenders and investors in the renewable energy sector of
Ukraine included the European Bank for Reconstruction and
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Development, the Black Sea Trade and Development Bank,
the US International Development Finance Corporation
(DFC), the Bavarian Federal Bank (BayernLB), the
Investment Fund of Nations (IFU), the Nordic Environment
Finance Corporation (NEFCO) and other organizations.
Investments in constructing power plants using this
renewable energy source are represented by organizations
and individual investors from many countries in Europe and
Asia (KONECHENKOV, 2022).
Data from the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory
Commission (NEURC) show that the installed capacity in
Ukraine's renewable energy sector reached 9,655.9 megawatts
as of 31 December 2021 (MINISTRY OF ENERGY OF
UKRAINE, 2023).
It is important to note that significant development in this
area is accounted for by domestic SPPs, which account for
37% of RES capacity (KONECHENKOV, 2022).
According to the data, the total installed capacity of home
solar power systems reached 1205.1 MW at the end of 2021.
Industrial solar has seen a steady decline over the same
period. The industrial solar generation capacity increase in
2021 was only 305.5 MW or 26.1% of the total new RES
capacity commissioned in 2021. Less than 818.1 MW, which
is 3.6 times less than in 2020 (1123.6 MW). Thus, the total
installed solar energy capacity at the end of 2021 is 7586.3
MW, including households. As for wind power, it remains the
second-largest installed capacity in the renewable energy
sector in Ukraine. However, the wind energy sector added
the newest capacity to the country's green energy mix in 2021.
The share of commissioned wind capacity in 2021 was 30.6%
or 358.8 MW. This is 2.5 times higher than the capacity of
new wind farms commissioned in 2020 (144.2 MW). Thus,
the total installed capacity of wind power at the end of 2021
is 1672.9 MW. Before the conflict, 34 wind farms or 699 wind
turbines with an average unit capacity of 3.5 MW, were built
in Ukraine (KONECHENKOV, 2022).
In 2021, bioenergy in Ukraine proved to be a promising
sector, especially in the gas crisis that emerged in late 2021
and early 2022. This sector has the potential to partially
compensate for the shortage of natural gas through heat and
electricity production. During this period, 21 MW of biogas
plants were commissioned, accounting for 1.79% of the total
capacity, twice as much as in 2020. Also, 43.1 MW of biomass
power plants were launched, an increase of 3.68% compared
to the previous year (SYCH et al., 2023).
The share of small hydropower plants commissioned in
2021 is 1.24% or 14.6 MW. This indicates a certain increase
in this renewable energy segment, although the figures are
lower than for other types of bioenergy (SYCH et al., 2023)
(Figure 3).
This trend in increasing renewable energy capacity,
especially in bioenergy, indicates the prospects and
development of alternative energy sources in Ukraine. This
could be an important step in reducing dependence on
imported natural gas (KONECHENKOV, 2022).
5.1. Renewable Energy Sector of Ukraine 2022
According to the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association
(UWEA), during the martial law in Ukraine, the production
of “green” energy by wind and solar power plants decreased
by 80% and 30%, respectively. In a letter dated 28 September
2022, the Minister of Energy of Ukraine and the NEURC
were asked to support Draft Law No. 8191, extending the
agreement term with the “Green” project until 31 December
2024. This will allow for the completion of the construction
of 300 to 500 MW of green power plants and meet the
requirements for ensuring origin and operation developed in
Directive 2009/28/EC and Directive (EC) 2018/2001
(SKOROBOGATOVA et al., 2022; MINISTRY OF
ENERGY OF UKRAINE, 2024).
Figure 3. Wind farms in Ukraine as of the end of 2021 (Source:
Konechenkov, 2022).
Figura 3. Parques eólicos na Ucrânia no final de 2021 (Fonte:
Konechenkov, 2022)
1. Bonus wind turbine, Kyiv region
2. Staryi Sambir 1 WPP, Lviv region
3. Staryi Sambir 2 WPP, Lviv region
4. Zborivska WPP, Ternopil region
5. Bioenergoproduct WPP, Ternopil region
6. Shevchenkove-1 wind farm (first stage), Ivano-Frankivsk region
7. Ovid Wind Wind Farm, Odesa region
8. Dniester wind farm, Odesa region
9. Yuzhne Energy WPP, Odesa region
10. Ochakivskyi wind farm, Mykolaiv region
11. Blagodatny Wind Park, Mykolaiv region
12. Prychornomorsky Wind Park, Mykolaiv region
13. Pivdennyi Wind Park, Mykolaiv region
14. Shchaslyvyi Wind Park, Mykolaiv region
15. Shvydkyi Wind Park, Mykolaiv region
16. WPP "Sinha Energy LLC", Mykolaiv region
17. Novorossiysk wind farm, Kherson region
18. Stavky wind farm, Kherson region
19. Berehova wind farm, Kherson region
20. Novotroitska WPP, Kherson region
21. Overianivska WPP, Kherson region
22. Myrnenska WPP, Kherson region
23. Syvash WPP (2006), Kherson region
24. Syvash Wind Farm (2019), Kherson region
25. Botievo WPP, Zaporizhzhia region
26. Prymorska 1 wind farm, Zaporizhzhia region
27. Prymorska 2 wind farm, Zaporizhzhya region
28. Orlivska WPP, Zaporizhzhia region
29. Zaporizhzhia WPP, Zaporizhzhia region
30. Kramatorsk WPP, Donetsk region
31. Vetroenergoprom, Donetsk region
32. Novoazovsk Wind Park, Donetsk region
33. Krasnodon Wind Park, Luhansk region
34. Lutuginsky wind farm, Luhansk region
In July 2022, the Ministry of Energy reported that about
30% of solar power plants in Ukraine were damaged or
destroyed. The martial law increased the demand for
domestic renewable energy power plants by ten times for
households and 4-5 times for industrial enterprises. On 13
December 2022, Ukraine signed a two-year cooperation
program with the International Energy Agency (IEA) to
restore the power system after the destruction. Key areas
include energy system security, energy efficiency, low-carbon
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hydrogen, renewable energy, biogas, and data analysis and
statistics. According to the World Energy Outlook 2022
study of 6 December 2022, the IEA forecasts significant
growth in renewable energy in other countries and considers
three development scenarios: public policy (STEPS),
announced commitment (APS), and net zero emissions by
2050 (SKOROBOGATOVA; DESNA, 2022).
As of 6 December 2022, low-carbon energy accounted
for approximately 40% of electricity generation (30% from
renewables and 10% from nuclear). According to the STEPS
scenario, renewable energy will account for 45% of total
electricity production by 2030 and 60% in the APS scenario.
The European Union supports onshore and offshore energy
systems, accounting for more than 40% of total electricity
production by 2050 under the STEPS scenario and more
than 50% under the APS and NZE scenarios. According to
the NZE scenario, renewable energy will become the
backbone of the world's economies (SKOROBOGATOVA;
DESNA, 2022).
5.2. Renewable energy sector of Ukraine 2023
According to the State Enterprise Guaranteed Buyer,
UAH 0.46 billion was paid for electricity from renewable
energy sources (RES) in 2022, and UAH 10 billion was paid
for five months of 2023. As of 1 June, 99% of the debt for
2021, 53.9% for 2022 and 57.6% for 2023 has been repaid.
Of these, the payment for April 2023 is 56.3%, and for May
- 50.3%. NPC Ukrenergo's debt to Guaranteed Buyer totalled
UAH 18.56 billion. From 1 January to 1 June 2023,
Guaranteed Buyers purchased 2,923 thousand MWh of
renewable electricity from producers. Of this volume, 64%
was solar, 18% was wind, 14% was bioenergy, and 5% was
hydropower (Actual information on settlements with
electricity producers, n.d.; KONECHENKOV, 2022).
4.3. Exports
Shortly after exports to Slovakia resumed on April 17,
2023, they were halted again at the request of Slovakia. This
brief resumption underscores the absence of significant
connectivity or system stability issues and highlights the
importance of compliance with European rules, including the
implementation of synchronized bilateral auctions. In late
April, discussions between the European Commission, the
Energy Community, Slovak regulators, and the Ukrainian
and Slovak gas transmission system (GTS) operators, led by
NPC Ukrenergo Development, resulted in an agreement to
streamline the coordination of export contracts between the
two countries' GTS operators, subject to further approval by
the Ukrainian authorities (DLF ATTORNEYS-AT-LAW,
2023).
4.4. Import
This seems to be a difficult situation for the electricity
market in Ukraine. The NEURC is currently discussing tariff
changes that could improve the situation of market
participants. This could reduce budgetary expenditures on
energy support and make market entry more attractive.
However, several factors influence this need for change.
Currently, the current price of electricity does not correspond
to the actual energy price, which leads to the fact that the
state budget compensates for the difference between the
price and the actual cost of electricity. However, the budget
does not currently have any sources of capital that could be
used for this purpose (DLF ATTORNEYS-AT-LAW, MAY
19, 2023). Approval of the new tariffs will allow market
participants to operate without incurring large losses. This is
important, especially given the damage to the energy
infrastructure.
In addition, prices set on the market are lower than in
neighboring countries. For example, the Ukrainian price
during peak periods is around EUR 100, while the average
price in the Slovak market is EUR 102 (excluding delivery
and distribution costs). In this situation, importing electricity
for commercial purposes does not make sense if it does not
bring commercial benefits. However, additional financial
resources are needed to compensate for the domestic
production and import deficit, which can be covered by
consumer dollars or the budget (DLF attorneys-at-law (May
19, 2023). Therefore, price changes and electricity market
rules are needed to prepare for the heating season and
possibly compensate for the lack of domestic energy
production through imports (DLF attorneys-at-law (May 19,
2023).
5.5. Future Development of the VDE Sector
These strategies and documents, developed before the
conflict, significantly define the role of renewable energy
sources (RES) in Ukraine's development. The Energy
Strategy until 2035 focuses on the development of renewable
energy sources to achieve 25% of the total primary energy
supply by 2035 from these sources. This strategy envisages
renewables developing most dynamically compared to other
types of production. It also envisages the development of
distributed generation from RES and the introduction of
smart grids (KYRYLENKO et al., 2021).
The Economic Strategy 2030 also identifies
decarbonization, RES development, and circular economy as
the priority areas for developing the national economy. It
aims to increase the share of RES to 25% of total electricity
production by 2030 (CABINET OF MINISTERS OF
UKRAINE, 2021). It also focuses on expanding storage
facilities, hydrogen production, and supporting local
renewable energy production (KONECHENKOV, 2022).
These strategies reflect Ukraine's desire to implement
initiatives to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, improve
energy efficiency, and increase the use of renewable energy
sources in line with European standards and principles of
green development (DIACHYK et al., 2017). The Green
Energy Concept of Ukraine until 2050, launched by the
government in 2020, states that by 2050, the country could
reach a 70% share of renewable energy sources (RES) in
electricity production. Also important are targets of up to
15% from solar energy. It can be provided by plants installed
on the roofs of private homes and commercial complexes
(Production of "green" energy by facilities and the number of
"green" tariffs, n.d.). The RES targets are also reflected in
the National Low-Carbon Development Strategy until 2050
and contribute to the Paris Agreement (Konechenkov, 2022).
However, in the context of a large-scale war with the
Russian Federation, it is necessary to focus on implementing
the 2032 Recovery Plan for Ukraine, presented by the
Government at the international donor conference in
Lugano in 2019. According to this plan, developing the
renewable energy sector will be a priority. The plan envisages
the construction of new solar and wind power plants to
increase export capacity, renewable energy plants to produce
Cherniavskyi et al.
Nativa, Sinop, v. 12, n. 2, p. 285-293, 2024.
291
hydrogen from renewable sources, hydroelectric power
plants, and pumped hydroelectric power plants. It is also
planned to commission new modern facilities, batteries, and
electrolysis plants over the next ten years. Preliminary
estimates of investments in the Energy Independence and
Green Path program amount to $130 billion (SELIKHOVA,
2022).
Specific targets for RES development do not cover all
potential opportunities. For example, according to the
Ukrainian Wind Energy Association, at least 7 GW of new
wind farms could be added by 2030. This is due to the
availability of permits for the construction of new facilities
with a capacity of 4 GW and an increase in the average
capacity of wind turbines to 6 MW or more, which makes
achieving this goal a reality (KONECHENKOV, 2022).
Ukraine's bioenergy potential is also impressive. Biomass
and biofuels can replace natural gas. Biomethane is predicted
to meet up to 30-40% of the EU's gas needs by 2050. Ukraine
can produce up to 10 billion m3 of biomethane annually,
mainly from agricultural waste. It is possible to achieve
biogas/biomethane production of up to 6 billion m3 per year,
some of which can be exported. The country has enough
resources to replace up to 4 billion cubic meters of natural
gas annually by 2030 (KONECHENKOV, 2022).
The development of solar energy is also important. In
Ukraine, installing photovoltaic systems on rooftops and
homes attracts attention (APERGIS et al., 2023). It is
important to note that Ukraine's recovery plan until 2032
does not have specific targets related to offshore wind
energy. However, according to the World Bank, Ukraine has
a high technical potential for developing this industry,
especially in the Black Sea, where the theoretical potential of
offshore wind farms is 250 GW, of which Ukraine has
(APERGIS et al., 2023). Ukraine's Renewal Plan until 2032
defines the strategic direction of renewable hydrogen energy
development in line with the European Hydrogen Strategy.
Recognized by the EU as a priority partner in the hydrogen
transition, Ukraine plans to create 10 GW of renewable
hydrogen production capacity by 2030, 75% of which can be
exported to Europe, including Germany. Even after the war,
these projects remain relevant, and Ukraine has launched
several renewable hydrogen projects (VERKHOVNA
RADA OF UKRAINE, 2021).
The occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
and attempts to disconnect it from the grid, as well as the
control of most coal and gas mines, demonstrate the need to
move away from fossil fuels. These developments and
pressure on Russian oil and gas reveal the hidden costs of
conventional energy. Therefore, renewable energy
associations in Europe and Ukraine believe that the post-war
reconstruction of Ukraine should be based on renewable
energy sources (RES). These associations are convinced that
by 2030, Ukraine could reach a 50% share of renewables in
its total electricity mix. This is important to ensure energy
security, upgrade Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and
compensate for losses from closing outdated coal-fired
power plants (OGARENKO; ALIYEVA, 2017). It is also
worth noting that an important event occurred in the
Ukrainian energy sector this year: Ukraine became a member
of the European Network for Transmission of Electricity for
Europe (ENTSO-E). This association brings together 42
network managers from 35 European countries.
In 2017, Ukraine signed an agreement to synchronize its
power system with the European one, which envisages the
start of synchronization of the Ukrainian system with the
European one in 2023. However, events have changed this
schedule, making it more urgent than a year earlier. The cost
of integration is estimated at UAH 11 billion, but the annual
economic effect of synchronization could reach UAH 40
billion. Interestingly, even before the invasion, 96% of
Ukraine's power systems were technically connected to the
occupying countries and Moldova, while only 4% were
synchronized with European countries (TYMOSHENKO et
al., 2023).
Among the benefits of interconnecting the Ukrainian
power system with the European one is a reduction in the
cost of energy production through more efficient use of
production capacities. In addition, the opportunities for
exporting Ukrainian and importing foreign electricity are
improving, as are the opportunities for attracting foreign
investors. One of the positive effects of this integration is the
development of renewable energy sources through special
programmers (TYMOSHENKO et al., 2023).
6. CONCLUSIONS
A shift to renewable energy sources (RES) could
eliminate the possibility of political or military pressure from
one country on another over energy sources. Many past
conflicts have involved battles over energy resources such as
oil, gas, or coal. For example, Ukraine is a victim of constant
energy pressure and blackmail from Russia, which affects the
supply of heat and electricity to Ukrainian consumers. Using
renewables can eliminate this political influence because
these energy sources are available to everyone, and there is
no need for war. It is important to note that renewables can
ensure society's safety and health. For example, events such
as the Chornobyl disaster and the occupation of the
Zaporizhzhia NPP demonstrate the risks of nuclear energy
and its potential for misuse in personal interests. On the
other hand, wind energy is safe and does not threaten life and
health. Increasing nuclear energy in Ukraine's recovery plan
could increase the country's vulnerability to such “nuclear
terrorism” and maintain its dependence on nuclear fuel
imports. However, operations in this area require attention
and caution, especially about public safety.
It is worth emphasizing that renewable energy sources,
such as wind power, can make societies independent in many
areas, including electricity and decarbonization of the
economy. These technologies can be key to helping countries
become independent of oil imports and reduce their
corresponding dependence.
The development of renewable energy sources brings
obvious economic and social benefits. However, sustainable
development of this sector requires appropriate government
support and favorable business conditions. One of the main
tasks of the Ukrainian government is to protect investors in
renewable energy and create the necessary conditions for
their further activities.
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Authors contribution: A. C. - conceptualization, methodology,
writing (original draft); O. B. - methodology, investigation or data
collection, writing (original draft); V. P. - statistical analysis,
investigation or data collection, writing (review and editing); L. S. -
validation, writing (review and editing); S. D. - administration or
supervision, validation. All authors read and agreed to the published
version of the manuscript.
Acknowledgments: Not applicable.
Financing: Not applicable.
Review by institutional committee: Not applicable.
Ethics Committee: Not applicable.
Data availability: Study data can be obtained by e-mail from the
corresponding author or the second author upon request.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
