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THE PIVOT TO ASIA POLICY AND CHINA’S RISE: COMPETITION
BETWEEN US AND CHINA IN ASIA PACIFIC
Dr. Adnan Nawaz*1, Israr Rasool2, Shaher bano3
*1Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Government College University, Faisalabad,
2Research Scholar, 3Research Scholar
*1adnannawaz@gcuf.edu.pk, 2israrrasoolgcuf.edu.pk@gmail.com, 3shaherbanokazmi5@gmail.com
Corresponding Author: *
Received: 05 November, 2023 Revised: 24 November, 2023 Accepted: 30 November, 2023 Published: 11 December, 2023
ABSTRACT
This research report provides an overview of the competition and challenges arising from the
United States' pivot to Asia policy and China's rise in the Asia-Pacific region. The strategic shift
of the United States towards Asia and China's remarkable ascent as a global power have
transformed the geopolitical landscape. This qualitative study highlights the economic,
geopolitical, and ideological dimensions of their competition, as well as the dilemmas faced by
smaller states in navigating this complex environment. Effective diplomacy, multilateral
cooperation, and nuanced approaches are crucial in addressing the evolving dynamics and
potential risks in the Asia-Pacific.
Keywords: Asia, China, US, Asia Pacific
INTRODUCTION
Since last decade, the Asia-Pacific region has
witnessed drastic changes, shaped by China’s
peaceful rise in the region and the United States'
strategic shift towards Asia-Pacific, known as the
Pivot to Asia. China's drastic military modernization
and economic growth have boosted the state’s
influence in the region significantly, challenging the
existing political regional order and the United States
dominance. Whereas, The US policy aims to
rebalance United States’ losing edge in the region
and foreign policy priorities towards the Asia-Pacific
from Middle-East, recognizing the region's growing
economic and strategic importance.
Meanwhile, the U.S.-China relationship has
progressively worsened in recent decade, with
disputes over economic trade, technological
advancements, and human rights issues. The two
nations are the world's largest economies and are
heavily involved in trade, investment, and cultural
exchange. One major challenge towards the China
and US relationship is the current trade war between
the two great powers. The U.S. imposed levies on
Chinese goods, in response China imposed its own
taxes on U.S. goods. This trade war is having a major
impact on both economies, which further stressed the
relations.
U.S. has been varying of China's vast military power
and its assertiveness in Asia-Pacific. China’s military
presence in the disputed islands of South China Sea
by building bases for surveillance, resulting in raised
concerns among other countries in the region. In
response, U.S. has also increased its military
presence in the region, leading to tensions between
the two countries.
China’s strategy towards the region has manifested
in its defensive approach, the assertiveness through
economic and diplomatic means has become a norm
for China which can be highlighted by China’s
cooperative stance in the most recent ASEAN
meetings. The U.S. allied countries has seen it as a
threat towards the freedom in the region and have
countered it by making partnerships and alliances
like AUKUS and QUAD with U.S. in hopes to halt
China’s diplomatic expansion.
Since 2020, the Asia-Pacific region witnessed
unforeseen developments that have further
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illuminated the complex dynamics of the region. The
COVID-19 pandemic factor has also impacted public
health and economies affecting the geopolitical and
strategic landscape of the region (ESCAP, 2021).
Post-COVID-19, some major events can be seen in
the region as China’s plays the Long game toward
the achievement of its intended goals.
In this context, the Pivot to Asia and China's rise have
become a focal point for policymakers and scholars
to analyse in the Post-COVID-19 era. Obama’s
initiated Pivot to Asia policy aims to deepen the U.S.
involvement with the region while promoting
economic and diplomatic ties with Potential and
existing Allies. The policy also serves the purpose of
addressing the challenges posed by China's rise all
the while containing its growing influence (Zafar,
2022). The progressive Rise of China has raised
some major questions about China’s strategic
objectives, its role in the region, and its impact on the
existing regional and global order.
Understanding the complexities of the U.S.-China’s
Tit-for-tat policies towards the region is crucial for
policymakers and scholars to develop a better
understanding of the contemporary dynamics of the
South East Asia and Asia-Pacific. Ultimately, the
future will depend on how the U.S.-China
relationship evolves in the coming years. This
Research is aimed at identifying the main factors
behind China’s rise towards a new order and the U.S.
response policies towards the implications resulting
from the China’s assertive aggression in the Asia
Pacific.
Breaking “Pivot to Asia” Policy:
The policy was announced by the Obama
administration in his first tenure in 2011,
highlighting the need for the U.S. to vigorously
engage and maintain its leadership role in the rapidly
evolving Asia-Pacific (Southgate, 2017). It
recognized the rise of China and the need to counter
its influence, the economic opportunities, and the
security challenges posed by North Korea and
territorial disputes as key factors driving the need for
a renewed focus on Asia.
Background and formation of the policy:
“Underlying the ‘pivot’ is a conviction that the center
of gravity for US foreign policy, national security,
and economic interests is being realigned and
shifting towards Asia”. It further suggests that the
“US strategy and priorities need to be adjusted
accordingly” keeping in view the divergent dynamics
of 21st century. This clearly wasn’t an instant change
in priorities by President Obama; in fact, the “pivot”
to Asia was the fulfilment of prior policies made by
the previous administrations (Logan, 2013).
Primarily, in International Relations, the core
objective of every state is the protection of its
national interests, while maintaining a stable balance
of power utilizing different approaches to contain
and stop the potential rise of any emerging state.
Therefore, by this logic the U.S. policy intended for
Asia-Pacific is no exception.
In the world of economics and trade, U.S. wishes
smooth flow of trade through its trade routes by
ensuring Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC)
threatened by the Chinese growing influence in Asia-
Pacific. U.S. considers it as a major factor in
maintaining its position against China. It is
commonly known fact that, “Whoever controls the
Straits of Malacca and the Indian Ocean could
threaten China’s oil supply route” – this in reality
highlights the importance of this area. Controlling
this region by military means would significantly
decide the relative position of U.S./China in the next
decade (Bush, Madan, Solís, Stromseth, & Yeo,
2022). The U.S. will be expanding its current options
in order to maintain a new set of priorities towards
China, termed as “Engaged-Containment Policy”
with intentions to utilize both the “soft and hard”
power to deal with the ongoing confrontation.
Key Components of the “Pivot to Asia” Policy:
The main components of the policy were (Bush et al.,
2022; Singh, 2023):
Strategic Shift from Middle East to Asia-Pacific
This element highlights a shift in the United States'
strategic priorities starting the Middle East to the
Asia-Pacific area. It intends to prioritise U.S.
interests and resources in accordance with the
growing relevance of the Asia-Pacific area in world
affairs.
China’s rising influence and containment of
Chinese Clout
This component tackles the necessity to manage and
contain Chinese strength in light of the country's
expanding economic and military clout. It includes
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tactics to balance China's sway and head off any
dangers to American interests or regional stability.
Military Rebalancing and U.S. Military
enhancement in Asia-Pacific
The significance of military resources and presence
in the Asia-Pacific area is highlighted by this
component. To ensure a strong U.S. military
presence and the capacity to effectively address
regional security problems, it requires reallocating
budgets, deploying assets, and strengthening military
capabilities.
Economic Engagement with Asia-Pacific
Economic cooperation (APEC) & Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP)
Economic participation is essential to the policy.
Regional integration, trade liberalisation, and
economic collaboration are advanced through these
partnership. The policy seeks to strengthen American
economic interests in the Asia-Pacific region through
utilising these venues.
Diplomatic Engagement via East Asia Summit &
Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Maintaining relationships and affecting regional
dynamics need active diplomacy. The policy places
a strong emphasis on participation in the East Asia
Summit and active interaction with ASEAN. These
venues give the United States the chance to promote
conversation, develop alliances, and diplomatically
deal with regional issues.
Freedom of navigation & Maritime Security
It’s a crucial element given the importance of
maritime routes in the Asia-Pacific area. The policy's
main objectives are to protect vital sea lanes, stop
territorial disputes from turning into wars, and
advance the rule of law in maritime affairs.
Multilateral Cooperation and Maintenance of
U.S. Influence via Quadrilateral Security
Dialogue (QUAD), Five Power Defence
Arrangements (FPDA), U.S.-India Strategic
Partnership, G7 and G20
The United States participates in multilateral
cooperation through a number of frameworks in
order to preserve its influence in the Asia-Pacific
area. This includes taking an active part in the G7 and
G20 conferences, the Five Power Defence
Arrangements (FPDA), the Quadrilateral Security
Dialogue (QUAD), and the U.S.-India Strategic
Partnership. These multilateral forums enable the
United States to engage with important allies,
coordinate policy, and jointly solve regional and
international concerns.
Aims and Objectives of the “Pivot to Asia” policy
Under the “pivot to Asia” strategy President Obama
highlighted five essential pillars, which will
eluminate the strategic interests of the U.S. towards
Asia-Pacific (Southgate, 2017).
The provision of security in Indo-Pacific region.
Towards this end, U.S. will establish strong military
presence in the region and have to align closely with
the South-East Asian countries, especially Japan,
Taiwan and Republic of South Korea, and will
increase resources dedicated to military to deter any
potential threat in the Indo-Pacific region.
U.S. will re-engage with regional organizations
especially ASEAN.
To utilize the win-win strategy by ensuring the U.S.-
Asia prosperity via free trade and joint economic
endeavours like APEC and TPP.
The U.S. will establish collaborative relationship
with Beijing to dissimate misunderstandings.
The U.S. will continue efforts for the preservation
and provision of basic human rights in the region.
Obama’s Era and “Pivot to Asia” Policy
Obama's administration made a number of
announcements in the fall of 2011 suggesting that the
US would be stepping up and increasing its already
considerable involvement in the Asia-Pacific,
particularly in the southern half of the area. The main
objective of the change is to put greater effort into
influencing the formation of norms and rules in the
Asia-Pacific, especially as China becomes a more
significant regional force.
Additionally, the US strengthened its economic links
with the Asia-Pacific area. One type of the United
States' economic interactions was successfully
negotiated and put into place by the United States,
notably the Trans Pacific Partnership. By entering
the Asia-Pacific regional cooperation, the United
States hoped to improve economic ties, which in turn
affects security ties. The United
States safeguarded these economic activities due to
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its accelerated export and import activities. By
actively promoting navigation to sustain trade routes
and other economic interests within the Asia-Pacific
region, the United States demonstrates this in the area
of security. The US likewise has an air-sea battle
doctrine that emphasises air and sea power in the
area. The Obama administration
undertook numerous military and military aid
programmes for nations in the Asia-Pacific area,
including Singapore and Australia, in relation to the
expansion of military and security cooperation (PP &
Wicaksana, 2022).
authorised new military and naval deployments to
Singapore and Australia, as well as new partnership
projects with the Philippines;
issued a new defence blueprint that confirmed the
rebalance to Asia and provided justification for it
while maintaining a focus on the Middle East;
became part of the East Asia Summit (EAS), a
leading international organisation in the region; and
achieved progress in the TPP and FTA talks
involving nine nations.
Four significant events appear to have led to the
Administration's increased focus on the Asia-Pacific
region:
the region of the Asia-Pacific, notably China, which
was becoming economically more significant for the
future of the American economy;
China's expanding military might and assertiveness
in staking claims to disputed maritime areas
that would have a drastic impact on freedom of
navigation and the US's capacity to project force in
the area.
Budget cuts by the U.S. federal government,
especially in the defence sector, raised concerns in
Asia that the country's commitment to the area may
be waning.
Indo-Pacific Strategy under Trump
Administration: Trump’s Unilateralism
President Trump, during his election campaigns
mocked President Obama’s approach of
“Rebalancing to Asia” especially the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) initiative. After assuming office,
Trump signed a presidential order regarding
departure of the Washington out of “Trans Pacific
Partnership” (TPP). Approximately a year later, the
first National Security Strategy Report stated that
“We welcome India’s emergence as a leading global
power and stronger strategic and defence partner. We
will seek to increase quadrilateral cooperation with
Japan, Australia, and India.” Afterwards, The U.S.
strategy of Indo-Pacific region has established an
updated parameter for upcoming U.S. tactics and
strategies in Indo Pacific. Moreover, Under Trump
administration, the mishandling of relations b/w U.S.
and China generated fears throughout the Indo-
Pacific (Asif et al., 2019).
Overall, the results of Trump's trip to Asia seemed to
be a triumph for American diplomatic efforts in
2017. Important Asian leaders who had previously
met Trump amicably in the United States were
familiar with him and listened to his every word as
they sought to deepen their relationship. All along,
it was clear that the US President was worried about
the North Korean menace, US trade imbalances, and
other economic issues. While rejecting international
economic deals, Trump actively participated in the
APEC and US-ASEAN summits. A clear top-level
US commitment to ongoing active participation in
regional matters was expressed by the President's
attention throughout his very lengthy and difficult
itinerary in the area. Few issues arose during the trip
that administration sceptics in the US or
internationally might criticise.
Pivot to Asia and Joe Biden’s Regime
The Biden’s approach towards China has been more
a continuation than a change to Trump’s approach.
However, the situation is dissimilar in the case of
alliances, as Biden administration bestows more
commitment to its allies, such as Japan or the
Republic of South Korea. Multilateral dimensions
have witnessed changes, although limited. Keeping
in mind the power politics of the Asia-Pacific region
allowing favorable opportunity for the Washington,
President Obama concentrated more on other
elements of power, including middle powers such as
Australia, Republic of Pakistan, Japan, South Korea,
Thailand, and Indonesia. Out of these, Pakistan alone
has been relocating its loyalty from the U.S. towards
the Republic of China in the 21st century. The Pivot
to Asia has become obscured during the Trump era,
as on one hand, he re-initiated QUAD (Quadrilateral
Security Dialog). On the other hand, he introduced a
transactional tactic to alliance relations, triggering
skepticism among Washington’s allies. Meanwhile,
Joe Biden is being viewed as more focused on
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building friendly relations with regional allies
(Grabowski, 2021).
The idea of continuity rather than change,
specifically in U.S. policy towards Beijing, has been
rampant, underlining that U.S.-China competition is
the major decisive factor in bilateral relations.
Meanwhile, bilateral relations with Southeast Asian
states should also be elevated to a higher level, given
collaboration within QUAD’s infrastructure might
only be a tool for containment of China. In 2021, we
witnessed a new coalition called AUKUS (Australia,
the United Kingdom, the United States) presenting a
challenge to Beijing and EU (the European Union)
(Biden, 2021).
To conclude, we may deduce that Joe Biden’s policy
towards Indo-Pacific may be traced some-where in
between Obama’s and Trump’s policies, although
such assumptions seems surprising. Nonetheless, it is
reasonable keeping in mind the U.S. interests, as well
as the decisions of Biden’s administration
(Grabowski, 2021).
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and QUAD-
Plus
QUAD is an alliance of India, Australia, Japan and
the U.S. which was suggested by Japan’s PM Shinzo
Abe in 2007. The focal objective was to formulate a
group that will monitor control over the straints
stretched across Indo-Pacific region. But this idea
was rejected due to a protest in Beijing, implying that
it was targeted towards the containment of China. In
2017, the officials of QUAD group met in a meeting
of the ASEAN and East Asia Summit in Manila
unofficially to revive QUAD which was side-lined in
2007. Suggestions were proposed to expand the
members of QUAD by including the ASEAN States
which is known as “Quad-Plus” mechanism. But it
was concluded that Southeast-Asian states have no
interest for Quad, if this is just another step in the
rivalry of the great powers. The reason is more
clarified from the fact that Southeast-Asian region is
a centre of attraction in the 21st century because of
China’s initiated “Belt and Road Initiative 2013”
(BRI) (Saha, 2018). To conclude, ASEAN isn’t
likely pick sides.
China’s growing influence has introduced many new
factors for Quad to tackle. The increasing Chinese
hold via the Belt and Road Initiative has presented
itself as a critical issue among the QUAD members.
Few observer states have debated that the Beijing’s
initiated BRI, under its maritime project, has an
overwhelming potential to throw the current balance
of power in the Indo-Pacific region (Deb & Wilson,
2021).
The direct meeting held between the QUAD leaders
in Washington, DC, in September 2021 one day prior
the United Nations General Assembly is of great
importance. This meeting emphasises that the Quad
is finally picking up its pace by becoming active and
moving towards all members harmonising their
actions for the supposed betterment of the Indo-
Pacific region. Many academics believe that this
increased international interaction is an essential step
for the region's growth while maintaining its freedom
and openness (Deb & Wilson, 2021).
The Quad is even now quite far from a formal
alliance and is often labelled as a group of like-
minded nations. However, it is a given fact that
security issues shape a major portion of its objectives
and goals. Moreover, Observer states might also hold
Beijing accountable for encouraging more states to
think about joining this programme by increasing its
assertiveness and aggression. Some have predicted
that the Quad will someday transform into a treaty
akin to NATO, but such predictions are premature
and rash.
China’s Rise in Asia Pacific
China's rise in the Asia-Pacific region has been a
significant development with far-reaching
implications. Its rise has been fuelled by factors such
as its large population, rapid industrialization, and
export-oriented economic policies. China's economic
expansion has enabled it to enhance its regional
influence, expand trade relationships, and invest in
infrastructure projects through initiatives like the
Belt and Road Initiative. Additionally, China's
military modernization has allowed it to strengthen
its defence capabilities, leading to concerns among
some regional actors regarding its intentions and
impact on the regional balance of power. As a major
player in the Asia-Pacific, China's rise has shaped the
geopolitical dynamics of the region and prompted
recalibrations in the strategies of other countries in
response to its growing influence.
In a world that has been significantly affected by
globalisation and a global political system
underpinned by a treaty-based system, China is
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announcing itself as a superpower. Huge trade and
investment movements among the major economies
of the globe are characteristics of modern
globalisation, with China acting as the global
economy's transitional manufacturing hub despite its
continued reliance on imported resources. The
dominant behaviour patterns of the world's
superpowers, collected in treaties and constantly
examined by institutions, best describe the world
political order. Beijing is actively involved in a race
for status and power in the international order, just as
it is in a competition for armaments in the Western
Pacific (Jones & Yeo, 2022).
“As China has grown from a weak state to a strong
one, it is starting to exploit the stronger powers’
ability to pick and choose when and where to comply
with core treaty provisions, as well as to shape the
next generation of consequential treaties.”
China’s approaches and Policies
China has utilized numerous tactics, which have
progressed over time. Beijing has exercised the
following Tactics, or the “six Ps” (Jones & Yeo,
2022).
Profiting gaining advantage of the World order to
advance national ambitions. This roughly depicts
China’s strategy of relations with international trade
and financial institutions. Penetrating is fumbling
into an organization to shape its policy in order to
gain advantages. This illustrates China's strategy to
cooperating with the UN throughout the past ten
years. Piggybacking is developing on emerging
powers’ bold actions and discontent with the global
order (especially those of Russia, India, Brazil, and
others). Perverting is utilizing the recognized and
official structure of a policy to advance Chinese
interests but in a way that is profoundly detrimental.
Undoubtedly, this personifies China's recent attitude
to joining the WTO, but it may also best describe
China's actions towards freedom of navigation.
Preventing is utilizing its newly acquired economic
sway and its capacities to thwart the advent of
limiting arrangements in new dimensions. Here, it
repeatedly finds itself escorted by the Washington,
which has frequently been unenthusiastic to accept
international law in contemporary issue areas.
Proposing in some realms, attempting to play the role
of a leader by performing the functions of an ordering
power.
China’s Strategic Objectives in the Indo-Pacific
Region:
Economic, geopolitical, and security factors are just
a few of the many ways that one might see China's
diverse strategic goals in the Indo-Pacific area. China
intends to achieve the following main goals:
Economic Expansion: China seeks to get access to
the Indo-Pacific region's markets, resources, and
investment opportunities. This include boosting
commerce, encouraging infrastructure improvement
through programmes like the Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI), and forming business alliances with
neighbouring nations. China's economic goals also
include strengthening its position as a regional
economic powerhouse and expanding its influence
over global supply networks (Ho, 2020).
Geopolitical Influence: China wants to increase its
geopolitical clout and become a significant
participant in the Indo-Pacific area. This entails using
diplomatic, economic, and military tools to deepen
its ties with neighbouring nations while reducing the
influence of other regional powers like the United
States and Japan. China wants to reshape regional
institutions, regulations, and norms in a way that
serves its own interests.
Maritime Expansion and Security: China views its
maritime and territorial claims in the South China
Sea to be vital to its core national interests. It tries to
establish and strengthen authority over contested
areas and maritime resources in the area. China has
participated in artificial island construction, the
deployment of military hardware, and the assertion
of its presence through marine patrols. Additionally,
it aims to reduce the influence of foreign countries,
especially the United States, in the marine domain
(Ho, 2020) (Bush et al., 2022).
Regional Stability: In line with its economic and
geopolitical goals, China emphasises the value of
preserving peace and stability in the region. It tries to
stop issues or dangers from appearing that might
affect its trade, trading routes, or regional influence.
Some regional parties, however, are concerned about
China's actions because they see them as forceful or
destabilising, particularly in relation to territorial
conflicts and its military buildup.
Controlling Taiwan: China has had a long-standing
goal of uniting Taiwan with the mainland. Beijing
regards Taiwan as a part of its territory and has not
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ruled out using force to bring the two countries back
together if diplomatic efforts are unsuccessful.
China's policy to exert pressure and influence over
the island and discourage other nations from
recognising or supporting Taiwan's independence
includes measures to isolate Taiwan diplomatically,
economically, and politically (Ho, 2020).
Energy Security: China wants to secure enough
energy supplies to maintain its economic expansion.
The South China Sea and the Indian Ocean both
contain significant natural gas and oil deposits,
which are located in the Indo-Pacific area. China
engages in political and commercial relations with
nations in the region in an effort to guarantee access
to these resources.
Military Modernization and Power Projection: China
aims to create a powerful military force that is both
modern and capable of projecting influence outside
of its immediate boundaries. China wants to establish
a strong naval presence in the Indo-Pacific, improve
its power projection capacities, and develop assets
including aircraft carriers, cutting-edge submarines,
and long-range missiles. This goal is linked to
upholding its territorial claims, securing
communication sea lanes, and dissuading possible
foes (Bush et al., 2022).
Influence over Regional Institutions: China wants to
strengthen its position within current regional
institutions or create new ones that serve its interests.
In order to do this, one must interact with groups like
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN), support alternative regional economic
initiatives, and exert influence over regional forums
and international institutions in order to affect norms,
regulations, and decision-making procedures.
Public Diplomacy and Soft Power: Through cultural
exchanges, educational initiatives, media campaigns,
and economic diplomacy, China aims to strengthen
its soft power and promote its reputation abroad. To
build goodwill and positive attitudes in the Indo-
Pacific region and to offset complaints or worries
voiced by other nations, China actively promotes its
cultural legacy, language, and economic success
stories.
Counterbalancing the United States: China sees the
Indo-Pacific region as a battleground where it faces
off against the United States for influence and
dominance. China wants to restrict American
influence in the region, undermine its relationships
and alliances, and foster an environment that is more
conducive to its own interests as part of its strategic
goals. This include fostering business relationships
with nations that have historically supported the
United States, using diplomacy to lessen American
influence, and thwarting American military
operations in the area (Ho, 2020).
CONCLUSION
The Graham Allison notion of the Thucydides Trap
serves as a shared framework for understanding the
US-China power conflict in the larger Asia-Pacific
area. This summarised account of intricate regional
dynamics is not without its limitations, though. The
policymakers in Washington and Beijing would
believe that they are tangled up in an impossible
situation where only retreat can prevent an outbreak
of warfare and that war is subsequently unavoidable
if the region were to be explained primarily in terms
of security dynamics with the United States and
China as major competitors to one another. The
deepening of regional security dynamics is further
facilitated by this strategy of containment, in which
one state seeks ways to undermine the capacities of
the others in the region.
Small nations that are caught up in the conflict must
thus consider joining one of the two sides, which
helps to support the idea of a new Cold War. The
security of the area might be dangerously affected by
this error in judgement. Therefore, it is crucial to
understand the shifting power dynamics in the area
from a new angle. States are now forced to search for
alternatives and a middle ground that would
represent order and stability within the Asia-Pacific
region due to the complexity and interconnection of
today's globalised globe (Zafar, 2022).
Professor Graham Allison of Harvard first used the
term "Thocydides Trap" in 2012. Thucydides'
explanation of the idea in his account of the
Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta
served as the inspiration for both the name and the
guiding principle of the idea. Thucydides said that
the conflict between the two sides was unavoidable
because of Athens' rising dominance, which had
caused terror in Sparta. Allison approaches the US-
China power struggle from a similar perspective,
believing that the development of Chinese
capabilities that represent a danger to the status quo
upheld by the US would result in conflict (Zafar,
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2022).
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