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Sea level rise impacts on coastal access
Abstract
Climate change and associated sea level rise (SLR) will have substantial impacts on coastlines worldwide, threatening beaches, infrastructure, economies, and communities. In California, communities and individuals rely on the state’s public coastal access to physically reach and use the beaches and nearshore waters. Such use constitutes a key component of the state’s ocean-dependent coastal tourism and recreation sector,
and contributes significantly to state and local economies, coastal culture, and individual’s coastal attachment. This study
investigates the impacts of SLR on coastal access, first by using geospatial tools to develop a higher resolution database of the location and elevation of coastal access sites (opportunities,
amenities, and facilities, including parking) at various coastal access sites statewide. Then, using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) SLR run-up model, we project the loss of coastal access opportunities due to SLR. We find that impacts to coastal access increase incrementally with SLR and vary widely by access feature type and location, with larger impacts accruing more rapidly in the southern half of the state. We project that access to California’s shoreline will drown at the rate of approximately 100 access opportunities per 1 foot of SLR. Losses of coastal access will impact individual communities and groups differently and are sensitive to the effects of different strategies designed to manage coastlines in the face of rising sea levels.
... Tourism provides a net economic gain for many nations around the world. Relatedly, even modest assessments provide geospatial data that pinpoints dozens of famous surfer beaches that the sea will overcome before the turn of the century (Patsch & Reineman, 2024). Hauer et al. (2019) estimate world coastal populations to exceed 1 billion people before the turn of the century. ...
On February 14, 2023, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres spoke to a global audience, stating, "The world will witness a mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale." Purpose: This paper proposes a global minimum wage formula tied to local rent prices as a proactive measure to strategically incentivize populations to migrate away from coastal areas threatened by climate change. Methodology: The author employs a theoretical approach, utilizing economic principles and financial literacy practices to develop a scaffolded, multi-year plan for implementing a global minimum wage formula. As this is a theoretical paper, there are no experiments or empirical results to evaluate. Results: The proposed global minimum wage formula, based on a 'Recent and Relevant Rent Price Index' (3RPI), is designed to anchor wages to a rent-price index, allowing laborers to afford housing on 30% of their wages. This formula is expected to incentivize migration inland, spur entrepreneurism, and increase local tax bases. Theoretical contribution: This paper contributes to climate change adaptation by proposing an economic solution to manage the anticipated mass migration due to rising sea levels and coastal erosion. It highlights the potential of market-driven measures to mitigate the economic shocks associated with climate change-induced migration. Practical implications: Implementing the proposed global minimum wage formula could help governments proactively manage climate change-induced migration's economic and social impacts. It may also contribute to funding the annual $2.4 trillion gap for addressing climate change, as described by the United Nations, by temporarily increasing discretionary funds and tax bases. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities; SDG 13: Climate Action; SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities; SDG 1: No Poverty
... Code § §36600-36900. quality degradation (see, e.g., Given et al. 2006) and coastal access disruption (Reineman and Ardoin 2017;Patsch and Reineman 2024). Yet, the values of surf breaks in California, where surfing is the official state sport (Calif. ...
Surf breaks are vital cultural resources on coastlines worldwide, but are vulnerable to myriad threats, including climate change and coastal development; as such, efforts to protect them have proliferated. Hitherto, spatial protections (e.g., marine protected areas; MPAs) have been pursued for surf breaks as single, individual reserves. This situation is comparable to the early days of biodiversity MPAs, which eventually progressed to networked reserve design, initially culminating in California’s 124 net- worked MPAs. Here, we apply the analogy of networked biodiversity reserve design to networked reserves for surf break protection. We examine the proposition that the effectiveness of surfing resource conservation can be improved by a “networked” approach. We conclude that specific characteristics of surf breaks, including their size, type, carrying capacity, quality, value, accessibility, spacing, vulnerability, and cultural and historic significance could all be considered and balanced to yield more effective, equitable conservation outcomes.
Lester, C.; Griggs, G.; Patsch, K., and Anderson, R., 0000. Shoreline retreat in California: Taking a step back. Journal of Coastal Research, 00(0), 000-000. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Adapting to long-term sea-level rise has emerged as perhaps the most significant coastal management challenge of the 21st century. But this challenge has become fraught with controversy in California, especially around the idea of managed retreat. This article reframes the current adversarial and highly politicized dichotomous controversy about managed retreat with an overview of California's actual experience managing coastal shoreline hazards over the last half-century. The review shows that managed retreat in California is more than an either-or fight about private beachfront residential property. The article reviews a range of cases in which development or development potential has been moved back from the shoreline. The cases stand in contrast to the overly simplified debate about managed retreat and show that retreat has been happening on California's coast for decades. The discussion identifies the complexity and multiple dimensions of shoreline adaptation over long periods and concludes with some observations in hopes of shedding light on and opening more reasonable discussion of pathways to shoreline retreat and resilient communities. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Sea-level rise, coastal adaptation, managed retreat, California coastal management.
As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.
Patsch, K.; King, P.; Reineman, D.R.; Jenkins, S.; Steele, C.; Gaston, E., and Anderson, S., 0000. Beach sustainability assessment: The development and utility of an interdisciplinary approach to sandy beach monitoring. Journal of Coastal Research, 00(0), 000-000. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Sandy beaches are valued for various ecosystem services but are increasingly imperiled by anthropogenic stressors. Sea-level rise (SLR), reductions to sand supply, hardening the position of the coastline, and the prevalence of human development along California's coast combine to reduce the fundamental dynamism critical to the resilience of California's beaches. If California continues with business as usual, many of its beaches will erode and eventually disappear. Coastal jurisdictions in California are planning for SLR. However, these coastal managers lack a standardized regional assessment tool that compiles information on the current and likely future condition of sandy beaches. Without such a tool, these managers have limited ability to analyze the integrated impacts of historic decisions or future alternative management scenarios upon beach morphology, ecological functioning, economics, and social utility. This paper presents a study of the Beach Sustainability Assessment (BSA) decision support tool applied to 17 beaches spanning Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties. In addition to scoring and grading geomorphological, ecological functioning, and social utility components, the BSA provides a single, overall grade for each beach. To demonstrate the utility of the BSA, a scenario with 1 m of SLR and a 100-year storm was simulated to assess the changes to the overall grade and component grades. The BSA offers a cost-effective, standardized protocol to monitor the condition of California's sandy beach ecosystems. The metrics support spatial and temporal comparisons on a regional scale, giving coastal managers and stakeholders the ability to assess real trade-offs among management solutions. Current BSA indices indicate that beaches in the Southern California Bight study area are already struggling, with most urban beaches receiving Cs and Ds for ecological functioning. The SLR stressor test indicates that ecological functioning and social utility will continue to decline with increasing sea levels.
Beaches form a significant component of the economy, history, and culture of southern California. Yet both the construction of dams and debris basins in coastal watersheds and the armoring of eroding coastal cliffs and bluffs have reduced sand supply. Ultimately, most of this beach sand is permanently lost to the submarine canyons that intercept littoral drift moving along this intensively used shoreline. Each decade the volume of lost sand is enough to build a beach 100 feet wide, 10 feet deep and 20 miles long, or a continuous beach extending from Newport Bay to San Clemente. Sea-level rise will negatively impact the beaches of southern California further, specifically those with back beach barriers such as seawalls, revetments, homes, businesses, highways, or railroads.
Over 75% of the beaches in southern California are retained by structures, whether natural or artificial, and groin fields built decades ago have been important for local beach growth and stabilization efforts. While groins have been generally discouraged in recent decades in California, and there are important engineering and environmental considerations involved prior to any groin construction, the potential benefits are quite large for the intensively used beaches and growing population of southern California, particularly in light of predicted sea-level rise and public beach loss. All things considered, in many areas groins or groin fields may well meet the objectives of the California Coastal Act, which governs coastal land-use decisions. There are a number of shoreline areas in southern California where sand is in short supply, beaches are narrow, beach usage is high, and where sand retention structures could be used to widen or stabilize local beaches before sand is funneled offshore by submarine canyons intercepting littoral drift. Stabilizing and widening the beaches would add valuable recreational area, support beach ecology, provide a buffer for back beach infrastructure or development, and slow the impacts of a rising sea level.
As sea level continues to rise at an accelerated rate, California’s intensive coastal development and infrastructure is coming under an increasing threat. Whether lowelevation shoreline areas that are subject to flooding at extreme tides and times of storm wave run-up, or construction on eroding bluffs or cliffs, the risks will continue to increase from extreme events but, over the longer term, from continuing sea-level rise. Future sea-level rise values under different greenhouse gas scenarios have recently been projected and adopted by the state to be used in coastal land use planning and decision making. While beach nourishment can provide very short-term protection, and seawalls and revetments can provide somewhat longer-term protection, they both come with significant costs and also environmental impacts. The era of routine armor emplacement is coming to an end in California, and whether designated as relocation or managed retreat, now is the time to make the difficult decisions on how this will be accomplished and what the trigger points will be to initiate the response.
Coastal hazards involve the interaction or effects of natural coastal processes on shoreline development, infrastructure, and human activities. Future sea-level rise will affect California’s coastal development and infrastructure through both
flooding of low-lying areas and erosion of cliffs, bluffs, and dunes. The global rate of sea-level rise is increasing and many
low-lying developed shoreline areas are already experiencing flooding at extreme high tides, particularly during periods
of large storm waves. The combined effects of short-term extreme wave and tide events and the global rate of sea level
increase will present greater risks in the near future for coastal California. Protecting private development and public
infrastructure along shorelines has become a pressing issue for many coastal communities and the state, with a limited
number of management options, each with their own costs, benefits, and effects. These options include: do nothing, beach
nourishment, hard armoring structures, living or green shorelines, and managed retreat or relocation. Hard armoring
structures such as seawalls and revetments have been the typical historical response to coastal erosion, and in 1971, just
2.5% of California’s entire 1760-km shoreline was armored. By 2018, armor totals reached 13.9% of the entire state’s
coastline, a 5.5-fold increase over 47 years. None of the past or present efforts to protect shoreline development and
infrastructure from coastal storm damage and shoreline erosion will be effective over the long term with rising sea levels.
A growing awareness of the cumulative effects of armoring the shoreline has led the California Coastal Commission to
take an increasingly critical look at any new proposals for coastal armoring.
ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Coastal protection, seawalls, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, armoring.
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world’s 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state’s GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three-fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.
The California Coastal Act, passed in 1976, protects public coastal access
for all Californians. In the forty years since the Act’s passage, the state’s
population has nearly doubled with much of that growth occurring in the
coastal zone, where the beaches and public trust shoreline are an important
natural, open space resource. As such, they are beneficial to individual and
community well-being. Inequities in access to nature (and other beneficial
resources) are increasingly common. In this study, we evaluate and map the
proximity of different demographic groups to public shoreline access points on
California’s coast. In so doing, we identify disparities in the availability of
coastal access opportunities to different groups and show that, in general,
wealthy, white, senior residents of California live closer to coastal access than
other groups, while populous minority groups are significantly
underrepresented in terms of their proximity to coastal access points. We
discuss these findings in light of environmental change (e.g., sea level rise)
and responses to such changes (e.g., shoreline armoring), combined with social
factors (e.g., continued population growth) and policy responses to such
changes (e.g., climate adaptation planning). Our analyses set the stage for
further place-based study of disparities in public coastal access, including their
impacts on specific populations, as well as mechanisms intrinsic to the Coastal
Act for increasing coastal access equity in California through the Act’s next
forty years.
Global sea level is rising at an increasing rate and communities and cities around the planet are in the way. While we know the historic and recent rates of sea level rise, projections for the future are difficult due to political, economic, and social unknowns, as well as uncertainties in how the vast ice sheets and glaciers of Antarctica and Greenland will respond to continued warming of the atmosphere and the oceans. It is clear, however, that the sea level will continue to rise for centuries due to the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere as well as those we continue to produce. A rising ocean leads to a retreating coastline, whether gradual inundation of low-lying shoreline areas or increased erosion of cliffs, bluffs, and dunes. Coastal armoring and beach nourishment have been the historical approaches to address coastal or shoreline erosion,
but these are laden with economic and environmental costs, often short-lived,
and have significant impacts on beaches; their approval by permitting agencies is also becoming more difficult, at least in California (Griggs and Patsch 2019) but also in a number of other states. Coastal communities and cities are already experiencing the impacts of rising seas and more will experience these impacts in the decades ahead. Many cities in California are beginning to discuss, consider, and plan for how they will adapt to higher sea levels, but not without controversy, especially concerning managed retreat. However, over the long run, they all will respond through relocation or retreat of some sort, whether managed or unmanaged. Sea level rise will not stop at 2050 or 2100. Effective adaptation will require a collaborative process involving many stakeholders, including coastal home and business owners, local governments,
and state permitting agencies in order to develop and implement policies, plans, and pathways for deliberate adaptation to the inevitable future. For many reasons, this is a complex problem with no easy or inexpensive solutions, but the sooner the science is understood and all parties are engaged, the sooner plans can be developed with clear trigger points for adaptive action, ultimately relocation or retreat.
Surfing, a dominant recreational activity in many coastal areas, is a primary driver of local and international tourism. Surf-spots, nearshore oceanic locations where waves break and surfing occurs, are essential community resources. Yet, many surf-spots are at risk of degradation from climate change and other factors. Knowing whether and why surfers consider surf-spots as meaningful places can inform sustainable management of these resources, benefitting the environment and users alike. This study examines place attachment and disruption in relation to surf-spots through an online survey of 1055 surfers in California, where surfing is an important recreational and touristic industry. Our findings suggest that surfers exhibit high fidelity to specific surf-spots and develop deep attachments to those spots, with the strength of the attachment varying depending on the type of surf-spot. Some respondents consider surf-spots to be “part of their family”; few respondents describe no attachments. We conclude that, despite being dynamic oceanic locations, surf-spots are meaningful places for surfers. This importance, combined with the value of surf-spots as resources driving coastal tourism and recreation, warrants systematic consideration of surf-spots as natural resources by managers, and suggests that user–place attachment should be better understood at surf-spots and other tourism sites.
Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.
This article offers a historically informed answer to the question why are Black Americans less likely to know how to swim than Whites. It contends that past discrimination in the provision of and access to swimming pools is largely responsible for this contemporary disparity. There were two times when swimming surged in popularity-at public swimming pools during the 1920s and 1930s and at suburban swim clubs during the 1950s and 1960s. In both cases, large numbers of White Americans had easy access to these pools, whereas racial discrimination severely restricted Black Americans' access. As a result, swimming never became integral to Black Americans' recreation and sports culture and was not passed down from generation to generation as commonly occurred with Whites.
Despite the widespread use of nourishment in California, few studies estimate the welfare benefits of increased beach width. This paper relies on panel data funded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other agencies. Beach choices of respondents were combined with beach attribute data to reveal how changes in width affect choice and the economic value of beach visits. We use a random‐utility approach to show that the value of beach width varies for different types of beach uses: water contact, sand‐, and pavement‐based activities. We also find that the marginal value of beach width depends on initial beach width.
California is likely to experience increased coastal flooding and erosion caused by sea-level rise over the next century,
affecting the state’s population, infrastructure, and environment. As part of a set of studies on climate change impacts to
California, this paper analyzes the potential impacts from projected sea-level rise if no actions are taken to protect the
coast (a “no-adaptation scenario”), focusing on impacts to the state’s population and infrastructure. Heberger et al. (2009) also covered effects on wetlands, costs of coastal defenses, and social and environmental justice related to sea-level rise.
We analyzed the effect of a medium-high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC
2000) and included updated projections of sea-level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315(5810): 368, 2007). Under this scenario, sea levels rise by 1.4m by the year 2100, far exceeding historical observed water level increases.
By the end of this century, coastal flooding would, under this scenario, threaten regions that currently are home to approximately
480,000 people and $100 billion worth of property. Among those especially vulnerable are large numbers of low-income people
and communities of color. A wide range of critical infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities,
wastewater treatment plants, and power plants will also be at risk. Sea-level rise will inevitably change the character of
California’s coast; practices and policies should be put in place to mitigate the potentially costly and life-threatening
impacts of sea-level rise.
Managing the coastal squeeze: resilience planning for shoreline residential development
- C Lester
- M Matella
Lester, C., and M. Matella, 2016. "Managing the
coastal squeeze: resilience planning for shoreline residential development. " Stanford Environmental Law Journal 36, 23-60. https://law.
stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/
lester.pdf.
California Coastal Armoring Report: Managing Coastal Armoring and Climate Change Adaptation in the 21st Century
- M L Melius
- M R Caldwell
Melius, M.L., and M.R. Caldwell, 2015. California
Coastal Armoring Report: Managing Coastal
Armoring and Climate Change Adaptation in
the 21st Century. Stanford Law School Publication: https://law.stanford.edu/publications/
california-coastal-armoring-report-managing-coastal-armoring-and-climate-changeadaptation-in-the-21st-century/.