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2024 IEEE 1st Karachi Section Humanitarian Technology Conference (Khi-HTC)
979-8-3503-7303-5/24/$31.00 ©2024 IEEE
Exploring Relationships among Bitcoin’s Market
Price, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide
Emissions: A Machine Learning Approach
Aadil Jamali
IMCS
University of Sindh
Jamshoro, Pakistan
aadil.jamali@usindh.edu.pk
Najma Imtiaz Ali
IMCS
University of Sindh
Jamshoro, Pakistan
najma.channa@usindh.edu.pk
Imtiaz Ali Brohi
Dept. of Computer Science
Government College University
Hyderabad, Pakistan
imtiaz.brohi@gcuh.edu.pk
Nadeem Ahmed Kanasro
IMCS
University of Sindh
Jamshoro, Pakistan
nadeem.kanasro@usindh.edu.pk
Muhammad Umar Murad
Dept. of Software Engineering
Istanbul Aydin University
Istanbul, Turkey
umarmurad11@gmail.com
Asad Ali Jamali
Dept. of Economics
University of Essex
Colchester, United Kingdom
asadjamali15@gmail.com
Abstract— The cryptocurrency boom has resulted in a sub-
stantial rise in energy usage and carbon emissions. The mining
process of Bitcoin is notorious for its energy intensive process
because it requires huge computational power. The carbon
footprint of Bitcoin mining is a growing concern that’s why we
have to analyze the number of CO2 emissions resulting from
the mining procedure. In this study, we have utilized machine
learning techniques to examine the number of CO2 emissions
generated by Bitcoin mining, analyzed the correlations
between Bitcoin price, electricity consumption, and CO2
emissions, and pinpoint the factors during the process of
Bitcoin mining that leads to CO2 emissions. We gathered
global data set on Bitcoin electricity consumption, prices, and
CO2 emissions. We trained supervised machine learning model
(Regression) in Python to analyze and investigate the data. Our
research findings have great implications for policymakers and
researchers worried about the impact of the latest technologies
on the environment, and in future Bitcoin policies and
practices; they should prioritize sustainability and reduce the
carbon footprint of mining operations. In the end, our research
will provide valuable insights into the environmental impact of
Bitcoin mining, highlight the factors that cause CO2 emissions
and underscored the need for further research and action to
reduce the carbon footprint of cryptocurrencies.
Keywords— Bitcoin, Market price, Energy consumption,
CO2 emissions, POW, Machine learning
I.
INTRODUCTION
A.
The Revolutionary Blockchain Technology and the
Concept of Digital Money:
The unknown maker of Bitcoin, known by its pseudo
name Satoshi Nakamoto, delivered a dream of a
computerized cash in 2008 that, only decade after the fact,
had a pinnacle market capitalization of more than $800
billion [1]. The concept of digital money and the blockchain
technology used by Bitcoin were not revolutionary in
themselves. However, the decentralized management of data
protocol by motivated network users for transaction
verification and network reliability was ground breaking,
this system known as the “first blockchain” is called Bitcoin
[2].
B.
The Proof-of-Work Consensus Mechanism:
To ensure the prevention of double spending and
manipulation, Bitcoin’s blockchain utilizes the Proof-of-
Work consensus mechanism. This mechanism was initially
implemented by the Hashcash spam-protection system,
which utilized search problems of hash functions for
ownership and transaction validation [3]. Network users
must solve the search puzzles to contribute valid blocks to
the chain. The difficulty of these puzzles changes
frequently, considering shifts in computing power and in
order to maintain a ten-minute gap between each block
addition [4].
C.
CO2 Emissions from Bitcoin Mining:
In the years there has been a noticeable rise, in the
popularity of Bitcoin, which has led to an increase in its
energy consumption. This has sparked a debate among
scientists about the carbon emissions that occur during the
process of mining Bitcoin and how it affects the
environment. This study aims to estimate the amount of
CO2 emitted during Bitcoin mining and explore the
relationships between Bitcoins market price, energy usage
and emissions. The research holds importance for reasons.
Firstly there is a lack of studies that thoroughly investigate
this topic and provide an understanding of the carbon
emissions resulting from Bitcoin. By contributing to this
research we hope to discussions on cryptocurrencies their
impact on our carbon footprint, energy consumption patterns
and what lies ahead for currencies. Secondly climate change
is a crisis that demands immediate action. Environmentalists
are rightly concerned about Bitcoin mining being a
contributor to greenhouse gas emissions given its recent
surge in popularity during the Covid-19 pandemic. Most of
the energy used for mining Bitcoin comes from countries on
coal or oil resources, which raises concerns, about
sustainability and its environmental impact. Therefore,
studying CO2 emissions resulting from Bitcoin mining will
help shed light on its consequences and aid efforts towards
mitigating any effects. Furthermore, policymakers can
derive insights and information, from this research enabling
them to formulate policies and regulations that foster the
growth of sustainable economies. Finally, studying the CO2
emissions of bitcoin mining is consistent with our social and
ethical responsibilities. As human beings, we have a
responsibility to ensure that our actions do not negatively
affect future generations or damage the environment and
other species in the ecosystem. By researching and
understanding Bitcoin’s carbon footprint, we can help
reduce its impact and play a small part in creating a better
future. The aim of this paper is to analyze the amount of
CO2 produced by BTC mining, and to examine the
relationship between price, energy consumption and CO2
emissions, and the resulting impact on the environment.
Several relevant literature reviews are provided in the
background of study section to support this study. This study
will help to advance understanding of the topic and provide
valuable insights into the current state of research in this
area. The methodology section presents a hypothesis that
shows the strong relationship between Bitcoin price (USD)
and electricity consumption (KWh), and carbon emissions
(KgCO2) associated with Bitcoin mining process. A ten-
year data set (2011–2021) of price, energy consumption, and
CO2 emissions is collected. Correlation analysis has been
conducted, and the supervised machine learning model
(regression) is trained in Python programming on the data
set to find the linear relationship between variables and do
the predictive analysis. The findings focus on bitcoin’s price,
energy consumption, and carbon emissions related to the use
of coal, oil, and gas.
II.
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
A.
Energy consumption:
One of the biggest concerns with Bitcoin mining is the
huge amount of energy required. The process of verifying
transactions and incorporating them into the blockchain
requires special computing tools to solve complex
mathematical problems and consequently requires huge
amount of computing power and electricity [5]. Over time,
bitcoin mining has become increasingly energy-intensive,
causing many to issue alarms. According to the Cambridge
Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, bitcoin mining
consumed 113.89 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity by
2021, equivalent to the annual energy consumption of
countries such as Argentina or the Netherlands [6]. The main
reason behind the increased energy consumption in bitcoin
mining is the proof-of-work (PoW) consensus algorithm.
Miners have to solve complex mathematical puzzles to
validate transactions using this method, and the first person
to solve the puzzle is rewarded with additional bitcoins, but
the process of solving that puzzle requires a great deal of
computing power, which leads to increased power
consumption [7]. Factors affecting the energy consumption
of bitcoin mining, such as the efficiency of the mining
equipment, the cost of electricity at the mining site, and the
complexity of the mathematical puzzles some include
bitcoin mining in areas with relatively cheap electricity and
efficient mining equipment. On the hand if the cost of
electricity is high or mining machines are not efficient
mining in those areas may not be profitable, for miners. This
could lead to them abandoning their operations [8]. In times
there has been increasing concern regarding the
consequences of bitcoin mining. The significant electricity
consumption linked to this process could result in
greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to climate change.
According to a study published in the journal Nature
Climate Change it was estimated that bitcoin mining led to
22 to 22.9 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in
2018. Other research suggests that global greenhouse gas
emissions from mining make up 0.5 percent [9]. To address
these concerns some mining companies have started
adopting energy sources like hydropower or geothermal
energy to power their equipment. This shift allows for
carbon mining operations in areas where renewable energy
is available. Additionally there is a move, towards using
energy machines for mining purposes which can help reduce
the overall energy requirements [10]. In summary bitcoin
mining is a demanding process that heavily relies on
electricity consumption. Although it does have impacts
efforts are being made within the industry to decrease both
energy consumption and associated emissions. As the
number of people using cryptocurrencies continues to grow,
it becomes increasingly important to establish regulations
that are both friendly and sustainable [11].
B.
Carbon Emissions:
Bitcoin transactions and mining are energy-intensive
operations that require large amounts of electricity to
operate. As a result, bitcoin can have a significant
environmental impact, especially in terms of carbon
emissions [12]. Bitcoin’s large carbon footprint comes from
the mining process, which involves solving complicated
mathematical equations to validate transactions on the
blockchain This process requires huge amounts of energy
and electricity. According to the Cambridge Bitcoin
Electricity Consumption Index, bitcoin mining uses about
113.89 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity per year, which
is equivalent to the annual energy consumption of countries
like the Netherlands or Argentina [13]. The carbon
emissions associated with bitcoin mining are a cause, for
concern in regions reliant on fossil fuels for electricity.
According to a study published in a journal, carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions from bitcoin mining have risen by 22 to
22.9 million metric tons since 2018[14]. Another study in
the journal Joule estimated that bitcoin mining was
responsible for emitting around 37 to 43 million tons of
CO2 by the year 2019. These figures are comparable to the
carbon emissions of nations like Qatar or New Zealand
[15]. Several factors influence the amount of carbon
emitted during bitcoin mining including the energy source
used, efficiency of the mining equipment and location of
mining operations. Mining activities situated in areas with
access to energy sources like hydroelectricity or geothermal
energy have a lower environmental impact compared to
those reliant on fossil fuels. Conversely mining operations
located where coal or natural gas is predominant as an
electricity source result in carbon footprints [16]. It's
important to note that no other cryptocurrencies carry the
level of carbon footprint as Bitcoin does. Some alternative
cryptocurrencies employ consensus algorithms, such, as
proof of stake which consume less energy compared to
Bitcoins proof of work consensus process [17]. However
because of its popularity and significant value Bitcoin
currently has the carbon footprint, among all
cryptocurrencies [18]. While there are concerns, about the
carbon emissions caused by Bitcoin steps are being taken to
address the impact of cryptocurrencies. Certain mining
companies are exploring ways to use energy equipment, for
mining and others are considering switching to renewable
energy sources to power their operations. Additionally,
transitioning to less energy intensive consensus
mechanisms like proof-of-stake, which are more
environmentally friendly, is also being considered [19]. To
conclude, Bitcoin contributes a substantial amount of
carbon dioxide emissions, exacerbating the issue of global
climate change. As the use of cryptocurrencies continues to
grow, it is crucial to find solutions that reduce the
environmental impact of these technologies. Achieving this
goal will require a combination of technological
advancements, regulatory changes, and increased public
awareness.
III.
METHODOLOGY
For this research, data collected and analyzed related to
Bitcoin price, energy consumption KWh, and Carbon emis-
sions KgCO2. The primary source of data for Bitcoin energy
consumption was the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity
Consumption Index (CBECI) while Investing.com website
was used for Bitcoin price dataset. To analyze the link
between price, energy consumption and CO2 emissions,
supervised machine learning model (Regression) was trained
to do the predictive analysis and data visualized using
Pandas and showed graphs to represent the relationship
between these variables. Additionally, literature reviews are
used to support the hypothesis and findings.
A.
Hypothesis:
According to a hypothesis, there exists a positive
correlation between the price and energy consumption in
Bitcoin. Additionally, energy consumption demonstrates a
correlation with the proof of work (POW) consensus
mechanism. It is worth noting that energy consumption is
directly responsible for the high carbon emissions associated
with Bitcoin mining. One might argue that whenever the
price of Bitcoin increases, energy consumption follows suit.
Moreover, the energy utilized by Bitcoin miners
predominantly originates from non-renewable sources such
as coal, oil, and gas. The main cause of this high energy
consumption can be attributed to the proof of work protocol
(PoW) employed in Bitcoin mining. This protocol is
characterized by a high energy intensity consensus
mechanism utilized to validate transactions. It is important
to acknowledge that the proof of work consensus
mechanism results in the high energy consumption
witnessed in Bitcoin mining, consequently contributing to
the substantial carbon emissions. Fig. 1 the flowchart
visually represents the hypothesis.
B.
Data:
Raw data formats are used, to train the model, and
visualized using Python Pandas library. Electricity
consumption data is obtained from Cambridge electricity
consumption in- dex(CBECI) [20], emissions data divided
into average, coal, oil and gas from data set collected by the
authors [21], and price data in USD from Investing website
[22]. Table 1 shows abbreviations, variable descriptions,
units used for analysis and sources from where data
collected to use for analysis.
C.
Price and Energy Consumption:
In recent times, Bitcoin has garnered attention of investors
due to its highly speculative and volatile nature. One
interesting observation is the strong connection between the
price of Bitcoin and its energy usage. Extensive research has
been conducted to explore the various factors contributing to
this positive correlation. Understanding how the Bitcoin
network operates is crucial. Miners utilize their power to
tackle mathematical challenges, on the decentralized
network aiming to earn freshly minted Bitcoins. The
networks security and efficiency are reinforced with the
increase in allocated processing power. Nonetheless this
procedure consumes an amount of energy, which's the key
TABLE I: DATA SET
Abbreviation
Variable description
Unit
Source
BTCENE
G
UE
Electricity
Consumption
KWh
(CBECI)
BTCEMI
G
UE
Average Emissions
kgC02
Authors
BTCOAL
G
UE
Coal
Emissions
kgCO2
Authors
BTCOIL
G
UE
OIL
Emissions
kgCO2
Authors
BTCGAS
G
UE
Gas
Emissions
kgC
O2
Authors
BTC
P
rice
Price of
Bitcoin
USD
Investing
Fig. 1: Hypothesis Flowchart
factor contributing to the direct correlation, between Bitcoin
Price and energy consumption. As the value of Bitcoin goes
up it attracts miners to join the network leading to an
increase, in energy usage. A study carried out by the
University of Cambridge reveals that in 2020 Bitcoins
energy consumption rose by 66% reaching an estimated
usage of 121.36 TWh. This level of energy consumption is
comparable to countries like Argentina and the Netherlands.
Furthermore the mining difficulty also has an impact on the
relationship between energy and price, as more miners
become part of the network solving challenges becomes
harder, requires more processing power, consequently this
leads to increased energy consumption and drives up the
price of Bitcoin. However it's important to note that
profitability, in mining heavily relies on energy costs.
Miners can operate with larger profit margins in nations like
China and Russia, where electricity is inexpensive, than in
nations like the US and Germany, where energy expenses
are high. profitability increases as the price of bitcoin
increases, leading to higher energy consumption, and the
value of bitcoin grows significantly. It should be noted that
the distribution of Bitcoin’s energy consumption is not
uniform across the globe. About 65% of bitcoin’s
computing power is in China and Kazakhstan, where a large
portion of energy comes from coal-fired power plants. This
raises concerns about bitcoin’s environmental impact,
especially in relation to fossil fuels. In 2021, Bitcoin’s
popularity as a means of finance and payment continued to
rise, and its value reached new record highs in a relatively
short period of time. In less than a month, the price of
bitcoin not only surpassed the previous record of about
20,000 USD per coin set in December 2017 but also
doubled to more than 40,000 USD on January 8, 2021.
Simultaneously, miners use ASICs (application-specific
integrated circuits). These machines are involved in the
creation of new blocks for the underlying blockchain of the
Bitcoin network, with successful block creation receiving a
certain amount of Bitcoins as a reward. In January, it was
reported that Bitmain, a leading manufacturer of such
devices, had sold out until August 2021 due to
overwhelming demand. The increasing popularity of Bitcoin
mining has ignited afresh debate regarding the energy usage
and resulting carbon emissions of the Bitcoin network.
Bitcoin mining devices rely on electrical energy for their
operation, and prior to the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price, it
was estimated that the entire network consumed between 78
and 101 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually. With
an increasing number of active mining machines, the
network’s power requirements have also grown [23]. Fig. 2
illustrates a correlation between the price of Bitcoin and its
energy consumption. As the price of Bitcoin rises, there is a
corresponding increase in electricity consumption, as
observed in April 2018. This suggests that whenever there is
a surge in Bitcoin’s market price, there is also a
corresponding increase in energy consumption. There is a
strong correlation between the price of Bitcoin and its
energy consumption. However, it is important to consider
other factors that contribute to Bitcoin’s high energy usage.
These factors include the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin
network, the cost of energy, mining difficulty, and the
uneven distribution of Bitcoin’s hash power. As Bitcoin
continues to gain popularity as an investment and payment
method, it is inevitable that energy consumption will
increase unless mining technology evolves and new
technologies are introduced. This raises concerns about the
environmental impact and sustainability of Bitcoin’s
growth.
D.
Proof of Work (PoW) Protocol:
According to Amaury Sechet, the founder of eCash, the
PoW protocol is utilized by Bitcoin and other blockchains to
determine the validity of blocks. It ensures that blocks are
considered valid only if they require a certain level of
computational power for production. This consensus
mechanism allows decentralized networks to foster trust
among anonymous entities. In 2009, it was possible to mine
one Bitcoin using a regular desktop computer and consume
a minimal amount of electricity. However, in 2021, the
energy consumption required to mine one Bitcoin equaled
the electricity usage of a standard American home over a
span of nine years, as reported by The New York Times.
Specialized hardware called ASICs, which stands for
Application-Specific Integrated Circuits, is utilized by
Bitcoin miners to solve the PoW algorithm needed for
adding transaction blocks to the blockchain. Unlike general-
purpose computers or GPUs, ASICs are specifically
designed for efficient mining and can solve the PoW puzzle
at a faster rate. Despite the efficiency of ASICs, miners still
require a significant amount of energy to approve
transactions. The number of miners directly impacts the
energy consumption of the PoW algorithm for Bitcoin. As
the value of Bitcoin increases, more miners are incentivized
to join the network, leading to a higher energy consumption.
Additionally, the energy consumption further rises when
more miners contribute to the network, as the difficulty of
solving mathematical puzzles increases. Based on the
University Cambridge Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index
(CBECI), Bitcoin ranks 28th in terms of electricity
consumption globally. It uses 143 TWh of energy annually,
surpassing the energy consumption of countries such as
Pakistan, Argentina, and the Netherlands. Fig.3, Bitcoin
uses more energy than Argentina, if Bitcoin was a country,
it would be in the top 30 energy users worldwide reported
by BBC in 2021.
IV.
RESULTS AND ANALYSIS
A.
Correlation Analysis:
Fig. 2: Energy and Price correlation
The analysis utilizing the Pearson correlation coefficient
demonstrates a robust positive correlation between Bitcoin
price and CO2 emissions (r=0.85). This signifies that when
the price of Bitcoin increases, there is also a tendency for
CO2 emissions to increase. It implies that the profitability
of Bitcoin mining, which is influenced by the price,
encourages miners to utilize more energy and
computational resources, resulting in higher CO2
emissions. There exists a moderate positive correlation
between Bitcoin energy consumption and CO2 emissions (r
= 0.65). It suggests that increased energy consumption by
the Bitcoin network is linked to higher CO2 emissions.
This is expected since the mining process necessitates
significant amounts of electricity, often derived from fossil
fuel sources, thereby causing greenhouse gas emissions.
B.
Regression Model:
Purpose of this analysis is to the relationship between
Bitcoin price, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions
using a multiple linear regression model. This model aims
to determine the impact of these variables on CO2
emissions and provide a reliable estimate of the
relationship. Statistically Significant Relationship: The
regression model showed a statistically significant
relationship (p-value ¡ 0.05) between Bitcoin price, energy
consumption, and CO2 emissions. Strong Fit: The model
explained a substantial 87% of the variation in CO2
emissions (R-squared = 0.87), indicating a strong fit
between the variables. Reliable Estimate: The adjusted R-
squared value of 0.86 verifies that the model does not over-
fit the data and provides a reliable estimate of the
relationship.
1)
Variable Effects on CO2 Emissions: Both Bitcoin
price and energy consumption exhibited positive and
statistically significant regression coefficients. This
suggests that both factors have a positive impact on CO2
emissions, validating the positive correlations observed in
the correlation analysis.
2)
Quantifying the Relationship: The model equation
al- lows us to quantify the relationship between Bitcoin
price, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions. With this
equation, we can estimate CO2 emissions based on the
values of Bitcoin price and energy consumption.
C.
Model Validation:
The regression model was validated using a separate
testing set, which was not used in the model training
process. The model performed well on the testing set,
achieving an R- squared value of 0.85 and an adjusted R-
squared value of 0.84. The RMSE value of 0.06 indicates
that the model can make accurate predictions of CO2
emissions based on Bitcoin price and energy consumption.
D.
Price of Bitcoin:
Bitcoin, a decentralized cryptocurrency, has gained
immense popularity and its price has been highly volatile.
Historical data from January 2011 to December 2021 was
collected from Investing.com and analyzed using Python.
The analysis revealed a consistent upward trend in Bitcoin's
price, as shown in fig.3 starting from a low value in the early
years and reaching a peak of nearly $20,000 in December
2017. Despite fluctuations, the price has generally shown
gradual growth. Factors contributing to this increase include
adoption by mainstream institutions, investor demand, and
limited supply. Understanding Bitcoin's price movements
can help traders and investors make informed decisions.
E.
Emissions of Coal, Oil, and Gas Compared to
Average Energy Consumptions (2017-2021):
In this section we will explore the greenhouse gas
emissions produced by types of power sources including
coal, oil and gas. We will also compare these emissions to
the energy consumption associated with Bitcoin mining from
2017, to 2021. To collect and analyze the data, for our study
we relied on the Cambridge Bitcoin Power Consumption
Index (CBECI) and the data set provided on bitcoin carbon
footprint and energy consumption.
F.
Emissions Comparison to Bitcoin Mining Energy
Consumption (2017-2021):
In Fig. 4 we can observe a comparison, between the
emissions produced by the mixture and the emissions
resulting from the electricity consumed in Bitcoin mining.
The research indicates that there has been a trend in
emissions associated with Bitcoin mining from 2017 to
2021 measured in kilograms of CO2 per unit of energy
used. In 2017 the average emissions amounted to 492
grams of CO2 per kilogram of CO2 whereas by 2021 this
figure had risen to 672 grams. This increase, in emissions
can be attributed to the growing energy demands of Bitcoin
mining.
G.
Coal Emissions Comparison to Bitcoin Mining Energy
Consumption (2017-2021):
The Fig. 4 depicts the comparison, between energy
consumption for Bitcoin mining and coal emissions from
2017 to 2021. It is evident that there has been a rise in
Fig. 3: Price of Bitcoin (2011–2021)
Fig. 4: Emissions Compared (2017-2021)
emissions resulting from the use of coal in Bitcoin mining
during this period. Specifically, CO2 emissions from coal
have increased from around 965 grams per kgCO2 in 2017
to 1386 grams, per kgCO2 in 2021. Interestingly, coal
emits more pollutants than gas and oil combined, and the
increased popularity of Bitcoin mining is the reason for this
growth.
H.
Oil Emissions Comparison to Energy Consumption
(2017- 2021):
The graph in Fig. 4 compares the amount of electricity
used for Bitcoin mining from 2017 to 2021withtheamountof
oil emissions. The graph shows that, while they are less than
those from coal mining, the emissions from oil extraction
have remained rather high throughout time. Oil emissions in
2017 were roughly 780 grams of CO2 per kg2, and by 2021,
they had somewhat grown to 797 grams of CO2 per kgCO2.
This is explained by the fact that Bitcoin mining still
primarily uses oil as its energy source.
I.
Gas Emissions Comparison to Mining Bitcoins (2017-
2021):
As shown in fig. 4 from 2017 to 2021, the emissions
from gas used in Bitcoin mining have also stayed
comparatively low when compared to emissions from coal
and oil. In 2017, gas emissions were approximately 443
grams of CO2 per kgCO2, which slightly decreased to 432
grams of CO2 per kgCO2 in 2021, according to the CBECI
dataset. This difference can be explained by the fact that
gas is not a primary source of energy for Bitcoin mining.
V.
CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK
Extensive research reveals that Bitcoin mining has a
significant carbon footprint, threatening the environment.
The price of Bitcoin correlates with its energy consumption
and carbon emissions. It is crucial to explore energy-
efficient alternatives, regulate energy sources, and mitigate
Bitcoin's environmental impact. Our upcoming research will
focus on how regulations and technology can reduce CO2
emissions in mining operations and develop solutions for the
Bitcoin network. Addressing Bitcoin mining's consequences
and carbon footprint is essential.
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