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* Corresponding author: Kathryn Lauren Roman Banda, University of New Mexico, e-mail:
kathrynromanbanda@gmail.com
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
Perspectives on Terrorism
Introduction
Figure 1. Sample Population of Civil Wars Involving Terrorism Organised by Type of Ending
1970-2014
Perspectives on Terrorism
Literature Review
terrorism
terrorist group
Terrorist groups guerillas
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
Perspectives on Terrorism
during
*
Figure 2. Global Terrorist Attacks and Related Deaths 1970-2016
Perspectives on Terrorism
minimal
maximal
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
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spoiling
Intra-war
Perspectives on Terrorism
Figure 3. Population of Terrorist Groups Organised by Goals and Ideologies 1970-2014
Theory
†
victory
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
Perspectives on Terrorism
defeated. With defeated the UCDP means that their military capability is destroyed to the
again, if there is a new incompatibility or if there are new actors and goals of that party.
Hypothesis 1. Groups aligned with the civil war winner will reduce terrorism in the post-
war period.
Hypothesis 2. Groups aligned with the civil war loser will increase terrorism in the post-
Perspectives on Terrorism
‡
primary insurgents
Research Methodology
Extended Data
on Terrorist Groups
§
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
Perspectives on Terrorism
change
onset time
as-if
in
vitro
parallel trends assumption¶
Attacks.
Attacks^'
pre
post
Perspectives on Terrorism
Z
Table 1. Regression Model Test of Parallel Trends Assumption for Time Periods One and Two
1970-2014
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
Perspectives on Terrorism
all
**
††
war for central control
Perspectives on Terrorism
sensmakr
central war
Figure 4. Contour plot of DID model robustness to confounding benchmarked using
the control for the centrality of the war (CW)
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
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Results and Discussion
positive
Table 2. Negative Binomial Difference-in-Difference Model of the Effect of Insurgent Victories on
Terrorist Attacks 1970-2014
Perspectives on Terrorism
Hypotheses 1 and 2
Hypotheses 1
Hypothesis 2
Figures 5a - 5b. Comparison of Terrorist Activity During One-Sided Insurgent and Incumbent
Victories 1970 – 2014
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
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Hypothesis 1
‡‡
increase
goals actual
ideologies
Hypothesis 2
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Hypothesis 1§§
Conclusion
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
Perspectives on Terrorism
Ms Kathryn Lauren Roman Banda is a doctoral degree candidate in international relations and
research methodology. Her methodological scholarship is interdisciplinary. Her political science
research focuses on the intersection of civil wars with outcomes such as terrorism and sexual
violence. Her doctoral dissertation dissects the responses of terrorist groups to economic shocks;
this research highlights violence within central sub-Saharan Africa, including the Sahel region
and the Lake Chad River basin. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1647-197X
peacekeeping within war-torn areas. Her research combines qualitative, archival research with
quantitative methods. Her forthcoming publications analyse the effectiveness of the United Nations
peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan, as well as the use of United Nations radio broadcasts for
mitigating wartime violence. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2592-8556
Perspectives on Terrorism
Appendix
Table A-1. Terrorist Groups Active During Civil Wars 1970-2014
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
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Table A-2. Descriptive Statistics
Table A-3. Pairwise Correlations
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Table A-4. Pre-Treatment Comparison of Treatment and Control Groups by Indicator 1970-2014
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Endnotes
International Security
Nationalism and Ethnic Politics
International Studies Review
.” Foreign Policy Analysis
International Studies Quarterly
International
Security
Perspectives on Politics
Journal of Peace Research
Journal of Politics
International Security
International
Security
Comparative Political Studies
Foreign Policy AnalysisThe Logic of Violence in Civil War.
International SecurityHow Terrorist Groups
End: Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida.
Dialog-IO
American Political Science Review
Twisting Arms and Sending Messages
American Journal of Political Science
The Oxford
Handbook of Terrorism
Terrorism and Political Violence
Journal of Peace Research
How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist
Campaigns.
Politics & Society
World Politics
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
Perspectives on Terrorism
The Oxford Handbook of Terrorism
Terrorism and Civil WarDo Terrorists Win
Twisting Arms and Sending MessagesTerrorism in the Context of Civil
War.
Do Terrorists WinTwisting Arms and Sending Messages.
The Yale
Review of International Studies
International InteractionsTwisting Arms and
Sending Messages.
Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida;Rebel Rulers.
Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida.
;;
International Interactions
Perspectives on Terrorism
Terrorism and Political Violence
The Strategies of TerrorismTerrorism and Civil War.
Asian Journal of Peacebuilding
International
Studies QuarterlyThe Strategies of TerrorismStopping the
Killing during the Peace International
Security
Resilient Cities: Countering Violent Extremism at Local Level
Journal of Peace Research
Routledge
Handbook of South Asian Criminology
European Journal of International Relations
Crime and Justice
Áine
Journal of Interpersonal Violence
Small Wars & Insurgencies
Third World Thematics: A
TWQ Journal
Trauma Exposure and Domestic Violence.
War and Postwar Violence;Understanding the Relation between War Economies
and Post-War Crime.
International
Security
Civil Wars
European Journal of International Relations
Small Wars & Insurgencies
Shifting Targets
Vol. XVIII, Issue 1 - March 2024
Perspectives on Terrorism
The Geo-Temporal Evolution of Violence
Terrorism and Civil War;Twisting Arms and Sending Messages; Terrorism in the
Context of Civil War.
Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents’ Choices After Civil War.
International Security
Journal of Peace Research
Perspectives on Politics
American Political Science Review Protection through Presence
Stopping the Killing during the “Peace;
The Oxford Handbook
of Governance and Limited Statehood,
Civil Wars
Rebel Governance,
Peacebuilding: Selling the Peace?Networks of Rebellion.
Journal of Peace Research
Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's
Companion
Terrorism and Civil War;Is Terrorism Really a Weapon of the Weak?
Is Terrorism Really a Weapon of the Weak?
Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior
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Political Analysis
Perspectives on Terrorism
Established in 2007, Perspectives on Terrorism (PT) is a quarterly, peer-
reviewed, and open-access academic journal. PT is a publication of the
International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT), in partnership with the
Institute of Security and Global Affairs (ISGA) at Leiden University, and the
Handa Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence (CSTPV) at
the University of St Andrews.
Copyright and Licensing
Perspectives on Terrorism publications are published in open access format
and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-
NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License, which permits non-commercial re-
use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original
work is properly cited, the source referenced, and is not altered, transformed,
or built upon in any way. Alteration or commercial use requires explict prior
authorisation from the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism and all
author(s).
© 2023 ICCT
Contact
E: pt.editor@icct.nl
W: pt.icct.nl
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