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Techniques of Event History Modeling: New Approaches to Causal Analysis

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... The traditional approach in modeling the bankruptcy of SMEs was mostly based on simple discriminate analysis and mainly financial factors (Altman 1968, Beaver 1966. The authors extended this approach by trying new methods like Random Survival Forests (RSF), as well as considering additional non-financial variables that allow the segmentation of companies (size, age, region, legal form). ...
... The main advantage of the Cox model is the assessment of the variables influence on the process without the necessity of base hazard ( ) 0 h t specification. The main disadvantage of the Cox model is the hazard proportionality assumption (Blossfeld and Rohwer 2002). This assumption requires that for each pair of individuals in any time the hazard rate is fixed. ...
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The total income Y can be expressed as the sum of c components called income sources. The N units of the population can be partitioned into k different subpopulations. In the paper the decompositions by subpopulations as well as by income components of the point I Y h ( ) and the synthetic I Y( ) inequality indexes proposed by Zenga in 2007 are considered. These indexes can be decomposed into the contributions of income sources and/or into the contributions of subpopulations ,and also the decomposition into within- and between-group inequality can be carried out. In the paper, the two-step approach was used: first of all “additive” decompositions of the point index were derived, and then, by averaging these decompositions, the corresponding decompositions of the synthetic index were obtained. The results were then applied to the analysis of income distributions in Poland and Italy based on the household budget surveys conducted by Statistics Poland and the Bank of Italy, respectively.
... We conduct this analysis separately for Italy and Spain, firstly on all migrant women by motherhood and marital status, and secondly by origin. This method does not make any assumptions about process distribution, hence it is particularly appropriate for an initial exploratory data analysis according to Blossfeld and Rohwer (2002). ...
... It is based on the measure of a risk estimate at each point in time where at least one event occurs, without a priori setting the time intervals. Indeed, it is based on the principle that time intervals derive directly from the phenomenon, rather than being imposed from outside(Blossfeld and Rohwer 2002). ...
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This paper seeks to analyse migrant women’s reproductive behaviour in two countries with the lowest fertility rates, namely, Italy and Spain. We assess differences in migrant fertility patterns according to country of origin by comparing the post-migration motherhood of Moroccan and Romanian women. We have used data from the “2007 National Immigrant Survey” (INE) and the ”2011-2012 Survey on Social Integration and Condition among Foreign Citizens” (ISTAT) to adopt an event-history approach to the factors that affect the birth of the first child after migration. Specifically, we focus on marital status upon arrival and on the number of previous children, controlling in turn for the women’s socioeconomic circumstances. The results show, firstly, that Moroccan women have a higher fertility rate than Romanians in both countries. Secondly, the risk of the first birth shortly after migration is higher among childless and married women, and this probability remain high even for women from Morocco with children. Thirdly a cross-country comparison reveals that the results related to childbearing patterns are similar.
... Furthermore, while searching for an answer in regards to the question about the direction of causality related to H2 hypothesis, the method of life tables which are part of a group of probabilistic-statistical Even History Analysis methods was applied [63,64]. The life tables are based on the idea that some life events intersect over time. ...
... The recording was conducted for each measure for the period of time between 2005 and 2019. For characterisation of the survival trajectories and an identification of the differences between them, use was made of Median survival time, as well as Breslow (Generalised Wilcoxon), and Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) indexes [63,64]. Median survival time expresses a level of mean waiting time from a certain time point until an event appears. ...
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This paper explores the relationship between defence expenditure and government debt in small European Union countries that are members of NATO, such as Luxembourg, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, DRenmark, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The investigation used Eurostat data in relation to gross government debt, as well as NATO information regarding defence expenditure as a share of GDP and its distribution by main category for the period between 2005 and 2019. The authors applied descriptive statistics and methods of multivariate statistics: Spearman’s correlation, the ANOVA test, and Life tables. Taking into consideration the tendencies of variables in all examined countries, the results show that the share of defence expenditure in GDP correlates statistically significantly and negatively with government gross debt. Latvia, Slovakia, and Slovenia revealed statistically significant relationships between variables, while Luxembourg, Denmark and Lithuania insignificant. In Estonia, the relationship between variables is strong and positive. Additionally, the investigation shows that, whether for increasing defence expenditure or for stable or decreasing defence expenditure, the trajectories of government debt have no clear interrelation in explored countries. Therefore, the cause of government debt by means of defence expenditure alone can only be partially explained. The insights that were drawn from this study could be applied to government finance management processes, as well as to ensure both national security and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals 2030.
... Das bedeutet auch, dass eine Abweichung von der Ideal Worker Norm für Frauen und insbesondere für Mütter im Einklang mit ihrer Geschlechterrolle steht und daher akzeptierter ist oder K auch teilweise erwartet wird (Rudman und Mescher 2013;Vandello et al. 2013). Unterstützt wird diese Abweichung in Deutschland durch das nach wie vor weit verbreitete modifizierte männliche Ernährermodell, demzufolge sich familienpolitische Maßnahmen immer noch am Ideal der "good mother" (Grunow et al. 2006, S. 123) (Blossfeld et al. 2007). Ereignisdatenanalysen haben zum einen den Vorteil, dass die Zeit, die Personen im Ausgangszustand verbracht haben, mit in die Berechnung der Hazardrate mit einfließt. ...
... Für die Schätzung der Hazardrate und des Einflusses der beruflichen Merkmale verwenden wir Cox-Regressionsmodelle auf Monatsbasis (Cleves 1999;Blossfeld et al. 2007). Wir schätzen die Modelle mit geclusterten Standardfehlern auf Personenebene, da Personen im Beobachtungszeitraum mehrmals eine Vollzeitbeschäftigung innehaben und entsprechend mehrere Übergänge in Teilzeitbeschäftigung aufweisen können (Cleves 1999). ...
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Zusammenfassung Teilzeitarbeit gilt in Deutschland als ein wichtiges Instrument für die Vereinbarkeit von Beruf und Familie. Bisherige Erklärungen von Teilzeitarbeit fokussieren vorrangig auf Frauen und diskutieren individuelle, haushaltsbezogene und institutionelle Faktoren. Männer sowie berufsstrukturelle Einflussfaktoren auf Teilzeitarbeit wurden bislang jedoch kaum adressiert. In diesem Beitrag untersuchen wir daher die Bedeutung von Berufsmerkmalen für Übergänge von Vollzeit- in Teilzeitbeschäftigung von Frauen und Männern zwischen 1992 und 2015 in Deutschland. Im Fokus steht die Frage, inwiefern die berufliche Geschlechtersegregation und berufliche Arbeitszeitarrangements als Rahmenbedingungen den Übergang in Teilzeit erklären können und ob sie geschlechterdifferente Effekte aufweisen. Unsere theoretischen Überlegungen basieren auf Krügers Institutionenansatz und Ackers Ansatz der Gendered Organizations. Für die Analysen werden Daten des Nationalen Bildungspanels (Startkohorte 6) mit aggregierten beruflichen Merkmalen, basierend auf dem Mikrozensus, kombiniert. Die Ergebnisse der Cox Proportional Hazard-Modelle zeigen, dass weniger die berufliche Geschlechtersegregation, sondern vor allem berufliche Arbeitszeitarrangements Übergänge in Teilzeit beeinflussen, allerdings auf geschlechterdifferenzierte Weise. Während die Vielarbeitsnorm in Berufen, gemessen an Vollzeitarbeit und Überstunden, Teilzeitarbeit für Männer verhindert, gehen Frauen unter diesen Rahmenbedingungen häufiger in Teilzeit über.
... As indicated by the bidirectional arrows between the birth and union blocks, we also model the interrelationships of parenthood and partnership processes as theorised in section 3.1. Hence, we define -assuming conditional independence of the processes (Blossfeld and Rohwer 2002) -all transitions between birth and union states to be dependent on duration, age of the individual, birth cohort, and detailed combinations of current and past unions and births. The results for the simulated family life trajectories can thus be "interpreted as cohort life table indicators coming from a fairly large age-, duration-and rank-specific multi-state life table" (cf. ...
... Nature and human society are rich sources of complex systems (examples can be found, e.g., in economics, social sciences, network theory, dynamics of research groups, etc. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]). Because of this the complex systems attract much research attention in the last decades, see for examples, [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. Most of the complex systems are nonlinear-many such examples can be found in the fluid mechanics or solid-state physics [23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. ...
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The goal of this article is to discuss the Simple Equations Method (SEsM) for obtaining exact solutions of nonlinear partial differential equations and to show that several well-known methods for obtaining exact solutions of such equations are connected to SEsM. In more detail, we show that the Hirota method is connected to a particular case of SEsM for a specific form of the function from Step 2 of SEsM and for simple equations of the kinds of differential equations for exponential functions. We illustrate this particular case of SEsM by obtaining the three- soliton solution of the Korteweg-de Vries equation, two-soliton solution of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation, and the soliton solution of the Ishimori equation for the spin dynamics of ferromagnetic materials. Then we show that a particular case of SEsM can be used in order to reproduce the methodology of the inverse scattering transform method for the case of the Burgers equation and Korteweg-de Vries equation. This particular case is connected to use of a specific case of Step 2 of SEsM. This step is connected to: (i) representation of the solution of the solved nonlinear partial differential equation as expansion as power series containing powers of a “small” parameter ϵ; (ii) solving the differential equations arising from this representation by means of Fourier series, and (iii) transition from the obtained solution for small values of ϵ to solution for arbitrary finite values of ϵ. Finally, we show that the much-used homogeneous balance method, extended homogeneous balance method, auxiliary equation method, Jacobi elliptic function expansion method, F-expansion method, modified simple equation method, trial function method and first integral method are connected to particular cases of SEsM.
... Thus, the discussed model extends models studied up to now, for example, in [13,14], and has different possible applications such as: (i) to model flow of a substance through a channel and use of part of this substance in some industrial process happening in the nodes of the channel or (ii) to model human migration flows. The last application is important because of the frequent use of probability and deterministic models of human migration [15][16][17][18][19] and as the migration flows are important for taking decisions about economic development of regions of a country [20][21][22][23][24] for analysis of migration networks [13,[25][26][27][28][29][30][31], and ideological struggles [32,33]; for study of waves and probability distributions in population systems [34][35][36][37], etc. Migration-like models are also used in other research areas [38,39]. The model described below can be connected to an appropriate urn model. ...
Article
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We discuss the motion of substance in a channel containing nodes of a network. Each node of the channel can exchange substance with: (i) neighboring nodes of the channel, (ii) network nodes which do not belong to the channel, and (iii) environment of the network. The new point in this study is that we assume possibility for exchange of substance among flows of substance between nodes of the channel and: (i) nodes that belong to the network but do not belong to the channel and (ii) environment of the network. This leads to an extension of the model of motion of substance and the extended model contains previous models as particular cases. We use a discrete-time model of motion of substance and consider a stationary regime of motion of substance in a channel containing a finite number of nodes. As results of the study, we obtain a class of probability distributions connected to the amount of substance in nodes of the channel. We prove that the obtained class of distributions contains all truncated discrete probability distributions of discrete random variable ω which can take values 0, 1,. .. , N. Theory for the case of a channel containing infinite number of nodes is presented in Appendix A. The continuous version of the discussed discrete probability distributions is described in Appendix B. The discussed extended model and obtained results can be used for the study of phenomena that can be modeled by flows in networks: motion of resources, traffic flows, motion of migrants, etc. Keywords: network; channel of network; flow of substance in a channel of a network; probability distributions for stationary flow of substance; Katz, Ord, Kemp families of probability distributions; general forms of discrete and continuous distribution for stationary flow of substance
... Kaplan-Meier yöntemi, her bir gözlem biriminin araştırma konusu olayı yaşayıp yaşamadığı/tecrübe edip etmediği konusunda bilgi eksikliğinin olduğu durumlarda iki olay arasındaki süreyi analiz etmede kullanılan istatistiksel teknikler arasındadır. (Kaplan & Meier 1958;Blossfeld & Rohwer 2002). Eryurt ve Ergöçmen (2008), birinci, ikinci ve üçüncü çocuğa geçiş sürelerinin ebeveyn eğitiminin farklı kategorilerine göre değişimini Kaplan-Meier sağkalım eğrileri vasıtasıyla tartışmıştır. ...
... To meet this aim, the EPU program combined two elements. First, building on the life course approach the survey collected event history data on major life careers ofthe population (Blossfeld and Rohwer 1995;Willekens 1999). The questionnaire comprised complete histories on partnership förmation and dissolution, fertility, migration and residential mobility, education and work, with event-oriented data also being collected on the parents ofthe respondents. ...
Article
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The article focuses on the demographic development af the Ingrian minority in Estonia.In a broader framework the research underlying the article originates from acomparative study af national minority populations, coordinated by the EuropeanPopulation Committee. The article starts with a short overview af major changes inthe ethnic composition af the Estonian population, covering the implications af theSecond World War on national minorities and the emergence af aforeign-origin population.The analysis af the Ingrian minority draws on the data from the Estoniannational minority survey. Building on the life course approach and event history methodology,the survey was designed ta retrospectively reconstruct the trends in majordemographic processes and follow the continuity af minority-specific characteristicsacross three successive generations. The article discusses the size and age structureaf the Ingrian population, fertility and mortality patterns, ethnic intermarriage, languageand religious affiliation. The results emphasize that national minority populationstend ta follow distinct pathways af population development, which are different,from the patterns characteristic af the majority population as well asfrom those foundin the countries af historical origin. Also, the analysis clearly revealed long-termconsequences imposed by the loss af their homeland and their dispersal.
... We speak of state dependency between a past and a present or future biographical state BS or sub-dimension Z, if there is a mechanism by which the present or future biographical state BS(x*) or (BS(x), x > x*) is causally affected by stable states at least in a subdimension Z in the past (x ≤ x*). We speak of an event-or trigger-effect when there is a mechanism by which a life event regarding a status variable Z 1 , i.e. ev(Z 1 , x) at x ≤ x*, causally affects the probability of the short term occurrence of a life event of another status variable Z 2 (see also Blossfeld & Rohwer, 2002). ...
... Voor het berekenen van het effect van de ISD op recidiveprevalentie na uitstroom, wordt propensity score matching (PSM) gebruikt (Rosenbaum en Rubin, 1983). De recidiveprevalentie wordt getoetst na matching door gebruik te maken van globale tests voor het verschil tussen survivalcurves (Kaplan & Meier, 1958, Blossfeld & Rohwer, 2002p. 81, Breslow, 1970Tarone & Ware, 1997). ...
Technical Report
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Sinds oktober 2004 kan in Nederland aan veelplegers de maatregel plaatsing in een inrichting voor stelselmatige daders, kortweg de ISD-maatregel, worden opge-legd. De maatregel is bedoeld voor zeer actieve volwassen veelplegers (ZAVP) van veelal lichtere misdrijven bij wie het opleggen van standaardstraffen zoals de korte vrijheidsstraf geen zin blijken te hebben. Het WODC heeft de maatregel tweemaal eerder geëvalueerd in termen van effectiviteit op recidive na uitstroom en het inslui-tingseffect (ook wel het incapacitatie-effect genoemd). Uit deze eerdere studies van het WODC blijkt dat in vergelijking met een standaardsanctie de ISD-maatregel leidt tot minder recidiverende veelplegers. Bovendien leidt het tijdens de uitvoering van de maatregel ook tot minder criminaliteit. Ook is in het eerdere onderzoek het effect van de landelijk doorgevoerde zogenaamde verbetermaatregelen ISD op de effecti-viteit van de ISD geschat. Van deze verbetermaatregelen, ingevoerd vanaf 2009, werd in de eerdere evaluaties geen effect gevonden, mogelijk omdat het te vroeg was om een effect te meten. Vanwege het maatschappelijke belang om criminaliteit onder veelplegers terug te dringen, maar ook vanwege de impact van de maatregel op veelplegers, is het voor beleidsvoering relevant de effecten van de ISD-maatre-gel ook over de tijd te blijven volgen. Dit onderzoek omvat een replicatie van en een aantal uitbreidingen op de voor-gaande effectonderzoeken. Onder andere wordt de recidive van nieuwe cohorten uitgestroomd in de periode 2011 tot en met 2014 onderzocht, zijn er methodolo-gische vernieuwingen doorgevoerd om mogelijke vertekeningen in de schattingen tegen te gaan en is de samenhang van forensische zorg met recidive geschat. Ook is bekeken of het effect van ISD op resocialisatiekenmerken kan worden bepaald. Onderzoeksvragen In dit onderzoek worden de volgende onderzoeksvragen beantwoord: 1 In hoeverre is de ISD-maatregel effectief in het reduceren van recidiveprevalentie en -frequentie onder de uitstromers in de periode 2007 tot en met 2014? 2 Wat is het incapacitatie-effect van de ISD-maatregel in termen van strafzaken voor verblijven geëindigd in de periode 2007 tot en met 2016 en zijn er verschil-len over de tijd? 3 Welke verschillen zijn er in recidive tussen uitstromers voor en uitstromers na 2009-2010? 4 Verschilt het effect op recidive naar kenmerken van de ISD’ers uitgestroomd in de periode 2011 tot en met 2014? 5 Is het mogelijk de samenhang van de ISD-maatregel met resocialisatiekenmer-ken, zoals werk, inkomen, en schulden te onderzoeken? 6 Recidiveren ISD’ers die forensische zorg hebben gehad minder dan ISD’ers die geen forensische zorg hebben gehad? Om effecten op uitkomstmaten na afronding van de maatregel te kunnen schatten is enige observatietijd nodig. Daarom hebben de onderzoeksvragen die betrekking hebben op recidive of resocialisatiekenmerken betrekking op cohorten uitgestroomd tot en met 2014. Bij het bepalen van het incapacitatie-effect gaat het om gedrag tij-dens de uitvoering van de maatregel waardoor dit kan worden geschat voor cohor-ten uitgestroomd tot en met 2016.
... La ricerca del primo lavoro dopo il conseguimento del diploma di dottorato, sopra esaminata con un'analisi di tipo meramente descrittivo, è stata approfondita anche con un approccio analitico basato sulla stima delle funzioni di sopravvivenza (Blossfeld et al, 1995). ...
... v pozdějším věku. "Objektivní" přístup k "analýze historie životních událostí" (Blossfeld a Rohwer 1995) by ovšem zacházel se socializačním procesem jako s černou skříňkou. Především v retrospektivních modelech, kde nelze shromáždit subjektivní data týkající se postojů, interpretací nebo hodnotových orientací příslušníků kohorty, není možné vyhovět Mannheimovu požadavku rekonstrukce "stratifikace zkušenosti" (Erhebungsschichtung) jako příležitostní struktury zkušeností sdílených generačním místem. ...
Article
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Text rozvíjí diskurzivně-pragmatický koncept Mannheimovy teorie generace, především jeho myšlenku generace jako skutečnosti, která zdůrazňuje kolektivní kognitivní pozadí neboli horizont generace. Autor rovněž rozebírá vznik tohoto kognitivního pozadí v závislosti na souběžném výskytu různých časových hledisek, jako jsou biografický, historický a generační čas. K vysvětlení diskurzivních praktik generací jsou představeny koncepty „historického času“ (Robinson), „historické sémanitky“ (Luhmann) a „kulturních okruhů“. Autor tak nabízí chápání „problému generace“, které lze využít k empirickému zkoumání tohoto tématu za pomoci interpretativních a rekonstruktivních výzkumných metod.
... Zahrnutí vlivu historických okolností na utváření životního běhu zpřesňuje kauzální vysvětlování při jejich analýze. Vliv umístění v čase a prostoru na sebe může vzít podobu periodního či kohortního efektu (Blossfeld a Rohwer 2002). Periodní efekt vzniká důsledkem historické události, která zasáhla životy všech členů dané společnosti, bez ohledu na jejich věk. ...
Article
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V 60. letech 20. století se v euroamerickém sociálněvědném kontextu vynořuje koncept životního běhu. Na jeho základě pak začínají být individuální životy zkoumány v jejich celistvosti, tedy od narození po stáří, jako dynamické prvky sociální struktury, které jsou výslednicí vzájemných interakcí mezi jedincem a společností, reprezentovanou jak individuálními sociálními sítěmi, tak celospolečenským institucionálním rámcem, který je primárně odvozen od hospodářské produkce. Díky úzké provázanosti životního běhu s institucionálními podmínkami konkrétní země, a to zvláště na evropském kontinentu, se s jejich proměnou mění i podoba životního běhu. Nicméně nejde o proces jednoduchý a přímočarý, nýbrž díky mnohovrstevnatosti životního běhu o změnu velmi komplexní a z hlediska vysvětlení složitou. Předkládaná stať si klade za cíl představit tuto teoretickou perspektivu české odborné veřejnosti. Nejprve krátce zachycuje genezi pojmu životního běhu v sociálních vědách. Následně diskutuje skutečnost, že termín životní běh je často nereflektovaně užíván minimálně na třech různých rovinách – jako paradigma, jako analytický koncept a jako označení sociální instituce. Identifikované linie významů jsou pak dále upřesněny z hlediska jejich definice, teoretické role, metodologických implikací a v případě životního běhu-instituce jsou diskutovány i jeho proměny v post-industriálních společnostech.
... Pokročilejší metody sběru a analýzy longitudinálních dat vztahujících se k životnímu běhu různých věkových kohort (Ryder 1965) usnadnily analýzu vlivu životních událostí i studie časové dynamiky a forem sociální diferenciace biografií v kontextu historického času, času, v němž žije daná kohorta, i času jednotlivce. S rostoucím počtem longitudinálních studií se stal přístup založený na kohortách a působení historických událostí, rekonstruující kontinuitu a změnu životního běhu na údajích získaných z panelových výzkumů, také hnací silou zkoumání běhu života na mezinárodní úrovni (Blossfeld a Rohwer 1995, Moen a Erickson 1995, Allmendinger a Hinz 1998, Shavit a Müller 1998. Zdá se, že tento přístup bude velmi přínosný v analýze sociální změny, protože umožňuje ve velkém měřítku srovnávat kohorty v různých společnostech, zemích a oblastech (Heinz 2001). ...
Article
Autoři se ve svém článku zaměřují na zkoumání životního běhu a s tím související společenské změny. Poukazují na rychlé společenské změny v posledních desetiletích. Životní běh představuje hlavní sféru integrace jednotlivce do společnosti, ale i hlavní sféru napětí mezi nimi. Rozvoj osobnosti se stává jak projektem, tak odrazem společnosti a společenských požadavků. S postupující modernizací se nejenom v Severní Americe, ale také v Evropě uspořádání životního běhu stává stále dynamičtějším, méně standardizovaným a více v režii jedince samotného. Analýza moderního životního běhu se proto snaží zjistit, do jaké míry ztratily biografie své determinující rámce, mezi něž patřil sociální původ, gender, věk a etnická příslušnost, a zdůrazňuje, jak se utváření prostřednictvím strukturálních sil přesunuje k sociálním procesům vyjednávání mezi jednotlivcem, sociálními sítěmi, strukturami příležitostí a institucemi.
... Often, however, we only look at single, discrete changes (i.e. moving from a family home to a hostel by employing event history models) (Blossfeld & Rohwer, 2002). In such a framework, the transition rate of moving from one state to another is modelled as being associated with other variables (i.e. the existence of family/domestic violence). ...
Book
“This book uses diverse methods in a range of different contexts to research a pressing problem of our time – how to support the wellbeing of the elderly. It is essential reading for anyone working in this field.” -- Paul Dalziel, Professor of Economics, Lincoln University, New Zealand. How can we be happier, healthier and more satisfied in life? This edited collection examines various dimensions of wellbeing among older people, including its measurement; social, environmental and economic determinants; and how research can be translated into policy to improve quality of life for older people. With an increasingly ageing population across countries and an increasing population of older adults, there is growing interest in improving older people’s ability to live healthily and happily. With a focus on retirement and aged care, this book is important reading for those interested in Welfare Economics, Health Economics and Development. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill is an Associate Professor and Principal Research Fellow with the School of Economics, Finance & Marketing at RMIT University, Australia. He holds a PhD in Economics from Monash University. His inter- disciplinary research focuses on development economics, addictive behavior, ethnic diversity, wellbeing, and other issues related to sociology, health and economics. He has experience working on consultancy projects for various policy agencies and international development organizations. Lisa Farrell is Professor and Deputy Dean (Research and Innovation) in the School of Economics, Finance and Marketing at RMIT University, Australia. Her research field is in the area of applied microeconomics, with a particular focus on important contemporary social issues such as subjective wellbeing, decision making under uncertainty and lifestyle choice behaviours. Samuelson Appau is Lecturer in Marketing in the School of Economics, Finance and Marketing at RMIT University, Australia. His research focuses on how factors such as poverty, religion and social processes and structures impact consumer wellbeing.
... Often, however, we only look at single, discrete changes (i.e. moving from a family home to a hostel by employing event history models) (Blossfeld & Rohwer, 2002). In such a framework, the transition rate of moving from one state to another is modelled as being associated with other variables (i.e. the existence of family/domestic violence). ...
Chapter
In this concluding chapter, the authors reflect on the chapters of the book, Measuring, Understanding and Improving Wellbeing Among Older People, and provide critical discussions on how policy aimed at improving the wellbeing of older people can be more effective. The authors examine the role of discourses of ageism in scientific and popular discourse and how these discourses can negatively influence and affect even well-intended policies and interventions. They further advocate for policies and interventions aimed at improving the wellbeing of older people to adopt an intersectionality lens to better capture disadvantages older people may have due to various vulnerable social identities.
... Often, however, we only look at single, discrete changes (i.e. moving from a family home to a hostel by employing event history models) (Blossfeld & Rohwer, 2002). In such a framework, the transition rate of moving from one state to another is modelled as being associated with other variables (i.e. the existence of family/domestic violence). ...
Chapter
This chapter examines the discourse on the relationship between culture and wellbeing of elderly persons, based on ethnographic study of accused witches in northern Ghana. The authors find that elderly people are mostly accused of witchcraft and are violently banished from their communities to live in witch camps; this has serious negative impacts on their wellbeing. The chapter therefore problematizes and examines the aspects of cultural practices and discourses that legitimize such ill-treatment of elderly persons. The authors also discuss implications for policy, government and other agencies working with the elderly to improve their wellbeing.
... For estimating life expectancies, the exponential model is not suitable-models are needed that allow transition hazards to change with age. The Gompertz model is such a model and it is often used to describe morbidity and mortality; see, for example, Mueller et al. (1995), Hougaard (2000), and Blossfeld and Rohwer (2002). ...
Article
Background and objective: There is increasing interest in multi-state modelling of health-related stochastic processes. Given a fitted multi-state model with one death state, it is possible to estimate state-specific and marginal life expectancies. This paper introduces methods and new software for computing these expectancies. Methods: The definition of state-specific life expectancy given current age is an extension of mean survival in standard survival analysis. The computation involves the estimated parameters of a fitted multi-state model, and numerical integration. The new R package elect provides user-friendly functions to do the computation in the R software. Results: The estimation of life expectancies is explained and illustrated using the elect package. Functions are presented to explore the data, to estimate the life expectancies, and to present results. Conclusions: State-specific life expectancies provide a communicable representation of health-related processes. The availability and explanation of the elect package will help researchers to compute life expectancies and to present their findings in an assessable way.
... However, such snapshots are not ideal for comparing change in retention rates over time or across distinct groups. Instead, labor market analysts interested in learning about change in retention over time, or differences across groups, employ life-table and time-to-event analysis methods for studying departure (or attrition) (Blossfeld & Rohwer, 2002). Such methods facilitate a more complete picture of longitudinal outcomes and allow mediating factors to be controlled. ...
Article
National data indicate that 50% of assistant professors leave a School of Medicine (SOM) within eight years of hire. At-risk for attrition in some studies are women, racial/ethnic underrepresented minorities (URM), and clinical faculty. Retention of faculty is not adequately studied in the Southwestern US, where at-risk faculty constitute the majority group. The study hypothesized that at-risk faculty have lower retention rates than those not at-risk. Identification of factors predicting retention of at-risk faculty may help institutions devise novel and targeted retention strategies. Prospective time to event analyses studied assistant professors hired at the University of New Mexico's (UNM) SOM from 2008-2019. Eight factors, measured at the time of hire, included: rank, race/ethnicity, gender, MD degree, academic track, department type, salary, and fiscal year of hire. Univariate analyses included graphical analysis of Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard ratios with years to departure measuring the main event to resignation. 844 full-time junior faculty included 50% women, 81% physicians, 42% clinician educators, and 18% racial/ethnic URM. Compared to non-Hispanic Whites, Black faculty (HR = 2.24, 1.25-4.03) and faculty with non-US degree (1.53, 1.19-1.94) had a higher risk of leaving. Faculty in clinician educator (2.01, 1.06-3.82) or visiting research tracks (2.41, 1.20-4.84) both had higher risk of leaving than tenure track faculty. Although URM faculty did not have an overall higher risk of departure, male faculty had higher risk of leaving than women when they are URM or unknown-URM status. In our analysis of junior faculty, we showed that faculty who were Black, had an international education, and in clinician educator or visiting research tracks were at greater risk of leaving, but women and Hispanic faculty had similar retention rates as their respective counterparts at UNM SOM. The differential retention rates among several at-risk subgroups of junior faculty may indicate the need to refocus the existing diversity and faculty development programs at UNM SOM.
... We use discrete-time event history analysis to test the hypotheses. This is an appropriate technique for the investigation of causal relationships (Granger causality) in a time-related empirical representation of the structure of the causal arguments (Blossfeld and Rohwer, 2002). The discrete-time event history analysis has been used in previous research to study unemployment (Ciucă and Matei, 2011) but it has not been applied to the analysis of the impact of self-esteem on unemployment. ...
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The paper analyses whether people with low self-esteem are more likely to become unemployed than those with high self-esteem, and whether gender plays a moderating role in the relationship between self-esteem and becoming unemployed. The outcomes of a piecewise constant exponential model confirms our assumptions. Low self-esteem is highly significant in predicting the probability of becoming unemployed for women but not for men. However, low self-esteem has an effect on the chance of becoming unemployed regardless of gender for people in higher skills occupations.
... As indicated by the bidirectional arrows between the birth and union blocks, we also model the interrelationships of parenthood and partnership processes as theorised in section 3.1. Hence, we define -assuming conditional independence of the processes (Blossfeld and Rohwer 2002) -all transitions between birth and union states to be dependent on duration, age of the individual, birth cohort, and detailed combinations of current and past unions and births. The results for the simulated family life trajectories can thus be "interpreted as cohort life table indicators coming from a fairly large age-, duration-and rank-specific multi-state life table" (cf. ...
... The transition probability is defined as the log-odds for the conditional probability of dropping out at time t i . Since the transition probability depends on the process time (i.e., the duration in training that has already passed), a piecewise-constant modelling strategy is used, where the transition probability is assumed to be constant only within particular time intervals (Blossfeld and Rohwer, 2002). To map this, controls for process time intervals are included (see section on 'Control variables'). ...
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This study investigates the relevance of career compromises (i.e. the discrepancy between expected and attained training position) for dropping out from vocational education and training (VET), focusing on compromises in terms of field of work, social status and gender type. Moreover, it examines whether apprentices’ enjoyment of training ex-plains this association. Using longitudinal data on 5,600 apprentices from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS, Starting Cohort 4), the results of discrete event history models show that all types of compromises are crucial for VET dropout, but especially compromises regarding field of work and downward discrepancies in gender type. Furthermore, the link between compromises and VET dropout is partly mediated by apprentices’ enjoyment of training, which itself is highly correlated with dropping out. These findings draw attention to the role of pre-entry VET policies, such as career counselling, in minimising the incidence of career compromises.
... De tweede toets, de Tarone-Waretoets (Tarone & Ware, 1997), is ook net iets gevoeliger voor verschillen aan het begin van de curve, maar in mindere mate dan de Wilcoxontoets, waardoor de Tarone-Waretoets (impliciet) ook gevoeliger is voor verschillen in het midden. De derde toets, de logranktoets (Blossfeld & Rohwer, 2002), is vooral gevoelig voor verschillen aan het einde van de survivalcurve. Zoals eerder beschreven is de significantietoets echter gevoelig voor de groepsgrootte: bij een grote groep is een verschil snel statistisch significant. ...
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This study found no evidence to support the effectiveness of the BORG training programme in terms of recidivism among perpetrators of intimate partner violence. In accordance with and in supplement to previous studies on the BORG training programme, various problems and barriers in the execution of the programme have been identified. For example, the programme does not appear to be reaching the intended target group, the set objectives do not seem feasible and are not formulated in SMART terms, participants’ partners are insufficiently involved in the programme, the content of the programme is insufficiently based on evidence-based techniques and on a robust comprehensive theoretical framework, and there is insufficient nationwide management and control of the execution of the programme. These problems, however, provide starting points for the improvement of the BORG training programme, which may make the programme effective after all. In addition, a substantial percentage of participants seems positive about the training programme. Furthermore, the BORG training programme could potentially be used at an early stage for a large group of perpetrators (couples) of intimate partner violence, given that the Probation and Parole Service is already involved by the police in any arrests due to domestic violence. By devoting attention to the aforementioned problems identified in this study within the planned revision of the BORG training programme, and through the establishment of better framework conditions for an integrated, cross-domain, system-oriented approach to domestic violence by the Ministry of Justice and Security and the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport, an effective intervention could be created that would contribute to reducing intimate partner violence in society.
... What we actually have is a history of birth events for each woman, or event history data. There is a branch of methodology designed to deal precisely with this data type: event history analysis (EHA) (Allison, 1984;Blossfeld and Rohwer, 2002). ...
Thesis
Fertility projections are a key determinant of population forecasts, which are widely used by government policymakers and planners. They are also vital to anticipate demand for maternity and childcare services, as well as school places and housing. As such, models that can generate plausible fertility forecasts with appropriate uncertainty are in high demand. To this end, in this thesis we develop two distinct Bayesian fertility projection models, using multiple data sources and state-of-the-art computational methodology. In the first approach we take an international perspective, working with population-level data indexed by age and cohort from the Human Fertility Database. In keeping with the recent literature, we propose an intuitive and transparent hierarchical Bayesian model which borrows strength across ages and cohorts. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods, we obtain forecasts for 30 countries. Quantitative assessment of the predictive accuracy using scoring rules indicates that our model predicts at a comparable level to that of the best-performing models in the current literature overall, with stronger performance for countries without a recent structural shift. Our findings support the position of hierarchical Bayesian modelling at the forefront of population forecasting methods. Our second approach focuses on England and Wales, modelling individual-level data in the form of fertility histories and additional information collected from 18,218 women interviewed in Understanding Society. We progress the discrete-time event history analysis literature in this context by applying the smooth, flexible framework of generalized additive models (GAMs). Through fitting parity-specific logistic GAMs to the survey data, we learn about the effects of age, cohort, time since last birth and qualification on fertility. We then develop our chosen GAMs into a Bayesian projection model incorporating population-level data. Our innovative integration method enables assessment of forecast sensitivity in relation to the balance of the two datasets, thus making important advances in statistical methodology.
... Since risk and treatment did not meet this assumption, we applied the extended Cox regression model [21], which not only analyses the effect of covariates on the risk of dying but also allows for the modelling of the time-dependent effect of risk and treatment covariates. In this way, if the value of the hazard ratio associated to the time-dependent variable is higher than 1, it means that the effect of the corresponding covariate on the risk of dying increases with time. ...
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Objectives: 1) to find out the distribution of prostate cancer by risk of progression; 2) to determine the cause-specific survival by risk of progression in prostate cancer; 3) to identify the factors associated with the risk of dying from this cancer. Methods: Incident prostate cancer cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2011 were identified through the Mallorca Cancer Registry. Inclusion criteria: invasive cases with code C61.9 and any histology. Cases identified exclusively through death certificate were excluded. We collected: age; date and method of diagnosis; date of follow-up or death; T, N, M and stage according to the TNM 7th edition; Gleason score; PSA; histology according to the ICD-O 3rd edition 6 ; comorbidities and treatments. We calculated risk in 4 categories: low, medium, high and very high. End point of follow-up was 31 December 2014. Multiple imputation (MI) was performed to estimate cases with unknown risk of progression. Survival analysis was performed using the actuarial and Kaplan-Meier methods, as well as the Cox regression model. Results: We identified 2921 cases. After MI, 9.5% had low risk, 24.9% medium risk, 42.7% high risk and 22.9% very high risk. Five years after diagnosis, survival after MI was 89% globally, that being 100% for low risk cases, 96% for medium risk, 93% for high risk and 69% for very high risk. Cases with histology other than adenocarcinoma, with high and, especially, very high risk of progression, as well as with systemic, mixed and observation/unspecified treatments have worse prognosis. Treatment showed a strong relationship with age and life expectancy. Conclusions: Risk of progression and treatment were the main variables associated to survival in prostate cancer.
... We modelled the intensity of forming a union or conceiving the first child by using a piecewise constant exponential model (Blossfeld and Rohwer 2002). We assumed the effect of age to be constant over single years of age in order to achieve maximum flexibility. ...
... The above (and many other) complex systems are important. Because of this, their dynamics are studied by many research groups [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. Characteristic feature of the most complex systems is their non-linearity. ...
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We discuss the application of the Simple Equations Method (SEsM) for obtaining exact solutions of non-linear differential equations to several cases of equations containing non-polynomial non-linearity. The main idea of the study is to use an appropriate transformation at Step (1.) of SEsM. This transformation has to convert the non-polynomial non- linearity to polynomial non-linearity. Then, an appropriate solution is constructed. This solution is a composite function of solutions of more simple equations. The application of the solution reduces the differential equation to a system of non-linear algebraic equations. We list 10 possible appropriate transformations. Two examples for the application of the methodology are presented. In the first example, we obtain kink and anti- kink solutions of the solved equation. The second example illustrates another point of the study. The point is as follows. In some cases, the simple equations used in SEsM do not have solutions expressed by elementary functions or by the frequently used special functions. In such cases, we can use a special function, which is the solution of an appropriate ordinary differential equation, containing polynomial non-linearity. Specific cases of the use of this function are presented in the second example.
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Extracting patterns from a complex real-life dataset and drawing inferences, thereafter, are becoming part and parcel in various areas of research during the past two decades. Unsupervised machine learning is a type of self-organized learning, which helps to find previously unknown patterns in the real-life dataset without pre-existing labels. However, analysing, understating and identifying the typical sequential patterns of events in complex event history data and the ability to utilize this retrieved knowledge create a significant impact on many aspects of individual life course. This paper first introduces the sequence analysis for analysing the adulthood and family formation sequences to better understand the evolution, features and typologies of various complex life course processes. Not only the ordering of sequences, grouping these existing sequential patterns into clusters is also challenging in life course analysis. Modern tools of unsupervised machine learning are an appropriate choice to analyse the sequences of important life course trajectories and in particular, when there is unobserved heterogeneity present in the data. The present article uses life course retrospective data of Indian youths that give adulthood transition trajectories from six Indian states. We estimate and interpret the similarity and distances between sequences using the optimal matching approach. Cluster analysis has been used in order to produce prominent typologies of the adulthood event sequence trajectories. To conclude, unsupervised learning of the sampled sequences of adulthood transitions considered herein has successfully demonstrated its potential usefulness in displaying and summarizing complex event history data into meaningful and interpretable dimensions to meet new challenges and to build policy framework for the adults of a nation.
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In this chapter we analyze factors associated with female sterilization in Brazil. We extend earlier analyses by adding a variable to the survival models that captures the amount of time of exposure to the risk of sterilization. We use data from the 2006 Brazilian National Survey on Demography and Health of Children and Women (PNDS). Our results are of special significance because, among other things, they aid our understanding of Brazil’s remarkable decline in fertility from a total fertility rate of 6.3 children per woman in 1960 to 1.9 children per woman in 2010, a fertility rate below the replacement level (IBGE 2012). The increased use of modern contraception is a major factor associated with the fertility decline (Amorim et al. 2008; Berquó et al. 2008; Cavenaghi and Alves 2009; Leone and Hinde 2005; Perpétuo 1998; Perpétuo and Wajnman 2003; Perpétuo and Wong 2009). Of special interest is the fact that the two main contraceptive methods in Brazil are female sterilization and oral contraception (Janowitz et al. 1985; Perpétuo and Wong 2009; Potter 1999; Vieira 2007).
Policy outcomes in parliamentary systems can be affected by the characteristics of those appointed to executive positions. Research into the survival of ministerial appointments emphasise institutional factors, personal, and professional characteristics. There is, however, less attention paid to how the specific features of a portfolio affect ministerial survival. I address this gap by examining Australian Attorneys-General, to highlight how the duration of ministerial appointments depends on the features of the position. I find that a specific understanding of a portfolio can affect ministerial survival and that the survival of Australian Attorneys-General is shaped by the specifics of the portfolio.
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This chapter discusses the two sociological concepts for capturing collective life courses: cohort and generation. First, the cohort concept, which is central to capturing social change, is discussed. Solving the identification problem inherent in the cohort approach ultimately leads to dynamic, multidimensional, and multilevel life course research. In the second part of the chapter, the theoretically more presuppositional generation concept is presented and its potential for life course research is discussed.
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In this chapter, the authors use the Journeys Home longitudinal data set to examine the relationship between housing insecurity and wellbeing. Using information on accommodation type, start date and duration of accommodation spells, the authors construct a sequence spanning some 2.5 years for 369 individuals, where similar sequences are grouped for analysis of individuals’ characteristics. The authors present a unique perspective with findings that are of significance for the many countries struggling with homelessness and ageing populations.
Chapter
Der Zusammenhang zwischen Familie und Lebensverlauf erschließt sich am besten, wenn wir die von der Geburt bis ins hohe Alter anzutreffenden Formen des Zusammenlebens betrachten. Der Beginn und das Ende unterschiedlicher Lebensphasen mit und ohne Eltern, Partnern oder Kindern zeigt die Dynamik der Abfolge von Lebensformen. Für ein Verständnis gesellschaftlichen Wandels als auch für ein Verständnis individuellen Verhaltens ist es sinnvoll eine Makro- und eine Mikroperspektive zu unterscheiden. Auf der gesellschaftlichen Ebene steht die Frage nach den Bevölkerungszusammenhängen im Mittelpunkt, die individuelle Mikrobetrachtung fragt nach der Dynamik der Abfolge einzelner Phasen und theoretisch nach deren Begründung durch individuelle Entscheidungen. Der Zusammenhang zwischen Familie und Lebensverlauf erschließt sich durch beide Perspektiven.
Article
Gompertz distribution was proposed by Gompertz in 1825 and he showed that age specific mortality rates increase exponentially with age over much of adult life span. In this paper, we introduce a new generalization of Gompertz distribution and study its properties. Characterizations of the new distribution are obtained. The expressions for moments, quantile function and distribution of order statistics are derived and limiting behaviour of sample minima is studied. The stochastic ordering property of the new distribution is established. The unknown parameters of the distribution are estimated using maximum likelihood method, method of least squares, weighted least squares, and Cramer-von-Mises method. Simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of estimates. Autoregressive time series model with the generalized Gompertz distribution as marginal is developed. The proposed model is fitted to two real data sets to show the flexibility of the model.
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Gegenstand dieses Artikels bilden Implikationen der Zeitlichkeit des Handelns und daraus resultierende methodische Konsequenzen für den Bereich medienpädagogischer Forschung. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf der Analyse von Verläufen und Prozessen in zeitlicher Perspektive. Den Ausgangspunkt dieses Artikels bildet die These, dass zeitliche Verläufe und Prozesse in der gegenwärtigen quantitativen medienpädagogischen Forschung keine angemessene Berücksichtigung finden, und die Analyse von Verlaufsdaten in der Forschungspraxis weit hinter den Erkenntnismöglichkeiten zurück bleibt. Diese These wird am Beispiel der Analyse von Nutzungsprozessen in Online-Umgebungen entfaltet. Mit der Sequenzanalyse wird eine quantitative Methode zur Analyse von Verlaufsdaten erläutert und von der Methode der Ereignisanalyse abgegrenzt. Methoden der Analyse zeitlicher Verläufe Die Berücksichtigung der Zeitlichkeit des Handelns stellt eine forschungsmethodische Herausforderung dar, die bislang vor allem in der quantitativen medienpädagogischen und erziehungswissenschaftlichen Forschung keine angemessene Berücksichtigung findet: Die Analyse von Verlaufsdaten bleibt in der medienpädagogischen und erziehungswissenschaftlichen Forschungspraxis hinter den Erkenntnispotentialen zurück. Dies ist umso erstaunlicher, als mit zentralen Begriffen wie "Bildung", "Lernen", "Erziehen" nicht nur auf Resultate rekurriert wird, sondern immer auch auf Prozesse und Verläufe, die in der Zeit stattfinden. Gleiches gilt für die Begriffe "Navigation", "Interaktion", "Kooperation" und "E-Learning". Grundlegende Anknüpfungspunkte pädagogischen und didaktischen Handelns sind aber nicht nur Ergebnisse von Lernprozessen, sondern immer auch die Prozesse selbst, sowie die komplexe Relation von Lernprozess und Lernergebnis. Aus medienpädagogischer Perspektive macht es z.B. einen entscheidenden Unterschied, ob das Thema "Werbung in Computerspielen" durch handlungsorientierte Methoden oder durch instruktionale Formate bearbeitet wird.
Article
The rise of the Big Data paradigm has made it more feasible to track how personal networks evolve on social media, where auto-generated contact records and fine-grained temporal data sequences help capture how and when interpersonal ties and contacts change their roles. Using a sample of matched survey data and social media records, we investigated the mechanisms by which indirect contacts ("degree-2 alters") transform into direct contacts ("degree-1 alters") from a Facebook user's (ego's) point of view. To highlight the temporal sequences, we assigned different roles to the same alters depending on how each of them is connected with ego at different periods of time. Multilevel event history analyses pinpoint several online actions and network features of ego, degree-1 alters, and degree-2 alters, as the key factors that contribute to the transformation from indirect contacts into direct contacts.
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Many processes such as motion of substances in technological systems or motion of migrants can be modelled by a flow of a substance in a channel of network. It can happen however that two substances flow in the same channel of network. In addition the substances may react and then the question arises about the distribution of the amounts of the substances in the nodes of the channel. We study the case of stationary flow of the substances and present analytical relationships for the distributions of the substances in the nodes of the channel.
Thesis
How three-quarters of the Jews of France survived the Holocaust has long been a subject of debate between historians. After the war, top Vichy officials sought to frame their participation in the persecution of the Jews in the best light possible and were amongst the first to articulate what came to be known as the “shield thesis.” The Vichy Regime, so the argument went, had served as a shield against the worst of the German demands regarding the Jews, which had the happy result of saving thousands of them—and, in particular, those of French origin—from destruction. This thesis was subsequently advanced by some of the most prominent scholars in the field, who tended to rally around one of its central tenets: the “French-foreign dichotomy,” the argument according to which the Vichy authorities pragmatically sacrificed the foreign Jews in order to preserve the French Israélites. This dissertation challenges what has become the framework for understanding the Holocaust in France, by examining the lives of the Jews of a small, rural department in south-east France through the prism of quantitative prosopography. It argues that, through its repeated appeals to the “French-foreign dichotomy,” the historiography has overemphasized one factor for explaining the fate of the Jews in France during the war, by bringing together very different individuals into two artificially homogeneous groups, thereby inadvertently obscuring other, more important differences between them. This dissertation shows that there was, indeed, a hierarchy between the Vauclusian Jews, but not one narrowly defined by nationality or country of origin. This hierarchy, moreover, evolved throughout the war and was at times one of persecution or of privilege. In the end, it was this hierarchy—underpinned by a confluence of personal, geographical and temporal forces—that enabled the majority of the 2,826 Jews of the Vaucluse to make it through the war intact.
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Because time is a key determinant of entrepreneurial decision making, time-to-event models are ubiquitous in entrepreneurship. Widespread econometric misconception, however, may cause complicated biases in existing studies. The reason is spurious duration dependency, a complicated form of endogeneity caused by unobserved heterogeneity, which is particularly pronounced in entrepreneurship data. This article discusses the endogeneity problem and methods to ‘debias’ time-to-event models in entrepreneurship. Simulations and empirical evidence indicate that only the frailty approach yields consistently unbiased parameter estimates. An application to start-up firms' time-to-funding shows that other methods lead to dramatic biases. Therefore, this article advocates a paradigm shift in the modeling of time variables in entrepreneurship.
Article
The Latin American model of vocational education has been widely portrayed as a homegrown success story, particularly by scholars and stakeholders who are aware of the region’s skill deficits, wary of alien solutions, and suspicious of institutional transfers more generally. Is the Latin American model really homegrown? I use a combination of qualitative and quantitative data to trace the model’s mores and methods not to the New World but to Central Europe and go on to identify three different transmission paths in the 20th century: imitation by Latin Americans of German origin, descent, and/or training in the run-up to World War II; propagation by West German attachés and advisors in an effort to rehabilitate their country’s image in the wake of the war; and adaptation by local employers and policymakers—who received additional support from Germany—at the turn of the last century. The results suggest that institutional importation is less a discrete event or outcome to be avoided than an ongoing process that, first, entails translation, adaptation, and at times obfuscation by importers as well as exporters; and, second, is facilitated by immigrants, their descendants, and diplomats in transnational contact zones.
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Viele sozialwissenschaftliche Fragestellungen beziehen sich auf binäre abhängige Variablen. Mit Hinblick auf die Analyse solcher Variablen stellt dieser Beitrag die Grundlagen eines der gängigsten nicht linearen Wahrscheinlichkeitsmodelle dar, der logistischen Regressionsanalyse. Er diskutiert sie im Kontrast zum linearen Wahrscheinlichkeitsmodell. Dabei bezieht sich die Einführung nicht auf die Schätzung und die mathematisch-statistischen Hintergründe, sondern auf die Anwendung in den Sozialwissenschaften. Besonderes Augenmerk liegt auf der Interpretation der Ergebnisse sowie auf den Herausforderungen hierin, die sich durch die nicht lineare Modellierung von Wahrscheinlichkeiten ergeben. Das Analyseverfahren wird exemplarisch dargestellt anhand einer Replikation einer veröffentlichten Studie zur Abhängigkeit der Wahlteilnahme von der subjektiven Gesundheit auf Basis der Deutschen Teilstichprobe des European Social Survey.
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RESUME Alors que le baby-boom est connu bien au-delà de la communauté scientifique, ses causes ne font toujours pas consensus parmi les chercheurs. De nouvelles approches ont émergé ces dernières années, les unes qualitatives, les autres quantitatives. Dans cet article, nous présentons un design de recherche qui articule ces types de données, leurs modes de collecte et leurs analyses. Nous nous.basons sur un échantillon de calendriers de vie collectés parmi les résidents suisses de 65 ans et plus, qui a été complété pour un sous-échantillon de récits de vie. Demander à des personnes âgées de rapporter leur vie implique des oublis (volontaires ou non), des erreurs ou approximations. Nous en discutons les implications en matière de qualité, de validité et de représentativité des données. L'approche du parcours de vie offre le cadre néces-saire pour approcher la complexité des trajectoires individuelles, pour situer les biographies dans des contextes qui évoluent et pour intégrer les matériaux objectifs et subjectifs. Deux types de méthodes ' statistiques (exploratoire et confirmatoire) sont ensuite combinées avec le jugement rétrospectif des indi-vidus sur leurs trajectoires. ABSTRACT A biographical mixed method to renew the study of the Baby boom While the baby boom is well known, even beyond the scientific community, there is no consensus about its explanation. New avenues for research have recently emerged, using a qualitative or a quantitative approach. ln this paper, we presenta research design thatarticulatesdata, datacollection and analyses. We use a sample of life calendars collected among Swiss residents aged 65 and over, which have been complemented with life histories for a sub-sample. Asking older adults to tell the story of their life necessarily implies information gaps (involuntary or voluntary), mistakes or approximations. We discuss the implications in terms of data quality, data validation and representativeness of the sample..The life course approach offers the framework needed to deal with the complexity of individual trajectories, to locate biographies in their evolving context, and to integrate objective and subjective material. Two statistical perspectives (exploratory and confirmatory) have been applied and combined with the individualassess-ment of their life trajectories.
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Health and social care systems throughout the world are facing increasing demands on their limited resources. An ageing population and an increase in the number of people with long term conditions are placing considerable strain on societies, national health services and individuals, and it is anticipated that this will become more pronounced in the future. In Ireland also, the prevalence of long term conditions is impacting significantly upon the delivery of health and social care services, and, it is estimated that there will be a critical increase in the numbers of people with long term conditions during the next 30 years. It is essential, therefore, that the efficacy of prevention and management interventions are examined across the continuum of care. The positive impact of self-management programmes on long term conditions has been widely acknowledged across the globe and evidence has shown the vast majority of self-management programmes to have an immediate impact on patient care. A strategically applied person-centred self-management programme empowers people to better manage their long term condition. Consequently this develops a more confident, competent, and health-conscious individual. In recent years, in Donegal, health professionals, voluntary services, patient and family networks have come together and worked collaboratively in redesigning a model of care for the effective management of long term conditions. Self-management support is an essential aspect of this model that will build capacity within the health system and enable evidence-based and person-centred practice changes that generate improved patient outcomes. I am pleased to endorse this report and trust it will become a medium that leads to improved collaborative care between health professionals and individuals with long term conditions.
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Efforts to understand the emergence of an event require our ability to measure and understand the dynamics between time in a state (e.g., being alive or a behavior) and the outcome of the state. Studying the main drivers that affect changes in state over time allows researchers to better understand population dynamics and evolutionary processes. Event history analyses provide a range of theoretical and empirical tools to explore the emergence of an event. Their use is still restricted in ecology; however, they are commonly used in human demography. Event history analysis is a powerful tool for measuring the probability that an event occurs at time t. Here, we provide an introductory guide for ecologists who are interested in exploring event history analyses in their research. In the first part of this article, we outline key concepts in event history analyses and present a decision tree, statistical techniques, and their applications to ecological questions. To introduce practical applications of event history analyses, we provide four detailed tutorials, stemming from observational and longitudinal records of events in mammalian and avian species, along with relevant R scripts. We then explain how to interpret and present results of such analyses. Our results show that event history analyses are useful to quantify the effect of factors on the emergence of events. We conclude by highlighting additional strengths, pitfalls, and limitations researchers should be aware of when using such methods. We foresee the use of event history analyses for ecological studies.
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This review paper is devoted to a brief overview of results and models concerning flows in networks and channels of networks. First of all, we conduct a survey of the literature in several areas of research connected to these flows. Then, we mention certain basic mathematical models of flows in networks that are based on differential equations. We give special attention to several models for flows of substances in channels of networks. For stationary cases of these flows, we present probability distributions connected to the substance in the nodes of the channel for two basic models: the model of a channel with many arms modeled by differential equations and the model of a simple channel with flows of substances modeled by difference equations. The probability distributions obtained contain as specific cases any probability distribution of a discrete random variable that takes values of 0,1,…. We also mention applications of the considered models, such as applications for modeling migration flows. Special attention is given to the connection of the theory of stationary flows in channels of networks and the theory of the growth of random networks.
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In survival analysis, nonparametric and parametric models are commonly used to estimate survival functions. An important limitation of nonparametric methods is that in the construction of survival function estimators, variables which can affect the duration of the period an individual remains in a given state are not taken into account. The use of parametric methods also has some limitations. First of all, problems with finding the analytical form of the distribution curve of survival times take place. The second limitation is the fact that time-dependent covariates cannot be included in a model. These restrictions do not apply to the Cox model considered in this study. In most studies, Cox models are used to evaluate the effects of explanatory variables on a hazard rate. The purpose of this paper is to indicate the possibility of using Cox regression model to determine direct adjusted probabilities of finding a job by the unemployed depending on their individual characteristics in the context of long-term unemployment risk. The study is based on LFS data from 2017 to 2018 for Poland.
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There are two main methods of constructing survival trees. The first method is based on measures of heterogeneity of survival functions in individual nodes, while the second method uses intranodal differentiation determined by the likelihood function or the partial likelihood function as a criterion for the division. The Kaplan–Meier estimator is used to estimate the survival curve for individuals located at terminal nodes. The prediction of survival probabilities for a given individual based on the thus obtained conditional Kaplan–Meier curve does not consider their characteristics, which were omitted in the construction of the divisions and in some cases may lead to conclusions that are too general. Then, the solution may be to use the direct adjusted survival curve, for the construction of which all explanatory variables included in the Cox model are used. In this article, we compare these two survival prediction methods, paying attention to the limitations and advantages of each. The empirical analysis was carried out with the use of data from the 2018 Labor Force Survey for Poland. The economic activity of women around retirement age was examined.KeywordsSurvival treesDirect adjusted survival curvesKaplan–Meier curvesWomen's employment
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