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The era of climate change has introduced unprecedented challenges for global public health, especially visible through the lens of infectious diseases [...]
Citation: Piscitelli, P.; Miani, A.
Climate Change and Infectious
Diseases: Navigating the Intersection
through Innovation and
Interdisciplinary Approaches. Int. J.
Environ. Res. Public Health 2024,21,
314. https://doi.org/
10.3390/ijerph21030314
Received: 27 February 2024
Accepted: 7 March 2024
Published: 8 March 2024
Copyright: © 2024 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
International Journal of
Environmental Research
and Public Health
Editorial
Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: Navigating the
Intersection through Innovation and
Interdisciplinary Approaches
Prisco Piscitelli 1, 2,* and Alessandro Miani 3, *
1Italian Society of Environmental Medicine (SIMA), Viale di Porta Vercellina, 9, 20123 Milan, Italy
2Department of Experimental Medicine, University of Salento, Via Monteroni, 73100 Lecce, Italy
3Environmental Health Research Organization (EHRO), San Diego, CA 92123, USA
*Correspondence: prisco.piscitelli@unisalento.it (P.P.); a.miani@simaitalia.org (A.M.)
The era of climate change has introduced unprecedented challenges for global public
health, especially visible through the lens of infectious diseases [
1
,
2
]. As the planet warms,
the delicate balance between ecosystems and pathogens shifts, leading to the emergence
and re-emergence of infectious diseases. Scientists and researchers must unravel the
intricate dynamics between climate change and infectious diseases due to the urgent need
for integrated research, innovative technologies, and robust public health strategies to
mitigate these risks.
Climate change, as manifested through global warming and shifts in weather patterns,
is reshaping the landscape of public health, particularly for infectious diseases [
3
]. Changes
in temperature and precipitation levels and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather
events have profound implications for the distribution and behavior of disease vectors,
such as mosquitoes, ticks, and rodents [
4
,
5
]. These changes, observable and measurable,
directly influence vectors’ life cycles, breeding patterns, and migration routes, thereby
affecting the transmission dynamics of the diseases that they carry.
Temperature plays a critical role in vector biology, influencing metabolic rates and the
speed of pathogen development within vectors. Increased temperatures can accelerate the
mosquitoes’ life cycles, such as by shortening the time required for a mosquito to develop
from egg to adult, thereby increasing the population density of mosquitoes in a given
area [
3
]. This acceleration also reduces the incubation period of pathogens such as the
malaria parasite (Plasmodium spp.) and the dengue virus within mosquitoes, increasing the
transmission potential [
6
]. Consequently, regions previously deemed too cold for vector
survival and pathogen development now face emerging threats as global temperatures rise.
Precipitation patterns also significantly impact vector-borne disease dynamics [
7
].
Increased rainfall can create ideal breeding sites for mosquitoes through standing water
accumulation, while drought conditions compel both humans and vectors to share dimin-
ishing water sources, increasing contact rates and the disease transmission potential. The
complexity of these interactions underscores the variability in climate change impacts across
different regions and diseases. For example, while some areas may experience a surge
in mosquito populations following heavy rains, others may witness vector populations
reductions due to drought-induced breeding site scarcity [7].
Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and floods, can further exacerbate the
situation by disrupting existing public health infrastructure, creating new breeding grounds
for vectors, and displacing populations, thereby facilitating the spread of infectious diseases.
The aftermath of such events often results in spikes in diseases like malaria, dengue fever,
and cholera, emphasizing the need for robust disaster preparedness and response strategies
that incorporate infectious disease management.
The expansion of mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever, into
new geographical areas starkly illustrates climate change’s impact on infectious disease
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2024,21, 314. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph21030314 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2024,21, 314 2 of 8
patterns [
6
]. As temperatures rise, the geographic range of mosquitoes that carry these
diseases expands, introducing these pathogens to previously unaffected regions and popu-
lations. This shift not only poses a direct threat to public health but also challenges existing
healthcare systems and disease control measures, which may not be equipped to deal with
these emerging threats.
Rainfall pattern changes affect the availability and quality of water, influencing not
only vector-borne diseases but also water-borne diseases such as cholera and leptospirosis.
The interplay between these factors illustrates the complex and multifaceted nature of the
relationship between climate change and infectious diseases, highlighting the urgent need
for interdisciplinary approaches to understand, predict, and mitigate these emerging health
risks.
Environmental photocatalysis, a cutting-edge technology that harnesses light to initiate
chemical reactions, is a vital innovation in the ongoing battle against climate change-
exacerbated pathogen transmission. This approach uses light-activated catalysts, such as
titanium dioxide (TiO
2
) and its composite materials, among the most effective and widely
researched examples. These catalysts can absorb ultraviolet (UV) light and use this energy
to drive chemical reactions to decompose organic pollutants and pathogens present in water
and air, rendering them harmless [
8
16
]. This technology not only promises a sustainable
method for purifying environmental mediums but is also a potent tool for reducing the
vectors of disease that thrive under polluted conditions.
Photocatalysis’ underlying principles depend on the catalytic properties of materi-
als like titanium dioxide. When these materials are exposed to UV light, they generate
electron-hole pairs that can interact with water and oxygen molecules, producing reactive
oxygen species (ROS) [
17
19
]. These ROS, including hydroxyl radicals and superoxide
anions, are highly reactive and can effectively break down various organic compounds and
microorganisms. This reaction does not alter the catalyst, meaning that titanium dioxide
can be used repeatedly without losing its efficacy, making it an environmentally friendly
and cost-effective solution for long-term use.
Regarding public health, environmental photocatalysis has particularly promising
water and air purification applications. For water purification, photocatalytic processes can
degrade harmful pathogens and pollutants, creating safe drinking water and reducing the
risk of waterborne diseases, crucial in areas affected by climate change-induced alterations
in water quality and availability. This technology can be applied in both large-scale water
treatment facilities and small-scale portable water purification systems, making it a flexible
solution for addressing diverse needs and contexts.
For air purification, photocatalytic systems can be integrated into HVAC systems [
20
]
or used in standalone air purifiers to remove airborne pathogens and pollutants, including
volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter [
21
]. This fact is particularly
relevant in urban and industrial areas, where air quality is a significant public health
concern. By reducing airborne pathogen concentrations, photocatalysis is crucial for
preventing the spread of respiratory diseases, countering increased transmission rates
caused by climate change.
Integrating photocatalytic materials into building materials, such as paints and coat-
ings, is an innovative approach to creating self-cleaning and air-purifying surfaces [
17
].
Crucially, nanotechnologies also have the potential to significantly reduce CO
2
emissions
associated with traditional building materials production [
22
], thereby addressing a key
driver of climate change. This application not only creates healthier indoor environments
but also mitigates outdoor pollution, offering a dual benefit in fighting climate-induced
health risks.
Despite its potential, the widespread adoption of environmental photocatalysis faces
challenges, including the need for UV light, limiting its applicability in low-light conditions.
However, ongoing studies are focusing on developing catalysts that operate under visible
light, broadening the scope of this technology’s use.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2024,21, 314 3 of 8
Additionally, optimizing the efficiency, durability, and cost-effectiveness of photocat-
alytic materials will allow for their extensive use in public health applications.
Environmental photocatalysis is a forward-thinking solution that can resolve the inter-
twined challenges of pollution, pathogen transmission, and climate change. By leveraging
the power of light-activated catalysts for water and air purification, this technology is
promising for enhancing environmental health and reducing the disease burden. As re-
search advances and applications expand, environmental photocatalysis could become a
cornerstone of sustainable public health strategies in response to a climate change.
The advent of graphene-based nanomaterials heralds a transformative era in environ-
mental remediation [
23
25
], particularly for mitigating the impacts of climate-sensitive
infectious diseases. Graphene, a single layer of carbon atoms arranged in a two-dimensional
honeycomb lattice, has remarkable properties that make it ideal for purifying water and
air. Its exceptionally high surface area, coupled with its reactivity and conductivity, allows
graphene to efficiently adsorb and breakdown various contaminants, including pathogens,
heavy metals, and organic pollutants.
Graphene-based materials use several mechanisms to purify environmental media. In
water remediation [
25
], these nanomaterials adsorb toxic substances onto their surfaces,
thus removing them from the water. Furthermore, modified graphene oxide, with func-
tional groups attached to its surface, targets specific pollutants through chemical reactions,
degrading or transforming them into less harmful substances. This specificity is crucial for
combatting the varied contaminants that threaten water quality and, consequently, public
health.
In air purification, graphene-based filters capture particulate matter, volatile organic
compounds (VOCs), and pathogens, including viruses and bacteria. The material’s high
conductivity [
26
] means that it can potentially inactivate captured microbes through electri-
cal or thermal processes, adding an extra layer of protection against airborne diseases. This
capability is particularly significant in urban and industrial settings, where air quality is a
persistent concern, and healthcare environments, where preventing the spread of infectious
diseases is vital.
Graphene-based nanomaterials have more benefits than their efficacy at removing
pollutants [
24
]. Their versatility allows for their integration into various platforms, from
standalone water filters and air purifiers to coatings and membranes applicable to existing
infrastructure. This adaptability ensures that graphene-based solutions can be tailored to
specific environmental and public health needs, offering a scalable approach for combatting
climate-sensitive infectious diseases’ spread.
However, despite their promising potential, several challenges must be addressed
before we can fully harness graphene-based nanomaterials’ capabilities in environmental
health. One of the primary concerns is production costs and scalability. While graphene
has exceptional properties, producing it in forms suitable for large-scale environmental
applications is expensive. Research and development efforts are ongoing to identify
cost-effective and sustainable methods for producing graphene and incorporating it into
practical applications.
Another challenge involves understanding the long-term environmental and health
impacts of graphene-based materials [
27
]. As with any nanomaterial, researchers need to
conduct comprehensive studies to assess the potential risks associated with graphene’s
widespread use, including toxicity and environmental persistence [
28
]. Ensuring graphene-
based technologies’ safe deployment requires rigorous testing and regulatory oversight to
prevent unintended consequences.
Developing graphene-based nanomaterials for environmental remediation makes
it easier for us to address the complex challenges posed by climate-sensitive infectious
diseases. By leveraging the unique properties of graphene, we can develop innovative
solutions to purify water and air, thereby reducing pathogen and pollutant transmission. As
we continue to explore the full potential of these nanomaterials, addressing the challenges
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2024,21, 314 4 of 8
of cost, scalability, and safety will be crucial for realizing their promise for environmental
health and disease prevention.
Machine learning algorithms represent a key predictive health innovation, as they
convert vast and complex datasets into actionable insights [
29
]. These advanced compu-
tational tools assess the intricate interplay between climate variables and the dynamics
of infectious disease spread, offering a robust framework for modeling and forecasting
future outbreaks [
30
]. By using data-driven models, researchers and public health offi-
cials can identify emerging of infectious disease patterns and hotspots, facilitating the
implementation of preventative measures and timely interventions [31].
Machine learning learns from historical data, continuously improving its predictive
accuracy over time. Algorithms can analyze trends related to temperature, humidity,
rainfall, and other environmental factors, alongside historical disease incidence rates, to
forecast future outbreaks. This predictive capability is invaluable given that climate change
is altering traditional disease vectors and transmission patterns, making historical data less
indicative of future trends.
One illustrative case study applied machine learning algorithms to predict dengue
fever outbreaks [
32
]. The researchers utilized climate data, including temperature and
precipitation patterns, in conjunction with socio-economic and demographic information,
to identify regions at increased risk of dengue transmission. These models have enabled
public health authorities to more effectively allocate resources, targeting mosquito control
efforts and public health campaigns in high-risk areas before the peak transmission season
begins [33].
Another study used machine learning to forecast the spread of influenza [
34
]. By
analyzing data from a variety of sources, including health records, search engine queries,
and climate information, algorithms were used predict the onset and intensity of flu sea-
sons with remarkable accuracy. This approach improved preparedness among healthcare
providers and the public, enabling vaccinations and other preventive measures to mitigate
the flu season’s impact.
These case studies’ success underscores the transformative potential of integrating
machine learning algorithms into public health planning and response strategies. However,
these tools’ effective application requires high-quality, comprehensive datasets, as well as
interdisciplinary collaboration between epidemiologists, climate scientists, data scientists,
and public health professionals. Together, these experts can refine predictive models,
validate their forecasts against real-world outcomes, and adapt strategies that reflect the
evolving landscape of infectious disease risks.
Machine learning algorithms are also critical for enhancing disease surveillance sys-
tems. By integrating real-time data from a variety of sources, including social media and
electronic health records, these algorithms detect early signs of an outbreak, decreasing
faster response times and potentially saving lives.
The use of machine learning in predictive health is a significant advancement in our
ability to combat infectious diseases in response to climate change. By identifying patterns
and predicting outbreaks, these algorithms are a critical tool for enabling timely public
health interventions. As technology advances and our understanding of the complex
relationship between climate variables and disease spread deepens, integrating machine
learning into public health strategies will become increasingly indispensable.
The intricate relationship between climate change and infectious disease incidence is
significantly influenced not only by direct climatic factors such as temperature and precipi-
tation but also by various non-climate factors. These factors include social vulnerability,
the immune statuses of populations, and the efficacy of vector control efforts [
35
]. Under-
standing the interplay between these elements is vital for the comprehensive assessment
and effective management of infectious disease risks. This nuanced approach acknowl-
edges that climate change’s impact on health is mediated by complex socio-economic and
biological variables that either exacerbate or mitigate disease transmission.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2024,21, 314 5 of 8
Social vulnerability, encompassing the capacity of communities to anticipate, cope
with, respond to, and recover from the health-related impacts of climate change, is critical
in infectious disease dynamics [
36
]. Factors such as poverty, a lack of access to healthcare,
inadequate housing, and high population density can amplify the risk of disease out-
breaks. These conditions often correlate with limited resources being available for disease
surveillance and control, making certain populations more susceptible to infections’ spread
following climatic events like floods or heatwaves. Understanding these vulnerabilities’
distribution can help with tailoring public health interventions to protect the most affected
communities.
Immune status, another crucial non-climate factor, determines the susceptibility of
individuals and populations to infectious diseases. Malnutrition, existing health conditions,
and age are key immune competence determinants. Climate change indirectly influences
these determinants by affecting food security, air quality, and the prevalence of diseases
that compromise immune function. For instance, increased CO
2
levels can lower staple
crops’ nutritional quality, potentially weakening a population’s immunity and increasing
its susceptibility to infections [37].
Vector control efforts, crucial in the fight against diseases like malaria, dengue fever,
and Zika, are directly impacted by climate variables. Warmer temperatures and altered pre-
cipitation patterns can expand vector habitats, necessitating more extensive and sustained
control efforts [
36
]. However, the effectiveness of these efforts is also contingent on non-
climate factors, such as public awareness, community participation, and the availability
of resources for implementing control measures. Strategies sensitive to local climatic and
socio-economic conditions are more likely to reduce disease transmission.
Furthermore, the climate change’s secondary effects, such as natural disasters, present
additional challenges for infectious disease management. Events such as hurricanes, floods,
and droughts can displace populations, creating conditions ripe for disease outbreaks.
Crowded temporary shelters, compromised water and sanitation systems, and disrupted
healthcare services can facilitate the spread of infectious diseases among displaced pop-
ulations. Additionally, the psychological stress associated with these events can weaken
immune responses, further increasing vulnerability to infections.
Understanding the interplay between climate and non-climate factors is, therefore,
not only an academic exercise but also vital for effective public health planning and
interventions. It requires an integrated approach that combines climatic data with socio-
economic and health indicators to accurately predict disease outbreaks and implement
timely measures to mitigate their impact. By considering the full spectrum of factors
influencing disease dynamics, public health authorities can develop more resilient and
adaptive strategies to protect communities affected by changing climates.
A critical examination of interventions designed to mitigate the health risks associated
with climate change must be performed. This intervention would involve conducting a
multifaceted analysis of both the cost-effectiveness and overall efficacy of these programs. A
thorough evaluation process is vital, as it would not only validate the interventions’ success
in real-world settings but also ensure the optimal allocation of resources. Methodologies for
this assessment range from quantitative analyses, such as cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness
studies, to qualitative approaches that consider programmatic adaptability, scalability,
and sustainability. These evaluations provide invaluable insights, helping policymakers
and stakeholders to make informed decisions when implementing and scaling health
interventions in response to climate change.
In assessing cost-effectiveness, analysts compare the intervention’s costs relative to its
health outcomes, typically measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved or infec-
tions averted. This analysis helps us to identify strategies with the greatest health impacts
per unit of investment, an essential consideration in resource-limited scenarios. Program
efficacy, on the other hand, is evaluated through metrics such as reductions in disease inci-
dence, improvements in public health infrastructure, and enhanced community resilience.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2024,21, 314 6 of 8
Longitudinal studies and post-implementation reviews are crucial for understanding these
interventions’ sustained impacts of over time.
However, the complex nature of climate-sensitive health risks necessitate a broader
perspective.
The interaction between environmental changes and public health is influenced by a
myriad of factors, including socio-economic conditions, urbanization patterns, and global
mobility. As such, evaluating interventions requires an interdisciplinary approach that
synthesizes data from diverse fields. Collaboration between epidemiologists, climatologists,
urban planners, and social scientists is crucial to comprehensively assess climate change’s
multifaceted impacts on health and devise effective and equitable strategies.
The urgency of the situation requires a proactive stance, leveraging the latest advance-
ments in empirical research, theoretical modeling, and technological innovation. Digital
health technologies, geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing, and artificial
intelligence (AI) are promising tools for monitoring disease vectors, predicting outbreaks,
and optimizing resource deployment. These innovations, coupled with traditional public
health measures and community engagement, are the cornerstone of an effective response
to climate change-related health challenges.
In conclusions, the need for a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach for combatting
climate-sensitive health risks cannot be overstated. These challenges’ complexity demands
a concerted effort that brings together scientific inquiry, technological innovation, and
policy formulation. By fostering collaboration between disciplines and sectors, we can
develop robust, adaptable strategies that not only mitigate the immediate impacts of climate
change on health but also build long-term resilience in vulnerable populations. This call to
action underscores our collective responsibility to safeguard public health in response to
an uncertain future, and we urge all stakeholders to unite to formulate a comprehensive
response to climate change.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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Molecular Aspects of a Bad Deal. Trends Plant Sci. 2023,28, 185–198. [CrossRef]
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... A key finding of our study is the interaction between climate factors, particularly temperature and humidity, in influencing the incidence of diseases like dengue fever and HFMD. These interactions suggest that climate factors often work together to affect disease patterns, which can inform more precise public health interventions [50]. Finally, our study offers practical recommendations for Can Tho, including enhanced disease surveillance and targeted vector control programs, based on the specific climate-disease relationships identified. ...
... While our study identifies significant correlations between climate factors and disease incidence, we acknowledge that correlation does not imply causation. The observed associations should be interpreted with caution, as other indirect factors, such as migration patterns, water supply issues, and healthcare access, may also contribute to disease transmission [50]. These factors were not accounted for in this analysis, but future studies could incorporate such variables to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the causal relationships between climate and infectious diseases. ...
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Objective There is a growing correlation between the rise in infectious diseases and climate change; however, little is known about the interactions and mixed effects of climate factors on infectious diseases. Method We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study spanning 108 consecutive months from 2014 to 2022 in Can Tho, Vietnam to identify common infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis, HIV, and COVID-19) and their associations with climate change and determine which common diseases presented concurrently with the COVID-19 period using multivariate linear regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) and orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis. Result The five infectious diseases with the highest average incidence rates per 100,000 people were diarrhea; hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); dengue fever; viral hepatitis; and influenza. Positive associations with humidity were observed for dengue fever and HFMD. Temperature was positively associated with malaria. Negative associations were found between humidity and both chickenpox and tetanus. Diarrhea (AUC = 0.79; 95% CL = 0.70-0.87) and dengue fever (AUC = 0.74; 95% CL = 0.62-0.83) emerged as the most influential diseases both before and during the COVID-19 period. In our BKMR analysis, we found a significant association between the combined influence of temperature and humidity and the occurrence of dengue fever and HFMD, especially when all climate factors were at or above their 60th percentile relative to their values at the 50th percentile. Temperature emerged as the primary driver associated with the occurrence of infectious diseases. Conclusion These findings underscore the importance of implementing robust surveillance, prevention, and control measures by public health authorities in Can Tho. Initiatives like vaccination campaigns, vector control programs, public education on hygiene practices, and strengthening healthcare infrastructure are crucial for mitigating the spread of infectious diseases and safeguarding public health in the region.
... Understanding the intricate relationship between climate change and vector ecology is essential for developing effective public health strategies to mitigate the risks associated with vector-borne diseases. This requires an interdisciplinary approach, integrating climate science, ecology, epidemiology, and public health to anticipate future trends and implement adaptive measures 34,35 . ...
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Climate change is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of ecological and public health changes, particularly concerning vector-borne diseases. This scoping review aims to systematically map the current research on the impact of climate change on vector ecology and the subsequent effects on disease transmission dynamics. We conducted a comprehensive literature review across multiple databases to identify critical vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas. We examined how climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and humidity affect their populations, behaviors, and life cycles. Additionally, we explored the shifting geographic distributions of these vectors, investigating how climate change influences their spread and the emergence of diseases such as malaria, dengue, and Lyme disease in new regions. The review highlights the complex and multifaceted interactions between climate change and vector-borne diseases, emphasizing the necessity of understanding these relationships to inform effective public health strategies. Our findings indicate considerable variability in the impacts of climate change across different regions and vector species, underscoring the need for localized studies and tailored interventions. Moreover, significant research gaps were identified, particularly in predictive modeling, long-term surveillance, and the socio-economic impacts of vector-borne diseases exacerbated by climate change. We suggest directions for future research, including the development of integrated climate health models and enhanced disease surveillance systems to better anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change on vector-borne disease transmission. This review underscores the urgency of addressing climate change as a critical component of global health initiatives and the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in tackling this complex issue
... The emergence of novel pathogens is also influenced by climate change, as the conditions for the transmission of infectious diseases can be facilitated by changes in precipitation patterns and rising temperatures. The need for adaptable public health strategies to address the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases is underscored by the fact that diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are already increasing in prevalence in areas that were previously unaffected (19,20). ...
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The interaction between modern biomedical technologies and newly identified pathogenic microbes has become a crucial focus in the field of healthcare and illness management. The ongoing progress in technology is transforming the field of medical science. However, the advent of new and changing microbial dangers presents obstacles that require creative solutions. This article explores the delicate equilibrium between the capabilities of advanced biomedical technologies and the continuous development of disease-causing microorganisms. It provides new insights that influence the ongoing struggle between scientific advancement and the problems posed by these microbes.
... Understanding the intricate relationship between climate change and vector ecology is essential for developing effective public health strategies to mitigate the risks associated with vector-borne diseases. This requires an interdisciplinary approach, integrating climate science, ecology, epidemiology, and public health to anticipate future trends and implement adaptive measures 34,35 . ...
... Understanding the intricate relationship between climate change and vector ecology is essential for developing effective public health strategies to mitigate the risks associated with vector-borne diseases. This requires an interdisciplinary approach, integrating climate science, ecology, epidemiology, and public health to anticipate future trends and implement adaptive measures 34,35 . ...
Preprint
Climate change is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of ecological and public health changes, particularly concerning vectorborne diseases. This scoping review aims to systematically map the current research on the impact of climate change on vector ecology and the subsequent effects on disease transmission dynamics. We conducted a comprehensive literature review across multiple databases to identify critical vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas. We examined how climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and humidity affect their populations, behaviors, and life cycles. Additionally, we explored the shifting geographic distributions of these vectors, investigating how climate change influences their spread and the emergence of diseases such as malaria, dengue, and Lyme disease in new regions. The review highlights the complex and multifaceted interactions between climate change and vector-borne diseases, emphasizing the necessity of understanding these relationships to inform effective public health strategies. Our findings indicate considerable variability in the impacts of climate change across different regions and vector species, underscoring the need for localized studies and tailored interventions. Moreover, significant research gaps were identified, particularly in predictive modeling, long-term surveillance, and the socio-economic impacts of vector-borne diseases exacerbated by climate change. We suggest directions for future research, including the development of integrated climate-health models and enhanced disease surveillance systems, to better anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change on vector-borne disease transmission. This review underscores the urgency of addressing climate change as a critical component of global health initiatives and the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in tackling this complex issue.
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As the pandemic continues to pose challenges to global public health, developing effective predictive models has become an urgent research topic. This study aims to explore the application of multi-objective optimization methods in selecting infectious disease prediction models and evaluate their impact on improving prediction accuracy, generalizability, and computational efficiency. In this study, the NSGA-II algorithm was used to compare models selected by multi-objective optimization with those selected by traditional single-objective optimization. The results indicate that decision tree (DT) and extreme gradient boosting regressor (XGBoost) models selected through multi-objective optimization methods outperform those selected by other methods in terms of accuracy, generalizability, and computational efficiency. Compared to the ridge regression model selected through single-objective optimization methods, the decision tree (DT) and XGBoost models demonstrate significantly lower root mean square error (RMSE) on real datasets. This finding highlights the potential advantages of multi-objective optimization in balancing multiple evaluation metrics. However, this study’s limitations suggest future research directions, including algorithm improvements, expanded evaluation metrics, and the use of more diverse datasets. The conclusions of this study emphasize the theoretical and practical significance of multi-objective optimization methods in public health decision support systems, indicating their wide-ranging potential applications in selecting predictive models.
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The need to assess and measure how social vulnerability influences the health impacts of climate change has resulted in a rapidly growing body of research literature. To date, there has been no overarching, systematic examination of where this evidence is concentrated and what inferences can be made. This scoping review provides an overview of studies published between 2012 and 2022 on social vulnerability to the negative health effects of climate change. Of the 2115 studies identified from four bibliographic databases (Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and CAB Direct), 230 that considered indicators of social vulnerability to climate change impacts on health outcomes were selected for review. Frequency and thematic analyses were conducted to establish the scope of the social vulnerability indicators, climate change impacts, and health conditions studied, and the substantive themes and findings of this research. 113 indicators of social vulnerability covering 15 themes were identified, with a small set of indicators receiving most of the research attention, including age, sex, ethnicity, education, income, poverty, unemployment, access to green and blue spaces, access to health services, social isolation, and population density. The results reveal an undertheorisation and few indicators that conceptualise and operationalise social vulnerability beyond individual sociodemographic characteristics by identifying structural and institutional dimensions of vulnerability, and a preponderance of social vulnerability research in high-income countries. This Review highlights the need for future research, data infrastructure, and policy attention to address structural, institutional, and sociopolitical conditions, which will better support climate resilience and adaptation planning.
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Extreme precipitation events (EPE) change the natural and built environments and alter human behavior in ways that facilitate infectious disease transmission. EPEs are expected with high confidence to increase in frequency and are thus of great public health importance. This scoping review seeks to summarize the mechanisms and severity of impacts of EPEs on infectious diseases, to provide a conceptual framework for the influence of EPEs on infectious respiratory diseases, and to define areas of future study currently lacking in this field. The effects of EPEs are well-studied with respect to enteric, vector-borne, and allergic illness where they are shown to moderately increase risk of illness, but not well-understood in relation to infectious respiratory illness. We propose a framework for a similar influence of EPEs on infectious respiratory viruses through several plausible pathways: decreased UV radiation, increased ambient relative humidity, and changes to human behavior (increased time indoors and use of heating and cooling systems). However, limited work has evaluated meteorologic risk factors for infectious respiratory diseases. Future research is needed to evaluate the effects of EPEs on infectious respiratory diseases using individual-level case surveillance, fine spatial scales, and lag periods suited to the incubation periods of the disease under study, as well as a full characterization of susceptible, vulnerable, and sensitive population characteristics.
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The twenty-first century has witnessed a wave of severe infectious disease outbreaks, not least the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a devastating impact on lives and livelihoods around the globe. The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2013–2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 Zika virus disease epidemic all resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality while spreading across borders to infect people in multiple countries. At the same time, the past few decades have ushered in an unprecedented era of technological, demographic and climatic change: airline flights have doubled since 2000, since 2007 more people live in urban areas than rural areas, population numbers continue to climb and climate change presents an escalating threat to society. In this Review, we consider the extent to which these recent global changes have increased the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, even as improved sanitation and access to health care have resulted in considerable progress worldwide. Global change, including climate change, urbanization and global travel and trade, has affected the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. In the Review, Baker, Metcalf and colleagues examine how global change affects infectious diseases, highlighting examples ranging from COVID-19 to Zika virus disease.
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