The decline of the Arabian Leopard Panthera pardus nimr in Saudi Arabia: a values-based plan for future management

Abstract

The Critically Endangered Arabian Leopard (Panthera pardus nimr) has declined to near extinction in Saudi Arabia over the last fifteen or so years. In this paper we provide a time-series assessment of changes in the rate of leopard records since the 1930’s and provide a values-based plan for the management of the species in Saudi Arabia. The number of leopard records rose sharply in the 1960’s, peaking in the early 2000s, a time where human population growth and expansion across Saudi Arabia was also increasing. However, by 2014, the number of leopard records decreased to zero where it has remained. Based upon a clear need for effective conservation of the species, we developed a values-based management plan. In applying the planning framework, we defined the management system and its elements in their current state and the required state by the year 2050. From this work, a value-based goal was established, and four key management activities were recognised (and are expanded upon in the main text). We recommend that work is done to: (1) Ensure sufficient and suitable (in terms of required habitat and prey availability) areas are protected. (2) Reduce the level of human-based predation upon leopards to ensure sustainable mortality rates. (3) Manage the species metapopulation structure in terms of genetic makeup through natural and/or facilitated movement. (4) Continue to build community capacity and willingness to manage and protect the species. If these activities can be successfully completed, a population of Arabian Leopards can exist in Saudi Arabia if it is adaptively managed to deal with any additional and/or emerging threatening processes.

Full text

ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Received: 4 July 2023 / Revised: 10 November 2023 / Accepted: 9 February 2024 / Published online: 2 March 2024
© The Author(s) 2024
Communicated by David Hawksworth.
Mohammad Zafarul Islam
mzafarul.islam@gmail.com
1 Green Energy and Environmental Policy Department, Biodiversity Division, AlMidra Tower,
Saudi Aramco, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
2 National Centre for Wildlife, Alkhzan Street, Ullaishah, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The decline of the Arabian Leopard Panthera pardus nimr in
Saudi Arabia: a values-based plan for future management
Mohammad ZafarulIslam1· MichaelSmith2· Ahmed alBoug2
Biodiversity and Conservation (2024) 33:1393–1411
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-024-02806-z
Abstract
The Critically Endangered Arabian Leopard (Panthera pardus nimr) has declined to near
extinction in Saudi Arabia over the last fteen or so years. In this paper we provide a time-
series assessment of changes in the rate of leopard records since the 1930’s and provide
a values-based plan for the management of the species in Saudi Arabia. The number of
leopard records rose sharply in the 1960’s, peaking in the early 2000s, a time where hu-
man population growth and expansion across Saudi Arabia was also increasing. However,
by 2014, the number of leopard records decreased to zero where it has remained. Based
upon a clear need for eective conservation of the species, we developed a values-based
management plan. In applying the planning framework, we dened the management sys-
tem and its elements in their current state and the required state by the year 2050. From
this work, a value-based goal was established, and four key management activities were
recognised (and are expanded upon in the main text). We recommend that work is done to:
(1) Ensure sucient and suitable (in terms of required habitat and prey availability) areas
are protected. (2) Reduce the level of human-based predation upon leopards to ensure
sustainable mortality rates. (3) Manage the species metapopulation structure in terms of
genetic makeup through natural and/or facilitated movement. (4) Continue to build com-
munity capacity and willingness to manage and protect the species. If these activities can
be successfully completed, a population of Arabian Leopards can exist in Saudi Arabia if it
is adaptively managed to deal with any additional and/or emerging threatening processes.
Keywords Values-based planning · Wildlife management · Species decline · Risk
assessment · Management actions
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Introduction
What has happened to the Arabian Leopard (Panthera pardus nimr) in Saudi Arabia? The
species was once widespread across the country (Judas et al. 2006), but by 2006, it was
believed that the population had declined by around 90% (Fig. 1). Judas et al. (2006) uti-
lized viability analyses to predict species extinction in Saudi Arabia by around 2010 and
argued that increased levels of grazing (by goats, sheep, camels, and feral donkeys) and
road building into remote areas impacted the surrounding food webs, reducing availability
of prey species for the leopards. By reducing prey availability there will presumably be an
increase in competition for food with other predators and an increased risk of people being
attacked. It was then supposed that these changes meant that leopards were more likely to
prey upon domestic animals, catalyzing unsustainable levels of human predation (Judas
et al. 2006). Judas et al. (2006) recommended more surveying, increasing the area of land
allocated to protect leopards, and the development of in situ conservation programs.
Shortly after the paper by Judas et al. (2006), Al-Johany (2007) reported on the distribu-
tion of the Arabian Leopard in Saudi Arabia, conrming the species still persisted in reason-
able numbers in the Hijaz and Sarawat Mountains. Al-Johany (2007) felt that an important
factor for the persistence of leopards in the Hijaz and Sarawat Mountains was continued
prey availability and argued for a public awareness campaign and the creation of suitable
protected areas. It should also be noted that Arabian Leopards have been bred in captivity
(Boug et al. 2009). Between 1999 and 2018, 61 Arabian Leopards were held in breeding
Fig. 1 Historical distribution of the Arabian Leopard in Saudi Arabia, location of Protected Areas, and
proposed areas of suitable leopard habitat from Dunford et al. (2022). The state of the Arabian Leopard by
2050, in terms of its distribution and area of occupancy, will incorporate as much of the ‘suitable habitat’
as is practicable
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Biodiversity and Conservation (2024) 33:1393–1411
centres across the Middle East (ZIMS 2018), indicating considerable potential to re-estab-
lish extirpated populations and to supplement any existing populations (Islam and Boug
2017). Further, releasing collared leopards provides great prospects to better understand the
processes that drive leopard demographics in an area, thus providing additional opportuni-
ties to identify and ameliorate issues through sensible management.
Fast forward to the 2020’s and the situation is dire. Islam et al. (2020) reported a popula-
tion size of leopards in Saudi Arabia of around 50 individuals and used viability modelling
to highlight the potential signicance of competition for food and habitat destruction (in
addition to human hunting) as drivers of leopard extinction. By 2023, it was thought there
were fewer than 20 individuals remaining in the country (Islam et al. 2021; Islam 2022,
Hadi Hikamani Pers. Comm. 2023).
Bearing in mind the decline of Arabian Leopards to actual or near extinction in Saudi
Arabia, we:
(1) Provide a simple analysis of leopard records to further support the notion that the spe-
cies is on the brink of extinction in Saudi Arabia, and
(2) Apply a values-based planning approach (Wallace 2012) to the management of the
Arabian Leopard in Saudi Arabia.
Following the values-based planning approach, we:
(1) Identify key system elements,
(2) Set time frames and management boundaries,
(3) Suggest a preliminary values-driven management goal,
(4) Conduct a desktop direct risk factor analysis. Direct risk factors (Smith et al. 2015)
are those factors that immediately impact upon one or more of the key rates of a viable
population: mortality (or survival), birth (or fecundity), immigration, and emigration
not.
(5) Identify and conceptualise key processes for management, and
(6) Develop a set of management priorities.
Methods
Leopard population status
To better quantify leopard declines, leopard records have been collected through personal
communications and eld surveys, in addition to the primary and secondary literature. In
terms of personal communications, around 100 people were interviewed during leopard
surveys conducted from 2008 to 2011 by M Z Islam and A Boug. The interviews included
questions such as:
(1) When was the leopard last seen?
(2) Was the leopard alive or dead?
(3) Are there any photographs?
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Biodiversity and Conservation (2024) 33:1393–1411
The interviews were carried out in areas where the leopard had been previously recorded
and as such, local people provided historical information on the leopard in their area. More
detailed descriptions of the data collection approach are provided elsewhere (Islam et al.
2018). The record information was analyzed in a simple but t-for-purpose Bayesian time-
series model of the number of leopards recorded each year from 1930 to 2022. Time series
modelling can be complicated, but our question and data is simple and as such, we used an
intercept only linear regression (Holmes et al. 2021). The model was run in JAGS (Plum-
mer 2003) via the R2jags package (Su and Yajima 2021) deployed within the R software
environment (R Core Team 2013). Code for the model was taken directly from Holmes et
al. (2021, p. 350). Model formulation was:
Yt∼Pois (λt)
, noting that our use of count data requires a discrete probability distribu-
tion such as the Poisson distribution. Additionally:
E[Yt]
=
[λt]
and
logλt
=
xt
.
xt
is a realization of
Xt
, a sequence of random variables. Prior parameters were set to:
u~dnorm(0, 0.01); # mean of the observation error.
inv.q~dgamma(0.001,0.001); # Inverse gamma distribution for residual error.
q <- 1/inv.q; # derived estimate for residual error.
X0~dnorm(0, 0.001) # mean of the observation error at time zero.
Standard Bayesian model checking procedures were applied (e.g., assessment of parameter
convergence and autocorrelation) and a Bayesian-p value was generated to assess goodness-
of-t (Kéry and Schaub 2012).
Values-based planning framework
Information captured within the primary and secondary literature, in addition to expert
information from key Saudi Wildlife Managers working for the National Center for Wild-
life (https://www.ncw.gov.sa/en/Pages/default.aspx; last checked 02-02-2023) was used to
apply the values-based planning approach. The planning framework has been developed
by several authors (Wallace 2007, 2012; Pourabdollah et al. 2014, 2015; Smith et al. 2015,
2016, 2020; Wallace et al. 2016, 2020a, b, 2022; Wallace and Jago 2017, Smith and Wag-
ner in Preparation). The basic premise of the approach is that the penultimate reason for
managing wildlife is to maintain or improve the extent to which they are valued by people
(Fig. 2). Importantly, there is a connection between how people value natural assets and
their wellbeing, which constitutes the ultimate reason for managing natural systems (Wal-
lace et al. 2020a). The approach has a series of steps that include dening key elements
and their state (both at the initiation of management and for what is expected at the end of
the management period), dening management boundaries and time frames, and develop-
ing a general values-based goal for management (Wallace 2012). A risk assessment is then
conducted (in our case, a desktop review of the literature completed by the authors) and
followed by the development of conceptual models and appraisal of management options
(Smith et al. 2015). A nal step is to develop a monitoring program (Wallace 2012), but we
will forgo this step as it is addressed elsewhere (e.g., Jackson et al. 2006; Perez et al. 2006).
We work through each broad step which is characterized in Fig. 2. We assessed and pro-
posed a values-based goal for management, but we stress that ultimately the goal should be
developed by the appropriate stakeholders or their representatives (Wallace et al. 2016) — a
key recommendation from this work.
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Biodiversity and Conservation (2024) 33:1393–1411
Results
Leopard population status
The Bayesian timeseries model performed well (insignicant autocorrelation and no evi-
dence of poor convergence) with a Bayesian-p value of 0.32 indicating a good model t.
Visual conrmation of a good model t can be seen in Fig. 3 as the model estimates clearly
t the data extremely well.
The results of this analysis indicate that the leopard records increased during the 1960’s
and peaked by around 2000, after which there was a steep decline in records with the last
occurring in 2014 (Fig. 3). Since 2014, there have been no new records of Arabian Leopards
in Saudi Arabia. These results are consistent with previous estimates (Islam et al. 2021;
Islam 2022) which inferred that the population of leopards in Saudi Arabia is very small
(i.e., < around 20 individuals).
Planning framework
Step 1: Current state of the management system.
Summarised in Fig. 4, the key system elements of interested at the beginning of the man-
agement period and the properties relevant to management are provided in detail in Table 1.
Key elements include the Arabian Leopard, people, leopard prey, and leopard competitors
(Table 1). We also include elements associated with the habitat required by leopards, includ-
ing water (Table 1).
A management period of 27 years from now (2050) was assigned, and the initial manage-
ment area is bounded by the area dened by Dunford et al. (2022) as suitable habitat for the
species (refer to Fig. 1). Over time, the management area will be redened as new informa-
tion becomes available.
Fig. 2 Basis of the planning framework used here. Figure adapted from Wallace and Jago (2017)
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Biodiversity and Conservation (2024) 33:1393–1411
Fig. 4 Planning summary for the Arabian Leopard in Saudi Arabia
Fig. 3 Annual count of Arabian Leopard records in Saudi Arabia (black circle) and associated timeseries
mean estimate (solid black line) and 95% Credibility Intervals (grey envelope). Red line shows estimate
of human population in Saudi Arabia since 1960 (data provided by the world bank; https://datacatalog.
worldbank.org/search/dataset/0037712; last checked 18/01/2023). Population reported as ‘millions of
people’
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State at beginning of management period
Element Property Sub-property Estimate
Arabian Leopard Population viability Population size < 15
Genetic diversity Unknown
Eective population size Unknown
Level of captive
supplementation
0
Successful dispersal rate < 5
Areas of occupancy (distribution) Unknown
Prey species Population viability Species specic, but generally too low
Areas of occupancy Species specic, but generally too low
Competitors Population viability Species specic, but generally too low
Areas of occupancy Species specic, but generally too low
The physical habitat (excluding water)
required by leopards
Access to sucient denning sites Unknow
Access to sucient resting sites/cover Unknow
Water Access to (duration and proximity) sucient perma-
nent water
Unknow
People Knowledge of leopard conservation and management Too low
Capacity and willingness to act to conserve leopards Too low
State at end of management period (2050)
Element Property Sub-property Estimate
Arabian Leopard Population viability Population size 50 to 70 (or larger)
Genetic diversity As recommended
Eective population size 50 to 70 (or larger)
Level of captive
supplementation
Occurring as required
Successful dispersal rate If feasible, ≥ 15 individuals/year
Areas of occupancy (distribution) Sucient to maintain population viability
Prey species Population viability Stable in areas occupied by leopards
Table 1 System state at the beginning of the management period and the expected state at the end of the management period
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Areas of occupancy Sucient to maintain population viability
Competitors Population viability Stable in areas occupied by leopards
Areas of occupancy Sucient to maintain population viability
The physical habitat (excluding water)
required by leopards
Access to sucient denning and resting sites, and
cover in general
Sucient to maintain population viability
Water Access to (duration and proximity) sucient perma-
nent water
Enough (TBD) permanent water bodies
per individual home range
People Knowledge of leopard conservation and management Sucient for management success (TBD)
Capacity and willingness to act to conserve leopards Sucient for management success (TBD)
Table 1 (continued)
State at end of management period (2050)
Element Property Sub-property Estimate
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Step 2: Expected state of the system at the end of the management period.
As described in Table 1 and summarised in Fig. 4, by the end of the prescribed manage-
ment period, it is expected that there will be a population of between 50 and 70 leopards in
Saudi Arabia that are existing in suciently protected and suitable habitats (with regards
to freedom from hunting, and the availability of shelter, denning sites, water, and food). A
managed metapopulation structure (e.g., local population sizes and genetic makeup) with
an appropriate sex ratio will be achieved through open dispersal among protected areas
inhabited by the species and/or by population supplementation with captive bred or wild
caught individuals (Islam et al. 2020; Islam 2022). Ultimately, the population should have
a suitably high eective population size (the size of which still needs to be determined) and
have captured all the recommended genetic diversity. However, this may take more than one
management period.
Step 3: Values-based goal.
Based upon the work of Wallace (2012); Wallace et al. 2016, 2020b), we provide a set
of end-state values that we think are likely to be the key reasons for managing the Arabian
Leopard with a level of justication for our classication (Table 2; Fig. 4). We stress that
this is a preliminary set, and it will be appropriate and warranted to elicit from stakeholders
or their representatives the ultimate set of end-state values relevant to the management of
the Arabian Leopard and for them to rate the importance of each value (e.g., Wallace et al.
2016). We capture this point in the set of conceptual models (Supplementary Material 1).
Based upon the denitions and preliminary ranking of the end-state values in Table 2, a sug-
gested but preliminary management goal is to:
Ensure that the Arabian Leopard in Saudi Arabia continues to be valued for its con-
tribution to:
(1) Cultural-heritage and spiritual-philosophical fullment,
(2) People’s capacity to enjoy meaningful occupational and recreational opportuni-
ties, and
(3) An aesthetically pleasing environment.
With successful management, the leopard will not undermine the capacity of people
to:
(1) Fulll their resource requirements, and
(2) Enjoy an environment free from the risk of animal attack.
The goal is contextualized by a 27-year management time-frame and the spatial boundar-
ies that capture viable habitat for the species (Dunford et al. 2022). If the goal can be met,
then the managed population of Arabian Leopards in Saudi Arabia is expected to contribute
positively to the wellbeing of people, locally, nationally, and internationally.
Step 4: Process management
Structured risk assessment: Based upon our review of the available information, we pro-
pose that there are at least seven key risk factors that directly aect the species’ demographic
rates: predation, lack of food, lack of water, lack of mates, inbreeding, lack of key life
media (by which we mean cover in addition to any required resting and denning areas),
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Table 2 A Preliminary list of end-state values (based upon Wallace et al. 2020a) for the Arabian Leopard with
associated descriptions
End-state
values
Description Leopard related issues
Cultural-
heritage
fullment
It is important to maintain any
cultural and heritage prac-
tices associated with the use of
wildlife. Leopards are likely to
have signicant cultural-heritage
importance for people.
• Many people want to enjoy and full their cultural-
heritage connections, and for some people, this may
be reliant upon a viable population of leopards.
• There are strong cultural-heritage values associated
with traditional knowledge held by ‘local’ people.
This knowledge could be harnessed to mitigate
carnivore related human-wildlife conicts possibly
with a program designed to compensate shepherds or
people dependent upon livestock (as per provision of
adequate resources below).
Spiritual-
philosophical
fullment
(1) The sustainable use and con-
servation of wildlife is enshrined
in Islamic law and its principles.
(2) In general, many people also
have a fundamental ‘wildlife
ethic’ and strongly believe that
animals have a basic right to
exist. We should try to ensure that
right is maintained.
For many people it is important to realise their
religious and spiritual beliefs. For many, this may be
dependent upon a viable population of leopards.
Adequate
resources
Leopards can be used for a range
of medicinal purposes and leop-
ards can attack livestock.
People do not want to lose their stock through leopard
attacks and if stock are killed or injured by leopards,
they will want appropriate renumeration.
Protection
from other
organisms
This is an important end-state
value for people. Arabian Leop-
ard attacks can be fatal and as
such, needs to be managed.
People do not want to be attacked by leopards but it is
worth noting that leopard attacks are rare.
Meaningful
occupation
Leopards provide a meaning-
ful occupation for many people
whether it is for paid employment
or the various volunteer activities
related to its protection and man-
agement (this can include tourism
activities).
• People do not want their capacity to work to be un-
dermined by leopards. Whether it is related to loss of
stock or if they can make money by selling leopards
or their parts. Although leopard hunting is illegal, it
will be worthwhile to nd ways to provide people
with alternate occupations.
• Many people can be meaningfully employed or nd
volunteering opportunities related to the presence of
a viable leopard population. These occupations may
result from activities related to a tourism industry or
through the management of protected areas and any
corridors that connect protected areas.
Aesthetically
pleasing
Leopards are a visually pleasing
animal and as such it is likely
that many people will derive
considerable aesthetic enjoyment
from a sighting.
Leopards are a visually beautiful animal and as a
result, many people could fulll their wants for
aesthetic enjoyment associated with seeing and safely
experience leopards in the wild or in a captive breed-
ing facility.
Recreational
satisfaction
People enjoy hunting leopards
purely for recreational enjoyment.
This is a key values issue that needs to be managed.
Leopard hunting as a recreational pursuit is very likely
to very important to many people but is a signicant
risk factor for the species. An important management
issue will be nding ways to encourage people to nd
recreational enjoyment related to experiencing leop-
ards that does not impact upon species viability.
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and hyperthermia. Based upon the literature, predation and a lack of food are considered
to be particularly important direct risk factors (Judas et al. 2006; Al-Johany 2007; Islam
et al. 2015). Preliminary conceptual models have been developed for the direct risk fac-
tors (Supplementary Material 1) which also include points of interest in terms of proposed
conservation actions for the leopards and points of focus for important research. We now
consider the key processes likely to aect these risk factors and list management approaches
to ameliorate these issues.
Predation
Process description
Leopards are shy animals that typically avoid direct interaction with humans. However, the
key reasons why human-mediated predation is prevalent relates to how and why people
value the Kingdom’s natural systems (Table 2). These reasons include:
(1) Economic drivers associated with a meaningful occupation, such as trading for fur and
medicines,
(2) Hunting leopards to prevent any threats to lives (protection from other organisms),
(3) Hunting leopards as a recreational pursuit,
(4) Protecting livestock (Islam et al. 2015, 2018). If leopards become deprived of food,
they are likely to prey upon livestock, leading people to hunt them to protect their liveli-
hoods and food sources (adequate resources and meaningful occupation), and
(5) Accidental poisoning by people deploying laced meat to control other unwanted species
(adequate resources and meaningful occupation).
Predation is likely to directly impact upon mortality rates but may also aect immigration,
emigration, and birth rates.
Management
There are several key management options to reduce predation to sustainable levels—not-
ing the denition of what is a sustainable level will need to be determined over time through
adaptive management. These possibilities include:
(1) Eectively implementing the new hunting laws which were introduced in 2021
(National Center for Wildlife 2021) to curtail the critical issue of hunting pressure on a
range of species, including the Arabian Leopard and its prey. This program is hoped to
reduce the threat of hunting, not only on any remaining or future leopard populations,
but for a range of leopard prey species also targeted by hunters (resulting in a lack of
food). As part of these changes, a strong ning system is now in place (National Center
for Wildlife 2021) which should act as a strong deterrent to hunting.
(2) Encouraging ‘protected grazing ranches’ in areas where leopard and other large preda-
tors occur in signicant numbers. This approach should be facilitated by government
assistance to support the creation of protective livestock enclosures consisting of galva-
nized iron piping and wire mesh.
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(3) Increasing the knowledge of relevant communities about the importance of leopard
conservation and its benets. The knowledge held by relevant communities needs to
be sucient to change the capacity and willingness of enough people to act to con-
serve leopards. Although this will involve ongoing, adaptive and eective community
engagement, a key step will be to formally elicit the reasons why and extent to which
people value the Arabian Leopard (e.g., Wallace et al. 2016). This is a key recommenda-
tion of this document.
Armed with a clearer understanding of why and how people value leopards, managers
can begin to better develop programs to fully involve citizens in the management of the
species. Such participation will require programs with clear and eective aims, targets,
and governance structures. Programs can:
i. Help to further develop meaningful occupations and the sustainable use of local
natural resources, including alignment with tourism opportunities. There is scope
to appoint and train wildlife rangers and environmental police to enforce local and
national regulations against wildlife hunting and other similar activities,
ii. Aim for more ‘local’ natural resource management opportunities and knowledge
building, including technical training for activities such as wildlife monitoring and
the sustainable use and manufacturing of natural resources and associated products,
and
iii. Seek additional opportunities to improve the economic benets for people associ-
ated with maintaining a sustainable population of leopards. This may further reduce
the impetus to hunt leopards.
We suggest that the management of this risk factor is feasible and can be very eective if
sucient resources and training are assigned to enforcement and if the community is suc-
cessfully engaged and motivated.
Lack of food
Process description
Expanding agriculture (including management of grazing species), urbanization, and pos-
sibly mining can result in the degradation and removal of vegetation and wholesale recon-
guration of locally aected landscapes. This degrades the utility of these areas for leopards
and often results in an overly fragmentated habitat (Franklin et al. 2002). Because of the
far-reaching eects of these changes for a range of species (including prey for leopards), a
‘fragmented’ and degraded landscape can lead to reduced availability of food for leopards.
This combined with increasing competition with other predators (such as Canis lupus arabs
and Caracal caracal), means a given area will not be able to support as many leopards as it
may have in the past.
Human hunting of prey species is also likely to contribute signicantly to a lack of food.
People in Saudi Arabia are known to hunt for several dierent species (including those
required for prey by leopards; Alatawi 2022). The motivations behind hunting leopards
include cultural fullment, recreation, and as a source of income as part of a meaningful
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Biodiversity and Conservation (2024) 33:1393–1411
occupation. These issues directly relate to why people value the species and as such are
captured in Table 2.
If not already having an eect, a changing climate may also impact the distribution and
diversity of many species preyed upon by leopards. A lack of food is likely to directly
impact upon mortality rates, but may also aect immigration, emigration, and birth rates.
With changing immigration and emigration rates, a lack of mates and inbreeding (both also
direct risk factors) may aect birth rates.
Management
(1) Currently, the protected areas only cover a small portion of potential leopard habitat
(Fig. 1), which must also be suciently sized and appropriately managed to sustain
adequate food resources for the species. Thus, a clear management recommendation is
to establish suitably sized and located protected areas that are suciently free from prey
hunting (by eectively implementing the new hunting laws) and habitat modication
by people for mining, agricultural, and urbanization purposes. Keeping the protected
areas free from signicant human landscape modication will be reliant upon legisla-
tion, regulation, and enforcement.
Where possible, it may also be important to reconnect or un-fragment currently disjoint
areas of viable leopard habitat to increase the area available for leopards and their prey.
Reconnecting and rehabilitating areas may require appropriate restoration of habitat (includ-
ing provision of water and cover) and control of human hunting. This has been proposed by
Islam et al. (2021).
(2) An additional option is to physically manage prey availability in Protected Areas. This
may be achieved through captive breeding and release, capturing, and releasing wild
prey species, and/or supplementing areas with ‘prey’ carcases.
We recommend that the management of this risk factor should be assessed in terms of the
feasibility and eectiveness of the dierent options. For example, it may not be feasible to
protect, restore, and manage sucient areas of leopard habitat to reach the management
goal.
Lack of mates and inbreeding
Process description
As noted above, there are several issues relating to increasing fragmentation of habitat both
within and among protected areas that appear to be reducing leopard densities and limiting
dispersal. Another consequence of these issues is a decreasing capacity for leopards to nd
appropriate mates and increased likelihood of inbreeding. The last record of a dead Arabian
Leopard was in February 2014 (Fig. 3), when a sub-adult male leopard was poisoned (Islam
et al. 2018). Islam et al. (2018) hypothesized that the individual was dispersing to nd a new
mate and/or to establish its own territory. An additional possibility that was considered was
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Biodiversity and Conservation (2024) 33:1393–1411
dispersal to avoid competition for food (Islam et al. 2018). Natal dispersal has been reported
for majority of leopard species when they reach sexual maturity (Balme et al. 2013), which
presumably helps to avoid inbreeding and enhance levels of genetic dierentiation and
adaptation. Safe and eective dispersal of individuals should help to connect more isolated
populations, lowering the risk of stochastic extinction (Fahrig and Merriam 1994).
Management
There are two key management responses to this issue. The rst, as described in point (2)
above, is to create enough protected areas to support the desired population size. The sec-
ond is to manage metapopulation issues. A transboundary management program between
Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen is likely to be a critical management option for the leopard.
This program has been identied as important (Islam et al. 2018, 2021) because it will
allow movement of leopards (whether natural or facilitated) among the sub-populations,
providing gene ow. The program will require signicant cooperation, but if successful, will
enhance protected areas in all countries. Of note, the largest, least fragmented, but unpro-
tected habitats for the leopard are in and around Oman (Spalton and Al Hikmani 2014).
Protecting and linking other populations to this area, either physically or through assisted
dispersal, will be critical to the successful management of the species.
It is important to note that many of the border areas are highly protected and fenced,
and as a result, it is unlikely that leopards can easily disperse through at least some of these
areas. As noted above, this issue is most likely to be ameliorated by human facilitated dis-
persal. Without sucient habitat (including prey species, cover, resting and denning sites,
and water) and the capacity for individuals to successfully disperse, the population size of
leopards in Saudi Arabia will continue to decrease with associated genetic consequences
(Wilcox and Murphy 1985; Saunders et al. 1991; Wiens 1995) as has been shown for other
leopard subspecies (e.g., Uphyrkina et al. 2001).
A clear denition of what is desired in terms of the metapopulation structure for the spe-
cies is still required and should be developed. We also recommend that the various manage-
ment options for this risk factor require an assessment of feasibility and eectiveness. For
example, it may be more eective and feasible to physically manage geneow among sub
populations through captive breeding/wild-wild translocation than trying to create move-
ment corridors among dierent areas.
Captive-breeding can play a vital role in the conservation of the Arabian Leopard includ-
ing the maintenance of a genetically diverse population. In Saudi Arabia, a captive-breeding
program for the Arabian Leopard was initiated in early 2000 and continued until 2017. In
2018 the captive-breeding program was handed over to the Royal Commission for AlUla
(RCU).
The captive-breeding of Arabian Leopards in Saudi Arabia has been addressed elsewhere
(Islam et al. 2020). However, we do note here that captive breeding is an important manage-
ment activity because:
(1) Where major risk factors have been addressed, captive released animals can survive
well in the wild.
(2) It can help to maintain a genetically diverse population. Captive-breeding programs
carefully manage the breeding of leopards to ensure that the captive population is as
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Biodiversity and Conservation (2024) 33:1393–1411
genetically diverse as possible. This is important for the long-term health and viability
of the species.
(3) It provides animals for wild supplementation and for reintroduction programs. Captive-
bred leopards can be used to reintroduce the species to its former range.
Lack of water
Process description
Leopards usually get moisture from their prey and consequently, can go without water for
long periods. Although leopards can survive without water for a long time, during drier
periods and/or periods where prey are less available, leopards are likely to rely upon access
to water—noting that in captivity at the Prince Saud Al-Faisal Wildlife Research Centre
(https://www.ncw.gov.sa/en/aboutus/pages/researchcenters.aspx#collapseOne; last checked
12/02/2023), leopards have been observed drinking water. However, with a changing cli-
mate along with reduced prey availability, the removal of wetlands, and extraction of ground
water (through agriculture, mining, and urbanization) it is likely that leopards will be forced
to seek water more often. A lack of water may have several eects on population viability,
including a reduction in immigration and increase in emigration rates as aected areas may
not be able to support as high densities of leopards as they did in the past. These changes
may lead to an increased mortality rate and impact upon birth rates through a lack of suitable
mates, which may also cause inbreeding.
Management
This issue should be relatively easily and eectively managed if suitable water sources
can be protected and where required, managed in terms of ensuring water is available to
leopards and their prey during critical periods. Additional water points could be created
as required, whether in protected areas or in dispersal corridors. Important water sources
should be identied, mapped, and protected.
Hyperthermia
Process description
Leopards occur in intermediate elevations (Dunford et al. 2022). Species that prefer inter-
mediate altitudes may be particularly susceptible to increasing temperatures if they are
‘pushed up the mountain’ to extinction—so to speak.
Management
At this stage, we suggest that there is considerable scope to research the potential eects and
if required, solutions to hyperthermia for leopards in the future.
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Biodiversity and Conservation (2024) 33:1393–1411
Discussion
The Arabian Leopard in Saudi Arabia is imperiled. Here, we provide additional informa-
tion to conrm the state of the species in Saudi Arabia and provide a values-based plan of
management to ameliorate key risk factors. In terms of our population analysis, the human
population and the rate of leopard detections increased starkly from the 1960s (Fig. 2) up
until the 2000’s, after which the human population continued to grow while the leopard
population appears to have declined rapidly. We infer that with increased human population
size, there was more opportunity for people and leopards to interact, resulting in more obser-
vations. However, with the growing human population and changing land use, we suggest
that the leopard population has declined, becoming increasingly inviable, leading to a sharp
decrease in observations after 2000.
For planning purposes, key system elements were dened as was a spatially and tempo-
rally contextualized values-based management goal. The goal can be realized by changing
the current state of the system elements to one that will allow people to value the Arabian
Leopard in Saudi Arabia more fully. To achieve this, at a minimum, four priority manage-
ment activities must be successful. We need to:
(1) Ensure sucient and suitable areas are protected.
a. Collectively, these areas will require adequate cover, food, and water to sustain
a viable population and be free from signicant and unsanctioned human habitat
modication and hunting of leopard prey species.
(2) Ensure the level of human-based predation upon leopards is suciently reduced to
ensure mortality rates are sustainable.
a. This can be achieved through a mixture of enforcement and improvement in peo-
ple’s capacity and willingness to manage and protect the species.
(3) Continue to build people’s capacity and willingness to manage and protect the species.
This should begin with the appropriate organizations properly understanding why and
how people value the leopard, which can only be fully achieved through stakeholder
elicitation of some form. This information should be used to develop citizen-based
management programs that ensure people can:
a. enjoy meaningful occupations and recreational pursuits,
b. obtain resources in a sustainable manner,
c. fulll their philosophical, spiritual, and cultural-heritage requirements,
d. derive aesthetic pleasure, and.
e. not live in fear of leopard attacks.
(4) As described earlier, dene and then manage the species required metapopulation struc-
ture in terms of number of populations, individuals per population, sex ratios, genetic
makeup, etc. Future planning periods may look to increase the size of the population(s)
with a view to becoming less reliant on captive bred animals. This will need:
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Biodiversity and Conservation (2024) 33:1393–1411
a. a dened level and distribution of regional genetic heterogeneity,
b. a target for local and overall eective population size, and
c. an assessment of the required contribution and eectiveness of natural and/or assisted
dispersal. For example, creating ‘corridors’ for dispersal between protected areas
may simply be unfeasible and ineective and dispersal might be better achieved by
a mixture of captive releases and physically moving wild-caught individuals.
These results indicate several priority areas for research, which include determining:
(1) How much genetic diversity can be captured in a wild population of leopards in Saudi
Arabia and:
a. is that enough to avoid serious genetic issues, and
b. how should that diversity be distributed among the various sub-populations?
(2) Given point (1), what is the best way to physically capture and maintain genetic diver-
sity in the species across all sub populations (i.e., create dispersal corridors or manage
assisted dispersal)?
(3) What are the most eective ways to build knowledge in people to ensure a capacity and
willingness to suciently manage and protect leopards?
a. How can the number of leopards and their prey being hunted be adequately reduced?
b. What are the best methods to ensure there is enough water and other required habi-
tat elements for the species in protected areas?
(4) How will climate change aect the distribution and viability of the species and what can
be done to ameliorate any key issues?
Conclusion
If the above-mentioned activities occur, we consider it likely that the Arabian Leopard will
once again exist in the wilds of Saudi Arabia. But to achieve this, it will be critical that
people are a major part of the solution, which requires the relevant authorities to continue
to make eorts to fully understand why and how people value the species. If successful,
and with ongoing adaptive management, where additional or new issues are identied and
resolved, the Arabian Leopard in Saudi Arabia will continue to contribute to the wellbeing
of people locally, nationally, and internationally.
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.
org/10.1007/s10531-024-02806-z.
Acknowledgements We extend our sincere appreciation to Dr. Mohammad Qurban, CEO of the National
Center for Wildlife, and all those who tirelessly dedicate themselves to the preservation of the Arabian Leop-
ard in Saudi Arabia and across its range. We commend Saudi Aramco for its unwavering commitment to
protecting the habitats that wildlife rely upon and endangered species, exemplied by the establishment
of the Abha Biodiversity Protected Area in the Southwestern Highlands, a crucial potential habitat for this
magnicent feline.
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Biodiversity and Conservation (2024) 33:1393–1411
Author contributions M.Z.I.: conceptualized the paper, data collection, analysis, writing, and submission.
M.S.: conceptualized the paper, data collection, analysis, and writing. A.A.B.: review and support.
Declarations
Conflict of interest We declare that the authors have no competing interests as dened by Springer, or other
interests that might be perceived to inuence the results and/or discussion reported in this paper.
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License,
which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as
you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons
licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are
included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material.
If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted
by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the
copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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