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Journal of Advanced Zoology
ISSN: 0253-7214
Volume 45 Issue 2Year 2024 Page 819-832
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Analysing Climate Change Manifestations Through People's Perception In
Kashmir Valley, India.
Hilal Ahmad Parrey1, Shamim Ahmad Shah2, Mohd Shafi Bhat3*
1*,2,3Department of Geography & Disaster Management, University of kashmir, srinagar, J&K 190006, India.
* Corresponding author: Mohammad Shafi Bhat
*Department of Geography & Disaster Management, University of kashmir, srinagar, J&K 190006, India.
CC License
CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0
Abstract
The Kashmir Himalayas, a fragile mountainous, region, are experiencing the
adverse effects of climate change, including rising temperatures, erratic rainfall,
and extreme weather events. This study, based on primary data from 384
respondents in the Kashmir Valley, assesses people's perceptions of climate
change impacts, particularly on temperature, precipitation, extreme weather
events, and agriculture. Results indicate that 57% of respondents observe a
decline in rainfall, 75% note a significant reduction in snowfall, and almost 60%
perceive a decrease in stream discharge. Additionally, 75% believe that extreme
weather events have become more frequent and intense, adversely affecting
agricultural productivity. These findings align with empirical studies on climate
change in the region and can serve as a basis for mobilizing public participation
in government and non-governmental initiatives aimed at adaptation and
mitigation.
Keywords: Climate Change manifestation, Catastrophic, Quantifiable,
Perception, Adaptation, Mitigation
Introduction:
1.1 Climate:
Climate is a fundamental factor in the development of human life. It is a statistical concept denoting the average
or typical range of weather conditions in a specific location (Weber, 2010). This encompasses the overall
weather pattern, seasons, and extremes like droughts or periods of increased precipitation. According to the
IPCC (2007b), climate is defined as the long-term average of weather conditions, encompassing elements such
as temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, rainfall, and atmospheric particle concentration in a
given location over an extended period. The composition of climate is influenced by three key factors: the
amount of solar energy released into the atmosphere, its distribution across the system, and the interactions
among various components within the system (Trenberth, 1992).
1.2 Climate Change:
Climate change is a multifaceted, abstract, quantifiable, and potentially catastrophic environmental challenge
stemming from myriad human-induced activities worldwide (cf. IPCC, 2007 and Vainio et al., 2013). As
defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), it is "a change in
climate attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere
and natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods" (UNFCCC, 2007 and IPCC, 2007).
Journal of Advanced Zoology
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This issue intricately intertwines nature, society, and individuals' preferences for material or non-material
values, transcending boundaries, as articulated by former UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. Climate change
is labelled a 'global challenge' requiring international cooperation, deemed by former US Secretary of State
John Kerry as "likely the world's most lethal weapon of mass destruction," necessitating urgent action.
An urgent and visible concern of the twenty-first century, climate change is characterized as a textbook example
of a "wicked problem" (Conradie, 2020) with nested, intractable, and unforeseen challenges. Regarded as the
most serious environmental threat of the century (Stephenson et al., 2010), the global average temperature of
land and oceans increased by 0.950 Celsius between 1880 and 2012 (Hansen et al., 2010 and Stocker, 2014).
Climate models predict a 1–20 Celsius increase in tropic temperatures by 2050 (Deffenbaugh and Field, 2013),
with less certainty regarding rainfall increases (Loarie et al., 2009). India's annual average temperature
increased by 0.560 Celsius between 1901 and 2009 (Attri and Tyagi, 2010).
Experts project a 1.4-2.40 Celsius increase in the average global temperature by the end of the century, leading
to rising sea levels, altered rainfall patterns, floods, droughts, and a decline in agricultural production, crop
yields, and livestock productivity, resulting in food scarcity. Climate change stands as one of the most pressing
and divisive global challenges, demanding collaborative, immediate, and sustained global efforts to mitigate
its far-reaching impacts.
1.3 Climate Change Perception:
While people may not directly witness climate change, they interpret environmental shifts as indicators,
influenced by information from the media (Heath and Gifford, 2006; Etkin and Ho, 2007). Perception, a process
converting raw facts into meaningful patterns, involves various psychological components like beliefs,
attitudes, and concerns about climate change (Whitmarsh and Chapstick, 2018). Individual characteristics,
experiences, and cultural environments shape perceptions (van der Linden, 2015; Whitmarsh and Chapstick,
2018). Climate change perceptions are crucial for developing policies, necessitating recognition of its
existence, effects, and causes (Zhou and Feng, 2011). Public perceptions are influenced by structural,
psychological, social, and cultural elements (Weber, 2010) making assessment challenging.
Various methods exist to measure climate change beliefs, with direct questioning being popular (Akerlof and
Maybach, 2011; Leviston and Walker, 2010; Reser et al., 2011). Some studies analyse sequences of statements
to infer views on climate change (Whitmarsh, 2011; Poortinga et al., 2011). Human perception is influenced
by personality, community, environment, and their interactions (Sarkar et al., 2012). Public attention to
scientific facts and media narratives shapes perceptions and behaviours (Weber, 2010).
1.4 Study Area:
The Valley of Kashmir is nestled in the North-Western folds of Himalayas. The mountain ranges rise to height
of about 5550 m in the north-east and dip down to a height of 2770 m in South (Bhat and Rather,2018). The
study area is between 330s30'N and 34o40'N in latitude and 73o45'E and 75o35'E in longitude. It is 15,853
km2 in size. The Kashmir valley is one of the three parts of the old state of Jammu and Kashmir that are
separated by the Himalayas. People believe that these divisions are like a three-story building, with the semi-
closed ecosystem of the Kashmir valley in the middle (Raza, et al., 1978; Dar, 2017; Khan, 2007). The Greater
Himalayas to the Northeast and the Lesser Himalayas (Pir Panjal range) to the Southwest make up the borders
of the Kashmir valley, which is a mountain basin (Romshoo et al., 2020). The Kashmir valley is 140 km long
from north to south and 45 km wide from east to west. It has ten districts (Ganaie et al., 2014). Based on
morphology, the valley of Kashmir can be divided up into the valley floor, the Karewas, the foothills or
rimlands, and the side valleys (Lone et al., 2022). The alluvium left by the Jhelum River and its tributaries is
what makes the valley floor the most interesting part. Because the land is flat and there are a lot of fertile
alluvial deposits, there are irrigation facilities available all year. The "rice bowl of Kashmir" is an area of
farmland that is mostly made up of paddy fields. The Karewas and the valley floor are both important parts of
the geography of the Kashmir valley. The Karewas are flat-topped mounds that come from lakes and have a
wavy surface. They are on both sides of the valley floor (Kumar et al., 2020; Bhatt, 1975). Along the length of
the valley, they are spread out over a large part of the southern edge. Around mountain ridges, their tops tend
to slope, but in the middle of a valley, they are mostly flat (Lone et al., 2022). They are considered perfect for
market gardening because of the above qualities. Most of the border mountains and the low mountains in the
valley are in the foothills (Easterbrook, 1999; Juanico, 1987). Conifer trees form a dense canopy over these
hills from the different Himalayan Mountain ranges down to the valley plain. (Sabha et al. 2020) states that the
side valleys are the major sources of water for the Jhelum River. These small-scale changes in landforms and
climate give the area yet another unique agricultural and ecological regime.
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Fig 1: Study area map
Database and Methodology:
Data base
The current research relies on data gathered through a structured questionnaire. Data collection was carried out
using a simple random sampling technique.
Methodology
Initially, the content validity index was utilized to assess the internal consistency among various indicators of
climate change. The calculation of the content validity index followed a specific formula:
CVI= n/N
Where n= Numbers of evaluators agreed and n= Sum of evaluators.
Additionally, the item content validity index was utilized to evaluate the extent to which individual items were
deemed relevant and representative of the construct being measured by a consensus of content experts. In this
context, the content experts primarily consisted of individuals who had first-hand experience with the changes
in climate manifestations within the study region. The calculation of the Item Content Validity Index (I-CVI)
followed a specific methodology.
No. of experts rating the important items /Total. Number of experts.
The I-CVI is calculated for each individual item in a scale or questionnaire.
Then A-CVI, which is an aggregate measure that provides an overall assessment of content validity for the
entire set of items or constructs was calculated by following method:
Average-Content Validity Index(A-CVI) = Sum of I-CVI / Total number of items.
Calculating these indices is aimed at determining whether the items within a measuring tool adequately and
accurately represent the content domain they are intended to evaluate. Content experts are enlisted for this
process to assess and rank the clarity and relevance of each item. Utilizing the quantitative measures of expert
agreement provided by the I-CVI and A-CVI (Table 1), researchers can make informed decisions about which
items to retain, modify, or eliminate in order to enhance the content validity of the instrument. To streamline
data analysis and communication, an agreement level table or a percentage level table (Table 2) was constructed
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based on a 4-point Likert scale. This facilitates decision-making processes, quality control, trend identification,
risk assessment, and policy formulation within the realms of agriculture and environmental management.
Employing pie diagrams (Fig 2) serves to make complex information more accessible and visually appealing.
Climate change encompasses numerous interconnected factors, and a pie diagram can effectively simplify and
elucidate the relationships between these variables. As pie diagrams are straightforward and easy to
comprehend, they serve as a valuable tool for conveying survey data to diverse audiences, including those who
may not possess a strong familiarity with statistical concepts.
Sample size
The sample size was calculated based on the population size of the chosen region. The sample size for this
investigation was calculated using the sample size determination formula. The margin of error is 10% at a 90%
level of significance, with a standard deviation of 0.89 and a Z score of 1.65. (S.D- standard deviation).
Significant confidence level
Z score value
90%
1.65
95%
1.96
99%
2.57
Based on the sample size calculation formula, the sample size of the study is 384 respondents.
Results
Perceptions of climate change are multidimensional, comprising several psychological components such as
information, beliefs, attitudes, and concerns about whether and how the climate is changing (Whitmarsh and
Chapstick, 2018). Individual characteristics, experience, information received, and the cultural and
geographical environment in which they live all influence and shape perception (van der Linden, 2015;
Whitmarsh and Chapstick, 2018). Perceptions of climate change are shaped and impacted by a diverse array of
structural, psychological, social, and cultural aspects and processes with various intentions (Weber,2010). Over
the year and over several decades, precipitation fluctuates in amount, intensity, frequency, and type (for
example, snow vs rain), impacting the environment and society. The variability in the amount of precipitation
is determined by the temperature characteristics. This variability affects the quantity of water that flows out
through streams around the year, significantly impacting agricultural productivity. The present study was
conducted in Kashmir Valley, located in the northwestern folds of the Himalayas. The first internal consistency
of surveyed data regarding climate change manifestations was calculated using the content validity index, then
summarising the change in climate change manifestations using an agreement level table.
Table:1 Content Validity Index of Climate Change Manifestations: -
Statements
Increase
Decrease
Un-Change
Total
I-CVI
A-CVI
1.Change in Rainfall.
23%
57%
------
80
0.8
------
2.Change in Snowfall.
10%
75%
------
85
0.85
------
3.Change in temperature
68%
------
18%
86
0.86
------
4. Change in stream discharge
------
60%
18%
78
0.78
------
5.Change in Ext. Weather Events
72%
------
16%
88
0.88
------
6.ChangeinAgricultural Production
18%
60%
------
78
0.78
------
Sum
4.95
0.825
Source: Almanasreh et.al (2019).
It is clear from Table 1 that the I-CVI of four statements, i.e., Change in Rainfall, Change in Snowfall, Change
in Temperature, and Change in Extreme Weather Conditions, was 0.8, 0.85,0.86,0.88, respectively. Similarly,
the I-CVI of Change in Stream Discharge and Agricultural Production was 0.78 each. The sum of the I-CVI of
all the statements was 4.95, while the A-CVI was 0.825, clearly depicting extremely good internal consistency
or score more than the range acceptable for checking Content Validity Index reliability.
The identification of climate change relies on alterations in various climatic indicators. In this investigation,
we scrutinized several significant variables including precipitation, snowfall, temperature, streamflow, and
occurrences of extreme weather events. These factors directly impact the agricultural productivity of the region.
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Table:2 Agreement Level Table Showing Responses of the Respondents in percentages with Respect to
following Statements.
Statements
A
G
R
E
E
M
E
N
T
%
Increase
Decrease
Un-change
Can’t Say
1.Change in Rainfall.
23%
57%
12%
8%
2.Change in Snowfall.
10%
75%
7%
8%
3.Change in Temperature.
68%
5%
18%
9%
4.Change in Stream Discharge.
8%
60%
18%
9%
5.Change in Ext. Weather Events.
72%
4%
16%
8%
6.Change in Agricultural Production
18%
60%
13%
9%
Source: Field Survey-2022
1.Change in Rainfall and Snowfall: -
a) Rainfall Change
In the Kashmir Valley, a critical concern has emerged regarding the changing precipitation patterns,
particularly in terms of both rainfall and snowfall. The data from the table indicates that 23% of the respondents
perceive a rise in rainfall. In comparison, a substantial majority of 57% of the participants believe there has
been a decline in rainfall. Our study is in conformity with the study of (Shafiq et al (2019), which confirms that
the precipitation patterns in various topographic zones is witnessing a steady decline over the past 37 years.
The significant variability in perceptions suggests that most of the population believes that there has been a
decrease in rainfall in the Kashmir Valley. Individual experiences with changing climate conditions, personal
observations of weather patterns, and community conversations that draw attention to the shifting precipitation
patterns in the area likely influence the response. It is crucial to acknowledge that individuals' comprehension
of climate change often originates from their immediate environment and interactions, thus making these
perceptions a valuable manifestation of the local community's collective consciousness and involvement with
the environmental changes in the Kashmir Valley. The importance of these views depends on their capacity to
shape individual and community choices and stimulate discussions and initiatives about climate resilience and
adaptation in the region.
b) Snowfall Change
The study reveals an interesting perspective among respondents regarding the snowfall patterns in the Kashmir
Valley. Specifically, 10% of the participants acknowledge an increase in snowfall, but a substantial majority
of 75% believe there has been a substantial decrease. The findings of the study corroborate with previous
studies carried out by IPCC (2001), Kaur et al. (2009) and Kripalani et al. (2003), which indicate a decline in
snowfall and an increase in temperature in the Kashmir valley. This general mindset aligns with growing
worries about how climate change may affect local traditional weather patterns. The notable percentage of
respondents who observed a decrease in snowfall is particularly remarkable, considering that snowfall plays a
crucial role in maintaining the region's ecological balance and supporting multiple sectors. Snowfall, especially
during the chillai kalaan (the 40-day harsh winter), has decreased, with more wet snow and less powder snow,
especially in Srinagar over the last 30 years. Gulmarg and Pahalgam, two famous tourist destinations in
Kashmir, show seasonal decreasing trends of snowfall of about 15 mm and 1.8 mm per decade.
The reduced snowfall in the Kashmir Valley has varied implications for water availability, agricultural
practices, and overall ecological health. The decrease in snowfall can harm water reservoirs, impacting water
supply. The snow in the Himalayan region serves as a natural reservoir, holding water that gradually melts and
feeds streams and rivers throughout the summer. A reduction in snowfall can result in decreased water flow,
impacting agricultural irrigation and hydroelectric power generation, vital local economy components. The
implications for agriculture are substantial because irrigation in the Kashmir Valley relies primarily on the
yearly snowmelt. Reduced snowfall could lead to water scarcity during crucial seasons of crop cultivation,
potentially affecting crop yields and overall production of paddy, which is a water-intensive crop. Farmers may
need to adapt by exploring alternative water sources or implementing more water-efficient agricultural
practices. In addition, the region's ecological health is intimately linked to the varying snow cover during
different seasons. The flora and fauna of the Kashmir Valley have adapted to the particular temperature
conditions, and significant changes in snowfall patterns might disrupt these ecosystems. Changes in snowfall
can also cause variations in temperature and weather patterns, exerting extra pressure on biodiversity and
habitats. The study concludes that the decrease in snowfall, according to the survey data, raises serious concerns
for the long-term viability of the ecological and socio-economic conditions in the Kashmir Valley. The area's
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residents appear to be cognizant of the potential consequences of these alterations, aligning with broader global
discussions over the impacts of climate change on mountainous ecosystems and the communities that depend
on them. A thorough strategy that considers adaptable strategies for various local economic sectors and
environmental conservation measures is required to address these issues.
2.Change in Temperature and Stream Discharge: -
c) Temperature Change
Over time, a noticeable change in climate patterns has become apparent in the picturesque Kashmir Valley,
characterized by a steady rise in temperature. The study indicates that many respondents (68%) believed
temperatures have risen in the Kashmir Himalayas. The study agrees with the results of (Shafiq et al. (2019)
for the period 1980–2014, which demonstrated a notable and statistically significant rise in the average annual
temperature of the Kashmir valley. This perspective represents a regional consciousness and corresponds to
worldwide patterns linked to the wider problem of climate change, where increasing temperatures are a
significant manifestation of environmental changes. An immediate consequence is expected to be experienced
in the region's ecosystems since temperature alterations can disturb the fragile equilibrium of plant and animal
life that have adapted to particular climate conditions. These changes can potentially impact the movement of
organisms, the timing of reproductive cycles, and the overall diversity of life in the area. The average annual
mean maximum temperature over the Kashmir valley increased by 20C between 1980 to 2020 (0.50 per
decade), according to a July 2021 study published in Science Direct, mirroring and outstripping a 0.20C rise
per decade recorded by a 2016 study of mean, maximum and minimum temperatures over the subcontinent
between 1981 and 2010. Temperature fluctuations significantly impact water supplies, which are crucial for
human consumption and agriculture. Elevated temperatures can expedite the melting of snow and glaciers,
influencing the timing and volume of water discharge into rivers and streams. This might result in difficulties
associated with water scarcity, impacting not just agricultural activities but also the provision of domestic water
and other vital services. The agriculture sector, which constitutes a substantial portion of the local economy, is
especially responsive to fluctuations in temperature. Elevated temperatures also have the potential to modify
the duration of growing seasons, impact the productivity of crops, and contribute to the proliferation of pests
and diseases. Farmers may need to modify conventional methods by introducing heat-resistant crop types and
modifying planting schedules to coincide with the shifting climate. Furthermore, the perceived rise in
temperature highlights the pressing need for communities to implement adaptive measures and participate in
sustainable practices from a wider social perspective. This encompasses efforts to improve water management,
advocate for energy conservation, and increase public knowledge of the consequences of climate change. The
local population seems highly sensitive to alterations in their immediate surroundings, expressing a desire to
engage in community-driven initiatives to tackle the difficulties presented by escalating temperatures. The
study confirms the variability of climate patterns and indicates an increased awareness of the possible
consequences for ecosystems, water supplies, and agriculture.
d) Stream Discharge Change
Approximately 60% of the respondents had observed a decline in the flow of stream discharge. This indicates
a shared concern about the decreasing availability of water and the potential consequences for local ecosystems.
These views, as seen from the people's point of view, have important ramifications for many areas vital to their
everyday life. The respondents are particularly concerned about water supply due to their perception of a
decrease in stream discharge. In the agrarian region of the Kashmir Valley, where agriculture is the main source
of income, stream water plays a crucial role in providing irrigation. On 14 September 2023, the water level at
Sangam, the main measuring point for the Jhelum River in Srinagar, reached a historic low of 0.01 ft, which in
2022 was 0.50 ft. This decline marks the lowest September measurement in the past 70 years. The observed
decrease in stream discharge may result in water scarcity for crops, impacting yields and overall agricultural
production, due to which farmers might have to change their methods to deal with a decreasing water supply.
These concerns go beyond agriculture to include the ecosystem as a whole. With less water flowing through
the streams, local ecosystems—including the plants and animals that depend on them for survival—may find
it difficult to maintain their habitats. The observed decrease in stream discharge has the potential to disturb the
intricate equilibrium of aquatic ecosystems, resulting in a negative impact on biodiversity and potentially
leading to the extinction of crucial species. Moreover, alterations in stream discharge have consequences for
hydropower generation, a substantial energy source in the area. The results of the study are in conformity with
the research carried out by (Bolch et al., 2012; Kulkarni and Karyakarte, 2013) regarding the rapid depletion
of glaciers in the Himalayas and its projected consequences on stream flows have garnered significant interest
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from researchers in recent decades, raising concerns within the scientific and political arenas. The observed
decline may give rise to apprehensions over the long-term viability of hydropower initiatives, impacting both
energy generation and the dependability of electricity provision for local residents. From the perspective of
water security, the apparent decrease in water flow in streams contributes to the general concern regarding the
supply of clean and easily available water for drinking and household purposes. To solve these challenges,
communities may need to consider other water sources or allocate resources toward water conservation
initiatives. Overall, the observed decline in stream discharge, as reported by most participants, signifies the
community's concern regarding the actual effects on water supply, local ecosystems, farming, and energy
generation. These issues are not just theoretical; they impact the livelihoods and general well-being of the
people living in the Kashmir Himalayas.
3.Change in Extreme Weather Events and Agricultural Production: -
e) Extreme Weather Events Change
The study highlights a significant apprehension among respondents in the Kashmir Valley regarding the
escalating occurrence and severity of extreme weather events over a period of time. A significant majority of
72% of respondents indicate that natural occurrences such as extreme precipitation, cloudbursts, windstorms,
hailstorms, frequent droughts, flash floods, and similar events have increased frequency and intensity within
the region. Of all these occurrences, hailstorms are becoming more common, especially in cold and high-
altitude areas (Bedka et al., 2018; Mahoney et al., 2012; Allen and Allen 2016; Schlie et al., 2019; Akbar et
al., 2023, Shafi et al., 2023). The current study closely resembles the work of Roy et al. (2004), who noted a
noticeable increase in extreme precipitation events in nearby regions from the NWH in Kashmir to the Deccan
plateau in India between 1910 and 2000. Increased extreme precipitation events in the Kashmir Valley can
have profound and multifaceted consequences. It heightens the risk of flooding, as heavy rainfall can
overwhelm rivers and water bodies, leading to flash floods and inundation of low-lying areas. This poses a
threat to homes, infrastructure, and agricultural lands. The region's topography, characterized by steep slopes,
makes it susceptible to landslides during intense precipitation, resulting in further damage to property and
posing risks to lives. Infrastructure, including roads and bridges, is vulnerable to the erosive forces of increased
rainfall, leading to disruptions in transportation and communication networks. The diverse range of extreme
weather events mentioned, from cloudbursts to droughts and flash floods, highlights the complexity of the
challenges faced by the Kashmir Valley, e.g., the occurrence of hailstorms has been significantly damaging
crops and infrastructure resulting in huge losses (Shafi et al., 2023). Once considered rare, these events are
now perceived as more frequent and intense, pointing towards a shift in the region's climate dynamics.
f) Agricultural Production Change
The data from the table reveals a mixed perception among respondents in the Kashmir Himalayas regarding
alterations in agricultural productivity. Although 18% of individuals see a rise, a significant majority of 60%
perceive that there has been a decline. The results of the study are in conformity with the works of Parry et al
(2004), who analysed that the decrease in agricultural production of a region is linked with the increase or
change in extreme weather events from time to time. This contrasting view reflects the community's different
understanding of how environmental changes affect agriculture. Personal experiences, perceptions, and
interpretations of the changing situations in the region likely influence the differing viewpoints of individuals.
The 18% who observe a rise in agricultural output may attribute this to favourable weather conditions, enhanced
farming techniques, or the implementation of resilient crop types. These individuals might have observed
prosperous harvests, enhanced yields, or improvements in agricultural methods in their areas. Their perception
of a favourable agricultural production trend can promote hope and adaptability in response to environmental
fluctuations. Conversely, the majority (60%) observing a decline in agricultural output indicates worries and
difficulties the farming community faces. From their perspective, temperature fluctuations, precipitation
patterns, or other environmental conditions may adversely affect agricultural productivity. Economic hardship
and a sense of vulnerability might result from experiences with crop failure, lower yields, or difficulties
adjusting to changing conditions. The diverse view highlights the complex correlation between environmental
changes and agricultural productivity. Community experiences and local climate conditions influence the
different perspectives. It is crucial to acknowledge that such perceptions can also be impacted by additional
factors, such as socio-economic circumstances, the availability of resources, and the human ability to cope with
challenges. From a community perspective, the varied perception demands implementing adaptive measures
that consider the potential advantages and difficulties linked to altering environmental conditions.
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Fig.2: Pie diagrams showing climate change manifestations.
Discussion
Over the course of time, the people of Kashmir Valley have perceived a noticeable decrease in rainfall. This
decline in rainfall has far-reaching implications for the region, given that Kashmir heavily relies on
precipitation for various aspects of its ecosystem, including agriculture, water resources, and overall
environmental balance. People believe that reduced rainfall can lead to water scarcity, affecting crops and
potentially impacting the local population's livelihoods. This reduction in precipitation is particularly evident
during the winter season having far-reaching implications for various sectors of the economy. The once-
predictable rainfall pattern has become more erratic, with significant variations observed in the seasonal
distribution of precipitation. The consequences of this changing climate dynamic are tangible, especially in the
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agricultural sector (Manuel, L et al (2021). Moreover, the variability in rainfall has led to a decline in the
number of people engaged in paddy cultivation, further impacting the region's agricultural landscape. The
overall agriculture sector has been severely affected by unseasonal rainfall, posing challenges to crop yields
and livelihoods. These shifts in rainfall patterns underscore the vulnerability of the Kashmir Valley to changing
climatic conditions, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies and sustainable agricultural practices to
mitigate the impacts on both the economy and the livelihoods in the region.
The Kashmir Valley is renowned for its winter landscapes. It heavily depends on snowfall for its water supply,
especially during the dry summer when melting snow contributes to river flows. The significance of the
meltwater derived from snow and glacier cover can't be underestimated in terms of its impact on local, regional,
and sub-continental water resources. It is estimated that this meltwater contributes to around 60–70% of the
total annual flow of rivers (Bhandari N. and Nijampurkar V.N., 1981). One significant benefit of glacial runoff
is its ability to regulate water supply during drought. Glaciers release huge quantities of water during drought
and smaller amounts during flood years, ensuring a consistent water supply even during lean years.
Additionally, it is important to note that a warmer climate can expedite the hydrologic cycle, leading to changes
in rainfall patterns and the magnitude and timing of run-off (Ul, I. Z., et al., (2015). The diminishing snowfall
raises concerns not only for the region's water resources but also for its tourism industry, as the picturesque
snow-clad landscapes attract visitors worldwide. (Romshoo et al. (2015) observed changes in snow
precipitation and snowmelt runoff in the Kashmir valley and attributed the observed depletion of stream flow
to the changing climate in the region. The changing snowfall patterns in the Kashmir Valley underscore the
region's vulnerability to climate-induced shifts, necessitating adaptive measures and comprehensive strategies
to mitigate the impacts on agriculture and water resources. The untimely snowfall disrupts the natural
agricultural cycle and challenges the growth and development of crops. Conversely, late snowfall negatively
impacts agricultural output, affecting the timing of planting and potentially impacting yields.
Numerous studies (Shafiq et al. (2019) and Romshoo et al., (2015) and the perceptions of the local population
indicate a steady rise in the temperature across Kashmir valley, having far-reaching ecological, environmental,
and economic implications. As the Kashmir valley has a rich repository of glaciers with its annual share of
precipitation, slight changes in the temperature and precipitation regime has far-reaching environmental and
economic consequences. The Kashmir Himalayas exhibit significant and pronounced signs of global warming,
including rising temperatures, accelerated melting of snow and glaciers, reduced snowfall, and declining stream
flows (Dar and Romshoo, 2012). Recent research findings indicate a decline in snowfall in the Lidder basin
due to rising temperatures (Mishra and Rafiq, 2016; Romshoo et al., 2015). Consequently, this reduction in
snow accumulation on the glaciers has resulted in a negative glacier mass balance (Murtaza and Romshoo,
2017). The nexus between rising temperatures and decreasing stream discharge is a complex interplay that
demands careful consideration. The increasing average annual temperature in the Kashmir Valley is a
considerable concern. This temperature rise can have multifaceted impacts on the local environment,
agriculture, and overall ecosystem. On 1 September 2023, Srinagar experienced its second-hottest September
day ever recorded, with temperatures reaching 34.20C, 60C above the normal for this time of year. Warmer
temperatures may contribute to changes in precipitation patterns, affecting the water cycle and exacerbating
issues related to water scarcity. Changes in temperature can influence flora and fauna, impacting biodiversity
and potentially leading to shifts in vegetation patterns. For a region heavily reliant on agriculture, such
alterations can pose challenges to crop yields and agricultural practices, affecting the livelihoods of the local
population.
Moreover, people’s perception overwhelmingly indicates that the region is witnessing a significant reduction
in stream discharge due to the changing climate. The perception of a decline in stream discharge indicates
potential challenges in water availability and management. Reduced stream discharge can affect irrigation,
drinking water supply, and other water-dependent sectors. This decline might be linked to precipitation
patterns, melting snow cover, or alterations in the overall hydrological cycle. Farmers have been compelled to
adapt to these evolving conditions, necessitating adjustments in the types of crops cultivated and their planting
schedules. Beyond the agricultural sector, the diminished flow and levels of water bodies have had detrimental
effects on aquatic life, impacting habitats and biodiversity.
People’s perception in Kashmir Valley indicates a significant rise in the frequency of severe weather
phenomena, such as flash floods, droughts, cloudbursts, windstorms, and hailstorms. The valley of Kashmir
has its own unique microclimate, and the signs of shifting weather patterns within this area are easily
recognizable (Romshoo et al., 2017). This perception of a changing climate has tangible impacts on the daily
lives and livelihoods of the local population. The change in climatic patterns has forced individuals to modify
their adaptation strategies in response to increased frequency and intensification of these events. In recent years,
there has been an observed increase in the intensity and frequency of flash floods, which can be attributed to
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the occurrence of unpredictable and irregular events of heavy rainfall. The increased severity and frequency of
droughts emphasize the climate-related difficulties experienced in the region, affecting both water resources
and agricultural practices. Furthermore, the Kashmir Valley has witnessed an escalation in the magnitude and
recurrence of hailstorms (Shafi et al.,2023) and windstorms, which present risks to agricultural produce,
infrastructure, and the general welfare of the indigenous populations. The increasing frequency of cloudbursts,
characterized by abrupt and heavy precipitation, brings another level of vulnerability to the area. The
aforementioned shifts in extreme weather occurrences highlight the pressing necessity for comprehensive
climate resilience strategies and adaptive measures to mitigate the effects on the ecosystem and the well-being
of the Kashmiri population. The data highlights a notable apprehension among respondents in the Kashmir
Valley regarding the escalating occurrence and severity of extreme weather phenomena over a period of time.
The agricultural landscape of the Kashmir Valley is experiencing considerable challenges due to the adverse
effects of changing weather patterns. The early flowering in fruit trees, crucial for successful productivity, is
increasingly susceptible to the erratic weather conditions in the early spring, particularly in March. This
climatic unpredictability has led to a decline in overall production, as recurrent droughts have further
compounded farmers' challenges. The negative impact of unseasonal and erratic rainfall on agricultural output
is evident, disrupting the normal cropping calendar and contributing to decreased production. Climate-induced
shifts in the cropping calendar have resulted in altered planting and harvesting schedules, exacerbating the
decrease in overall production. Insufficient precipitation and poor irrigation practices have also reduced paddy
cultivation, affecting a key component of the region's agricultural output. The untimely occurrence of rainfall
during the harvest season has added to the complexities, negatively influencing the overall production of crops.
Furthermore, snowfall in early October has emerged as an unexpected challenge, significantly impacting
agricultural productivity and highlighting the vulnerability of the Kashmir Valley's agriculture to changing
climate conditions. These multifaceted challenges underscore the urgent need for adaptive strategies and
sustainable agricultural practices to safeguard the livelihoods of the farming community in the region.
Fig.3: Climate Change Manifestations
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In the above Fig. 3, pic. (a) depicts the change in rainfall as there are no signs of rainfall even in the month of
December 2023 & pic. (b) illustrates the contrast in snowfall, showing a barren Gulmarg in December (left)
compared to the valley covered in snow. Similarly, pic. (c) exhibits change in temperature which is clear from
the fact that the saffron industry in Kashmir has been affected by the dual impact of increasing temperatures
(2022) & pic. (d) indicates a decrease in stream discharge as water levels on the Jhelum River have dropped to
a 70-year low, leaving a houseboat stranded for the first time in over a century (2022). Finally, pic. (e) shows
that extreme weather events, such as hailstorms, are causing evident damage to agriculture and horticulture in
Baramullah (2023) & the paddy fields in South Kashmir dried up entirely as a result of changes in different
manifestations of climate change, as seen in pic. (f), which displays the entire impact on agriculture (2022).
Conclusion
Climate change poses global challenges with profound economic, ecological, and hydrological impacts. The
fragile Kashmir Himalayas are significantly affected, experiencing elevated temperatures, erratic rainfall, and
intensified extreme weather events. Local perceptions are crucial in shaping responses and determining the
success of adaptation strategies. Over three decades, the Kashmir Valley has witnessed a perceived decline in
rainfall and snowfall, impacting agriculture and water resources, raising concerns about water scarcity and
jeopardizing livelihoods. Variability in rainfall has reduced paddy cultivation, altering the agricultural
landscape. Diminished snowfall further affects water availability, contributing to a decline in stream water.
Changing snowfall patterns highlight the region's vulnerability, necessitating adaptive measures. The Kashmir
Valley experiences noticeable climate shifts, with a steady temperature rise influencing fruit colouring and
disrupting the delicate balance of flora. Agriculture faces disruptions in planting schedules due to increasing
temperatures. Hydrological changes, including declining stream flow in late summer and autumn and increased
flow in spring, raise concerns about water resources, affecting irrigation and water-dependent sectors. The
region sees an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing threats to
infrastructure, agriculture, and the population's welfare. Changing climate conditions challenge the agricultural
landscape, affecting early flowering in fruit trees, disrupting cropping calendars, and decreasing production.
The Kashmir Valley faces complex challenges due to changing weather patterns induced by climate change.
Local perceptions, influenced by direct experiences, offer valuable insights for effective climate resilience and
adaptation strategies, crucial for formulating policies that resonate with the region's unique vulnerabilities and
experiences.
Acknowledgments:
The author express gratitude to University Grants Commission, New Delhi for providing financial assistance
under MANF 2019-20. The second author played a vital role in the conception or design of the work by giving
his valuable suggestions regarding data collection. The third author helped in drafting the article, data analysis
and interpretation and its timely critical revision.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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