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Special Economic Zones in South Asia
Growth‑enhancing structural change—a relocation of labour from low‑ to
high‑productivity sectors—is increasingly perceived as inextricably linked
with the sustainable development agenda. In the pursuit of structural change,
policymakers have pinned their hopes on targeted policy tools such as special
economic zones (SEZs). These geographically demarcated spaces designed
to attract investment with a wide set of advantages have become de rigueur;
however, a systematic evaluation of evidence‑informed policymaking is
scarce due to conceptual and practical challenges. This book fills that gap and
shows that SEZs are no ‘shortcut’ to economic development; their success in
driving economic transformation depends on the complex interplay of socio‑
political, economic and strategic factors.
This book contributes to the burgeoning literature on SEZs by providing
the first systematic evaluation of the SEZ policy. It adopts the ‘policy cycle
approach’ to organise policy evaluation into three hierarchical layers: input
evaluation (agenda building), output evaluation (policy designs) and outcome
evaluation (immediate eects of SEZs on firms’ behaviour and performance)
with special reference to South Asian countries. The strategy is to bring together
the findings of microeconomic evaluations to draw macro inferences on the
contribution of SEZs to the broader objectives of structural transformation
and competitiveness. Part I of the book delves into development challenges
facing the region, lays out theoretical foundations underlying the relevance of
SEZs in addressing them and examines the relevance of SEZs in the context
of South Asia. Part II evaluates the policy first at systemic level to gauge
whether and how the policy is rooted in broader development goals and then
at the design level to examine the fit between the policy goals and designs. Part
III presents a counterfactual evaluation of the impact of SEZs on investment
climate; export competitiveness of firms; technology and innovation; and
knowledge linkages of SEZ firms with the wider economy. The final chapter
concludes by discussing the emerging challenges and the way forward.
This will be a useful reference for academics, researchers, policymakers
and professionals in international trade and business, public policy, industrial
economics and regional integration.
Aradhna Aggarwal is a Full Professor of Economics in the Department of
International Economics, Government and Business, Copenhagen Business
School, Copenhagen, Denmark.
184 State, Market and Society in an Emerging Economy
Development and the Political Economy of Bangladesh
Edited by Quamrul Alam, Rizwan Khair and Asif M Shahan
185 Capital Structure, Equity Ownership and Corporate Performance
Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms
Krishna Dayal Pandey and Tarak Nath Sahu
186 SMEs and Economic Development in Africa
Edited by Gift Mugano and Nirmala Dorasamy
187 Economics, Religion and Happiness
God, Mammon and the Search for Spiritual and Financial Wealth
Vani Kant Borooah
188 Economic Growth in Middle‑Income Countries
A Theoretical and Empirical Approach to Development
in Turbulent Times
Manuel Agosin
189 Cuba and the Economic Policies of Peripheral Socialism
Recent Reforms in a Historical Perspective
Vitor Eduardo Schincariol and Joana Salém Vasconcelos
190 Corruption and Economic Growth in Africa
The Impact on Development
David N. Abdulai
191 Special Economic Zones in South Asia
Structural Change, Competitiveness and Growth
Aradhna Aggarwal
Routledge Studies in Development Economics
For more information about this series, please visit: www.routledge.com/Routledge‑Studies‑
in‑Development‑Economics/book‑series/SE0266
Special Economic Zones
in South Asia
Structural Change, Competitiveness
and Growth
Aradhna Aggarwal
First published 2024
by Routledge
4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2024 Aradhna Aggarwal
The right of Aradhna Aggarwal to be identified as author of this work has
been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs
and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or
in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or
registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation
without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing‑in‑Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging‑in‑Publication Data
Names: Aggarwal, Aradhna, author.
Title: Special economic zones in South Asia : structural change,
competitiveness and growth / Aradhna Aggarwal.
Description: Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge,
Taylor & Francis
Group 2024. | Series: Routledge studies in development economics |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2023042186 (print) | LCCN 2023042187
(ebook) | ISBN 9781032587752 (hardback) | ISBN 9781032587769
(paperback) | ISBN 9781003451426 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: Free ports and zones—Asia, South. | Economic
development—Asia, South. | Asia, South—Economic conditions.
Classification: LCC HF1418.3.A783 A44 2024 (print) | LCC
HF1418.3.A783 (ebook) | DDC 338.954—dc23/eng/20231207
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2023042186
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2023042187
ISBN: 978‑1‑032‑58775‑2 (hbk)
ISBN: 978‑1‑032‑58776‑9 (pbk)
ISBN: 978‑1‑003‑45142‑6 (ebk)
DOI: 10.4324/9781003451426
Typeset in Sabon
by codeMantra
Contents
List of figures xi
List of tables xiii
Preface xv
1 Introduction 1
1.1 SEZs for Structural Change, Growth and
Competitiveness 1
1.2 SEZs: A Policy in Need of Evaluation 5
1.3 Objectives of the Study 6
1.4 South Asia and the SEZ Policy: A Brief Introduction 9
1.5 Organisation of the Study 11
PART I
Input Assessment 15
2 Economic Growth Accelerations in South Asia 17
2.1 Long‑Term Patterns of the Regional Economic Growth 18
2.1.1 The Colonial Period—An Overview 18
2.1.2 The Post‑Independence Period 19
2.2 Is the Region Catching Up? 25
2.3 How Have Individual Countries Performed? 26
2.4 Concluding Observations 30
3 Growth Acceleration and Patterns and Pace
of Structural Change 32
3.1 Growth and Structural Change: Theoretical Reflections 33
3.2 Structural Change in South Asia: Preliminary
Observations 35
3.3 Decomposition Analysis 40
3.4 To Sum Up 47
vi Contents
4 International Competitiveness: Export Growth,
Diversification and Upgrading 49
4.1 Globalisation and Export Competitiveness:
Theoretical Predictions 50
4.2 Export Growth Patterns 51
4.3 The Composition of Exports Shares at SITC Four‑Digit
Level: Specialised or Diversified? 54
4.4 Exports Upgrading 60
4.4.1 Export Patterns by Technology Content 60
4.4.2 Revealed Comparative Advantages by Technology
Content 63
4.4.3 Export Patterns by Product Complexity 64
4.5 Major Findings 67
5 SEZs as a Development Policy: Revisiting the
Place‑Based Approach 69
5.1 Types of Industrial Hubs and Their Evolution 70
5.1.1 Naturally Grown Industrial Clusters 70
5.1.2 General Economic Zones 72
5.1.3 Special Economic Zones 73
5.2 SEZs: Place‑Based Approach Revisited 74
5.3 The Debate Rages on 78
6 Economic Rationale of SEZs in South Asia:
The Institutional Perspective 81
6.1 Physical Features 82
6.2 Resource Availability and Endowments 84
6.3 Economic Institutions 84
6.3.1 The World Governance Index 85
6.3.2 The World Bank’s EoDB 86
6.3.3 Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) 86
6.3.4 Global Innovation Index (GII) 88
6.4 Why Do Low‑Quality Institutions Persist in the
Region? 89
6.4.1 Social and Cultural Institutions 89
6.4.2 Political Institutions 91
6.4.3 Regional Institutions 92
6.5 Growth Impeding Institutions and SEZs 92
Contents vii
PART II
Output Assessment 95
7 The SEZ Policy in India: A Flip‑Flop Approach 97
7.1 Import‑Substituting Regime (1951–1980) 98
7.1.1 Growth with a Focus on Small Industries
(1950–1951 to 1956–1957) 98
7.1.2 Heavy Industrialisation‑Based Growth, Foreign
Exchange Crisis (1956–1957 to 1967–1968) 100
7.1.3 Growth with Social Justice and Regional
Development (1968–1980) 101
7.2 Cautious Reforms: 1980–1990 101
7.3 Liberalisation and Globalisation 1991– 102
7.3.1 First Phase of Economic Liberalisation
(1991–2000) 103
7.3.2 The Second Phase of Reforms (2000–2014) 104
7.3.3 The Third Phase of Reforms (2014–) 106
7.4 SEZs: The Current Status 108
7.5 SEZs: Victims of the Flip‑Flop Approach 109
8 Evolution of SEZ Policy in Sri Lanka: An Interplay of
Political and Economic Dynamics 111
8.1 The Open Trade Regime (1948–1956) 112
8.2 Import‑Substituting Regime (1957–1977) 112
8.2.1 Socialist Regime (1957–1965) 112
8.2.2 A Liberal Import‑Substituting Regime
(1965–1970) 114
8.2.3 Dirigiste Import‑Substituting Regime
(1970–1977) 114
8.3 Shift from Import to Export‑Oriented Regime
(1977–2005) 115
8.3.1 Initial Phase of Economic Reforms 115
8.3.2 Acceleration of Policy Reforms
(1990–2000) 116
8.3.3 Policy Ad‑Hocism (2000–2005) 118
8.4 Internally Oriented Regime (2005–) 118
8.4.1 Inward‑Looking Approach (2005–) 118
8.4.2 Shift in the Economic Strategy (2015–) 120
viii Contents
8.5 An Overview of the SEZs and Their Performance 120
8.6 The Assessment 122
9 SEZ Policy in Pakistan: A Passive Approach 124
9.1 Pakistan at Independence 124
9.2 Import‑Substituting Regime (1947–1988) 124
9.2.1 The First Phase (1947–1959) 124
9.2.2 Well Targeted Industrialisation Drive
(1958–1970) 127
9.2.3 Dirigiste Regime (1970–1977) 128
9.3 Cautious Liberalisation (1977–1988) 129
9.4 Increasingly Liberalised Policy Regime (1988–) 131
9.4.1 Shift from Import‑Substituting to Export‑Oriented
Regime (1988–2000) 131
9.4.2 Military Rule and Second Phase of Economic
Reforms: 2000–2008 131
9.4.3 Democratic Transition and Industrialisation Drive
2008– 132
9.5 SEZs: Performance and the Current SEZ Activism 134
9.6 Late Awakening 135
10 Bangladesh: Driving SEZ Centric Industrialisation 137
10.1 The East Pakistan Economic Stagnation Regime:
1947–1971 137
10.2 Import‑Substituting Regime: 1971–1991 139
10.3 Shift to Export‑Oriented Regime : 1991– 141
10.4 The Changing Landscape of SEZs in Bangladesh 145
10.5 Bangladesh SEZ Policy: Experiential But Overly
Ambitious 147
10.6 The Overall Assessment of the Policy in South Asia 148
11 Assessing the SEZ Policy Design Fit with Its
Evolutionary Dynamics 152
11.1 Fit Between Policy Goals and Design: The Criteria 153
11.2 Assessment of the Structural Features 154
11.3 Legal and Institutional Frameworks 157
11.3.1 Legal Framework 157
11.3.2 The Institutional Structure 158
11.4 Incentive Structure 163
11.5 The Assessment 169
Contents ix
PART III
Outcome Assessment 173
12 Evaluating the Impact of SEZs on Investment Climate 175
12.1 The Context 175
12.2 The Hypothesis 176
12.3 Data 177
12.4 Methodology 178
12.5 Empirical Results 180
12.5.1 Institutions 180
12.5.2 Proximate Factors 183
12.6 Discussion and Implications 190
13 SEZs, Investment Climate and Competitiveness 192
13.1 Background 192
13.2 SEZs, Investment Climate and Export Competitiveness:
Theoretical Reflections and Hypotheses 193
13.3 Export Competitiveness of SEZ Firms 194
13.3.1 Measures, Methodology and Data Sample 194
13.3.2 Are SEZs Firms More Competitive?: Empirical
Results 195
13.4 Competitiveness and Investment Climate 197
13.4.1 Measures, Methodology and Data 198
13.4.2 Investment Climate and Export Competitiveness:
Empirical Results 201
13.5 Investment Climate and Export Competitiveness:
The Mediating Role of SEZs 208
13.6 Conclusion 209
14 Building Technological Capabilities Through SEZs 211
14.1 Background 211
14.2 SEZ Technology and Industrial Diversification:
The Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses 213
14.2.1 SEZ Firms and Technology Acquisition 213
14.2.2 Assimilation of Foreign Technology 214
14.2.3 Innovation Capabilities 215
14.2.4 Novelty of Innovations 215
14.3 Data and Methodology 216
14.4 Empirical Results 218
14.4.1 Technology Acquisition (H1a and H1b ) 218
x Contents
14.4.2 Technology Assimilation (H2a and H2b ) 218
14.4.3 Innovations (H3a and H3b ) 220
14.4.4 Novelty (H4 and H5) 222
14.5 Conclusion 226
15 Linkages for Knowledge Spillovers 228
15.1 Literature Review 228
15.2 Conceptual Framework 229
15.3 Methodological Strategy 234
15.4 Empirical Results 234
15.4.1 Backward Linkages 234
15.4.2 Knowledge Networks’ Linkages 235
15.4.3 Labour Mobility Linkage 238
15.5 Discussion 240
16 Sustainability Standards in SEZs: Is It Race to the Bottom? 241
16.1 Background 241
16.2 Labour and Environment Standards in SEZs:
Research Questions 242
16.2.1 Employment Generation 242
16.2.2 Productive and Decent Employment 243
16.2.3 Inclusive Employment from Gender
Perspective 245
16.2.4 Environment 248
16.3 Labour and Environment Standards in South Asian SEZs:
The Legal Perspective 249
16.3.1 Labour Standards 249
16.3.2 Environment Standards 251
16.4 Labour and Environment Standards: Empirical
Analysis 252
16.4.1 Data and Methodology 252
16.4.2 Empirical Results 253
16.5 Conclusion 260
17 The Concluding Remarks 263
17.1 Summary of Findings 263
17.2 Lessons Learned 271
17.3 Challenges and Future Directions 274
References 277
Index 315
Figures
1.1 Objectives of the study 7
2.1 Global and South Asian GDP per capita and GDP per
capita growth (%): 1960–2020 21
2.2 KoF De jure Index of globalisation in South Asia by country 23
2.3 Average decadal rate of GDP per capita growth and GDP
per capita by region: 1980–2019 24
2.4 Regional trends in catching up 25
2.5 Patterns in GDP per capita growth in South Asian
economies: 1960–2019 28
3.1 Sectoral Employment and GDP shares: Bangladesh, India
and Sri Lanka 36
3.2 Sectoral Employment and GDP shares: Bhutan and Nepal 38
3.3 Sectoral employment and GDP shares: Afghanistan,
Maldives and Pakistan 39
3.4 Decomposition of GDP per capita growth (%) in countries
that experienced growth acceleration: 1990–2018 42
3.5 Decomposition of GDP per capita growth (%) in countries
that experienced deceleration: Maldives, Pakistan and
Afghanistan 43
3.6 Decomposition of productivity growth by country: 1990–2018 44
4.1 Long‑term trends in export growth rate by country: 1960–2020 54
4.2 Long‑term trends in entropy measure of export
diversification by country: 1960–2020 55
4.3 Long‑term trends in four product concentration
ratios in exports by country: 1960–2022 57
4.4 Decomposition of entropy measure of economic
diversification by country: 1960–2020 60
4.5 Export shares by technology content in each regional
economy: 1960–2020 62
4.6 The number of three‑digit exports and high RCA exports
by country: 1960–2020 65
xii Figures
5.1 Taxonomy of industrial hubs 71
5.2 SEZs and economic development: The underlying channels 78
6.1 Governance index average percentile ranks: 2014–2019 85
13.1 Graphical representation of the PLS‑SEM model 201
14.1 Building technological capability at firm‑level: The
analytical framework 217
Tables
1.1 Demographic, social and economic characteristics:
South Asia vs. other regions 10
2.1 Average annual growth rates by growth phase in
South Asian economies (%) 27
4.1 Summary statistics of export performance of the regional
economies: 1971–2021 52
4.2 Export shares and RCA of top ten products in India,
Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka 58
4.3 Export shares and RCA of top ten products in Nepal,
Bhutan, Maldives and Afghanistan 59
4.4 Number of complex products in export basket by country:
2016–2018 66
6.1 Economic and demographic characteristics of South Asian
countries 83
6.2 Ease of doing Business: 2019 rankings of South Asian economies 87
6.3 Rankings of South Asian countries in selected indicators of
competitiveness: 2019 88
6.4 Rankings of South Asian countries in Global Innovation
Index: 2020 89
7.1 Evolution of the economic zone policy with broader
development goals in India 99
7.2 Growth of India’s SEZs 2000–2022 107
8.1 Evolution of SEZ policy and broader development goals in
Sri Lanka 113
8.2 EPZs in Sri Lanka as of the end 2020 122
9.1 Evolution in the economic zones policy and broader
development goals of Pakistan 125
9.2 The number of economic zones in Pakistan by province 134
9.3 The newly notified SEZs in Pakistan: area, and jobs
creation as of October 2022 136
10.1 Evolution in the EZs policy in Bangladesh 138
10.2 Spatial distribution of EZs in Bangladesh as of October 2022 146
10.3 The profile and performance of EPZs in Bangladesh 148
10.4 Summary of the Author’s assessment of SEZ policy in South
Asian countries 150
xiv Tables
11.1 Critical success features of SEZ policy designs by major goals 154
11.2 The legal and institutional frameworks of EPZs and SEZs 161
11.3 Direct and indirect tax benefits in EPZs and SEZs 165
12.1 Impact of SEZs on governance: counterfactual evaluation
results 181
12.2 Impact of SEZs on tax facilitation: counterfactual
evaluation results 184
12.3 Impact of SEZs on onsite infrastructure: Counterfactual
evaluation results 185
12.4 Locational advantages of SEZs: counterfactual evaluation
results 188
13.1 Export competitiveness of SEZ firms vis‑a‑vis non‑SEZ
firms: Empirical results 196
13.2 Indicators of investment climate 199
13.3 Export performance of firms and investment climate:
Bootstrap Regression results 202
13.4 Various assessment aspects and criterion for reflective
measurement model assessment 205
13.5 Factor loadings 205
13.6 Robustness checks 207
13.7 Investment climate and export competitiveness: the
structural model results for SEZ vs. non‑SEZ firms 208
14.1 Distribution of sample firms 217
14.2 Impact of SEZs on technology acquisition and assimilation:
Counterfactual evaluation results 219
14.3 SEZs and product and process innovation: Counterfactual
evaluation results 221
14.4 Impact of SEZs on organisational and marketing
innovation: Counterfactual evaluation results 223
14.5 Impact of SEZs on the novelty of main innovation:
Counterfactual evaluation results 224
14.6 Impact of SEZs on patents, trademarks, copyrights and
industrial design: Counterfactual evaluation results 225
15.1 Backward linkages between the SEZs and domestic
economy: Counterfactual evaluation results 235
15.2 Knowledge networks linkages and SEZs: Counterfactual
evaluation results 236
15.3 SEZs and Labour mobility linkages: Counterfactual
evaluation results 239
16.1 Employment eects of SEZs: Firm‑level counterfactual
evaluation results 254
16.2 Impact of SEZs on skills and training at the firm level:
Counterfactual evaluation results 256
16.3 Female employment and SEZs: Counterfactual evaluation
results 259
16.4 Impact of SEZs on firms’ environmentally responsible
practices: Counterfactual evaluation results 261
This book is the outcome of my research on SEZs for almost two decades.
In 2004, when I was awarded a project by the South Asian Network of
Economic Institutes (SANEI) to conduct my first study on SEZs, little did I
know that I was embarking on a long exploratory and amazing journey of
research on these zones. Over these years, I have seen a remarkable transfor‑
mation in the attitude towards SEZs, approaches and practices in SEZ policy
making, and academic and advocacy research on SEZs. My academic and
more importantly consultancy research projects funded by various interna‑
tional agencies including the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB),
UNDP, UNCTAD, UNIDO and UNESCAP oered me opportunities to visit
the SEZs of several countries, including India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, South
Korea, China PRC, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, The Philippines, Turkey,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Dubai and Ethiopia, and
conduct comprehensive interviews with bureaucrats, developers, entrepre‑
neurs and in some cases workers also. My experience was further enriched
by presentations in academic conferences and seminars, on the one hand,
and invited talks in various policy forums as well as training workshops con‑
ducted by international agencies and attended by bureaucrats, academicians,
researchers, journalists and students, on the other hand. I produced a series of
research articles, newspaper articles, reports, blogs as well as a monograph.
A growing number of countries are increasingly focusing upon SEZs as
engines of industrialisation. Several countries are upgrading their SEZs into
mega‑industrial zones with generous incentives to take advantage of the po‑
tential that these zones have. Even though success is mixed, the global mush‑
rooming of SEZs reflects the unfailing confidence of governments in their
usefulness. Indeed, over the years, the literature has also spawned a signifi‑
cant amount of academic research which continues to grow at a rapid rate to
guide policymakers on various dimensions of these zones. International agen‑
cies such as the World Bank, ADB, African Development Bank (AfDB) and
UNCTAD have also produced lengthy reports carrying recommendations on
how to create successful SEZs. Yet, there are important gaps that persist. The
micro‑foundations of SEZs are still not well explored. How they aect the
Preface
xvi Preface
firm’s perceptions, behaviour and performance is not known. The counter‑
factual analysis at the firm level is scarce due to the non‑availability of data.
This volume contributes to the burgeoning literature by providing
thefirstsystematic evaluation ofthe SEZ policy. It adopts the ‘policy cycle
approach’ to organise policy evaluation into three hierarchical layers: input
evaluation, output evaluation and outcome evaluation with special reference
to South Asian countries. The strategy is to bring together the findings of
these evaluations to draw macro inferences on the contribution of SEZs to
the macro‑level objectives of structural transformation and competitiveness
and the way forward.
Ideal for students, researchers or professionals, government ocials,
scholars, analysts and media experts, this book will provide a new perspec‑
tive to assess the SEZs and show them how to identify problems and develop
constructive questions. This study is a part of the project titled ‘Special eco‑
nomic zones: A force for good to reduce inequality?’ funded by Riksbankens
Jubileumsfond. My most sincere appreciation goes to Riksbanken Jubileums‑
fond for funding, Professor Holger Görg from the Institut für Weltwirtschaft
an der Universität Kiel, Germany, the project team leader, and the rest of the
project team consisting of researchers from Ghana, Vietnam and India for
their continued support through workshops and discussions. I express my
sincere gratitude to all those bureaucrats and investors who gave me useful
insights and also additional data in recent rounds of interactions. Finally,
Iwould be remiss in not mentioningmy husband who patiently bore me with
my long working hours and frequent absences from home. I dedicate this
volume to him.
DOI: 10.4324/9781003451426-1
1.1 SEZs for Structural Change, Growth and Competitiveness
Over the past few decades, the notion of ‘structural change’ has attracted
tremendous scholarly attention in the global quest for growth and sustain‑
able development. Based on the premise that labour markets in developing
countries are segmented between ‘more productive’ and ‘less productive’ jobs
(Hull 2009: 69), the emerging economic thinking under the rubric of new
structural economics emphasises that economic growth that is accompanied
by increased employment opportunities in ‘more productive’ sectors is more
likely to be economically sustained, socially inclusive and environmentally
benign (Alcorta et al. 2021, Herrendorf et al. 2014, Lin et al. 2011, Sen
2019, Silva and Teixeira 2008). More specifically, a distinction has been
made between the primary (agriculture), secondary (industry) and tertiary
(services) sectors of the economy, and the reallocation of economic activity
and resources (labour) away from the technologically backward and stagnant
primary sector to non‑primary high‑productivity sectors is broadly defined as
‘productivity‑enhancing structural change’. It is seen as the key to raising
productivity and competitiveness and in turn to fostering economic growth,
decent earnings and sustainable production and consumption patterns.
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development adopted at the United Na‑
tions Summit in 2015 dedicates Goal #8 to full and productive employment
and decent work for all by upgrading the economy through productivity‑
enhancing structural transformation. However, there is a growing realisation
that structural change is associated not only with productive employment but
also with all other SDGs including better health, poverty reduction, greater
equality and upgraded human and environmental capital. Thus, meeting the
2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is inextricably
linked with the process of structural change (UNIDO 2020).
Implicit in the notion of productivity‑enhancing structural change is an
increase in the relative share of industry and manufacturing in particular, in
aggregate macroeconomic indicators, i.e., GDP, employment and trade. Man‑
ufacturing oers a larger scope of capital accumulation, economies of scale,
inter‑sectoral linkages, embodied and disembodied technological progress
1 Introduction
2 Introduction
and exporting in the world markets than do other sectors, stimulating de‑
mand and the generation of externalities in technology development, skill
creation and learning. Services, on the other hand, are typically believed to
be intangible, less standardised and more prone to information asymmetries
between suppliers and consumers. They can involve personal interaction in
their delivery and are less benefitted by capital accumulation, economies of
scale and innovations. These intrinsic characteristics dampen their tradability
and reduce productivity. However, over the past few decades, the premium
on services has also increased due to the increasing servicification of manufac‑
turing which is propelled by digital technologies. Servicification refers tothe
increasing reliance of manufacturing on the utilisation of services as inputs,
as activities within firms or as output sold bundled with goods (National
Board of Trade 2016).1 Manufacturing is increasingly becoming a complex
mix of knowledge‑intensive high‑productivity tradable services all along the
value chain of a product. The upstream segment at the beginning of the man‑
ufacturing value chain relies on engineering services, designs, software de‑
velopment and innovation. The midstream segment is based on information
technology services (such as big data, cloud computing, internet of things,
artificial intelligence and digital platforms); financial services and business
and professional services while the downstream at the end of the global value
chains (GVC) requires logistics, network orchestration and after‑sales ser‑
vices. Manufacturing has come to be defined as ‘the full cycle of activities
from research and development, through design, production, logistics and
services, to end of life management’ (Livesey 2006: 6). These organisational
changes in manufacturing drive not only productive eciency and value crea‑
tion in this sector but also propel the growth of the high knowledge‑intensive
and tradable services (WEF 2018, Zhang 2022).
A critical development challenge facing policymakers in emerging and
developing countries is how to drive industrialisation and manufactur‑
ing in particular (UNECA 2016). Industrialisation is an arduous process.
It requires economic, institutional and technological transformation. It is
even more challenging for latecomer developing countries to industrialise
because the advanced countries have accumulated massive innovative and
productive capacities that give their firms an edge in continuously pushing
out the technological frontier through research and innovation. To leapfrog
thegapin knowledge and practice that separates them from the advancedna‑
tions, the late industrialising countries have been experimenting with dier‑
ent tools of economic development and have met with varying degrees of
success (Gerschenkron 1962, Smith 2002). In the contemporary world, the
role of GVCs in driving industrialisation and shaping structural transforma‑
tion has gained enormous attention from scholars and policymakers (Bald‑
win 2014). Although the GVCs emerged in the 1960s and led the process
of industrial transformation in some of the early industrialising developing
countries including South Korea, Chinese Taipei and Malaysia in Asia, since
the 2000s there has been an enormous leap in their geographical breadth,
Introduction 3
length and depth that has brought about revolutionary changes in the way
global production, investment and trade are organised across dierent geo‑
graphical spatiality, making them central to the discourse on industrialisa‑
tion and structural change.
The GVCs arise when multinational firms slice their production processes
into various stages and locate them in dierent localities across the globe
through oshoring and outsourcing, wherever necessary skills and materials
are available at competitive prices, linking the local economies across dif‑
ferent geographical regions through trade and investment to form the nexus
of functions, operations and transactions in which goods and services are
globally produced and distributed (Coe etal. 2004). Oshoring involves the
international relocation of parts/whole of production processes or service
activities abroad that companies previously performed in their home coun‑
try, through FDI while outsourcing is associated with subcontracting to an
external party within or outside the country. Outsourcing to vendors located
in a foreign country is termed ‘international‑ or oshore‑outsourcing’. Or‑
chestrated by MNCs these value chains have not only accelerated investment
and trade but also reshaped the way they are organised amongst geographic
locations across countries. Since 2000, there have been dramatic shifts in
the geography of manufacturing production, increasing the share of develop‑
ing countries in world manufacturing output from 19.5% to almost 51%
(Nayyar 2020). A significant part of the manufacturing GVCs is geared to‑
wards services which according to Miroudot and Cadestin (2017) contrib‑
ute 37% of the value of manufacturing exportsin value chains. If service
activities within manufacturing firms are also added, this share increases to
53% (see also, OECD 2014). Thus, the phenomenon of servicification of
manufacturing is intrinsically related to the servicification of GVCs and has
broadened the value‑added space for developing countries to integrate and
upgrade within the GVCs.
A preoccupation of most governments in developing countries is how to
integrate into these value chains and acquire as big a part of international
value‑added as possible. However, the degree of GVC participation varies
greatly across countries. There is a tendency to explain the success of develop‑
ing countries in GVCs’ participation in terms of their national competitiveness
which is driven by economic factors (such as policy reforms, improvements
in logistics and customs, factor endowment, intellectual property protec‑
tion and infrastructure development), social and political institutions and
geographical factors (including landlocked borders, climate, proximity to a
large economy and size) (OECD 2015, UNIDO 2018). This stream of lit‑
erature anchored in the mainstream growth theories advocates development
intervention at the national level through horizontal (people‑based) policies.
However, there is an emerging body of literature that focuses on place‑based
competencies as critical drivers of GVCs (Ascani etal. 2012). This literature
argues that the GVC‑dominated investment and trade development processes
unfold at the local level and are underpinned by local competitive advantages,
4 Introduction
spatial clustering and specialisation (Krugman 1995a, 1995b, Lagendijk
1995, Martin and Sunley 1996, Porter 1994, Rodríguez‑Pose 2011, Stor‑
per 1997), placing the phenomenon of localisation or agglomeration at the
centre of the GVC‑driven development process (Ascani etal. 2012, Barca
etal. 2012, Pike etal. 2006, Rodríguez‑Pose 2011, Smoke 2003). Motivated
by the endogenous growth theories, new trade theories and new economic
geography all of which are rooted in externalities, knowledge and increasing
returns to scale, this view stems from the recognition that highly dynamic
regional economies of industrial hubs draw extensively upon localised assets
for their competitiveness locked into a trinity of agglomeration economies:
(i) a local pool of skilled labour, local supplier linkages and local knowledge
spillovers along with reduced transaction costs, (ii) technological and skill
advantages associated with specialisation and (iii) the provisions of facilita‑
tive states (Bagnasco 1977, Piore and Sabel 1984, Scott and Storper 2003).
This perspective has brought the local development competencies embedded
essentially in industrial concentrations or hubs at the centre of globalisation
processes. Integration into GVCs is not only influenced by geographical in‑
dustrial hubs in the region but also in turn reinforces them through oshor‑
ing and/or oshore outsourcing and connects the region with foreign markets
and resources (Krugman 1991a, McCann and Acs 2011, Porter 1998).
Since emerging economies often lack ecient institutional apparatus, cap‑
ital, economic actors and extended infrastructure for the industrial hubs to
flourish in an organic way (Porter 1998: 86) state‑sponsored economic zones
are promoted by policymakers as geographically delineated territorial ar‑
eas designed to oer well‑developed industrial spaces (Rodrik 2004, Stiglitz
1998). However, it is increasingly recognised that infrastructure, utilities and
other business services are only the proximate factors of industrial growth;
it is the presence of strong institutions that is a fundamental cause of growth
(Rodrik 2003, Rodrik etal. 2004). An increasing number of countries have
therefore opted to set up special economic zone (SEZs) as attractive sites for
GVC‑linked investment. These are specialised economic zones which oer in‑
vestors a bundle of business‑friendly institutions and streamlined procedures
as a special feature, in addition to good infrastructure, utilities, tax incentives
and a dedicated administrative body (Aggarwal 2017, FIAS 2008).
Riding on the success of their SEZs, several countries have succeeded
in driving FDI, exports, production and employment through GVC par‑
ticipation. However, it is the phenomenal success of Chinese SEZs that
has demonstrated the potential of SEZs in achieving far‑reaching struc‑
tural transformation in emerging economies. China has increased its share
in world manufacturing value‑added output from 6% to 28.7% between
2000 and 2019 and achieved historically unparalleled economic growth in
the world economic history, crossing two income thresholds to enter the
upper middle‑income category in a short period of 30 years (Zheng and
Aggarwal 2020). The SEZs have also become a central force underlying the
emergence of the Chinses metropolises and their transformation into global
Introduction 5
cities. Inspired by the success of Chinese SEZs, policymakers across the globe
are increasingly relying on SEZs for industrial transformation in their coun‑
tries. Over the past two decades, the SEZs have seen a meteoric rise in their
popularity as a development policy tool. Their objective is not merely to
attract FDI, promote trade and foreign exchange earnings and generate em‑
ployment; they are increasingly being used for promoting industrial diver‑
sification, structural change, spatial rejuvenation and urbanisation, border
development, regional integration and economic diplomacy in international
relations. Their number has grown from a mere 845 across 93 countries in
1997 (ILO 1998) to 5,383 SEZs across 147 countries in 2019. This rise of
SEZs is a major institutional feature of the modern era of globalisation.
1.2 SEZs: A Policy in Need of Evaluation
The proliferation of SEZs has attracted growing scholarly attention to their
relevance and ecacy, making it a popular research area in the academic
circles. A scrutiny of over 600 publications in various forms by the author
shows that this literature can be grouped under four broad headings: (i)
philosophies underlying SEZs, (ii) success factors underlying the SEZs in‑
cluding structural features, institutional designs and administrative and regu‑
latory regimes; (iii) economic impacts, both static and dynamic2; and (iv)
social and environmental eects. A wide range of qualitative and quantita‑
tive approaches have been adopted for the analysis: theoretical modelling,
cost‑benefit analysis, case studies, descriptive, analytical and empirical to
produce peer‑reviewed articles, discussion/working papers, review articles,
monographs, edited books, book reviews, blogs, mimeos, etc. The data are
sourced from both, the primary sources (interviews with various stakehold‑
ers, field‑based surveys, anecdotal observations, ethnography, legal docu‑
ments, and press releases) and secondary sources (data published by SEZ
authorities and international organisations, government reports and other
documents, night light data, blogs and other published works).
Notwithstanding, the literature is overwhelmingly dominated by descrip‑
tive case studies supported by patchy evidence from interviews, anecdotal
evidence or field surveys based on a small number of observations due to
non‑availability of adequate data (Aggarwal 2012, Cirera and Lakshman
2017, Engman etal. 2007, FIAS 2008, Kusago and Tzannatos 1998, Madani
1999, Milberg and Amengual 2008, UNCTAD2019, 2022). While the legal
documents such as SEZ Acts and regulations are accessible for most countries,
there is a general lack of good cross‑section or time series data even on basic
performance indicators such as exports, investment, FDI or employment gen‑
erated in the SEZs. Most of the impacts are dicult to quantify and so is the
investment climate in the SEZs. Recent years have seen a growing tendency to
use microdata (household surveys, firm‑level surveys, employment surveys or
night light data at the smallest administrative unit possible)and conduct a com‑
parative analysis of the regions with and without SEZs to draw inferences on
6 Introduction
their development outcomes based on quantitative tools such as regression,
dierence‑ in‑dierence, matching and weighting method. This has led to a spate
of studies that focus on cluster‑induced economic and social spillover eects
of SEZs in the region where they are located covering employment (Ciżkowicz
et al. 2017, Jensen 2018), economic growth (Frick and Rodríguez‑Pose
2019, Frick etal. 2018, Lu etal. 2019,Wang 2013), socio‑economic impacts
(Aggarwal and Kokko 2021, Brussevich 2020, Picarelli 2016), infrastructure
spillover (Alkon 2018), regional industrial growth (Alder etal. 2016, Hyun
and Ravi 2018, Wang 2013), productivity growth (Dubinina 2023, Görg and
Mulyukova 2022, Zheng etal. 2017) and human capital spillovers (Haus‑
mann etal. 2016, Lu 2022). The possibility of selection bias, flawed data and
poor matching between SEZ and non‑SEZ areas cannot be ruled out in these
studies.
With an increasing emphasis on impact evaluation of all policies, pro‑
grammes and projects in the contemporary world, there is a need of com‑
prehensive theory‑based systematic impact evaluations of SEZs which cover
both policy processes and outcomes. Rigorous impact evaluation designs
require an understanding of the context, mapping of the causal chain from
inputs to impacts, rigorous factual analysis and evaluation of impact using
credible counterfactuals (White 2009). To my knowledge, there is no such
analysis available in the literature. Further, the firm‑level studies are very
few and mostly limited to China due to a lack of data to measure the direct
impact of SEZs at the firm level (Zeng 2019). Typically, the SEZ companies
are subsidiaries of multi‑plant and/or multinational firms which are entirely
controlled by the remotely located parent firms while their financial state‑
ments are consolidated with those of the parent companies. It is therefore
dicult to get access to the data of the enterprises operating in the SEZs.
There is a possibility that the few studies that exist at the firm level are
subject to aggregate bias. This study addresses some of these gaps in the
literature.
1.3 Objectives of the Study
The central objective of this volume is to present a systematic theory‑based
impact assessment of the SEZ intervention on structural transformation, in‑
dustrial diversification and competitiveness with special reference to South
Asia. The study uses micro‑level analysis of the impact of SEZs on firms’ be‑
haviour and performance to draw inferences on the contribution of SEZs to
the macro‑level objectives of structural transformation and competitiveness.
One of the highlights of the study is the use of a counterfactual approach for
the evaluation of SEZs’ impacts on investment climate, firms’ competitive‑
ness, their technological activities and social and environment eects based
on the firm‑level data.
While anchoring the SEZs into the public policy literature, this study
uses the policy cycle approach and maps out the causal chain from inputs
Introduction 7
(agenda building) to output (policy designs) and to outcomes of SEZs
(intermediary eects) and their impact on the wider economy (ultimate
eects). It focuses on the first three stages of policy evaluation and develops a
theory‑based three‑stage evaluation process: (i) input assessment, (ii) output
assessment and (iii) outcome assessment (Figure1.1).
Input assessment. The policy cycle starts out with ‘agenda setting’ which
identifies the problems that need addressing. Policy evaluation at this stage
will
• Identify the key development challenges facing the regional economies.
• Assess the opportunities and challenges associated with the SEZ policy.
• Analyse the relevance of the SEZ policy in the region through a discussion
on the prevailing economic, social and political institutions.
Input
assessment
Diagnosis of
development
challenges
Assessing the role of
the policy in
addressing
development
challenges
Assessing the
rationale of choosing
SEZs as the policy
option
Output
assessment
Fit between the SEZ
policy goals and
overall development
strategy
Fit between the goals
and policy design
Outcome
assessment
Investment climate
Export
competitiveness
Technology and
innovation
Knowledge Linkages
Labour and
environmental effects
Figure1.1 Objectives of the study.
8 Introduction
Output assessment. The second stage of the policy cycle is ‘strategy building’
where the government decides what it wants to achieve and how. SEZs are
essentially a place‑based policy which operates through dierent structural
models, institutional and legal frameworks and incentive structures to achieve
dierent goals. A successful SEZ policy has synergies with the broader de‑
velopment strategy to ensure long‑term political support and resource com‑
mitments to zone development. The synergies between the SEZs and national
development strategy create a mutually reinforcing and self‑supporting sys‑
tem wherein the benefits of zones flow forward, backward and vertically, ex‑
panding capacity and improving the competitiveness of the wider economy.
Not only that but also the SEZ policy designs, i.e. the structural character‑
istics, legal and institutional frameworks and incentive structures should be
aligned with the policy objectives and strategies. As development takes place,
domestic conditions change and new challenges and opportunities emerge
in the economy. At the same time, there are shifts in policies, perceptions,
goals and positioning of the existing actors. The changing goals pose new de‑
mands, new goals and new institutional challenges. In line with these dynam‑
ics, policymakers must assign new roles, objectives and preferential policy
packages to SEZs or continuously upgrade the existing ones. In view of the
above, the output evaluation assesses the
• Evolution of the SEZs in South Asia through various phases of economic
development.
• Fit between policy designs and objectives.
Outcome assessment. The third stage in the policy cycle is the implementa‑
tion and monitoring of immediate outcomes. It is generally expected that the
primary objectives of the SEZs are to overcome the weaknesses of the local
investment climate to facilitate the host country’s insertion into GVCs and
drive trade, FDI inflows and technology transfers, which in turn generate
knowledge spillover eects in the wider economy and catalyse the process of
structural transformation and sustainable development. Following this line
of reasoning, the study identifies micro‑level outcome indicators for evalua‑
tion. The strategy is to evaluate the impact of SEZs on the investment climate
and firms’ behaviour and performance based on a counterfactual of what
the outcomes would have been in the absence of the SEZ intervention by ad‑
dressing five questions (Figure1.1).
• How eectively do the SEZs address the investment climate constraints?
• How eective have the SEZs been in driving the export competitiveness
of firms?
• What has been the contribution of SEZs to the innovative and technologi‑
cal capabilities of firms?
• Are SEZs firms more likely to have technological linkages with domestic
economies than their domestic counterparts?
Introduction 9
• How has the firms’ location in SEZs aected their contribution to human
and environmental capital?
The micro‑level outcomes are used to explain the macro‑level consequences
of SEZs viz. industrial diversification, growth and competitiveness in South
Asia. The input and output evaluations conducted in the volume employ
descriptive statistics and qualitative methods based on a wide array of data
sources. On the other hand, outcome evaluations use quasi‑experimental de‑
signs based on matching and weighting methods and are facilitated by the
World Bank Enterprise Surveys of 2013–2014 which incorporated a ques‑
tion on the firm location in EPZ/SEZ. The findings of the analysis are further
informed by a recent round of interactions that the author conducted with
policymakers and/or bureaucrats across all countries for which the analysis
is conducted.
1.4 South Asia and the SEZ Policy: A Brief Introduction
South Asia is a group of eight countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Pakistan,
Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan. It is the most densely populated
region of the world sharing 24% of the world population with 3.5% of the
world’s landarea and has unique features that are not necessarily shared
by other geographical regions of the world. Economically, the region is be‑
lieved to be faced with a development paradox (Ghani and Kharas 2010).
Since1991, it has been one of the fastest growing of the seven geographic
regions in which the World Bank classifies 189 member countries plus 28
other economies with populations of more than 30,000 each.3 Yet, it is still
home to one‑third of the world’s extreme poor4 (Table1.1) (the Poverty and
Shared Prosperity Report 2018). Not only that but also the region remains
next to Sub‑Saharan Africa in almost all indicators of development and has
been experiencing rapid debt build‑ups over the period since the financial
crisis of 2008. The present value of the external debt‑to‑total exports ra‑
tio5 which is an indicator of sustainability was above 100 in all the South
Asian countries except India in 2020. Bhutan with a ratio of 320; Sri Lanka,
279; Pakistan, 280; and Nepal, 276 remained the worst performers. In Sri
Lanka and Pakistan, the short‑term debt‑to‑reserve ratio also rose to 148%
and 81%, respectively. While Sri Lanka faced an economic meltdown of an
unprecedented scale in 2022, Pakistan faced its worst‑ever economic crisis
since independence and sought a massive bailout package from the IMF in
2023. Bangladesh also came under stress and received economic relief from
the Fund in the same year. These external vulnerabilities are likely to further
exacerbate poverty and inequality in the region. The World Bank sets a target
of reducing global extreme poverty toless than 3% by 2030 in which South
Asia is a critical stakeholder. Further, with almost one‑fourth of the world’s
population, South Asia has a critical role in the global achievement of the
SDGs (UNESCAP 2014).
10 Introduction
Table1.1 Demographic, social and economic characteristics: South Asia vs. other regions
Contribution
to world
population
(2019) (%)
Population
density
(2019)
Human
Development
Index
(2019)
Contribution
to GDP
(2019) (%)
Contribution to
trade of goods
and services
(2018) (%)
Average GDP
per capita
(USD 2010)
Contribution to
global poverty
at $1.90 a day
(2014) (%)
North America 4.77 20.09 0.878 23.86 13.38 55,331.4 0.94
Europe and
Central Asia 12.00 33.44 0.791 28.93 41.66 26,645.2 1.12
East Asia and
Pacific 30.50 95.02 0.747 29.39 28.58 10,652.5 6.95
Latin America
and Caribbean 8.42 31.96 0.766 7.31 5.80 9,590.2 3.06
MENA 5.95 39.99 0.705 4.12 5.81 7,660.3 1.17
South Asia 23.92 380.31 0.641 4.18 2.92 1,932.5 33.86
Sub‑Saharan 14.43 45.21 0.547 2.16 2.03 1,656.7 52.90
Source: Based on WDI Database.
Introduction 11
The key challenge that the region is facing is the lack of structural trans‑
formation. According to the World Development Indicators, 42% of the pop‑
ulation in the region is still trapped in agriculture which is contributing just
18% of GDP, pulling down total productivity and growth potential in the re‑
gion. Historically, the approach towards the use of SEZs as a key policy tool
of structural transformation remained cautious in the region. Of the eight
countries, four major economies (India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh)
adopted the SEZs (ocially named export processing zones or EPZs) during
the first global wave, which prevailed between the late 1960s and mid‑1980s.
The EPZs set up in this early phase of development were few in number,
small in size and isolated in terms of location and targeted processing activ‑
ity for exports. The second wave of SEZs that started in the mid‑1980s was
missed by the region. However, riding the third and explosive wave of SEZs
in the post‑2000 period, these economies also upgraded their EPZs: India (in
2005), Bangladesh (2010), Pakistan (2012) and Sri Lanka (2014). The four
smaller economies—Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives and Afghanistan—have also
initiated their SEZ programmes in the 2010s. Of them, Nepal and Maldives
introduced their respective SEZ Acts in 2013 and 2014 while Bhutan added
clauses providing for the creation of SEZs to its Business Infrastructure Pol‑
icy in 2010. But, the SEZs are yet to be operational except in Nepal where
only one SEZ (Bhairawaha) is operational and Bhutan where two (Pasakha
and Bjemina) are in operation. Maldives and Afghanistan have not been ac‑
tive in the establishment of economic zones. Despite the favourable change
in the policy approach, not much is known about the context, merits of the
content, economic contribution of the zones and their impacts on the re‑
gion. The lessons drawn from this analysis will have significant implications
for policymakers not only in South Asia but also across the world in their
endeavour to leverage the SEZs as a tool of industrial diversification and
structural transformation.
1.5 Organisation of the Study
The rest of the study is organised into three parts.
Part I comprises Chapters 2–6 which deal with ‘input assessment’ of the
SEZ policy. Chapters 2–4 identify and diagnose the key development chal‑
lenges facing the region whereas Chapters 5 and 6lay out theoretical foun‑
dations for the relevance of the SEZs in addressing them. While identifying
the key development challenges of South Asia, Chapter 2 revisits the South
Asian growth experience by reviewing the long‑term economic growth pat‑
terns of the region as a whole as well as each of the regional economies indi‑
vidually from 1960 to 2020 in a comparative framework using GDP growth
per capita at constant price as the indicator of growth, extracted from the
World Development Indicators. The objective is to explore the patterns of
growth acceleration that occurred in these economies and analyse whether
they have been rapid and sustained for a certain period of time. The analysis
12 Introduction
shows that growth accelerations did occur in the post‑1990 period in five
out of eight regional economies but they were episodic and could not initiate
a steady and sustained catch‑up growth process in the region. None of the
regional economies in South Asia could maintain high‑speed growth over
time. Chapter 3 draws on the basic tenets of the New Structural Econom‑
ics to explore whether growth has been accompanied by structural change
in South Asia with a focus on the post‑liberalisation period. It describes the
stylised facts underlying the growth‑structural transformation relationship
in developed countries and presents new insights on how these mechanisms
may be distorted under globalisation with dierent outcomes in dierent
countries. It then reviews the patterns of structural change over time in each
of the eight regional economies and explains country‑specific idiosyncra‑
sies in these patterns. Finally, it systematically unbundles the relationship
between economic growth and structural change at the aggregate level and
by sector using the World Bank’s Jobs and Structural Change Stata (JSCS)
Tool of decomposition developed by the World Bank and concludes that
despite being productivity‑enhancing, structural change is not conducive to
sustained growth. The relevant data for the analysis in Chapters 2 and 3 are
sourced from a number of databases including, the National Accounts data
of the UNSTAT, Structural Transformation data of UNU‑Wider, employment
data of (ILO) and GDP per capita data from World Development Indicators.
Chapter 4moves beyond the macroeconomic, economywide explanations of
structural transformation (as in the previous chapter) to sector‑ level struc‑
tures and systems to explore whether there has been structural upgrading
within the industrial sector. The focus is on the long‑term patterns of export
competitiveness. The chapter oers a systematic analysis of growth patterns
and secular trends in exports that span over 60 years from 1960 to 2020.
The main objective is to explore if economic liberalisation has been associ‑
ated with export acceleration, diversification and upgrading. The analysis
is conducted at the four‑digit SITC products level for all eight South Asian
countries with the support of relevant descriptive statistical tools, using the
data extracted from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) database.
The regional economies are found to have shown rather weak export perfor‑
mance which this chapter argues is intricately related to moderate growth
accompanied by slow structural change in a mutually reinforcing system.
Chapter 5 assesses the relevance of the SEZs in addressing the vicious trin‑
ity of moderate growth‑slow‑paced structural change‑weak competitiveness
in South Asia. The critical questions are, (i) how are the SEZs distinct from
other industrial hubs? (ii) what are the various underlying channels through
which they can catalyse the growth and structural transformation? and (iii)
how eective can be the SEZs in driving growth and economic transforma‑
tion? The chapter builds a two‑layered taxonomy of industrial hubs, traces
their evolution, explores the context in which these hubs arose and acquired
dierent characteristics and pulls various theoretical perspectives together to
describe how SEZs can contribute to growth and structural transformation
Introduction 13
beyond what other hubs or zones normally would do. Finally, Chapter 6 as‑
sesses the rationale of SEZs in South Asia It traces the dynamics of economic,
social and political institutions of South Asia by tracking the historical evo‑
lution of the region and shows how the historical factors have influenced
these institutions and how these are locked in an equilibrium which is growth
impeding and self‑perpetuating. It delves into international rankings of the
regional economies in various indices of business climate and competitive‑
ness and argues that there is a strong rationale for setting up eective SEZs
in these countries for smart institutional reforms.
Part II. Following the conceptual framework presented in Figure1.1 that
serves as the connective tissue for structuring this study, Part II evaluates the
policy design at two levels. The first is the evaluation at the systemic level
to gauge if the policy is rooted in the development challenges, the broader
policy goals and the macroeconomic realities of the economy; responds to the
changing macroeconomic realities; and is characterised by strong political
support. The second is at the design level where the focus is on design ele‑
ments, and the key objective is to assess the alignment between policy goals
and policy designs The former is the focus of Chapters 7–10 and the latter
is assessed in Chapter 11. Chapters 7–10 assess the alignment between the
broader development goals and SEZs in four countries which have a long
experience in SEZs: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, by dedicat‑
ing each country a separate chapter. The objective is to dig into the historical
evolution of economic zones and SEZs in particular and assess how their
structural, spatial, functional and administrative dimensions evolved over
time with the changing political and macroeconomic contexts in which they
are situated. For each country, the economic development phases are identi‑
fied on the basis of the changes in the government‑led development regime,
and the evolution of SEZs is seen through the prism of broader economic
strategies and development goals. Chapter 11 investigates the alignment be‑
tween the policy objectives and policy design in a comparative framework.
While assessing the policy design the analysis covers all three elements of
the policy: (i) the structural designs of SEZs, (ii) the institutional and legal
frameworks surrounding them and (iii) the incentive structure. The analysis
in this part is based on an enormous range of sources, including nationally
and internationally published data and studies; development plan documents
of the regional countries since the 1960s; texts of the relevant acts, decrees
and regulations; government reports and press releases; academic and news
articles; blogs and books; and websites of investment promotion agencies. It
is further enriched by observations made in formal interactions with govern‑
ment ocials.
Part III is devoted to the outcome assessment of SEZs in three of the four
major economies for which data are available: Bangladesh, India and Paki‑
stan, using counterfactual analysis. While Chapter 12 assesses how successful
the SEZs have been in oering a better investment climate than what is avail‑
able to firms outside of them in the selected countries, Chapter 13 explores
14 Introduction
the export competitiveness of firms within and outside SEZs in a comparative
framework using a counterfactual. Chapters 14 and 15 focus on the dier‑
ential role of SEZ firms in investing in innovations, R&D and skill develop‑
ment activities and their technological linkages with the rest of the economy.
Chapter 16 then investigates the labour and environment standards in the
zones. While doing this, it also reviews the legal regimes for labour and envi‑
ronment in the zones. The analyses are based on quasi‑experimental designs,
both weighting and matching methods and draw on the World Bank Enter‑
prise Survey data for 2013–2014 for South Asia which provide information
on whether a firm is located in the SEZs or outside. The micro‑level evalu‑
ations are set out to draw macro‑level inferences on the impact of SEZs on
structural change competitiveness and growth.
Finally, Chapter 17 brings together the findings of all three stages of policy
evaluation and discusses whether, why and how the policy has the potential
to succeed in driving economic transformation in the host economies.
Notes
1 More specifically, the use of services as inputs (financial, information technology,
labour, etc.) and support (R&D, design, logistics, marketing and sales) is referred
to as servicification, while the sales of services which are bundled with goods are
servitization of manufacturing (Vandermerwe and Rada 1988).
2 Economic eects cover both static and dynamic eects. The former comprises the
SEZ eects on exports, FDI, employment and trade balance. Dynamic eects may
include promoting technology, skill transfers and backward linkages with the host
economy.
3 America, Europe and Central Asia, North Africa and Middle East, Latin America,
east Asia and Pacific, South Asia and Sub‑Saharan Africa.
4 The number of extreme poor in South Asia dropped to 216million people in 2015,
compared to half a billion in 1990.
5 Present value of debt is the sum of short‑term external debt plus the discounted
sum of total debt service payments due on public, publicly guaranteed and private
nonguaranteed long‑term external debt over the life of existing loans. This calcu‑
lation assumes that the PV of loans with a negative grant element is equal to the
nominal value of the loan. The exports’ denominator is a three‑year average.
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